Risk of genetic maladaptation due to climate change in three major European tree species

Tree populations usually show adaptations to their local environments as a result of natural selection. As climates change, populations can become locally maladapted and decline in fitness. Evaluating the expected degree of genetic maladaptation due to climate change will allow forest managers to assess forest vulnerability, and develop strategies to preserve forest health and productivity. We studied potential genetic maladaptation to future climates in three major European tree species, Norway spruce (Picea abies), silver fir (Abies alba), and European beech (Fagus sylvatica). A common garden experiment was conducted to evaluate the quantitative genetic variation in growth and phenology of seedlings from 77 to 92 native populations of each species from across Switzerland. We used multivariate genecological models to associate population variation with past seed source climates, and to estimate relative risk of maladaptation to current and future climates based on key phenotypic traits and three regional climate projections within the A1B scenario. Current risks from climate change were similar to average risks from current seed transfer practices. For all three climate models, future risks increased in spruce and beech until the end of the century, but remained low in fir. Largest average risks associated with climate projections for the period 2061–2090 were found for spruce seedling height (0.64), and for beech bud break and leaf senescence (0.52 and 0.46). Future risks for spruce were high across Switzerland. However, areas of high risk were also found in drought‐prone regions for beech and in the southern Alps for fir. Genetic maladaptation to future climates is likely to become a problem for spruce and beech by the end of this century, but probably not for fir. Consequently, forest management strategies should be adjusted in the study area for spruce and beech to maintain productive and healthy forests in the future.     

Climate‐related genetic variation in drought‐resistance of Douglas‐fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii)

There is a general assumption that intraspecific populations originating from relatively arid climates will be better adapted to cope with the expected increase in drought from climate change. For ecologically and economically important species, more comprehensive, genecological studies that utilize large distributions of populations and direct measures of traits associated with drought‐resistance are needed to empirically support this assumption because of the implications for the natural or assisted regeneration of species. We conducted a space‐for‐time substitution, common garden experiment with 35 populations of coast Douglas‐fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. menziesii) growing at three test sites with distinct summer temperature and precipitation (referred to as ‘cool/moist’, ‘moderate’, or ‘warm/dry’) to test the hypotheses that (i) there is large genetic variation among populations and regions in traits associated with drought‐resistance, (ii) the patterns of genetic variation are related to the native source‐climate of each population, in particular with summer temperature and precipitation, (iii) the differences among populations and relationships with climate are stronger at the warm/dry test site owing to greater expression of drought‐resistance traits (i.e., a genotype × environment interaction). During midsummer 2012, we measured the rate of water loss after stomatal closure (transpiration_min), water deficit (% below turgid saturation), and specific leaf area (SLA, cm² g^?1) on new growth of sapling branches. There was significant genetic variation in all plant traits, with populations originating from warmer and drier climates having greater drought‐resistance (i.e., lower transpiration_min, water deficit and SLA), but these trends were most clearly expressed only at the warm/dry test site. Contrary to expectations, populations from cooler climates also had greater drought‐resistance across all test sites. Multiple regression analysis indicated that Douglas‐fir populations from regions with relatively cool winters and arid summers may be most adapted to cope with drought conditions that are expected in the future.     

A bridge too far: cold and pathogen constraints to assisted migration of riparian forests

Assisted migration of warm‐adapted genotypes to currently cooler climates may reduce maladaptation from future climate change. Few assisted migration trials have considered limitations of the cooler climates and pathogens currently present at transplant sites. This is especially important to consider in riparian ecosystems that are priority targets for restoration in the western United States as they harbor diverse communities. In an effort to validate assisted migration as an effective strategy for mediating the negative impacts of climate change, we used a provenance trial with replicated genotypes from 19 populations of the foundation riparian tree species, Fremont cottonwood (Populus fremontii), transplanted to a cold site to test for genetic variation in growth, mortality, and resistance to shoot blight fungi (Venturia sp.). Populations from cool sites had up to 4 times faster growth, 3 times higher survival, and 8 times higher resistance to Venturia than populations from warm sites, providing evidence of local adaptation to both climate and pathogenic fungi. Budburst phenology and shoot blight were correlated with frost damage, subsequent shrub‐form architecture, and mortality. While climate change models predict 6°C increases, plants transferred distances of 6°C at this time would not perform well; an intermediate transfer distance of less than 3°C would avoid maladaptation to the current environment during assisted migration. Thus, multiple and intermediate transfer phases to supplement local genetic variation will likely be necessary for effective assisted migration to accommodate current environments and large changes in climate.     

Climate-related trends in sapwood biophysical properties in two conifers: avoidance of hydraulic dysfunction through coordinated adjustments in xylem efficiency, safety and capacitance

In the Pacific north‐west, the Cascade Mountain Range blocks much of the precipitation and maritime influence of the Pacific Ocean, resulting in distinct climates east and west of the mountains. The current study aimed to investigate relationships between water storage and transport properties in populations of Douglas‐fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) and ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) adapted to both climates. Sapwood thickness, capacitance, vulnerability to embolism, and axial and radial conductivity were measured on samples collected from trunks of mature trees. The sapwood of ponderosa pine was three to four times thicker than Douglas‐fir. Radial conductivity was higher in west‐side populations of both species, but axial conductivity was higher in the east‐side populations and in Douglas‐fir. Eastern populations of both species had sapwood that was more vulnerable to embolism than west‐side populations. Sapwood capacitance was similar between species, but was about twice as great in east‐side populations (580 kg m^?3 MPa^?1) as in west‐side populations (274 kg m^?3 MPa^?1). Capacitance was positively correlated with both mean embolism pressure and axial conductivity across species and populations, suggesting that coordinated adjustments in xylem efficiency, safety and water storage capacity may serve to avoid embolism along a gradient of increasing aridity.     

Effects of changing climate on aquatic habitat and connectivity for remnant populations of a wide‐ranging frog species in an arid landscape

Amphibian species persisting in isolated streams and wetlands in desert environments can be susceptible to low connectivity, genetic isolation, and climate changes. We evaluated the past (1900–1930), recent (1981–2010), and future (2071–2100) climate suitability of the arid Great Basin (USA) for the Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris) and assessed whether changes in surface water may affect connectivity for remaining populations. We developed a predictive model of current climate suitability and used it to predict the historic and future distribution of suitable climates. We then modeled changes in surface water availability at each time period. Finally, we quantified connectivity among existing populations on the basis of hydrology and correlated it with interpopulation genetic distance. We found that the area of the Great Basin with suitable climate conditions has declined by approximately 49% over the last century and will likely continue to decline under future climate scenarios. Climate conditions at currently occupied locations have been relatively stable over the last century, which may explain persistence at these sites. However, future climates at these currently occupied locations are predicted to become warmer throughout the year and drier during the frog's activity period (May – September). Fall and winter precipitation may increase, but as rain instead of snow. Earlier runoff and lower summer base flows may reduce connectivity between neighboring populations, which is already limited. Many of these changes could have negative effects on remaining populations over the next 50–80 years, but milder winters, longer growing seasons, and wetter falls might positively affect survival and dispersal. Collectively, however, seasonal shifts in temperature, precipitation, and stream flow patterns could reduce habitat suitability and connectivity for frogs and possibly other aquatic species inhabiting streams in this arid region.     

Intervarietal and intravarietal genetic structure in Douglas‐fir: nuclear SSRs bring novel insights into past population demographic processes,phylogeography, and intervarietal hybridization

Douglas‐fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) is one of numerous wide‐range forest tree species represented by subspecies/varieties, which hybridize in contact zones. This study examined the genetic structure of this North American conifer and its two hybridizing varieties, coastal and Rocky Mountain, at intervarietal and intravarietal level. The genetic structure was subsequently associated with the Pleistocene refugial history, postglacial migration and intervarietal hybridization/introgression. Thirty‐eight populations from the USA and Canada were genotyped for 13 nuclear SSRs and analyzed with simulations and traditional population genetic structuring methods. Eight genetic clusters were identified. The coastal clusters embodied five refugial populations originating from five distinct refugia. Four coastal refugial populations, three from California and one from western Canada, diverged during the Pleistocene (56.9–40.1 ka). The three Rocky Mountain clusters reflected distinct refugial populations of three glacial refugia. For Canada, ice covered during the Last Glacial Maximum, we present the following three findings. (1) One refugial population of each variety was revealed in the north of the distribution range. Additional research including paleodata is required to support and determine whether both northern populations originated from cryptic refugia situated south or north of the ice‐covered area. (2) An interplay between intravarietal gene flow of different refugial populations and intervarietal gene flow by hybridization and introgression was identified. (3) The Canadian hybrid zone displayed predominantly introgressants of the Rocky Mountain into the coastal variety. This study provides new insights into the complex Quaternary dynamics of this conifer essential for understanding its evolution (outside and inside the native range), adaptation to future climates and for forest management.     

Will phenotypic plasticity affecting flowering phenology keep pace with climate change?

Rising temperatures have begun to shift flowering time, but it is unclear whether phenotypic plasticity can accommodate projected temperature change for this century. Evaluating clines in phenological traits and the extent and variation in plasticity can provide key information on assessing risk of maladaptation and developing strategies to mitigate climate change. In this study, flower phenology was examined in 52 populations of big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) growing in three common gardens. Flowering date (anthesis) varied 91 days from late July to late November among gardens. Mixed‐effects modeling explained 79% of variation in flowering date, of which 46% could be assigned to plasticity and genetic variation in plasticity and 33% to genetics (conditional R² = 0.79, marginal R² = 0.33). Two environmental variables that explained the genetic variation were photoperiod and the onset of spring, the Julian date of accumulating degree‐days >5 °C reaching 100. The genetic variation was mapped for contemporary and future climates (decades 2060 and 2090), showing flower date change varies considerably across the landscape. Plasticity was estimated to accommodate, on average, a ±13‐day change in flowering date. However, the examination of genetic variation in plasticity suggests that the magnitude of plasticity could be affected by variation in the sensitivity to photoperiod and temperature. In a warmer common garden, lower‐latitude populations have greater plasticity (+16 days) compared to higher‐latitude populations (+10 days). Mapped climatypes of flowering date for contemporary and future climates illustrate the wide breadth of plasticity and large geographic overlap. Our research highlights the importance of integrating information on genetic variation, phenotypic plasticity and climatic niche modeling to evaluate plant responses and elucidate vulnerabilities to climate change.     

MORPHOLOGICAL VARIATION AND DEVELOPMENT IN RAMALINA MENZIESII TAYL.

The common west coast lichen Ramalina menziesii Tayl. has been studied in an attempt to determine the extent of morphological variation and to understand the factors that determine its form. An analysis of a typical population near Santa Barbara, CA, suggested that intrapopulation variation in form was controlled primarily by size increase during growth. Test populations obtained from latitudes as far north as 54°N and as far south as 28°N had values for various morphological characters that were very similar to the Santa Barbara population. It is concluded that variation in form may be the result of differential rates of growth and possibly varying frequency of environmental stresses which disintegrate the thallus.     

Climate change disrupts local adaptation and favours upslope migration

Contemporary climate change is proceeding at an unprecedented rate. The question remains whether populations adapted to historical conditions can persist under rapid environmental change. We tested whether climate change will disrupt local adaptation and reduce population growth rates using the perennial plant Boechera stricta (Brassicaceae). In a large‐scale field experiment conducted over five years, we exposed > 106 000 transplants to historical, current, or future climates and quantified fitness components. Low‐elevation populations outperformed local populations under simulated climate change (snow removal) across all five experimental gardens. Local maladaptation also emerged in control treatments, but it was less pronounced than under snow removal. We recovered local adaptation under snow addition treatments, which reflect historical conditions. Our results revealed that low elevation populations risk rapid decline, whereas upslope migration could enable population persistence and expansion at higher elevation locales. Local adaptation to historical conditions could increase vulnerability to climate change, even for geographically widespread species.     

Habitat Restoration and Climate Change: Dealing with Climate Variability,Incomplete Data,and Management Decisions with Tree Translocations

Restoration programs need to increasingly address both the restitution of biodiversity and ecosystem services and the preparation of habitats for future climate change. One option to adapt habitats to climate change in the temperate zone is the translocation of southern populations to compensate for climate change effects—an option known as assisted migration (AM). Although AM is widely criticized for endangered species, forest managers are more confident that tree populations can be translocated with success because of previous experiences within native ranges. Here, we contend that translocations of tree populations are also subject to uncertainties, and we extract lessons for future programs of AM within species ranges from a well‐documented failed case of population translocation of Pinus pinaster Ait. in Europe. The failure of these translocations originated from the unawareness of several unpredictable ecological and social events: cryptic maladaptation of the introduced populations, underestimation of climate variability differences between the source and target sites, and complexity in the management schemes, postponing decisions that could have been undertaken earlier. Under the no‐analog conditions that are expected with climate change, management decisions need to be made with incomplete data, implying that a certain degree of maladaptation should always be expected when restoring plant populations from local or external seed sources .     

Losing your edge: climate change and the conservation value of range‐edge populations

Populations occurring at species' range edges can be locally adapted to unique environmental conditions. From a species' perspective, range‐edge environments generally have higher severity and frequency of extreme climatic events relative to the range core. Under future climates, extreme climatic events are predicted to become increasingly important in defining species' distributions. Therefore, range‐edge genotypes that are better adapted to extreme climates relative to core populations may be essential to species' persistence during periods of rapid climate change. We use relatively simple conceptual models to highlight the importance of locally adapted range‐edge populations (leading and trailing edges) for determining the ability of species to persist under future climates. Using trees as an example, we show how locally adapted populations at species' range edges may expand under future climate change and become more common relative to range‐core populations. We also highlight how large‐scale habitat destruction occurring in some geographic areas where many species range edge converge, such as biome boundaries and ecotones (e.g., the arc of deforestation along the rainforest‐cerrado ecotone in the southern Amazonia), can have major implications for global biodiversity. As climate changes, range‐edge populations will play key roles in helping species to maintain or expand their geographic distributions. The loss of these locally adapted range‐edge populations through anthropogenic disturbance is therefore hypothesized to reduce the ability of species to persist in the face of rapid future climate change.     

Impact of climate change on cold hardiness of Douglas‐fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii): environmental and genetic considerations

The success of conifers over much of the world's terrestrial surface is largely attributable to their tolerance to cold stress (i.e., cold hardiness). Due to an increase in climate variability, climate change may reduce conifer cold hardiness, which in turn could impact ecosystem functioning and productivity in conifer‐dominated forests. The expression of cold hardiness is a product of environmental cues (E), genetic differentiation (G), and their interaction (G × E), although few studies have considered all components together. To better understand and manage for the impacts of climate change on conifer cold hardiness, we conducted a common garden experiment replicated in three test environments (cool, moderate, and warm) using 35 populations of coast Douglas‐fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. menziesii) to test the hypotheses: (i) cool‐temperature cues in fall are necessary to trigger cold hardening, (ii) there is large genetic variation among populations in cold hardiness that can be predicted from seed‐source climate variables, (iii) observed differences among populations in cold hardiness in situ are dependent on effective environmental cues, and (iv) movement of seed sources from warmer to cooler climates will increase risk to cold injury. During fall 2012, we visually assessed cold damage of bud, needle, and stem tissues following artificial freeze tests. Cool‐temperature cues (e.g., degree hours below 2 °C) at the test sites were associated with cold hardening, which were minimal at the moderate test site owing to mild fall temperatures. Populations differed 3‐fold in cold hardiness, with winter minimum temperatures and fall frost dates as strong seed‐source climate predictors of cold hardiness, and with summer temperatures and aridity as secondary predictors. Seed‐source movement resulted in only modest increases in cold damage. Our findings indicate that increased fall temperatures delay cold hardening, warmer/drier summers confer a degree of cold hardiness, and seed‐source movement from warmer to cooler climates may be a viable option for adapting coniferous forest to future climate.     

Invasion hotspots for non‐native plants in Australia under current and future climates

We apply the concept of biodiversity hotspot analysis (the identification of biogeographical regions of high species diversity) to identify invasion hotspots – areas of potentially suitable climate for multiple non‐native plant species – in Australia under current and future climates. We used the species distribution model Maxent to model climate suitability surfaces for 72 taxa, recognized as ‘Weeds of National Significance’ (WoNS) in Australia, under current and projected climate for 2020 and 2050. Current climate suitability layers were summed across all 72 species, and we observed two regions of high climatic suitability corresponding to the top 25th percentile of combined climatic suitability values across Australia. We defined these as potential invasion hotspots. Areas of climatic suitability equivalent to the hotspot regions were identified in the composite maps for 2020 and 2050, to track spatial changes in the hotspots over the two time steps. Two potential invasion hotspot regions were identified under current and projected climates: the south west corner of Western Australia (SW), and south eastern Australia (SE). Herbarium data confirmed the presence of 73% and 99% of those species predicted to be in each hotspot respectively, suggesting that the SE has greater invasion potential. The area of both hotspots was predicted to retract southward and towards the coast under future climate scenarios, reducing in size by 81% (SW) and 71% (SE) by 2050. This reduction was driven by the dominance of southern temperate invasive plant species in the WoNS list (47 of the 72), of which 44 were predicted to experience reductions in their bioclimatic range by 2050. While climate is likely to become less suitable for the majority of WoNS in the future, potential invasion hotspots based on climate suitability are likely to remain in the far south of eastern Australia, and in the far south west of Western Australia by 2050.     

Climate of origin affects tick (Ixodes ricinus) host-seeking behavior in response to temperature: implications for resilience to climate change?

Climate warming is changing distributions and phenologies of many organisms and may also impact on vectors of disease-causing pathogens. In Europe, the tick Ixodes ricinus is the primary vector of medically important pathogens (e.g., Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato, the causative agent of Lyme borreliosis). How might climate change affect I. ricinus host-seeking behavior (questing)? We hypothesize that, in order to maximize survival, I. ricinus have adapted their questing in response to temperature in accordance with local climates. We predicted that ticks from cooler climates quest at cooler temperatures than those from warmer climates. This would suggest that I. ricinus can adapt and therefore have the potential to be resilient to climate change. I. ricinus were collected from a cline of climates using a latitudinal gradient (northeast Scotland, North Wales, South England, and central France). Under laboratory conditions, ticks were subjected to temperature increases of 1°C per day, from 6 to 15°C. The proportion of ticks questing was recorded five times per temperature (i.e., per day). The theoretical potential to quest was then estimated for each population over the year for future climate change projections. As predicted, more ticks from cooler climates quested at lower temperatures than did ticks from warmer climates. The proportion of ticks questing was strongly associated with key climate parameters from each location. Our projections, based on temperature alone, suggested that populations could advance their activity season by a month under climate change, which has implications for exposure periods of hosts to tick-borne pathogens. Our findings suggest that I. ricinus have adapted their behavior in response to climate, implying some potential to adapt to climate change. Predictive models of I. ricinus dynamics and disease risk over continental scales would benefit from knowledge of these differences between populations.     

Less favourable climates constrain demographic strategies in plants

Correlative species distribution models are based on the observed relationship between species’ occurrence and macroclimate or other environmental variables. In climates predicted less favourable populations are expected to decline, and in favourable climates they are expected to persist. However, little comparative empirical support exists for a relationship between predicted climate suitability and population performance. We found that the performance of 93 populations of 34 plant species worldwide – as measured by in situ population growth rate, its temporal variation and extinction risk – was not correlated with climate suitability. However, correlations of demographic processes underpinning population performance with climate suitability indicated both resistance and vulnerability pathways of population responses to climate: in less suitable climates, plants experienced greater retrogression (resistance pathway) and greater variability in some demographic rates (vulnerability pathway). While a range of demographic strategies occur within species’ climatic niches, demographic strategies are more constrained in climates predicted to be less suitable.     

High levels of genetic diversity in marginal populations of the marsh orchid Dactylorhiza majalis subsp. majalis

Because of harsh conditions, suboptimal habitat quality and poor connectivity to other populations, plant populations at the margin of a distribution are expected to be less genetically diverse, but to be more divergent from each other than populations in the centre of a distribution. In northern Europe, northern marginal populations may also be younger than populations further to the south, and may have had less time to accumulate genetic diversity by mutation and gene flow. However, orchids have very small seeds, which are easily dispersed long distances by wind, and orchids are therefore expected to show less differentiation between marginal and central populations than other groups of seed plants. Here, we analysed whether Scandinavian populations of the tetraploid marsh orchid Dactylorhiza majalis subsp. majalis differ from central European populations in genetic diversity patterns. A total of 220 plants from eight central European and ten Scandinavian populations was examined for variation at five nuclear microsatellite loci, nuclear ITS and 13 polymorphic sites in noncoding regions of the plastid genome. The total genetic diversity was slightly lower in Scandinavia than in central Europe, both in plastid and nuclear markers, but the differences were small. Also, the Scandinavian populations were less diverse and somewhat more strongly differentiated from each other than the central European ones. Dactylorhiza majalis subsp. majalis has apparently colonized Scandinavia on multiple independent occasions and from different source areas in the south. Seed flow between Scandinavian populations has still not fully erased the patterns imprinted by early colonization. Our results suggest that marginal populations of orchids may be as important as central ones in preserving genetic diversity through Pleistocene glacial cycles. We also predict that orchids with their light seeds are better adapted than many other plants to respond to future climate changes by dispersing into new suitable areas.     

Incorporating population-level variation in thermal performance into predictions of geographic range shifts

Determining how species' geographic ranges are governed by current climates and how they will respond to rapid climatic change poses a major biological challenge. Geographic ranges are often spatially fragmented and composed of genetically differentiated populations that are locally adapted to different thermal regimes. Tradeoffs between different aspects of thermal performance, such as between tolerance to high temperature and tolerance to low temperature or between maximal performance and breadth of performance, suggest that the performance of a given population will be a subset of that of the species. Therefore, species-level projections of distribution might overestimate the species' ability to persist at any given location. However, current approaches to modeling distributions often do not consider variation among populations. Here, we estimated genetically-based differences in thermal performance curves for growth among 12 populations of the scarlet monkeyflower, Mimulus cardinalis, a perennial herb of western North America. We inferred the maximum relative growth rate (RGR(max)), temperature optimum (T(opt)), and temperature breadth (T(breadth)) for each population. We used these data to test for tradeoffs in thermal performance, generate mechanistic population-level projections of distribution under current and future climates, and examine how variation in aspects of thermal performance influences forecasts of range shifts. Populations differed significantly in RGR(max) and had variable, but overlapping, estimates of T(opt) and T(breadth). T(opt) declined with latitude and increased with temperature of origin, consistent with tradeoffs between performances at low temperatures versus those at high temperatures. Further, T(breadth) was negatively related to RGR(max), as expected for a specialist-generalist tradeoff. Parameters of the thermal performance curve influenced properties of projected distributions. For both current and future climates, T(opt) was negatively related to latitudinal position, while T(breadth) was positively related to projected range size. The magnitude and direction of range shifts also varied with T(opt) and T(breadth), but sometimes in unexpected ways. For example, the fraction of habitat remaining suitable increased with T(opt) but decreased with T(breadth). Northern limits of all populations were projected to shift north, but the magnitude of shift decreased with T(opt) and increased with T(breadth). Median latitude was projected to shift north for populations with high T(breadth) and low T(opt), but south for populations with low T(breadth) and high T(opt). Distributions inferred by integrating population-level projections did not differ from a species-level projection that ignored variation among populations. However, the species-level approach masked the potential array of divergent responses by populations that might lead to genotypic sorting within the species' range. Thermal performance tradeoffs among populations within the species' range had important, but sometimes counterintuitive, effects on projected responses to climatic change.     

Northern richness and southern poverty: contrasting genetic footprints of glacial refugia in the relictual tree Sciadopitys verticillata (Coniferales: Sciadopityaceae)

Sciadopitys verticillata is amongst the most relictual of all plants, being the last living member of an ancient conifer lineage, the Sciadopityaceae, and is distributed in small and disjunct populations in high rainfall regions of Japan. Although mega‐fossils indicate the persistence of the species within Japan through the Pleistocene glacial–interglacial cycles, how the species withstood the colder and drier climates of the glacials is not well known. The present study utilized phylogeography and palaeodistribution modelling to test whether the species survived within pollen‐based coastal temperate forest glacial refugia or within previously unidentified refugia close to its current range. Sixteen chloroplast haplotypes were found that displayed significant geographical structuring. Unexpectedly, northern populations in central Honshu most distant from coastal refugia had the highest chloroplast diversity and were differentiated from the south, a legacy of glacial populations possibly in inland river valleys close to its current northern range. By contrast, populations near putative coastal refugia in southern Japan, harboured the lower chloroplast diversity and were dominated by a single haplotype. Fragment size polymorphism at a highly variable and homoplasious mononucleotide repeat region in the trnT‐trnL intergenic spacer reinforced the contrasting patterns of diversity observed between northern and southern populations. The divergent histories of northern and southern populations revealed in the present study will inform the management of this globally significant conifer. © 2012 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2012, 108 , 263–277.     

Whole range and regional‐based ecological niche models predict differing exposure to 21st century climate change in the key cool temperate rainforest tree southern beech (Nothofagus cunninghamii)

The warmer and drier climates projected for the mid‐ to late‐21st century may have particularly adverse impacts on the cool temperate rainforests of southeastern Australia. Southern beech (Nothofagus cunninghamii; Nothofagaceae), a dominant tree species in these forests, may be vulnerable to minor changes in its climate envelope, especially at the edge of the species range, with Holocene fossil evidence showing local extinction of populations in response to small climate changes. We modelled the stability of this species climate envelope using the maximum entropy algorithm implemented in Maxent and two thresholds of presence/absence by projecting the modern climate envelope onto four Global Circulation Models forecasted for two time periods (2050s and 2070s). The climate envelope, as estimated from the species present climatic range, is predicted to shrink by up to 49% by the 2050s and up to 64% by the 2070s. The greatest predicted reduction is in Victoria with 91–100% of its current range being climatically unsuitable by the 2070s. Climatically similar areas to the species present range are predicted to remain in mountainous areas of western Tasmania, the Northeast Highlands of Tasmania, and the Baw Baw Plateau in the Central Highlands of Victoria. However, region‐specific modelling approaches made very different predictions from the whole‐range based models, especially in the severity of the predicted decline for Victorian populations of N. cunninghamii which occur in much warmer climates than the rest of the species geographical range. This shows that, for widespread species that span a range of climate zones, the exposure of current populations to climate change may be better modelled using a regional based approach. How the species responds to climate change will depend on the species ability to respond to drier and warmer climates and the concomitant increase in fire intensity.     

Climate change shifts natural selection and the adaptive potential of the perennial forb Boechera stricta in the Rocky Mountains

Heritable genetic variation is necessary for populations to evolve in response to anthropogenic climate change. However, antagonistic genetic correlations among traits may constrain the rate of adaptation, even if substantial genetic variation exists. We examine potential genetic responses to selection by comparing multivariate genetic variance–covariances of traits and fitness (multivariate Robertson–Price identities) across different environments in a reciprocal transplant experiment of the forb Boechera stricta in the Rocky Mountains. By transplanting populations into four common gardens arrayed along an elevational gradient, and exposing populations to control and snow removal treatments, we simulated future and current climates and snowmelt regimes. Genetic variation in flowering and germination phenology declined in plants moved downslope to warmer, drier sites, suggesting that these traits may have a limited ability to evolve under future climates. Simulated climate change via snow removal altered the strength of selection on flowering traits, but we found little evidence that genetic correlations among traits are likely to affect the rate of adaptation to climate change. Overall, our results suggest that climate change may alter the evolutionary potential of B. stricta, but reduced expression of genetic variation may be a larger impediment to adaptation than constraints imposed by antagonistic genetic correlations.