Leading indicators of mosquito-borne disease elimination

Mosquito-borne diseases contribute significantly to the global disease burden. High-profile elimination campaigns are currently underway for many parasites, e.g., Plasmodium spp., the causal agent of malaria. Sustaining momentum near the end of elimination programs is often difficult to achieve and consequently quantitative tools that enable monitoring the effectiveness of elimination activities after the initial reduction of cases has occurred are needed. Documenting progress in vector-borne disease elimination is a potentially important application for the theory of critical transitions. Non-parametric approaches that are independent of model-fitting would advance infectious disease forecasting significantly. In this paper, we consider compartmental Ross-McDonald models that are slowly forced through a critical transition through gradually deployed control measures. We derive expressions for the behavior of candidate indicators, including the autocorrelation coefficient, variance, and coefficient of variation in the number of human cases during the approach to elimination. We conducted a simulation study to test the performance of each summary statistic as an early warning system of mosquito-borne disease elimination. Variance and coefficient of variation were highly predictive of elimination but autocorrelation performed poorly as an indicator in some control contexts. Our results suggest that tipping points (bifurcations) in mosquito-borne infectious disease systems may be foreshadowed by characteristic temporal patterns of disease prevalence.     

Mapping Risk of Malaria Transmission in Mainland Portugal Using a Mathematical Modelling Approach

Malaria is currently one of the world´s major health problems. About a half-million deaths are recorded every year. In Portugal, malaria cases were significantly high until the end of the 1950s but the disease was considered eliminated in 1973. In the past few years, endemic malaria cases have been recorded in some European countries. With the increasing human mobility from countries with endemic malaria to Portugal, there is concern about the resurgence of this disease in the country. Here, we model and map the risk of malaria transmission for mainland Portugal, considering 3 different scenarios of existing imported infections. This risk assessment resulted from entomological studies on An. atroparvus, the only known mosquito capable of transmitting malaria in the study area. We used the malariogenic potential (determined by receptivity, infectivity and vulnerability) applied over geospatial data sets to estimate spatial variation in malaria risk. The results suggest that the risk exists, and the hotspots are concentrated in the northeast region of the country and in the upper and lower Alentejo regions.     

Plasmodium falciparum transmission rate and selection for drug resistance: a vexed association or a key to successful control?

While malaria eradication campaigns once adopted a combination of vector control and chemotherapy to overcome the disease, today's opinion on the matter is equivocal. So what has changed? This paper reviews some of the confusing hypotheses on the relationship between Plasmodium falciparum transmission and levels of drug resistance. New field evidence showing variations of in vivo chloroquine resistance in relation to indoor residual spraying and natural endemicity patterns, is considered with a view to how these phenomena implicate on control.     

Strategies for malaria control in Colombia

Attempts at malaria eradication this century have been highly effective but early successes have not been sustained. This has been ascribed to the lack of community involvement in these campaigns. Colombia has put huge effort into malaria control on a number of fronts, from vaccine development to the evaluation of the integrated use of more traditional methods. William Rojas, Fernando Pe?aranda and Mouricio Echavarria describe a pilot programme for integrated malaria control in Colombia whose success they attribute to committed community participation.     

Plasmodium falciparum transmission rate and selection for drug resistance: a vexed association or a key to successful control?

While malaria eradication campaigns once adopted a combination of vector control and chemotherapy to overcome the disease, today's opinion on the matter is equivocal. So what has changed? This paper reviews some of the confusing hypotheses on the relationship between Plasmodium falciparum transmission and levels of drug resistance. New field evidence showing variations of in vivo chloroquine resistance in relation to indoor residual spraying and natural endemicity patterns, is considered with a view to how these phenomena implicate on control.     

Environmental Management for Malaria Control: Knowledge and Practices in Mvomero,Tanzania

Environmental conditions play an important role in the transmission of malaria; therefore, regulating these conditions can help to reduce disease burden. Environmental management practices for disease control can be implemented at the community level to complement other malaria control methods. This study assesses current knowledge and practices related to mosquito ecology and environmental management for malaria control in a rural, agricultural region of Tanzania. Household surveys were conducted with 408 randomly selected respondents from 10 villages and qualitative data were collected through focus group discussions and in-depth interviews. Results show that respondents are well aware of the links between mosquitoes, the environment, and malaria. Most respondents stated that cleaning the environment around the home, clearing vegetation around the home, or draining stagnant water can reduce mosquito populations, and 63% of respondents reported performing at least one of these techniques to protect themselves from malaria. It is clear that many respondents believe that these environmental management practices are effective malaria control methods, but the actual efficacy of these techniques for controlling populations of vectors or reducing malaria prevalence in the varying ecological habitats in Mvomero is unknown. Further research should be conducted to determine the effects of different environmental management practices on both mosquito populations and malaria transmission in this region, and increased participation in effective techniques should be promoted.     

Man, monkeys and malaria

Bizarre though it may now seem, in the last century a whole series of experiments was conducted that involved injecting fresh monkey blood into human volunteers or patients. The reasons, valid at the time, were either to treat neurosyphilis with a relatively benign simian malaria infection (so-called pyrogen therapy), or to establish which monkey malaria species were potential zoonotic reservoirs of infection that then may have interfered with malaria eradication campaigns. Although direct inoculation of fresh blood is the most effective way of retroviruses as well as malaria parasites crossing the species barrier, this hypothesis was never taken up or researched. Unlikely, but not disproved, it is important to remember some of the more hazardous experiments that were done in good faith, too long ago to be recorded on electronic databases.     

The elimination of fox rabies from Europe: determinants of success and lessons for the future

Despite perceived challenges to controlling an infectious disease in wildlife, oral rabies vaccination (ORV) of foxes has proved a remarkably successful tool and a prime example of a sophisticated strategy to eliminate disease from wildlife reservoirs. During the past three decades, the implementation of ORV programmes in 24 countries has led to the elimination of fox-mediated rabies from vast areas of Western and Central Europe. In this study, we evaluated the efficiency of 22 European ORV programmes between 1978 and 2010. During this period an area of almost 1.9 million km² was targeted at least once with vaccine baits, with control taking between 5 and 26 years depending upon the country. We examined factors influencing effort required both to control and eliminate fox rabies as well as cost-related issues of these programmes. The proportion of land area ever affected by rabies and an index capturing the size and overlap of successive ORV campaigns were identified as factors having statistically significant effects on the number of campaigns required to both control and eliminate rabies. Repeat comprehensive campaigns that are wholly overlapping much more rapidly eliminate infection and are less costly in the long term. Disproportionally greater effort is required in the final phase of an ORV programme, with a median of 11 additional campaigns required to eliminate disease once incidence has been reduced by 90 per cent. If successive ORV campaigns span the entire affected area, rabies will be eliminated more rapidly than if campaigns are implemented in a less comprehensive manner, therefore reducing ORV expenditure in the longer term. These findings should help improve the planning and implementation of ORV programmes, and facilitate future decision-making by veterinary authorities and policy-makers.     

The birth of the anti-malaria campaign in Spain during the first 30 years of the 20th century: scientific and social aspects

The relations between the scientific and the social domains in the particular case of malaria had developed at three levels. The first one operates around the transformation of malaria into an escapable disease and the combined efforts of parasitology and entomology are mixed with the growing development of the concept of social medicine. The second one deals with the rhythm and the content of the measures taken to fight the disease in each concerned country; in that case, very peculiar site-time coordinates ask precise questions. At the same level can be placed the differences in the campaigns led against malaria in colonies and in the mainland, differences that it would be misleading to approach on the sole side of social determinism. Finally the third level corresponds to the complexity of the relationships between the international and the local domains, as present from the birth of "Office International d'Hygiène de la Société des Nations" and the involvement of the Rockefeller Foundation where two strategic positions can be detected opposing people minoring problems and those seeking for eradication, who indeed were opponents at the level of the scientific direction, but also originate within the socio-professional boundary of the members of each group, respectively.     

The development of rabies in Tunisia from 1982 to 1986

The authors describe the epidemiology of rabies disease in Tunisia since 1982, the problem of reservoirs and vectors, the production of vaccine, the diagnosis and the treatment of the disease. They note that this disease is decreasing in the animals that have bitten, nevertheless the canine rabies remains an important problem of public health in the country.     

Malaria in India: Challenges and opportunities

India contributes about 70% of malaria in the South East Asian Region of WHO. Although annually India reports about two million cases and 1000 deaths attributable to malaria, there is an increasing trend in the proportion of Plasmodium falciparum as the agent. There exists heterogeneity and variability in the risk of malaria transmission between and within the states of the country as many ecotypes/paradigms of malaria have been recognized. The pattern of clinical presentation of severe malaria has also changed and while multi-organ failure is more frequently observed in falciparum malaria, there are reports of vivax malaria presenting with severe manifestations. The high burden populations are ethnic tribes living in the forested pockets of the states like Orissa, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and the North Eastern states which contribute bulk of morbidity and mortality due to malaria in the country. Drug resistance, insecticide resistance, lack of knowledge of actual disease burden along with new paradigms of malaria pose a challenge for malaria control in the country. Considering the existing gaps in reported and estimated morbidity and mortality, need for estimation of true burden of malaria has been stressed. Administrative, financial, technical and operational challenges faced by the national programme have been elucidated. Approaches and priorities that may be helpful in tackling serious issues confronting malaria programme have been outlined.     

The Rockefeller Foundation and the prevention of malaria in Corsica, 1923-1951: support given to the French parasitologist Emile Brumpt

The role of the International Health Board of the Rockefeller Foundation in campaigns for malaria control in many countries has clearly been documented extensively. In contrast, the involvement of the Rockefeller Foundation in the control of malaria in France has not been reported yet. The present paper describes the way in which the Rockefeller Foundation got involved, along with the parasitologist Emile Brumpt, in the anti-malaria campaigns in Corsica, France, between 1924 and 1951. We analyze the scientific and technological strategies used for that purpose and the manner in which the Rockefeller Foundation policy had influenced Brumpt's actions. The unusually long support of the Rockefeller Foundation to Emile Brumpt (1924-1948) and to research and teaching Parasitology in the Faculté de Médecine de Paris is also discussed.     

Malaria control: achievements, problems and strategies

Even if history has not always been the Magistra vitae, Cicero expected it to be, it should provide, as Baas said, a mirror in which to observe and compare the past and present in order to draw therefrom well-grounded conclusions for the future. Based on this belief, this paper aims to provide an overview of the foundations and development of malaria control policies during the XX century. It presents an analysis of the conflicting tendencies which shaped the development of these policies and which appear to have oscillated between calls for frontal attack in an all-out campaign and calls for sustainable gains, even if slow. It discusses the various approaches to the control of malaria, their achievements and their limitations, not only to serve as a background to understand better the foundations of current policies, but also to prevent that simplistic generalisations may again lead to exaggerated expectations and disillusion. The first part of the paper is devoted to the development of malaria control during the first half of the century, characterised by the ups and downs in the reliance on mosquito control as the control measure applicable everywhere. The proliferation of "man-made-malaria", which accompanied the push for economic development in most of the endemic countries, spurred the need for control interventions and, while great successes were obtained in many specific projects, the general campaigns proposed by the enthusiasts of vector control faced increasing difficulties in their practical implementation in the field. Important events, which may be considered representative of this period are, on the campaign approach, the success of Gorgas in the Panama Canal, but also the failure of the Mian Mir project in India; while on the developmental approach, the Italian and Dutch schools of malariology, the Tennessee Valley and the development of malaria sanitation, included the so called species sanitation. The projection of these developments to a global scale was steered by the Malaria Commission of the League of Nations and greatly supported by the Rockefeller Foundation. Perhaps the most important contribution of this period was the development of malaria epidemiology, including the study of the genesis of epidemics and their possible forecasting and prevention. Although the great effectiveness of DDT was perhaps the main determinant for proposing the global eradication of the disease in the 1950s, it was the confidence in the epidemiological knowledge and the prestige of malariology, which gave credibility to the proposal at the political level. The second part deals with the global malaria eradication campaign of the 1950s and 1960s. It recognises the enormous impact of the eradication effort in the consolidation of the control successes of the first half of the century, as well as its influence in the development of planning of health programmes. Nevertheless, it also stresses the negative influence that the failure to achieve its utopian expectations had on the general disappointment and slow progress of malaria control, which characterised the last third of the century. The paper then analyses the evolution of malaria control funding, which often appears out of tune with political statements. The fourth part is devoted to the search for realistic approaches to malaria control, leading to the adoption of the global malaria control strategy in Amsterdam in 1992, and the challenge, at the end of the century, to rally forces commensurate with the magnitude of the problem, while aiming at realistic objectives. After discussing the conflicting views on the relations between malaria and socio-economic development and the desirable integration of malaria control into sustainable development, the paper ends with some considerations on the perspectives of malaria control, as seen by the author in early 1998, just before the launching of the current Roll Back Malaria initiative by WHO.     

Epidemiological considerations for malaria reduction by transmission blocking vaccination

Outside of the temperate regions, malaria transmission continues throughout much of the world in a distribution which is not very different to that of one hundred years ago. However, with the notable exception of Africa sub Sahara, the morbidity and mortality due to malaria has generally been reduced to very low levels by comparison with earlier times. In a broad sense the malaria problem today falls into two distinct compartments, 1) how to deal with the remaining problem of malaria in the affected areas outside of sub Saharan Africa and 2) how to manage the, currently, much greater problem of malaria-related morbidity and mortality in Africa sub Sahara. Malaria control campaigns of the past have always placed great emphasis on reducing malaria inoculation rates in the affected populations. This may seem entirely logical, and is, indeed, an absolute requirement where eradication of malaria from an endemic area is the goal. There can, nevertheless, be dangers as well as benefits associated with reducing malaria inoculation rates in previously endemic populations. I discuss here the epidemiological issues which should be taken into account in this respect. I then examine the role that vaccination to reduce malaria inoculation rates in endemic populations--malaria transmission blocking vaccination--could play in malaria control.     

The economic benefits of malaria elimination: do they include increases in tourism?

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Policy makers have speculated that one of the economic benefits of malaria elimination includes increases in foreign direct investment, particularly tourism. METHODS: The study examines the empirical relationship between the demand for travel and malaria cases in two countries with large tourism industries around the time in which they carried out malaria-elimination campaigns. In Mauritius, this analysis examines historical yearly tourist arrivals and malaria cases from 1978-1999, accounting for the background secular trend of increasing international travel. In Dominican Republic, a country embarking upon malaria elimination, it employs a time-series analyses of the monthly, international, tourist arrivals from 1998-2010 to determine whether the timing of significant deviations in tourist arrivals coincides with malaria outbreaks. RESULTS: While naive relationships exist in both cases, the results show that the relationships between tourist arrival and malaria cases are relatively weak and statistically insignificant once secular confounders are accounted for. CONCLUSIONS: This suggests that any economic benefits from tourism that may be derived from actively pursuing elimination in countries that may have high tourism potential are likely to be small when measured at a national level. Rather, tourism benefits are likely to be experienced with greater impact in more concentrated tourist areas within countries, and future studies should seek to assess this relationship at a regional or local level.     

Epidemiology in the strategies for malaria control

A rapid overview is presented of the evolution of the main orientations of malaria control, since the discovery of mosquito transmission. Stated control objectives appear to have oscillated between expectations to eradicate the vector, or at least the disease, and more modest approaches to minimise the effects of the infection. High optimism was raised when a new control measure, or new combination of existing measures, appeared to be highly effective and was expected to have universal applicability. The implementation of large scale campaigns eventually found the limits of applicability of the proposed strategy and the exaggerated expectations soon gave way to disillusion and, eventually, to a revival of research. The longest and most impacting period of exaggerated expectations was the global malaria eradication campaign of the 1950s and 1960s, which completely disregarded the study of local epidemiology, considering that all it was needed was to know if an area was "malarious" or not. Research was practically abandoned and, even when reinstated after the recognised failure of the campaign, it has retained an almost exclusive orientation towards the development of control tools, drugs or eventually vaccines. One of the earliest victims of the eradication campaign was the study of epidemic malaria and its determinants in different epidemic prone areas. In spite of an extremely long period of disillusion, lasting for almost two decades, the reality of the malaria problem led WHO and member countries to agree on a global strategy of control, aiming at a realistic use of existing tools, to at least reduce or prevent mortality. An essential element of this strategy is the prevention or control of malaria epidemics and the selective use of vector control, both of which have to be based on a solid knowledge of local epidemiology, the study of which has to rejoin the path abandoned fifty years ago.     

Molecular surveillance and temporal monitoring of malaria parasites in focal Vietnamese provinces

In the past decade substantial reduction in malaria morbidity and mortality has been observed through well-implemented case management and vector control strategies. India has also achieved a significant reduction in malaria burden in 2018 and has committed to eliminate malaria by 2030. The Mandla Malaria Elimination Demonstration Project (MEDP) was started in 2017 in 1233 villages of District Mandla to demonstrate malaria elimination in a tribal district with hard-to-reach areas was possible using active and passive surveillance, case management, vector control, and targeted information, education and communication campaigns. An operational plan was developed to strengthen the existing surveillance and malaria elimination systems, through fortnightly active case detection to ensure that all cases including those that are introduced into the communities are rapidly identified and treated promptly. The plan also focused on the reduction of human-mosquito contact through the use of Long-Lasting Insecticial Nets (LLINs) and Indoor Residual Spray (IRS). The operational plan was modified in view of the present COVID-19 pandemic by creating systems of assistance for the local administration for COVID-related work while ensuring the operational integrity of malaria elimination efforts. The use of MEDP study design and operational plan, with its built-in management control systems, has yielded significant (91%) reduction of indigenous cases of malaria during the period from June 2017 to May 2020. The malaria positivity rate was 0.33% in 2017–18, 0.13% in 2018–19, and 0.06% in 2019–20. Mass screening revealed 0.18% malaria positivity in September–October 2018, followed by 0.06% in June 2019, and 0.03% in December 2019, and these were mostly asymptomatic cases in the community. The project has been able to sustain the gains of the past three years during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. This paper provides the study design and the operational plan for malaria elimination in a high-burden district of Central India, which presented difficulties of hard to reach areas, forest malaria, and complex epidemiology of urban and rural malaria. The lessons learned could be used for malaria elimination efforts in rest of the country and other parts of South Asia with comparable demography and epidemiology.     

Domestic Larval Control Practices and Malaria Prevalence among Under-Five Children in Burkina Faso

Introduction

Larval source management has contributed to malaria decline over the past years. However, little is known about the impact of larval control practices undertaken at the household level on malaria transmission.

Methods

The study was conducted in Kaya health district after the 2010 mass distribution of insecticide treated-nets and the initiation of malaria awareness campaigns in Burkina Faso. The aim was to (i) estimate the level of domestic larval control practices (cleaning of the house and its surroundings, eradication of larval sources, and elimination of hollow objects that might collect water); (ii) identify key determinants; and (iii) explore the structural relationships between these practices, participation in awareness-raising activities and mothers’ knowledge/attitudes/practices, and malaria prevalence among under-five children.

Results

Overall, 2004 households were surveyed and 1,705 under-five children were examined. Half of the mothers undertook at least one action to control larval proliferation. Mothers who had gone to school had better knowledge about malaria and were more likely to undertake domestic larval control practices. Living in highly exposed rural areas significantly decreased the odds of undertaking larval control actions. Mothers’ participation in malaria information sessions increased the adoption of vector control actions and bednet use. Malaria prevalence was statistically lower among children in households where mothers had undertaken at least one vector control action or used bed-nets. There was a 0.16 standard deviation decrease in malaria prevalence for every standard deviation increase in vector control practices. The effect of bednet use on malaria prevalence was of the same magnitude.

Conclusion

Cleaning the house and its surroundings, eradicating breeding sites, and eliminating hollow objects that might collect water play a substantial role in preventing malaria among under-five. There is a need for national malaria control programs to include or reinforce training activities for community health workers aimed at promoting domestic larval control practices.     

Opportunities, problems and perspectives for malaria control in sub-Saharan Africa

Environments conducive to high malaria transmission and widespread poverty are at the roots of the 'malaria giant', which affects 46 countries in Africa. The recent interest in and momentum of work on malaria, in endemic countries and the international community, is unprecedented and opens new perspectives for controlling the disease. Significant steps included: (i) the allocation of US$20 million by WHO for accelerated implementation of malaria control in 34 African countries in 1997-98; (ii) the Declaration on Malaria by the Heads of States of the Organization of African Unity and the establishment of the African Initiative for Malaria Control in 1997; (iii) the concomitant mobilisation of the research community in the Multilateral Initiative on Malaria; (iv) the G8 Summit in 1998 in Birmingham asking for higher commitment to malaria control, particularly in Africa; and (v) the Roll Back Malaria initiative set as a WHO priority project in 1998. However, experiences have proved the alarming 'resilience' of the malaria system in Africa, showing devastating consequences when malaria returns to the original levels after intensive control is interrupted. Effective malaria control in Africa requires long-term action, firmly rooted in the social development of the country.