Socioeconomic factors affecting first marriage and birth rates by sex and age in the total Japanese population.

The effects of a wide variety of social, economic and demographic factors on age-specific first marriage and live birth rates in 46 Japanese prefectures were analyzed using stepwise regression analysis for 1970 and again for 1975 after classification of those twenty-two factors by factor analysis. The principal results were as follows: (1) high employment (high income) and social mobility caused by industrialization had a strongly positive influence on the first marriage and birth rates for young females, (2) rural and urban residence factors had positive effects on the marriage and birth rates for young males and females, respectively, (3) old age factor had an inverse effect on the marriage rates for both males and females over a wide range of ages, and (4) young age factor promoted the birth rate for young and middle-aged females. The characteristics of the first marriage and live birth rates in Japan were discussed in the light of these findings.     

Socioeconomic factors affecting the longevity of the Japanese population: a study for 1980 and 1985.

The effects of urbanisation, low income and rejuvenation of the population on life expectancy at birth and at 20, 40 and 65 years of age for males and females in Japan were examined twice, in 1980 and 1985. For males, urbanisation was the major factor determining life expectancy at birth and at age 20 years, and low income was the key determinant of decreased life expectancy except at 65 years of age. For females high income was the factor significantly decreasing life expectancy at 65 years of age in 1980, and rejuvenation of the population inversely influenced life expectancy except at birth in 1985. Life expectancy for all age groups in 1985 was significantly longer than in 1980 for both males and females.     

The influence of larval density, food availability and habitat longevity on the life history and population growth rate of the midge Chironomus riparius

Despite long‐standing interest in the forms and mechanisms of density dependence, these are still imperfectly understood. However, in a constant environment an increase in density must reduce per capita resource availability, which in turn leads to reduced survival, fecundity and somatic growth rate. Here we report two population experiments examining the density dependent responses under controlled conditions of an important indicator species, Chironomus riparius. The first experiment was run for 35 weeks and was started at low density with replicate populations being fed three different rations. Increased ration reduced generation time and increased population growth rate (pgr) but had no effect on survival, fecundity and female body weight in the first generation. In the second generation there was a six‐fold increase in generation time, presumably due to the greatly reduced per capita resource availability as the estimated initial densities of the second generation were 300 times greater than the first. Juvenile survival to emergence, fecundity, adult body weight and pgr declined by 90%, 75%, 35% and 99%, respectively. These large between‐generation effects may have obscured the effects of the threefold variation in ration, as only survival to emergence significantly increased with ration in the second generation. These results suggest that some chironomid larvae survive a reduction in resource availability by growing more slowly. In the ephemeral habitats sometimes occupied by C. riparius, the effects of population density may depend crucially on the longevity of the environment. A second experiment was therefore performed to measure pgr from six different starting densities over an eight‐week period. The relationship between pgr and density was concave, viewed from above. At densities above 16 larvae per cm², less than 1% of the population emerged and no offspring were produced. Under the conditions of experiment 2 – an 8‐week habitat lifespan – carrying capacity was estimated as 8 larvae per cm².     

Mitochondrial whims: metabolic rate,longevity and the rate of molecular evolution

The evolutionary rate of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) is highly variable across lineages in animals, and particularly in mammals. This variation has been interpreted as reflecting variations in metabolic rate: mitochondrial respiratory activity would tend to generate mutagenic agents, thus increasing the mutation rate. Here we review recent evidence suggesting that a direct, mechanical effect of species metabolic rate on mtDNA evolutionary rate is unlikely. We suggest that natural selection could act to reduce the (somatic) mtDNA mutation rate in long-lived species, in agreement with the mitochondrial theory of ageing.     

Elective total hip replacement: incidence,emergency readmission rate,and postoperative mortality.

OBJECTIVES--To report the incidence of elective total hip replacement and postoperative mortality, emergency readmission rates, and the demographic factors associated with these rates in a large defined population. DESIGN--Analysis of linked, routine abstracts of hospital inpatient records and death certificates. SETTING--10 hospitals in six districts in Oxford Regional Health Authority covered by the Oxford record linkage study. SUBJECTS--Records for 11,607 total hip replacements performed electively in 1976-85. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Incidence of operation, postoperative mortality, relative mortality ratios, and incidence of emergency readmission. RESULTS--NHS operation rates increased over time from 43 to 58 operations/100,000 population. Variation in operation rates between districts reduced over time. Operation rates were on average 25% higher in women than men. There were 93 deaths (11/1000 operations) within 90 days of the operation and 208 emergency readmissions (28/1000 operations) within 28 days of discharge. Postoperative mortality and emergency readmission rates increased with age. No significant trend with time was found. Mortality in the 90 days after the operation was 2.5-fold higher (1.9 to 3.0) than in the rest of the first postoperative year. This represented an estimated excess of 6.5 (4.2 to 8.8) early postoperative deaths/1000 operations. Most deaths were ascribed to cardiovascular events. Thromboembolic disease was the commonest reason for emergency readmission. CONCLUSIONS--The pronounced increase in operations in districts with initially low rates suggests a trend towards greater equity in the local provision of NHS hip arthroplasty. The early postoperative clusters of deaths attributed to cardiovascular disease and of readmissions for thromboembolic disease suggest that there is scope for investigating ways of reducing the incidence of major adverse postoperative events.     

The correlation of the indices of animal longevity and mortality in stationary populations with a constant rate of mortality

Equations have been derived on the basis of general ratios of the numbers of different age groups of animals that allow to estimate the mortality coefficient in populations with stationary age structure and intensity of mortality that does not depend on age at their continuous and discontinuous replenishing by frequency of occurrence of individuals of the maximal age. The proposed method of estimation of mortality has been tested on models with different numbers of animals and age classes. The equation gives a non-biased estimate of mortality coefficient for populations with discontinuous replenishing with young individuals at very small sample sizes (less than 10 individuals).     

Birth-weight-specific infant and neonatal mortality: effects of heterogeneity in the birth cohort

Birth-weight-specific infant mortality is examined using a novel statistical procedure, parametric mixtures of logistic regressions. The results indicate that birth cohorts are composed of two or more subpopulations that are heterogeneous with respect to infant mortality. One subpopulation appears to account for the "normal" process of fetal development, while the other, which accounts for the majority of births at both low and high birth weights, may represent fetuses that were "disturbed" during development. Surprisingly, estimates of neonatal and infant mortality indicate that the "disturbed" subpopulation has lower birth-weight-specific mortality, although overall crude mortality rates are higher for this subpopulation. It is hypothesized that this is due to high rates of fetal loss among the "disturbed" subpopulation, resulting in a highly selected group at birth. The heterogeneity identified in the birth cohort could be responsible for recent decelerations in the decline in infant mortality, and might be the cause of unexplained ethnic differences in birth-weight-specific infant mortality. The novel statistical methodology developed here has broad application within human biology. In particular, it could be used in any context where parametric mixture modeling is applied, such as complex segregation analysis.     

The effect of urbanization on ant abundance and diversity: a temporal examination of factors affecting biodiversity

Numerous studies have examined the effect of urbanization on species richness and most studies implicate urbanization as the major cause of biodiversity loss. However, no study has identified an explicit connection between urbanization and biodiversity loss as the impact of urbanization is typically inferred indirectly by comparing species diversity along urban-rural gradients at a single time point. A different approach is to focus on the temporal rather than the spatial aspect and perform "before and after" studies where species diversity is cataloged over time in the same sites. The current study examined changes in ant abundance and diversity associated with the conversion of natural habitats into urban habitats. Ant abundance and diversity were tracked in forested sites that became urbanized through construction and were examined at 3 time points - before, during, and after construction. On average, 4.3±1.2 unique species were detected in undisturbed plots prior to construction. Ant diversity decreased to 0.7±0.8 species in plots undergoing construction and 1.5±1.1 species in plots 1 year after construction was completed. With regard to species richness, urbanization resulted in the permanent loss of 17 of the 20 species initially present in the study plots. Recovery was slow and only 3 species were present right after construction was completed and 4 species were present 1 year after construction was completed. The second objective examined ant fauna recovery in developed residential lots based on time since construction, neighboring habitat quality, pesticide inputs, and the presence of invasive ants. Ant diversity was positively correlated with factors that promoted ecological recovery and negatively correlated with factors that promoted ecological degradation. Taken together, these results address a critical gap in our knowledge by characterizing the short- and long-term the effects of urbanization on the loss of ant biodiversity.     

Influence of month and climatic factors on the period of birth,litter size,birth weight and preweaning mortality of sheep in Ghana

Relationships between month and clinatic factors-rainfall, ambient temperature, relative humidity (RH) and temperature-humidity index (THI)-with time of parturition, litter size, birth weight and preweaning mortality were studied in Djallonke and Dja lonke x Sahelian sheep. Births (4142) occurred all year round although there were significant differences in the number of births per month. Maximum litter size did not coincide with the maximum births. Peak conceptions occurred in the early parts of the major rainy season. There were also significant differences in birth weights and mortalities (%) per month. Maximum and minimum values (of birth weighs and mortalities) occurred in the latter part of the rainy seasons and dry periods respectively. There were significant positive correlations between litter size and cumulative rainfall in the 4th–6th months periods prior to lambing. Birth weights of both males and females were positively and significantly associated with minimum temperature and cumulative rain-fall in the 2- and 3-months period prior to lambing respectively. There were significant positive correlations between mortality and minimum and maximum RH and cumulative rainfall in the 3 months after lambing.     

Resting heart rate and all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in the general population: a meta-analysis

Background:

Data on resting heart rate and risk of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality are inconsistent; the magnitude of associations between resting heart rate and risk of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality varies across studies. We performed a meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies to quantitatively evaluate the associations in the general population.

Methods:

We searched PubMed, Embase and MEDLINE from inception to Jan. 1, 2015. We used a random-effects model to combine study-specific relative risks and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). We used restricted cubic spline functions to assess the dose–response relation.

Results:

A total of 46 studies were included in the meta-analysis, involving 1 246 203 patients and 78 349 deaths for all-cause mortality, and 848 320 patients and 25 800 deaths for cardiovascular mortality. The relative risk with 10 beats/min increment of resting heart rate was 1.09 (95% CI 1.07–1.12) for all-cause mortality and 1.08 (95% CI 1.06–1.10) for cardiovascular mortality. Compared with the lowest category, patients with a resting heart rate of 60–80 beats/min had a relative risk of 1.12 (95% CI 1.07–1.17) for all-cause mortality and 1.08 (95% CI 0.99–1.17) for cardiovascular mortality, and those with a resting heart rate of greater than 80 beats/min had a relative risk of 1.45 (95% CI 1.34–1.57) for all-cause mortality and 1.33 (95% CI 1.19–1.47) for cardiovascular mortality. Overall, the results did not differ after adjustment for traditional risk factors for cardiovascular disease. Compared with 45 beats/min, the risk of all-cause mortality increased significantly with increasing resting heart rate in a linear relation, but a significantly increased risk of cardiovascular mortality was observed at 90 beats/min. Substantial heterogeneity and publication bias were detected.

Interpretation:

Higher resting heart rate was independently associated with increased risks of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. This indicates that resting heart rate is a predictor of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in the general population.Resting heart rate is a familiar, straightforward and inexpensive-to-measure clinical variable, and it can be modified by a number of factors, such as physical activity, psychologic stress, smoking, intake of omega-3 fatty acids and medications.^1–4 Higher heart rate has been linked to increased risks of cardiovascular disease and premature mortality through a multitude of actions, including its detrimental effects on progression of coronary atherosclerosis, on occurrence of myocardial ischemia and ventricular arrhythmia, on left ventricular function and on circulating levels of inflammatory markers.^5–7 However, measurement of resting heart rate has not been recommended in American and European guidelines on risk assessment of cardiovascular disease.^8,9 The major reasons for this may be that the magnitude of risk with each increment of higher resting heart rate has been inconsistent among studies, and that resting heart rate may not be an independent predictor because higher heart rate coexists with traditional risk factors of cardiovascular disease.^10–13 In addition, data are lacking on the dose–response relation between resting heart rate and all-cause and cardiovascular mortality,^5,9 although a previous review showed a continuous increase in risk with resting heart rate above 60 beats/min.⁵Therefore, we conducted a meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies involving the general population, following the MOOSE checklist,¹⁴ to assess the risk of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality associated with each increment of 10 beats/min; to evaluate the possible dose–response relation by restricted cubic spline functions and by pooling risks of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality for comparable categories of resting heart rate (60–80 beats/min and > 80 beats/min); and to evaluate the effect of traditional risk factors of cardiovascular disease on the association of resting heart rate with risk of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality.     

Abiotic factors affecting mortality of Dacus oleae larvae and pupae in the soil

Mature larvae as well as pupae of different ages of Dacus oleae (Gmel.) (Diptera, Tephritidae) were treated with different combinations of various periods of cold and water, simulating winter conditions in Crete, Greece. Furthermore, mortalities of pupae and teneral adults were compared under semi-natural conditions in different soils at various moisture levels.Larvae showed a massive increase in mortality following water treatments of more than 6 hr, and no puparium formation occurred during inundation. Cold treatments proved equally deleterious. Pupae, on the other hand, were not affected by short cold treatments. Young pupae were quickly drowned when covered with water. A high percentage of the pupae died in wet soils, and in soils which, following inundation, had hardened to a dry brick-like consistency. Dry, loose soils in the shade allowed almost complete emergence. In the same soil in the sunshine, however, temperature rose above air temperature, and most pupae were killed. This effect was diminished in more humid soils, where pupal duration was longer. Upon emergence, teneral adults suffered a higher mortality when the pupation site was deeper in the soil, especially in hard soils.

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Zusammenfassung Reife Larven und Puppen unterschiedlichen Alters wurden verschiedenen Kombinationen von Kälte-und Wasserbehandlungen, welche den Winterbedingungen in Kreta, Griechenland, entsprechen, unterworfen. Die Mortalitäten von Puppen und frisch geschlüpften Imagines wurden in zwei verschiedenen Böden mit verschiedenen Wassergehalten unter halbnatürlichen Versuchsbedingungen ermittelt, und die Bodentemperaturen gemessen.Nach Wasserbehandlung von mehr als 6 Stunden nahm die Larvenmortalität sowohl in 25 als auch in 7,5° stark zu. Solange die Larven von Wasser überdeckt waren, bildeten sie kein Puparium. Kältebehandlungen von 6° und bis zu 5 Tagen Dauer verursachten ebenfalls hohe Mortalitäten. Puppen waren gegen solche kurze Kältebehandlungen unempfindlich. Sie ertranken aber umso eher, je jünger sie waren. Ein hoher Anteil der Puppen erstickte sowohl in feuchten Böden, die nicht wassergesättigt waren, als auch in vorher überschwemmten Böden, die beim Trocknen erhärtet waren. Trockener, lockerer Boden im Schatten bot die besten Bedingungen. Wenn derselbe Boden jedoch der Sonne ausgesetzt wurde, stieg die Temperatur unter halbnatürlichen Bedingungen bis 12° über die Lufttemperatur. Diese Treibhauswirkung war schwächer, je feuchter der Boden war. In feuchten Böden dauerte das Puppenstadium denn auch entsprechend länger. Die frisch geschlüpften Fliegen erlitten umso höhere Mortalitäten, je tiefer die Puppen vergraben waren. Das zeigte sich besonders deutlich in harten Böden, wo aus 5 cm Tiefe weniger als 5% aller geschlüpften Fliegen bis zur Oberfläche gelangten.

     

湖北石首散养麋鹿种群的调控机制:密度制约下种群产仔率下降

为了探讨散养麋鹿(Elaphurus davidianus)种群密度制约的调控机制,1993–2013年,我们以湖北石首麋鹿国家级自然保护区围栏内的散养麋鹿种群为研究对象,采用分区直接计数法统计麋鹿种群数量,计算种群增长率、死亡率、存活率和产仔率等参数,对麋鹿种群的发展是否受到密度制约影响以及作用于哪些种群参数进行了研究。结果表明:石首麋鹿保护区散养麋鹿种群的发展过程可分为5个阶段,分别为稳定增长阶段(1993–1997年)、快速增长阶段(1998–2006年)、缓慢增长阶段(2007–2009年)、迅速下降阶段(2010年)和种群恢复阶段(2011–2013年)。1993–1997年,种群增长率为16.60±3.10(%),而死亡率为4.34±0.93(%);1998–2006年,种群增长率增加为28.98±3.62(%),死亡率为4.35±2.31(%);2007–2009年,种群的增长率下降为7.36±1.64(%),而死亡率增加为6.32±2.85(%);2010年种群暴发传染性疾病,数量急剧下降;2011–2013年,种群增长率增加为10.95±4.04(%),而死亡率下降为5.70±2.03(%)。Pearson相关性检验结果显示:种群密度与增长率呈极显著负相关(r=–0.612,P=0.0050.01),与产仔率也呈极显著的负相关(r=–0.902,P=0.0000.01),与死亡率的相关性不显著(r=0.425,P=0.0620.05)。独立样本t检验结果显示,2010年之前(1993–2009年)和之后(2011–2013年)的成、幼体存活率分别为95.40±1.56(%)、95.79±1.80(%)和96.67±0.92(%)、94.04±2.20(%),两者差异不显著(成体:t=–0.503,df=8,P=0.6280.05;幼体:t=0.558,df=8,P=0.5920.05),这说明密度制约因素未对石首麋鹿保护区散放麋鹿种群的存活率产生明显影响。从2003年起,种群受到密度制约机制的调控,主要表现为产仔率下降,同时也受到了洪水、疾病和人类干扰等环境因素的影响。针对目前石首麋鹿保护区散养麋鹿种群面临的密度制约和环境容纳量等问题,我们提出了应对策略。