Impacts of landscape structure on butterfly range expansion

Since the 1940s, the distributions of several butterfly species have been expanding in northern Europe, probably in response to climate warming. We focus on the speckled wood butterfly Pararge aegeria in order to determine impacts of habitat availability on expansion rates. We analyse observed expansion rates since 1940 and also use a spatially explicit mechanistic model (MIGRATE) to simulate range expansion in two areas of the UK which differ in their distribution of breeding habitat (woodland). Observed and simulated expansion rates were in very close agreement but were 42%–45% slower in an area that had 24% less woodland. Unlike P. aegeria, the majority of butterfly species are not currently expanding, almost certainly because of lack of suitable habitat. Incorporating the spatial distribution of habitat into investigations of range changes is likely to be important in determining those species that can and cannot expand, and for predicting potential future range changes.     

Macro‐ and microclimatic interactions can drive variation in species' habitat associations

Many species are more restricted in their habitat associations at the leading edges of their range margins, but some species have broadened their habitat associations in these regions during recent climate change. We examine the effects of multiple, interacting climatic variables on spatial and temporal patterns of species' habitat associations, using the speckled wood butterfly, Pararge aegeria, in Britain, as our model taxon. Our analyses reveal that this species, traditionally regarded as a woodland‐dependent insect, is less restricted to woodland in regions with warmer winters and warmer and wetter summers. In addition, over the past 40 years of climate change, the species has become less restricted to woodland in locations where temperature and summer rainfall have increased most. We show that these patterns arise mechanistically because larval growth rates are slower in open (i.e. nonwoodland) habitats associated with colder microclimates in winter and greater host plant desiccation in summer. We conclude that macro‐ and microclimatic interactions drive variation in species' habitat associations, which for our study species resulted predominantly in a widening of habitat associations under climate change. However, species vary in their climatic and nonclimatic requirements, and so complex spatial and temporal patterns of changes in habitat associations are likely to be observed in future as the climate changes.     

Juçara palm ecological interactions threatened by climate and land-cover changes

Ongoing climate change has caused well-documented displacements of species' geographic distribution to newly climatically suitable areas. Ecological niche models (ENM) are widely used to project such climate-induced changes but typically ignore species' interspecific interactions that might facilitate or prevent its establishment in new areas. Here, we projected the change in the distribution of Juçara Palm (Euterpe edulis Mart., Arecaceae), a neotropical threatened palm, taking into consideration its ecological interactions. We run ENMs of E. edulis, plus its known seed dispersers (15 bird species) and predators (19 birds and mammals) under current and future climatic conditions. Additionally, for E. edulis, we removed deforested areas from the model. When considering only climate, climate change has a positive impact on E. edulis, with a predicted westward expansion and a modest southward contraction, with a 26% net gain in distribution by 2060. When removing deforested areas, however, climate change harms E. edulis, with a 66% predicted net distribution loss. Within the palm's distribution in this more realistic model, there is also a predicted reduction in the richness of its dispersers and predators. We conclude that the possible benefits of climate change to E. edulis' distribution are overshadowed by widespread habitat loss, and that global change is likely to disrupt some of its ecological interactions. The outcome of the interplay between the negative impact of the loss of dispersers, and the benefit of the loss of predators, is unclear, but the large contraction of E. edulis' range predicted here foresees a dim future for the species. Abstract in Portuguese is available with online material.     

Loss of adaptive variation during evolutionary responses to climate change

The changes in species' geographical distribution demanded by climate change are often critically limited by the availability of key interacting species. In such cases, species' persistence will depend on the rapid evolution of biotic interactions. Understanding evolutionary limits to such adaptation is therefore crucial for predicting biological responses to environmental change. The recent poleward range expansion of the UK brown argus butterfly has been associated with a shift in female preference from its main host plant, rockrose (Cistaceae), onto Geraniaceae host plants throughout its new distribution. Using reciprocal transplants onto natural host plants across the UK range, we demonstrate reduced fitness of females from recently colonised Geraniaceae‐dominated habitat when moved to ancestral rockrose habitats. By contrast, individuals from ancestral rockrose habitats show no reduction in fitness on Geraniaceae. Climate‐driven range expansion in this species is therefore associated with the rapid evolution of biotic interactions and a significant loss of adaptive variation.     

Breeding ground temperature rises,more than habitat change,are associated with spatially variable population trends in two species of migratory bird

Habitat loss and climate change are key drivers of global biodiversity declines but their relative importance has rarely been examined. We attempted to attribute spatially divergent population trends of two Afro-Palaearctic migrant warbler species, Willow Warbler Phylloscopus trochilus and Common Chiffchaff Phylloscopus collybita, to changes in breeding grounds climate or habitat. We used bird counts from over 4000 sites across the UK between 1994 and 2017, monitored as part of the BTO/JNCC/RSPB Breeding Bird Survey. We modelled Willow Warbler and Common Chiffchaff population size and growth in relation to habitat, climate and weather. We then used the abundance model coefficients and observed environmental changes to determine the extent to which spatially varying population trends in England and Scotland were consistent with attribution to climate and habitat changes. Both species' population size and growth correlated with habitat, climate and weather on their breeding grounds. Changes in habitat, in particular woodland expansion, could be linked to small population increases for both species in England and Scotland. Both species' populations correlated more strongly with climate than weather, and both had an optimum breeding season temperature: 11°C for Willow Warbler and around 13.5°C for Common Chiffchaff (with marginally different predictions from population size and growth models). Breeding ground temperature increases, therefore, had the potential to have caused some of the observed Willow Warbler declines in England (where the mean breeding season temperature was 12.7°C) and increases in Scotland (mean breeding season temperature was 10.2°C), and some of the differential rates of increase for Common Chiffchaff. However, much of the variation in species' population abundance and trends were not well predicted by our models and could be due to other factors, such as species interactions, habitat and climate change in their wintering grounds and on migration. This study provides evidence that the effect of climate change on a species may vary spatially and may switch from being beneficial to being detrimental if a temperature threshold is exceeded.     

Updating Known Distribution Models for Forecasting Climate Change Impact on Endangered Species

To plan endangered species conservation and to design adequate management programmes, it is necessary to predict their distributional response to climate change, especially under the current situation of rapid change. However, these predictions are customarily done by relating de novo the distribution of the species with climatic conditions with no regard of previously available knowledge about the factors affecting the species distribution. We propose to take advantage of known species distribution models, but proceeding to update them with the variables yielded by climatic models before projecting them to the future. To exemplify our proposal, the availability of suitable habitat across Spain for the endangered Bonelli''s Eagle (Aquila fasciata) was modelled by updating a pre-existing model based on current climate and topography to a combination of different general circulation models and Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Our results suggested that the main threat for this endangered species would not be climate change, since all forecasting models show that its distribution will be maintained and increased in mainland Spain for all the XXI century. We remark on the importance of linking conservation biology with distribution modelling by updating existing models, frequently available for endangered species, considering all the known factors conditioning the species'' distribution, instead of building new models that are based on climate change variables only.     

Optimizing resiliency of reserve networks to climate change: multispecies conservation planning in the Pacific Northwest,USA

The effectiveness of a system of reserves may be compromised under climate change as species' habitat shifts to nonreserved areas, a problem that may be compounded when well‐studied vertebrate species are used as conservation umbrellas for other taxa. The Northwest Forest Plan was among the first efforts to integrate conservation of wide‐ranging focal species and localized endemics into regional conservation planning. We evaluated how effectively the plan's focal species, the Northern Spotted Owl, acts as an umbrella for localized species under current and projected future climates and how the regional system of reserves can be made more resilient to climate change. We used the program maxent to develop distribution models integrating climate data with vegetation variables for the owl and 130 localized species. We used the program zonation to identify a system of areas that efficiently captures habitat for both the owl and localized species and prioritizes refugial areas of climatic and topographic heterogeneity where current and future habitat for dispersal‐limited species is in proximity. We projected future species' distributions based on an ensemble of contrasting climate models, and incorporating uncertainty between alternate climate projections into the prioritization process. Reserve solutions based on the owl overlap areas of high localized‐species richness but poorly capture core areas of localized species' distribution. Congruence between priority areas across taxa increases when refugial areas are prioritized. Although core‐area selection strategies can potentially increase the conservation value and resilience of regional reserve systems, they accentuate contrasts in priority areas between species and over time and should be combined with a broadened taxonomic scope and increased attention to potential effects of climate change. Our results suggest that systems of fixed reserves designed for resilience can increase the likelihood of retaining the biological diversity of forest ecosystems under climate change.     

Topographic,latitudinal and climatic distribution of Pinus coulteri: geographic range limits are not at the edge of the climate envelope

With changing climate, many species are projected to move poleward or to higher elevations to track suitable climates. The prediction that species will move poleward assumes that geographically marginal populations are at the edge of the species' climatic range. We studied Pinus coulteri from the center to the northern (poleward) edge of its range, and examined three scenarios regarding the relationship between the geographic and climatic margins of a species' range. We used herbarium and iNaturalist.org records to identify P. coulteri sites, generated a species distribution model based on temperature, precipitation, climatic water deficit, and actual evapotranspiration, and projected suitability under future climate scenarios. In fourteen populations from the central to northern portions of the range, we conducted field studies and recorded elevation, slope and aspect (to estimate solar insolation) to examine relationships between local and regional distributions. We found that northern populations of P. coulteri do not occupy the cold or wet edge of the species' climatic range; mid‐latitude, high elevation populations occupy the cold margin. Aspect and insolation of P. coulteri populations changed significantly across latitudes and elevations. Unexpectedly, northern, low‐elevation stands occupy north‐facing aspects and receive low insolation, while central, high‐elevation stands grow on more south‐facing aspects that receive higher insolation. Modeled future climate suitability is projected to be highest in the central, high elevation portion of the species range, and in low‐lying coastal regions under some scenarios, with declining suitability in northern areas under most future scenarios. For P. coulteri, the lack of high elevation habitat combined with a major dispersal barrier may limit northward movement in response to a warming climate. Our analyses demonstrate the importance of distinguishing geographically vs. climatically marginal populations, and the importance of quantitative analysis of the realized climate space to understand species range limits.     

Projecting marine species range shifts from only temperature can mask climate vulnerability

Climate change is causing range shifts in many marine species, with implications for biodiversity and fisheries. Previous research has mainly focused on how species' ranges will respond to changing ocean temperatures, without accounting for other environmental covariates that could affect future distribution patterns. Here, we integrate habitat suitability modeling approaches, a high‐resolution global climate model projection, and detailed fishery‐independent and ‐dependent faunal datasets from one of the most extensively monitored marine ecosystems—the U.S. Northeast Shelf. We project the responses of 125 species in this region to climate‐driven changes in multiple oceanographic factors (e.g., ocean temperature, salinity, sea surface height) and seabed characteristics (i.e., rugosity and depth). Comparing model outputs based on ocean temperature and seabed characteristics to those that also incorporated salinity and sea surface height (proxies for primary productivity and ocean circulation features), we explored how an emphasis on ocean temperature in projecting species' range shifts can impact assessments of species' climate vulnerability. We found that multifactor habitat suitability models performed better in explaining and predicting species historical distribution patterns than temperature‐based models. We also found that multifactor models provided more concerning assessments of species' future distribution patterns than temperature‐based models, projecting that species' ranges will largely shift northward and become more contracted and fragmented over time. Our results suggest that using ocean temperature as a primary determinant of range shifts can significantly alter projections, masking species' climate vulnerability, and potentially forestalling proactive management.     

Worldwide Niche and Future Potential Distribution of Culicoides imicola,a Major Vector of Bluetongue and African Horse Sickness Viruses

We modelled the ecoclimatic niche of Culicoides imicola, a major arthropod vector of midge-borne viral pathogens affecting ruminants and equids, at fine scale and on a global extent, so as to provide insight into current and future risks of disease epizootics, and increase current knowledge of the species'' ecology. Based on the known distribution and ecology of C. imicola, the species'' response to monthly climatic conditions was characterised using CLIMEX with 10′ spatial resolution climatic datasets. The species'' climatic niche was projected worldwide and under future climatic scenarios. The validated model highlights the role of irrigation in supporting the occurrence of C. imicola in arid regions. In Europe, the modelled potential distribution of C. imicola extended further West than its reported distribution, raising questions regarding ongoing process of colonization and non-climatic habitat factors. The CLIMEX model highlighted similar ecological niches for C. imicola and the Australasian C. brevitarsis raising questions on biogeography and biosecurity. Under the climate change scenarios considered, its'' modelled potential distribution could expand northward in the Northern hemisphere, whereas in Africa its range may contract in the future. The biosecurity risks from bluetongue and African horse sickness viruses need to be re-evaluated in regions where the vector''s niche is suitable. Under a warmer climate, the risk of vector-borne epizootic pathogens such as bluetongue and African horse sickness viruses are likely to increase as the climate suitability for C. imicola shifts poleward, especially in Western Europe.     

Projected bioclimatic distributions in Nearctic Bovidae signal the potential for reduced overlap with protected areas

Assumptions about factors such as climate in shaping species'' realized and potential distributions underlie much of conservation planning and wildlife management. Climate and climatic change lead to shifts in species distributions through both direct and indirect ecological pressures. Distributional shifts may be particularly important if range overlap is altered between interacting species, or between species and protected areas. The cattle family (Bovidae) represents a culturally, economically, and ecologically important taxon that occupies many of the world''s rangelands. In contemporary North America, five wild bovid species inhabit deserts, prairies, mountains, and tundra from Mexico to Greenland. Here, we aim to understand how future climate change will modify environmental characteristics associated with North American bovid species relative to the distribution of extant protected areas. We fit species distribution models for each species to climate, topography, and land cover data using observations from a citizen science dataset. We then projected modeled distributions to the end of the 21st century for each bovid species under two scenarios of anticipated climate change. Modeling results suggest that suitable habitat will shift inconsistently across species and that such shifts will lead to species‐specific variation in overlap between potential habitat and existing protected areas. Furthermore, projected overlap with protected areas was sensitive to the warming scenario under consideration, with diminished realized protected area under greater warming. Conservation priorities and designation of new protected areas should account for ecological consequences of climate change.     

Climate Change and Risk of Leishmaniasis in North America: Predictions from Ecological Niche Models of Vector and Reservoir Species

Background

Climate change is increasingly being implicated in species'' range shifts throughout the world, including those of important vector and reservoir species for infectious diseases. In North America (México, United States, and Canada), leishmaniasis is a vector-borne disease that is autochthonous in México and Texas and has begun to expand its range northward. Further expansion to the north may be facilitated by climate change as more habitat becomes suitable for vector and reservoir species for leishmaniasis.

Methods and Findings

The analysis began with the construction of ecological niche models using a maximum entropy algorithm for the distribution of two sand fly vector species (Lutzomyia anthophora and L. diabolica), three confirmed rodent reservoir species (Neotoma albigula, N. floridana, and N. micropus), and one potential rodent reservoir species (N. mexicana) for leishmaniasis in northern México and the United States. As input, these models used species'' occurrence records with topographic and climatic parameters as explanatory variables. Models were tested for their ability to predict correctly both a specified fraction of occurrence points set aside for this purpose and occurrence points from an independently derived data set. These models were refined to obtain predicted species'' geographical distributions under increasingly strict assumptions about the ability of a species to disperse to suitable habitat and to persist in it, as modulated by its ecological suitability. Models successful at predictions were fitted to the extreme A2 and relatively conservative B2 projected climate scenarios for 2020, 2050, and 2080 using publicly available interpolated climate data from the Third Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report. Further analyses included estimation of the projected human population that could potentially be exposed to leishmaniasis in 2020, 2050, and 2080 under the A2 and B2 scenarios. All confirmed vector and reservoir species will see an expansion of their potential range towards the north. Thus, leishmaniasis has the potential to expand northwards from México and the southern United States. In the eastern United States its spread is predicted to be limited by the range of L. diabolica; further west, L. anthophora may play the same role. In the east it may even reach the southern boundary of Canada. The risk of spread is greater for the A2 scenario than for the B2 scenario. Even in the latter case, with restrictive (contiguous) models for dispersal of vector and reservoir species, and limiting vector and reservoir species occupancy to only the top 10% of their potential suitable habitat, the expected number of human individuals exposed to leishmaniasis by 2080 will at least double its present value.

Conclusions

These models predict that climate change will exacerbate the ecological risk of human exposure to leishmaniasis in areas outside its present range in the United States and, possibly, in parts of southern Canada. This prediction suggests the adoption of measures such as surveillance for leishmaniasis north of Texas as disease cases spread northwards. Potential vector and reservoir control strategies—besides direct intervention in disease cases—should also be further investigated.     

Wrong place,wrong time: climate change‐induced range shift across fragmented habitat causes maladaptation and declined population size in a modelled bird species

Many species are locally adapted to decreased habitat quality at their range margins, and therefore show genetic differences throughout their ranges. Under contemporary climate change, range shifts may affect evolutionary processes at the expanding range margin due to founder events. In addition, populations that are affected by such founder events will, in the course of time, become located in the range centre. Recent studies investigated evolutionary changes at the expanding range margin, but have not assessed eventual effects across the species' range. We explored the possible influence of range shift on the level of adaptation throughout the species' total range. For this we used a spatially explicit, individual‐based simulation model of a woodland bird, parameterized after the middle spotted woodpecker ( Dendrocopos medius) in fragmented habitat. We simulated its range under climate change, and incorporated genetic differences at a single locus that determined the individual's degree of adaptation to optimal temperature conditions. Generalist individuals had a large thermal tolerance, but relatively low overall fitness, whereas climate specialists had high fitness combined with a small thermal tolerance. In equilibrium, the populations in the range centre were comprised of the specialists, whereas the generalists dominated the margins. In contrast, under temperature increase, the generalist numbers increased at the expanding margin and eventually also occupied the centre of the shifting range, whereas the specialists were located in the retracting margins. This was caused by founder events and led to overall maladaptation of the species, which resulted in a reduced metapopulation size and thus impeded the species' persistence. We therefore found no evidence for a complementary effect of local adaptation and range shifts on species' survival. Instead, we showed that founder events can cause local maladaptation which can amplify throughout the species' range, and, as such, hamper the species' persistence under climate change.     

Vanishing islands in the sky? A comparison of correlation- and mechanism-based forecasts of range dynamics for montane salamanders under climate change

Forecasting the effects of climate change on species and populations is a fundamental goal of conservation biology, especially for montane endemics which seemingly are under the greatest threat of extinction given their association with cool, high elevation habitats. Species distribution models (also known as niche models) predict where on the landscape there is suitable habitat for a species of interest. Correlative niche modeling, the most commonly employed approach to predict species' distributions, relies on correlations between species' localities and current environmental data. This type of model could spuriously forecast less future suitable habitat because species' current distributions may not adequately represent their thermal tolerance, and future climate conditions may not be analogous to current conditions. We compared the predicted distributions for three montane species of Plethodon salamanders in the southern Appalachian Mountains of North America using a correlative modeling approach and a mechanistic model. The mechanistic model incorporates species-specific physiology, morphology and behavior to predict an annual energy budget on the landscape. Both modeling approaches performed well at predicting the species' current distributions and predicted that all species could persist in habitats at higher elevation through 2085. The mechanistic model predicted more future suitable habitat than the correlative model. We attribute these differences to the mechanistic approach being able to model shifts in key range-limiting biological processes (changes in surface activity time and energy costs) that the correlative approach cannot. Choice of global circulation model (GCM) contributed significantly to distribution predictions, with a tenfold difference in future suitability based on GCM, indicating that GCM variability should be either directly included in models of species distributions or, indirectly, through the use of multi-model ensemble averages. Our results indicate that correlative models are over-predicting habitat loss for montane species, suggesting a critical need to incorporate mechanisms into forecasts of species' range dynamics.     

Losing your edge: climate change and the conservation value of range‐edge populations

Populations occurring at species' range edges can be locally adapted to unique environmental conditions. From a species' perspective, range‐edge environments generally have higher severity and frequency of extreme climatic events relative to the range core. Under future climates, extreme climatic events are predicted to become increasingly important in defining species' distributions. Therefore, range‐edge genotypes that are better adapted to extreme climates relative to core populations may be essential to species' persistence during periods of rapid climate change. We use relatively simple conceptual models to highlight the importance of locally adapted range‐edge populations (leading and trailing edges) for determining the ability of species to persist under future climates. Using trees as an example, we show how locally adapted populations at species' range edges may expand under future climate change and become more common relative to range‐core populations. We also highlight how large‐scale habitat destruction occurring in some geographic areas where many species range edge converge, such as biome boundaries and ecotones (e.g., the arc of deforestation along the rainforest‐cerrado ecotone in the southern Amazonia), can have major implications for global biodiversity. As climate changes, range‐edge populations will play key roles in helping species to maintain or expand their geographic distributions. The loss of these locally adapted range‐edge populations through anthropogenic disturbance is therefore hypothesized to reduce the ability of species to persist in the face of rapid future climate change.     

Linking habitat use to range expansion rates in fragmented landscapes: a metapopulation approach

Temperature increases because of climate change are expected to cause expansions at the high latitude margins of species distributions, but, in practice, fragmented landscapes act as barriers to colonization for most species. Understanding how species distributions will shift in response to climate change therefore requires techniques that incorporate the combined effects of climate and landscape‐scale habitat availability on colonization rates. We use a metapopulation model (Incidence Function Model, IFM) to test effects of fine‐scale habitat use on patterns and rates of range expansion by the butterfly Hesperia comma. At its northern range margin in Britain, this species has increased its breadth of microhabitat use because of climate warming, leading to increased colonization rates. We validated the IFM by reconstructing expansions in five habitat networks between 1982 and 2000, before using it to predict metapopulation dynamics over 100 yr, for three scenarios based on observed changes to habitat use. We define the scenarios as “cold‐world” (only hot, south‐facing 150–250° hillsides are deemed warm enough), “warm‐world” in which 100–300° hillsides can be populated, and “hot‐world”, where the background climate is warm enough to enable use of all aspects (as increasingly observed). In the simulations, increased habitat availability in the hot‐world scenario led to faster range expansion rates, and to long‐term differences in distribution size and pattern. Thus, fine‐scale changes in the distribution of suitable microclimates led to landscape‐scale changes in population size and colonization rate, resulting in coarse‐scale changes to the species distribution. Despite use of a wider range of habitats associated with climate change, H. comma is still expected to occupy a small fraction of available habitat in 100 yr. The research shows that metapopulation models represent a potential framework to identify barriers to range expansion, and to predict the effects of environmental change or conservation interventions on species distributions and persistence.     

Global variation in thermal tolerances and vulnerability of endotherms to climate change

The relationships among species'' physiological capacities and the geographical variation of ambient climate are of key importance to understanding the distribution of life on the Earth. Furthermore, predictions of how species will respond to climate change will profit from the explicit consideration of their physiological tolerances. The climatic variability hypothesis, which predicts that climatic tolerances are broader in more variable climates, provides an analytical framework for studying these relationships between physiology and biogeography. However, direct empirical support for the hypothesis is mostly lacking for endotherms, and few studies have tried to integrate physiological data into assessments of species'' climatic vulnerability at the global scale. Here, we test the climatic variability hypothesis for endotherms, with a comprehensive dataset on thermal tolerances derived from physiological experiments, and use these data to assess the vulnerability of species to projected climate change. We find the expected relationship between thermal tolerance and ambient climatic variability in birds, but not in mammals—a contrast possibly resulting from different adaptation strategies to ambient climate via behaviour, morphology or physiology. We show that currently most of the species are experiencing ambient temperatures well within their tolerance limits and that in the future many species may be able to tolerate projected temperature increases across significant proportions of their distributions. However, our findings also underline the high vulnerability of tropical regions to changes in temperature and other threats of anthropogenic global changes. Our study demonstrates that a better understanding of the interplay among species'' physiology and the geography of climate change will advance assessments of species'' vulnerability to climate change.     

Shifts in potential geographical distribution of Pterocarya stenoptera under climate change scenarios in China

Climate change poses a serious threat to biodiversity. Predicting the effects of climate change on the distribution of a species' habitat can help humans address the potential threats which may change the scope and distribution of species. Pterocarya stenoptera is a common fast‐growing tree species often used in the ecological restoration of riverbanks and alpine forests in central and eastern China. Until now, the characteristics of the distribution of this species' habitat are poorly known as are the environmental factors that influence its preferred habitat. In the present study, the Maximum Entropy Modeling (Maxent) algorithm and the Genetic Algorithm for Ruleset Production (GARP) were used to establish the models for the potential distribution of this species by selecting 236 sites with known occurrences and 14 environmental variables. The results indicate that both models have good predictive power. Minimum temperature of coldest month (Bio6), mean temperature of warmest quarter (Bio10), annual precipitation (Bio12), and precipitation of driest month (Bio14) were important environmental variables influencing the prediction of the Maxent model. According to the models, the temperate and subtropical regions of eastern China had high environmental suitability for this species, where the species had been recorded. Under each climate change scenario, climatic suitability of the existing range of this species increased, and its climatic niche expanded geographically to the north and higher elevation. GARP predicted a more conservative expansion. The projected spatial and temporal patterns of P. stenoptera can provide reference for the development of forest management and protection strategies.     

Climate controls the distribution of a widespread invasive species: implications for future range expansion

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The Reduced Effectiveness of Protected Areas under Climate Change Threatens Atlantic Forest Tiger Moths

Climate change leads to species'' range shifts, which may end up reducing the effectiveness of protected areas. These deleterious changes in biodiversity may become amplified if they include functionally important species, such as herbivores or pollinators. We evaluated how effective protected areas in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest are in maintaining the diversity of tiger moths (Arctiinae) under climate change. Specifically, we assessed whether protected areas will gain or lose species under climate change and mapped their locations in the Atlantic Forest, in order to assess potential spatial patterns of protected areas that will gain or lose species richness. Comparisons were completed using modeled species occurrence data based on the current and projected climate in 2080. We also built a null model for random allocation of protected areas to identify where reductions in species richness will be more severe than expected. We employed several modern techniques for modeling species'' distributions and summarized results using ensembles of models. Our models indicate areas of high species richness in the central and southern regions of the Atlantic Forest both for now and the future. However, we estimate that in 2080 these regions should become climatically unsuitable, decreasing the species'' distribution area. Around 4% of species were predicted to become extinct, some of them being endemic to the biome. Estimates of species turnover from current to future climate tended to be high, but these findings are dependent on modeling methods. Our most important results show that only a few protected areas in the southern region of the biome would gain species. Protected areas in semideciduous forests in the western region of the biome would lose more species than expected by the null model employed. Hence, current protected areas are worse off, than just randomly selected areas, at protecting species in the future.