Trial-by-trial changes in a priori informational value of external cues and subjective expectancies in human auditory attention

Background

Preparatory activity based on a priori probabilities generated in previous trials and subjective expectancies would produce an attentional bias. However, preparation can be correct (valid) or incorrect (invalid) depending on the actual target stimulus. The alternation effect refers to the subjective expectancy that a target will not be repeated in the same position, causing RTs to increase if the target location is repeated. The present experiment, using the Posner''s central cue paradigm, tries to demonstrate that not only the credibility of the cue, but also the expectancy about the next position of the target are changedin a trial by trial basis. Sequences of trials were analyzed.

Results

The results indicated an increase in RT benefits when sequences of two and three valid trials occurred. The analysis of errors indicated an increase in anticipatory behavior which grows as the number of valid trials is increased. On the other hand, there was also an RT benefit when a trial was preceded by trials in which the position of the target changed with respect to the current trial (alternation effect). Sequences of two alternations or two repetitions were faster than sequences of trials in which a pattern of repetition or alternation is broken.

Conclusions

Taken together, these results suggest that in Posner''s central cue paradigm, and with regard to the anticipatory activity, the credibility of the external cue and of the endogenously anticipated patterns of target location are constantly updated. The results suggest that Bayesian rules are operating in the generation of anticipatory activity as a function of the previous trial''s outcome, but also on biases or prior beliefs like the “gambler fallacy”.     

Fertility in the mare after repeated transvaginal ultrasound-guided aspirations

Ovum pick-up (OPU) by transvaginal ultrasound guided aspiration (TUGA) is a procedure applied in equine-assisted reproduction programs such as oocyte transfer and in vitro embryo production. Despite a large number of studies reporting that it is a repeatable and safe technique, little information is available about the effect of repeated punctures on fertility of mares. Moreover, even if flushing follicles improves the oocyte recovery rate, to our knowledge the efficiency of flushing estrous and diestrous follicles has not been evaluated. The aims of the present study were (1) evaluate if repeated TUGAs negatively effects fertility and (2) investigate the influence of flushing the follicular cavity (as compared to aspiration only-unflushed) on the recovery rate from follicles of different sizes and in different stages of the estrous cycle. Seventy-six TUGAs were carried out on 20 mares during the breeding season; 153 follicles were aspirated and 31 oocytes were recovered (20.3% per follicle; 40.8% per TUGA attempt). Of the 76 aspirations, 52 were carried out during estrus and 24 in diestrus. Flushing the follicular cavity significantly increased (P < 0.01) the oocyte recovery rate from estrous follicles (13/28, 46.4% flushed versus 3/24, 12.5% aspirated only) but not (P > 0.05) from diestrous follicles of different diameters (3/30, 10% flushed versus 2/36, 5.6% aspirated only for follicles <2 cm in diameter; 6/20, 30% flushed versus 4/15, 26.7% aspirated only for follicles > or =2 cm in diameter). Mares underwent ultrasonic examinations after every aspiration and no alteration was found with the exception of two mares in which the corpus luteum (CL) did not form following aspiration of estrous follicle. Of the 20 mares involved in this study, 10 were artificially inseminated with fresh semen from a single fertile stallion at the first spontaneous heat following the previous aspiration. Of the 10 inseminated mares, 7 were found to be pregnant 16, 30 and 50 days after artificial insemination (AI), indicating that repeated TUGAs did not adversely affect fertility.     

Some game-theoretical aspects of parasitism and symbiosis

Given a two-person continuous non-constant sum game, a “solution” can be arrived at even in ignorance of the pay-off functions as each player tries to maximize his own pay-off by trial and error. The solution of the game considered here is either the intersection of two “optimal lines” (the case of the stable equilibrium) or parasitism of one player upon the other (the case of unstable equilibrium). The introduction of secondary satisfactions (linear combinations of the pay-offs) affects both the position and the stability of the equilibrium and thus the resulting primary satisfactions (the pay-offs). These effects of the matrix of transformation are investigated. In particular, it is shown that the social optimum, which is also the solution of the game where collusion is allowed, is attained if and only if the columns of the matrix are identical, and that this solution is generally stable. Some suggested connections with biological situations are discussed.     

Hormonal underpinnings of status conflict: Testosterone and cortisol are related to decisions and satisfaction in the hawk-dove game

A contribution to a special issue on Hormones and Human Competition.Testosterone is theorized to influence status-seeking behaviors such as social dominance and competitive behavior, but supporting evidence is mixed. The present study tested the roles of testosterone and cortisol in the hawk-dove game, a dyadic economic decision-making paradigm in which earnings depend on one's own and the other player's choices. If one person selects the hawk strategy and the other person selects the dove strategy, the player who selected hawk attains a greater financial pay-off (status differentiation). The worst financial outcome occurs when both players choose the hawk strategy (status confrontation). Ninety-eight undergraduate students (42 men) provided saliva samples and played ten rounds of the hawk-dove game with another same-sex participant. In support of the hypothesis that testosterone is related to status concern, individuals higher in basal testosterone made more hawk decisions — decisions that harmed the other player. Acute decreases in cortisol were also associated with more hawk decisions. There was some empirical support for the dual-hormone hypothesis as well: basal testosterone was positively related to satisfaction in the game among low basal-cortisol individuals but not among high basal-cortisol individuals. There were no significant sex differences in these hormonal effects. The present findings align with theories of hormones and status-seeking behavior at the individual level, but they also open up new avenues for research on hormone profiles at the collective level. Our results suggest that the presence of two or more high-testosterone members increases the likelihood of status confrontations over a limited resource that can undermine collective outcomes.     

When should a female avoid adding eggs to the clutch of another female? A simultaneous oviposition and sex allocation game

Summary Avoidance of double oviposition (ADO) is the strategy not to oviposit on food patches where another female has oviposited before. If two females oviposit on the same patch, competitive and mating interactions within and between broods may lead to both a clutch size game and a sex allocation game between the two visitors. Though the two games interact, they are usually considered separately. Here, the ESS conditions for ADO are investigated in an analysis that combines the two games into one. The analysis strengthens the notion that it is really ADO that needs to be explained, because role-dependent net pay-off from an additional egg is most likely to favour double oviposition (DO). To a first female, the net payoff includes the effect on the eggs already present, whereas to a second female only the egg's gross pay-off matters. ADO is the evolutionary stable strategy (ESS) if there are enough patches still without eggs and either (1) the fitness of an additional egg is so low that the first female would not lay it even in the absence of detrimental effects on earlier offspring, so neither would a second female, or (2) differences in either the survival probability of the offspring or their reproductive success are sufficient to counterbalance the differential interest in the eggs already present. The first condition requires that eggs are relatively large, because then the decrease in pay-off between two successive eggs can be large. The second condition may be met when there is a time interval between ovipositions of subsequent females. The resulting developmental lag of the second clutch will (1) diminish its ability to compete for food and (2) lower its reproductive success when there is local mate competition and sons are too late to mate with daughters of the first female. If sons of first and second females compete on equal terms, however, ADO is unlikely. Male migration between patches reduces the influence of sex allocation strategies on clutch size decisions; the same holds for small clutch sizes. To illustrate the importance of considering sex allocation and clutch size decisions in an integrated way, oviposition strategies of plant-inhabiting predatory mites (Acari: Phytoseiidae) are discussed.     

Reinforcement Learning Explains Conditional Cooperation and Its Moody Cousin

Direct reciprocity, or repeated interaction, is a main mechanism to sustain cooperation under social dilemmas involving two individuals. For larger groups and networks, which are probably more relevant to understanding and engineering our society, experiments employing repeated multiplayer social dilemma games have suggested that humans often show conditional cooperation behavior and its moody variant. Mechanisms underlying these behaviors largely remain unclear. Here we provide a proximate account for this behavior by showing that individuals adopting a type of reinforcement learning, called aspiration learning, phenomenologically behave as conditional cooperator. By definition, individuals are satisfied if and only if the obtained payoff is larger than a fixed aspiration level. They reinforce actions that have resulted in satisfactory outcomes and anti-reinforce those yielding unsatisfactory outcomes. The results obtained in the present study are general in that they explain extant experimental results obtained for both so-called moody and non-moody conditional cooperation, prisoner’s dilemma and public goods games, and well-mixed groups and networks. Different from the previous theory, individuals are assumed to have no access to information about what other individuals are doing such that they cannot explicitly use conditional cooperation rules. In this sense, myopic aspiration learning in which the unconditional propensity of cooperation is modulated in every discrete time step explains conditional behavior of humans. Aspiration learners showing (moody) conditional cooperation obeyed a noisy GRIM-like strategy. This is different from the Pavlov, a reinforcement learning strategy promoting mutual cooperation in two-player situations.     

Stratified or Multicentre Analysis with Extended Mantel–Haenszel Statistics

Since its introduction in 1959 the ability of the classical Mantel-Haenszel (M–H) procedure for combining the odds ratios of a set of I 2 × 2 tables has led to its use also in stratified or multicentre type clinical trials. A familiar application is the M–H logrank test in survival analysis. An extension of the M–H procedure covering the case of 2 × K contingency tables (MANTEL , 1963) with ordered levels retains the essential property of pooling the results of I homogeneous tables (i.e. in absence of qualitative interactions). The assignment of some score for the K columns of a table is essential for the use of the method (in comparing 2 treatments). Some possibilities of score assignment are discussed: for clinical outcome variables such as the degree of severity of a disease, pain and so on, the score is at hand in a natural way. A less well-known type of scoring consists in ranking the observations of a continuous variable, leading to cell sizes of 1 or 0. In this case, however, if equidistant ranking was used, the E–M–H procedure appears as an extension of Wilcoxon's rank sum test and represents a powerful non-parametric approach in stratified or multicentre type designs with non normally distributed outcome variables. The results of some Monte-Carlo simulations for 2 possible equidistant ranking procedures are presented, which indicate only a moderate gain in power as compared to Wilcoxon's rank sum test under the common situation of centre effects not exceeding treatment effects. Use of the E–M–H pro?edure is also recommended as a simple method to overcome the potential bias due to unequally distributed prognostic factors among treatment groups.     

Evolutionarily stable communication between kin: a general model

At present, the most general evolutionary theory of honest communication is Grafen''s model of Zahavi''s ''handicap'' signalling system, in which honesty of signals about the signaller''s quality (e.g. mate suitability or fighting ability) is maintained by the differentially high cost of signals to signallers having lower quality. The latter model is here further generalized to include any communication between signallers and receivers that are genetically related (e.g. parents and begging offspring, cooperative or competing siblings). Signalling systems involving relatives are shown to be evolutionarily stable, despite a potential pay-off for false signalling, if the Zahavian assumption of differential signal costs holds and there are diminishing reproductive returns to the signaller as the receiver''s assessed value of its attribute increases, or if, regardless of whether the Zahavian assumption holds, signallers with high values of the attribute benefit more from a given receiver assessment than signallers with low values (e.g. begging chicks that are hungrier benefit more from being fed). In stable systems of signalling among kin, it is also shown to be generally true that (i) levels of signalling and thus observed signal costs will decline as relatedness increases or as the receiver''s reproductive penalty for erroneous assessment increases, and (ii) receivers will consistently, altruistically overestimate the true value of the signalled attribute.     

Administration of 15-methyl-prostaglandin F2α as a pre-operative means of cervical dilatation

Pre-operative dilatation of the cervix prior to vacuum aspiration was accomplished in 67 volunteers by extra-amniotic or intra-muscular administration of 15(S)-15-methyl-PGF_2α (15-me-PGF_2α). Ninety-four per cent of the patients were in the 11th–13th week of gestation and 61% were nulliparae. A single extra-amniotic instillation (mean of 400 μg) or 3 intramuscular injections (300–800 μg per injection) of the compound induced a satisfactory outcome in terms of either abortion or sufficient dilatation of the cervix in 81% of the patients. In the remaining cases, the cervix was found at operation to be open for 7–9 mm which simplified the process of additional instrumental dilatation. In general the outcome of the trial turned the operation into an easy and safe procedure. Vacuum aspiration was performed in all cases after a mean time lag of 16 hours following the onset of the treatment. Extra-amniotic administration was associated with a low incidence of gastro-intestinal side-effects, but there was a transient and moderate degree of uterine pain reaction. The intramuscular route was technically more simple and caused less uterine pain but the high incidence of vomiting and diarrhoea constituted a clinical disadvantage. In late first trimester abortions, particularly cases where the uterus appears larger than expected, it is believed that dilatation of the cervix by PG prior to vacuum aspiration is a sound clinical indication. The method offers definite advantages that compensate for the price of some minor side-effects.     

The logic of asymmetric contests

A theoretical analysis is made of the evolution of behavioural strategies in contest situations. It is assumed that behaviour will evolve so as to maximize individual fitness. If so, a population will evolve an ‘evolutionarily stable strategy’, or ESS, which can be defined as a strategy such that, if all members of a population adopt it, no ‘mutant’ strategy can do better. A number of simple models of contest situations are analysed from this point of view. It is concluded that in ‘symmetric’ contests the ESS is likely to be a ‘mixed’ strategy; that is, either the population will be genetically polymorphic or individuals will be behaviourally variable. Most real contests are probably asymmetric, either in pay-off to the contestants, or in size or weapons, or in some ‘uncorrelated’ fashion; i.e. in a fashion which does not substantially bias either the pay-offs or the likely outcome of an escalated contest. An example of an uncorrelated asymmetry is that between the ‘discoverer’ of a resource and a ‘late-comer’. It is shown that the ESS in asymmetric contests will usually be to permit the asymmetric cue to settle the contest without escalation. Escalated contests will, however, occur if information to the contestants about the asymmetry is imperfect.     

Partial least squares for functional joint models with applications to the Alzheimer's disease neuroimaging initiative study

Many biomedical studies have identified important imaging biomarkers that are associated with both repeated clinical measures and a survival outcome. The functional joint model (FJM) framework, proposed by Li and Luo in 2017, investigates the association between repeated clinical measures and survival data, while adjusting for both high-dimensional images and low-dimensional covariates based on the functional principal component analysis (FPCA). In this paper, we propose a novel algorithm for the estimation of FJM based on the functional partial least squares (FPLS). Our numerical studies demonstrate that, compared to FPCA, the proposed FPLS algorithm can yield more accurate and robust estimation and prediction performance in many important scenarios. We apply the proposed FPLS algorithm to a neuroimaging study. Data used in preparation of this article were obtained from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) database.     

Prediction of aggressiveness of gastrointestinal stromal tumours based on immunostaining with bcl-2, Ki-67 and p53

OBJECTIVE: While the use of fine needle aspiration (FNA) in the diagnosis of gastrointestinal stromal tumours (GISTs) is well-established, it can be difficult to predict the prognosis of GIST based on morphology alone. The objective of the current study was to determine if expression of bcl-2, Ki-67 and p53 correlated with the outcome of GISTs based on cytological material. METHODS: Cell-blocks from 14 GISTs diagnosed by FNA were retrieved. Immunostaining was performed with antibodies against bcl-2, Ki-67 and p53. All cytological diagnoses were confirmed by positive immunostaining with c-kit and/or subsequent histological evaluation. Positivity for bcl-2, Ki-67 and p53 was defined as the presence of > or =10% cytoplasmic staining, > or =5% nuclear staining and > or =5% nuclear staining respectively. RESULTS: The 14 patients consisted of seven males and seven females with a mean age of 58 years. The average follow-up interval was 46 months. Six had a benign course and eight developed recurrences/metastases. Thirteen (93%) cases showed positive staining for bcl-2. Positive Ki-67 and p53 staining was noted in one (7%) and seven (50%) cases respectively. The difference in staining for p53 between aggressive and non-aggressive GISTs was statistically significant. No statistically significant difference was noted for bcl-2 staining or Ki-67 labelling index between the two groups. CONCLUSIONS: According to our observations, p53 immunostaining may be useful in predicting the outcome of GIST diagnosed by FNA; Ki-67 and bcl-2 are not useful as prognostic markers for GIST in FNA specimens.     

Management of refractory and complicated reflux esophagitis.

Simple intermittent heartburn with minor or no esophagitis can be treated with simple measures including lifestyle changes and antacids as needed, or H2 receptor antagonists (H2RA), and has a good outcome. Problematic reflux includes resistance to therapy, stricture, Barrett''s esophagus and aspiration. Severe reflux esophagitis, often resistant to H2RA therapy, requires more potent treatment with potent acid suppression using proton pump inhibitors, often indefinitely. When complicated by stricture, dilatations with potent acid suppression are needed. Barrett''s esophagus is subject to esophagitis, which is no more difficult to treat than other cases of esophagitis. Reflux in Barrett''s esophagus should be treated on its own merits without regard to the presence of Barrett''s epithelium. Dysplasia leading to adenocarcinoma is a different problem, apparently not influenced by reduced exposure to acid. Indications for antireflux surgery are quite limited and should be carefully analyzed as a cost/risk/benefit problem.     

Wild mink (Neovison vison) as sentinels in environmental monitoring

Superficial inguinal lymph nodes from 72 wild boars examined in a previous immunohistochemical (IHC) study on porcine circovirus type 2 (PCV2) were selected for a PCV2 polymerase chain reaction (PCR) analysis. Four of these lymph nodes were PCV2-IHC strongly positive with PMWS histological lesions (outcome 1), 6 weak to mild PCV2-IHC positive without PMWS histological lesions (outcome 2) and 62 PCV2-IHC negative. Considering IHC the gold standard for diagnosis, the aims of the study were to evaluate the suitability of the PCV2-DNA extraction from formalin-fixed and paraffin-embedded (FFPE) tissue and the sensitivity and specificity of PCR under two IHC interpretations criteria: (A) the sample was considered positive if the result was outcome 1; (B) the sample was considered positive if the result was outcome 1 or 2. Under (A) criteria, sensitivity and specificity of PCR were 100% and 89.7%, respectively; the Cohen's Kappa coefficient was 0.49. Under (B) criteria, sensitivity and specificity of PCR were 80.0% and 95.2%, respectively; the Cohen's Kappa coefficient was 0.72. The high Cohen's Kappa coefficient under the (B) interpretative criteria indicates good agreement between the two methods. In conclusion, 1) DNA extracted from FFPE specimens of wild boar is suitable for PCR and further represents a screening test for PCV2/PCVD (PCV2 Diseases) investigations in wild boar as well; 2) routine histological sampling can also be useful for PCV2 virological studies in wild boar.     

Female genotype affects male success in sperm competition

The central question addressed by most studies of sperm competition is: ''what determines which male''s sperm are used at fertilization?'' Empirical and theoretical studies that address this question have traditionally focused on adaptations which enhance male fertilization success while treating the female as a receptacle in which sperm competition is played out. Here we provide evidence which suggests that female genotype strongly influences the outcome of sperm competition. When the sperm of two males are in competition the proportion of offspring fathered by the second male to mate (P₂) was found to be highly repeatable only if the male pair were mated to three different, but genetically similar females (full-sisters to each other; unrelated to either of the males). In contrast, if a male pair were mated to three females that were unrelated then P₂ was either non-repeatable or marginally repeatable. We also show that male success in sperm competition is determined, to a large extent, by gamete and/or male–female compatibility. This conclusion is derived from the observation that P₂ was repeatable among full-sisters mated to different, yet genetically similar male pairings, whilst P₂ was non-repeatable among full-sisters mated to different, genetically distinct male pairings.     

Methods for analysing cardiovascular studies with repeated measures

Background. Repeated measurements in a single subject are generally more similar than unrepeated measurements in different subjects. Unrepeated analyses of repeated data cause underestimation of the treatment effects. Objective. To review methods adequate for the analysis of cardiovascular studies with repeated measures. Results. (1) For between-subjects comparisons, summary measures and random-effects mixedlinear models are possible. Examples of summary measures include the area under the curve of drug time-concentration and time-efficacy curves, maximal values, mean values, and changes from baseline. A problem is that precision is lost because averages, rather than individual data, are applied. Random-effects mixed-linear models, available in SPSS statistical software and other software programmes, provide better precision for that purpose. (2) For within-subjects comparisons, repeated-measures ANOVAs are available in SPSS and other software programmes. Subgroup factors such as gender differences and age class can be included. Discussion. For non-Gaussian data, Wilcoxon's and Friedman's tests are available, for binary data McNemar's tests can be used in case of two repeated observations. No standard methods are available for repeated binary measures with more than two observations. The purpose of this review was not to present a complete report but, rather, to underline that ample efforts should be made to account for the special nature of repeated measures. (Neth Heart J 2009;17:429–33.)     

Probabilistic participation in public goods games

Voluntary participation in public goods games (PGGs) has turned out to be a simple but effective mechanism for promoting cooperation under full anonymity. Voluntary participation allows individuals to adopt a risk-aversion strategy, termed loner. A loner refuses to participate in unpromising public enterprises and instead relies on a small but fixed pay-off. This system leads to a cyclic dominance of three pure strategies, cooperators, defectors and loners, but at the same time, there remain two considerable restrictions: the addition of loners cannot stabilize the dynamics and the time average pay-off for each strategy remains equal to the pay-off of loners. Here, we introduce probabilistic participation in PGGs from the standpoint of diversification of risk, namely simple mixed strategies with loners, and prove the existence of a dynamical regime in which the restrictions ono longer hold. Considering two kinds of mixed strategies associated with participants (cooperators or defectors) and non-participants (loners), we can recover all basic evolutionary dynamics of the two strategies: dominance; coexistence; bistability; and neutrality, as special cases depending on pairs of probabilities. Of special interest is that the expected pay-off of each mixed strategy exceeds the pay-off of loners at some interior equilibrium in the coexistence region.     

Follow-up Study of Patients With Cerebral Palsy

Of 319 patients with cerebral palsy recalled for reevaluation 15 years after the initial visit, 10 percent had died. Of the living, 55 percent had spasticity, 32 percent had athetosis, 4 percent had ataxia and 9 percent had mixed spasticity and athetosis; 38 percent had an intelligence quotient (IQ) less than 50, 24 percent between 50 and 79, and 38 percent had IQ above 80. There was a high correlation between overall functional outcome and intellectual level. Severity of physical disability, as measured by hand use, mobility and speech, also correlated with dependence, in part because increased severity of the disability was associated with decreased intellectual capacity generally.Twenty-five years after the initial visit, parental attitudes and personality intactness were evaluated (using the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory [MMPI]) and were correlated with satisfaction with status in life in 28 persons predicted to be independent on the 15-year study. Twenty (72 percent) of the 28 were satisfied with their status in life and of these, 16 were evaluated (with the MMPI) with 70 percent scoring in the normal range; 13 (65 percent) had parents with a positive attitude. Positive attitude was defined as parental feelings that the handicapped child was a worthy, valuable person, to be encouraged and assisted but not isolated from the world of nonhandicapped people.Careful serial assessment by professional teams combined with repeated long-term counseling of families can result in optimal outcome for the disability level involved, due to the primary role parents play in the development of a child''s character and behavior.