From the Desk of the Editor-in-Chief

The current problems involving Spain's oversized fishing fleet are explained by the growth of the fleet throughout the 20th Century. This article reviews the birth and development of Spain's distant-water fishing fleet that led to it becoming one of the world's largest fleets, albeit a fleet now devoid of fishing grounds, following the implementation throughout the world of the 200-mile exclusive economic zone.     

Sensitivity of salmonid freshwater life history in western US streams to future climate conditions

We projected effects of mid‐21st century climate on the early life growth of Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and steelhead (O. mykiss) in western United States streams. Air temperature and snowpack trends projected from observed 20th century trends were used to predict future seasonal stream temperatures. Fish growth from winter to summer was projected with temperature‐dependent models of egg development and juvenile growth. Based on temperature data from 115 sites, by mid‐21st century, the effects of climate change are projected to be mixed. Fish in warm‐region streams that are currently cooled by snow melt will grow less, and fish in suboptimally cool streams will grow more. Relative to 20th century conditions, by mid‐21st century juvenile salmonids' weights are expected to be lower in the Columbia Basin and California Central Valley, but unchanged or greater in coastal and mountain streams. Because fish weight affects fish survival, the predicted changes in weight could impact population fitness depending on other factors such as density effects, food quality and quantity changes, habitat alterations, etc. The level of year‐to‐year variability in stream temperatures is high and our analysis suggests that identifying effects of climate change over the natural variability will be difficult except in a few streams.     

海洋生物技术催生蓝色生物经济

海洋生物技术是20世纪末国际出现的前沿技术,至今发展势头良好,方兴未艾。在全球经济面临转型换代的关键时刻,蓝色经济渐现端倪。探讨了蓝色生物经济的概念和内涵,评述了海洋生物技术研发前沿与重点应用领域,展望了蓝色生物经济的良好市场前景与可持续发展,提出了加快发展我国蓝色生物经济的策略和建议。     

Reminiscences from the first curator of the whitney-rothschild collection

Dr Ernst Mayr has been one of the seminal figures of 20th century biology. His essential contributions were in the development of the Modern Synthesis in evolutionary biology. His landmark book Systematics and the Origin of Species, was published in 1942 and has long been acknowledged as one of the key foundations of 20th century evolutionary biology. In many subsequent articles and books on evolution and the history and philosophy of biology during the past half century, he has continued to be a key contributor of ideas and inspiration to successive generations of evolutionary biologists. In the first of two ‘Roots’ articles, he describes the early stages of his career and the serendipitous events that furthered it. This article was first presented as a talk, on October 27, 1993, at the 50 year Jubilee celebration of the founding of the Whitney wing, the ornithological section, of the American Museum of Natural History in New York City. In next month's ‘Roots’ article, Dr Mayr will describe the events that led to the founding of the Society for the Study of Evolution in 1946, in St Louis, Missouri.     

The Reversible World of Japanese Coalmining Women

This paper illuminates the social world of Japanese coalminers, with special attention given to women miners as told through their oral accounts and work songs, which historians have not used before. These coalmining women constituted the second largest single occupational category in the early part of the 20th century, yet they still continue to receive little scholarly attention. This investigation has led to a new concept of the world of women coalminers, the so‐called ‘reversible world’, which operated in a specific social and economic context—the dark underground world of the mine and the light world above of conventional society. Uncovering this underground world has enormous significance in fleshing out the identity and spirit of the miners. It challenges historians' stereotypes of the miners as apolitical, apathetic and unaware of the inequities in their work situation. Mining women created their own world under the ground where normal gender roles were partially reversed.     

Past, current, and future of the central European corridor for aquatic invasions in Belarus

We analyzed the role of the waterways of Belarus in the spread of aquatic exotic invertebrates through the central European invasion corridor. Present day Belarus became critically important when in the end of the 18th—beginning of the 19th century three interbasin canals connecting rivers from the Black and Baltic seas basins were constructed for international trade. These canals became important pathways facilitating the spread of aquatic alien species. For more than a hundred years, only Ponto-Caspian species colonized Belarus using ships and especially timber in rafts exported by Russia into Western Europe. In the second half of the 20th century, new vectors of spread appeared in Belarus, such as stocking of economically important invertebrates and accidental introductions. This paper is the first comprehensive review of aquatic exotic invertebrates in Belarus. Currently, 19 exotic aquatic invertebrates are known in Belarus, including 14 species of Ponto-Caspian origin. The rate of spread of aquatic invasive species in the second half of the 20th century increased 7-fold compared to the 19th—beginning of the 20th century. We found a significant positive correlation between the time since initial invasion and number of waterbodies colonized. We predict a further increase in the rate of colonization of Belarus by exotic invertebrates as well as an increase in the diversity of vectors of spread and donor areas of alien species, especially when the ongoing reconstruction of the interbasin canals will be completed and the hydrological connection between Black Sea and Baltic Sea basins will be reestablished after an interruption that has lasted for almost a century.     

Hindcasting of nutrient loadings from its catchment on a highly valuable coastal lagoon: the example of the Fleet, Dorset, UK, 1866–2004

Background

Nutrient loadings from its catchment upon The Fleet, a highly valuable coastal lagoon in Southern England, were hindcast for the period AD 1866–2004, using a catchment model, export coefficients, and historical data on land use changes, livestock numbers, and human population. Agriculture was the main nutrient source throughout, other inputs representing minor contributions. Permanent pasture was historically the main land use, with temporary grassland and cereals increasing during the mid-20th century. Sheep, the main 19th century livestock, were replaced by cattle during the 1930s.

Results

Total nitrogen loadings rose from ca 41 t yr-1 during the late 19th century to 49–54 t yr-1 for the mid-20th, increasing to 98 t yr-1 by 1986. Current values are ca 77 t yr-1. Total phosphorus loads increased from ca 0.75 t yr-1 for the late 19th century to ca 1.6 t yr-1 for the mid-20th, reached ca 2.2 t yr-1 in 1986, and are now ca 1.5 t yr-1. Loadings rose most rapidly between 1946 and 1988, owing to increased use of inorganic fertilisers, and rising sheep and cattle numbers. Livestock were the main nutrient source throughout, but inputs from inorganic fertilisers increased after 1946, peaking in 1986. Sewage treatment works and other sources contribute little nitrogen, but ca 35% of total phosphorus. Abbotsbury Swannery, an ancient Mute Swan community, provides ca 0.5% of total nitrogen, and ca 5% of total phosphorus inputs.

Conclusion

The Fleet has been grossly overloaded with nitrogen since 1866, climaxing during the 1980s. Total phosphorus inputs lay below 'permissible' limits until the 1980s, exceeding them in inner, less tidal parts of the lagoon, during the 1940s. Loadings on Abbotsbury Bay exceeded 'permissible' limits by the 1860s, becoming 'dangerous' during the mid-20th century. Phosphorus stripping at point sources will not significantly reduce loadings to all parts of the lagoon. Installation of 5 m buffer strips throughout the catchment and shoreline will marginally affect nitrogen loadings, but will reduce phosphorus inputs to the West Fleet below 'permissible' limits. Only a combination of measures will significantly affect Abbotsbury Bay, where, without effluent diversion, loadings will remain beyond 'permissible'.     

Cold spot microrefugia hold the key to survival for Brazil's Critically Endangered Araucaria tree

Brazil's Araucaria tree (Araucaria angustifolia) is an iconic living fossil and a defining element of the Atlantic Forest global biodiversity hotspot. But despite more than two millennia as a cultural icon in southern Brazil, Araucaria is on the brink of extinction, having lost 97% of its extent to 20th‐century logging. Although logging is now illegal, 21st‐century climate change constitutes a new—but so far unevaluated—threat to Araucaria's future survival. We use a robust ensemble modelling approach, using recently developed climate data, high‐resolution topography and fine‐scale vegetation maps, to predict the species' response to climate change and its implications for conservation on meso‐ and microclimate scales. We show that climate‐only models predict the total disappearance of Araucaria's most suitable habitat by 2070, but incorporating topographic effects allows potential highland microrefugia to be identified. The legacy of 20th‐century destruction is evident—more than a third of these likely holdouts have already lost their natural vegetation—and 21st‐century climate change will leave just 3.5% of remnant forest and 28.4% of highland grasslands suitable for Araucaria. Existing protected areas cover only 2.5% of the surviving microrefugia for this culturally important species, and none occur in any designated indigenous territory. Our results suggest that anthropogenic climate change is likely to commit Araucaria to a second consecutive century of significant losses, but targeted interventions could help ensure its survival in the wild.     

Plant drugs in the twenty-first century

Lack of effective cooperation among researchers in the applicable biological, physical, and clinical sciences has accounted, in large measure, for the lack of successful development in the United States of any significant number of new plant drugs during the latter part of the 20th century. Unrealistic federal regulations that tend to render unprofitable such research have also played an important role in hindering the development of new plant drugs. It is likely that both of these factors will change in the future as health-conscious consumers demand more accurate information and wider availability of natural drug products. Several anticipated developments will greatly facilitate research and production in this previously difficult area. These include the development of new, simplified bioassay procedures; improved, easily applied analytical methods; and innovative plant-cell-culture methodologies, possibly involving genetic manipulation. The kinds of drugs that need to be developed using such techniques are discussed. It is concluded that significant new plant drugs and new methods of producing them will be developed to serve mankind during the 21st century.     

Determinants of human population growth

The 20th century has seen unprecedented growth of the human population on this planet. While at the beginning of the century the Earth had an estimated 1.6 billion inhabitants, this number grew to 6.1 billion by the end of the century, and further significant growth is a near certainty. This paper tries to summarize what factors lie behind this extraordinary expansion of the human population and what population growth we can expect for the future. It discusses the concept of demographic transition and the preconditions for a lasting secular fertility decline. Recent fertility declines in all parts of the world now make it likely that human population growth will come to an end over the course of this century, but in parts of the developing world significant population growth is still to be expected over the coming decades. The slowing of population growth through declining birth rates, together with still increasing life expectancy, will result in a strong ageing of population age structure. Finally, this paper presents a global level systematic analysis of the relationship between population density on the one hand, and growth and fertility rates on the other. This analysis indicates that in addition to the well-studied social and economic determinants, population density also presents a significant factor for the levels and trends of human birth rates.     

The biological sciences in India: Aiming high for the future

India is gearing up to become an international player in the life sciences, powered by its recent economic growth and a desire to add biotechnology to its portfolio. In this article, we present the history, current state, and projected future growth of biological research in India. To fulfill its aspirations, India''s greatest challenge will be in educating, recruiting, and supporting its next generation of scientists. Such challenges are faced by the US/Europe, but are particularly acute in developing countries that are racing to achieve scientific excellence, perhaps faster than their present educational and faculty support systems will allow.India, like China, has been riding a rising economic wave. At the time of writing this article, four Indians rank among the ten wealthiest individuals in the world, and the middle class is projected to rise to 40% of the population by 2025 (Farrell and Beinhocker, 2007). Even with the present global economic setbacks, India''s economy is expected to grow to become the third largest in the world. India''s recent economic boom has been driven largely by its service and information technology industries, fueled to a large extent by jobs provided by multinational companies. However, this “outsourcing” model is unlikely to persist indefinitely. India''s future must rely upon its own capacity for innovation, which will require considerable investment in education and research.Biotechnology represents a potential sector of economic growth and an important component in India''s national health agenda. Appreciating the important role that biology will play in this century, the Indian government is expanding as well as starting several new biological research institutes, which will open up many new positions for life science researchers. Funds also are becoming available for state-of-the-art equipment, thus decreasing the earlier large disparity in support facilities between the top research institutes in India and the US/Europe. India is becoming an increasingly viable location to conduct biological research and a fertile ground for new biotechnology companies. However, success need not rise in proportion to money invested, unless India attracts and supports its best young people to do research.Many academic centers and industries in the US/Europe are beginning to have an eye on India, the world''s largest democratic country, for possible collaborations. Western institutions have long benefited from having Indian scientists on their faculty or postdoctoral fellows/graduate students in their laboratories (perhaps benefitting more than India itself). However, Western scientists, by and large, know very little about the scientific and educational systems in India. (As was true of authors of this article before we began our 8-month sabbatical at the National Center for Biological Sciences in Bangalore). The goal of this article is to provide a brief historical and contemporary view of the biological sciences in India. We also provide an editorial perspective on the upcoming challenges for the Indian life sciences, with a particular emphasis on how India will grow and support its next generation of scientific leaders.     

Bevölkerungswachstum: Bildung ist die Lösung

Population growth – education is the answer Over the last decades world population has been constantly growing by some 80 million per year. Whereas the growth rate as well as the fertility rate have been cut by half since the 1970th, population growth will continue well over mid‐century. As the developed countries have completed the demographic transition from high mortality and fertility rates to low ones, population growth is fading out there or has already been reversed into decline. In the least developed countries mortality has fallen as well, whereas fertility decline has stalled. Therefor population growth is very high making the solution of the widespread problems in this part of the world more and more difficult. One obvious way out of this trap would be a better education that could open new development perspectives. A positive side effect is that educated women have much less offspring than their counterparts who never went to school.     

Stray Dogs in an Island Community: A Case Study From New Providence,The Bahamas

The "stray dog problem" in New Providence, The Bahamas, has been a recurring social complaint throughout the 20th century. This article looks at some aspects of the problem's background and reports the findings of a resident perception study. The results suggest that it is unlikely that short-term policies will be successful in eradicating free-roaming dogs from the island.     

Hubs and Authorities in the World Trade Network Using a Weighted HITS Algorithm

We investigate the economic hubs and authorities of the world trade network (WTN) from to , an era of rapid economic globalization. Using a well-defined weighted hyperlink-induced topic search (HITS) algorithm, we can calculate the values of the weighted HITS hub and authority for each country in a conjugate way. In the context of the WTN, authority values are large for countries with significant imports from large hub countries, and hub values are large for countries with significant exports to high-authority countries. The United States was the largest economic authority in the WTN from to . The authority value of the United States has declined since , and China has now become the largest hub in the WTN. At the same time, China''s authority value has grown as China is transforming itself from the “factory of the world” to the “market of the world.” European countries show a tendency to trade mostly within the European Union, which has decreased Europe''s hub and authority values. Japan''s authority value has increased slowly, while its hub value has declined. These changes are consistent with Japan''s transition from being an export-driven economy in its high economic growth era in the latter half of the twentieth century to being a more mature, economically balanced nation.     

Observations on the history of Dutch physical stature from the late-Middle Ages to the present

In the late-Middle Ages and at the onset of the early modern period, the Dutch population was taller than in the first half of the 19th century. This inference is partially based on skeletal evidence, mainly collected by the Dutch physical anthropologist George Maat and his co-workers. A spectacular increase in Dutch heights began in the second half of the 19th century and accelerated in the second half of the 20th century. At the end of the 20th century, the Dutch became tallest in the world.     

From the tallest to (one of) the fattest: the enigmatic fate of the American population in the 20th century

Within the course of the 20th century the American population went through a virtual metamorphosis from being the tallest in the world, to being among the most overweight. The American height advantage over Western and Northern Europeans was between 3 and 9 cm in mid-19th century, and Americans tended to be underweight. However, today, the exact opposite is the case as the Dutch, Swedes, and Norwegians are the tallest, and the Danes, British and Germans--even the East-Germans--are also taller, towering over the Americans by as much as 3-7 cm. Americans also have shorter lives. The hypothesis is worth considering that this adverse development is related to the greater social inequality, an inferior health care system, and fewer social safety nets in the United States than in Western and Northern Europe, in spite of higher per capita income. The Western and Northern European welfare states, with cradle to grave health and unemployment insurance currently seems to provide a more propitious environment for the biological standard of living than its US counterpart.     

Higaûnon Resistance and Ethnic Politics in Northern Mindanao1

The root causes of armed aggression among Higaûnon people in northern Mindanao, Philippines, have changed over the centuries. Prior to the 20th century, its primary aim was raiding for slaves and for redress of personal grievances. At the turn of the 20th century, armed aggression became tied to the loss of ancestral lands, an issue which grew more acute as Mindanao became the target of government resettlement policies and economic ventures. In the 1970s, Higaûnon aggression culminated in the ‘Higaûnon War’ against commercial logging on their ancestral lands. Rhetoric employed in this ‘war’ changed over the years, from limited personal grievances to Marxist ideology to radical environmentalism, all of which have engendered violent responses from the government. Recently, Higaûnons have conflated environmentalist rhetoric with expressions of their ethnic identity, and emphasised their economic as well as cultural dependence on the land. This peaceful strategy has produced some positive results but, because of continuing land insecurity, it has not completely eliminated the prospect of armed aggression in the future.     

梅花和蜡梅被西方世界认识的历史考证

文中收集、整理了自17世纪至20世纪共22位西方学者(包括西方化的日本学者)认识、命名、收集、培育梅花Prunus mume、蜡梅Chimonanthus praecox的文献资料及其历史贡献,并比较两种植物被西方世界认识的历史差异,分析成因。最后探讨梅花、蜡梅在世界范围内推广的困境及原因。     

The Archaeal Concept and the World it Lives in: A Retrospective

The present retrospective concerns the discovery and development of the archaea, the so-called 'third form of life' that no one anticipated and many did not, and still do not want. In its birth pangs, which the archaea had a plenty, the concept encountered biology unmasked; for it ran up against some of the key struts in the 20th century biological edifice. Consequently, the history of the development of the archaeal concept provides an excellent window on certain of the weaknesses in the 20th century biology paradigm, weaknesses that have now led that paradigm to a conceptual dead end. On the other hand, the archaeal concept has also provided us one of the pillars on which a new holistic paradigm for biology can be built. So, it would seem of value to retrace some of the twists and turns in the history of the development of the archaeal concept. Given my position vis-à-vis the archaea, my account will be a personal one.     

Fertility decline driven by poverty: the case of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Demographic transition theory states that fertility declines in response to development, thus wealth and fertility are negatively correlated. Evolutionary theory, however, suggests a positive relationship between wealth and fertility. Fertility transition as a result of industrialization and economic development started in the late 19th and early 20th centuries in Western Europe; and it extended to some of the Asian and Latin American countries later on. However, economic crises since the 1980s have been co-incident with fertility decline in sub-Sahara Africa and other developing countries like Thailand, Nepal and Bangladesh in the last decade of the 20th century. A very low level of fertility is observed in Addis Ababa (TFR=1.9) where contraceptive prevalence rate is modest and recurrent famine as well as drought have been major causes of economic crisis in the country for more than three consecutive decades, which is surprising given the high rural fertility. Detailed socioeconomic and demographic characteristics of 2976 women of reproductive age (i.e. 15-49 years) residing in Addis Ababa were collected during the first quarter of 2003 using an event history calendar and individual women questionnaire. Controlling for the confounding effects of maternal birth cohort, education, marital status and accessible income level, the poor (those who have access to less than a dollar per day or 250 birr a month) were observed to elongate the timing of having first and second births, while relatively better-off women were found to have shorter birth intervals. Results were also the same among the ever-married women only model. More than 50% of women currently in their 20s are also predicted to fail to reproduce as most of the unmarried men and women are 'retreating from marriage' due to economic stress. Qualitative information collected through focus group discussions and in-depth interviews also supports the statistical findings that poverty is at the root of this collapse in fertility. Whilst across countries wealth and fertility have been negatively correlated, this study shows that within one uniform population the relationship is clearly positive.