Correlations in fossil extinction and origination rates through geological time

Recent analyses have suggested that extinction and origination rates exhibit long-range correlations, implying that the fossil record may be controlled by self-organized criticality or other scale-free internal dynamics of the biosphere. Here we directly test for correlations in the fossil record by calculating the autocorrelation of extinction [corrected] and origination rates through time. Our results show that extinction rates are uncorrelated beyond the average duration of a stratigraphic interval. Thus, they lack the long-range correlations predicted by the self-organized criticality hypothesis. In contrast, origination rates show strong autocorrelations due to long-term trends. After detrending, origination rates generally show weak positive correlations at lags of 5-10 million years (Myr) and weak negative correlations at lags of 10-30 Myr, consistent with aperiodic oscillations around their long-term trends. We hypothesize that origination rates are more correlated than extinction rates because originations of new taxa create new ecological niches and new evolutionary pathways for reaching them, thus creating conditions that favour further diversification.     

Global Taxonomic Diversity of Anomodonts (Tetrapoda,Therapsida) and the Terrestrial Rock Record Across the Permian-Triassic Boundary

The end-Permian biotic crisis (∼252.5 Ma) represents the most severe extinction event in Earth''s history. This paper investigates diversity patterns in Anomodontia, an extinct group of therapsid synapsids (‘mammal-like reptiles’), through time and in particular across this event. As herbivores and the dominant terrestrial tetrapods of their time, anomodonts play a central role in assessing the impact of the end-Permian extinction on terrestrial ecosystems. Taxonomic diversity analysis reveals that anomodonts experienced three distinct phases of diversification interrupted by the same number of extinctions, i.e. an end-Guadalupian, an end-Permian, and a mid-Triassic extinction. A positive correlation between the number of taxa and the number of formations per time interval shows that anomodont diversity is biased by the Permian-Triassic terrestrial rock record. Normalized diversity curves indicate that anomodont richness continuously declines from the Middle Permian to the Late Triassic, but also reveals all three extinction events. Taxonomic rates (origination and extinction) indicate that the end-Guadalupian and end-Permian extinctions were driven by increased rates of extinction as well as low origination rates. However, this pattern is not evident at the final decline of anomodont diversity during the Middle Triassic. Therefore, it remains unclear whether the Middle Triassic extinction represents a gradual or abrupt event that is unique to anomodonts or more common among terrestrial tetrapods. The end-Permian extinction represents the most distinct event in terms of decline in anomodont richness and turnover rates.     

Amniotes through major biological crises: faunal turnover among Parareptiles and the end‐Permian mass extinction

Abstract: The Parareptilia are a small but ecologically and morphologically diverse clade of Permian and Triassic crown amniotes generally considered to be phylogenetically more proximal to eureptiles (diapsids and their kin) than to synapsids (mammals and their kin). A recent supertree provides impetus for an analysis of parareptile diversity through time and for examining the influence of the end‐Permian mass extinction on the clade’s origination and extinction rates. Phylogeny‐corrected measures of diversity have a significant impact on both rates and the distribution of origination and extinction intensities. Time calibration generally results in a closer correspondence between origination and extinction rate values than in the case of no time correction. Near the end‐Permian event, extinction levels are not significantly higher than origination levels, particularly when time calibration is introduced. Finally, regardless of time calibration and/or phylogenetic correction, the distribution of rates does not differ significantly from unimodal. The curves of rate values are discussed in the light of the numbers and distributions of both range extensions and ghost lineages. The disjoint time distributions of major parareptile clades (e.g. procolophonoids and nycteroleterids‐pareiasaurs) are mostly responsible for the occurrence of long‐range extensions throughout the Permian. Available data are not consistent with a model of sudden decline at the end‐Permian but rather suggest a rapid alternation of originations and extinctions in a number of parareptile groups, both before and after the Permian/Triassic boundary.     

Testing reduced evolutionary rates during the Late Palaeozoic Ice Age using the crinoid fossil record

In 2003, Stanley & Powell reported depressed rates of origination and extinction in marine invertebrates during the Late Palaeozoic Ice Age (LPIA). Using a database of crinoid genera, rates of origination, extinction and genus duration were calculated at the stage level from the Early Devonian to the Late Permian. This 165 m.y. time span includes non‐glacial intervals before and after the LPIA, which spanned the Serpukhovian to Sakmarian, providing background rates for comparison. Data generated on crinoid evolutionary rates during the Middle to Late Palaeozoic were analysed and compared to Stanley & Powell's data to determine whether crinoid evolutionary patterns support their findings or suggest an alternative hypothesis. Rates of origination and extinction in all crinoid clades were reduced during the LPIA compared to the combined background intervals before and after the LPIA. However, crinoid diversity was higher during the LPIA than the surrounding time intervals. The difference in diversity trends between crinoids and other marine invertebrates is due to the advanced cladids clade. Unstable, fluctuating environmental conditions during the LPIA may have created habitats suitable for opportunistic crinoid genera that reduced both the probability of origination and extinction. The increased diversity of the advanced cladids is likely due to their unique adaptation of muscular arm articulations, which allowed them to thrive in marine settings with increased siliciclastic influx brought on by the Alleghenian orogeny. Despite the advanced cladids’ departure from the expected diversity count, the results of analyses performed on the updated crinoid database provide independent confirmation of Stanley & Powell's original hypothesis of depressed evolutionary rates in marine invertebrates during the LPIA.     

Rates of speciation in the fossil record

Data from palaeontology and biodiversity suggest that the global biota should produce an average of three new species per year. However, the fossil record shows large variation around this mean. Rates of origination have declined through the Phanerozoic. This appears to have been largely a function of sorting among higher taxa (especially classes), which exhibit characteristic rates of speciation (and extinction) that differ among them by nearly an order of magnitude. Secular decline of origination rates is hardly constant, however; many positive deviations reflect accelerated speciation during rebounds from mass extinctions. There has also been general decline in rates of speciation within major taxa through their histories, although rates have tended to remain higher among members in tropical regions. Finally, pulses of speciation appear sometimes to be associated with climate change, although moderate oscillations of climate do not necessarily promote speciation despite forcing changes in species' geographical ranges.     

Maxima im Tempo der Evolution karbonischer Ammonoideen

On the basis of evolutionary rates several maxima and minima in the diversity of ammonoids can be recognized during Upper Devonian and Carboniferous times. The development of new characters, the beginning and continuation of phylogenetic trends and the origination as well as the extinction of bradytelic genera are restricted to diversity maxima.     

Environmental drivers of crocodyliform extinction across the Jurassic/Cretaceous transition

Crocodyliforms have a much richer evolutionary history than represented by their extant descendants, including several independent marine and terrestrial radiations during the Mesozoic. However, heterogeneous sampling of their fossil record has obscured their macroevolutionary dynamics, and obfuscated attempts to reconcile external drivers of these patterns. Here, we present a comprehensive analysis of crocodyliform biodiversity through the Jurassic/Cretaceous (J/K) transition using subsampling and phylogenetic approaches and apply maximum-likelihood methods to fit models of extrinsic variables to assess what mediated these patterns. A combination of fluctuations in sea-level and episodic perturbations to the carbon and sulfur cycles was primarily responsible for both a marine and non-marine crocodyliform biodiversity decline through the J/K boundary, primarily documented in Europe. This was tracked by high extinction rates at the boundary and suppressed origination rates throughout the Early Cretaceous. The diversification of Eusuchia and Notosuchia likely emanated from the easing of ecological pressure resulting from the biodiversity decline, which also culminated in the extinction of the marine thalattosuchians in the late Early Cretaceous. Through application of rigorous techniques for estimating biodiversity, our results demonstrate that it is possible to tease apart the complex array of controls on diversification patterns in major archosaur clades.     

CALIBRATED DIVERSITY,TREE TOPOLOGY AND THE MOTHER OF MASS EXTINCTIONS: THE LESSON OF TEMNOSPONDYLS

Abstract: Three family‐level cladistic analyses of temnospondyl amphibians are used to evaluate the impact of taxonomic rank, tree topology, and sample size on diversity profiles, origination and extinction rates, and faunal turnover. Temnospondyls are used as a case study for investigating replacement of families across the Permo‐Triassic boundary and modality of recovery in the aftermath of the end‐Permian mass extinction. Both observed and inferred (i.e. tree topology‐dependent) values of family diversity have a negligible effect on the shape of the diversity curve. However, inferred values produce both a flattening of the curve throughout the Cisuralian and a less pronounced increase in family diversity from Tatarian through to Induan than do observed values. Diversity curves based upon counts of genera and species display a clearer distinction between peaks and troughs. We use rarefaction techniques (specifically, rarefaction of the number of genera and species within families) to evaluate the effect of sampling size on the curve of estimated family‐level diversity during five time bins (Carboniferous; Cisuralian; Guadalupian–Lopingian; Early Triassic; Middle Triassic–Cretaceous). After applying rarefaction, we note that Cisuralian and Early Triassic diversity values are closer to one another than they are when the observed number of families is used; both values are also slightly higher than the Carboniferous estimated diversity. The Guadalupian–Lopingian value is lower than raw data indicate, reflecting in part the depauperate land vertebrate diversity from the late Cisuralian to the middle Guadalupian (Olson’s gap). The time‐calibrated origination and extinction rate trajectories plot out close to one another and show a peak in the Induan, regardless of the tree used to construct them. Origination and extinction trajectories are disjunct in at least some Palaeozoic intervals, and background extinctions exert a significant role in shaping temnospondyl diversity in the lowermost Triassic. Finally, species‐, genus‐, and family trajectories consistently reveal a rapid increase in temnospondyl diversity from latest Permian to earliest Triassic as well as a decline near the end of the Cisuralian. However, during the rest of the Cisuralian family diversity increases slightly and there is no evidence for a steady decline, contrary to previous reports.     

Biodiversity and biogeography of middle–late liassic ammonoids: implications for the early Toarcian mass extinction

In Western Tethyan areas, the Toarcian stage begins with two important evolutionary events in ammonite faunas: (1) the disruption of Tethyan–Boreal provinciality; (2) a biological crisis linked with the oceanic anoxic event OAE. The analysis of these events has been addressed by constructing curves of ammonoid diversity (species richness, origination and extinction rates) in the Late Pliensbachian (= Domerian)–Early Toarcian interval in selected localities. Two diversity drops are recognized. The first one is recorded at the end of the Dactylioceras mirabile subzone and reflects the disruption of Tethyan–Boreal provinciality, through the progressive extinction of the Boreal endemic family Amaltheidae that occupied the north-western European seas during the whole Pliensbachian on the one hand, and the extinction of Late Domerian Ammonitina endemic to the Mediterranean areas on the other hand. The Early Toarcian homogeneization of Mediterranean and north-western European ammonoid faunas was reached via elimination of both Boreal and Mediterranean endemics with differential rates of extinction in the two palaeogeographic domains and the subsequent geographical expansion of Tethyan-derived ammonoids. The second, dramatic drop in ammonite diversity in the upper part of the Dactylioceras semicelatum subzone coincided with the onset of OAE. It also affected epioceanic ammonoid clades like Phyllocerataceae and Lytocerataceae. These two drops are interpreted as two distinct extinctions and not as episodes of a single, stepwise event. Complex relations between ammonoid diversity and sea-level changes are suggested by trends in endemism, which may be reversed during either a single transgression or a single regression.     

Stabilizing the dynamics of laboratory populations of Drosophila melanogaster through upper and lower limiter controls

Although a large number of methods exist to control the dynamics of populations to a desired state, few of them have been empirically validated. This limits the scope of using these methods in real-life scenarios. To address this issue, we tested the efficacy of two well-known control methods in enhancing different kinds of stability in highly fluctuating, extinction-prone populations of Drosophila melanogaster. The upper limiter control (ULC) method was able to reduce the fluctuations in population sizes as well as the extinction probability of the populations. On the negative side, it had no effect on the effective population size and required a large amount of effort. On the other hand, lower limiter control (LLC) enhanced effective population size and reduced extinction probability at a relatively low amount of effort. However, its effects on population fluctuations were equivocal. We examined the population size distributions, with and without the control methods, to derive biologically intuitive explanations for how these control methods work. We also show that biologically realistic simulations, using a very general population dynamics model, are able to capture most of the trends of our data. This suggests that our results are likely to be generalizable to a wide range of scenarios.     

Common European birds are declining rapidly while less abundant species' numbers are rising

Biodiversity is undergoing unprecedented global decline. Efforts to slow this rate have focused foremost on rarer species, which are at most risk of extinction. Less interest has been paid to more common species, despite their greater importance in terms of ecosystem function and service provision. How rates of decline are partitioned between common and less abundant species remains unclear. Using a 30‐year data set of 144 bird species, we examined Europe‐wide trends in avian abundance and biomass. Overall, avian abundance and biomass are both declining with most of this decline being attributed to more common species, while less abundant species showed an overall increase in both abundance and biomass. If overall avian declines are mainly due to reductions in a small number of common species, conservation efforts targeted at rarer species must be better matched with efforts to increase overall bird numbers, if ecological impacts of birds are to be maintained.     

Extinction, ecological opportunity, and the origins of global snake diversity

Snake diversity varies by at least two orders of magnitude among extant lineages, with numerous groups containing only one or two species, and several young clades exhibiting exceptional richness (>700 taxa). With a phylogeny containing all known families and subfamilies, we find that these patterns cannot be explained by background rates of speciation and extinction. The majority of diversity appears to derive from a radiation within the superfamily Colubroidea, potentially stemming from the colonization of new areas and the evolution of advanced venom-delivery systems. In contrast, negative relationships between clade age, clade size, and diversification rate suggest the potential for possible bias in estimated diversification rates, interpreted by some recent authors as support for ecologically mediated limits on diversity. However, evidence from the fossil record indicates that numerous lineages were far more diverse in the past, and that extinction has had an important impact on extant diversity patterns. Thus, failure to adequately account for extinction appears to prevent both rate- and diversity-limited models from fully characterizing richness dynamics in snakes. We suggest that clade-level extinction may provide a key mechanism for explaining negative or hump-shaped relationships between clade age and diversity, and the prevalence of ancient, species-poor lineages in numerous groups.     

Evolutionary dynamics of taxonomic structure

The distribution of species among genera and higher taxa has largely untapped potential to reveal among-clade variation in rates of origination and extinction. The probability distribution of the number of species within a genus is modelled with a stochastic, time-homogeneous birth-death model having two parameters: the rate of species extinction, μ, and the rate of genus origination, γ, each scaled as a multiple of the rate of within-genus speciation, λ. The distribution is more sensitive to γ than to μ, although μ affects the size of the largest genera. The species : genus ratio depends strongly on both γ and μ, and so is not a good diagnostic of evolutionary dynamics. The proportion of monotypic genera, however, depends mainly on γ, and so may provide an index of the genus origination rate. Application to living marine molluscs of New Zealand shows that bivalves have a higher relative rate of genus origination than gastropods. This is supported by the analysis of palaeontological data. This concordance suggests that analysis of living taxonomic distributions may allow inference of macroevolutionary dynamics even without a fossil record.     

A long-term association between global temperature and biodiversity, origination and extinction in the fossil record

The past relationship between global temperature and levels of biological diversity is of increasing concern due to anthropogenic climate warming. However, no consistent link between these variables has yet been demonstrated. We analysed the fossil record for the last 520 Myr against estimates of low latitude sea surface temperature for the same period. We found that global biodiversity (the richness of families and genera) is related to temperature and has been relatively low during warm 'greenhouse' phases, while during the same phases extinction and origination rates of taxonomic lineages have been relatively high. These findings are consistent for terrestrial and marine environments and are robust to a number of alternative assumptions and potential biases. Our results provide the first clear evidence that global climate may explain substantial variation in the fossil record in a simple and consistent manner. Our findings may have implications for extinction and biodiversity change under future climate warming.     

High-resolution biochronology and diversity dynamics of the Early Triassic ammonoid recovery: The Smithian faunas of the Northern Indian Margin

Based on new collections of abundant and well preserved material from the Salt Range (Pakistan), Spiti (Northern India) and Tulong (South Tibet), several recent studies focused on the taxonomic revision and detailed biostratigraphy of Smithian ammonoids. In this work, biochronological data for these three well-documented basins are analyzed by means of the Unitary Associations method, resulting in a biochronological scheme of unprecedented high-resolution for the Smithian of the Northern Indian Margin (NIM). Data for each basin are first processed separately, thus yielding three local biochronological zonations. Then, the three sequences are processed together as a regional three-section data set for the construction of an inter-basin sequence at the NIM level. The latter zonation comprises 16 Unitary Associations grouped into 13 zones for the entire Smithian. Analysis of ammonoid diversity dynamics based on this new highly resolved time frame highlights (i) a marked diversification during the early Smithian, (ii) a severe extinction during the late Smithian, and (iii) an overall very high turnover throughout the Smithian. At a global spatial scale and stage resolution, the diversity of Smithian ammonoid genera appears surprisingly high, as highlighted by a previous study. It is shown that at a smaller geographic scale and with the most highly resolved time frame, Smithian ammonoids of the NIM reached their explosive diversity peak essentially through extremely high turnover rates rather than through a classic diversification process of high origination rates coupled with low extinction rates. Based on recently published U/Pb ages, regional apparent total rates of origination and extinction of more than 100 species per My can be inferred for the Smithian ammonoids of the NIM.     

Phylogenetic Clustering of Origination and Extinction across the Late Ordovician Mass Extinction

Mass extinctions can have dramatic effects on the trajectory of life, but in some cases the effects can be relatively small even when extinction rates are high. For example, the Late Ordovician mass extinction is the second most severe in terms of the proportion of genera eliminated, yet is noted for the lack of ecological consequences and shifts in clade dominance. By comparison, the end-Cretaceous mass extinction was less severe but eliminated several major clades while some rare surviving clades diversified in the Paleogene. This disconnect may be better understood by incorporating the phylogenetic relatedness of taxa into studies of mass extinctions, as the factors driving extinction and recovery are thought to be phylogenetically conserved and should therefore promote both origination and extinction of closely related taxa. Here, we test whether there was phylogenetic selectivity in extinction and origination using brachiopod genera from the Middle Ordovician through the Devonian. Using an index of taxonomic clustering (R_CL) as a proxy for phylogenetic clustering, we find that A) both extinctions and originations shift from taxonomically random or weakly clustered within families in the Ordovician to strongly clustered in the Silurian and Devonian, beginning with the recovery following the Late Ordovician mass extinction, and B) the Late Ordovician mass extinction was itself only weakly clustered. Both results stand in stark contrast to Cretaceous-Cenozoic bivalves, which showed significant levels of taxonomic clustering of extinctions in the Cretaceous, including strong clustering in the mass extinction, but taxonomically random extinctions in the Cenozoic. The contrasting patterns between the Late Ordovician and end-Cretaceous events suggest a complex relationship between the phylogenetic selectivity of mass extinctions and the long-term phylogenetic signal in origination and extinction patterns.     

ISLAND BIOGEOGRAPHY AND PALAEOBIOLOGY: IN SEARCH FOR EVOLUTIONARY EQUILIBRIA

1. The concept of evolutionary equilibrium has been derived from the theory of island biogeography via an ecological rationale for increase in species extinction rate and decrease in speciation rate with increasing diversity of the system.
2. This concept is theoretically plausible at the species level and at a regional scale but, in spite of several empirical tests in the fossil record, it has thus far remained unsupported by empirical evidence. In order to test it conclusively, one has to analyze not only the pattern of species number through time but also its relationship to speciation and species extinction rates; independent evidence for perturbations must also be available.
3. The concept of evolutionary equilibrium at the global scale must be extrapolated over higher levels of taxonomic hierarchy, for reliable species-level data are unavailable at this scale. A theoretical justification for this concept cannot, then, be derived from the theory of island biogeography.
4. The rates of family extinction and origination in the Phanerozoic show no evidence for diversity-dependence, which undermines most quantitative models of biotic diversification based on the concept of global evolutionary equilibrium. Rigorous testing of these models cannot be done at the present state of knowledge because of the uncertainty about the empirical pattern (sampling and taxonomic biases, absolute time scale).     

Exploring the major depletions of conodont diversity during the Triassic

In this paper, we show that the Triassic fossil record reflects just two great depletions of conodont diversity before the Rhaetian, which occurred in the Smithian (Olenekian, Early Triassic) and in the Julian (Carnian, Late Triassic). By exploring this context, our results highlighted that they respond to different origination–extinction dynamics. Thus, while the Smithian diversity depletion can be interpreted as a consequence of elevated extinction, the Julian diversity depletion was triggered by fluctuations in origination regime. This evidence suggests that, despite the role of extinction on diversity losses, conodonts suffered crucial changes on the origination regimes during the Late Triassic which triggered these events. Notwithstanding, our results indicate that the end-Triassic diversity depletion of conodonts was produced by background extinction levels in a context of lower origination. This suggests that several biological factors, rather than a unique, environmental and/or cyclic cause, could have influenced the evolutionary history of conodonts during the Triassic.