The genetic effective and adult census size of an Australian population of tiger prawns (Penaeus esculentus)

This study compares estimates of the census size of the spawning population with genetic estimates of effective current and long-term population size for an abundant and commercially important marine invertebrate, the brown tiger prawn (Penaeus esculentus). Our aim was to focus on the relationship between genetic effective and census size that may provide a source of information for viability analyses of naturally occurring populations. Samples were taken in 2001, 2002 and 2003 from a population on the east coast of Australia and temporal allelic variation was measured at eight polymorphic microsatellite loci. Moments-based and maximum-likelihood estimates of current genetic effective population size ranged from 797 to 1304. The mean long-term genetic effective population size was 9968. Although small for a large population, the effective population size estimates were above the threshold where genetic diversity is lost at neutral alleles through drift or inbreeding. Simulation studies correctly predicted that under these experimental conditions the genetic estimates would have non-infinite upper confidence limits and revealed they might be overestimates of the true size. We also show that estimates of mortality and variance in family size may be derived from data on average fecundity, current genetic effective and census spawning population size, assuming effective population size is equivalent to the number of breeders. This work confirms that it is feasible to obtain accurate estimates of current genetic effective population size for abundant Type III species using existing genetic marker technology.     

Reconstructing recent divergence: evaluating nonequilibrium population structure in New Zealand chinook salmon

Newly established or perturbed populations are often the focus of conservation concerns but they pose special challenges for population genetics because drift?migration equilibrium is unlikely. To advance our understanding of the evolution of such populations, we investigated structure and gene flow among populations of chinook salmon that formed via natural straying following introduction to New Zealand in the early 1900s. We examined 11 microsatellite loci from samples collected in several sites and years to address two questions: (i) what population differentiation has arisen in the ≈ 30 generations since salmon were introduced to New Zealand, relative to temporal variation within populations; and (ii) what are the approximate effective population sizes and amounts of gene flow in these populations? These questions are routinely addressed in studies of indigenous populations, but less often in the case of new populations and rarely with consideration of equilibrium assumptions. We show that despite the recent introduction, continued gene flow and high temporal variability among samples, detectable population structure has arisen among the New Zealand populations, consistent with their colonization pattern and isolation by geographical distance. Furthermore, we use simple individual‐based simulations and estimates of effective population sizes to estimate the effective gene flow among drainages under likely nonequilibrium conditions. Similar methodology may be broadly applicable to other studies of population structure and phenotypic evolution under similar nonequilibrium, high gene flow conditions.     

Spatiotemporal relationship between adult census size and genetic population size across a wide population size gradient

Adult census population size (N) and effective number of breeders (N_b) are highly relevant for designing effective conservation strategies. Both parameters are often challenging to quantify, however, making it of interest to determine whether one parameter can be generalized from the other. Yet, the spatiotemporal relationship between N and N_b has not been well characterized empirically in many taxa. We analysed this relationship for 5–7 consecutive years in twelve brook trout populations varying greatly in N (49‐10032) and N_b (3‐567) and identified major environmental variables affecting the two parameters. N or habitat size alone explained 47–57% of the variance in N_b, and N_b was strongly correlated with effective population size. The ratio N_b/N ranged from 0.01 to 0.45 and increased at small N or following an annual decrease in N, suggesting density‐dependent constraints on N_b. We found no evidence for a consistent, directional difference between variability in N_b and/or N_b/N among small and large populations; however, small populations had more varying temporal variability in N_b/N ratios than large populations. Finally, N_b and N_b/N were 2.5‐ and 2.3‐fold more variable among populations than temporally within populations. Our results demonstrate a clear linkage between demographic and evolutionary parameters, suggesting that N_b could be used to approximate N (or vice versa) in natural populations. Nevertheless, using one variable to infer the other to monitor trends within populations is less recommended, perhaps even less so in small populations given their less predictable N_b vs. N dynamics.     

Population genetic structure and effective population size of ayu (Plecoglossus altivelis), an amphidromous fish

The temporal and spatial population genetic structure of ayu Plecoglossus altivelis (Salmoniformes: Plecoglossidae), an amphidromous fish, was examined using analysis of variation at six microsatellite DNA loci. Intracohort genetic diversities, as measured by the number of alleles and heterozygosity, were similar among six cohorts (2001–2006) within a population (Nezugaseki River), with the mean number of alleles per cohort ranging from 11·0 to 12·5 and the expected heterozygosity ranging from 0·74 to 0·77. Intrapopulational genetic diversities were also similar across the three studied populations along the 50 km coast, with the mean number of alleles and the expected heterozygosity ranging from 11·33 to 11·67 and from 0·75 to 0·76, respectively. The authors observed only one significant difference in pair-wise population differentiation ( F _ST-value) between the cohorts within a population and among three populations. Estimates of the effective population size ( N _e) based on maximum-likelihood method yielded small values (ranging from 94·8 to 135·5), whereas census population size ranged from c. 4800 to 24 000. As a result, the ratio of annual effective population sizes to census population size ( N _e/ N ) ranged from 0·004 to 0·023. These estimates of N _e/ N agree more closely with estimates for marine fishes than that of the larger estimates for freshwater fishes. The present study suggests that ayu which is highly fecund and shows low survival during the early life stages is also characterized by having low value of N _e/ N , similar to marine species with a pelagic life cycle.     

Temporal changes in allele frequencies and low effective population size in greater prairie-chickens

The number of greater prairie-chickens in Wisconsin has decreased by 91% since 1932. The current population of approximately 1500 birds exists primarily in four isolated management areas. In previous studies of the Wisconsin populations we documented low levels of genetic variation at microsatellite loci and the mitochondrial DNA control region. Here we investigate changes in genetic structure between the four management areas in Wisconsin over the last 50 years. We estimated the harmonic mean effective population size (Ne) over the last 50 years by comparing allele frequencies from the early 1950s with those from contemporary samples. Using a pseudo-likelihood approach that accounted for migration, estimates of Ne (15-32 prairie-chickens within each management area) were 10 times lower than census numbers from booming-ground counts. These low estimates of Ne are consistent with increased habitat fragmentation and an increase in genetic isolation between management areas over the last 50 years. The reduction of gene flow between areas has reduced Ne, increased genetic drift and, consequently, reduced genetic variation. These results have immediate consequences for the conservation of the prairie-chicken, and highlight the importance of how mating systems and limited dispersal may exacerbate the loss of genetic variation in fragmented populations.     

Effects of population characteristics and structure on estimates of effective population size in a house sparrow metapopulation

Effective population size (N_e) is a key parameter to understand evolutionary processes and the viability of endangered populations as it determines the rate of genetic drift and inbreeding. Low N_e can lead to inbreeding depression and reduced population adaptability. In this study, we estimated contemporary N_e using genetic estimators (LDNE, ONeSAMP, MLNE and CoNe) as well as a demographic estimator in a natural insular house sparrow metapopulation. We investigated whether population characteristics (population size, sex ratio, immigration rate, variance in population size and population growth rate) explained variation within and among populations in the ratio of effective to census population size (N_e/N_c). In general, N_e/N_c ratios increased with immigration rates. Genetic N_e was much larger than demographic N_e, probably due to a greater effect of immigration on genetic than demographic processes in local populations. Moreover, although estimates of genetic N_e seemed to track N_c quite well, the genetic N_e‐estimates were often larger than N_c within populations. Estimates of genetic N_e for the metapopulation were however within the expected range (<N_c). Our results suggest that in fragmented populations, even low levels of gene flow may have important consequences for the interpretation of genetic estimates of N_e. Consequently, further studies are needed to understand how N_e estimated in local populations or the total metapopulation relates to actual rates of genetic drift and inbreeding.     

Effective population size associated with self-fertilization: lessons from temporal changes in allele frequencies in the selfing annual Medicago truncatula

Despite its significance in evolutionary and conservation biology, few estimates of effective population size (N(e)) are available in plant species. Self-fertilization is expected to affect N(e), through both its effect on homozygosity and population dynamics. Here, we estimated N(e) using temporal variation in allele frequencies for two contrasted populations of the selfing annual Medicago truncatula: a large and continuous population and a subdivided population. Estimated N(e) values were around 5-10% of the population census size suggesting that other factors than selfing must contribute to variation in allele frequencies. Further comparisons between monolocus allelic variation and changes in the multilocus genotypic composition of the populations show that the local dynamics of inbred lines can play an important role in the fluctuations of allele frequencies. Finally, comparing N(e) estimates and levels of genetic variation suggest that H(e) is a poor estimator of the contemporaneous variance effective population size.     

History vs. current demography: explaining the genetic population structure of the common frog (Rana temporaria)

The amount of genetic variability at neutral marker loci is expected to decrease, and the degree of genetic differentiation among populations to increase, as a negative function of effective population size. We assessed the patterns of genetic variability and differentiation at seven microsatellite loci in the common frog (Rana temporaria) in a hierarchical sampling scheme involving three regions (208-885 km apart), three subregions within regions and nine populations (5-20 km apart) within subregions, and related the variability and differentiation estimates to variation in local population size estimates. Genetic variability within local populations decreased significantly with increasing latitude, as well as with decreasing population size and regional site occupancy (proportion of censured localities occupied). The positive relationship between population size and genetic variability estimates was evident also when the effect of latitude (cf. colonization history) was accounted for. Significant genetic differentiation was found at all hierarchical levels, and the degree of population differentiation tended to increase with increasing latitude. Isolation by distance was evident especially at the regional sampling level, and its strength increased significantly towards the north in concordance with decreasing census and marker-based neighbourhood size estimates. These results are in line with the conjecture that the influence of current demographic factors can override the influence of historical factors on species population genetic structure. Further, the observed reductions in genetic variability and increased degree of population differentiation towards the north are in line with theoretical and empirical treatments suggesting that effective population sizes decline towards the periphery of a species' range.     

Temporal genetic stability and high effective population size despite fisheries-induced life-history trait evolution in the North Sea sole

Heavy fishing and other anthropogenic influences can have profound impact on a species' resilience to harvesting. Besides the decrease in the census and effective population size, strong declines in mature adults and recruiting individuals may lead to almost irreversible genetic changes in life-history traits. Here, we investigated the evolution of genetic diversity and effective population size in the heavily exploited sole (Solea solea), through the analysis of historical DNA from a collection of 1379 sole otoliths dating back from 1957. Despite documented shifts in life-history traits, neutral genetic diversity inferred from 11 microsatellite markers showed a remarkable stability over a period of 50 years of heavy fishing. Using simulations and corrections for fisheries induced demographic variation, both single-sample estimates and temporal estimates of effective population size (N(e) ) were always higher than 1000, suggesting that despite the severe census size decrease over a 50-year period of harvesting, genetic drift is probably not strong enough to significantly decrease the neutral diversity of this species in the North Sea. However, the inferred ratio of effective population size to the census size (N(e) /N(c) ) appears very small (10(-5) ), suggesting that overall only a low proportion of adults contribute to the next generation. The high N(e) level together with the low N(e) /N(c) ratio is probably caused by a combination of an equalized reproductive output of younger cohorts, a decrease in generation time and a large variance in reproductive success typical for marine species. Because strong evolutionary changes in age and size at first maturation have been observed for sole, changes in adaptive genetic variation should be further monitored to detect the evolutionary consequences of human-induced selection.     

The effects of cyclic dynamics and mating system on the effective size of an island mouflon population

The Haute Island mouflon (Ovis aries) population is isolated on one small (6.5 km2) island of the remote Kerguelen archipelago. Given a promiscuous mating system, a cyclic demography and a strong female-biased sex ratio after population crashes, we expected a low effective population size (Ne). We estimated Ne using demographic and temporal genetic approaches based on genetic information at 25 microsatellite loci from 62 and 58 mouflons sampled in 1988 and 2003, respectively. Genetic Ne estimates were higher than expected, varying between 104 and 250 depending on the methods used. Both demographic and genetic approaches show the Haute Island Ne is buffered against population crashes. The unexpectedly high Ne likely results from the cyclic winter crashes that allow young males to reproduce, limiting the variance of male reproductive success. Based on individual-based simulations, we suggest that despite a strongly female-biased sex ratio, the effects of the mating system on the effective population size more closely resemble random mating or weak polygyny.     

Temporal genetic variation of mitochondrial DNA and the female effective population size of red drum (Sciaenops ocellatus) in the northern Gulf of Mexico

We studied genetic drift of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) haplotype frequencies in a natural population of red drum (Sciaenops ocellatus) from the northern Gulf of Mexico (Gulf). The amount of genetic drift observed across temporally adjacent year classes (1986–89) was used to estimate variance effective (female) population size (N_ef). N_ef was estimated to be 14 308 and the ratio of female effective size to adult female census size was approximately 0.004, which is among the lowest value reported for vertebrate animals. Low effective size relative to census size among red drum in the northern Gulf may result from yearly fluctuations in the number of breeding females, high variance in female reproductive success, or both. Despite low genetic effective size relative to census size, the genetic effective population size of red drum in the northern Gulf appears sufficiently large to preclude potentially deleterious effects of inbreeding.     

Genetic effective size of a wild primate population: influence of current and historical demography

A comprehensive assessment of the determinants of effective population size (N(e)) requires estimates of variance in lifetime reproductive success and past changes in census numbers. For natural populations, such information can be best obtained by combining longitudinal data on individual life histories and genetic marker-based inferences of demographic history. Independent estimates of the variance effective size (N(ev), obtained from life-history data) and the inbreeding effective size (N((eI), obtained from genetic data) provide a means of disentangling the effects of current and historical demography. The purpose of this study was to assess the demographic determinants of N(e) in one of the most intensively studied natural populations of a vertebrate species: the population of savannah baboons (Papio cynocephalus) in the Amboseli Basin, southern Kenya. We tested the hypotheses that N(eV) < N < N(eI) (where N = population census number) due to a recent demographic bottleneck. N(eV) was estimated using a stochastic demographic model based on detailed life-history data spanning a 28-year period. Using empirical estimates of age-specific rates of survival and fertility for both sexes, individual-based simulations were used to estimate the variance in lifetime reproductive success. The resultant values translated into an N(eV)/N estimate of 0.329 (SD = 0.116, 95% CI = 0.172-0.537). Historical N(eI), was estimated from 14-locus microsatellite genotypes using a coalescent-based simulation model. Estimates of N(eI) were 2.2 to 7.2 times higher than the contemporary census number of the Amboseli baboon population. In addition to the effects of immigration, the disparity between historical N(eI) and contemporary N is likely attributable to the time lag between the recent drop in census numbers and the rate of increase in the average probability of allelic identity-by-descent. Thus, observed levels of genetic diversity may primarily reflect the population's prebottleneck history rather than its current demography.     

Genetic changes in Atlantic salmon stocks since historical times and the effective population size of a long-term captive breeding programme

Human-caused genetic changes in two Atlanticsalmon (Salmo salar L.) stocks, from therivers Iijoki and Oulujoki in Finland, wereassessed by comparing the genetic parameters ofthese stocks before and after the hatcherybreeding of several successive generations,corresponding to 40 and 33 years since the wildstate. The changes were also compared withthose observed in a large wild salmon stock inthe River Teno during 56 years. In all, thevariation at seven microsatellite DNA loci wasexamined in 11 Atlantic salmon samplesoriginating from these three rivers. Theeffective population size, N_e, duringbreeding of the Iijoki broodstock and for theTeno salmon was also estimated by the temporalmethod based on allele frequency changes. Forthe Iijoki broodstock, the changes could betracked generation by generation from thefounding of the stock. Statisticallysignificant changes in allele frequencies werecommon in the hatchery stocks (F = 0.029, forIijoki), but not in the wild Teno stock, whichwas temporally very stable (F = 0.007). Allelicrichness decreased statistically significantly(24.8%) in the Oulujoki broodstock, from 62.1to 46.7 alleles at nine loci. On average, therewere 9.7 fewer alleles (15.7%) in thecontemporary broodstocks than in thecorresponding historical stocks. The meanheterozygosity was 6.6% lower in thecontemporary Oulujoki broodstock, but remainedunchanged in the Iijoki broodstock. Theestimated N_e for the Iijoki broodstock wasunder 80 for 4.5 generations from 1962 to 1995and for the wild Teno salmon over 900 for 56years from 1939 to 1995.     

An empirical test of the estimation of historical effective population size using Drosophila melanogaster

The availability of a large number of high-density markers (SNPs) allows the estimation of historical effective population size (N_e) from linkage disequilibrium between loci. A recent refinement of methods to estimate historical N_e from the recent past has been shown to be rather accurate with simulation data. The method has also been applied to real data for numerous species. However, the simulation data cannot encompass all the complexities of real genomes, and the performance of any estimation method with real data is always uncertain, as the true demography of the populations is not known. Here, we carried out an experimental design with Drosophila melanogaster to test the method with real data following a known demographic history. We used a population maintained in the laboratory with a constant census size of about 2800 individuals and subjected the population to a drastic decline to a size of 100 individuals. After a few generations, the population was expanded back to the previous size and after a few further generations again expanded to twice the initial size. Estimates of historical N_e were obtained with the software GONE both for autosomal and X chromosomes from samples of 17 individuals sequenced for the whole genome. Estimates of the historical effective size were able to infer the patterns of changes that occurred in the populations showing generally good performance of the method. We discuss the limitations of the method and the application of the software carried out so far.     

Mature male parr contribution to the effective size of an anadromous Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) population over 30 years

We describe temporal changes in the genetic composition of a small anadromous Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) population from South Newfoundland, an area where salmon populations are considered threatened (COSEWIC 2010). We examined the genetic variability (13 microsatellite loci) in 869 out‐migrating smolt and post‐spawning kelt samples, collected from 1985 to 2011 for a total of 22 annual collections and a 30 year span of assigned cohorts. We estimated the annual effective number of breeders (N_b) and the generational effective population size (N_e) through genetic methods and demographically using the adult sex ratio. Comparisons between genetic and demographic estimates show that the adult spawners inadequately explain the observed N_e estimates, suggesting that mature male parr are significantly increasing N_b and N_e over the study period. Spawning as parr appears to be a viable and important strategy in the near absence of adult males.     

Variance effective population size is affected by census size in sub-structured populations

Measurement of allele frequency shifts between temporally spaced samples has long been used for assessment of effective population size (N_e), and this ‘temporal method’ provides estimates of N_e referred to as variance effective size (N_eV). We show that N_eV of a local population that belongs to a sub-structured population (a metapopulation) is determined not only by genetic drift and migration rate (m), but also by the census size (N_c). The realized N_eV of a local population can either increase or decrease with increasing m, depending on the relationship between N_e and N_c in isolation. This is shown by explicit mathematical expressions for the factors affecting N_eV derived for an island model of migration. We verify analytical results using high-resolution computer simulations, and show that the phenomenon is not restricted to the island model migration pattern. The effect of N_c on the realized N_eV of a local subpopulation is most pronounced at high migration rates. We show that N_c only affects local N_eV, whereas N_eV for the metapopulation as a whole, inbreeding (N_eI), and linkage disequilibrium (N_eLD) effective size are all independent of N_c. Our results provide a possible explanation to the large variation of N_e/N_c ratios reported in the literature, where N_e is frequently estimated by N_eV. They are also important for the interpretation of empirical N_e estimates in genetic management where local N_eV is often used as a substitute for inbreeding effective size, and we suggest an increased focus on metapopulation N_eV as a proxy for N_eI.     

COMPUTER PROGRAMS: onesamp: a program to estimate effective population size using approximate Bayesian computation

The estimation of effective population size from one sample of genotypes has been problematic because most estimators have been proven imprecise or biased. We developed a web-based program, onesamp that uses approximate Bayesian computation to estimate effective population size from a sample of microsatellite genotypes. onesamp requires an input file of sampled individuals' microsatellite genotypes along with information about several sampling and biological parameters. onesamp provides an estimate of effective population size, along with 95% credible limits. We illustrate the use of onesamp with an example data set from a re-introduced population of ibex Capra ibex.     

Temporal change in genetic structure and effective population size in steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss)

There is a wealth of published molecular population genetic studies, however, most do not include historic samples and thus implicitly assume temporal genetic stability. We tested for changes in genetic diversity and structure in three populations of steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) from a northern British Columbia watershed using seven microsatellite loci over 40 years. We found little change in genetic diversity (mean allele numbers and observed and expected heterozygosity), despite large variation in the estimated numbers of steelhead returning to the watershed over the same time period. However, the temporal stability in genetic diversity is not reflected in population structure, which appears to be high among populations, yet significantly variable over time. The neighbour-joining tree showed that, overall, two of the populations (Zymoetz and Kispiox) clustered separately from the third (Babine); a finding which was not consistent with their geographical separation. The clustering pattern was also not temporally consistent. We used the temporal method to estimate the effective number of breeders (Nb ) for the three populations; our values (Nb = 17-102) were low for the large and presumed vigorous populations of steelhead trout sampled. The low Nb values were also not consistent with the generally high genetic diversity estimates, suggesting the possibility of intermittent gene flow among the three populations. The use of temporal analyses in population genetic samples should be a priority; first, to verify observed patterns in contemporary data, and second, to build a dataset of temporal analyses to allow generalizations to be made concerning temporal genetic stability and effective population size in natural populations.     

Mitochondrial DNA variation, effective female population size and population history of the endangered Chinese sturgeon, Acipenser sinensis

The anadromous Chinese sturgeon (Acipenser sinensis), mainly endemic to the Yangtze River in China, is an endangered fish species. The natural population has declined since the Gezhouba Dam blocked its migratory route to the spawning grounds in 1981. In the near future, the completion of the Three Gorges Dam, the world's largest hydroelectric project, may further impact this species by altering the water flow of the Yangtze River. Little is currently known about the population genetic structure of the Chinese sturgeon. In this study, DNA sequence data were determined from the control region (D-loop) of the mitochondrial genome of adult sturgeons (n = 106) that were collected between 1995–2000. The molecular data were used to investigate genetic variation, effective female population size and population history of the Chinese sturgeon in the Yangtze River. Our results indicate that the reduction in abundance did not change genetic variation of the Chinese sturgeon, and that the population underwent an expansion in the past. AMOVA analysis indicated that 98.7% of the genetic variability occurred within each year's spawning populations, the year of collection had little influence on the diversity of annual temporary samples. The relative large effective female population size (N _ef) indicates that good potential exists for the recovery of this species in the future. Strikingly, the ratio of N _ef to the census female population size (N _f) is unusually high (0.77–0.93). This may be the result of a current bottleneck in the population of the Chinese sturgeon that is likely caused by human intervention. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Divergence in juvenile growth and life history in two recently colonized and partially isolated chinook salmon populations

In 47 families of New Zealand chinook salmon, Oncorhynchus tshawytscha derived from two populations, differing in mean spawning date by 11–17 days and in juvenile life history, neither mean ovum weight nor mean time to hatch differed between the two populations, but substantial differences in mean family weight were apparent from 6 months after fertilization. Differences in growth rates from 12 to 24 months were relatively small, suggesting that most of the divergence in size and growth occurred during the first 6 months of life. There were differences in mean weight for families spawned 11–17 days apart, the approximate interval by which peak spawning date differs between the two populations, but these did not persist beyond 7 months. Differences between the two populations are consistent with their natural life history. The slower growing population experiences cooler temperatures during stream residence and is dominated by fish which spend a year in fresh water before seaward migration, whereas the faster growing population normally experiences warmer temperatures and migrates to sea in the first year of life. These results provide further evidence of life history evolution in partially isolated chinook salmon populations within 90 years ( c. 30 generations) of becoming established.