Status of the population of Karamoja Apalis Apalis karamojae in north-eastern Uganda

The distribution of the Karamoja Apalis Apalis karamojae, an East African endemic, has been sparsely documented in Uganda. In October 2011, a survey of the species was carried out near Iriiri in north-eastern Uganda. The main aim was to find out if there is a viable population of the species and to highlight the threats to its population. Sixteen 1-km transects in four sites were surveyed. The survey recorded nine individuals including a pair at an occupied nest, which is not conclusive for determining the viability of the population. The main threats to the species were cutting of the dominant shrub Vachellia drepanolobium (Acacia drepanolobium) in the area, farming and grazing. When we attempted luring the birds using the recorded song of the Karamoja Apalis from Tanzania, these individuals did not respond. We therefore recommend (1) to undertake a more detailed GIS survey to discover the extent of the suitable habitat, (2) to repeat the survey with improved effort to better estimate the viability of this population, (3) to conduct a study to ascertain the successful breeding of the species in the area, (4) to conduct a DNA analysis to compare the Iriiri population with the Tanzanian population, and (5) to record the song of the Ugandan birds for song analysis and to determine the response of Tanzanian birds.     

Modelling the effect of habitat fragmentation on range expansion in a butterfly

There is an increasing need for conservation programmes to make quantitative predictions of biodiversity responses to changed environments. Such predictions will be particularly important to promote species recovery in fragmented landscapes, and to understand and facilitate distribution responses to climate change. Here, we model expansion rates of a test species (a rare butterfly, Hesperia comma) in five landscapes over 18 years (generations), using a metapopulation model (the incidence function model). Expansion rates increased with the area, quality and proximity of habitat patches available for colonization, with predicted expansion rates closely matching observed rates in test landscapes. Habitat fragmentation constrained expansion, but in a predictable way, suggesting that it will prove feasible both to understand variation in expansion rates and to develop conservation programmes to increase rates of range expansion in such species.     

Evidence for evolutionary change associated with the recent range expansion of the British butterfly, Aricia agestis, in response to climate change

Poleward range expansions are widespread responses to recent climate change and are crucial for the future persistence of many species. However, evolutionary change in traits such as colonization history and habitat preference may also be necessary to track environmental change across a fragmented landscape. Understanding the likelihood and speed of such adaptive change is important in determining the rate of species extinction with ongoing climate change. We conducted an amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP)‐based genome scan across the recently expanded UK range of the Brown Argus butterfly, Aricia agestis, and used outlier‐based (DFDIST and BayeScan) and association‐based (Isolation‐By‐Adaptation) statistical approaches to identify signatures of evolutionary change associated with range expansion and habitat use. We present evidence for (i) limited effects of range expansion on population genetic structure and (ii) strong signatures of selection at approximately 5% AFLP loci associated with both the poleward range expansion of A. agestis and differences in habitat use across long‐established and recently colonized sites. Patterns of allele frequency variation at these candidate loci suggest that adaptation to new habitats at the range margin has involved selection on genetic variation in habitat use found across the long‐established part of the range. Our results suggest that evolutionary change is likely to affect species’ responses to climate change and that genetic variation in ecological traits across species’ distributions should be maximized to facilitate range shifts across a fragmented landscape, particularly in species that show strong associations with particular habitats.     

Deforestation and cattle ranching drive rapid range expansion of capybara in the Gran Chaco ecosystem

Anthropogenic habitat alteration has the capacity to alter the distribution of species. Capybara (Hydrochoerus hydrochaeris) are a widely distributed rodent throughout most of South America, but are restricted to areas of standing water. As the Gran Chaco ecosystem of Paraguay is converted from dry tropical forest to pastureland, we hypothesize that this alteration creates potential for invasion by capybara into newly fragmented areas. We surveyed throughout the Chaco to estimate the distribution of capybara, and we collected noninvasive genetic samples. We used ecological niche modeling based on six environmental or climatic variables, and we modeled both the current distribution of capybara and the distribution of capybara 80 years ago. We then verified the hypothesized demographic signal generated with our model using phylogeographic analyses of 386 bp of the mtDNA control region. Comparison of present and past models suggested that populations expanded into the Gran Chaco after forest was converted to pastureland. Analyses of the mitochondrial D‐loop supported the rapid range expansion scenario. We also found evidence of secondary contact of two distinct phylogroups which had previously been disjunct. Anthropogenic land transformation appeared to be a major factor influencing the distribution, as predicted by the niche model and confirmed by genetic data. Habitat modification altered connectivity of populations across the landscape. In addition, long separated clades of capybara are now admixed throughout the Paraguayan Chaco. The invasion of a large bodied herbivore into the High Chaco region may exacerbate the degradation of forest and prevent forest regeneration. As the reservoir host of several zoonotic diseases, the expansion and contact of two previously disjunct capybara populations has implications for disease emergence.     

Range expansion of the small spruce bark beetle Ips amitinus: a newcomer in northern Europe

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Unravelling the effects of contemporary and historical range expansion on the distribution of genetic diversity in the damselfly Coenagrion scitulum

Although genetic diversity provides the basic substrate for evolution, there are a limited number of studies that assess the impact of recent climate change on intraspecific genetic variation. This study aims to unravel the degree to which historical and contemporary factors shape genetic diversity and structure across a large part of the range of the range‐expanding damselfly Coenagrion scitulum (Rambur, 1842). A total of 525 individuals from 31 populations were genotyped at nine microsatellites, and a subset was sequenced at two mitochondrial genes. We inferred the importance of geography, environmental factors, and recent range expansion on genetic diversity and structure. Genetic diversity decreased going westwards, suggesting a signature of historical post‐glacial expansion from east to west and the presence of eastern refugia. Although genetic differentiation decreased going northwards, it increased in the northern edge populations, suggesting a role of contemporary range expansion on the genetic make‐up of populations. The phylogeographical context was proven to be essential in understanding and identifying the genetic signatures of local contemporary processes. Within this framework, our results highlight that recent range expansion of a good disperser can decrease genetic diversity and increase genetic differentiation which should be considered when devising suitable conservation strategies.     

Range expansion of the Asian native giant resin bee Megachile sculpturalis (Hymenoptera,Apoidea, Megachilidae) in France

In 2008, a new species for the French bee fauna was recorded in Allauch near Marseille: the giant resin bee, Megachile sculpturalis (Smith, 1853). This was the first European record of this species that is native to East Asia. To our knowledge, it is the first introduced bee species in Europe. Here, we provide an overview of the current distribution of M. sculpturalis in France and we describe the history of its range expansion. Besides our own observations, information was compiled from literature and Internet websites, and by contacting naturalist networks. We collected a total of 117 records (locality × year combinations) for the 2008–2016 period. The geographical range of M. sculpturalis has extended remarkably, now occupying a third of continental France, with the most northern and western records located 335 and 520 km from Allauch, respectively. Information on its phenology, feeding, and nesting behavior is also provided. We report several events of nest occupation or eviction of Osmia sp. and Xylocopa sp. individuals by M. sculpturalis. Our results show that M. sculpturalis is now well established in France. Given its capacity to adapt and rapidly expand its range, we recommend amplifying the monitoring of this species to better anticipate the changes in its geographical range and its potential impacts on native bees.     

Range expansion and distributional limits of the nine‐banded armadillo in the United States: an update of Taulman & Robbins (1996)

We conducted a new survey of biologists throughout the southern and central United States, in order to update our last analysis of the range expansion and distributional limits of the nine‐banded armadillo (Dasypus novemcinctus) since 1994. While the armadillo's range has remained stationary to the west along a line corresponding to about 50 cm annual precipitation, it has advanced to the north through central Kansas, into central Illinois, south‐western Indiana and western Kentucky, through central Tennessee, covering Alabama and all but the north‐eastern region of Georgia, and into central South Carolina. The population has reached a latitude corresponding to an average minimum daily January temperature of ?8 °C in Kansas . Armadillos may continue to move northwards in states farther east where they do not yet reach the ?8 °C zone. In the eastern seaboard states, other factors besides winter temperature extremes may be limiting the armadillo's range expansion.     

Will northern fish populations be in hot water because of climate change?

Predicted increases in water temperature in response to climate change will have large implications for aquatic ecosystems, such as altering thermal habitat and potential range expansion of fish species. Warmwater fish species, such as smallmouth bass, Micropterus dolomieu , may have access to additional favourable thermal habitat under increased surface-water temperatures, thereby shifting the northern limit of the distribution of the species further north in Canada and potentially negatively impacting native fish communities. We assembled a database of summer surface-water temperatures for over 13 000 lakes across Canada. The database consists of lakes with a variety of physical, chemical and biological properties. We used general linear models to develop a nation-wide maximum lake surface-water temperature model. The model was extended to predict surface-water temperatures suitable to smallmouth bass and under climate-change scenarios. Air temperature, latitude, longitude and sampling time were good predictors of present-day maximum surface-water temperature. We predicted lake surface-water temperatures for July 2100 using three climate-change scenarios. Water temperatures were predicted to increase by as much as 18 °C by 2100, with the greatest increase in northern Canada. Lakes with maximum surface-water temperatures suitable for smallmouth bass populations were spatially identified. Under several climate-change scenarios, we were able to identify lakes that will contain suitable thermal habitat and, therefore, are vulnerable to invasion by smallmouth bass in 2100. This included lakes in the Arctic that were predicted to have suitable thermal habitat by 2100.     

Increased intrusion of warming Atlantic water leads to rapid expansion of temperate phytoplankton in the Arctic

The Arctic Ocean and its surrounding shelf seas are warming much faster than the global average, which potentially opens up new distribution areas for temperate‐origin marine phytoplankton. Using over three decades of continuous satellite observations, we show that increased inflow and temperature of Atlantic waters in the Barents Sea resulted in a striking poleward shift in the distribution of blooms of Emiliania huxleyi, a marine calcifying phytoplankton species. This species' blooms are typically associated with temperate waters and have expanded north to 76°N, five degrees further north of its first bloom occurrence in 1989. E. huxleyi's blooms keep pace with the changing climate of the Barents Sea, namely ocean warming and shifts in the position of the Polar Front, resulting in an exceptionally rapid range shift compared to what is generally detected in the marine realm. We propose that as the Eurasian Basin of the Arctic Ocean further atlantifies and ocean temperatures continue to rise, E. huxleyi and other temperate‐origin phytoplankton could well become resident bloom formers in the Arctic Ocean.     

Species distribution models contribute to determine the effect of climate and interspecific interactions in moving hybrid zones

Climate is a major factor delimiting species’ distributions. However, biotic interactions may also be prominent in shaping geographical ranges, especially for parapatric species forming hybrid zones. Determining the relative effect of each factor and their interaction of the contact zone location has been difficult due to the lack of broad scale environmental data. Recent developments in species distribution modelling (SDM) now allow disentangling the relative contributions of climate and species’ interactions in hybrid zones and their responses to future climate change. We investigated the moving hybrid zone between the breeding ranges of two parapatric passerines in Europe. We conducted SDMs representing the climatic conditions during the breeding season. Our results show a large mismatch between the realized and potential distributions of the two species, suggesting that interspecific interactions, not climate, account for the present location of the contact zone. The SDM scenarios show that the southerly distributed species, Hippolais polyglotta, might lose large parts of its southern distribution under climate change, but a similar gain of novel habitat along the hybrid zone seems unlikely, because interactions with the other species (H. icterina) constrain its range expansion. Thus, whenever biotic interactions limit range expansion, species may become ‘trapped’ if range loss due to climate change is faster than the movement of the contact zone. An increasing number of moving hybrid zones are being reported, but the proximate causes of movement often remain unclear. In a global context of climate change, we call for more interest in their interactions with climate change.     

Natural selection in a postglacial range expansion: the case of the colour cline in the European barn owl

Gradients of variation—or clines—have always intrigued biologists. Classically, they have been interpreted as the outcomes of antagonistic interactions between selection and gene flow. Alternatively, clines may also establish neutrally with isolation by distance (IBD) or secondary contact between previously isolated populations. The relative importance of natural selection and these two neutral processes in the establishment of clinal variation can be tested by comparing genetic differentiation at neutral genetic markers and at the studied trait. A third neutral process, surfing of a newly arisen mutation during the colonization of a new habitat, is more difficult to test. Here, we designed a spatially explicit approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) simulation framework to evaluate whether the strong cline in the genetically based reddish coloration observed in the European barn owl (Tyto alba) arose as a by‐product of a range expansion or whether selection has to be invoked to explain this colour cline, for which we have previously ruled out the actions of IBD or secondary contact. Using ABC simulations and genetic data on 390 individuals from 20 locations genotyped at 22 microsatellites loci, we first determined how barn owls colonized Europe after the last glaciation. Using these results in new simulations on the evolution of the colour phenotype, and assuming various genetic architectures for the colour trait, we demonstrate that the observed colour cline cannot be due to the surfing of a neutral mutation. Taking advantage of spatially explicit ABC, which proved to be a powerful method to disentangle the respective roles of selection and drift in range expansions, we conclude that the formation of the colour cline observed in the barn owl must be due to natural selection.     

The role of climate in constraining the elevational range of the Water Pipit Anthus spinoletta in an alpine environment

The study of determinants of species’ ranges along elevational gradients may shed light on the ecological factors that constrain their distribution and fundamental niche. We analysed the influence of the climate, habitat at different spatial scales and topography on Water Pipit Anthus spinoletta density in mountain landscapes across a wide elevational gradient. Variables associated with spring and annual temperature values were the main determinants of Water Pipit density, especially at the lower distributional limit (700–1200 m asl), where the species avoided warmer areas. At high‐elevation sites (1600–2300 m asl), the main constraint to the species’ distribution was habitat structure and composition, with steep rocky areas being avoided. Highest densities were found in open but locally heterogeneous habitat at intermediate to high elevations, and the habitat variables that played a major role at the landscape scale were medium‐tall shrublands and woodlands, but with contrasting effects depending on elevation. These results suggest that different sets of variables may constrain density, and effects may differ at the upper and lower elevational limits, with climate being more important at lower elevations and local habitat more important at higher elevations. Ongoing global warming is likely to cause an upward shift in range boundaries of alpine species, but local habitat features could constrain the upward expansion, resulting in range contractions accompanying range shift.     

The effect of habitat on the range expansion of a native and an introduced bird species

Aim Range expansion across a heterogeneous landscape may depend on the habitat selected and used by the expanding species. If habitat selection influences range expansion then localities colonized by a species should contain a greater proportion of favoured habitat (and less non‐habitat) than other nearby localities not colonized. White‐winged doves (Zenaida asiatica) and Eurasian collared doves (Streptopelia decaocto) are two bird species that provide an excellent opportunity to test this hypothesis, because the geographic ranges of both species have been expanding in North America for more than two decades. Location Continental USA. Methods We used distribution data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey to test whether the landscapes occupied by each species contained a greater proportion of favoured habitat (urban land, grassland/pasture, shrub land and cropland) and a lower proportion of non‐habitat (forest land) than landscapes where doves were not found. We tested each species separately in each of three broad expansion areas, namely East, Central and West. We also compared rates of spatial spread between expansion areas and between the two species. Results As predicted, both species tended to occupy landscapes with greater proportions of urban land, shrub land and cropland but with less forest land compared with landscapes without doves, in all three expansion areas. Contrary to prediction, occupied landscapes tended to have slightly less grassland/pasture than unoccupied landscapes. Rates of spread differed between the two species and among expansion areas. Main conclusions Range expansion and the extent to which a species fills or saturates its range are influenced by the habitat ecology of the expanding species. Species colonize localities based on the availability of suitable habitat. However, the role of habitat in a species’ range expansion does depend somewhat on the greater geographical setting. Over large regional and geographical scales, range expansion (rate of spread and saturation) may proceed unevenly, suggesting that range expansion is a very dynamic and context‐specific process.     

Changes in mating system and social structure of the ant Petalomyrmex phylax are associated with range expansion in Cameroon

Past climate shifts have led to major oscillations in species distributions. Hence historical contingencies and selective processes occurring during such phases may be determinants for understanding the forces that have shaped extant phenotypes. In the plant-ant Petalomyrmex phylax (Formicinae), we observed spatial variation in number of queens in mature colonies, from several queens (high polygyny) in the median part of its distribution to a moderate number of queens (weak polygyny) or even only a single queen (monogyny) in the southwesternmost populations. This variation did not correlate with indicators of variation in current nest site availability and colony turnover, the supposedly determinant selective forces acting on gyny in ants. We show here that the variation in social structure correlates with a historical process corresponding to a progressive colonization of coastal southern Cameroon by the ant. Using microsatellite markers, we observed a clear pattern of isolation by distance except for the southernmost populations. Measures of genetic variability that do not take into account allele size were at equilibrium in all except the southernmost populations, suggesting recent foundation of the latter. Measures of genetic diversity taking into account allele size showed a clinal north-south decrease in variance of allele size. We propose that southern populations have yet to regain allele size variance after bottlenecks associated with the foundation of new populations, and that this variance is regained over time. Hence variation in social structure mirrors an old but still active southward colonization process or metapopulation dynamics, possibly in association with an expansion of the rain forest habitat during the late Holocene. A low number of queens in ant colonies is typically associated with strong dispersal capacity. We therefore suggest that the initial founders of new populations belong to the monogynous to weakly polygynous phenotype, and that queen number progressively increases in older populations.     

The range expansion of the great-tailed grackle (Quiscalus mexicanus Gmelin) in North America since 1880

Aims This study aimed to document and describe the current range expansion of the great‐tailed grackle (Quiscalus mexicanus Gmelin) into the USA. By examining the habitat associations and pattern of spread of this species, I intended to determine the factors responsible for this remarkable expansion by a tropical species into a temperate environment. Location This study focused on the spread of the great‐tailed grackle in the continental USA, Canada and Baja California. Methods I used published records, museum specimens, and egg collections to document this range expansion from 1880 through 2002. In addition I surveyed large portions of Arizona, Nevada, southern Utah and southern California for great‐tailed grackles during 2000 and 2001. The data gathered was used to create maps in order to quantify the rate of spread of this species. Results Between 1880 and 2000 the great‐tailed grackle expanded its breeding range in the USA from c. 64,000 km² to more than 3,561,000 km², an increase of 5530%. The average annual rate of increase is 3.4%, but has lessened during the past 20 years. Northward movement in the eastern portion of the range has slowed down, reflecting this decrease. However, in the central and western portion of the species range, the rate of northward movement is still accelerating. During this expansion, the average time between first sighting in a state and first breeding was 5.8 years. The species has become less migratory during its range expansion, wintering in 17 of the 20 states where it breeds. Main conclusions This range expansion has been marked by great‐tailed grackles preferring human‐modified environments as breeding grounds, especially in the western states. This association appears to benefit the species in two ways; nest predation is lessened in such areas compared with natural conditions, whereas human activities tend to generate an abundant and consistent food supply for feeding offspring. Wintering birds are often associated with cattle feed lots and large‐scale dairies, where abundant waste grain provides them with a reliable food supply. Given the continued human population increase throughout large areas of the western USA, the great‐tailed grackle will continue its range expansion.