Effect of folic acid supplementation on cardiovascular outcomes: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Folic acid is widely used to lower homocysteine concentrations and prevent adverse cardiovascular outcomes. However, the effect of folic acid on cardiovascular events is not clear at the present time. We carried out a comprehensive systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the effects of folic acid supplementation on cardiovascular outcomes.

Methodology and Principal Findings

We systematically searched Medline, EmBase, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, reference lists of articles, and proceedings of major meetings for relevant literature. We included randomized placebo-controlled trials that reported on the effects of folic acid on cardiovascular events compared to placebo. Of 1594 identified studies, we included 16 trials reporting data on 44841 patients. These studies reported 8238 major cardiovascular events, 2001 strokes, 2917 myocardial infarctions, and 6314 deaths. Folic acid supplementation as compared to placebo had no effect on major cardiovascular events (RR, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.93–1.04), stroke (RR, 0.89; 95% CI,0.78–1.01), myocardial infarction (RR, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.93–1.07), or deaths from any cause (RR, 1.00;95% CI, 0.96–1.05). Moreover, folic acid as compared to placebo also had no effect on the following secondary outcomes: risk of revascularization (RR, 1.05; 95%CI, 0.95–1.16), acute coronary syndrome (RR, 1.06; 95%CI, 0.97–1.15), cancer (RR, 1.08; 95%CI, 0.98–1.21), vascular death (RR, 0.94; 95%CI,0.88–1.02), or non-vascular death (RR, 1.06; 95%CI, 0.97–1.15).

Conclusion/Significance

Folic acid supplementation does not effect on the incidence of major cardiovascular events, stroke, myocardial infarction or all cause mortality.     

Influenza-related mortality trends in Japanese and American seniors: evidence for the indirect mortality benefits of vaccinating schoolchildren

Background

The historical Japanese influenza vaccination program targeted at schoolchildren provides a unique opportunity to evaluate the indirect benefits of vaccinating high-transmitter groups to mitigate disease burden among seniors. Here we characterize the indirect mortality benefits of vaccinating schoolchildren based on data from Japan and the US.

Methods

We compared age-specific influenza-related excess mortality rates in Japanese seniors aged ≥65 years during the schoolchildren vaccination program (1978–1994) and after the program was discontinued (1995–2006). Indirect vaccine benefits were adjusted for demographic changes, socioeconomics and dominant influenza subtype; US mortality data were used as a control.

Results

We estimate that the schoolchildren vaccination program conferred a 36% adjusted mortality reduction among Japanese seniors (95%CI: 17–51%), corresponding to ∼1,000 senior deaths averted by vaccination annually (95%CI: 400–1,800). In contrast, influenza-related mortality did not change among US seniors, despite increasing vaccine coverage in this population.

Conclusions

The Japanese schoolchildren vaccination program was associated with substantial indirect mortality benefits in seniors.     

The role of pre-existing diabetes mellitus on hepatocellular carcinoma occurrence and prognosis: a meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies

Background

The impact of pre-existing diabetes mellitus (DM) on hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) occurrence and prognosis is complex and unclear. The aim of this meta-analysis is to evaluate the association between pre-existing diabetes mellitus and hepatocellular carcinoma occurrence and prognosis.

Methods

We searched PubMed, Embase and the Cochrane Library from their inception to January, 2011 for prospective epidemiological studies assessing the effect of pre-existing diabetes mellitus on hepatocellular carcinoma occurrence, mortality outcomes, cancer recurrence, and treatment-related complications. Study-specific risk estimates were combined by using fixed effect or random effect models.

Results

The database search generated a total of 28 prospective studies that met the inclusion criteria. Among these studies, 14 reported the risk of HCC incidence and 6 studies reported risk of HCC specific mortality. Six studies provided a total of 8 results for all-cause mortality in HCC patients. Four studies documented HCC recurrence risks and 2 studies reported risks for hepatic decomposition occurrence in HCC patients. Meta-analysis indicated that pre-existing diabetes mellitus (DM) was significantly associated with increased risk of HCC incidence [meta-relative risk (RR) = 1.87, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.15–2.27] and HCC-specific mortality (meta-RR = 1.88, 95%CI: 1.39–2.55) compared with their non-DM counterparts. HCC patients with pre-existing DM had a 38% increased (95% CI: 1.13–1.48) risk of death from all-causes and 91% increased (95%CI: 1.41–2.57) risk of hepatic decomposition occurrence compared to those without DM. In DM patients, the meta-RR for HCC recurrence-free survival was 1.93(95%CI: 1.12–3.33) compared with non-diabetic patients.

Conclusion

The findings from the current meta-analysis suggest that DM may be both associated with elevated risks of both HCC incidence and mortality. Furthermore, HCC patients with pre-existing diabetes have a poorer prognosis relative to their non-diabetic counterparts.     

Long-term follow-up of transsexual persons undergoing sex reassignment surgery: cohort study in Sweden

Context

The treatment for transsexualism is sex reassignment, including hormonal treatment and surgery aimed at making the person''s body as congruent with the opposite sex as possible. There is a dearth of long term, follow-up studies after sex reassignment.

Objective

To estimate mortality, morbidity, and criminal rate after surgical sex reassignment of transsexual persons.

Design

A population-based matched cohort study.

Setting

Sweden, 1973-2003.

Participants

All 324 sex-reassigned persons (191 male-to-females, 133 female-to-males) in Sweden, 1973–2003. Random population controls (10∶1) were matched by birth year and birth sex or reassigned (final) sex, respectively.

Main Outcome Measures

Hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) for mortality and psychiatric morbidity were obtained with Cox regression models, which were adjusted for immigrant status and psychiatric morbidity prior to sex reassignment (adjusted HR [aHR]).

Results

The overall mortality for sex-reassigned persons was higher during follow-up (aHR 2.8; 95% CI 1.8–4.3) than for controls of the same birth sex, particularly death from suicide (aHR 19.1; 95% CI 5.8–62.9). Sex-reassigned persons also had an increased risk for suicide attempts (aHR 4.9; 95% CI 2.9–8.5) and psychiatric inpatient care (aHR 2.8; 95% CI 2.0–3.9). Comparisons with controls matched on reassigned sex yielded similar results. Female-to-males, but not male-to-females, had a higher risk for criminal convictions than their respective birth sex controls.

Conclusions

Persons with transsexualism, after sex reassignment, have considerably higher risks for mortality, suicidal behaviour, and psychiatric morbidity than the general population. Our findings suggest that sex reassignment, although alleviating gender dysphoria, may not suffice as treatment for transsexualism, and should inspire improved psychiatric and somatic care after sex reassignment for this patient group.     

Efficacy and safety of abciximab in diabetic patients who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention with thienopyridines loading: a meta-analysis

Background

It has been controversial whether abciximab offered additional benefits for diabetic patients who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) with thienopyridines loading.

Methods

MEDLINE, EMBASE, the Cochrane library clinical trials registry, ISI Science Citation Index, ISI Web of Knowledge and China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) were searched, supplemented with manual-screening for relevant publications. Quantitative meta-analyses were performed to assess differences between abciximab groups and controls with respect to post-PCI risk of major cardiac events (MACEs), angiographic restenosis and bleeding complications.

Results

9 trials were identified, involving 2,607 diabetic patients receiving PCI for coronary artery diseases. Among those patients who underwent elective PCI or primary PCI, pooling results showed that abciximab did not significantly reduce risks of MACEs (for elective-PCI patients: RR_1-month: 0.93, 95% CI: 0.60–1.44; RR_1-year: 0.95, 95% CI: 0.81–1.11; for primary-PCI patients: RR_1-month: 1.05, 95% CI: 0.70–1.57; RR_1-year: 0.98, 95% CI: 0.80–1.21), nor all-cause mortality, re-infarction and angiographic restenosis in either group. The only beneficial effect by abciximab appeared to be a decrease 1-year TLR (target lesion revascularization) risk in elective-PCI patients (RR1-year: 0.83, 95% CI: 0.70–0.99). Moreover, occurrence of minor bleeding complications increased in elective-PCI patients treated with abciximab (RR: 2.94, 95% CI: 1.68–5.13, P<0.001), whereas major bleedings rate was similar (RR: 0.83, 95% CI: 0.27–2.57).

Conclusions

Concomitant dosing of abciximab and thienopyridines provides no additional benefit among diabetic patients who underwent PCI; this conclusion, though, needs further confirmation in larger studies.     

Rosiglitazone and Myocardial Infarction in Patients Previously Prescribed Metformin

Objective

Rosiglitazone was found associated with approximately a 43% increase in risk of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in a two meta-analyses of clinical trials. Our objective is to estimate the magnitude of the association in real-world patients previously treated with metformin.

Research Design and Methods

We conducted a nested case control study in British Columbia using health care databases on 4.3 million people. Our cohort consisted of 158,578 patients with Type 2 diabetes who used metformin as first-line drug treatment. We matched 2,244 cases of myocardial infarction (AMI) with up to 4 controls. Conditional logistic regression models were used to estimate matched odds ratios for AMI associated with treatment with rosiglitazone, pioglitazone and sulfonylureas.

Results

In our cohort of prior metformin users, adding rosiglitazone for up to 6 months was not associated with an increased risk of AMI compared to adding a sulfonylurea (odds ratio [OR] 1.38; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.91–2.10), or compared to adding pioglitazone (OR for rosi versus pio 1.41; 95% CI, 0.74–2.66). There were also no significant differences between rosiglitazone, pioglitazone and sulfonylureas for longer durations of treatment. Though not significantly different from sulfonylureas, there was a transient increase in AMI risk associated with the first 6 months of treatment with a glitazone compared to not using the treatment (OR 1.53; 95% CI, 1.13–2.07)

Conclusions

In our British Columbia cohort of patients who received metformin as first-line pharmacotherapy for Type 2 diabetes mellitus, further treatment with rosiglitazone did not increase the risk of AMI compared to patients who were treated with pioglitazone or a sulfonylurea. Though not statistically significantly different compared from each other, an increased risk of AMI observed after starting rosiglitazone or sulfonylureas is a matter of concern that requires more research.     

Epidemiology of mortality related to Chagas' disease in Brazil, 1999-2007

Background

Chagas'' disease is an important neglected public health problem in many Latin American countries, but population-based epidemiological data are scarce. Here we present a nationwide analysis on Chagas-associated mortality, and risk factors for death from this disease.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We analyzed all death certificates of individuals who died between 1999 and 2007 in Brazil, based on the nationwide Mortality Information System (a total of 243 data sets with about 9 million entries). Chagas'' disease was mentioned in 53,930 (0.6%) of death certificates, with 44,537 (82.6%) as an underlying cause and 9,387 (17.4%) as an associated cause of death. Acute Chagas'' disease was responsible for 2.8% of deaths. The mean standardized mortality rate was 3.36/100.000 inhabitants/year. Nationwide standardized mortality rates reduced gradually, from 3.78 (1999) to 2.78 (2007) deaths/year per 100,000 inhabitants (−26.4%). Standardized mortality rates were highest in the Central-West region, ranging from 15.23 in 1999 to 9.46 in 2007 (−37.9%), with a significant negative linear trend (p = 0.001; R² = 82%). Proportional mortality considering multiple causes of death was 0.60%. The Central-West showed highest proportional mortality among regions (2.17%), with a significant linear negative trend, from 2.28% to 1.90% (−19.5%; p = 0.001; R² = 84%). There was a significant increase in the Northeast of 38.5% (p = 0.006; R² = 82%). Bivariable analysis on risk factors for death from Chagas'' disease showed highest relative risks (RR) in older age groups (RR: 10.03; 95% CI: 9.40–10.70; p<0.001) and those residing in the Central-West region (RR: 15.01; 95% CI: 3.90–16.22; p<0.001). In logistic regression analysis, age ≥30 years (adjusted OR: 10.81; 95% CI: 10.03–10.65; p<0.001) and residence in one of the three high risk states Minas Gerais, Goiás or the Federal District (adjusted OR: 5.12; 95% CI: 5.03–5.22, p<0.001) maintained important independent risk factors for death by Chagas'' disease.

Conclusions/Significance

This is the first nationwide population-based study on Chagas mortality in Brazil, considering multiple causes of death. Despite the decline of mortality associated with Chagas'' disease in Brazil, the disease remains a serious public health problem with marked regional differences.     

A large change in temperature between neighbouring days increases the risk of mortality

Background

Previous studies have found high temperatures increase the risk of mortality in summer. However, little is known about whether a sharp decrease or increase in temperature between neighbouring days has any effect on mortality.

Method

Poisson regression models were used to estimate the association between temperature change and mortality in summer in Brisbane, Australia during 1996–2004 and Los Angeles, United States during 1987–2000. The temperature change was calculated as the current day''s mean temperature minus the previous day''s mean.

Results

In Brisbane, a drop of more than 3°C in temperature between days was associated with relative risks (RRs) of 1.157 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.024, 1.307) for total non-external mortality (NEM), 1.186 (95%CI: 1.002, 1.405) for NEM in females, and 1.442 (95%CI: 1.099, 1.892) for people aged 65–74 years. An increase of more than 3°C was associated with RRs of 1.353 (95%CI: 1.033, 1.772) for cardiovascular mortality and 1.667 (95%CI: 1.146, 2.425) for people aged <65 years. In Los Angeles, only a drop of more than 3°C was significantly associated with RRs of 1.133 (95%CI: 1.053, 1.219) for total NEM, 1.252 (95%CI: 1.131, 1.386) for cardiovascular mortality, and 1.254 (95%CI: 1.135, 1.385) for people aged ≥75 years. In both cities, there were joint effects of temperature change and mean temperature on NEM.

Conclusion

A significant change in temperature of more than 3°C, whether positive or negative, has an adverse impact on mortality even after controlling for the current temperature.     

Achieving MDG 4 in Sub-Saharan Africa: What Has Contributed to the Accelerated Child Mortality Decline in Ghana?

Background

Recent analyses have suggested an accelerated decline in child mortality in Ghana since 2000. This study examines the long-term child mortality trends in the country, relates them to changes in the key drivers of mortality decline, and assesses the feasibility of the country''s MDG 4 attainment.

Methodology

Data from five Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) between 1988 and 2008 and the Maternal Health Survey 2007 were used to generate two-year estimates of under-five mortality rates back to 1967. Lowess regression fitted past and future trends towards 2015. A modified Poisson approach was applied on the person-period data created from the DHS 2003 and 2008 to examine determinants of under-five mortality and their contributions to the change in mortality. A policy-modelling system assessed the feasibility of the country''s MDG 4 attainment.

Findings

The under-five mortality rate has steadily declined over the past 40 years with acceleration since 2000, and is projected to reach between 45 and 69 per 1000 live births in 2015. Preceding birth interval (reference: 36+ months, relative risk [RR] increased as the interval shortened), bed net use (RR 0.71, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.52–0.95), maternal education (reference: secondary/higher, RR 1.71, 95% CI: 1.18–2.47 for primary), and maternal age at birth (reference: 17+ years, RR 2.13, 95% CI: 1.12–4.05) were primarily associated with under-five mortality. Increased bed-net use made a substantial contribution to the mortality decline. The scale-up of key interventions will allow the possibility of Ghana''s MDG 4 attainment.

Conclusions

National and global efforts for scaling up key child survival interventions in Ghana are paying off ― these concerted efforts need to be sustained in order to achieve MDG 4.     

Perinatal mortality in eastern Uganda: a community based prospective cohort study

Background

To achieve a child mortality reduction according to millennium development goal 4, it is necessary to considerably reduce neonatal mortality. We report stillbirth and early neonatal mortality risks as well as determinants of perinatal mortality in Eastern Uganda.

Methods

A community-based prospective cohort study was conducted between 2006 and 2008. A total of 835 pregnant women were followed up for pregnancy outcome and survival of their children until 7 days after delivery. Mother''s residence, age, parity, bed net use and whether delivery took place at home were included in multivariable regression analyses to identify risk factors for perinatal death.

Results

The stillbirth risk was 19 per 1,000 pregnancies and the early neonatal death risk 22 per 1,000 live births. Overall, the perinatal mortality risk was 41 [95%CI: 27, 54] per 1,000 pregnancies. Of the deaths, 47% followed complicated deliveries and 24% preterm births. Perinatal mortality was 63/1,000 pregnancies among teenage mothers, 76/1,000 pregnancies among nulliparous women and 61/1,000 pregnancies among women delivering at home who, after controlling for potential confounders, had a 3.7 (95%CI: 1.8, 7.4) times higher perinatal mortality than women who gave birth in a health facility. This association was considerably stronger among nulliparous women [RR 8.0 (95%CI: 2.9, 21.6)] than among women with a previous live birth [RR 1.8 (95%CI: 0.7, 4.5)]. All perinatal deaths occurred among women who did not sleep under a mosquito net. Women living in urban slums had a higher risk of losing their babies than those in rural areas [RR: 2.7 (95%CI: 1.4, 5.3)].

Conclusion

Our findings strengthen arguments for ensuring that pregnant women have access to and use adequate delivery facilities and bed nets.     

Adult Mortality Attributable to Preventable Risk Factors for Non-Communicable Diseases and Injuries in Japan: A Comparative Risk Assessment

Background

The population of Japan has achieved the longest life expectancy in the world. To further improve population health, consistent and comparative evidence on mortality attributable to preventable risk factors is necessary for setting priorities for health policies and programs. Although several past studies have quantified the impact of individual risk factors in Japan, to our knowledge no study has assessed and compared the effects of multiple modifiable risk factors for non-communicable diseases and injuries using a standard framework. We estimated the effects of 16 risk factors on cause-specific deaths and life expectancy in Japan.

Methods and Findings

We obtained data on risk factor exposures from the National Health and Nutrition Survey and epidemiological studies, data on the number of cause-specific deaths from vital records adjusted for ill-defined codes, and data on relative risks from epidemiological studies and meta-analyses. We applied a comparative risk assessment framework to estimate effects of excess risks on deaths and life expectancy at age 40 y. In 2007, tobacco smoking and high blood pressure accounted for 129,000 deaths (95% CI: 115,000–154,000) and 104,000 deaths (95% CI: 86,000–119,000), respectively, followed by physical inactivity (52,000 deaths, 95% CI: 47,000–58,000), high blood glucose (34,000 deaths, 95% CI: 26,000–43,000), high dietary salt intake (34,000 deaths, 95% CI: 27,000–39,000), and alcohol use (31,000 deaths, 95% CI: 28,000–35,000). In recent decades, cancer mortality attributable to tobacco smoking has increased in the elderly, while stroke mortality attributable to high blood pressure has declined. Life expectancy at age 40 y in 2007 would have been extended by 1.4 y for both sexes (men, 95% CI: 1.3–1.6; women, 95% CI: 1.2–1.7) if exposures to multiple cardiovascular risk factors had been reduced to their optimal levels as determined by a theoretical-minimum-risk exposure distribution.

Conclusions

Tobacco smoking and high blood pressure are the two major risk factors for adult mortality from non-communicable diseases and injuries in Japan. There is a large potential population health gain if multiple risk factors are jointly controlled. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Lack of effect of lowering LDL cholesterol on cancer: meta-analysis of individual data from 175,000 people in 27 randomised trials of statin therapy

Background

Statin therapy reduces the risk of occlusive vascular events, but uncertainty remains about potential effects on cancer. We sought to provide a detailed assessment of any effects on cancer of lowering LDL cholesterol (LDL-C) with a statin using individual patient records from 175,000 patients in 27 large-scale statin trials.

Methods and Findings

Individual records of 134,537 participants in 22 randomised trials of statin versus control (median duration 4.8 years) and 39,612 participants in 5 trials of more intensive versus less intensive statin therapy (median duration 5.1 years) were obtained. Reducing LDL-C with a statin for about 5 years had no effect on newly diagnosed cancer or on death from such cancers in either the trials of statin versus control (cancer incidence: 3755 [1.4% per year [py]] versus 3738 [1.4% py], RR 1.00 [95% CI 0.96-1.05]; cancer mortality: 1365 [0.5% py] versus 1358 [0.5% py], RR 1.00 [95% CI 0.93–1.08]) or in the trials of more versus less statin (cancer incidence: 1466 [1.6% py] vs 1472 [1.6% py], RR 1.00 [95% CI 0.93–1.07]; cancer mortality: 447 [0.5% py] versus 481 [0.5% py], RR 0.93 [95% CI 0.82–1.06]). Moreover, there was no evidence of any effect of reducing LDL-C with statin therapy on cancer incidence or mortality at any of 23 individual categories of sites, with increasing years of treatment, for any individual statin, or in any given subgroup. In particular, among individuals with low baseline LDL-C (<2 mmol/L), there was no evidence that further LDL-C reduction (from about 1.7 to 1.3 mmol/L) increased cancer risk (381 [1.6% py] versus 408 [1.7% py]; RR 0.92 [99% CI 0.76–1.10]).

Conclusions

In 27 randomised trials, a median of five years of statin therapy had no effect on the incidence of, or mortality from, any type of cancer (or the aggregate of all cancer).     

Long-term mortality in patients with tuberculous meningitis: a Danish nationwide cohort study

Background

With high short-term mortality and substantial excess morbidity among survivors, tuberculous meningitis (TBM) is the most severe manifestation of extra-pulmonary tuberculosis (TB). The objective of this study was to assess the long-term mortality and causes of death in a TBM patient population compared to the background population.

Methods

A nationwide cohort study was conducted enrolling patients notified with TBM in Denmark from 1972–2008 and alive one year after TBM diagnosis. Data was extracted from national registries. From the background population we identified a control cohort of individuals matched on gender and date of birth. Kaplan-Meier survival curves and Cox regression analysis were used to estimate mortality rate ratios (MRR) and analyse causes of death.

Findings

A total of 55 TBM patients and 550 individuals from the background population were included in the study. Eighteen patients (32.7%) and 107 population controls (19.5%) died during the observation period. The overall MRR was 1.79 (95%CI: 1.09–2.95) for TBM patients compared to the population control cohort. TBM patients in the age group 31–60 years at time of diagnosis had the highest relative risk of death (MRR 2.68; 95%CI 1.34–5.34). The TBM patients had a higher risk of death due to infectious disease, but not from other causes of death.

Conclusion

Adult TBM patients have an almost two-fold increased long-term mortality and the excess mortality stems from infectious disease related causes of death.     

Associated factors for falls among the community-dwelling older people assessed by annual geriatric health examinations

Background

Falls are very common among the older people. Nearly one-third older people living in a community fall each year. However, few studies have examined factors associated with falls in a community-dwelling population of older Taiwanese adults.

Objectives

To identify the associated factors for falls during the previous 12 months among the community-dwelling Taiwanese older people receiving annual geriatric health examinations.

Participants

People aged sixty-five years or older, living in the community, assessed by annual geriatric health examinations

Methods

1377 community-dwellers aged ≥65 years who received annual geriatric health examinations at one hospital in northern Taiwan between March and November of 2008. They were asked about their history of falls during the year prior to their most recent health examination.

Results

The average age of the 1377 participants was 74.9±6.8 years, 48.9% of which were women. Three-hundred and thirteen of the participants (22.7%) had at least one fall during the previous year. Multivariate analysis showed that odds ratio for the risk of falling was 1.94 (95% CI 1.36-2.76) when the female gender group is compared with the male gender group. The adjusted odds ratios of age and waist circumference were 1.03 (95% CI 1.00–1.06) and 1.03 (95% CI 1.01–1.05) respectively. The adjusted odds ratios of visual acuity, Karnofsky scale, and serum albumin level were 0.34 (95% CI 0.15–0.76), 0.94 (95% CI 0.89–0.98), and 0.37 (95% CI 0.18–0.76) respectively. Larger waist circumference, older age, female gender, poorer visual acuity, lower score on the Karnofsky Performance Scale, and lower serum albumin level were the independent associated factors for falls.

Conclusion

In addition to other associated factors, waist circumference should be included as a novel risk factor for falls.     

Does HAART Efficacy Translate to Effectiveness? Evidence for a Trial Effect

Background

Patients who participate in clinical trials may experience better clinical outcomes than patients who initiate similar therapy within clinical care (trial effect), but no published studies have evaluated a trial effect in HIV clinical trials.

Methods

To examine a trial effect we compared virologic suppression (VS) among patients who initiated HAART in a clinical trial versus in routine clinical care. VS was defined as a plasma HIV RNA ≤400 copies/ml at six months after HAART initiation and was assessed within strata of early (1996–99) or current (2000–06) HAART periods. Risk ratios (RR) were estimated using binomial models.

Results

Of 738 persons initiating HAART, 30.6% were women, 61.7% were black, 30% initiated therapy in a clinical trial and 67% (n = 496) had an evaluable six month HIV RNA result. HAART regimens differed between the early and current periods (p<0.001); unboosted PI regimens (55.6%) were more common in the early and NNRTI regimens (46.4%) were more common in the current period. Overall, 78% (95%CI 74, 82%) of patients achieved VS and trial participants were 16% more likely to achieve VS (unadjusted RR 1.16, 95%CI 1.06, 1.27). Comparing trial to non-trial participants, VS differed by study period. In the early period, trial participants initiating HAART were significantly more likely to achieve VS than non-trial participants (adjusted RR 1.33; 95%CI 1.15, 1.54), but not in the current period (adjusted RR 0.98; 95%CI 0.87, 1.11).

Conclusions

A clear clinical trial effect on suppression of HIV replication was observed in the early HAART period but not in the current period.     

Five-year prognosis in an incident cohort of people presenting with acute myocardial infarction

Background

Following an AMI, it is important for patients and their physicians to appreciate the subsequent risk of death, and the potential benefits of invasive cardiac procedures and secondary preventive therapy. Studies, to-date, have focused largely on high-risk populations. We wished to determine the risk of death in a population-derived cohort of 2,887 patients after a first acute myocardial infarction (AMI).

Methods

Logistic regression and survival analysis were conducted to investigate the effect of different baseline characteristics, pharmacological therapies and revascularization procedures on coronary heart disease (CHD) and all-cause mortality outcomes.

Results

Within five years 44.4% of patients died (27.1% short-term [<30 days] and 23.7% longer-term [≥30 days]). Percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty (Adjusted Hazards Ratio (AHR) = 0.49, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 0.26–0.93), β-blockers (AHR = 0.58, 95%CI 0.46–0.74) and statins (AHR = 0.60, 95%CI 0.47–0.77) were all associated with significant reductions in longer-term CHD-related mortality. However, not all patients received secondary preventive therapy (8.7%). Diabetes (AHR = 1.83, 95%CI 1.43–2.34), stroke (AHR = 1.73, 95%CI 1.35–2.22), heart failure (AHR = 1.69, 95%CI 1.28–2.22), smoking (AHR = 1.72, 95%CI 1.18–2.51) and obesity (>30 kg/m2; AHR = 1.39, 95%CI 1.01–1.90) increased the risk of longer-term mortality independent of other risk factors.

Conclusions

It is encouraging that the coronary procedure PTCA and pharmacological secondary prevention therapies were found to be strongly associated with an important reduced risk of subsequent death, although not all patients received these interventions. Smoking, being obese and having cardiovascular related disease at baseline were also associated with an increased likelihood of longer-term mortality, independent of other baseline characteristics. Thus, the provision of smoking cessation, advice on diet (for obese patients) and optimal treatment is likely to be crucial for reducing mortality in all patients after AMI.     

Prediction of emergent heart failure death by semi-quantitative triage risk stratification

Objectives

Generic triage risk assessments are widely used in the emergency department (ED), but have not been validated for prediction of short-term risk among patients with acute heart failure (HF). Our objective was to evaluate the Canadian Triage Acuity Scale (CTAS) for prediction of early death among HF patients.

Methods

We included patients presenting with HF to an ED in Ontario from Apr 2003 to Mar 2007. We used the National Ambulatory Care Reporting System and vital statistics databases to examine care and outcomes.

Results

Among 68,380 patients (76±12 years, 49.4% men), early mortality was stratified with death rates of 9.9%, 1.9%, 0.9%, and 0.5% at 1-day, and 17.2%, 5.9%, 3.8%, and 2.5% at 7-days, for CTAS 1, 2, 3, and 4–5, respectively. Compared to lower acuity (CTAS 4–5) patients, adjusted odds ratios (aOR) for 1-day death were 1.32 (95%CI; 0.93–1.88; p = 0.12) for CTAS 3, 2.41 (95%CI; 1.71–3.40; p<0.001) for CTAS 2, and highest for CTAS 1: 9.06 (95%CI; 6.28–13.06; p<0.001). Predictors of triage-critical (CTAS 1) status included oxygen saturation <90% (aOR 5.92, 95%CI; 3.09–11.81; p<0.001), respiratory rate >24 breaths/minute (aOR 1.96, 95%CI; 1.05–3.67; p = 0.034), and arrival by paramedic (aOR 3.52, 95%CI; 1.70–8.02; p = 0.001). While age/sex-adjusted CTAS score provided good discrimination for ED (c-statistic = 0.817) and 1-day (c-statistic = 0.724) death, mortality prediction was improved further after accounting for cardiac and non-cardiac co-morbidities (c-statistics 0.882 and 0.810, respectively; both p<0.001).

Conclusions

A semi-quantitative triage acuity scale assigned at ED presentation and based largely on respiratory factors predicted emergent death among HF patients.     

Association of age with mortality and virological and immunological response to antiretroviral therapy in rural South African adults

Objective

To assess whether treatment outcomes vary with age for adults receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) in a large rural HIV treatment cohort.

Design

Retrospective cohort analysis using data from a public HIV Treatment & Care Programme.

Methods

Adults initiating ART 1^st August 2004 - 31^st October 2009 were stratified by age at initiation: young adults (16–24 years) mid-age adults (25–49 years) and older (≥50 years) adults. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was used to estimate mortality rates and age and person-time stratified Cox regression to determine factors associated with mortality. Changes in CD4 cell counts were quantified using a piecewise linear model based on follow-up CD4 cell counts measured at six-monthly time points.

Results

8846 adults were included, 808 (9.1%) young adults; 7119 (80.5%) mid-age adults and 919 (10.4%) older adults, with 997 deaths over 14,778 person-years of follow-up. Adjusting for baseline characteristics, older adults had 32% excess mortality (p = 0.004) compared to those aged 25–49 years. Overall mortality rates (MR) per 100 person-years were 6.18 (95% CI 4.90–7.78); 6.55 (95% CI 6.11–7.02) and 8.69 (95% CI 7.34–10.28) for young, mid-age and older adults respectively. In the first year on ART, for older compared to both young and mid-aged adults, MR per 100 person-years were significantly higher; 0–3 months (MR: 27.1 vs 17.17 and 21.36) and 3–12 months (MR: 9.5 vs 4.02 and 6.02) respectively. CD4 count reconstitution was lower, despite better virological response in the older adults. There were no significant differences in MR after 1year of ART. Baseline markers of advanced disease were independently associated with very early mortality (0–3 months) whilst immunological and virological responses were associated with mortality after 12months.

Conclusions

Early ART initiation and improving clinical care of older adults are required to reduce high early mortality and enhance immunologic recovery, particularly in the initial phases of ART.     

Marital status and mortality among middle age and elderly men and women in urban Shanghai

Background

Previous studies have suggested that marital status is associated with mortality, but few studies have been conducted in China where increasing aging population and divorce rates may have major impact on health and total mortality.

Methods

We examined the association of marital status with mortality using data from the Shanghai Women''s Health Study (1996–2009) and Shanghai Men''s Health Study (2002–2009), two population-based cohort studies of 74,942 women aged 40–70 years and 61,500 men aged 40–74 years at the study enrollment. Deaths were identified by biennial home visits and record linkage with the vital statistics registry. Marital status was categorized as married, never married, divorced, widowed, and all unmarried categories combined. Cox regression models were used to derive hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI).

Results

Unmarried and widowed women had an increased all-cause HR = 1.11, 95% CI: 1.03, 1.21 and HR = 1.10, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.20 respectively) and cancer (HR = 1.17, 95% CI: 1.04, 1.32 and HR = 1.18, 95% CI: 1.04, 1.34 respectively) mortality. Never married women had excess all-cause mortality (HR = 1.46, 95% CI: 1.03, 2.09). Divorce was associated with elevated cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality in women (HR = 1.47, 95% CI: 1.01, 2.13) and elevated all-cause mortality (HR = 2.45, 95% CI: 1.55, 3.86) in men. Amongst men, not being married was associated with excess all-cause (HR = 1.45, 95% CI: 1.12, 1.88) and CVD (HR = 1.65, 95% CI: 1.07, 2.54) mortality.

Conclusions

Marriage is associated with decreased all cause mortality and CVD mortality, in particular, among both Chinese men and women.     

Early clinical manifestations associated with death from visceral leishmaniasis

Background

In Brazil, lethality from visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is high and few studies have addressed prognostic factors. This historical cohort study was designed to investigate the prognostic factors for death from VL in Belo Horizonte (Brazil).

Methodology

The analysis was based on data of the Reportable Disease Information System-SINAN (Brazilian Ministry of Health) relating to the clinical manifestations of the disease. During the study period (2002–2009), the SINAN changed platform from a Windows to a Net-version that differed with respect to some of the parameters collected. Multivariate logistic regression models were performed to identify variables associated with death from VL, and these were included in prognostic score.

Principal Findings

Model 1 (period 2002–2009; 111 deaths from VL and 777 cured patients) included the variables present in both SINAN versions, whereas Model 2 (period 2007–2009; 49 deaths from VL and 327 cured patients) included variables common to both SINAN versions plus the additional variables included in the Net version. In Model 1, the variables significantly associated with a greater risk of death from VL were weakness (OR 2.9; 95%CI 1.3–6.4), Leishmania-HIV co-infection (OR 2.4; 95%CI 1.2–4.8) and age ≥60 years (OR 2.5; 95%CI 1.5–4.3). In Model 2, the variables were bleeding (OR 3.5; 95%CI 1.2–10.3), other associated infections (OR 3.2; 95%CI 1.3–7.8), jaundice (OR 10.1; 95%CI 3.7–27.2) and age ≥60 years (OR 3.1; 95%CI 1.4–7.1). The prognosis score was developed using the variables associated with death from VL of the latest version of the SINAN (Model 2). The predictive performance of which was evaluated by sensitivity (71.4%), specificity (73.7%), positive and negative predictive values (28.9% and 94.5%) and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (75.6%).

Conclusions

Knowledge regarding the factors associated with death from VL may improve clinical management of patients and contribute to lower mortality.