Combining model structure identification and hybrid modelling for photo-production process predictive simulation and optimisation

Integrating physical knowledge and machine learning is a critical aspect of developing industrially focused digital twins for monitoring, optimisation, and design of microalgal and cyanobacterial photo-production processes. However, identifying the correct model structure to quantify the complex biological mechanism poses a severe challenge for the construction of kinetic models, while the lack of data due to the time-consuming experiments greatly impedes applications of most data-driven models. This study proposes the use of an innovative hybrid modelling approach that consists of a simple kinetic model to govern the overall process dynamic trajectory and a data-driven model to estimate mismatch between the kinetic equations and the real process. An advanced automatic model structure identification strategy is adopted to simultaneously identify the most physically probable kinetic model structure and minimum number of data-driven model parameters that can accurately represent multiple data sets over a broad spectrum of process operating conditions. Through this hybrid modelling and automatic structure identification framework, a highly accurate mathematical model was constructed to simulate and optimise an algal lutein production process. Performance of this hybrid model for long-term predictive modelling, optimisation, and online self-calibration is demonstrated and thoroughly discussed, indicating its significant potential for future industrial application.     

Rapid reworking of subtidal sediments by burrowing spatangoid urchins

The mixing and displacement of sediment by benthic macrofauna (bioturbation) has major biogeochemical implications, and can control rates of organic matter degradation and carbon burial. Large, abundant, mobile macrofauna often dominate sediment bioturbation, and heart urchins of the genus Echinocardium are regarded as key sediment bioturbators in marine systems throughout the world. To better understand the bioturbation potential and functional role of Echinocardium, we developed a mathematical model and parameterized it with field data from six locations in northern New Zealand in order to estimate bioturbation rates in these places. Although urchin sizes and densities were measured in consecutive years at all six locations, we obtained a third model parameter, urchin movement rate, from one time and place only (Site OB5). Because confidence in model output was greatest at OB5, and since OB5 had the highest sediment reworking rate of all sites, our model yielded a good upper bound estimate for the bioturbation potential of Echinocardium in the areas examined. The volume of sediment displaced by Echinocardium populations reached 20,000 cm³ m⁻² d⁻¹ at OB5, suggesting that surface sediment is reworked about every 3 days at sites where Echinocardium is abundant. Experimental work with a fluorescent tracer at OB5 suggested limited downward particle movement as a result of Echinocardium bioturbation, though vertical profiles of chlorophyll a and organic matter content indicated well mixed sediment. The loss of Echinocardium because of broad-scale anthropogenic disturbance to the seabed could have major consequences on marine ecosystem functioning.     

Development of a new version of the Liverpool Malaria Model. II. Calibration and validation for West Africa

Mathematical models have been used to provide an explicit framework for understanding malaria transmission dynamics in human population for over 100 years. With the disease still thriving and threatening to be a major source of death and disability due to changed environmental and socio-economic conditions, it is necessary to make a critical assessment of the existing models, and study their evolution and efficacy in describing the host-parasite biology. In this article, starting from the basic Ross model, the key mathematical models and their underlying features, based on their specific contributions in the understanding of spread and transmission of malaria have been discussed. The first aim of this article is to develop, starting from the basic models, a hierarchical structure of a range of deterministic models of different levels of complexity. The second objective is to elaborate, using some of the representative mathematical models, the evolution of modelling strategies to describe malaria incidence by including the critical features of host-vector-parasite interactions. Emphasis is more on the evolution of the deterministic differential equation based epidemiological compartment models with a brief discussion on data based statistical models. In this comprehensive survey, the approach has been to summarize the modelling activity in this area so that it helps reach a wider range of researchers working on epidemiology, transmission, and other aspects of malaria. This may facilitate the mathematicians to further develop suitable models in this direction relevant to the present scenario, and help the biologists and public health personnel to adopt better understanding of the modelling strategies to control the disease     

A New Approach for the Modelling of Sediment Reworking Induced by a Macrobenthic Community

A new model of bioturbation has been developed to describe short term sediment reworking induced by macrobenthic communities. The design of the model had to consider the mixing processes, firstly, at the organism level, and secondly, at community level. This paper describes the mixing mode of the four types of bioturbators defined by the authors: the biodiffusors, the upward-conveyors, the downward-conveyors and the regenerators. The mathematical formulation of these sub-models consists of ordinary differential equations. They take into account the size of the bioturbated zone, the output fluxes to the water column, tracer decay, physical mixing due to local currents and the type and intensity of the bioturbation processes. These sub-models make it possible to describe correctly the mixing events that have occurred in cores with each type of bioturbator. They also provide the basis for general bioturbation model, that will take into account the respective degrees of involvement of (i) the different bioturbation processes and their characteristics, (ii) the interference between the different processes, and (iii) make possible to predict the particle reworking in order to include it in studies of organic matter in early diagenesis. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Power-law models of signal transduction pathways

The mathematical modelling of signal transduction pathways has become a valuable aid to understanding the complex interactions involved in intracellular signalling mechanisms. An important aspect of the mathematical modelling process is the selection of the model type and structure. Until recently, the convention has been to use a standard kinetic model, often with the Michaelis-Menten steady state assumption. However this model form, although valuable, is only one of a number of choices, and the aim of this article is to consider the mathematical structure and essential features of an alternative model form--the power-law model. Specifically, we analyse how power-law models can be applied to increase our understanding of signal transduction pathways when there may be limited prior information. We distinguish between two kinds of power law models: a) Detailed power-law models, as a tool for investigating pathways when the structure of protein-protein interactions is completely known, and; b) Simplified power-law models, for the analysis of systems with incomplete structural information or insufficient quantitative data for generating detailed models. If sufficient data of high quality are available, the advantage of detailed power-law models is that they are more realistic representations of non-homogenous or crowded cellular environments. The advantages of the simplified power-law model formulation are illustrated using some case studies in cell signalling. In particular, the investigation on the effects of signal inhibition and feedback loops and the validation of structural hypotheses are discussed.     

A framework for modelling soil structure dynamics induced by biological activity

Soil degradation is a worsening global phenomenon driven by socio‐economic pressures, poor land management practices and climate change. A deterioration of soil structure at timescales ranging from seconds to centuries is implicated in most forms of soil degradation including the depletion of nutrients and organic matter, erosion and compaction. New soil–crop models that could account for soil structure dynamics at decadal to centennial timescales would provide insights into the relative importance of the various underlying physical (e.g. tillage, traffic compaction, swell/shrink and freeze/thaw) and biological (e.g. plant root growth, soil microbial and faunal activity) mechanisms, their impacts on soil hydrological processes and plant growth, as well as the relevant timescales of soil degradation and recovery. However, the development of such a model remains a challenge due to the enormous complexity of the interactions in the soil–plant system. In this paper, we focus on the impacts of biological processes on soil structure dynamics, especially the growth of plant roots and the activity of soil fauna and microorganisms. We first define what we mean by soil structure and then review current understanding of how these biological agents impact soil structure. We then develop a new framework for modelling soil structure dynamics, which is designed to be compatible with soil–crop models that operate at the soil profile scale and for long temporal scales (i.e. decades, centuries). We illustrate the modelling concept with a case study on the role of root growth and earthworm bioturbation in restoring the structure of a severely compacted soil.     

A mechanistic framework for a priori pharmacokinetic predictions of orally inhaled drugs

The fate of orally inhaled drugs is determined by pulmonary pharmacokinetic processes such as particle deposition, pulmonary drug dissolution, and mucociliary clearance. Even though each single process has been systematically investigated, a quantitative understanding on the interaction of processes remains limited and therefore identifying optimal drug and formulation characteristics for orally inhaled drugs is still challenging. To investigate this complex interplay, the pulmonary processes can be integrated into mathematical models. However, existing modeling attempts considerably simplify these processes or are not systematically evaluated against (clinical) data. In this work, we developed a mathematical framework based on physiologically-structured population equations to integrate all relevant pulmonary processes mechanistically. A tailored numerical resolution strategy was chosen and the mechanistic model was evaluated systematically against data from different clinical studies. Without adapting the mechanistic model or estimating kinetic parameters based on individual study data, the developed model was able to predict simultaneously (i) lung retention profiles of inhaled insoluble particles, (ii) particle size-dependent pharmacokinetics of inhaled monodisperse particles, (iii) pharmacokinetic differences between inhaled fluticasone propionate and budesonide, as well as (iv) pharmacokinetic differences between healthy volunteers and asthmatic patients. Finally, to identify the most impactful optimization criteria for orally inhaled drugs, the developed mechanistic model was applied to investigate the impact of input parameters on both the pulmonary and systemic exposure. Interestingly, the solubility of the inhaled drug did not have any relevant impact on the local and systemic pharmacokinetics. Instead, the pulmonary dissolution rate, the particle size, the tissue affinity, and the systemic clearance were the most impactful potential optimization parameters. In the future, the developed prediction framework should be considered a powerful tool for identifying optimal drug and formulation characteristics.     

Do black-box models of thermoregulation still have any research value? Contribution of system-theoretical models to the analysis of thermoregulation.

The aims and the usefulness of modelling the thermoregulatory system are outlined by demonstrating applications and results of simulation on different levels of complexity. It is shown that both very simple one-loop models and complex models based on spatially distributed parameters have contributed to a better understanding of the system, but that current issues primarily require the latter type. However, mathematical modelling must be performed in conjunction with experimental studies and must be adapted to the amount of basic physiological data. Future fields of modelling are the adaptive mechanisms and the interactions of systems.     

Robust, quantitative tools for modelling ex-vivo expansion of haematopoietic stem cells and progenitors

Despite substantial research activity on bioreactor design and experiments, there are very few reports of modelling tools that can be used to generate predictive models describing how bioreactor parameters affect performance. New developments in mathematics, such as sparse Bayesian feature selection methods and nonlinear model-free modelling regression methods, offer considerable promise for modelling diverse types of data. The utility of these mathematical tools in stem cell biology are demonstrated by analysis of a large set of bioreactor data derived from the literature. In spite of the diversity of the data sources, and the inherent difficulty in representing bioreactor variables, these modelling methods were able to develop robust, quantitative, predictive models. These models relate bioreactor operational parameters to the degree of expansion of haematopoietic stem cells or their progenitors, and also identify the bioreactor variables that are most likely to affect performance across many experiments. These methods show substantial promise in assisting the design and optimisation of stem cell bioreactors.     

A mathematical and statistical framework for modelling dispersal

Mechanistic and phenomenological dispersal modelling of organisms has long been an area of intensive research. Recently, there has been an increased interest in intermediate models between the two. Intermediate models include major mechanisms that affect dispersal, in addition to the dispersal curve of a phenomenological model. Here we review and describe the mathematical and statistical framework for phenomenological dispersal modelling. In the mathematical development we describe modelling of dispersal in two dimensions from a point source, and in one dimension from a line or area source. In the statistical development we describe applicable observation distributions, and the procedures of model fitting, comparison, checking, and prediction. The procedures are also demonstrated using data from dispersal experiments. The data are hierarchically structured, and hence, we fit hierarchical models. The Bayesian modelling approach is applied, which allows us to show the uncertainty in the parameter estimates and in predictions. Finally, we show how to account for the effect of wind speed on the estimates of the dispersal parameters. This serves as an example of how to strengthen the coupling in the modelling between the phenomenon observed in an experiment and the underlying process – something that should be striven for in the statistical modelling of dispersal.     

Mathematical modelling in the post-genome era: understanding genome expression and regulation--a system theoretic approach

This paper introduces a mathematical framework for modelling genome expression and regulation. Starting with a philosophical foundation, causation is identified as the principle of explanation of change in the realm of matter. Causation is, therefore, a relationship, not between components, but between changes of states of a system. We subsequently view genome expression (formerly known as 'gene expression') as a dynamic process and model aspects of it as dynamic systems using methodologies developed within the areas of systems and control theory. We begin with the possibly most abstract but general formulation in the setting of category theory. The class of models realised are state-space models, input--output models, autoregressive models or automata. We find that a number of proposed 'gene network' models are, therefore, included in the framework presented here. The conceptual framework that integrates all of these models defines a dynamic system as a family of expression profiles. It becomes apparent that the concept of a 'gene' is less appropriate when considering mathematical models of genome expression and regulation. The main claim of this paper is that we should treat (model) the organisation and regulation of genetic pathways as what they are: dynamic systems. Microarray technology allows us to generate large sets of time series data and is, therefore, discussed with regard to its use in mathematical modelling of gene expression and regulation.     

Dynamic modelling and analysis of biochemical networks: mechanism-based models and model-based experiments

Systems biology applies quantitative, mechanistic modelling to study genetic networks, signal transduction pathways and metabolic networks. Mathematical models of biochemical networks can look very different. An important reason is that the purpose and application of a model are essential for the selection of the best mathematical framework. Fundamental aspects of selecting an appropriate modelling framework and a strategy for model building are discussed. Concepts and methods from system and control theory provide a sound basis for the further development of improved and dedicated computational tools for systems biology. Identification of the network components and rate constants that are most critical to the output behaviour of the system is one of the major problems raised in systems biology. Current approaches and methods of parameter sensitivity analysis and parameter estimation are reviewed. It is shown how these methods can be applied in the design of model-based experiments which iteratively yield models that are decreasingly wrong and increasingly gain predictive power.     

“Essentially,all models are wrong,but some are useful”<Emphasis Type="Italic">—</Emphasis>a cross-disciplinary agenda for building useful models in cell biology and biophysics

Intuition alone often fails to decipher the mechanisms underlying the experimental data in Cell Biology and Biophysics, and mathematical modeling has become a critical tool in these fields. However, mathematical modeling is not as widespread as it could be, because experimentalists and modelers often have difficulties communicating with each other, and are not always on the same page about what a model can or should achieve. Here, we present a framework to develop models that increase the understanding of the mechanisms underlying one’s favorite biological system. Development of the most insightful models starts with identifying a good biological question in light of what is known and unknown in the field, and determining the proper level of details that are sufficient to address this question. The model should aim not only to explain already available data, but also to make predictions that can be experimentally tested. We hope that both experimentalists and modelers who are driven by mechanistic questions will find these guidelines useful to develop models with maximum impact in their field.     

Stochastic Models of Lymphocyte Proliferation and Death

Quantitative understanding of the kinetics of lymphocyte proliferation and death upon activation with an antigen is crucial for elucidating factors determining the magnitude, duration and efficiency of the immune response. Recent advances in quantitative experimental techniques, in particular intracellular labeling and multi-channel flow cytometry, allow one to measure the population structure of proliferating and dying lymphocytes for several generations with high precision. These new experimental techniques require novel quantitative methods of analysis. We review several recent mathematical approaches used to describe and analyze cell proliferation data. Using a rigorous mathematical framework, we show that two commonly used models that are based on the theories of age-structured cell populations and of branching processes, are mathematically identical. We provide several simple analytical solutions for a model in which the distribution of inter-division times follows a gamma distribution and show that this model can fit both simulated and experimental data. We also show that the estimates of some critical kinetic parameters, such as the average inter-division time, obtained by fitting models to data may depend on the assumed distribution of inter-division times, highlighting the challenges in quantitative understanding of cell kinetics.     

A modelling framework to simulate foliar fungal epidemics using functional–structural plant models

Background and Aims

Sustainable agriculture requires the identification of new, environmentally responsible strategies of crop protection. Modelling of pathosystems can allow a better understanding of the major interactions inside these dynamic systems and may lead to innovative protection strategies. In particular, functional–structural plant models (FSPMs) have been identified as a means to optimize the use of architecture-related traits. A current limitation lies in the inherent complexity of this type of modelling, and thus the purpose of this paper is to provide a framework to both extend and simplify the modelling of pathosystems using FSPMs.

Methods

Different entities and interactions occurring in pathosystems were formalized in a conceptual model. A framework based on these concepts was then implemented within the open-source OpenAlea modelling platform, using the platform''s general strategy of modelling plant–environment interactions and extending it to handle plant interactions with pathogens. New developments include a generic data structure for representing lesions and dispersal units, and a series of generic protocols to communicate with objects representing the canopy and its microenvironment in the OpenAlea platform. Another development is the addition of a library of elementary models involved in pathosystem modelling. Several plant and physical models are already available in OpenAlea and can be combined in models of pathosystems using this framework approach.

Key Results

Two contrasting pathosystems are implemented using the framework and illustrate its generic utility. Simulations demonstrate the framework''s ability to simulate multiscaled interactions within pathosystems, and also show that models are modular components within the framework and can be extended. This is illustrated by testing the impact of canopy architectural traits on fungal dispersal.

Conclusions

This study provides a framework for modelling a large number of pathosystems using FSPMs. This structure can accommodate both previously developed models for individual aspects of pathosystems and new ones. Complex models are deconstructed into separate ‘knowledge sources’ originating from different specialist areas of expertise and these can be shared and reassembled into multidisciplinary models. The framework thus provides a beneficial tool for a potential diverse and dynamic research community.     

Review: To be or not to be an identifiable model. Is this a relevant question in animal science modelling?

What is a good (useful) mathematical model in animal science? For models constructed for prediction purposes, the question of model adequacy (usefulness) has been traditionally tackled by statistical analysis applied to observed experimental data relative to model-predicted variables. However, little attention has been paid to analytic tools that exploit the mathematical properties of the model equations. For example, in the context of model calibration, before attempting a numerical estimation of the model parameters, we might want to know if we have any chance of success in estimating a unique best value of the model parameters from available measurements. This question of uniqueness is referred to as structural identifiability; a mathematical property that is defined on the sole basis of the model structure within a hypothetical ideal experiment determined by a setting of model inputs (stimuli) and observable variables (measurements). Structural identifiability analysis applied to dynamic models described by ordinary differential equations (ODEs) is a common practice in control engineering and system identification. This analysis demands mathematical technicalities that are beyond the academic background of animal science, which might explain the lack of pervasiveness of identifiability analysis in animal science modelling. To fill this gap, in this paper we address the analysis of structural identifiability from a practitioner perspective by capitalizing on the use of dedicated software tools. Our objectives are (i) to provide a comprehensive explanation of the structural identifiability notion for the community of animal science modelling, (ii) to assess the relevance of identifiability analysis in animal science modelling and (iii) to motivate the community to use identifiability analysis in the modelling practice (when the identifiability question is relevant). We focus our study on ODE models. By using illustrative examples that include published mathematical models describing lactation in cattle, we show how structural identifiability analysis can contribute to advancing mathematical modelling in animal science towards the production of useful models and, moreover, highly informative experiments via optimal experiment design. Rather than attempting to impose a systematic identifiability analysis to the modelling community during model developments, we wish to open a window towards the discovery of a powerful tool for model construction and experiment design.