Creating Larger and Better Connected Protected Areas Enhances the Persistence of Big Game Species in the Maputaland-Pondoland-Albany Biodiversity Hotspot

The ideal conservation planning approach would enable decision-makers to use population viability analysis to assess the effects of management strategies and threats on all species at the landscape level. However, the lack of high-quality data derived from long-term studies, and uncertainty in model parameters and/or structure, often limit the use of population models to only a few species of conservation concern. We used spatially explicit metapopulation models in conjunction with multi-criteria decision analysis to assess how species-specific threats and management interventions would affect the persistence of African wild dog, black rhino, cheetah, elephant, leopard and lion, under six reserve scenarios, thereby providing the basis for deciding on a best course of conservation action in the South African province of KwaZulu-Natal, which forms the central component of the Maputaland-Pondoland-Albany biodiversity hotspot. Overall, the results suggest that current strategies of managing populations within individual, small, fenced reserves are unlikely to enhance metapopulation persistence should catastrophic events affect populations in the future. Creating larger and better-connected protected areas would ensure that threats can be better mitigated in the future for both African wild dog and leopard, which can disperse naturally, and black rhino, cheetah, elephant, and lion, which are constrained by electric fences but can be managed using translocation. The importance of both size and connectivity should inform endangered megafauna conservation and management, especially in the context of restoration efforts in increasingly human-dominated landscapes.     

Net Effects of Ecotourism on Threatened Species Survival

Many threatened species rely on ecotourism for conservation funding, but simultaneously suffer direct ecological impacts from ecotourism. For a range of IUCN-Redlisted terrestrial and marine bird and mammal species worldwide, we use population viability analyses to calculate the net effects of ecotourism on expected time to extinction, in the presence of other anthropogenic threats such as poaching, primary industries and habitat loss. Species for which these calculations are currently possible, for one or more subpopulations, include: orangutan, hoolock gibbon, golden lion tamarin, cheetah, African wild dog, New Zealand sealion, great green macaw, Egyptian vulture, and African penguin. For some but not all of these species, tourism can extend expected survival time, i.e., benefits outweigh impacts. Precise outcomes depend strongly on population parameters and starting sizes, predation, and ecotourism scale and mechanisms. Tourism does not currently overcome other major conservation threats associated with natural resource extractive industries. Similar calculations for other threatened species are currently limited by lack of basic population data.     

Serosurvey of viral infections in free-ranging Namibian cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus)

Cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus) in captivity have unusually high morbidity and mortality from infectious diseases, a trait that could be an outcome of population homogeneity or the immunomodulating effects of chronic stress. Free-ranging Namibian cheetahs share ancestry with captive cheetahs, but their susceptibility to infectious diseases has not been investigated. The largest remaining population of free-ranging cheetahs resides on Namibian farmlands, where they share habitat with domestic dogs and cats known to carry viruses that affect cheetah health. To assess the extent to which free-ranging cheetahs are exposed to feline and canine viruses, sera from 81 free-ranging cheetahs sampled between 1992 and 1998 were evaluated for antibodies against canine distemper virus (CDV), feline coronavirus (feline infectious peritonitis virus; FCoV/ FIPV), feline herpesvirus 1 (FHV1), feline panleukopenia virus (FPV), feline immunodeficiency virus (FIV), and feline calicivirus (FCV) and for feline leukemia virus (FeLV) antigens. Antibodies against CDV, FCoV/FIPV, FHV1, FPV, and FCV were detected in 24, 29, 12, 48, and 65% of the free-ranging population, respectively, although no evidence of viral disease was present in any animal at the time of sample collection. Neither FIV antibodies nor FeLV antigens were present in any free-ranging cheetah tested. Temporal variation in FCoV/FIPV seroprevalence during the study period suggested that this virus is not endemic in the free-ranging population. Antibodies against CDV were detected in cheetahs of all ages sampled between 1995 and 1998, suggesting the occurrence of an epidemic in Namibia during the time when CDV swept through other parts of sub-Saharan Africa. This evidence in free-ranging Namibian cheetahs of exposure to viruses that cause severe disease in captive cheetahs should direct future guidelines for translocations, including quarantine of seropositive cheetahs and preventing contact between cheetahs and domestic pets.     

Trapping Elusive Cats: Using Intensive Camera Trapping to Estimate the Density of a Rare African Felid

Camera trapping studies have become increasingly popular to produce population estimates of individually recognisable mammals. Yet, monitoring techniques for rare species which occur at extremely low densities are lacking. Additionally, species which have unpredictable movements may make obtaining reliable population estimates challenging due to low detectability. Our study explores the effectiveness of intensive camera trapping for estimating cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) numbers. Using both a more traditional, systematic grid approach and pre-determined, targeted sites for camera placement, the cheetah population of the Northern Tuli Game Reserve, Botswana was sampled between December 2012 and October 2013. Placement of cameras in a regular grid pattern yielded very few (n = 9) cheetah images and these were insufficient to estimate cheetah density. However, pre-selected cheetah scent-marking posts provided 53 images of seven adult cheetahs (0.61 ± 0.18 cheetahs/100km²). While increasing the length of the camera trapping survey from 90 to 130 days increased the total number of cheetah images obtained (from 53 to 200), no new individuals were recorded and the estimated population density remained stable. Thus, our study demonstrates that targeted camera placement (irrespective of survey duration) is necessary for reliably assessing cheetah densities where populations are naturally very low or dominated by transient individuals. Significantly our approach can easily be applied to other rare predator species.     

Potential Applications of Population Viability Analysis to Risk Assessment for Invasive Species

Population viability analysis, the use of ecological models to assess a population's risk of extinction, plays an important role in contemporary conservation biology. The premise of this review is that models, concepts, and data analyses that yield results on extinction risk of threatened and endangered species can also tell us about establishment risks of potentially invasive species. I briefly review important results for simple unstructured models, demographic models, and spatial models, giving examples of the application of each type of model to invasive species, and general conclusions about the applicability of each type of model to risk analysis for invasive species. The examples illustrate a portion of the range of potential applications of such models to invasive species, and some of the types of predictions that they can provide. They also highlight some of the limitations of such models. Finally, I present several conjectures and open research questions concerning the application of population viability analyses to risk analysis and control of invasive species.     

RISK OF EXTIRPATION OF STELLER SEA LIONS IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS: A POPULATION VIABILITY ANALYSIS BASED ON ALTERNATIVE HYPOTHESES FOR WHY SEA LIONS DECLINED IN WESTERN ALASKA

We estimated the risk that the Steller sea lion will be extirpated in western Alaska using a population viability analysis (PVA) that combined simulations with statistically fitted models of historical population dynamics. Our analysis considered the roles that density‐dependent and density‐independent factors may have played in the past, and how they might influence future population dynamics. It also established functional relationships between population size, population growth rate and the risk of extinction under alternative hypotheses about population regulation and environmental variability. These functional relationships can be used to develop recovery criteria and guide research and management decisions. Life table parameters (e.g., birth and survival rates) operating during the population decline (1978–2002) were estimated by fitting simple age‐structured models to time‐series of pup and non‐pup counts from 33 rookeries (subpopulations). The PVA was carried out by projecting all 33 subpopulations into the future using these estimated site‐specific life tables (with associated uncertainties) and different assumptions about carrying capacities and the presence or absence of density‐dependent population regulation. Results suggest that the overall predicted risk of extirpation of Steller sea lions as a species in western Alaska was low in the next 100 yr under all scenarios explored. However, most subpopulations of Steller sea lions had high probabilities of going extinct within the next 100 yr if trends observed during the 1990s were to continue. Two clusters of contiguous subpopulations occurring in the Unimak Pass area in the western Gulf of Alaska/eastern Aleutian Islands and the Seguam–Adak region in the central Aleutian Islands had relatively lower risks of extinction. Risks of extinction for a number of subpopulations in the Gulf of Alaska were reduced if the increases observed since the late 1990s continue into the future. The risks of subpopulations going extinct were small when density‐dependent compensation in birth and survival rates was assumed, even when random stochasticity in these vital rates was introduced.     

Rabies Virus and Canine Distemper Virus in Wild and Domestic Carnivores in Northern Kenya: Are Domestic Dogs the Reservoir?

Rabies virus (RV) and canine distemper virus (CDV) can cause significant mortality in wild carnivore populations, and RV threatens human lives. We investigated serological patterns of exposure to CDV and RV in domestic dogs (Canis familiaris), African wild dogs (Lycaon pictus), black-backed jackals (Canis mesomelas), spotted hyenas (Crocuta crocuta), striped hyenas (Hyaena hyaena) and African lions (Panthera leo), over a 10-year period, in a Kenyan rangeland to assess the role domestic dogs may play in the transmission dynamics of these two important canid pathogens. Observed patterns of RV exposure suggested that repeated introduction, rather than maintenance, occurred in the wild carnivore species studied. However, RV appeared to have been maintained in domestic dogs: exposure was more likely in domestic dogs than in the wild carnivores; was detected consistently over time without variation among years; and was detected in juveniles (≤1-year-old) as well as adults (>1-year-old). We conclude that this domestic dog population could be a RV reservoir. By contrast, the absence of evidence of CDV exposure for each carnivore species examined in the study area, for specific years, suggested repeated introduction, rather than maintenance, and that CDV may require a larger reservoir population than RV. This reservoir could be a larger domestic dog population; another wildlife species; or a “metareservoir” consisting of multiple interconnected carnivore populations. Our findings suggest that RV risks to people and wild carnivores might be controlled by domestic dog vaccination, but that CDV control, if required, would need to target the species of concern.     

Learning from the past to prepare for the future: felids face continued threat from declining prey

Many contemporary species of large‐felids (≥ 15 kg) feed upon prey that are endangered, raising concern that prey population declines (defaunation) will further threaten felids. We assess the threat that defaunation presents by investigating a late Quaternary (LQ), ‘present‐natural’ counterfactual scenario. Our present‐natural counterfactual is based on predicted ranges of mammals today in the absence of any impacts of modern humans Homo sapiens through time. Data from our present‐natural counterfactual are used to understand firstly how megafauna extinction has impacted felid communities to date and secondly to quantify the threat to large‐felid communities posed by further declines in prey richness in the future. Our purpose is to identify imminent risks to biodiversity conservation and their cascading consequences and, specifically, to indicate the importance of preserving prey diversity. We pursue two lines of enquiry; first, we test whether the loss of prey species richness is a potential cause of large‐felid extinction and range loss. Second, we explore what can be learnt from the large‐scale large‐mammal LQ losses, particularly in the Americas and Europe, to assess the threat any further decline in prey species presents to large‐felids today, particularly in Africa and Asia. Large‐felid species richness was considerably greater under our present‐natural counterfactual scenario compared to the current reality. In total, 86% of cells recorded at least one additional felid species in our present‐natural counterfactual, and up to 4–5 more large‐felid species in 10% of the cells. A significant positive correlation was recorded between the number of prey species lost and the number of large‐felid species lost from a cell. Extant felids most at risk include lion and Sunda clouded leopard, as well as leopard and cheetah in parts of their range. Our results draw attention to the continuation of a trend of megafauna decline that began with the emergence of hominins in the Pleistocene.     

Extinctions in competitive communities forced by coloured environmental variation

Understanding the relationships between environmental fluctuations, population dynamics and species interactions in natural communities is of vital theoretical and practical importance. This knowledge is essential in assessing extinction risks in communities that are, for example, pressed by changing environmental conditions and increasing exploitation. We developed a model of density dependent population renewal, in a Lotka–Volterra competitive community context, to explore the significance of interspecific interactions, demographic stochasticity, population growth rate and species abundance on extinction risk in populations under various autocorrelation (colour) regimes of environmental forcing. These factors were evaluated in two cases, where either a single species or the whole community was affected by the external forcing. Species' susceptibility to environmental noise with different autocorrelation structure depended markedly on population dynamics, species' position in the abundance hierarchy and how similarly community members responded to external forcing. We also found interactions between demographic stochasticity and environmental noise leading to a reversal in extinction probabilities from under- to overcompensatory dynamics. We compare our results with studies of single species populations and contrast possible mechanisms leading to extinctions. Our findings indicate that abundance rank, the form of population dynamics, and the colour of environmental variation interact in affecting species extinction risk. These interactions are further modified by interspecific interactions within competitive communities as the interactions filter and modulate the environmental noise.     

Prey preferences of the cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) (Felidae: Carnivora): morphological limitations or the need to capture rapidly consumable prey before kleptoparasites arrive?

As a charismatic carnivore that is vulnerable to extinction, many studies have been conducted on predation by the cheetah Acinonyx jubatus . Cheetah are generally considered to capture medium-sized prey; however, which species are actually preferred and why has yet to be addressed. We used data from 21 published and two unpublished studies from six countries throughout the distribution of the cheetah to determine which prey species were preferred and which were avoided using Jacobs' index. The mean Jacobs' index value for each prey species was used as the dependent variable in multiple regression, with prey abundance and prey body mass as predictive variables. Cheetah prefer to kill and actually kill the most available prey present at a site within a body mass range of 23–56 kg with a peak (mode) at 36 kg. Blesbok, impala, Thomson's and Grant's gazelles, and springbok are significantly preferred, whereas prey outside this range are generally avoided. The morphological adaptations of the cheetah appear to have evolved to capture medium-sized prey that can be subdued with minimal risk of injury. Coincidentally, these species can be consumed rapidly before kleptoparasites arrive. These results are discussed through the premise of optimality theory whereby decisions made by the predator maximize the net energetic benefits of foraging. Information is also presented that allows conservation managers to determine which prey species should be in adequate numbers at cheetah reintroduction sites to support a cheetah population. Conversely, these results will illustrate which potential prey species of local conservation concern should be monitored for impact from cheetahs as several species are likely to be preyed upon more frequently than others.     

Harvest reserves reduce extinction risk in an experimental microcosm

Overharvesting by humans threatens a substantial fraction of endangered species. Reserves have recently received enormous attention as a means of better conserving harvested resources, despite limited empirical evidence of their efficacy. We used manipulated microcosms to test whether reserves reduce extinction risk in mobile populations of harvested Tetrahymena thermophila , a ciliate. Here we show that patterns of population distribution inside and outside reserves can be accurately predicted on the basis of simple models of diffusion coupled with logistic controls on local population growth. No extinctions occurred in eight experimental trials with reserves, whereas extinction occurred in seven of eight trials without reserves, as predicted by population viability models based on stochastic population processes. These results suggest that marine reserves may be an effective means of improving long-term viability in heavily harvested fish species.     

The functional consequences of random vs. ordered species extinctions

Recent work suggests that the effect of extinction on ecosystem function depends on whether or not species have identical extinction risks. Here, we use a simple model of community dynamics to predict how the functional consequences of random and non‐random extinction may differ. The model suggests that when resource partitioning or facilitation structures communities, the functional consequences of non‐random extinction depend on the covariance between species traits and cumulative extinction risks, and the compensatory responses among survivors. Strong competition increases the difference between random and ordered extinctions, but mutualisms reduce the difference. When diversity affects function via a sampling effect, the difference between random and ordered extinction depends on the covariance between species traits and the change in the probability of being the competitive dominant caused by ordered extinction. These findings show how random assembly experiments can be combined with information about species traits to make qualitative predictions about the functional consequences of various extinction scenarios.     

Population collapse to extinction: the catastrophic combination of parasitism and Allee effect

Infectious diseases are responsible for the extinction of a number of species. In conventional epidemic models, the transition from endemic population persistence to extirpation takes place gradually. However, if host demographics exhibits a strong Allee effect (AE) (population decline at low densities), extinction can occur abruptly in a catastrophic population crash. This might explain why species suddenly disappear even when they used to persist at high endemic population levels. Mathematically, the tipping point towards population collapse is associated with a saddle-node bifurcation. The underlying mechanism is the simultaneous population size depression and the increase of the extinction threshold due to parasite pathogenicity and Allee effect. Since highly pathogenic parasites cause their own extinction but not that of their host, there can be another saddle-node bifurcation with the re-emergence of two endemic equilibria. The implications for control interventions are discussed, suggesting that effective management may be possible for ?(0)?1.     

Population viability analysis of New Zealand sea lions, Auckland Islands, New Zealand’s sub-Antarctics: assessing relative impacts and uncertainty

A common issue faced in wildlife management is how to assess the uncertainty of potential impacts on the viability of a species or population. The pup production of New Zealand (NZ) sea lions (Phocarctos hookeri) has declined 50% in the last 12?years at their main breeding area, the Auckland Islands. The two major known atypical impacts on NZ sea lions are as follows: (1) the direct mortality as bycatch of trawling and (2) bacterial epizootics, which can affect reproduction and mortality. Both of these impacts include high levels of uncertainty, with fisheries data being variable due to percentage observer coverage and the effect of sea lion exclusion devises, while the timing and severity of bacterial epizootics are not predictable. In this paper, an age-structured model of the NZ sea lion population at the Auckland Islands was built to examine the predicted effects of fisheries mortality and catastrophes (bacterial epizootics), both separately and then combined, on population viability over a 100-year period using the VORTEX population viability analysis programme. These models are then compared against 15?years of empirical field data to determine the actual level of impacts being observed. Model results indicate that although naturally occurring epizootics reduce the growth rate of the population, it does not cause a decline in the Auckland Island population. However, sustained fisheries bycatch at current estimated levels, particularly considering its potential impact on adult female survival, could result in a population decline and possible functional extinction over the modelled time period.     

Estimating the Potential Impact of Canine Distemper Virus on the Amur Tiger Population (Panthera tigris altaica) in Russia

Lethal infections with canine distemper virus (CDV) have recently been diagnosed in Amur tigers (Panthera tigris altaica), but long-term implications for the population are unknown. This study evaluates the potential impact of CDV on a key tiger population in Sikhote-Alin Biosphere Zapovednik (SABZ), and assesses how CDV might influence the extinction potential of other tiger populations of varying sizes. An individual-based stochastic, SIRD (susceptible-infected-recovered/dead) model was used to simulate infection through predation of infected domestic dogs, and/or wild carnivores, and direct tiger-to-tiger transmission. CDV prevalence and effective contact based on published and observed data was used to define plausible low- and high-risk infection scenarios. CDV infection increased the 50-year extinction probability of tigers in SABZ by 6.3% to 55.8% compared to a control population, depending on risk scenario. The most significant factors influencing model outcome were virus prevalence in the reservoir population(s) and its effective contact rate with tigers. Adjustment of the mortality rate had a proportional impact, while inclusion of epizootic infection waves had negligible additional impact. Small populations were found to be disproportionately vulnerable to extinction through CDV infection. The 50-year extinction risk in populations consisting of 25 individuals was 1.65 times greater when CDV was present than that of control populations. The effects of density dependence do not protect an endangered population from the impacts of a multi-host pathogen, such as CDV, where they coexist with an abundant reservoir presenting a persistent threat. Awareness of CDV is a critical component of a successful tiger conservation management policy.     

Assessing Extinction Risk in Small Metapopulations of Golden‐headed Lion Tamarins (Leontopithecus chrysomelas) in Bahia State,Brazil

Golden‐headed lion tamarins (GHLTs; Leontopithecus chrysomelas) are endangered primates endemic to the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, where loss of forest and its connectivity threaten species survival. Understanding the role of habitat availability and configuration on population declines is critical for guiding proactive conservation for this, and other, endangered species. We conducted population viability analysis to assess vulnerability of ten GHLT metapopulations to habitat loss and small population size. Seven metapopulations had a low risk of extirpation (or local extinction) over the next 100 years assuming no further forest loss, and even small populations could persist with immediate protection. Three metapopulations had a moderate/high risk of extirpation, suggesting extinction debt may be evident in parts of the species’ range. When deforestation was assumed to continue at current rates, extirpation risk significantly increased while abundance and genetic diversity decreased for all metapopulations. Extirpation risk was significantly negatively correlated with the size of the largest patch available to metapopulations, underscoring the importance of large habitat patches for species persistence. Finally, we conducted sensitivity analysis using logistic regression, and our results showed that local extinction risk was sensitive to percentage of females breeding, adult female mortality, and dispersal rate and survival; conservation or research programs that target these aspects of the species’ biology/ecology could have a disproportionately important impact on species survival. We stress that efforts to protect populations and tracts of habitat of sufficient size throughout the species’ distribution will be important in the near‐term to protect the species from continuing decline and extinction.     

Partitioning of space, habitat, and timing of activity by large felids in an enclosed South African system

Reintroductions of large carnivores into enclosed reserves that confine movements may fail due to intensive intra-guild interspecific conflict. To assess conflict potential, in winter 2006 we used direct observations aided by radio-tracking to focally monitor continuously one female cheetah with cub (Acinonyx jubatus), a female leopard (Panthera pardus), and a lion pride (Panthera leo) at Shamwari Private Game Reserve, South Africa. Home ranges of all individuals/social groups overlapped, whereas core areas had little overlap. The cheetah core area had no overlap with the lion core area, with lion avoidance also recorded for a radio-tracked single female cheetah and a male leopard. The female cheetah with cub selected thicket habitat which was avoided by lions, the latter preferring naturally revegetated areas that were also selected by the female leopard. Lions also selected low elevations, which were avoided by the smaller felids. Habitat preference differences occurred at study area and home range levels, suggesting a broad-scale feline avoidance strategy to minimize intra-guild conflict. In addition, the focally monitored cheetah and leopard were often stationary when the lions were active, especially during nocturnal lion hunts. These intra-guild mechanisms of reintroduced carnivore coexistence should be tested with longer-term studies across enclosed systems of different sizes, and hosting varying carnivore guilds.     

Variation Thresholds for Extinction and Their Implications for Conservation Strategies

We examine the degree to which fitting simple dynamic models to time series of population counts can predict extinction probabilities. This is both an active branch of ecological theory and an important practical topic for resource managers. We introduce an approach that is complementary to recently developed techniques for estimating extinction risks (e.g., diffusion approximations) and, like them, requires only count data rather than the detailed ecological information available for traditional population viability analyses. Assuming process error, we use four different models of population growth to generate snapshots of population dynamics via time series of the lengths commonly available to ecologists. We then ask to what extent we can identify which of several broad classes of population dynamics is evident in the time series snapshot. Along the way, we introduce the idea of "variation thresholds," which are the maximum amount of process error that a population may withstand and still have a specified probability of surviving for a given length of time. We then show how these thresholds may be useful to both ecologists and resource managers, particularly when dealing with large numbers of poorly understood species, a common problem faced by those designing biodiversity reserves.     

Public communication, risk perception, and the viability of preventive vaccination against communicable diseases

Because of the nature of preventive vaccination programs, the viability of these public health interventions is particularly susceptible to public perceptions. This is because vaccination relies on a concept of 'herd immunity', achievement of which requires rational public behavior that can only be obtained through full and accurate communication about risks and benefits. This paper describes how irrational behavior that threatens the effectiveness of vaccination programs--both in crisis and non-crisis situations--can be tied to public perceptions created by media portrayals of health risks. I concentrate on childhood vaccination as an exemplar of 'non-crisis' preventive vaccination, and on the recent flu vaccine shortage as a 'crisis' situation. The paper concludes with an examination of the steps necessary to resolve these threats through better public communication.     

Climate extremes promote fatal co-infections during canine distemper epidemics in African lions

Extreme climatic conditions may alter historic host-pathogen relationships and synchronize the temporal and spatial convergence of multiple infectious agents, triggering epidemics with far greater mortality than those due to single pathogens. Here we present the first data to clearly illustrate how climate extremes can promote a complex interplay between epidemic and endemic pathogens that are normally tolerated in isolation, but with co-infection, result in catastrophic mortality. A 1994 canine distemper virus (CDV) epidemic in Serengeti lions (Panthera leo) coincided with the death of a third of the population, and a second high-mortality CDV epidemic struck the nearby Ngorongoro Crater lion population in 2001. The extent of adult mortalities was unusual for CDV and prompted an investigation into contributing factors. Serological analyses indicated that at least five "silent" CDV epidemics swept through the same two lion populations between 1976 and 2006 without clinical signs or measurable mortality, indicating that CDV was not necessarily fatal. Clinical and pathology findings suggested that hemoparsitism was a major contributing factor during fatal epidemics. Using quantitative real-time PCR, we measured the magnitude of hemoparasite infections in these populations over 22 years and demonstrated significantly higher levels of Babesia during the 1994 and 2001 epidemics. Babesia levels correlated with mortalities and extent of CDV exposure within prides. The common event preceding the two high mortality CDV outbreaks was extreme drought conditions with wide-spread herbivore die-offs, most notably of Cape buffalo (Syncerus caffer). As a consequence of high tick numbers after the resumption of rains and heavy tick infestations of starving buffalo, the lions were infected by unusually high numbers of Babesia, infections that were magnified by the immunosuppressive effects of coincident CDV, leading to unprecedented mortality. Such mass mortality events may become increasingly common if climate extremes disrupt historic stable relationships between co-existing pathogens and their susceptible hosts.