Local extinction of British farmland birds and the prediction of further loss

1.  The populations of many UK farmland birds declined between 1970 and 1990, frequently accompanied by contractions in breeding ranges. Ornithological atlas data, land use data and environmental data at the scale of 10-km squares were used to investigate the relationship between local extinctions and habitat suitability for six species, and to predict where future losses are most likely.
2.  For each species we tested the hypothesis that local extinctions were concentrated in environments that were inherently less suitable. We also tested the hypothesis that spatial patterns of loss were not independent between species due to their concurrence in the same habitats.
3.  Multivariate analyses (PCA) showed that areas where each species became extinct between 1970 and 1990 were more similar in land use type, climate and topography to areas where a species was never present than those where it was retained; local extinction was more likely in less suitable environments. Multiple logistic regression showed that for five of the six species the environmental gradient best predicting presence or absence in 1970 was also that best predicting loss between 1970 and 1990. For the six species studied, local extinctions were least likely in lowland arable areas.
4.  For any pair of species, local extinctions were more frequent outside the area of overlap of the two species' ranges than inside. Within the area of overlap, species tended to be lost from the same squares. For each species, likelihood of local extinction declined with increasing number of the other five species present.
5.  We used model parameters to map the probability of future local extinctions of the six species considered, allowing the identification of key areas for conservation management at a spatial scale appropriate to agri-economic incentives.     

Interspecific abundance-range size relationships: range position and phylogeny

A number of mechanisms have been proposed to explain the widely observed positive interspecific relationship between local abundance and extent of geographic distribution in animals Here, we use data on British birds to assess two of these hypotheses that the relationship results from the relative position of a study area with respect to the geographic ranges of the species which occur there, and that the relationship results from a simple difference between taxonomic groups, rather than any general tendency for more abundant species to have larger range sizes We find support for neither hypothesis Phylogenetically controlled comparative analyses reveal that the positive abundance-range size relationship is consistently found within taxa, even when abundance and range size are calculated at a variety of spatial and temporal scales Analyses both across species and within taxa show that bird species for which Britain is near to the centre of their distribution in Europe tend to have larger British range sizes and higher abundances than do species where Britain is close to the edge of their range in Europe However, these relationships do not cause that between abundance and range size, because this latter relationship persists within different range position categories Whether a species is near the centre or edge of its geographic range in Britain may affect its position on the abundance-range size relationship, but does not produce the relationship Range position in Britain does, however, seem to be related to the magnitude of temporal changes in the range sizes of British birds There is some evidence to suggest that species for which Britain is nearer to their European range centre have shown smaller changes in distribution over the period 1970–1990 than have species for which Britain is close to their European range edge     

Phylogenetic distributions of British birds of conservation concern

Recent studies suggest that species' life histories and ecology can be used to forecast future extinction risk. Threatened species often share similar traits such that if a trait predisposing a species to decline or extinction is evolutionarily conserved, then close relatives of threatened species are themselves likely to be at risk. The phylogenetic distribution of current threat has been argued to provide insight into the species that could be threatened in the future when trait data are not available. Conservation criteria are typically based on multiple indices that capture different symptoms of threat including population trends and range contraction. However, there is no reason to assume consistent phylogenetic distributions of different symptoms. I construct a molecular phylogeny of 249 species of British birds (more than 93% of the breeding and wintering species) and use this to show that the species that are threatened due to population declines are phylogenetically more closely related than expected by chance alone. However, species that are listed for other reasons, including range contraction, are distributed randomly with respect to phylogeny. I suggest that while phylogeny can be informative with respect to identifying clades that are susceptible to some measures of extinction risk, such patterns are likely to be idiosyncratic with respect to symptom and taxa.     

Living on the edge: British and Irish woodland birds in a European context

This paper reviews broad geographical patterns in the species composition of breeding woodland bird communities from Ireland to eastern Europe and outlines how processes affecting woodland birds in Britain and Ireland may differ from those operating in mainland Europe. Bird communities in British and Irish woodlands consist of a subset of the species occurring within European forests at similar latitudes. The occurrence of virtually all groups of forest birds is lower in Britain, and strikingly lower in Ireland, than in other temperate areas of mainland Europe. This phenomenon appears to form part of a west–east gradient in species diversity and is probably not just a consequence of insularity. Across this gradient there appears to be broad geographical constancy in the types (taxonomic, ecological and life-history groups) of species present. There is considerable spatial variation in habitat use by forest species within Europe. Some species in Britain probably use habitats in different ways to elsewhere for reasons related to competition, predation and historical adaptation to landscape change. Several species appear to reach the limits of their geographical ranges within Britain (i.e. in the absence of physical barriers). We suggest that range contraction of one of these species, the Common Nightingale Luscinia megarhynchos , in Britain may partially reflect redistribution into the highest quality areas in response to a wider population decline. It is argued that conclusions drawn from studies of forest birds in Britain do not necessarily apply in other regions and vice versa. There is a need for large-scale studies in Europe of the spatial variation in organization of forest bird assemblages, habitat use and the genetic structure of populations.     

Pattern and process in the geographical ranges of freshwater fishes

North American freshwater fishes were studied to determine whether they displayed the same relationships between log (geographical range size) and log (body size) and the same pattern of range shape as found among North American birds and mammals. The forces that produce these patterns were also investigated. The log (geographical range size) : log (body size) relationship was analysed for 121 North American freshwater fish species. Thirty‐two imperilled species were compared with 89 non‐imperilled species to determine if the overall relationship could result from differential extinction. Range geometries were analysed, within and among habitat guilds, to determine if general patterns could be detected. The log (geographical range size) : log (body size) pattern among freshwater fish species was triangular and qualitatively similar to that found for North American birds and mammals. The results suggest that below a minimum geographical range, the likelihood of extinction increases dramatically for freshwater fishes and that this minimum range size increases with body size. The pattern of fish species’ range shapes differs from that found for other North American vertebrate taxa because, on average, fish possess much smaller ranges than terrestrial species and most fish species’ geographical ranges extend further on a north–south axis than on an east–west axis. The log (geographical range size) : log (body size) pattern reveals that fish species’ geographical ranges are more constrained than those of terrestrial species. The triangular relationship may be caused by differential extinction of species with large bodies and small geographical ranges as well as higher speciation rates of small‐bodied fish. The restricted geographical ranges of freshwater fishes gives them much in common with terrestrial species on oceanic islands. Range shape patterns within habitat guilds reflect guild‐specific historical and current ecological forces. The overall pattern of range shapes emerges from the combination of ecologically different subunits.     

Predictors of contraction and expansion of area of occupancy for British birds

Geographical range dynamics are driven by the joint effects of abiotic factors, human ecosystem modifications, biotic interactions and the intrinsic organismal responses to these. However, the relative contribution of each component remains largely unknown. Here, we compare the contribution of life-history attributes, broad-scale gradients in climate and geographical context of species’ historical ranges, as predictors of recent changes in area of occupancy for 116 terrestrial British breeding birds (74 contractors, 42 expanders) between the early 1970s and late 1990s. Regional threat classifications demonstrated that the species of highest conservation concern showed both the largest contractions and the smallest expansions. Species responded differently to climate depending on geographical distribution—northern species changed their area of occupancy (expansion or contraction) more in warmer and drier regions, whereas southern species changed more in colder and wetter environments. Species with slow life history (larger body size) tended to have a lower probability of changing their area of occupancy than species with faster life history, whereas species with greater natal dispersal capacity resisted contraction and, counterintuitively, expansion. Higher geographical fragmentation of species'' range also increased expansion probability, possibly indicating a release from a previously limiting condition, for example through agricultural abandonment since the 1970s. After accounting statistically for the complexity and nonlinearity of the data, our results demonstrate two key aspects of changing area of occupancy for British birds: (i) climate is the dominant driver of change, but direction of effect depends on geographical context, and (ii) all of our predictors generally had a similar effect regardless of the direction of the change (contraction versus expansion). Although we caution applying results from Britain''s highly modified and well-studied bird community to other biogeographic regions, our results do indicate that a species'' propensity to change area of occupancy over decadal scales can be explained partially by a combination of simple allometric predictors of life-history pace, average climate conditions and geographical context.     

Ecological correlates of local extinction and colonisation in the British ladybird beetles (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae)

Five main drivers of population declines have been identified: climate change, habitat degradation, invasive alien species (IAS), overexploitation and pollution. Each of these drivers interacts with the others, and also with the intrinsic traits of individual species, to determine species’ distribution and range dynamics. We explored the relative importance of life-history and resource-use traits, climate, habitat, and the IAS Harmonia axyridis in driving local extinction and colonisation dynamics across 25 ladybird species (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae).Species were classified as continually present, continually absent, extinct, or colonising in each of 4,642 1-km² grid squares. The spatial distribution of local extinction and colonisation events (in the grid squares) across all species’ ranges were related to ecological traits, overlap with H. axyridis, climate, and habitat factors within generalised linear models (GLMs). GLMs were also used to relate species’ traits, range characteristics, and niche overlap with H. axyridis to extinction and colonisation rates summarised at the species level. Bayesian model averaging was used to account for model uncertainty, and produce reduced sets of models which were well-supported by data. Species with a high degree of niche overlap with H. axyridis suffered higher extinction rates in both analyses, while at the spatial scale extinctions were more likely and colonisations less likely in areas with a high proportion of urban land cover. In the spatial analysis, polymorphic species with large range sizes were more likely to colonise and less likely to go extinct, and sunny grid squares were more likely to be colonised. Large, multivoltine species and rainy grid squares were less likely to colonise or be colonised. In conclusion for ladybirds, extinction and colonisation dynamics are influenced by several factors. The only factor that both increased the local extinction likelihood and reduced colonisation likelihood was urban land cover, while ecological overlap with H. axyridis greatly increased extinction rates. Continued spread of H. axyridis is likely to adversely affect native species and urban areas may be particularly vulnerable.     

How local extinction changes rarity: an example with Sonoran Desert fishes

That spatially rare species may be predisposed to extinction is a common tenet of ecology. However, the opposite side of the relationship – how extinction alters spatial rarity – remains little explored. We used an extensive biodiversity database to contrast patterns of spatial rarity of a biogeographic assemblage of native Sonoran fishes before and after an extensive, decades-long wave of extirpations. Focusing on 25 fish species native to the Lower Basin of the Colorado River, we analyzed two key aspects of spatial rarity: 1) species range sizes (expressed as kilometers of stream reach occupied) and 2) species' co-occurrence patterns. Native fish species that were spatially rare historically suffered disproportionate losses in occurrences. However, endemic species did not suffer increased losses relative to non-endemic (but still native) species of comparable rarity. Species' geographic range sizes were concordant through time, with spatially rare species remaining rare after extensive extirpations relative to species that were historically more widespread. In contrast, extirpations greatly disrupted patterns of species co-occurrence on both local and regional scales. Over 50% of the species pairs that historically co-occurred (in the same 5  km reach) no longer co-occur anywhere in the Lower Basin, and species pairs that infrequently co-occurred in historic times suffered greater proportional losses than did more widely co-occurring pairs. Such changes in the relationship between spatial rarity and species richness deserve attention because they inhibit conservation planning (decreasing the efficiency of reserve design) and reduce interaction diversity altering opportunities for long-term co-evolutionary change.     

Trajectories to extinction: spatial dynamics of the contraction of geographical ranges

Aim We examined the range contraction of 309 declining species of animals and plants to determine if the contraction dynamics better matched predictions based on the demographic characteristics of historical populations (demographic hypothesis) or based on the contagion‐like spread of extinction forces (contagion hypothesis). Location Species included in the analysis came from all biogeographic regions. Methods We obtained range maps for 309 species from literature or through personal correspondence with authorities. Hypotheses were contrasted by examining the sequence of changes in the proportion (C) of the remnant range that fell within the central region of the historical range. Monte Carlo simulations and polynomial regressions were employed to examine changes in C during the process of range contraction. Results The results of the Monte Carlo simulations indicated that more species had observed range contractions consistent with the contagion hypothesis than expected by chance (z‐score = 2.922, P = 0.002). The Monte Carlo analysis also indicated that the number of species whose observed range contractions were consistent with the demographic hypothesis was no greater than expected by chance (z‐score = 0.337, P = 0.367). The results of the polynomial regression analysis for the two most common taxonomic groups (mammals and birds) and for all geographical regions (Australia, Africa, Eurasia, and North America) we examined also supported the contagion hypothesis. Main conclusions Most of the examined range contractions are consistent with the contagion hypothesis and that the most likely contagion is human related disturbance. These results have important implications for the conservation of endangered species.     

The downward spiral: eco‐evolutionary feedback loops lead to the emergence of ‘elastic’ ranges

In times of severe environmental changes and resulting shifts in the geographical distribution of animal and plant species it is crucial to unravel the mechanisms responsible for the dynamics of species’ ranges. Without such a mechanistic understanding, reliable projections of future species distributions are difficult to derive. Species’ ranges may be highly dynamic. One particularly interesting phenomenon is range contraction following a period of expansion, referred to as ‘elastic’ behaviour. It has been proposed that this phenomenon occurs in habitat gradients, which are characterized by a negative cline in selection for dispersal from the range core towards the margin, as one may find, for example, with increasing patch isolation. Using individual‐based simulations and numerical analyses we show that Allee effects are an important determinant of range border elasticity. If only intra‐specific processes are considered, Allee effects are even a necessary condition for ranges to exhibit elastic behavior. The eco‐evolutionary interplay between dispersal evolution, Allee effects and habitat isolation leads to lower colonization probability and higher local extinction risk after range expansions, which result in an increasing amount of marginal sink patches and consequently, range contraction. We also demonstrate that the nature of the gradient is crucial for range elasticity. Gradients which do not select for lower dispersal at the margin than in the core (especially gradients in patch size, demographic stochasticity and extinction rate) do not lead to elastic range behavior. Thus, we predict that range contractions are likely to occur after periods of expansion for species living in gradients of increasing patch isolation, which suffer from Allee effects.     

Macroecological patterns in British breeding birds: covariation of species'geographical range sizes at differing spatial scales

The availability of high quality data on the distribution and abundance of British birds at the national scale means that this fauna is the basis for a growing body of macroecological study. Nevertheless. questions remain about how representative of wider patterns the distributions and abundances of birds in Britain may be. Here, we use data on the British. European and global breeding distributions of British birds to show that species that are widespread in Britain also tend to be widespread across larger regions. These results hold for both residents and migrants separately, and when controlling for the phylogenetic related ness of species. Species with wide latitudinal spans in Europe also tend to have large British ranges, with the largest British ranges exhibited by species inhabiting mid-latitudes in Europe. These results demonstrate that the distributions of birds within Britain are not simply idiosyacratic. but do reflect aspects of their broader distributions.     

Macroecology and extinction risk correlates of frogs

Aim  Our aim was to test whether extinction risk of frog species could be predicted from their body size, fecundity or geographical range size. Because small geographical range size is a correlate of extinction risk in many taxa, we also tested hypotheses about correlates of range size in frogs.
Location  Global.
Methods  Using a large comparative data set ( n  = 527 species) compiled from the literature, we performed bivariate and multiple regressions through the origin of independent contrasts to test proposed macroecological patterns and correlates of extinction risk in frogs. We also created minimum adequate models to predict snout–vent length, clutch size, geographical range size and IUCN Red List status in frogs. Parallel non-phylogenetic analyses were also conducted. We verified the results of the phylogenetic analyses using gridded data accounting for spatial autocorrelation.
Results  The most threatened frog species tend to have small geographical ranges, although the relationship between range and extinction risk is not linear. In addition, tropical frogs with small clutches have the smallest ranges. Clutch size was strongly positively correlated with geographical range size ( r ² = 0.22) and body size ( r ² = 0.28).
Main conclusions  Our results suggest that body size and fecundity only affect extinction risk indirectly through their effect on geographical range size. Thus, although large frogs with small clutches tend to be endangered, there is no comparative evidence that this relationship is direct. If correct, this inference has consequences for conservation strategy: it would be inefficient to allocate conservation resources on the basis of low fecundity or large body size; instead it would be better to protect areas that contain many frog species with small geographical ranges.     

Racing against change: understanding dispersal and persistence to improve species' conservation prospects

Climate change is contributing to the widespread redistribution, and increasingly the loss, of species. Geographical range shifts among many species were detected rapidly after predictions of the potential importance of climate change were specified 35 years ago: species are shifting their ranges towards the poles and often to higher elevations in mountainous areas. Early tests of these predictions were largely qualitative, though extraordinarily rapid and broadly based, and statistical tests distinguishing between climate change and other global change drivers provided quantitative evidence that climate change had already begun to cause species’ geographical ranges to shift. I review two mechanisms enabling this process, namely development of approaches for accounting for dispersal that contributes to range expansion, and identification of factors that alter persistence and lead to range loss. Dispersal in the context of range expansion depends on an array of processes, like population growth rates in novel environments, rates of individual species movements to new locations, and how quickly areas of climatically tolerable habitat shift. These factors can be tied together in well-understood mathematical frameworks or modelled statistically, leading to better prediction of extinction risk as climate changes. Yet, species'' increasing exposures to novel climate conditions can exceed their tolerances and raise the likelihood of local extinction and consequent range losses. Such losses are the consequence of processes acting on individuals, driven by factors, such as the growing frequency and severity of extreme weather, that contribute local extinction risks for populations and species. Many mechanisms can govern how species respond to climate change, and rapid progress in global change research creates many opportunities to inform policy and improve conservation outcomes in the early stages of the sixth mass extinction.     

Spatial scale, abundance and the species-energy relationship in British birds

1. The spatial scale of analysis may influence the nature, strength and underlying drivers of macroecological patterns, one of the most frequently discussed of which is the relationship between species richness and environmental energy availability. 2. It has been suggested that species-energy relationships are hump-shaped at fine spatial grains and consistently positive at larger regional grains. The exact nature of this scale dependency is, however, the subject of much debate as relatively few studies have investigated species-energy relationships for the same assemblage across a range of spatial grains. Here, we contrast species-energy relationships for the British breeding avifauna at spatial grains of 1 km x 1 km, 2 km x 2 km and 10 km x 10 km plots, while maintaining a constant spatial extent. 3. Analyses were principally conducted using data on observed species richness. While survey work may fail to detect some species, observed species richness and that estimated using nonparametric techniques were strongly positively correlated with each other, and thus exhibit very similar spatial patterns. Moreover, the forms of species-energy relationships using observed and estimated species richness were statistically indistinguishable from each other. 4. Positive decelerating species-energy relationships arise at all three spatial grains. There is little evidence that the explanatory power of these relationships varies with spatial scale. However, ratios of regional (large-scale) to local (small-scale) species richness decrease with increasing energy availability, indicating that local richness responds to energy with a steeper gradient than does regional richness. Local assemblages thus sample a greater proportion of regional richness at higher energy levels, suggesting that spatial turnover of species richness is lower in high-energy regions. Similarly, a crude measure of temporal turnover, the ratio of cumulative species richness over a 4-year period to species richness in a single year, is lower in high-energy regions. These negative relationships between turnover and energy appear to be causal as both total and mean occupancy per species increases with energy. 5. While total density in 1 km x 1 km plots correlates positively with energy availability, such relationships are very weak for mean density per species. This suggests that the observed association between total abundance and species richness may not be mediated by population extinction rates, as predicted by the more individuals hypothesis. 6. The sampling mechanism suggests that species-energy relationships arise as high-energy areas support a greater number of individuals, and that random allocation of these individuals to local areas from a regional assemblage will generate species-energy relationships. While randomized local species-energy relationships are linear and positive, predicted richness is consistently greater than that observed. The mismatch between the observed and randomized species-energy relationships probably arises as a consequence of the aggregated nature of species distributions. The sampling mechanism, together with species spatial aggregation driven by limited habitat availability, may thus explain the species-energy relationship observed at this spatial scale.     

Geographical ecology and variation of plant-seed disperser interactions: southern Spanish junipers and frugivorous thrushes

Spatial and temporal predictability in the mutual selective pressures of plants and frugivorous birds is a prerequisite for coevolution to occur. I examine the interaction patterns of strongly frugivorous thrushes (Turdus spp.) and their major winter food plants (Juniperus spp., Cupressaceae) and how they vary in space and time. Spatial congruency, rarely considered in seed dispersal studies, is studied at three spatial scales: 1) the total species range; 2) regional distribution; and 3) local abundance and its variation between seasons. Southern Spanish frugivorous thrushes and junipers show very low congruence in distribution patterns at each of these scales. Most juniper species show geographic distributions that are nested within the geographic ranges of thrush species. Bird species showed greater habitat breadth values than plants and were found in a greater percentage of localities. The local bird abundance was strongly correlated across years and sites with the local availability of juniper cones. Cone production varied markedly between years, but the rankings for different species in different years were statistically concordant at mid-elevation and lowland sites. Both bird abundance and cone production showed greater temporal than spatial variability. Variation of cone productions at both temporal and spatial scales was greater than variability in bird abundance. Species with strong interactions of mutual dependence showed very low values of biogeographic congruence, caused by differences in geographic range and habitat specificity. This obviously limits the possibilities for pairwise, specific coevolution to occur. However, mutual effects of species groups are possible to the extent that the component species are ecologically interchangeable in their selective effects and other constraints on coevolution are not operating. The approach used here to examine the patterns of species interactions at different biogeographic scales might prove useful in comparative studies of plant-animal interactions.     

The conservation status of African vertebrates is unrelated to environmental and spatial patterns in their geographic ranges

Statistical predictions of the impact of climate change on biodiversity assume that the environmental and spatial characteristics of contemporary species’ distributions reflect the conditions needed for their continued and prolonged existence. Here we explore this assumption by testing whether a species’ threatened status is associated with the amount of variation in its distribution range attributable to environmental and spatial patterns. Using a variation partitioning approach, we decomposed variation in the distribution ranges of 4423 vertebrate species in sub-Saharan Africa into components attributable exclusively to environmental variables (E|S), exclusively to spatial variables (S|E) or to the collinearity between environmental and spatial variables (E∩S). We found that species’ threatened status was unrelated to E|S, S|E or E∩S variation components, but that unexplained variation was higher for species threatened with extinction. This suggests that spatio-environmental patterns in species’ ranges likely underestimate the overall extinction threat caused by climate change. We also found clear geographic patterns in the strength of E|S, S|E or E∩S that differed amongst biogeographical regions, but no component was over- or underrepresented in the present-day protected area network. While there may be benefits to tailoring protected area expansion to differences between biogeographical regions, this should aim to incorporate species-specific information wherever possible.     

Comparative influence of spatial scale on beta diversity within regional assemblages of birds and butterflies

Aim We examined whether variation in species composition of breeding birds and resident butterflies in the Great Basin of North America depended on sampling grain (the smallest resolvable unit of study) and on the relative proximity of sampling units across the landscape. We also compared patterns between the two taxonomic groups with reference to their life‐history characteristics. Location Data for our analyses were collected from 1996 to 2003 in three adjacent mountain ranges in the central Great Basin (Lander and Nye counties, Nevada, USA): the Shoshone Mountains, Toiyabe Range and Toquima Range. Methods Data on species composition for both taxonomic groups were collecting using standard inventory methods for birds and butterflies in temperate regions. Data were compiled at three sampling grains, sites (average 12 ha), canyons (average 74 ha) and mountain ranges. For each sampling grain in turn, we calculated similarity of species composition using the Jaccard index. First, we investigated whether mean similarity of species composition among the three ranges differed as a function of the grain size at which data were compiled. Secondly, we explored whether mean similarity of species composition was greater for canyons within the same mountain range than for canyons within different mountain ranges. Thirdly, we examined whether mean similarity of species composition at the site level was different for sites within the same canyon, sites within different canyons in the same mountain range, and sites within canyons in different mountain ranges. We used a Bayesian model to analyse these comparisons. Results For both taxonomic groups, mean similarity of species composition increased as the sampling grain increased. The effect of spatial grain was somewhat greater for birds than for butterflies, especially when the intermediate sampling grain was compared with the smallest sampling grain. Similarity of species composition of butterflies at each sampling grain was greater than similarity of species composition of birds at the same grain. Mean similarity of species composition of both birds and butterflies at the canyon level and site level was affected by relative proximity of sampling locations; beta diversity increased as the relative isolation of sampling locations increased. Main conclusions The sensitivity of beta diversity to sampling grain likely reflects the effect of local environmental heterogeneity: as sampling grain increases, biotic assemblages appear more homogeneous. Although breeding birds in our study system have larger home ranges than resident butterflies, birds may have more specialized resource requirements related to vegetation structure and composition, especially at small sampling scales. The degree of variation in species composition of both taxonomic groups suggests that spatially extensive sampling will be more effective for drawing inferences about regional patterns of species diversity than intensive sampling at relatively few, smaller sites.     

Using potential distributions to explore determinants of Western Palaearctic migratory songbird species richness in sub-Saharan Africa

Aim  Although the breeding ranges of most Western Palaearctic migratory passerines are well documented in Europe, their overwintering ranges and patterns of species richness in Africa remain poorly understood. To illustrate potential patterns of species richness despite severely limited data, we extrapolated species ranges from a new and unique data bank of locality records that documents overwintering locations of these birds in Africa.
Location  Sub-Saharan Africa.
Methods  We predicted potential geographical distributions of 60 species of passerine birds based on overwintering records using bioclimatic models. We then combined these predictions to estimate potential species richness and explored response shapes using spatial linear regression. We also evaluated the evidence for a mid-domain effect using a one-dimensional null model.
Results  Spatial linear regression analyses of the species richness pattern revealed non-linear relationships to seasonality in precipitation, minimum net primary productivity, minimum average temperature, habitat heterogeneity, percentage of tree cover, distance from the Sahara Desert and inter-annual variability in net primary productivity. The explanatory power of these variables decreased with geographic range size. The one-dimensional null model of species richness based on distance from the Sahara Desert did not show evidence of a mid-domain effect.
Main conclusions  Distributions of migrants seem generally strongly determined by distance from the Sahara Desert working in concert with climatic effects, but this cannot adequately explain richness patterns of species with small ranges in Africa, many of which are of substantial conservation concern.