Long term climate effects are confounded with the biological control programme against the invasive weed <Emphasis Type="Italic">Baccharis halimifolia</Emphasis> in Australia

Climate has an important influence on the distribution and abundance of invasive species. Habitat suitability for invasive plants could shift with a changing climate and management practices may need to shift in response. Anecdotal evidence suggests that groundsel bush (Baccharis halimifolia) has declined in abundance over the past 50 years in Australia, co-incident with the introduction of a suite of biological control agents. While biological control may be responsible for this decline, here we investigate an alternative hypothesis—that long-term change in the favourability of the climate may have changed growth conditions for groundsel bush throughout its Australian range. We also predict what may happen to the future distribution of this species, using a bioclimatic modelling technique (CLIMEX). We found a significant reduction in the favourability for growth of B. halimifolia over the past 50 years at 29 sites in Australia. Under a likely IPCC future climate scenario prediction (decrease in rainfall and increase in temperature), the favourability for growth of B. halimifolia will continue to decrease in Queensland and its distribution may move further south into New South Wales and Victoria. We conclude that climate alone may have had a significant effect on the distribution and abundance of B. halimifolia and future priorities for management of B. halimifolia should focus on its southern distribution. Determining the success of the biological control programme in isolation from the observed climate effects will be difficult. Given the likelihood of future climate change worldwide evaluation of biological control programmes in general will need to also account for climate effects.     

Niche modelling to guide conservation actions in France for the endangered crayfish Austropotamobius pallipes in relation to the invasive Pacifastacus leniusculus

1. The white-clawed crayfish (Austropotamobius pallipes) is globally endangered due to the impacts of habitat modification and fragmentation, water pollution, climate change, and invasive species, particularly the signal crayfish (Pacifastacus leniusculus). These pressures have caused the decline of A. pallipes populations in Europe, demonstrating the importance of predicting the species' potential distribution under current and future conditions. Focusing on the watercourses of mainland France, we aimed to identify suitable areas for A. pallipes to guide the conservation of current populations and future introduction actions or protection measures.
2. We applied ecological niche modelling to model the potential distribution of both A. pallipes and P. leniusculus and identified locations suitable for A. pallipes only. We also assessed the potential distribution of the species under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios: RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5, respectively describing low-warming and high-warming conditions.
3. We found that A. pallipes and P. leniusculus exploit equivalent niches in France. Despite this, under current conditions, about 5% of the study area simultaneously records a high suitability for A. pallipes and a low suitability for P. leniusculus and is therefore of significant conservation interest. This percentage remains relatively stable under RCP 2.6 for 2050 and 2100, but decreases to 2% under RCP 8.5 for 2100.
4. Ecological niche modelling can supply crucial guidance for conservation actions aimed at protecting endangered species at a national scale by identifying sites most suitable for protection and sites where climate change and invasive species constitute a threat.

     

Range reshuffling: Climate change,invasive species,and the case of Nothofagus forests in Aotearoa New Zealand

Aim

The impact of climate change on forest biodiversity and ecosystem services will be partly determined by the relative fortunes of invasive and native forest trees under future conditions. Aotearoa New Zealand has high conservation value native forests and one of the world's worst invasive tree problems. We assess the relative effects of habitat redistribution on native Nothofagus and invasive conifer (Pinaceae) species in New Zealand as a case study on the compounding impacts of climate change and tree invasions.

Location

Aotearoa New Zealand.

Methods

We use species distribution models (SDMs) to predict the current and future distribution of habitat for five native Nothofagus species and 13 invasive conifer species under two 2070 climate scenarios. We calculate habitat loss/gain for all species and examine overlap between the invasive and native species now and in future.

Results

Most species will lose habitat overall. The native species saw large changes in the distribution of habitat with extensive losses in North Island and gains mostly in South Island. Concerningly, we found that most new habitat for Nothofagus was also suitable for at least one invasive species. However, there were refugia for the native species in the wetter parts of the climate space.

Main Conclusion

If the predicted changes in habitat distribution translate to shifts in forest distribution, it would cause widespread ecological disruption. We discuss how acclimation, adaptation and biotic interactions may prevent/delay some changes. But we also highlight that the poor establishment capacity of Nothofagus, and the contrasting ability of the conifers to invade, will present persistent conservation challenges in areas of both new habitat and forest retreat. Pinaceae are problematic invaders globally, and our results highlight that control of invasions and active native forest restoration will likely be key to managing forest biodiversity under future climates.     

Modelling the spatial distribution of selected North American woodland mammals under future climate scenarios

1. North America has a diverse array of mammalian species. Model projections indicate significant variations in future climate conditions of North America, and the habitats of woodland mammals of this continent may be particularly sensitive to changes in climate.
2. We report on the potential spatial distributions of 13 wide-ranging, relatively common species of North American woodland mammals under future climate scenarios.
3. We examined the potential influence of the mean and seasonal climate variables on the distribution of species. Presence-only occurrence records of species, four predictor variables, two future climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5), and two time steps (current and 2070) were used to build species’ distribution models using a maximum entropy algorithm (MaxEnt).
4. Our results suggested that overall, 11 of the 13 species are likely to gain climatically suitable space (regions where climate conditions will be similar to those of area currently occupied) at the continental scale, but American marten Martes americana and ‘woodland’ caribou Rangifer tarandus are likely to lose suitable climate range by 2070. Furthermore, climate space is likely to be expanding northwards under future climate scenarios for most of the mammals, and many jurisdictions in the border region between Canada and the USA are likely to lose iconic species, such as moose Alces alces. We identified regions as potential in situ and ex situ climate change refugia, which are increasingly considered to be important for biodiversity conservation.
5. The model results suggest significant implications for conservation planning for the 13 mammalian species under global climate change, especially at fine spatial scales. Numerous species that are presently common at their southern range edge will be functionally or completely extirpated in 50 years. The potential in situ and ex situ climate change refugia could provide an effective support for adaptive strategies aimed at species conservation planning.

     

Invasive fountain grass (Pennisetum setaceum (Forssk.) Chiov.) increases its potential area of distribution in Tenerife island under future climatic scenarios

Mapping the distribution of invasive species under current and future climate conditions is crucial to implement sustainable and effective conservation strategies. Several studies showed how invasive species may benefit from climate change fostering their invasion rate and, consequently, affecting the native species community. In the Canary Islands and on Tenerife in particular, previous research mostly focused on climate change impacts on the native communities, whereas less attention has been paid on alien species distribution under climate change scenarios. In this study, we modelled the habitat distribution of Pennisetum setaceum, one of the most invasive alien species on Tenerife. In addition, we described the species’ potential distribution shift in the light of two climate change scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP8.5), highlighting the areas that should be prioritized during management and eradication programs. P. setaceum’s suitable areas are located in the coastal area, with higher habitat suitability near cities and below 800 m asl. In both future climate change scenarios, the geographic distribution of P. setaceum suitable areas is characterized by an elevational shift, which is more pronounced in the RCP8.5 scenario. Despite being drought resistant, water supply is crucial for the species’ seed germination, thus supporting future species’ shift to higher elevation and in the north–north–west part of the island, where it could benefit from the combined effect of orographic precipitations and humidity carried by trade winds.

     

Identifying refugia and corridors under climate change conditions for the Sichuan snub‐nosed monkey (Rhinopithecus roxellana) in Hubei Province,China

Using a case study of an isolated management unit of Sichuan snub‐nosed monkey (Rhinopithecus roxellana), we assess the extent that climate change will impact the species’ habitat distribution in the current period and projected into the 2050s. We identify refugia that could maintain the population under climate change and determine dispersal paths for movement of the population to future suitable habitats. Hubei Province, China. We identified climate refugia and potential movements by integrating bioclimatic models with circuit theory and least‐cost model for the current period (1960–1990) and the 2050s (2041–2060). We coupled a maximum entropy algorithm to predict suitable habitat for the current and projected future periods. Suitable habitat areas that were identified during both time periods and that also satisfied home range and dispersal distance conditions were delineated as refugia. We mapped potential movements measured as current flow and linked current and future habitats using least‐cost corridors. Our results indicate up to 1,119 km² of currently suitable habitat within the study range. Based on our projections, a habitat loss of 67.2% due to climate change may occur by the 2050s, resulting in a reduced suitable habitat area of 406 km² and very little new habitat. The refugia areas amounted to 286 km² and were located in Shennongjia National Park and Badong Natural Reserve. Several connecting corridors between the current and future habitats, which are important for potential movements, were identified. Our assessment of the species predicted a trajectory of habitat loss following anticipated future climate change. We believe conservation efforts should focus on refugia and corridors when planning for future species management. This study will assist conservationists in determining high‐priority regions for effective maintenance of the endangered population under climate change and will encourage increased habitat connectivity.     

Spatial conservation planning under climate change: Using species distribution modeling to assess priority for adaptive management of Fagus crenata in Japan

Protected areas are the basis of modern conservation systems, but current climate change causes gaps between protected areas and the species distribution ranges. To mitigate the impact of climate change on species distribution ranges, revision of protected areas are necessary. Alternatively, active management such as excluding competitive species or transplanting target species would be effective. In this study, we assessed optimal actions (revision of protected areas or active management) in each geographical region to establish an effective spatial conservation plan in Japan. Gaps between the protected areas and future potential habitats were assessed using species distribution models and 20 future climate simulations. Fagus crenata, an endemic and dominant species in Japan, was used as a target species. Potential habitats within the protected areas were predicted to decrease from 22,122 km² at present to 12,309 km² under future climate conditions. Sustainable potential habitats (consistent potential habitats both at present and in future) without the protected areas extended to 13,208 km², and were mainly found in northeast Japan. These results suggest that, in northeast Japan, revisions to protected areas would be effective in preserving sustainable potential habitats under future climate change. However, the potential habitats of southwestern Japan, in which populations were genetically different from northeastern populations, were predicted to virtually disappear both within and outside of protected areas. Active management is thus necessary in southwestern Japan to ensure intraspecific genetic diversity under future climate change.     

Model‐based conservation planning of the genetic diversity of Phellodendron amurense Rupr due to climate change

Climate change affects both habitat suitability and the genetic diversity of wild plants. Therefore, predicting and establishing the most effective and coherent conservation areas is essential for the conservation of genetic diversity in response to climate change. This is because genetic variance is a product not only of habitat suitability in conservation areas but also of efficient protection and management. Phellodendron amurense Rupr. is a tree species (family Rutaceae) that is endangered due to excessive and illegal harvesting for use in Chinese medicine. Here, we test a general computational method for the prediction of priority conservation areas (PCAs) by measuring the genetic diversity of P. amurense across the entirety of northeast China using a single strand repeat analysis of twenty microsatellite markers. Using computational modeling, we evaluated the geographical distribution of the species, both now and in different future climate change scenarios. Different populations were analyzed according to genetic diversity, and PCAs were identified using a spatial conservation prioritization framework. These conservation areas were optimized to account for the geographical distribution of P. amurense both now and in the future, to effectively promote gene flow, and to have a long period of validity. In situ and ex situ conservation, strategies for vulnerable populations were proposed. Three populations with low genetic diversity are predicted to be negatively affected by climate change, making conservation of genetic diversity challenging due to decreasing habitat suitability. Habitat suitability was important for the assessment of genetic variability in existing nature reserves, which were found to be much smaller than the proposed PCAs. Finally, a simple set of conservation measures was established through modeling. This combined molecular and computational ecology approach provides a framework for planning the protection of species endangered by climate change.     

Freshwater wetlands: fertile grounds for the invasive Phragmites australis in a climate change context

Climate change will likely affect flooding regimes, which have a large influence on the functioning of freshwater riparian wetlands. Low water levels predicted for several fluvial systems make wetlands especially vulnerable to the spread of invaders, such as the common reed (Phragmites australis), one of the most invasive species in North America. We developed a model to map the distribution of potential germination grounds of the common reed in freshwater wetlands of the St. Lawrence River (Québec, Canada) under current climate conditions and used this model to predict their future distribution under two climate change scenarios simulated for 2050. We gathered historical and recent (remote sensing) data on the distribution of common reed stands for model calibration and validation purposes, then determined the parameters controlling the species establishment by seed. A two‐dimensional model and the identified parameters were used to simulate the current (2010) and future (2050) distribution of germination grounds. Common reed stands are not widespread along the St. Lawrence River (212 ha), but our model suggests that current climate conditions are already conducive to considerable further expansion (>16,000 ha). Climate change may also exacerbate the expansion, particularly if river water levels drop, which will expose large bare areas propitious to seed germination. This phenomenon may be particularly important in one sector of the river, where existing common reed stands could increase their areas by a factor of 100, potentially creating the most extensive reedbed complex in North America. After colonizing salt and brackishwater marshes, the common reed could considerably expand into the freshwater marshes of North America which cover several million hectares. The effects of common reed expansion on biodiversity are difficult to predict, but likely to be highly deleterious given the competitiveness of the invader and the biological richness of freshwater wetlands.     

Co‐occurrence patterns of trees along macro‐climatic gradients and their potential influence on the present and future distribution of Fagus sylvatica L.

Aim During recent and future climate change, shifts in large‐scale species ranges are expected due to the hypothesized major role of climatic factors in regulating species distributions. The stress‐gradient hypothesis suggests that biotic interactions may act as major constraints on species distributions under more favourable growing conditions, while climatic constraints may dominate under unfavourable conditions. We tested this hypothesis for one focal tree species having three major competitors using broad‐scale environmental data. We evaluated the variation of species co‐occurrence patterns in climate space and estimated the influence of these patterns on the distribution of the focal species for current and projected future climates. Location Europe. Methods We used ICP Forest Level 1 data as well as climatic, topographic and edaphic variables. First, correlations between the relative abundance of European beech (Fagus sylvatica) and three major competitor species (Picea abies, Pinus sylvestris and Quercus robur) were analysed in environmental space, and then projected to geographic space. Second, a sensitivity analysis was performed using generalized additive models (GAM) to evaluate where and how much the predicted F. sylvatica distribution varied under current and future climates if potential competitor species were included or excluded. We evaluated if these areas coincide with current species co‐occurrence patterns. Results Correlation analyses supported the stress‐gradient hypothesis: towards favourable growing conditions of F. sylvatica, its abundance was strongly linked to the abundance of its competitors, while this link weakened towards unfavourable growing conditions, with stronger correlations in the south and at low elevations than in the north and at high elevations. The sensitivity analysis showed a potential spatial segregation of species with changing climate and a pronounced shift of zones where co‐occurrence patterns may play a major role. Main conclusions Our results demonstrate the importance of species co‐occurrence patterns for calibrating improved species distribution models for use in projections of climate effects. The correlation approach is able to localize European areas where inclusion of biotic predictors is effective. The climate‐induced spatial segregation of the major tree species could have ecological and economic consequences.     

American trees shift their niches when invading Western Europe: evaluating invasion risks in a changing climate

Four North American trees are becoming invasive species in Western Europe: Acer negundo, Prunus serotina, Quercus rubra, and Robinia pseudoacacia. However, their present and future potential risks of invasion have not been yet evaluated. Here, we assess niche shifts between the native and invasive ranges and the potential invasion risk of these four trees in Western Europe. We estimated niche conservatism in a multidimensional climate space using niche overlap Schoener's D, niche equivalence, and niche similarity tests. Niche unfilling and expansion were also estimated in analogous and nonanalogous climates. The capacity for predicting the opposite range between the native and invasive areas (transferability) was estimated by calibrating species distribution models (SDMs) on each range separately. Invasion risk was estimated using SDMs calibrated on both ranges and projected for 2050 climatic conditions. Our results showed that native and invasive niches were not equivalent with low niche overlap for all species. However, significant similarity was found between the invasive and native ranges of Q. rubra and R. pseudoacacia. Niche expansion was lower than 15% for all species, whereas unfilling ranged from 7 to 56% when it was measured using the entire climatic space and between 5 and 38% when it was measured using analogous climate only. Transferability was low for all species. SDMs calibrated over both ranges projected high habitat suitability in Western Europe under current and future climates. Thus, the North American and Western European ranges are not interchangeable irrespective of the studied species, suggesting that other environmental and/or biological characteristics are shaping their invasive niches. The current climatic risk of invasion is especially high for R. pseudoacacia and A. negundo. In the future, the highest risks of invasion for all species are located in Central and Northern Europe, whereas the risk is likely to decrease in the Mediterranean basin.     

Future hydrological constraints of the Montseny brook newt (Calotriton arnoldi) under changing climate and vegetation cover

The Montseny brook newt (Calotriton arnoldi) is a critically endangered amphibian species which inhabits a small 20 km² holm oak and beech forest area in NE Spain. Calotriton arnoldi strictly lives in running waters and might be highly vulnerable to hydrological perturbations expected to occur under climate and vegetation cover changes. Knowledge about the potential response of the species habitat to environmental changes can help assessing the actions needed for its conservation. Based on knowledge of the species and supported by observations, we proposed daily low and high streamflow event thresholds for the viability of C. arnoldi. We used the rainfall–runoff model PERSiST to simulate changes in the frequency and duration of these events, which were predicted under two climate and four vegetation cover scenarios for near‐future (2031–2050) and far‐future (2081–2100) periods in a reference catchment. All future scenarios projected a significant decrease in annual streamflow (from 21% to as much as 67%) with respect to the reference period. The frequency and length of low streamflow events will dramatically increase. In contrast, the risk of catastrophic drift linked to high streamflow events was predicted to decrease. The potential change in vegetation toward an expansion of holm oak forests will be more important than climate changes in determining threshold low flow conditions. We thus demonstrated that consideration of potential changes in vegetation and not only changes in climate variables is essential in simulating future streamflows. This study shows that future low streamflow conditions will pose a severe threat for the survival of C. arnoldi and may help taking management actions, including limiting the expansion of holm oak forest, for ameliorating the species habitat and help its conservation.     

Towards the top: niche expansion of Taraxacum officinale and Ulex europaeus in mountain regions of South America

In the current context of ongoing global change, the understanding of how the niches of invasive species may change between different geographical areas or time periods is extremely important for the early detection and control of future invasions. We evaluated the effect of climate and non‐climate variables and the sensitivity to various spatial resolutions (i.e. 1 and 20 km) on niche changes during the invasion of Taraxacum officinale and Ulex europaeus in South America. We estimated niche changes using a combination of principal components analyses (PCA) and reciprocal Ecological Niche Modelling (rENM). We further investigated future invasion dynamics under a severe warming scenario for 2050 to unravel the role of niche shifts in the future potential distribution of the species. We observed a clear niche expansion for both species in South America towards higher temperature, precipitation and radiation relative to their native ranges. In contrast, the set of environmental conditions only occupied in the native ranges (i.e. niche unfilling) were less relevant. The magnitude of the niche shifts did not depend on the resolution of the variables. Models calibrated with occurrences from native range predicted large suitable areas in South America (outside of the Andes range) where T. officinale and U. europaeus are currently absent. Additionally, both species could increase their potential distributions by 2050, mostly in the southern part of the continent. In addition, the niche unfilling suggests high potential to invade additional regions in the future, which is extremely relevant considering the current impact of these species in the Southern Hemisphere. These findings confirm that invasive species can occupy new niches that are not predictable from knowledge based only on climate variables or information from the native range.     

The Effects of Climate Change on the Long-Term Conservation of Fagus grandifolia var. mexicana, an Important Species of the Cloud Forest in Eastern Mexico

We examined the effects of climate change on the future conservation and distribution patterns of the cloud forests in eastern Mexico, by using as a species model to Fagus grandifolia Ehr. var. mexicana (Martínez) Little which is mainly located in this vegetation type, at the Sierra Madre Oriental. This species was selected because it is restricted to the cloud forest, where it is a dominant element and has not been considered for protection in any national or international law. It is probably threatened due to the fact that it plays an important social role as a source of food and furnishing. We used a floristic database and a bioclimatic modeling approach including 19 climatic parameters, in order to obtain the current potential distribution pattern of the species. Currently, its potential distribution pattern shows that it is distributed in six different Mexican Priority Regions for Conservation. In addition, we also selected a future climate scenario, on the basis of some climate changes predictions already proposed. The scenario proposed is characterized by +2 °C and −20% rainfall in the region. Under this predicted climatic condition, we found a drastic distribution contraction of the species, in which most of the remaining populations will inhabit restricted areas located outside the boundaries of the surrounding reserves. Consequently, our results highlight the importance of considering the effects of possible future climate changes on the selection of conservation areas and the urgency to conserve some remaining patches of existing cloud forests. Accordingly, we believe that our bioclimatic modeling approach represents a useful tool to undertake decisions concerning the definition of protected areas, once the current potential distribution pattern of some selected species is known.     

Increasing potential risk of a global aquatic invader in Europe in contrast to other continents under future climate change

Background

Anthropogenically-induced climate change can alter the current climatic habitat of non-native species and can have complex effects on potentially invasive species. Predictions of the potential distributions of invasive species under climate change will provide critical information for future conservation and management strategies. Aquatic ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to invasive species and climate change, but the effect of climate change on invasive species distributions has been rather neglected, especially for notorious global invaders.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We used ecological niche models (ENMs) to assess the risks and opportunities that climate change presents for the red swamp crayfish (Procambarus clarkii), which is a worldwide aquatic invasive species. Linking the factors of climate, topography, habitat and human influence, we developed predictive models incorporating both native and non-native distribution data of the crayfish to identify present areas of potential distribution and project the effects of future climate change based on a consensus-forecast approach combining the CCCMA and HADCM3 climate models under two emission scenarios (A2a and B2a) by 2050. The minimum temperature from the coldest month, the human footprint and precipitation of the driest quarter contributed most to the species distribution models. Under both the A2a and B2a scenarios, P. clarkii shifted to higher latitudes in continents of both the northern and southern hemispheres. However, the effect of climate change varied considerately among continents with an expanding potential in Europe and contracting changes in others.

Conclusions/Significance

Our findings are the first to predict the impact of climate change on the future distribution of a globally invasive aquatic species. We confirmed the complexities of the likely effects of climate change on the potential distribution of globally invasive species, and it is extremely important to develop wide-ranging and effective control measures according to predicted geographical shifts and changes.     

Prediction of habitat suitability,connectivity, and corridors in the future to conserve roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) as a locally endangered species in northern Iran

Roe deer is a protected species in Iran as its population and distribution in the country have considerably declined. Roe deer are threatened by several factors such as habitat fragmentation and road mortality, so studying their distribution and movement through the increasing habitat destruction and fragmentation is necessary. This will become increasingly important because climate change will transform the species’ future habitat and connectivity patterns. We evaluated the roe deer’s potential distribution range in northern Iran and, for the first time, developed connectivity models and designed corridors for the present and future to make better conservation plans. We collected 91 points indicating the presence of roe deer in the study region. After developing ensemble models using six species distribution algorithms, we defined high-ranked habitat cores using the concept of landscape suitability prioritization. From these, we designed connectivity and corridors in two time-frames with the help of least-cost paths and circuit theories to predict the potential movement throughout the study area. We estimated that the overall core habitats for roe deer in the present and future periods are, respectively, around 1200 km² and 2600 km², corresponding to 2 and 4 percent of the whole area. This suggests that the habitat core will expand in the future as a result of climate change. Similarly, the connectivity among the cores will strengthen. We also conclude that the temperature-driven and anthropogenic variables significantly affect the distribution of roe deer in northern Iran. It is necessary that conservationists and managers consider the designed corridors in the present study while planning conservation strategies.     

Niche Conservatism and Future Changes in the Potential Area Coverage of Arundina graminifolia,an Invasive Orchid Species from Southeast Asia

The Asian orchid, Arundina graminifolia, has been introduced to many locations over the last 50 yr, predominantly in South and Central America. A list of localities of A. graminifolia was compiled and used to model potential climatic niches based on the maximum entropy method. The differences are presented between niches occupied by native and invasive populations of A. graminifolia, and possible changes in the potential range of the species are discussed on the basis of various climate change scenarios. The coverage of habitats suitable for A. graminifolia will be reduced under future climate changes scenarios. The created niche distribution models indicated a more significant reduction in the potential ecological niches of the studied species in its invasive range. Nevertheless, areas with potentially suitable bioclimatic conditions for A. graminifolia should be monitored to prevent future uncontrolled invasion of the orchid into new habitats and to study its impact on the local ecosystems, as vast areas of its potential niche in the Americas are still unoccupied.     

Climate change aggravates anthropogenic threats of the endangered savanna tree Pterocarpus erinaceus (Fabaceae) in Burkina Faso

Species distribution modelling is gaining popularity due to significant habitat shifts in many plant and animal species caused by climate change. This issue is particularly pressing for species that provide significant ecosystem goods and services. A prominent case is the valuable African rosewood tree (Pterocarpus erinaceus) that is threatened in sub-Saharan Africa, while its present distribution, habitat requirements and the impact of climate change are not fully understood. This native species naturally occurs in various savanna types, but anthropogenic interventions have considerably reduced its natural populations in the past decades. In this study, ensemble modelling was used to predict the current and future distribution potential of the species in Burkina Faso. Fifty-four environmental variables were selected to describe its distribution in the years 2050 and 2070 based on the greenhouse gas concentration trajectories RCP4.5 and 8.5, and the general circulation models CNRM-CM5 and HadGEM2-CC. A network of protected areas in Burkina Faso was also included to assess how many of the suitable habitats may contribute to the conservation of the species. The factors isothermality (31%), minimum temperature of coldest month (31%), pH in H₂O at horizon 0–5 cm (11%), silt content at horizon 60–100 cm (9.2%) and precipitation of warmest quarter (8%) were the most influential distribution drivers for the species. Under current climate conditions, potentially highly suitable habitats cover an area of 129,695 km², i.e., 47% of Burkina Faso. The projected distribution under RCP4.5 and 8.5 showed that this area will decrease, and that the decline of the species will be pronounced. The two models used in this study, forecast a habitat loss of up to 61% for P. erinaceus. Hence, development and implementation of a conservation programme are required to save the species in its native range. This study will help land managers prioritise areas for protection of the species, and avoid introducing it to inappropriate areas unless suitable conditions are artificially created through the management options applied.     

Modeling Hawaiian Ecosystem Degradation due to Invasive Plants under Current and Future Climates

Occupation of native ecosystems by invasive plant species alters their structure and/or function. In Hawaii, a subset of introduced plants is regarded as extremely harmful due to competitive ability, ecosystem modification, and biogeochemical habitat degradation. By controlling this subset of highly invasive ecosystem modifiers, conservation managers could significantly reduce native ecosystem degradation. To assess the invasibility of vulnerable native ecosystems, we selected a proxy subset of these invasive plants and developed robust ensemble species distribution models to define their respective potential distributions. The combinations of all species models using both binary and continuous habitat suitability projections resulted in estimates of species richness and diversity that were subsequently used to define an invasibility metric. The invasibility metric was defined from species distribution models with <0.7 niche overlap (Warrens I) and relatively discriminative distributions (Area Under the Curve >0.8; True Skill Statistic >0.75) as evaluated per species. Invasibility was further projected onto a 2100 Hawaii regional climate change scenario to assess the change in potential habitat degradation. The distribution defined by the invasibility metric delineates areas of known and potential invasibility under current climate conditions and, when projected into the future, estimates potential reductions in native ecosystem extent due to climate-driven invasive incursion. We have provided the code used to develop these metrics to facilitate their wider use (Code S1). This work will help determine the vulnerability of native-dominated ecosystems to the combined threats of climate change and invasive species, and thus help prioritize ecosystem and species management actions.     

The impact of climate change and potential distribution of the endangered white winged wood duck (Asarcornis scutulata, 1882) in Indian eastern Himalaya

The White-Winged Wood duck (Asarcornis scutulata) is an endangered forest wetland bird currently on the verge of extinction due to an array of anthropogenic pressures. It has been reported that global climate change could affect the distribution of many bird species globally. Therefore, an understanding the potential distribution of the White-Winged Wood duck in future climate scenarios could facilitate the creation of immediate conservation plans and the mitigation of subsequent threats. This is the first ever study on the distribution of White-Winged Wood Duck (WWWD) where Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario was used to forecast the distribution of the WWWD in the Indian Eastern Himalayan region in the 2050s and 2070s. The study revealed that 1.87 % of the total area of IEH has the high potential distribution of WWWD. The state of Assam alone includes 1.68 % of the highly potential habitat in the region. It was predicted that 436.61 km² of highly potential habitat would be lost by 2070. Changes in the annual temperature range, precipitation in the wettest months (June to September), and precipitation decrease in the warmest quarter (October to December) would result in the loss of highly potential habitats. Under the influence of climate change, the habitat of WWWD in the eastern part of the region is likely to shift towards the western part. It was found that there will be a decline in potential habitat in the Indian states of Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Nagaland, and Tripura located in the IEH under future climate scenarios. The potential of areas located at the Bhutan and Assam border would increase for supporting WWWD as this species' requires the average annual precipitation about 1000–1200 mm. However, the simultaneous anthropogenic activity would further destroy potential habitats in the future. The current study has provided baseline data on the potential distribution of WWWD in the IEH region for immediate conservation management plans.