Testing assumptions of mark–recapture protocols for estimating population size using Australian mound-building, subterranean termites

1. Forager population size of two species of mound-building, subterranean termite ( Coptotermes lacteus , Rhinotermitidae and Nasutitermes exitiosus , Termitidae) was estimated using three mark–recapture protocols. These estimates varied widely within and between colonies (≈ 0.3–200 million for C. lacteus and 0.2–3 million for N. exitiosus ). The variation in the estimates is explained in part by violation of the assumptions of the protocols.
2. The fat-stain markers, although persistent in the laboratory, faded rapidly in the field, and were transferable from marked individuals to unmarked individuals by cannibalism.
3. Marked individuals did not mix randomly or evenly with unmarked foraging individuals in space or time, as marked individuals were recaptured in widely varying numbers at different feeding sites sampled simultaneously. Importantly, foragers displayed feeding site fidelity and avoided disturbed feeding sites.
4. The likelihood of recapture differed between castes and instars; there was a higher recapture rate of large workers and soldiers relative to smaller workers.
5. The mark–recapture protocols provided inaccurate and unreliable forager population estimates, up to two orders of magnitude larger than direct counts of entire mound colonies. Thus the weighted mean estimates from more complex triple-mark–recapture protocols were not necessarily better than Lincoln index estimates from simpler single-mark–recapture protocols.
6. Mark–recapture studies may provide useful information about forager behaviour and foraging territories.     

Estimating population size for capture-recapture data when capture probabilities vary by time and individual animal.

There have been no estimators of population size associated with the capture-recapture model when the capture probabilities vary by time and individual animal. This work proposes a nonparametric estimation technique that is appropriate for such a model using the idea of sample coverage, which is defined as the proportion of the total individual capture probabilities of the captured animals. A simulation study was carried out to show the performance of the proposed estimation procedure. Numerical results indicate that it generally works satisfactorily when the coefficient of variation of the individual capture probabilities is relatively large. An example is also given for illustration.     

Effects of environmental perturbation on the territory size of subterranean termites: A simulation study

Disruptions to an ecological system can have profound effects on the use of that system by various species. Such effects are often studied in terrestrial or aquatic species, but subterranean species are equally affected. To investigate how environmental perturbation affects the territory size of subterranean termites, a lattice model was designed based using seasonal and behavioral data to simulate the foraging behavior of the Formosan subterranean termite Coptotermes formosanus Shiraki. This computer model was then used to subject a given number of founding pairs (N = 20, 40, 60, 80, 100 at t = 0) to several levels of environmental perturbations (H = 0.0–1.0) once initial territory growth had reached saturation for a fixed area (t = 5). At lower values of H, territories were reduced to localized holdings randomly distributed over the entire model area. As H increased, the size of surviving territories increased while the total number of territories decreased. Analysis of territory size post-disruption (t = 10) indicated a trend towards larger overall territorial size when both N and H were high, whereas no such increase was seen when N was low. These results can be used to improve modeling systems to determine survival of subterranean populations in environmental disasters.     

Estimating population size and density of a low-density population of black bears in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado

Rocky Mountain National Park (RMNP) is home to a low-density black bear (Ursus americanus) population that exists at >2,400?m with a very limited growing season. A previous study (1984–1991) found bear densities among the lowest reported (1.37–1.52 bears/100?km²). Because of concerns of viability of this small population, we assessed population size and density of black bears from 2003 to 2006 to determine the current status of RMNP’s bear population. We used three approaches to estimate population size and density: (1) minimum number known, (2) occupancy modeling, and (3) catch per unit effort (CPUE). We used information from capture and remote-triggered cameras, as well as visitor information, to derive a minimum known population estimate of 20–24 individuals and a median density estimate of 1.35 bears/100?km². Bear occupancy was estimated at 0.46 (SE?=?0.11), with occupancy positively influenced by lodgepole pine stands, non-vegetated areas, and patch density but negatively influenced by mixed conifer stands. We combined the occupancy estimate with mean home-range size and overlap for bears in RMNP to derive a density estimate of 1.44 bears/100?km². We also related CPUE to density estimates for eight low-density black bear populations to estimate density in RMNP; this estimate (1.03 bears/100?km²) was comparable to the occupancy estimate and suggests that this approach may be useful for future population monitoring. The use of corroborative techniques for assessing population size of a low-density black bear population was effective and should be considered for similar low-density wildlife populations.     

Toxicity of seven termiticides on the formosan and eastern subterranean termites

Using both topical application and substrate (sand) treatments the toxicities of seven new generation soil termiticides were evaluated to determine the LD50 and LC50 against two economically important subterranean termite species, eastern subterranean termite, Reticulitermes flavipes (Kollar), and Formosan subterranean termite, Coptotermes formosanus Shiraki. The lethal dose toxicity (LD50) rankings for R. flavipes from highest to lowest were: fipronil > bifenthrin > chlorantraniliprole > cyantraniliprole > imidacloprid > chlorfenapyr > indoxacarb; the rankings for C. formosanus were fipronil > imidacloprid > chlorantraniliprole > cyanthraniliprole> bifenthrin > chlorfenapyr > indoxacarb. The respective lethal concentration toxicity (LC50) rankings were fipronil > bifenthrin > chlorfenapyr > indoxacarb > cyantraniliprole > chlorantraniliprole > imidacloprid for R. flavipes; and fipronil > chlorfenapyr > bifenthrin >imidacloprid > cyantraniliprole > chlorantraniliprole > indoxacarb for C. formosanus. The study provides an opportunity to directly compare toxicity, action speed, and bioavailability among this group of newer generation soil termiticides.     

Territory size distribution of Formosan subterranean termites in urban landscape: Comparison between experimental and simulated results

The territory size distribution of Formosan subterranean termites in an urban landscape was studied by using a two-dimensional lattice model with minimized local rules on the basis of empirical data to determine the development of a territory. An urban landscape including components such as complex man-made structures, trees, and lakes was constructed on a lattice space. Each component was described by assigning values ranging from 0.0 to 1.0. These values were interpreted as transition probabilities, P_trans, which represented the spatially distributed properties of the components. The higher the P_trans values, better were the environmental conditions for territory growth. We applied this model to the termite colonies in Louis Armstrong Park in New Orleans, LA. A comparison of the model prediction and the observed territory size distribution showed very similar trends in maximum territory on a size-normalized scale. The trends emerged from two effects: first, when a founding pair was surrounded by lattice cells with low P_trans values, its growth was strongly inhibited, and second, when territories competed with each other at shared boundaries, their growth was restrained. In addition, we investigated the effect of the presence/absence of landscape components on the territory size distribution in the simulation.     

Screening of knee-joint vibroarthrographic signals using probability density functions estimated with Parzen windows

Pathological conditions of knee joints have been observed to cause changes in the characteristics of vibroarthrographic (VAG) signals. Several studies have proposed many parameters for the analysis and classification of VAG signals; however, no statistical modeling methods have been explored to analyze the distinctions in the probability density functions (PDFs) between normal and abnormal VAG signals. In the present work, models of PDFs were derived using the Parzen-window approach to represent the statistical characteristics of normal and abnormal VAG signals. The Kullback-Leibler distance was computed between the PDF of the signal to be classified and the PDF models for normal and abnormal VAG signals. Additional statistical measures, including the mean, standard deviation, coefficient of variation, skewness, kurtosis, and entropy, were also derived from the PDFs obtained. An overall classification accuracy of 77.53%, sensitivity of 71.05%, and specificity of 82.35% were obtained with a database of 89 VAG signals using a neural network with radial basis functions with the leave-one-out procedure for cross validation. The screening efficiency was derived to be 0.8322, in terms of the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve.     

Estimating density dependence from population time series using demographic theory and life-history data

For populations with a density-dependent life history reproducing at discrete annual intervals, we analyze small or moderate fluctuations in population size around a stable equilibrium, which is applicable to many vertebrate populations. Using a life history having age at maturity alpha, with stochasticity and density dependence in adult recruitment and mortality, we derive a linearized autoregressive equation with time lags from 1 to alpha yr. Contrary to current interpretations, the coefficients corresponding to different time lags in the autoregressive dynamics are not simply measures of delayed density dependence but also depend on life-history parameters. The theory indicates that the total density dependence in a life history, D, should be defined as the negative elasticity of population growth rate per generation with respect to change in population size, [Formula: see text], where lambda is the asymptotic multiplicative growth rate per year, T is the generation time, and N is adult population size. The total density dependence in the life history, D, can be estimated from the sum of the autoregression coefficients. We estimate D in populations of seven vertebrate species for which life-history studies and unusually long time series of complete population censuses are available. Estimates of D were statistically significant and large, on the order of 1 or higher, indicating strong density dependence in five of the seven species. We also show that life history can explain the qualitative features of population autocorrelation functions and power spectra and observations of increasing empirical variance in population size with increasing length of time series.     

Estimating the size of the HIV epidemic by using mortality data

Evidence that more people are dying as a result of HIV infection than is reflected by the number of deaths among reported cases meeting the WHO definition of AIDS is derived from mortality data. Ninety-five causes of death likely to be associated with HIV infection were selected. Standardized mortality ratios due to these causes increased for single men aged 15-54 years from 100 in 1984 to 118 in 1987. The age, sex, marital status, temporal and geographic distribution of these excess deaths suggest that they are HIV-associated. It is estimated that 58% of excess deaths due to HIV-related causes were among cases reported to the CDSC AIDS Surveillance Programme in 1987. Some of these deaths may have been among HIV-positive people who did not meet the WHO definition at the time of death. There is a need for surveillance to be extended to include HIV-positive people who die before meeting the WHO definition if the full extent of the HIV epidemic is to be identified.     

Simulation study on the tunnel networks of subterranean termites and the foraging behavior

Most subterranean termites forage for food by creating tunnel galleries underground. These tunnel networks reflect a compromise between foraging efficiency and other environmental constraints, such as soil hardness and moisture content. Thus, understanding tunnel networks is important for understanding foraging behavior. Due to the difficulties in direct observation of tunneling patterns in the field, we used a theoretical approach for this analysis. We first constructed a lattice model to simulate the tunnel networks of Coptotermes formosanus Shiraki and Reticulitermes flavipes (Kollar) on the basis of the experimental data provided by Su et al. (Su, N.-Y., Stith, B.M., Puche, H., Bardunias, P., 2004. Characterization of tunneling geometry of subterranean termites (Isoptera: Rhinotermitidae) by computer simulation. Sociobiology 44 (3), 471–483.). Using this model and two of its modified versions, we explored the relationship between the food encounter rate and food distributions and analyzed how this relationship is influenced by changes in the tunnel characteristic constituents, such as the branching tunnel length and frequency. Additionally, we investigated the effects of landscape heterogeneity on the foraging efficiency. In the discussion, we briefly introduced our novel individual-based model comprising individual termites and their surroundings, and we addressed the necessity of this model in the functioning of the network and the formation of the network in relation to foraging behavior.     

Maintaining genetic diversity using molecular coancestry: the effect of marker density and effective population size

Background

The most efficient method to maintain genetic diversity in populations under conservation programmes is to optimize, for each potential parent, the number of offspring left to the next generation by minimizing the global coancestry. Coancestry is usually calculated from genealogical data but molecular markers can be used to replace genealogical coancestry with molecular coancestry. Recent studies showed that optimizing contributions based on coancestry calculated from a large number of SNP markers can maintain higher levels of diversity than optimizing contributions based on genealogical data. In this study, we investigated how SNP density and effective population size impact the use of molecular coancestry to maintain diversity.

Results

At low SNP densities, the genetic diversity maintained using genealogical coancestry for optimization was higher than that maintained using molecular coancestry. The performance of molecular coancestry improved with increasing marker density, and, for the scenarios evaluated, it was as efficient as genealogical coancestry if SNP density reached at least 3 times the effective population size.However, increasing SNP density resulted in reduced returns in terms of maintained diversity. While a benefit of 12% was achieved when marker density increased from 10 to 100 SNP/Morgan, the benefit was only 2% when it increased from 100 to 500 SNP/Morgan.

Conclusions

The marker density of most SNP chips already available for farm animals is sufficient for molecular coancestry to outperform genealogical coancestry in conservation programmes aimed at maintaining genetic diversity. For the purpose of effectively maintaining genetic diversity, a marker density of around 500 SNPs/Morgan can be considered as the most cost effective density when developing SNP chips for new species. Since the costs to develop SNP chips are decreasing, chips with 500 SNPs/Morgan should become available in a short-term horizon for non domestic species.     

Generation of random sequences with jointly specified probability density and autocorrelation functions

A new method is presented for the generation of stochastic (random) sequences with an arbitrarily specified first-order probability distribution function (PDF) and an arbitrarily specified first-roder auto-correlation function (ACF). A set of numbers with the desired PDF are first generated. These are then given a white (independent) ACF by double stochastic interchange. The desired ACF is then obtained by stochastically shuffling the series to minimize a sum of squares criterion between desired and actual ACFs. The technique is particularily useful for generating experimental stimuli for system identification, sequences for numerical simulation, and test series for evaluating signal processing algorithms when colored (non-white) non-Gaussian data are required.     

Estimating the population size of an endangered shorebird, the Madagascar plover, using a habitat suitability model

The Madagascar plover Charadrius thoracicus is a shorebird endemic to western Madagascar, currently classified as globally vulnerable. It is restricted to specialized wetland habitats that are increasingly threatened by humans. To inform future conservation measures for this poorly known species, we develop a predictive habitat suitability map and use this map to estimate the size of the Madagascar plover population. We integrate spatially referenced presence-only observations of Madagascar plovers with Landsat data, elevation data and measures of distance to settlements and the coast to produce a habitat suitability model using ecological niche factor analysis. Validation of this model using a receiver operating characteristic plot suggests that it is at least 84% accurate in predicting suitable sites. We then use our estimate of total area of suitable habitat above a critical suitability threshold and data on Madagascar plover density in suitable sites to estimate the total population size to derive a total population estimate of 3100±396 standard error individuals. Finally, we explore the conservation applications of our model.     

Estimating colony area and population size of little auks <Emphasis Type="Italic">Alle alle</Emphasis> at Northumberland Island using aerial images

This paper presents a technique to estimate little auk population size from the area of the colonies measured by the use of video recordings and aerial photographs. To transform colony area into population size, breeding densities obtained from the literature were used. The study area, Northumberland Island, Thule District, Northwest Greenland, revealed between 6 and 12 million km² inhabited colony area, which was classified into three categories for colony identification. The lower figure of this estimate is equivalent to a little auk population of 4.6 million pairs. An extrapolation to the rest of the Thule District should be treated with care but would amount to at least 33 million pairs. There is no doubt that the methods used would benefit from more fine-scale ground-truth surveys in the Thule District.     

Estimating the size of closed populations using inverse multiple-recapture sampling

A log-linear model for estimating the size of a closed population is defined for inverse multiple-recapture sampling with dependent samples. Efficient estimators of the log-linear model parameters and the population size are obtained by the method of minimum chi-square. A chi-square test of the general linear hypothesis regarding the log-linear model parameters is defined.