Estimates of population size of white-chinned petrels and grey petrels at Kerguelen Islands and sensitivity to fisheries

White-chinned petrels Procellaria aequinoctialis and grey petrels Procellaria cinerea are among the most frequently killed seabird species by accidental bycatch, and both species have received strong conservation concern. Data on population size are required to evaluate the impact of bycatch and to establish management plans. We estimated the population size of both species at Kerguelen, Southern Indian Ocean, from 2004 to 2006 by explicitly taking into account detection probability of burrows using distance sampling and burrow occupancy. A total of 31 line-transects were distributed across the eastern part of Kerguelen, representing a total length of 566 km. Detectability was low (from 0.19 to 0.54 for white-chinned petrels, 0.58 for grey petrels). Burrow densities varied from 1.37±0.67 to 25.77±5.23 burrows ha⁻¹ for white-chinned petrels and was 2.78±0.79 burrows ha⁻¹ for grey petrels. For white-chinned petrels, these densities were extrapolated to the entire surface area of vegetation and there were 234 000 (186 000–297 000) active burrows on Kerguelen. For grey petrels, the number of active burrows for the eastern part of Kerguelen was 3400 (1900–5600). Based on these estimates, the potential biological removal method suggests that the additional mortality on birds caused by the fisheries operating around Kerguelen can be considered a serious threat for the species at least at the regional scale of the Southern Indian Ocean, especially for grey petrels.     

Diving behaviour of white-chinned petrels and its relevance for mitigating longline bycatch

The white-chinned petrel (Procellaria aequinoctialis) is the seabird species most commonly killed by Southern Hemisphere longline fisheries. Despite the importance of diving ability for mitigating longline bycatch, little is known of this species’ diving behaviour. We obtained data from temperature–depth recorders from nine white-chinned petrels breeding on Marion Island, southwestern Indian Ocean, during the late incubation and chick-rearing period. Maximum dive depth (16 m) was slightly deeper than the previous estimate (13 m), but varied considerably among individuals (range 2–16 m). Males dived deeper than females, and birds feeding chicks dived deeper than incubating birds, but dive rate did not differ between the sexes. Time of day had no significant effect on dive depth or rate. Our findings will help to improve the design and performance of mitigation measures aimed at reducing seabird bycatch in longline fisheries, such as the calculation of minimum line sink rates and optimum aerial coverage of bird-scaring lines.     

Factors affecting the number and mortality of seabirds attending trawlers and long-liners in the Kerguelen area

The factors affecting the number and the mortality rates of seabirds attending long-liners and trawlers fishing in the Kerguelen area were studied during four successive seasons (1994–1997), based on observations carried out onboard by dedicated observers. Twenty-four species of seabirds were observed attending fishing vessels, representing an average of 591 birds/census. The total numbers attending varied mainly according to the year, the cloud cover and the presence of offal from long-liners. The dumping of offal increased the numbers of birds attending the vessel, especially when the offal could be easily handled by birds. The activity of the vessels also affected the numbers attending, birds being more abundant during line setting and trawl hauling. White-chinned petrels were the most abundant ship-following seabirds, followed by black-browed albatrosses, giant petrels and cape petrels. The number of white-chinned petrels, black-browed and grey-headed albatrosses attending fishing vessels increased in the time between spring and autumn, whereas it was the reverse situation for giant petrels and cape petrels. Four species of seabirds were caught by fishing gear, mainly by long-lines: white-chinned petrels, and black-browed, grey-headed and wandering albatrosses. Taking into account the number of birds from each species attending long-liners and known to be potential by-catch, some species appear to be more susceptible to being caught than others. White-chinned and grey-headed albatrosses are caught in much higher proportions than the numbers present, whereas black-browed albatrosses are caught in lower numbers. Giant petrels are abundant around long-liners but were never caught. In long-liners, most birds were killed when the lines were set during the day or when the deployment of the scaring device was not successful, with an overall figure of 0.47 birds/1000 hooks. Only one albatross was caught when the lines were set during the night. White-chinned petrels represented 92.2% of all birds killed by long-liners. The number of birds caught varied significantly among months and among years. The type of bait used also affected the catch rate. The catch rate was related to the number of birds attending the long-liner only for black-browed albatrosses. Most birds killed by trawlers were entangled by the netsonde cable. The efficiency of mitigation measures in order to reduce seabird mortality is discussed and it is stressed that night setting is the most efficient way to reduce mortality and should be enforced everywhere when possible. However, further methods should be developed to reduce the mortality of species active at night, especially white-chinned petrels whose populations in the Indian Ocean may by threatened by long-line fisheries. Accepted: 15 October 1999     

Biodiversity Offsets: A Cost-Effective Interim Solution to Seabird Bycatch in Fisheries?

The concept of biodiversity offsets is well established as an approach to environmental management. The concept has been suggested for environmental management in fisheries, particularly in relation to the substantial numbers of non-target species--seabirds in particular--caught and killed as incidental bycatch during fishing activities. Substantial areas of fisheries are being closed to protect these species at great cost to the fishing industry. However, other actions may be taken to offset the impact of fishing on these populations at lower cost to the fishing industry. This idea, however, has attracted severe criticism largely as it does not address the underlying externality problems created by the fishing sector, namely seabird fishing mortality. In this paper, we re-examine the potential role of compensatory mitigation as a fisheries management tool, although from the perspective of being an interim management measure while more long-lasting solutions to the problem are found. We re-model an example previously examined by both proponents and opponents of the approach, namely the cost effectiveness of rodent control relative to fishery area closures for the conservation of a seabird population adversely affected by an Australian tuna fishery. We find that, in the example being examined, invasive rodent eradication is at least 10 times more cost effective than area closures. We conclude that, while this does not solve the actual bycatch problem, it may provide breathing space for both the seabird species and the industry to find longer term means of reducing bycatch.     

The white-chinned petrel (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Procellaria aequinoctialis</Emphasis>) on South Georgia: population size,distribution and global significance

More white-chinned petrels (Procellaria aequinoctialis) are accidentally killed in fisheries than probably any other seabird in the world, but the population impact of this mortality is poorly understood, partly because there have been no recent estimates of the species’ abundance. The breeding aggregation on the sub-Antarctic island of South Georgia is believed to be larger than all others combined. We estimated the size of this population by calculating the area of suitable habitat and the density of occupied burrows within it. Some 670,000 occupied nests were estimated for the island at mid-incubation, representing 0.9 million pairs of breeding-age birds associated with South Georgia in the survey seasons (2005/06 and 06/07). This is 40–45% of the previous estimate, but still represents well over half of the global population. If the population is declining due to fishery bycatch, as is likely, the scale of annual mortality in this population alone is at least in the high tens of thousands, and plausibly hundreds of thousands.     

Mitigating Seabird Bycatch during Hauling by Pelagic Longline Vessels

Bycatch in longline fisheries threatens the viability of some seabird populations. The Hawaii longline swordfish fishery reduced seabird captures by an order of magnitude primarily through mitigating bycatch during setting. Now, 75% of captures occur during hauling. We fit observer data to a generalized additive regression model with mixed effects to determine the significance of the effect of various factors on the standardized seabird haul catch rate. Density of albatrosses attending vessels during hauling, leader length and year had largest model effects. The standardized haul catch rate significantly increased with increased albatross density during hauling. The standardized catch rate was significantly higher the longer the leader: shorter leaders place weighted swivels closer to hooks, reducing the likelihood of baited hooks becoming available to surface-scavenging albatrosses. There was a significant linear increasing temporal trend in the standardized catch rate, possibly partly due to an observed increasing temporal trend in the local abundance of albatrosses attending vessels during hauling. Swivel weight, Beaufort scale and season were also significant but smaller model effects. Most (81%) haul captures were on branchlines actively being retrieved. Future haul mitigation research should therefore focus on reducing bird access to hooks as crew coil branchlines, including methods identified here of shorter leaders and heavier swivels, and other potentially effective methods, including faster branchline coiling and shielding the area where hooks becomes accessible. The proportion of Laysan albatross (Phoebastria immutabilis) captures that occurred during hauling was significantly, 1.6 times, higher than for black-footed albatrosses (P. nigripes), perhaps due to differences in the time of day of foraging and in daytime scavenging competitiveness; mitigating haul bycatch would therefore be a larger benefit to Laysans. Locally, findings identify opportunities to nearly eliminate seabird bycatch. Globally, findings fill a gap in knowledge of methods to mitigate seabird bycatch during pelagic longline hauling.     

Chewing lice of Procellaria aequinoctialis Linnaeus, 1758 in Brazil with a new host record

The white-chinned petrel (Procellaria aequinoctialis) is a seabird widely distributed in the circumpolar sub-Antarctic islands and subtropical regions, including Brazilian waters. Among the parasites present on the white-chinned petrel are the chewing lice. This seabird is parasitized by 4 known lice species to date. In this study we evaluated the ectoparasites of 2 white-chinned petrels rescued by an animal rehabilitation center in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil and recorded 4 species of chewing lice, of which 3 are already known for this host. One of the species however, has never been recorded in Brazil and another one has never been recorded parasitizing P. aequinoctialis, making this a new host record.     

Differential adult survival at close seabird colonies: The importance of spatial foraging segregation and bycatch risk during the breeding season

Marine megafauna, including seabirds, are critically affected by fisheries bycatch. However, bycatch risk may differ on temporal and spatial scales due to the uneven distribution and effort of fleets operating different fishing gear, and to focal species distribution and foraging behavior. Scopoli's shearwater Calonectris diomedea is a long‐lived seabird that experiences high bycatch rates in longline fisheries and strong population‐level impacts due to this type of anthropogenic mortality. Analyzing a long‐term dataset on individual monitoring, we compared adult survival (by means of multi‐event capture–recapture models) among three close predator‐free Mediterranean colonies of the species. Unexpectedly for a long‐lived organism, adult survival varied among colonies. We explored potential causes of this differential survival by (1) measuring egg volume as a proxy of food availability and parental condition; (2) building a specific longline bycatch risk map for the species; and (3) assessing the distribution patterns of breeding birds from the three study colonies via GPS tracking. Egg volume was very similar between colonies over time, suggesting that environmental variability related to habitat foraging suitability was not the main cause of differential survival. On the other hand, differences in foraging movements among individuals from the three colonies expose them to differential mortality risk, which likely influenced the observed differences in adult survival. The overlap of information obtained by the generation of specific bycatch risk maps, the quantification of population demographic parameters, and the foraging spatial analysis should inform managers about differential sensitivity to the anthropogenic impact at mesoscale level and guide decisions depending on the spatial configuration of local populations. The approach would apply and should be considered in any species where foraging distribution is colony‐specific and mortality risk varies spatially.     

Seabird bycatch in the Southwest Atlantic: interaction with the Uruguayan pelagic longline fishery

This paper analyzes the spatiotemporal variation and the causes of seabird bycatch by the Uruguayan pelagic longline fleet in a region of the Atlantic Ocean where the world’s highest historical rates of seabird bycatch were recorded. The study is based on data obtained by the Uruguayan Observers Program in 29 trips, conducted from 1998 to 2004, totalling about 648,000 hooks. The bird capture per unit of effort (BCPUE) for the studied period was 0.42 birds/1,000 hooks. The highest BCPUE values were recorded in the period May–November. Three zones were identified, with BCPUEs of 2.50 birds/1,000 hooks (very high); 0.78 birds/1,000 hooks (high) and 0.04 birds/1,000 hooks (low). Though these BCPUE values are lower than those historically reported, some are still high in global terms. Night setting was found to be effective in reducing seabird bycatch, but it is necessary to implement additional measures as seabirds have access to bait also by night, especially during the more luminous moon phases.     

Seabird longline bycatch reduction devices increase target catch while reducing bycatch: A meta-analysis

Mortality during commercial fishing activities is a significant threat to many imperiled seabird species, and myriad technologies have been developed to reduce mortality during longline fishing operations. However, individual studies have never been combined in a quantitative manner to determine if seabird bycatch reduction devices (BRD) have a detrimental effect upon target species catch. We performed a meta-analysis of the longline fishery BRD literature to determine the general impact of BRD technology upon commercial fishing operations. There were relatively few papers with data suitable for a meta-analysis (15), therefore we pooled studies in the analysis with BRD and fishery related metrics included as covariates. Overall, we found no reduction in target fish catch. In fact, we found an increase in target catch of 9% (95% CI [1,17]) with BRD use. We show that this increase occurs while BRDs reduce seabird bycatch by 89% (95% CI [82,93]). These patterns do not change with respect to geographic location or BRD type, indicating that efforts to reduce seabird bycatch are generally effective under different conditions. Our review identifies research needed to ensure the generality of our findings and to better understand the impacts of BRD implementation upon seabird conservation and commercial fisheries.     

Bycatch species composition over time by tuna purse-seine fishery in the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean

Within the Ecosystem-based fisheries management framework, we evaluated the changes over time in bycatch species of the European tuna purse-seine fishery operating in the eastern Atlantic Ocean. Bycatch data was collected during two scientific observer programs conducted in the late 1990s and in the late 2000s. Over these two time periods, we compared the temporal trends in bycatch species composition, the probability of occurrence of functional groups per fishing set, the spatio-temporal species richness and the potential impact on several species listed in the red list of the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). The analyses were performed separately on the two main fishing modes of the fleet, i.e. sets on free-swimming school sets and on fish aggregating devices (FADs). Owing data quality constraints, we did not estimate bycatch rates. Ours results showed that the species composition of sharks caught on FADs decreased over time. The total species richness was higher for FAD sets than for free-swimming school sets (87 vs. 61 species respectively), such difference is common between fishing modes worldwide. For the species catalogued as threatened by the IUCN, in free-swimming schools, 25.5 % of the species caught during first period increased to 30.4 % during second period, while for FAD-fishing the increase was from 28.8 % during first period to 34.9 % in second period. Ours findings suggest that tropical tuna purse-seine fisheries should include ecosystem-based governance of bycatch. Effective tuna management will require a combination of technological improvements for mitigating incidental catch of vulnerable species, best use of byproduct species, regulations in fishing practices and in spatial distribution of fishing effort, and international agreements that, together, can monitor and manage bycatch, reducing the negative fishing effects on the epipelagic ecosystem biodiversity.     

Dietary segregation of krill-eating South Georgia seabirds

The diets of six of the main seabird species (two petrels, two albatrosses, two penguins) breeding at Bird Island, South Georgia were studied simultaneously during the chick-rearing period in 1986. For five species, Antarctic krill Euphausia superba was the main food (39–98% by mass); grey-headed albatrosses took mainly the ommastrephid squid Martialia hyadesi (71%) and only 16% krill. The size of the krill taken was similar between seabird species, although there were small but significant differences between penguins and the other species. Sex and reproductive status of krill, however, was different between all seabird species, reflecting some combination of differences in foraging ranges, selectivity by predators, or differences in escape responses of krill. For the krill-eating species, the rest of the diet varied substantially between species, comprising Martialia and nototheniid fish (blackbrowed albatross and, along with lanternfish, white-chinned petrel), lanternfish and amphipods (Antarctic prion and macaroni penguin), and icefish (gentoo penguin). Long-term data on breeding success and information on diet in 5–10 other years suggest that in 1986 seabird diet and reproductive performance was indicative of a year of good availability of krill around South Georgia. In such circumstances, ecological segregation between krill-eating species appears to be maintained chiefly by differences in foraging range and feeding methods, which are reviewed. This situation is rather different from the few studies of seabird communities elsewhere, where prey type and size are believed to be the main mechanisms of dietary segregation.     

Mark-recapture of the endangered franciscana dolphin (Pontoporia blainvillei) killed in gillnet fisheries to estimate past bycatch from time series of stranded carcasses in southern Brazil

Incidental fishery mortality estimates of franciscana based on stranding data are biased downwards, as only a fraction of the total bycatch ends up ashore. We estimated the probability of a franciscana incidentally killed by the coastal gillnet fisheries in southern Brazil to wash ashore and used this as a correction factor to back-calculate fishing related mortality from a dataset of carcasses collected between 1979 and 1998. From November 2005 to January 2009, 145 franciscanas incidentally killed in nets were tagged and returned to the sea. Only 11 of the tagged animals were found during beach surveys. Generalized Linear Models were used to model the probability of a tagged franciscana reaching the shore as a function of the covariates wave period, wind direction and intensity, distance from coast and the target species of the fishery. The target species had a significant effect on the stranding probability. The stranding probability of a tagged franciscana was higher in the fishery targeting white croaker (Micropogonias furnieri) (median = 0.105; 95% CI = 0.05–0.18) rather than weakfish (Cynoscion guatucupa) (0.013; 0.0003–0.069). As the stranding probability estimate for weakfish was imprecise (wide credible interval) we decided to hind cast the number of franciscanas incidentally killed for white croaker season only. The corrected estimate of franciscana mortality was approximately 10 times higher than previous estimates based solely on stranding data. Finally, this novel mark-recapture approach provides a useful correction factor to reduce the bias in incidental mortality estimates derived from stranding data.     

Seabird Bycatch in Pelagic Longline Fisheries Is Grossly Underestimated when Using Only Haul Data

Hundreds of thousands of seabirds are killed each year as bycatch in longline fisheries. Seabirds are predominantly caught during line setting but bycatch is generally recorded during line hauling, many hours after birds are caught. Bird loss during this interval may lead to inaccurate bycatch information. In this 15 year study, seabird bycatch was recorded during both line setting and line hauling from four fishing regions: Indian Ocean, Southern Ocean, Coral Sea and central Pacific Ocean. Over 43,000 albatrosses, petrels and skuas representing over 25 species were counted during line setting of which almost 6,000 seabirds attempted to take the bait. Bait-taking interactions were placed into one of four categories. (i) The majority (57%) of bait-taking attempts were “unsuccessful” involving seabirds that did not take the bait nor get caught or hooked. (ii) One-third of attempts were “successful” with seabirds removing the bait while not getting caught. (iii) One-hundred and seventy-six seabirds (3% of attempts) were observed being “caught” during line setting, with three albatross species – Laysan (Phoebastria immutabilis), black-footed (P. nigripes) and black-browed (Thalassarche melanophrys)– dominating this category. However, of these, only 85 (48%) seabird carcasses were retrieved during line hauling. Most caught seabirds were hooked through the bill. (iv) The remainder of seabird-bait interactions (7%) was not clearly observed, but likely involved more “caught” seabirds. Bait taking attempts and percentage outcome (e.g. successful, caught) varied between seabird species and was not always related to species abundance around fishing vessels. Using only haul data to calculate seabird bycatch grossly underestimates actual bycatch levels, with the level of seabird bycatch from pelagic longline fishing possibly double what was previously thought.     

Homing in pelagic birds: a pilot experiment with white-chinned petrels released in the open sea

During the breeding period white-chinned petrels (Procellaria aequinoctialis) repeatedly perform long foraging trips in the open ocean from their breeding island, and are able to home with an astonishing precision. The orientation mechanisms involved are not yet known. By analogy with those used by desert ants moving in a similarly "featureless" environment, one can hypothesise that petrels may home using path-integration. We displaced 11 white-chinned petrels 725-785km from their burrows to the open sea, preventing them from using visual and magnetic route-based information. Three birds carried satellite transmitters. Our results showed that they can home rather efficiently in such conditions.     

Refining Tori lines to further reduce seabird mortality associated with demersal trawlers in the South Atlantic

Fisheries-related mortality of globally threatened albatrosses and petrels in the Falkland Islands is largely attributed to collisions with warp cables on stern trawlers. Following the introduction Tori lines, also known as bird-scaring lines, in 2004, incidental mortality has been substantially reduced. However, there is still a requirement for further development and optimisation of mitigation methods. In this paper, we present results of sea trials to compare the efficacy of a modified Tori line design with the initial (2004) design. The modified design resulted in 28 and 33% fewer warp contacts than the 2004 design for all species, and high-risk species (black-browed albatross and giant petrels), respectively. Surprisingly, these differences were not found to be statistically significant. However, the modified design was more effective at reducing interactions with the Tori lines themselves. The modified design provided better coverage and protection of the warps, particularly in crosswinds, and was safer for the crew to use. Our study highlights the importance of continued research and development in the field of bycatch mitigation and has relevance for trawl fisheries globally.     

The distribution and abundance of white-chinned petrels (Procellaria aequinoctialis) breeding at the sub-Antarctic Prince Edward Islands

The white-chinned petrel (Procellaria aequinoctialis) is the seabird most often killed on longlines in the Southern Ocean and is listed as vulnerable to extinction. We estimated the population breeding at the Prince Edward Islands, the last breeding site for the nominate subspecies that lacks a recent population estimate. White-chinned petrel burrows are largely confined to deep, muddy soils, usually on slopes below 200?m, but locally up to 420?m. After correcting for count bias, Marion Island has an estimated 29,900 nests (95?% CI 27,700–32,400). Burrow occupancy rates at the start of the incubation period were 65?% during one-off surveys, but repeat surveys found that at least 73?% of burrows were occupied and 87?% of burrows showed signs of occupancy. This suggests that there were roughly 24,000 occupied nests on Marion Island (95?% CI 20,000–28,000). A more cursory survey on Prince Edward Island yielded 14,700 burrows, suggesting that there are 9,000–15,000 occupied nests. The nominate subspecies of white-chinned petrel occupies approximately 974,200 nests (95?% CI 678,000–1,286,000), with the Prince Edward Islands, the third most important breeding site, after South Georgia and Kerguelen. Assuming that populations breeding at islands in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans winter in different regions, the impact of fishery bycatch is likely to have had a greater impact on the Indian Ocean population. The Marion Island survey provides a baseline against which future population changes can be assessed.     

The use of acoustics to monitor burrow-nesting white-chinned petrels Procellaria aequinoctialis at Bird Island, South Georgia

Tape recordings of two types of vocalisations were used to assess burrow occupancy by white-chinned petrels (Procellaria aequinoctialis) at South Georgia. Birds responded to the rattle call on 74% of occasions and a wheezy call on 85%, with only 10% failing to respond to both calls played one after the other. Occupancy was determined throughout the pre-egg and incubation period and results confirmed what is known about patterns of occupancy by white-chinned petrels. Adults in burrows known to hatch a chick responded on average to 69% of recordings during incubation and less than 10% in only 4% of burrows. Significant inter-site and inter-annual variations in occupancy were recorded, suggesting that this method is sensitive to changes in the number of petrels returning to breed. A sampling protocol for providing population indices for monitoring purposes is recommended. Accepted: 6 March 2000     

Characteristics of Fishing Operations,Environment and Life History Contributing to Small Cetacean Bycatch in the Northeast Atlantic

Fisheries bycatch is a key threat to cetacean species globally. Managing the impact requires an understanding of the conditions under which animals are caught and the sections of the population affected. We used observer data collected on an albacore tuna gillnet fishery in the northeast Atlantic, to assess operational and environmental factors contributing to bycatch of common and striped dolphins, using generalised linear models and model averaging. Life history demographics of the captured animals were also investigated. In both species, young males dominated the catch. The age ratio of common dolphins was significantly different from that estimated for the population in the region, based on life tables (G = 17.1, d.f. = 2, p = 0.002). Skewed age and sex ratios may reflect varying vulnerability to capture, through differences in behaviour or segregation in populations. Adult females constituted the second largest portion of the bycatch for both species, with potential consequences for population sustainability. Depth was the most important parameter influencing bycatch of both species and reflected what is known about common and striped dolphin habitat use in the region as the probability of catching common dolphins decreased, and striped dolphins increased, with increasing depth. Striped dolphin capture was similarly influenced by the extent to which operations were conducted in daylight, with the probability of capture increasing with increased operations in the pre-sunset and post-sunrise period, potentially driven by increased ability of observers to record animals during daylight operations, or by diurnal movements increasing contact with the fishery. Effort, based on net length and soak time, had little influence on the probability of capturing either species. Our results illustrate the importance of assessing the demographic of the animals captured during observer programmes and, perhaps more importantly, suggest that effort restrictions alone may not be sufficient to eradicate bycatch in areas where driftnets and small cetaceans co-occur.     

Combined impacts of longline fisheries and climate on the persistence of the Amsterdam Albatross Diomedia amsterdamensis

Incidental capture of seabirds in longline fishing gear is a central issue in the conservation of many long-lived marine species. Despite growing evidence of climate-induced effects on population trends of long-lived species, climate change remains generally overlooked in most risk assessments of seabirds. Because variation in climate may interact with the detrimental effects of bycatch, considering climate is of great importance, especially in the context of ongoing global warming. This paper examines the combined effects of bycatch and climate change on the persistence of one of the world's rarest birds, the Amsterdam Albatross Diomedea amsterdamensis , which has a single population in the upland plateau of Amsterdam Island (Southeast Indian Ocean). Using continuous monitoring from 1983 onwards, we first estimated the relationship between climate and the species' demographic parameters. We then built a stochastic matrix population model to estimate the population growth rate and the probability that the population declines below the level recorded in 1983 of nine breeding pairs under different scenarios involving the joint effects of additional mortality caused by longline fisheries and climate change. The results suggest that the demography of the Amsterdam Albatross is influenced by climate in both breeding and wintering grounds and that these relationships may to some extent compensate for the impact of additive bycatch mortality. However, these compensatory effects would be negligible if the annual additional mortality exceeds around six individuals per year, suggesting that the resumption of longline fishery in the foraging range of the Amsterdam Albatross would rapidly put this species at risk of extinction.