Differences in the selection response of serially repeated color pattern characters: Standing variation,development, and evolution

Background  

There is spectacular morphological diversity in nature but lineages typically display a limited range of phenotypes. Because developmental processes generate the phenotypic variation that fuels natural selection, they are a likely source of evolutionary biases, facilitating some changes and limiting others. Although shifts in developmental regulation are associated with morphological differences between taxa, it is unclear how underlying mechanisms affect the rate and direction of evolutionary change within populations under selection.     

How do genetic correlations affect species range shifts in a changing environment?

Species may be able to respond to changing environments by a combination of adaptation and migration. We study how adaptation affects range shifts when it involves multiple quantitative traits evolving in response to local selection pressures and gene flow. All traits develop clines shifting in space, some of which may be in a direction opposite to univariate predictions, and the species tracks its environmental optimum with a constant lag. We provide analytical expressions for the local density and average trait values. A species can sustain faster environmental shifts, develop a wider range and greater local adaptation when spatial environmental variation is low (generating low migration load) and multitrait adaptive potential is high. These conditions are favoured when nonlinear (stabilising) selection is weak in the phenotypic direction of the change in optimum, and genetic variation is high in the phenotypic direction of the selection gradient.     

The mechanism of background extinction

Following publication of On the Origin of Species, biologists concentrated on and resolved the mechanisms of adaptation and speciation, but largely ignored extinction. Thus, extinction remained essentially a discipline of palaeontology. Adequate language is not available to describe extinction phenomena because they must be discussed in the passive voice, wherein populations simply ‘go extinct’ without reference to process, specifics, effects, or causality. Extinction is also described typically in terms of its dynamics (including rate or risk), and although correlative variables enhance our ability to predict extinction, they do not necessarily enable an understanding of process. Yet background extinction, like evolution, is a process requiring a functional explanation, without which it is impossible to formulate mechanisms. We define the mechanism of background extinction as a typically long‐term, multi‐generational loss of reproductive fitness. This simple concept has received little credence because of a perception that excess generation of progeny ensures population sustainability, and perhaps the misconception that the loss of reproductive fitness somehow constitutes selection against reproduction itself. During environmental shifts, reproductive fitness is compromised when biotic or abiotic extremes consistently exceed existing norms of reaction. Subsequent selection will now favour individual survival over reproductive fitness, initiating long‐term negative selection pressure and population decline. Background extinction consists typically of two intergrading phases: habitat attenuation and habitat dissolution. These processes generate the relict populations that characterize many species undergoing background extinction. © 2011 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2012, 105 , 255–268.     

Population responses to anthropogenic disturbance: lessons from three‐spined sticklebacks Gasterosteus aculeatus in eutrophic habitats

Human‐induced environmental changes differ from most natural changes in which they happen at a faster rate and require quicker responses from populations. The first response of populations is usually phenotypically plastic alterations of morphology, physiology and behaviour. This plasticity can be favourable and move the population closer to an adaptive peak in the altered environment and, hence, maintain a viable population, or be maladaptive and move the population further from the peak and increase the risk of extinction. The radiation of the three‐spined stickleback Gasterosteus aculeatus from the ocean to different freshwater habitats has provided much information on adaptation to new environmental conditions. Currently, human‐induced eutrophication is changing the breeding areas of these fish, which creates a model system for investigation of responses to rapid environmental disturbance. Results show that a primary reaction is plastic alterations of behaviour, with some adjustments being adaptive while others are not. At the same time, the strength of sexual selection on several traits is relaxed, which could increase the relative importance of survival selection. Whether this will restore population viability depends on the amount of standing genetic variation in the right direction. Human disturbances can be dramatic and resolution of the limit of flexibility and the possibility of genetic adaptation should be important targets of future research.     

The spatial patterns of directional phenotypic selection

Local adaptation, adaptive population divergence and speciation are often expected to result from populations evolving in response to spatial variation in selection. Yet, we lack a comprehensive understanding of the major features that characterise the spatial patterns of selection, namely the extent of variation among populations in the strength and direction of selection. Here, we analyse a data set of spatially replicated studies of directional phenotypic selection from natural populations. The data set includes 60 studies, consisting of 3937 estimates of selection across an average of five populations. We performed meta‐analyses to explore features characterising spatial variation in directional selection. We found that selection tends to vary mainly in strength and less in direction among populations. Although differences in the direction of selection occur among populations they do so where selection is often weakest, which may limit the potential for ongoing adaptive population divergence. Overall, we also found that spatial variation in selection appears comparable to temporal (annual) variation in selection within populations; however, several deficiencies in available data currently complicate this comparison. We discuss future research needs to further advance our understanding of spatial variation in selection.     

FORAGING TRAIT (CO)VARIANCES IN STICKLEBACK EVOLVE DETERMINISTICALLY AND DO NOT PREDICT TRAJECTORIES OF ADAPTIVE DIVERSIFICATION

How does natural selection shape the structure of variance and covariance among multiple traits, and how do (co)variances influence trajectories of adaptive diversification? We investigate these pivotal but open questions by comparing phenotypic (co)variances among multiple morphological traits across 18 derived lake‐dwelling populations of threespine stickleback, and their marine ancestor. Divergence in (co)variance structure among populations is striking and primarily attributable to shifts in the variance of a single key foraging trait (gill raker length). We then relate this divergence to an ecological selection proxy, to population divergence in trait means, and to the magnitude of sexual dimorphism within populations. This allows us to infer that evolution in (co)variances is linked to variation among habitats in the strength of resource‐mediated disruptive selection. We further find that adaptive diversification in trait means among populations has primarily involved shifts in gill raker length. The direction of evolutionary trajectories is unrelated to the major axes of ancestral trait (co)variance. Our study demonstrates that natural selection drives both means and (co)variances deterministically in stickleback, and strongly challenges the view that the (co)variance structure biases the direction of adaptive diversification predictably even over moderate time spans.     

EVOLUTION AND EXTINCTION IN A CHANGING ENVIRONMENT: A QUANTITATIVE-GENETIC ANALYSIS

Because of the ubiquity of genetic variation for quantitative traits, virtually all populations have some capacity to respond evolutionarily to selective challenges. However, natural selection imposes demographic costs on a population, and if these costs are sufficiently large, the likelihood of extinction will be high. We consider how the mean time to extinction depends on selective pressures (rate and stochasticity of environmental change, and strength of selection), population parameters (carrying capacity, and reproductive capacity), and genetics (rate of polygenic mutation). We assume that in a randomly mating, finite population subject to density-dependent population growth, individual fitness is determined by a single quantitative-genetic character under Gaussian stabilizing selection with the optimum phenotype exhibiting directional change, or random fluctuations, or both. The quantitative trait is determined by a finite number of freely recombining, mutationally equivalent, additive loci. The dynamics of evolution and extinction are investigated, assuming that the population is initially under mutation-selection-drift balance. Under this model, in a directionally changing environment, the mean phenotype lags behind the optimum, but on the average evolves parallel to it. The magnitude of the lag determines the vulnerability to extinction. In finite populations, stochastic variation in the genetic variance can be quite pronounced, and bottlenecks in the genetic variance temporarily can impair the population's adaptive capacity enough to cause extinction when it would otherwise be unlikely in an effectively infinite population. We find that maximum sustainable rates of evolution or, equivalently, critical rates of environmental change, may be considerably less than 10% of a phenotypic standard deviation per generation.     

Conservation genetics of population bottlenecks: the role of chance,selection, and history

Conservation genetics studies of populations bottlenecks are commonly framed under the detrimental paradigm of inbreeding depression. This conceptual paradigm presupposes a direct and unambiguous relationship between population size, genetic diversity, fitness, and extinction. Here, I review a series of studies that emphasize the role of chance, selection, and history in determining the genetic consequences of population bottlenecks. The variable responses of bottlenecks to fitness, phenotypic variation, and heritable variation emphasize the necessity to explore the relationship between molecular genetic diversity, fitness, adaptive genetic diversity, and extinction beyond the detrimental paradigm of inbreeding depression. Implications for conservation and management are presented as guidelines and testable predictions regarding the potential effects of bottlenecks on population viability and extinction.     

Survivability is more fundamental than evolvability

For a lineage to survive over long time periods, it must sometimes change. This has given rise to the term evolvability, meaning the tendency to produce adaptive variation. One lineage may be superior to another in terms of its current standing variation, or it may tend to produce more adaptive variation. However, evolutionary outcomes depend on more than standing variation and produced adaptive variation: deleterious variation also matters. Evolvability, as most commonly interpreted, is not predictive of evolutionary outcomes. Here, we define a predictive measure of the evolutionary success of a lineage that we call the k-survivability, defined as the probability that the lineage avoids extinction for k generations. We estimate the k-survivability using multiple experimental replicates. Because we measure evolutionary outcomes, the initial standing variation, the full spectrum of generated variation, and the heritability of that variation are all incorporated. Survivability also accounts for the decreased joint likelihood of extinction of sub-lineages when they 1) disperse in space, or 2) diversify in lifestyle. We illustrate measurement of survivability with in silico models, and suggest that it may also be measured in vivo using multiple longitudinal replicates. The k-survivability is a metric that enables the quantitative study of, for example, the evolution of 1) mutation rates, 2) dispersal mechanisms, 3) the genotype-phenotype map, and 4) sexual reproduction, in temporally and spatially fluctuating environments. Although these disparate phenomena evolve by well-understood microevolutionary rules, they are also subject to the macroevolutionary constraint of long-term survivability.     

Association between integration structure and functional evolution in the opercular four‐bar apparatus of the threespine stickleback,Gasterosteus aculeatus (Pisces: Gasterosteidae)

Phenotypes may evolve to become integrated in response to functional demands. Once evolved, integrated phenotypes, often modular, can also influence the trajectory of subsequent responses to selection. Clearly, connecting modularity and functionally adaptive evolution has been challenging. The teleost skull and jaw structures are useful for understanding this connection because of the key roles that these structures play in feeding in novel environments with different prey resources. In the present study, we examined such a structure in the threespine stickleback: the opercular four‐bar lever that functions in jaw opening. Comparing oceanic and two fresh‐water populations, we find marked phenotypic divergence in the skull opercular region, and the major axes of morphological and functional variation of the lever are found to be highly correlated. All three populations share the same global skull integration structure, and a conserved, strongly‐supported modular organization is evident in the region encompassing the lever. Importantly, a boundary between two modules that subdivides the lever apparatus corresponds to the region of most prominent morphological evolution. The matched modular phenotypic and functional architecture of head and jaw structures of stickleback therefore may be important for facilitating their rapid adaptive transitions between highly divergent habitats. © 2013 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2014, 111 , 375–390.     

Pollinators exert positive selection on flower size on urban,but not on rural Scotch broom (Cytisus scoparius L. Link)

Aims Adaptive evolution of invasive species is both particularly exciting for the evolutionary biologist and worrisome for those interested in controlling or halting spread. Invasive species often have a distinct timeline and well-recorded population expansion. As invaders encounter new environments, they undergo rapid adaptive evolution. Our aim in this study was to measure variation of floral size in the invasive shrub Cytisus scoparius (Scotch broom) and measure natural selection by pollinators on that trait. Past research has found that this invasive plant is pollinator limited in Washington State and that declines in pollinator populations can contribute to local extinction in another invaded range (New Zealand). This plant is pollinated by both native and introduced species of bees, representing a broad range of pollinator sizes. Cytisus scoparius has a flower structure that is highly conducive to studies on pollinator choice, even in the absence of direct pollinator observations.Methods We surveyed urban and rural sites in and around the city of Olympia in Washington State. Measuring banner width, we were able to show that flower size varies substantially between plants but minimally within plants. By measuring the proportion of flowers that were 'tripped', we could determine pollinator visitation rates and thus determine the level of selection due to pollinator choice alone.Important findings We found that C. scoparius is under natural selection by pollinators for increased flower size. However, such positive natural selection was only seen in urban populations although it was consistent across two flowering seasons. Rural populations of Scotch broom do not appear to be under selection on flower size. The natural selection by pollinators on broom flowers could result in adaptive evolution into a new pollination niche by an invading species. A higher level of variation in broom flowers seen here than seen in previous works in native regions suggests that C. scoparius may be highly diverse and primed for adaptive evolution.     

Testing limits to adaptation along altitudinal gradients in rainforest Drosophila

Given that evolution can generate rapid and dramatic shifts in the ecological tolerance of a species, what prevents populations adapting to expand into new habitat at the edge of their distributions? Recent population genetic models have focused on the relative costs and benefits of migration between populations. On the one hand, migration may limit adaptive divergence by preventing local populations from matching their local selective optima. On the other hand, migration may also contribute to the genetic variance necessary to allow populations to track these changing optima. Empirical evidence for these contrasting effects of gene flow in natural situations are lacking, largely because it remains difficult to acquire. Here, we develop a way to explore theoretical models by estimating genetic divergence in traits that confer stress resistance along similar ecological gradients in rainforest Drosophila. This approach allows testing for the coupling of clinal divergence with local density, and the effects of genetic variance and the rate of change of the optimum on the response to selection. In support of a swamping effect of migration on phenotypic divergence, our data show no evidence for a cline in stress-related traits where the altitudinal gradient is steep, but significant clinal divergence where it is shallow. However, where clinal divergence is detected, sites showing trait means closer to the presumed local optimum have more genetic variation than sites with trait means distant from their local optimum. This pattern suggests that gene flow also aids a sustained response to selection.     

Phenotypic integration and independence: Hormones, performance, and response to environmental change

Hormones coordinate the co-expression of behavioral, physiological, and morphological traits, giving rise to correlations among traits and organisms whose parts work well together. This article considers the implications of these hormonal correlations with respect to the evolution of hormone-mediated traits. Such traits can evolve owing to changes in hormone secretion, hormonal affinity for carrier proteins, rates of degradation and conversion, and interaction with target tissues to name a few. Critically, however, we know very little about whether these changes occur independently or in tandem, and thus whether hormones promote the evolution of tight phenotypic integration or readily allow the parts of the phenotype to evolve independently. For example, when selection favors a change in expression of hormonally mediated characters, is that alteration likely to come about through changes in hormone secretion (signal strength), changes in response to a fixed level of secretion (sensitivity of target tissues), or both? At one extreme, if the phenotype is tightly integrated and only the signal responds via selection's action on one or more hormonally mediated traits, adaptive modification may be constrained by past selection for phenotypic integration. Alternatively, response to selection may be facilitated if multivariate selection favors new combinations that can be easily achieved by a change in signal strength. On the other hand, if individual target tissues readily "unplug" from a hormone signal in response to selection, then the phenotype may be seen as a loose confederation that responds on a trait-by-trait basis, easily allowing adaptive modification, although perhaps more slowly than if signal variation were the primary mode of evolutionary response. Studies reviewed here and questions for future research address the relative importance of integration and independence by comparing sexes, individuals, and populations. Most attention is devoted to the hormone testosterone (T) and a songbird species, the dark-eyed junco (Junco hyemalis).     

The Effect of Adaptive Mutagenesis on Genetic Variation at a Linked, Neutral Locus

Based on recent studies in single-celled organisms, it has been argued that a fitness benefit associated with a mutation will increase the probability of that mutation occurring. This increase is independent of mutation rates at other loci and is called adaptive mutagenesis. We modeled the effect of adaptive mutagenesis on populations of haploid organisms with adaptive mutation rates ranging from 0 to 1 X 10(-5). Allele frequencies at the selected locus and a neutral linked locus were tracked. We also observed the amount of linkage disequilibrium during the selective sweep and the final heterozygosity after the sweep. The presence of adaptive mutagenesis increases the number of genetic backgrounds carrying the new fitter allele, making the outcomes more representative of the population before the selection. Therefore, more neutral genetic variation is preserved in simulations with adaptive mutagenesis than in those without it due to hitchhiking. Since adaptive mutagenesis is time-dependent, it can generate mutants when other mechanisms of mutation cannot. In addition, adaptive mutagenesis has the potential to confound both phylogeny construction and the detection of natural selection from patterns of nucleotide variation.     

Interplay between extreme drift and selection intensities favors the fixation of beneficial mutations in selfing maize populations

Population and quantitative genetic models provide useful approximations to predict long-term selection responses sustaining phenotypic shifts, and underlying multilocus adaptive dynamics. Valid across a broad range of parameters, their use for understanding the adaptive dynamics of small selfing populations undergoing strong selection intensity (thereafter High Drift-High selection regime, HDHS) remains to be explored. Saclay Divergent Selection Experiments (DSEs) on maize flowering time provide an interesting example of populations evolving under HDHS, with significant selection responses over 20 generations in two directions. We combined experimental data from Saclay DSEs, forward individual-based simulations, and theoretical predictions to dissect the evolutionary mechanisms at play in the observed selection responses. We asked two main questions: How do mutations arise, spread, and reach fixation in populations evolving under HDHS? How does the interplay between drift and selection influence observed phenotypic shifts? We showed that the long-lasting response to selection in small populations is due to the rapid fixation of mutations occurring during the generations of selection. Among fixed mutations, we also found a clear signal of enrichment for beneficial mutations revealing a limited cost of selection. Both environmental stochasticity and variation in selection coefficients likely contributed to exacerbate mutational effects, thereby facilitating selection grasp and fixation of small-effect mutations. Together our results highlight that despite a small number of polymorphic loci expected under HDHS, adaptive variation is continuously fueled by a vast mutational target. We discuss our results in the context of breeding and long-term survival of small selfing populations.     

Population size,habitat fragmentation,and the nature of adaptive variation in a stream fish

Whether and how habitat fragmentation and population size jointly affect adaptive genetic variation and adaptive population differentiation are largely unexplored. Owing to pronounced genetic drift, small, fragmented populations are thought to exhibit reduced adaptive genetic variation relative to large populations. Yet fragmentation is known to increase variability within and among habitats as population size decreases. Such variability might instead favour the maintenance of adaptive polymorphisms and/or generate more variability in adaptive differentiation at smaller population size. We investigated these alternative hypotheses by analysing coding-gene, single-nucleotide polymorphisms associated with different biological functions in fragmented brook trout populations of variable sizes. Putative adaptive differentiation was greater between small and large populations or among small populations than among large populations. These trends were stronger for genetic population size measures than demographic ones and were present despite pronounced drift in small populations. Our results suggest that fragmentation affects natural selection and that the changes elicited in the adaptive genetic composition and differentiation of fragmented populations vary with population size. By generating more variable evolutionary responses, the alteration of selective pressures during habitat fragmentation may affect future population persistence independently of, and perhaps long before, the effects of demographic and genetic stochasticity are manifest.     

Mutation accumulation in selfing populations under fluctuating selection

Selfing species are prone to extinction, possibly because highly selfing populations can suffer from a continuous accumulation of deleterious mutations, a process analogous to Muller's ratchet in asexual populations. However, current theory provides little insight into which types of genes are most likely to accumulate deleterious alleles and what environmental circumstances may accelerate genomic degradation. Here, we investigate temporal changes in the environment that cause fluctuations in the strength of purifying selection. We simulate selfing populations with genomes containing a mixture of loci experiencing constant selection and loci experiencing selection that fluctuates in strength (but not direction). Even when both types of loci experience the same average strength of selection, loci under fluctuating selection contribute disproportionately more to deleterious mutation accumulation. Moreover, the presence of loci experiencing fluctuating selection in the genome increases the deleterious fixation rate at loci under constant selection; under most realistic scenarios, this effect of linked selection can be attributed to a reduction in N_e. Fluctuating selection is particularly injurious when selective environments are strongly autocorrelated over time and when selection is concentrated into rare bouts of strong selection. These results imply that loci under fluctuating selection are likely important drivers of extinction in selfing species.     

Rapid increase in southern elephant seal genetic diversity after a founder event

Genetic diversity provides the raw material for populations to respond to changing environmental conditions. The evolution of diversity within populations is based on the accumulation of mutations and their retention or loss through selection and genetic drift, while migration can also introduce new variation. However, the extent to which population growth and sustained large population size can lead to rapid and significant increases in diversity has not been widely investigated. Here, we assess this empirically by applying approximate Bayesian computation to a novel ancient DNA dataset that spans the life of a southern elephant seal (Mirounga leonina) population, from initial founding approximately 7000 years ago to eventual extinction within the past millennium. We find that rapid population growth and sustained large population size can explain substantial increases in population genetic diversity over a period of several hundred generations, subsequently lost when the population went to extinction. Results suggest that the impact of diversity introduced through migration was relatively minor. We thus demonstrate, by examining genetic diversity across the life of a population, that environmental change could generate the raw material for adaptive evolution over a very short evolutionary time scale through rapid establishment of a large, stable population.     

Sex‐specific responses of phenotypic diversity to environmental variation

Identifying the factors generating ecomorphological diversity within species can provide a window into the nascent stages of ecological radiation. Sexual dimorphism is an obvious axis of intraspecific morphological diversity that could affect how environmental variation leads to ecological divergence among populations. In this paper we test for sex‐specific responses in how environmental variation generates phenotypic diversity within species, using the generalist lizard Gallotia galloti on Tenerife (Canary Islands). We evaluate two hypotheses: the first proposes that different environments have different phenotypic optima, leading to shifts in the positions of populations in morphospace between environments; the second posits that the strength of trait‐filtering differs between environments, predicting changes in the volume of morphospace occupied by populations in different environments. We found that intraspecific morphological diversity, provided it is adaptive, arises from both shifts in populations’ position in morphospace and differences in the strength of environmental filtering among environments, especially at high elevations. However, effects were found only in males; morphological diversity of females responded little to environmental variation. These results within G. galloti suggest natural selection is not the sole source of phenotypic diversity across environments, but rather that variation in the strength of, or response to, sexual selection may play an important role in generating morphological diversity in environmentally diverse settings. More generally, disparities in trait–environment relationships among males and females also suggest that ignoring sex differences in studies of trait dispersion and clustering may produce misleading inferences.