Can the emergence of pine Diplodia shoot blight in France be explained by changes in pathogen pressure linked to climate change?

Sphaeropsis shoot blight, caused by Diplodia pinea and Diplodia scrobiculata, damage conifers throughout the world. In France, the first disease outbreaks were reported during the 1990s. The factors associated with the pathogen presence in stands and the relationship between pathogen and disease distributions were analysed in order to understand the Sphaeropsis emergence. Eighty‐two stands of Pinus nigra, Pinus sylvestris, Pinus pinaster and Pinus radiata were visited. Cones were collected on the ground to assess the pathogen frequency. Diplodia spp were isolated and determined by a species‐specific PCR test. The role of potential explaining factors of D. pinea prevalence on cones was analysed by logistic regression. D. pinea was the dominant species in visited stands. The main factors influencing the pathogen presence selected in the models were host species (the pathogen being less frequent on P. pinaster than on P. nigra and P. sylvestris cones), winter temperature and summer rain, which were both positively correlated with cone colonization. The climate became more favourable to D. pinea presence within the last 15 years compared with the previous 30‐year period. By contrast, future climatic changes over the next 40 years should have far less impact on the pathogen presence.     

Rainfall and temperatures changes have confounding impacts on Phytophthora cinnamomi occurrence risk in the southwestern USA under climate change scenarios

Global change will simultaneously impact many aspects of climate, with the potential to exacerbate the risks posed by plant pathogens to agriculture and the natural environment; yet, most studies that explore climate impacts on plant pathogen ranges consider individual climatic factors separately. In this study, we adopt a stochastic modeling approach to address multiple pathways by which climate can constrain the range of the generalist plant pathogen Phytophthora cinnamomi (Pc): through changing winter soil temperatures affecting pathogen survival; spring soil temperatures and thus pathogen metabolic rates; and changing spring soil moisture conditions and thus pathogen growth rates through host root systems. We apply this model to the southwestern USA for contemporary and plausible future climate scenarios and evaluate the changes in the potential range of Pc. The results indicate that the plausible range of this pathogen in the southwestern USA extends over approximately 200 000 km² under contemporary conditions. While warming temperatures as projected by the IPCC A2 and B1 emissions scenarios greatly expand the range over which the pathogen can survive winter, projected reductions in spring rainfall reduce its feasible habitat, leading to spatially complex patterns of changing risk. The study demonstrates that temperature and rainfall changes associated with possible climate futures in the southwestern USA have confounding impacts on the range of Pc, suggesting that projections of future pathogen dynamics and ranges should account for multiple pathways of climate–pathogen interaction.     

Early response of the platypus to climate warming

Combining a climatic envelope modelling technique with more than two centuries (1800–2009) of distribution records has revealed the effects of a changing climate on the egg‐laying monotreme, the platypus, Ornithorhynchus anatinus. We show that the main factor associated with platypus occurrence switched from aquatic habitat availability (estimated by rainfall) to thermal tolerances (estimated by annual maximum temperature) in the 1960s. This correlates directly with the change in the annual maximum temperature anomaly from cooler to warmer conditions in southeastern Australia. Modelling of platypus habitat under emission scenarios (A1B, A2, B1 and B2) revealed large decreases (>30%) in thermally suitable habitat by 2070. This reduction, compounded by increasing demands for water for agriculture and potable use, suggests that there is real cause for concern over the future status of this species, and highlights the need for restoration of thermal refugia within the platypus’ modelled range.     

Modelling changes in VOC emission in response to climate change in the continental United States

The alteration of climate is driven not only by anthropogenic activities, but also by biosphere processes that change in conjunction with climate. Emission of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) from vegetation may be particularly sensitive to changes in climate and may play an important role in climate forcing through their influence on the atmospheric oxidative balance, greenhouse gas concentration, and the formation of aerosols. Using the VEMAP vegetation database and associated vegetation responses to climate change, this study examined the independent and combined effects of simulated changes in temperature, CO₂ concentration, and vegetation distribution on annual emissions of isoprene, monoterpenes, and other reactive VOCs (ORVOCs) from potential vegetation of the continental United States. Temperature effects were modelled according to the direct influence of temperature on enzymatic isoprene production and the vapour pressure of monoterpenes and ORVOCs. The effect of elevated CO₂ concentration was modelled according to increases in foliar biomass per unit of emitting surface area. The effects of vegetation distribution reflects simulated changes in species spatial distribution and areal coverage by 21 different vegetation classes. Simulated climate warming associated with a doubled atmospheric CO₂ concentration enhanced total modelled VOC emission by 81.8% (isoprene + 82.1%, monoterpenes + 81.6%, ORVOC + 81.1%), whereas a simulated doubled CO₂ alone enhanced total modelled VOC emission by only + 11.8% (isoprene + 13.7%, monoterpenes + 4.1%, ORVOC + 11.7%). A simulated redistribution of vegetation in response to altered temperatures and precipitation patterns caused total modelled VOC emission to decline by 10.4% (isoprene – 11.7%, monoterpenes – 18.6%, ORVOC 0.0%) driven by a decline in area covered by vegetation classes emitting VOCs at high rates. Thus, the positive effect of leaf-level adjustments to elevated CO₂ (i.e. increases in foliar biomass) is balanced by the negative effect of ecosystem-level adjustments to climate (i.e. decreases in areal coverage of species emitting VOC at high rates).     

Modeled ecohydrological responses to climate change at seven small watersheds in the northeastern United States

A cross‐site analysis was conducted on seven diverse, forested watersheds in the northeastern United States to evaluate hydrological responses (evapotranspiration, soil moisture, seasonal and annual streamflow, and water stress) to projections of future climate. We used output from four atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs; CCSM4, HadGEM2‐CC, MIROC5, and MRI‐CGCM3) included in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, coupled with two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 8.5 and 4.5). The coarse resolution AOGCMs outputs were statistically downscaled using an asynchronous regional regression model to provide finer resolution future climate projections as inputs to the deterministic dynamic ecosystem model PnET‐BGC. Simulation results indicated that projected warmer temperatures and longer growing seasons in the northeastern United States are anticipated to increase evapotranspiration across all sites, although invoking CO₂ effects on vegetation (growth enhancement and increases in water use efficiency (WUE)) diminish this response. The model showed enhanced evapotranspiration resulted in drier growing season conditions across all sites and all scenarios in the future. Spruce‐fir conifer forests have a lower optimum temperature for photosynthesis, making them more susceptible to temperature stress than more tolerant hardwood species, potentially giving hardwoods a competitive advantage in the future. However, some hardwood forests are projected to experience seasonal water stress, despite anticipated increases in precipitation, due to the higher temperatures, earlier loss of snow packs, longer growing seasons, and associated water deficits. Considering future CO₂ effects on WUE in the model alleviated water stress across all sites. Modeled streamflow responses were highly variable, with some sites showing significant increases in annual water yield, while others showed decreases. This variability in streamflow responses poses a challenge to water resource management in the northeastern United States. Our analyses suggest that dominant vegetation type and soil type are important attributes in determining future hydrological responses to climate change.     

Climate change is predicted to alter the current pest status of Globodera pallida and G. rostochiensis in the United Kingdom

The potato cyst nematodes Globodera pallida and G. rostochiensis are economically important plant pathogens causing losses to UK potato harvests estimated at £50 m/ year. Implications of climate change on their future pest status have not been fully considered. Here, we report growth of female G. pallida and G. rostochiensis over the range 15 to 25°C. Females per plant and their fecundity declined progressively with temperatures above 17.5°C for G. pallida, whilst females per plant were optimal between 17.5 and 22.5°C for G. rostochiensis. Relative reproductive success with temperature was confirmed on two potato cultivars infected with either species at 15, 22.5 and 25°C. The reduced reproductive success of G. pallida at 22.5°C relative to 15°C was also recorded for a further seven host cultivars studied. The differences in optimal temperatures for reproductive success may relate to known differences in the altitude of their regions of origin in the Andes. Exposure of G. pallida to a diurnal temperature stress for one week during female growth significantly suppressed subsequent growth for one week at 17.5°C but had no effect on G. rostochiensis. However, after two weeks of recovery, female size was not significantly different from that for the control treatment. Future soil temperatures were simulated for medium‐ and high‐emission scenarios and combined with nematode growth data to project future implications of climate change for the two species. Increased soil temperatures associated with climate change may reduce the pest status of G. pallida but benefit G. rostochiensis especially in the southern United Kingdom. We conclude that plant breeders may be able to exploit the thermal limits of G. pallida by developing potato cultivars able to grow under future warm summer conditions. Existing widely deployed resistance to G. rostochiensis is an important characteristic to retain for new potato cultivars.     

Virus disease in wheat predicted to increase with a changing climate

Current atmospheric CO₂ levels are about 400 μmol mol^?1 and are predicted to rise to 650 μmol mol^?1 later this century. Although the positive and negative impacts of CO₂ on plants are well documented, little is known about interactions with pests and diseases. If disease severity increases under future environmental conditions, then it becomes imperative to understand the impacts of pathogens on crop production in order to minimize crop losses and maximize food production. Barley yellow dwarf virus (BYDV) adversely affects the yield and quality of economically important crops including wheat, barley and oats. It is transmitted by numerous aphid species and causes a serious disease of cereal crops worldwide. This study examined the effects of ambient (aCO₂; 400 μmol mol^?1) and elevated CO₂ (eCO₂; 650 μmol mol^?1) on noninfected and BYDV‐infected wheat. Using a RT‐qPCR technique, we measured virus titre from aCO₂ and eCO₂ treatments. BYDV titre increased significantly by 36.8% in leaves of wheat grown under eCO₂ conditions compared to aCO₂. Plant growth parameters including height, tiller number, leaf area and biomass were generally higher in plants exposed to higher CO₂ levels but increased growth did not explain the increase in BYDV titre in these plants. High virus titre in plants has been shown to have a significant negative effect on plant yield and causes earlier and more pronounced symptom expression increasing the probability of virus spread by insects. The combination of these factors could negatively impact food production in Australia and worldwide under future climate conditions. This is the first quantitative evidence that BYDV titre increases in plants grown under elevated CO₂ levels.     

An approach to consider behavioral plasticity as a source of uncertainty when forecasting species' response to climate change

The rapid ecological shifts that are occurring due to climate change present major challenges for managers and policymakers and, therefore, are one of the main concerns for environmental modelers and evolutionary biologists. Species distribution models (SDM) are appropriate tools for assessing the relationship between species distribution and environmental conditions, so being customarily used to forecast the biogeographical response of species to climate change. A serious limitation of species distribution models when forecasting the effects of climate change is that they normally assume that species behavior and climatic tolerances will remain constant through time. In this study, we propose a new methodology, based on fuzzy logic, useful for incorporating the potential capacity of species to adapt to new conditions into species distribution models. Our results demonstrate that it is possible to include different behavioral responses of species when predicting the effects of climate change on species distribution. Favorability models offered in this study show two extremes: one considering that the species will not modify its present behavior, and another assuming that the species will take full advantage of the possibilities offered by an increase in environmental favorability. This methodology may mean a more realistic approach to the assessment of the consequences of global change on species' distribution and conservation. Overlooking the potential of species' phenotypical plasticity may under‐ or overestimate the predicted response of species to changes in environmental drivers and its effects on species distribution. Using this approach, we could reinforce the science behind conservation planning in the current situation of rapid climate change.     

Climate‐associated genetic variation in Fagus sylvatica and potential responses to climate change in the French Alps

Local adaptation patterns have been found in many plants and animals, highlighting the genetic heterogeneity of species along their range of distribution. In the next decades, global warming is predicted to induce a change in the selective pressures that drive this adaptive variation, forcing a reshuffling of the underlying adaptive allele distributions. For species with low dispersion capacity and long generation time such as trees, the rapidity of the change could impede the migration of beneficial alleles and lower their capacity to track the changing environment. Identifying the main selective pressures driving the adaptive genetic variation is thus necessary when investigating species capacity to respond to global warming. In this study, we investigate the adaptive landscape of Fagus sylvatica along a gradient of populations in the French Alps. Using a double‐digest restriction‐site‐associated DNA (ddRAD) sequencing approach, we identified 7,000 SNPs from 570 individuals across 36 different sites. A redundancy analysis (RDA)‐derived method allowed us to identify several SNPs that were strongly associated with climatic gradients; moreover, we defined the primary selective gradients along the natural populations of F. sylvatica in the Alps. Strong effects of elevation and humidity, which contrast north‐western and south‐eastern site, were found and were believed to be important drivers of genetic adaptation. Finally, simulations of future genetic landscapes that used these findings allowed identifying populations at risk for F. sylvatica in the Alps, which could be helpful for future management plans.     

Identification of a bacterial pathogen associated with Porites white patch syndrome in the Western Indian Ocean

Porites white patch syndrome (PWPS) is a coral disease recently described in the Western Indian Ocean. This study aimed to isolate and identify potential pathogens associated with PWPS utilizing both culture and nonculture screening techniques and inoculation trials. A total of 14 bacterial strains (those dominant in disease lesions, absent or rare in healthy tissues and considered potential pathogens in a previous study) were cultured and used to experimentally inoculate otherwise healthy individuals in an attempt to fulfil Henle–Koch's postulates. However, only one (P180R), identified as closely related (99–100% sequence identity based on 1.4 kb 16S RNA sequence) to Vibrio tubiashii, elicited signs of disease in tank experiments. Following experimental infection (which resulted in a 90% infection rate), the pathogen was also successfully re‐isolated from the diseased tissues and re‐inoculated in healthy corals colonies, therefore fulfilling the final stages of Henle–Koch's postulates. Finally, we report that PWPS appears to be a temperature‐dependent disease, with significantly higher tissue loss (anova : d.f. = 2, F = 39.77, P < 0.01) occurring at 30 °C [1.45 ± 0.85 cm² per day (mean ± SE)] compared to ambient temperatures of 28 and 26 °C (0.73 ± 0.80 cm² per day (mean ± SE) and 0.51 ± 0.50 cm² per day (mean ± SE), respectively).     

Regional scale gradients of climate and nitrogen deposition drive variation in ectomycorrhizal fungal communities associated with native Scots pine

Ectomycorrhizal fungi commonly associate with the roots of forest trees where they enhance nutrient and water uptake, promote seedling establishment and have an important role in forest nutrient cycling. Predicting the response of ectomycorrhizal fungi to environmental change is an important step to maintaining forest productivity in the future. These predictions are currently limited by an incomplete understanding of the relative significance of environmental drivers in determining the community composition of ectomycorrhizal (ECM) fungi at large spatial scales. To identify patterns of community composition in ECM fungi along regional scale gradients of climate and nitrogen deposition in Scotland, fungal communities were analysed from 15 seminatural Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) forests. Fungal taxa were identified by sequencing of the ITS rDNA region using fungal‐specific primers. Nonmetric multidimensional scaling was used to assess the significance of 16 climatic, pollutant and edaphic variables on community composition. Vector fitting showed that there was a strong influence of rainfall and soil moisture on community composition at the species level, and a smaller impact of temperature on the abundance of ectomycorrhizal exploration types. Nitrogen deposition was also found to be important in determining community composition, but only when the forest experiencing the highest deposition (9.8 kg N ha^?1 yr^?1) was included in the analysis. This finding supports previously published critical load estimates for ectomycorrhizal fungi of 5–10 kg N ha^?1 yr^?1. This work demonstrates that both climate and nitrogen deposition can drive gradients of fungal community composition at a regional scale.     

Using the MaxEnt model for assessing the impact of climate change on the Aurasian Aleppo pine distribution in Algeria

In the context of recent climate changes and their impact on the vegetation cover in the southern shore of the Mediterranean, this paper deals with the potential distribution in the present and the future of the Aleppo pine in the north‐east of Algeria. Accordingly, this study focuses on modelling of the spatiotemporal distribution of the Aurasian Aleppo pine, by means of MaxEnt program. The models developed with MaxEnt showed good predictivity with AUC > 0.80 for the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios projected, respectively, for 2055 and 2085. The results showed that the annual thermal amplitude followed by altitude appear to be the main factors of the spatiotemporal distribution of Aleppo pine in the study area. Under current conditions, only 20% of the territory seems favourable to the presence of the Aleppo pine. However, future predictions expect an extension of the areas classified as “moderately favourable” to the Aleppo pine. In response to climate changes, the Aurasian Aleppo pine may display two contrasted tendencies: a progressive evolution in the north, and a regressive evolution in the south of the Aurès region as well as a displacement of suitable areas for Aleppo pine to the north.     

Effects of historic and projected climate change on the range and impacts of an emerging wildlife disease

The global trend of increasing environmental temperatures is often predicted to result in more severe disease epidemics. However, unambiguous evidence that temperature is a driver of epidemics is largely lacking, because it is demanding to demonstrate its role among the complex interactions between hosts, pathogens, and their shared environment. Here, we apply a three‐pronged approach to understand the effects of temperature on ranavirus epidemics in UK common frogs, combining in vitro, in vivo, and field studies. Each approach suggests that higher temperatures drive increasing severity of epidemics. In wild populations, ranavirosis incidents were more frequent and more severe at higher temperatures, and their frequency increased through a period of historic warming in the 1990s. Laboratory experiments using cell culture and whole animal models showed that higher temperature increased ranavirus propagation, disease incidence, and mortality rate. These results, combined with climate projections, predict severe ranavirosis outbreaks will occur over wider areas and an extended season, possibly affecting larval recruitment. Since ranaviruses affect a variety of ectothermic hosts (amphibians, reptiles, and fish), wider ecological damage could occur. Our three complementary lines of evidence present a clear case for direct environmental modulation of these epidemics and suggest management options to protect species from disease.     

Dramatic loss of seagrass habitat under projected climate change in the Mediterranean Sea

Although climate warming is affecting most marine ecosystems, the Mediterranean is showing earlier impacts. Foundation seagrasses are already experiencing a well‐documented regression in the Mediterranean which could be aggravated by climate change. Here, we forecast distributions of two seagrasses and contrast predicted loss with discrete regions identified on the basis of extant genetic diversity. Under the worst‐case scenario, Posidonia oceanica might lose 75% of suitable habitat by 2050 and is at risk of functional extinction by 2100, whereas Cymodocea nodosa would lose only 46.5% in that scenario as losses are compensated with gained and stable areas in the Atlantic. Besides, we predict that erosion of present genetic diversity and vicariant processes can happen, as all Mediterranean genetic regions could decrease considerably in extension in future warming scenarios. The functional extinction of Posidonia oceanica would have important ecological impacts and may also lead to the release of the massive carbon stocks these ecosystems stored over millennia.     

Plant response to climate change along the forest‐tundra ecotone in northeastern Siberia

Russia's boreal (taiga) biome will likely contract sharply and shift northward in response to 21st century climatic change, yet few studies have examined plant response to climatic variability along the northern margin. We quantified climate dynamics, trends in plant growth, and growth–climate relationships across the tundra shrublands and Cajander larch (Larix cajanderi Mayr.) woodlands of the Kolyma river basin (657 000 km²) in northeastern Siberia using satellite‐derived normalized difference vegetation indices (NDVI), tree ring‐width measurements, and climate data. Mean summer temperatures (T_s) increased 1.0 °C from 1938 to 2009, though there was no trend (P > 0.05) in growing year precipitation or climate moisture index (CMI_gy). Mean summer NDVI (NDVI_s) increased significantly from 1982 to 2010 across 20% of the watershed, primarily in cold, shrub‐dominated areas. NDVI_s positively correlated (P < 0.05) with T_s across 56% of the watershed (r = 0.52 ± 0.09, mean ± SD), principally in cold areas, and with CMI_gy across 9% of the watershed (r = 0.45 ± 0.06), largely in warm areas. Larch ring‐width measurements from nine sites revealed that year‐to‐year (i.e., high‐frequency) variation in growth positively correlated (P < 0.05) with June temperature (r = 0.40) and prior summer CMI (r = 0.40) from 1938 to 2007. An unexplained multi‐decadal (i.e., low‐frequency) decline in annual basal area increment (BAI) occurred following the mid‐20th century, but over the NDVI record there was no trend in mean BAI (P > 0.05), which significantly correlated with NDVI_s (r = 0.44, P < 0.05, 1982–2007). Both satellite and tree‐ring analyses indicated that plant growth was constrained by both low temperatures and limited moisture availability and, furthermore, that warming enhanced growth. Impacts of future climatic change on forests near treeline in Arctic Russia will likely be influenced by shifts in both temperature and moisture, which implies that projections of future forest distribution and productivity in this area should take into account the interactions of energy and moisture limitations.     

Winter climate change and coastal wetland foundation species: salt marshes vs. mangrove forests in the southeastern United States

We live in an era of unprecedented ecological change in which ecologists and natural resource managers are increasingly challenged to anticipate and prepare for the ecological effects of future global change. In this study, we investigated the potential effect of winter climate change upon salt marsh and mangrove forest foundation species in the southeastern United States. Our research addresses the following three questions: (1) What is the relationship between winter climate and the presence and abundance of mangrove forests relative to salt marshes; (2) How vulnerable are salt marshes to winter climate change‐induced mangrove forest range expansion; and (3) What is the potential future distribution and relative abundance of mangrove forests under alternative winter climate change scenarios? We developed simple winter climate‐based models to predict mangrove forest distribution and relative abundance using observed winter temperature data (1970–2000) and mangrove forest and salt marsh habitat data. Our results identify winter climate thresholds for salt marsh–mangrove forest interactions and highlight coastal areas in the southeastern United States (e.g., Texas, Louisiana, and parts of Florida) where relatively small changes in the intensity and frequency of extreme winter events could cause relatively dramatic landscape‐scale ecosystem structural and functional change in the form of poleward mangrove forest migration and salt marsh displacement. The ecological implications of these marsh‐to‐mangrove forest conversions are poorly understood, but would likely include changes for associated fish and wildlife populations and for the supply of some ecosystem goods and services.     

Mechanistic insights into the effects of climate change on larval cod

Understanding the biophysical mechanisms that shape variability in fisheries recruitment is critical for estimating the effects of climate change on fisheries. In this study, we used an Earth System Model (ESM) and a mechanistic individual‐based model (IBM) for larval fish to analyze how climate change may impact the growth and survival of larval cod in the North Atlantic. We focused our analysis on five regions that span the current geographical range of cod and are known to contain important spawning populations. Under the SRES A2 (high emissions) scenario, the ESM‐projected surface ocean temperatures are expected to increase by >1 °C for 3 of the 5 regions, and stratification is expected to increase at all sites between 1950–1999 and 2050–2099. This enhanced stratification is projected to decrease large (>5 μm ESD) phytoplankton productivity and mesozooplankton biomass at all 5 sites. Higher temperatures are projected to increase larval metabolic costs, which combined with decreased food resources will reduce larval weight, increase the probability of larvae dying from starvation and increase larval exposure to visual and invertebrate predators at most sites. If current concentrations of piscivore and invertebrate predators are maintained, larval survival is projected to decrease at all five sites by 2050–2099. In contrast to past observed responses to climate variability in which warm anomalies led to better recruitment in cold‐water stocks, our simulations indicated that reduced prey availability under climate change may cause a reduction in larval survival despite higher temperatures in these regions. In the lower prey environment projected under climate change, higher metabolic costs due to higher temperatures outweigh the advantages of higher growth potential, leading to negative effects on northern cod stocks. Our results provide an important first large‐scale assessment of the impacts of climate change on larval cod in the North Atlantic.     

Radial growth response to climate change along the latitudinal range of the world's southernmost conifer in southern South America

Aim

We examined whether and how tree radial‐growth responses to climate have changed for the world's southernmost conifer species throughout its latitudinal distribution following rapid climate change in the second half of the 20th century.

Location

Temperate forests in southern South America.

Methods

New and existing tree‐ring radial growth chronologies representing the entire latitudinal range of Pilgerodendron uviferum were grouped according to latitude and then examined for differences in growth trends and non‐stationarity in growth responses to a drought severity index (scPDSI) over the 1900–1993 AD period and also before and after significant shifts in climate in the 1950s and 1970s.

Results

The radial‐growth response of P. uviferum climate was highly variable across its full latitudinal distribution. There was a long‐term and positive association between radial growth and higher moisture at the northern and southern edges of the distribution of this species and the opposite relationship for the core of its distribution, especially following the climatic shifts of the 1950s and 1970s. In addition, non‐stationarity in moisture‐radial growth relationships was observed in all three latitudinal groups (southern and northern edges and core) for all seasons during the 20th century.

Main conclusions

Climate shifts in southern South America in the 1950s and 1970s resulted in different responses in the mean radial growth of P. uviferum at the southern and northern edges and at the core of its range. Dendroclimatic analyses document that during the first half of the 20th century climate‐growth relationships were relatively similar between the southern and northern range edges but diverged after the 1950s. Our findings imply that simulated projections of climate impacts on tree growth, and by implication on forest ecosystem productivity, derived from models of past climate‐growth relationships need to carefully consider different and non‐stationarity responses along the wide latitudinal distribution of this species.     

Using species distribution models to select species resistant to climate change for ecological restoration of bowé in West Africa

Bowalization is a particular form of land degradation and leads to lateral expansion of ferricrete horizons. The process occurs only in tropical regions. In this study, the most adapted and resistant species towards climate change were identified on bowé. The 15 most common bowé species of the subhumid and semi‐arid climate zones of Benin were submitted together with significant environmental variables (elevation, current bioclimatic variables, soil types) to three ecological niche modelling programmes (Maxent, Domain and GARP). For future prediction (2050), IPCC4/CIAT and IPCC5/CMIP5 climate data were applied. Asparagus africanus, Andropogon pseudapricus and Combretum nigricans were identified as the most resistant species for ecological restoration of bowé in the semi‐arid climate zone and Asparagus africanus, Detarium microcarpum and Lannea microcarpa in the subhumid climate zone. The ‘Pull’ strategies were identified as appropriate for ecological restoration of bowé in Benin.