Detecting nonlinear response of spring phenology to climate change by Bayesian analysis

The impact of climate change on the advancement of plant phenological events has been heavily studied in the last decade. Although the majority of spring plant phenological events have been trending earlier, this is not universally true. Recent work has suggested that species that are not advancing in their spring phenological behavior are responding more to lack of winter chill than increased spring heat. One way to test this hypothesis is by evaluating the behavior of a species known to have a moderate to high chilling requirement and examining how it is responding to increased warming. This study used a 60‐year data set for timing of leaf‐out and male flowering of walnut (Juglans regia) cultivar ‘Payne’ to examine this issue. The spring phenological behavior of ‘Payne’ walnut differed depending on bud type. The vegetative buds, which have a higher chilling requirement, trended toward earlier leaf‐out until about 1994, when they shifted to later leaf‐out. The date of male bud pollen shedding advanced over the course of the whole record. Our findings suggest that many species which have exhibited earlier bud break are responding to warmer spring temperatures, but may shift into responding more to winter temperatures (lack of adequate chilling) as warming continues.     

The capacity to cope with climate warming declines from temperate to tropical latitudes in two widely distributed Eucalyptus species

As rapid climate warming creates a mismatch between forest trees and their home environment, the ability of trees to cope with warming depends on their capacity to physiologically adjust to higher temperatures. In widespread species, individual trees in cooler home climates are hypothesized to more successfully acclimate to warming than their counterparts in warmer climates that may approach thermal limits. We tested this prediction with a climate‐shift experiment in widely distributed Eucalyptus tereticornis and E. grandis using provenances originating along a ~2500 km latitudinal transect (15.5–38.0°S) in eastern Australia. We grew 21 provenances in conditions approximating summer temperatures at seed origin and warmed temperatures (+3.5 °C) using a series of climate‐controlled glasshouse bays. The effects of +3.5 °C warming strongly depended on home climate. Cool‐origin provenances responded to warming through an increase in photosynthetic capacity and total leaf area, leading to enhanced growth of 20–60%. Warm‐origin provenances, however, responded to warming through a reduction in photosynthetic capacity and total leaf area, leading to reduced growth of approximately 10%. These results suggest that there is predictable intraspecific variation in the capacity of trees to respond to warming; cool‐origin taxa are likely to benefit from warming, while warm‐origin taxa may be negatively affected.     

Reduced diurnal temperature range does not change warming impacts on ecosystem carbon balance of Mediterranean grassland mesocosms

Daily minimum temperature (T_min) has increased faster than daily maximum temperature (T_max) in many parts of the world, leading to decreases in diurnal temperature range (DTR). Projections suggest that these trends are likely to continue in many regions, particularly in northern latitudes and in arid regions. Despite wide speculation that asymmetric warming has different impacts on plant and ecosystem production than equal‐night‐and‐day warming, there has been little direct comparison of these scenarios. Reduced DTR has also been widely misinterpreted as a result of night‐only warming, when in fact T_min occurs near dawn, indicating higher morning as well as night temperatures. We report on the first experiment to examine ecosystem‐scale impacts of faster increases in T_min than in T_max, using precise temperature controls to create realistic diurnal temperature profiles with gradual day–night temperature transitions and elevated early morning as well as night temperatures. Studying a constructed grassland ecosystem containing species native to Oregon, USA, we found that the ecosystem lost more carbon at elevated than ambient temperatures, but remained unaffected by the 3 °C difference in DTR between symmetric warming (constantly ambient + 3.5 °C) and asymmetric warming (dawn T_min = ambient + 5 °C, afternoon T_max = ambient + 2 °C). Reducing DTR had no apparent effect on photosynthesis, probably because temperatures were most different in the morning and late afternoon when light was low. Respiration was also similar in both warming treatments, because respiration temperature sensitivity was not sufficient to respond to the limited temperature differences between asymmetric and symmetric warming. We concluded that changes in daily mean temperatures, rather than changes in T_min/T_max, were sufficient for predicting ecosystem carbon fluxes in this reconstructed Mediterranean grassland system.     

Effect of climate change on bud phenology of young aspen plants (Populus tremula. L)

Boreal tree species are excellent tools for studying tolerance to climate change. Bud phenology is a trait, which is highly sensitive to environmental fluctuations and thus useful for climate change investigations. However, experimental studies of bud phenology under simulated climate change outdoors are deficient. We conducted a multifactorial field experiment with single (T, UVA, UVB) and combined treatments (UVA+T, UVB+T) of elevated temperature (T, +2°C) and ultraviolet‐B radiation (+30% UVB) in order to examine their impact on both male and female genotypes of aspen (Populus tremula L.). This study focuses on the effect of the treatments in years 2 and 3 after planting (2013, 2014) and follows how bud phenology is adapting in year 4 (2015), when the treatments were discontinued. Moreover, the effect of bud removal was recorded. We found that elevated temperature played a key role in delaying bud set and forcing bud break in intact individuals, as well as slightly delaying bud break in bud‐removed individuals. UVB delayed the bud break in bud‐removed males. In addition, both UVA and UVB interacted with temperature in year 3 and even in year 4, when the treatments were off, but only in male individuals. Axillary bud removal forced both bud break and bud set under combined treatments (UVA+T, UVB+T) and delayed both under individual treatments (T, UVB). In conclusion, male aspens were more responsive to the treatments than females and that effect of elevated temperature and UV radiation on bud set and bud break of aspen is not disappearing over 4‐year study period.     

Photosynthetic capacity and leaf nitrogen decline along a controlled climate gradient in provenances of two widely distributed Eucalyptus species

Climate is an important factor limiting tree distributions and adaptation to different thermal environments may influence how tree populations respond to climate warming. Given the current rate of warming, it has been hypothesized that tree populations in warmer, more thermally stable climates may have limited capacity to respond physiologically to warming compared to populations from cooler, more seasonal climates. We determined in a controlled environment how several provenances of widely distributed Eucalyptus tereticornis and E. grandis adjusted their photosynthetic capacity to +3.5°C warming along their native distribution range (~16–38°S) and whether climate of seed origin of the provenances influenced their response to different growth temperatures. We also tested how temperature optima (T_opt) of photosynthesis and J_max responded to higher growth temperatures. Our results showed increased photosynthesis rates at a standardized temperature with warming in temperate provenances, while rates in tropical provenances were reduced by about 40% compared to their temperate counterparts. Temperature optima of photosynthesis increased as provenances were exposed to warmer growth temperatures. Both species had ~30% reduced photosynthetic capacity in tropical and subtropical provenances related to reduced leaf nitrogen and leaf Rubisco content compared to temperate provenances. Tropical provenances operated closer to their thermal optimum and came within 3% of the T_opt of J_max during the daily temperature maxima. Hence, further warming may negatively affect C uptake and tree growth in warmer climates, whereas eucalypts in cooler climates may benefit from moderate warming.     

Effects of temperature and drought manipulations on seedlings of Scots pine provenances

Rising temperatures and more frequent and severe climatic extremes as a consequence of climate change are expected to affect growth and distribution of tree species that are adapted to current local conditions. Species distribution models predict a considerable loss of habitats for Pinus sylvestris. These models do not consider possible intraspecific differences in response to drought and warming that could buffer those impacts. We tested 10 European provenances of P. sylvestris, from the southwestern to the central European part of the species distribution, for their response to warming and to drought using a factorial design. In this common‐garden experiment the air surrounding plants was heated directly to prevent excessive soil heating, and drought manipulation, using a rain‐out shelter, permitted almost natural radiation, including high light stress. Plant responses were assessed as changes in phenology, growth increment and biomass allocation. Seedlings of P. sylvestris revealed a plastic response to drought by increased taproot length and root–shoot ratios. Strongest phenotypic plasticity of root growth was found for southwestern provenances, indicating a specific drought adaptation at the cost of overall low growth of aboveground structures even under non‐drought conditions. Warming had a minor effect on growth but advanced phenological development and had a contrasting effect on bud biomass and diameter increment, depending on water availability. The intraspecific variation of P. sylvestris provenances could buffer climate change impacts, although additional factors such as the adaptation to other climatic extremes have to be considered before assisted migration could become a management option.     

A common thermal niche among geographically diverse populations of the widely distributed tree species Eucalyptus tereticornis: No evidence for adaptation to climate‐of‐origin

Impacts of climate warming depend on the degree to which plants are constrained by adaptation to their climate‐of‐origin or exhibit broad climatic suitability. We grew cool‐origin, central and warm‐origin provenances of Eucalyptus tereticornis in an array of common temperature environments from 18 to 35.5°C to determine if this widely distributed tree species consists of geographically contrasting provenances with differentiated and narrow thermal niches, or if provenances share a common thermal niche. The temperature responses of photosynthesis, respiration, and growth were equivalent across the three provenances, reflecting a common thermal niche despite a 2,200 km geographic distance and 13°C difference in mean annual temperature at seed origin. The temperature dependence of growth was primarily mediated by changes in leaf area per unit plant mass, photosynthesis, and whole‐plant respiration. Thermal acclimation of leaf, stem, and root respiration moderated the increase in respiration with temperature, but acclimation was constrained at high temperatures. We conclude that this species consists of provenances that are not differentiated in their thermal responses, thus rejecting our hypothesis of adaptation to climate‐of‐origin and suggesting a shared thermal niche. In addition, growth declines with warming above the temperature optima were driven by reductions in whole‐plant leaf area and increased respiratory carbon losses. The impacts of climate warming will nonetheless vary across the geographic range of this and other such species, depending primarily on each provenance's climate position on the temperature response curves for photosynthesis, respiration, and growth.     

Drought tolerance and growth in populations of a wide‐ranging tree species indicate climate change risks for the boreal north

Choosing drought‐tolerant planting stock in reforestation programs may help adapt forests to climate change. To inform such reforestation strategies, we test lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Doug. ex Loud. var latifolia Englm.) population response to drought and infer potential benefits of a northward transfer of seeds from drier, southern environments. The objective is addressed by combining dendroecological growth analysis with long‐term genetic field trials. Over 500 trees originating from 23 populations across western North America were destructively sampled in three experimental sites in southern British Columbia, representing a climate warming scenario. Growth after 32 years from provenances transferred southward or northward over long distances was significantly lower than growth of local populations. All populations were affected by a severe natural drought event in 2002. The provenances from the most southern locations showed the highest drought tolerance but low productivity. Local provenances were productive and drought tolerant. Provenances from the boreal north showed lower productivity and less drought tolerance on southern test sites than all other sources, implying that maladaptation to drought may prevent boreal populations from taking full advantage of more favorable growing conditions under projected climate change.     

Effect of warming and grazing on litter mass loss and temperature sensitivity of litter and dung mass loss on the Tibetan plateau

Knowledge about the role of litter and dung decomposition in nutrient cycling and response to climate change and grazing in alpine ecosystems is still rudimentary. We conducted two separate studies to assess the relative role of warming and grazing on litter mass loss and on the temperature sensitivity of litter and dung mass loss. Experiments were conducted for 1–2 years under a controlled warming–grazing system and along an elevation gradient from 3200 to 3800 m. A free‐air temperature enhancement system (FATE) using infrared heaters and grazing significantly increased soil temperatures (average 0.5–1.6 °C) from 0 to 40 cm depth, but neither warming nor grazing affected soil moisture except early in the growing seasons at 30 cm soil depth. Heaters caused greater soil warming at night‐time compared with daytime, but grazing resulted in greater soil warming during daytime compared with night‐time. Annual average values of the soil temperature at 5 cm were 3.2, 2.4 and 0.3 °C at 3200, 3600 and 3800 m, respectively. Neither warming nor grazing caused changes of litter quality for the first year of the controlled warming–grazing experiment. The effects of warming and grazing on litter mass losses were additive, increasing litter mass losses by about 19.3% and 8.3%, respectively, for the 2‐year decomposition periods. The temperature sensitivity of litter mass losses was approximately 11% °C^?1 based on the controlled warming–grazing experiment. The annual cumulative litter mass loss was approximately 2.5 times that of dung along the elevation gradient. However, the temperature sensitivity (about 18% °C^?1) of the dung mass loss was about three times that of the litter mass loss. These results suggest greater warming at night‐time compared with daytime may accelerate litter mass loss, and grazing will enhance carbon loss to atmosphere in the region through a decrease of litter biomass and an increase of dung production with an increase of stocking rate in future warmer conditions.     

Variation in the phenology of photosynthesis among eastern white pine provenances in response to warming

In higher‐latitude trees, temperature and photoperiod control the beginning and end of the photosynthetically active season. Elevated temperature (ET) has advanced spring warming and delayed autumn cooling while photoperiod remains unchanged. We assessed the effects of warming on the length of the photosynthetically active season of three provenances of Pinus strobus L. seedlings from different latitudes, and evaluated the accuracy of the photochemical reflectance index (PRI) and the chlorophyll/carotenoid index (CCI) for tracking the predicted variation in spring and autumn phenology of photosynthesis among provenances. Seedlings from northern, local and southern P. strobus provenances were planted in a temperature‐free‐air‐controlled enhancement (T‐FACE) experiment and exposed to ET (+1.5/3°C; day/night). Over 18 months, we assessed photosynthetic phenology by measuring chlorophyll fluorescence, gas exchange, leaf spectral reflectance and pigment content. During autumn, all seedlings regardless of provenance followed the same sequence of phenological events with the initial downregulation of photosynthesis, followed by the modulation of non‐photochemical quenching and associated adjustments of zeaxanthin pool sizes. However, the timing of autumn downregulation differed between provenances, with delayed onset in the southern provenance (SP) and earlier onset in the northern relative to the local provenance, indicating that photoperiod at the provenance origin is a dominant factor controlling autumn phenology. Experimental warming further delayed the downregulation of photosynthesis during autumn in the SP. A provenance effect during spring was also observed but was generally not significant. The vegetation indices PRI and CCI were both effective at tracking the seasonal variations of energy partitioning in needles and the differences of carotenoid pigments indicative of the stress status of needles. These results demonstrate that PRI and CCI can be useful tools for monitoring conifer phenology and for the remote monitoring of the length of the photosynthetically active season of conifers in a changing climate.     

Can phenological models predict tree phenology accurately in the future? The unrevealed hurdle of endodormancy break

The onset of the growing season of trees has been earlier by 2.3 days per decade during the last 40 years in temperate Europe because of global warming. The effect of temperature on plant phenology is, however, not linear because temperature has a dual effect on bud development. On one hand, low temperatures are necessary to break bud endodormancy, and, on the other hand, higher temperatures are necessary to promote bud cell growth afterward. Different process‐based models have been developed in the last decades to predict the date of budbreak of woody species. They predict that global warming should delay or compromise endodormancy break at the species equatorward range limits leading to a delay or even impossibility to flower or set new leaves. These models are classically parameterized with flowering or budbreak dates only, with no information on the endodormancy break date because this information is very scarce. Here, we evaluated the efficiency of a set of phenological models to accurately predict the endodormancy break dates of three fruit trees. Our results show that models calibrated solely with budbreak dates usually do not accurately predict the endodormancy break date. Providing endodormancy break date for the model parameterization results in much more accurate prediction of this latter, with, however, a higher error than that on budbreak dates. Most importantly, we show that models not calibrated with endodormancy break dates can generate large discrepancies in forecasted budbreak dates when using climate scenarios as compared to models calibrated with endodormancy break dates. This discrepancy increases with mean annual temperature and is therefore the strongest after 2050 in the southernmost regions. Our results claim for the urgent need of massive measurements of endodormancy break dates in forest and fruit trees to yield more robust projections of phenological changes in a near future.     

Predicting vegetative bud break in two arctic deciduous shrub species, Salix pulchra and Betula nana

The factors controlling bud break in two arctic deciduous shrub species, Salix pulchra and Betula nana, were investigated using field observations and growth-chamber studies. A bud-break model was calibrated using a subset of the experimental observations and was used to predict bud break under current and potential future climate regimes. The two species responded similarly in terms of bud break timing and response to air temperature in both field and controlled environments. In the field, the timing of bud break was strongly influenced by air temperatures once snowmelt had occurred. Growth chamber studies showed that a period of chilling is required before buds break in response to warming. Model simulations indicate that under current conditions, the chilling requirement is easily met during winter and that even with substantial winter warming, chilling will be sufficient. In contrast, warm spring temperatures determine the timing of bud break. This limitation by spring temperatures means that in a warmer climate bud break will occur earlier than under current temperature regimes. Such changes in bud break timing of the deciduous shrubs will likely have important consequences for the relative abundance of shrubs in future communities and consequently ecosystem processes. Received: 19 April 1999 / Accepted: 18 January 2000     

Compensatory mechanisms mitigate the effect of warming and drought on wood formation

Because of global warming, high‐latitude ecosystems are expected to experience increases in temperature and drought events. Wood formation will have to adjust to these new climatic constraints to maintain tree mechanical stability and long‐distance water transport. The aim of this study is to understand the dynamic processes involved in wood formation under warming and drought. Xylogenesis, gas exchange, water relations and wood anatomy of black spruce [Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.] saplings were monitored during a greenhouse experiment where temperature was increased during daytime or night‐time (+6 °C) combined with a drought period. The kinetics of tracheid development expressed as rate and duration of the xylogenesis sub‐processes were quantified using generalized additive models. Drought and warming had a strong influence on cell production, but little effect on wood anatomy. The increase in cell production rate under warmer temperatures, and especially during the night‐time warming at the end of the growing season, resulted in wider tree‐rings. However, the strong compensation between rates and durations of cell differentiation processes mitigates warming and drought effects on tree‐ring structure. Our results allowed quantification of how wood formation kinetics is regulated when water and heat stress increase, allowing trees to adapt to future environmental conditions.     

Effects of diurnal temperature range on adult size and emergence times from diapausing pupae in Papilio glaucus and P. canadensis (Papilionidae)

Abstract With recent climate warming trends, both the increase in thermal variance (i.e., diurnal temperature range; DTR) as well as increased mean temperature may impact many different organisms, especially poikilothermic invertebrates. Predictions of insect developmental rates using degree‐days (thermal unit accumulations above the developmental base threshold of the insect) are based on daily mean temperatures, regardless of DTR. However, non‐linearity and variance in the means and extremes are often ignored. The role of thermal variance (e.g., daily temperature extremes and DTR) was evaluated experimentally for two swallowtail butterfly sister species using a common day/night photoperiod of 18: 6 h photo: scoto‐phase and corresponding daytime thermophase and nighttime cryophase periods of 22: 22°C (constant 22°C), 24: 16°C, and 26: 10°C (all three treatments had the same daily mean and the same degree‐day accumulations). Although developmental rates of post‐diapause pupae were largely unaffected for both species, our results show that sizes in P. canadensis females (but not males) were smaller in the treatments with more variance (26°C: 10°C) compared to constant 22°C. Such potentially significant impacts of size reduction in P. canadensis females were not observed in P. glaucus males or females under the same series of thermo‐period treatments.     

Fertilization regulates the response of wheat yield to interannual temperature variation in North China

Aims Understanding the effect of long-term fertilization on the sensitivity of grain yield to temperature changes is critical for accurately assessing the impact of global warming on crop production. In this study, we aim to assess the impacts of temperature changes on grain yields of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) under different fertilization treatments in a long-term manipulative experiment in North China.Methods We measured grain yields of winter wheat under four fertilization treatments at the Yucheng Comprehensive Experimental Station each year from 1993 to 2012. We also measured air temperature at 0200, 0800, 1400 and 2000h each day since 1 January 1980. We then used the first-difference method and simple linear regression models to examine the relationship of crop yield changes to mean air temperature, mean daytime and nighttime air temperature in crop growing seasons.Important findings We found that increases in mean daily temperature, mean daytime temperature and mean nighttime temperature each had a positive impact on the grain yield of winter wheat. Grain yield increased by 16.7–85.6% for winter wheat in response to a 1°C increase in growing season mean daily temperature. Winter wheat yield was more sensitive to variations of nighttime temperature than to that of daytime temperature. The observed temperature impacts also varied across different fertilization treatments. Balanced fertilization significantly enhanced grain yields for winter wheat under a warming climate. Wheat plots treated with nitrogen and phosphorous balanced fertilization (NPK- and NP-treated plots) were more responsive to temperature changes than those without. This report provides direct evidence of how temperature change impacts grain yields under different fertilization treatments, which is useful for crop management in a changing global climate.     

Seasonally different response of photosynthetic activity to daytime and night‐time warming in the Northern Hemisphere

Over the last century the Northern Hemisphere has experienced rapid climate warming, but this warming has not been evenly distributed seasonally, as well as diurnally. The implications of such seasonal and diurnal heterogeneous warming on regional and global vegetation photosynthetic activity, however, are still poorly understood. Here, we investigated for different seasons how photosynthetic activity of vegetation correlates with changes in seasonal daytime and night‐time temperature across the Northern Hemisphere (>30°N), using Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data from 1982 to 2011 obtained from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR). Our analysis revealed some striking seasonal differences in the response of NDVI to changes in day‐ vs. night‐time temperatures. For instance, while higher daytime temperature (T_max) is generally associated with higher NDVI values across the boreal zone, the area exhibiting a statistically significant positive correlation between T_max and NDVI is much larger in spring (41% of area in boreal zone – total area 12.6 × 10⁶ km²) than in summer and autumn (14% and 9%, respectively). In contrast to the predominantly positive response of boreal ecosystems to changes in T_max, increases in T_max tended to negatively influence vegetation growth in temperate dry regions, particularly during summer. Changes in night‐time temperature (T_min) correlated negatively with autumnal NDVI in most of the Northern Hemisphere, but had a positive effect on spring and summer NDVI in most temperate regions (e.g., Central North America and Central Asia). Such divergent covariance between the photosynthetic activity of Northern Hemispheric vegetation and day‐ and night‐time temperature changes among different seasons and climate zones suggests a changing dominance of ecophysiological processes across time and space. Understanding the seasonally different responses of vegetation photosynthetic activity to diurnal temperature changes, which have not been captured by current land surface models, is important for improving the performance of next generation regional and global coupled vegetation‐climate models.     

Infrared heater arrays for warming ecosystem field plots

There is a need for methodology to warm open‐field plots in order to study the likely effects of global warming on ecosystems in the future. Herein, we describe the development of arrays of more powerful and efficient infrared heaters with ceramic heating elements. By tilting the heaters at 45° from horizontal and combining six of them in a hexagonal array, good uniformity of warming was achieved across 3‐m‐diameter plots. Moreover, there do not appear to be obstacles (other than financial) to scaling to larger plots. The efficiency [η_h (%); thermal radiation out per electrical energy in] of these heaters was higher than that of the heaters used in most previous infrared heater experiments and can be described by: η_h= 10 + 25exp(? 0.17 u), where u is wind speed at 2 m height (m s^{? 1}). Graphs are presented to estimate operating costs from degrees of warming, two types of plant canopy, and site windiness. Four such arrays were deployed over plots of grass at Haibei, Qinghai, China and another at Cheyenne, Wyoming, USA, along with corresponding reference plots with dummy heaters. Proportional integral derivative systems with infrared thermometers to sense canopy temperatures of the heated and reference plots were used to control the heater outputs. Over month‐long periods at both sites, about 75% of canopy temperature observations were within 0.5 °C of the set‐point temperature differences between heated and reference plots. Electrical power consumption per 3‐m‐diameter plot averaged 58 and 80 kW h day^{? 1} for Haibei and Cheyenne, respectively. However, the desired temperature differences were set lower at Haibei (1.2 °C daytime, 1.7 °C night) than Cheyenne (1.5 °C daytime, 3.0 °C night), and Cheyenne is a windier site. Thus, we conclude that these hexagonal arrays of ceramic infrared heaters can be a successful temperature free‐air‐controlled enhancement (T‐FACE) system for warming ecosystem field plots.     

Comparison of the effects of symmetric and asymmetric temperature elevation and CO2 enrichment on yield and evapotranspiration of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.)

Under the changing climate, asymmetric warming pattern would be more likely during day and night time, instead of symmetric one. Concurrently, the growth responses and water use of plants may be different compared with those estimated based on symmetric warming. In this work, it was compared with the effects of symmetric (ETs) and asymmetric (ETa) elevation of temperature alone, and in interaction with elevated carbon dioxide concentration (EC), on the grain yield (GY) and evapotranspiration in winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) based on pot experiment in the North China Plain (NCP). The experiment was carried out in six enclosed‐top chambers with following climate treatments: (1) ambient temperature and ambient CO₂ (CON), (2) ambient temperature and elevated CO₂ (EC), (3) elevated temperature and ambient CO₂ (ETs; ETa), and (4) elevated temperature and elevated CO₂ (ECETs, ECETa). In symmetric warming, temperature was increased by 3°C and in asymmetric one by 3.5°C during night and 2.5°C during daytime, respectively. As a result, GY was in ETa and ETs 15.6 (P < 0.05) and 10.3% (P < 0.05) lower than that in CON. In ECETs and ECETa treatments, GY was 14.9 (P < 0.05) and 9.1% (P < 0.05) higher than that in CON. Opposite to GY, evapotranspiration was 7.8 (P < 0.05) and 17.9% (P < 0.05) higher in ETa and ETs treatments and 7.2 (P < 0.05) and 2.1% (P > 0.05) lower in ECETs and ECETa treatments compared with CON. Thus, GY of wheat could be expected to increase under the changing climate with concurrent elevation of CO₂ and temperature as a result of increased WUE under the elevated CO₂. However, the gain would be lower under ETa than that estimated based on ETs due to higher evapotranspiration.     

Specificity responses of grasshoppers in temperate grasslands to diel asymmetric warming

Background

Global warming is characterized by not only an increase in the daily mean temperature, but also a diel asymmetric pattern. However, most of the current studies on climate change have only concerned with the mean values of the warming trend. Although many studies have been conducted concerning the responses of insects to climate change, studies that address the issue of diel asymmetric warming under field conditions are not found in the literature.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We conducted a field climate manipulative experiment and investigated developmental and demographic responses to diel asymmetric warming in three grasshopper species (an early-season species Dasyhippus barbipes, a mid-season species Oedaleus asiaticus, and a late-season species Chorthippus fallax). It was found that warming generally advanced the development of eggs and nymphs, but had no apparent impacts on the hatching rate of eggs, the emergence rate of nymphs and the survival and fecundity of adults in all the three species. Nighttime warming was more effective in advancing egg development than the daytime warming. The emergence time of adults was differentially advanced by warming in the three species; it was advanced by 5.64 days in C. fallax, 3.55 days in O. asiaticus, and 1.96 days in D. barbipes. This phenological advancement was associated with increases in the effective GDDs accumulation.

Conclusions/Significance

Results in this study indicate that the responses of the three grasshopper species to warming are influenced by several factors, including species traits, developmental stage, and the thermal sensitivity of the species. Moreover, species with diapausing eggs are less responsive to changes in temperature regimes, suggesting that development of diapausing eggs is a protective mechanism in early-season grasshopper for avoiding the risk of pre-winter hatching. Our results highlight the need to consider the complex relationships between climate change and specificity responses of invertebrates.