Climate change and perishable food hoards of an avian predator: Is the freezer still working?

Changing climate can modify predator–prey interactions and induce declines or local extinctions of species due to reductions in food availability. Species hoarding perishable food for overwinter survival, like predators, are predicted to be particularly susceptible to increasing temperatures. We analysed the influence of autumn and winter weather, and abundance of main prey (voles), on the food‐hoarding behaviour of a generalist predator, the Eurasian pygmy owl (Glaucidium passerinum), across 16 years in Finland. Fewer freeze–thaw events in early autumn delayed the initiation of food hoarding. Pygmy owls consumed more hoarded food with more frequent freeze–thaw events and deeper snow cover in autumn and in winter, and lower precipitation in winter. In autumn, the rotting of food hoards increased with precipitation. Hoards already present in early autumn were much more likely to rot than the ones initiated in late autumn. Rotten food hoards were used more in years of low food abundance than in years of high food abundance. Having rotten food hoards in autumn resulted in a lower future recapture probability of female owls. These results indicate that pygmy owls might be partly able to adapt to climate change by delaying food hoarding, but changes in the snow cover, precipitation and frequency of freeze–thaw events might impair their foraging and ultimately decrease local overwinter survival. Long‐term trends and future predictions, therefore, suggest that impacts of climate change on wintering food‐hoarding species could be substantial, because their ‘freezers’ may no longer work properly. Altered usability and poorer quality of hoarded food may further modify the foraging needs of food‐hoarding predators and thus their overall predation pressure on prey species. This raises concerns about the impacts of climate change on boreal food webs, in which ecological interactions have evolved under cold winter conditions.     

Marine copepod diversity patterns and the metabolic theory of ecology

The ongoing climate change has improved our understanding of how climate affects the reproduction of animals. However, the interaction between food availability and climate on breeding has rarely been examined. While it has been shown that breeding of boreal birds of prey is first and foremost determined by prey abundance, little information exists on how climatic conditions influence this relationship. We studied the joint effects of main prey abundance and ambient weather on timing of breeding and reproductive success of two smaller (pygmy owl Glaucidium passerinum and Tengmalm’s owl Aegolius funereus) and two larger (tawny owl Strix aluco and Ural owl Strix uralensis) avian predator species using long-term nation-wide datasets during 1973–2004. We found no temporal trend either in vole abundance or in hatching date and brood size of any studied owl species. In the larger species, increasing late winter or early spring temperature advanced breeding at least as much as did high autumn abundance of prey (voles). Furthermore, increasing snow depth delayed breeding of the largest species (Ural owl), presumably by reducing the availability of voles. Brood size was strongly determined by spring vole abundance in all four owl species. These results show that climate directly affects the breeding performance of vole-eating boreal avian predators much more than previously thought. According to earlier studies, small-sized species should advance their breeding more than larger species in response to increasing temperature. However, we found an opposite pattern, with larger species being more sensitive to temperature. We argue that this pattern is caused by a difference in the breeding tactics of larger mostly capital breeding and smaller mostly income breeding owl species.     

Pygmy owl Glaucidium passerinum and the usage of ultraviolet cues of prey

Birds rely mainly on their vision when foraging. Many diurnal raptors use ultraviolet (UV) vision and ultraviolet‐reflecting vole scent marks to find suitable hunting areas, whereas nocturnal owls seem to lack this ability. We studied if the diurnal pygmy owl Glaucidium passerinum that uses voles and birds as its food can detect vole scent marks using UV‐vision. We conducted a laboratory experiment with eleven owls. Each individual owl had four options to choose from: (1) scent marks with UV light, (2) scent marks without UV light, (3) clean arena with UV light and (4) clean arena without UV light. The owls scanned the scent mark arena more often in the presence of UV light than other arenas. However, owls did not spend more time above the UV arena. We suggest that pygmy owls can detect near UV and use UV to gain information about prey like other diurnal raptors.     

The difference between generalist and specialist: the effects of wide fluctuations in main food abundance on numbers and reproduction of two co-existing predators

Specialist individuals within animal populations have shown to be more efficient foragers and/or to have higher reproductive success than generalist individuals, but interspecific reproductive consequences of the degree of diet specialisation in vertebrate predators have remained unstudied. Eurasian pygmy owls (hereafter POs) have less vole-specialised diets than Tengmalm's owls (TOs), both of which mainly subsist on temporally fluctuating food resources (voles). To test whether the specialist TO is more limited by the main prey abundance than the generalist PO, we studied breeding densities and reproductive traits of co-existing POs and TOs in central-western Finland during 2002–2019. Breeding densities of POs increased with augmenting densities of voles in the previous autumn, whereas breeding densities of TOs increased with higher vole densities in both the previous autumn and the current spring. In years of vole scarcity, PO females started egg-laying earlier than TOs, whereas in years of vole abundance TO females laid eggs substantially earlier than PO females. The yearly mean clutch size and number of fledglings produced of both POs and TOs increased with abundance of voles in the current spring. POs laid large clutches and produced large broods in years of both high and low vole abundance, whereas TOs were able to do so only in years of high vole abundance. POs were able to raise on average 73% of the eggs to fledglings whereas TOs only 44%. The generalist foraging strategy of POs including flexible switching from main prey to alternative prey (small birds) appeared to be more productive than the strictly vole-specialized foraging strategy of TOs. In contrast to earlier studies at the individual-level, specialist predators at the species level (in this case TOs) appear to be less effective than generalists (POs), but diet specialisation was particularly costly under conditions when scarcity of main foods limited offspring production.     

Predator population dynamics under a cyclic prey regime: numerical responses,demographic parameters and growth rates

The consequences of cyclic fluctuations in abundance of prey species on predator continue to improve our understanding of the mechanisms behind population regulation. Among predators, vole‐eating raptors usually respond to changes in prey abundance with no apparent time‐lag and therefore contradict predictions from the predator–prey theory. In such systems, the interplay between demographic traits and population growth rate in relation to prey abundance remains poorly studied, yet it is crucial to characterize the link between ecological processes and population changes. Using a mechanistic approach, we assessed the demographic rates associated to the direct and indirect numerical responses of a specialist raptor (Montagu's harrier) to its cyclic prey (common vole), using long term data from two adjacent study sites in France. First‐year survival rates were weakly affected by vole abundance, probably due to the fact that Montagu's harriers are trans‐Saharan migrants and thus escape the vole collapse occurring in autumn–winter. Recruitment of yearling as well as breeding propensity of experienced adult females were strongly affected by vole abundance and at least partially shaped the trajectory of the breeding population. We argued that the strong density dependent signal detected in predator time series was mostly the phenomenological consequence of the positive direct numerical response of harriers to vole abundance. Accounting for this, we proposed a method to assess density dependence in predator relying on a cyclic prey. Finally, the variation in Montagu's harrier population growth rates was best explained by overwinter growth rates of the prey population and to a lesser extent by previous residual predator density.     

Interspecific competition limits larders of pygmy owls Glaucidium passerinum

To test whether competitive and predatory interactions limit larder size we erected pygmy owl Glaucidium passerinum nest-boxes for hoarding with 45 mm entrance diameter near and far (>2 km) from Tengmalm's owl Aegolius funereus nest-boxes with >80 mm entrance diameter during early autumn. We found larders of pygmy owls in similar frequency in both near and far plots (41 vs. 42% of plots), but in near plots the number and biomass of cached prey by pygmy owls were lower. These results suggest that there is competition for food between these two owl species and/or that food caching behaviour of pygmy owls is disturbed by larger Tengmalm's owls.     

Dampening prey cycle overrides the impact of climate change on predator population dynamics: a long‐term demographic study on tawny owls

Predicting the dynamics of animal populations with different life histories requires careful understanding of demographic responses to multifaceted aspects of global changes, such as climate and trophic interactions. Continent‐scale dampening of vole population cycles, keystone herbivores in many ecosystems, has been recently documented across Europe. However, its impact on guilds of vole‐eating predators remains unknown. To quantify this impact, we used a 27‐year study of an avian predator (tawny owl) and its main prey (field vole) collected in Kielder Forest (UK) where vole dynamics shifted from a high‐ to a low‐amplitude fluctuation regime in the mid‐1990s. We measured the functional responses of four demographic rates to changes in prey dynamics and winter climate, characterized by wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (wNAO). First‐year and adult survival were positively affected by vole density in autumn but relatively insensitive to wNAO. The probability of breeding and number of fledglings were higher in years with high spring vole densities and negative wNAO (i.e. colder and drier winters). These functional responses were incorporated into a stochastic population model. The size of the predator population was projected under scenarios combining prey dynamics and winter climate to test whether climate buffers or alternatively magnifies the impact of changes in prey dynamics. We found the observed dampening vole cycles, characterized by low spring densities, drastically reduced the breeding probability of predators. Our results illustrate that (i) change in trophic interactions can override direct climate change effect; and (ii) the demographic resilience entailed by longevity and the occurrence of a floater stage may be insufficient to buffer hypothesized environmental changes. Ultimately, dampened prey cycles would drive our owl local population towards extinction, with winter climate regimes only altering persistence time. These results suggest that other vole‐eating predators are likely to be threatened by dampening vole cycles throughout Europe.     

Reproductive responses of temperate and boreal Tengmalm's Owl Aegolius funereus populations to spatial and temporal variation in prey availability

Environmental variation across space and time can strongly influence life‐history strategies in vertebrates. It has been shown that the reproductive success of birds of prey is closely related to food availability. However, relatively little is known about intraspecific differences in reproductive success of birds in relation to varying ecological conditions across environmental gradients. We investigated the reproductive performance of Tengmalm's Owls Aegolius funereus in a temperate (Czech Republic, 50°N) and a boreal (Finland, 63°N) population in relation to long‐term variations in the abundance of their main prey (small rodents). Prey densities at the northern site were much higher, but there were also large inter‐annual fluctuations and years with steep summer declines of vole densities. Northern owls laid larger clutches but offspring production per nest was similar at both study sites. This resulted from higher nestling mortality in the northern population, especially in nests established later in the season. Despite much greater nesting losses due to predation by Pine Martens Martes martes, productivity at the population level was about four times greater at the temperate site, mainly due to the much higher breeding densities compared with Finland. Tengmalm's Owls at the temperate study site may benefit from relatively stable prey abundance, a more diverse prey community that offers alternative prey during vole scarcity, longer nights in summer that allow more time for foraging, and a lower level of interspecific competition with other vole‐specialized predators.     

Food supplementation and predation risk in harsh climate: interactive effects on abundance and body condition of tit species

Food availability and predation risk can have drastic impacts on animal behaviour and populations. The tradeoff between foraging and predator avoidance is crucial for animal survival and will strongly affect individual body mass, since large fat reserves are beneficial to reduce starvation but may increase predation risk. However, two‐factor experiments simultaneously investigating the interactive effects of food and predation risk, are still rare. We studied the effects of food supplementation and natural predation risk imposed by pygmy owls Glaucidium passerinum on the abundance and fat reserves of tit species in boreal forests of north Europe, from January to March in 2012 and in 2013. Food supplementation increased the number of individuals present in a given forest patch, whereas the level of predation risk had no clear impact on the abundance of tit species. The stronger impact of food supply respect to predation risk could be the consequence of the harsh winter conditions in north Europe, with constant below‐zero temperatures and only few (5–7 h) daylight hours available for foraging. Predation risk did not have obvious effects on tit abundance but influenced food consumption and, together with food supplementation, affected the deposition of subcutaneous fat in great tits Parus major. High owl predation risk had detrimental effects on body fat reserves, which may reduce over‐winter survival, but the costs imposed by pygmy owl risk were compensated when food was supplemented. The starvation–predation tradeoff faced by great tits in winter may thus be mediated through variation in body fat reserves. In small species living in harsh environment, this tradeoff appeared thus to be biased towards avoidance of starvation, at the cost of increasing predation risk.     

Flow‐mediated predator–prey dynamics influence fish populations in a tropical river

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Variation in the diet composition of a generalist predator, the red fox, in relation to season and density of main prey

Diet composition of a generalist predator, the red fox (Vulpes vulpes) in relation to season (winter or summer) and abundance of multi-annually cyclic voles was studied in western Finland from 1983 to 1995. The proportion of scats (PS; a total of 58 scats) including each food category was calculated for each prey group. Microtus voles (the field vole M. agrestis and the sibling vole M. rossiaemeridionalis) were the main prey group of foxes (PS = 0.55) and they frequently occurred in the scats both in the winter and summer (PSs 0.50 and 0.62, respectively). There was a positive correlation between the PSs of Microtus voles in the winter diet of foxes and the density indices of these voles in the previous autumn. Other microtine rodents (the bank vole Clethrionomys glareolus, the water vole Arvicola terrestris and the muskrat Ondatra zibethicus) were consumed more in winter than in summer. The unusually high small mustelid predation by red foxes (PS = approx. 0.10) in our study area gives qualitative support for the hypothesis on the limiting impact of mammalian predators on least weasel and stoat populations. None of the important prey groups was preyed upon more at low than at high densities of main prey (Microtus voles). This is consistent with the notion that red foxes are generalist predators that tend to opportunistically subsist on many prey groups. Among these prey groups, particularly hares and birds (including grouse), were frequently used as food by foxes.     

Vulnerability of black grouse hens to goshawk predation: result of food supply or predation facilitation?

The plant cycle hypothesis says that poor-quality food affects both herbivorous voles (Microtinae spp.) and grouse (Tetraonidae spp.) in vole decline years, leading to increased foraging effort in female grouse and thus a higher risk of predation by the goshawk Accipiter gentilis. Poor-quality food (mainly the bilberry Vaccinium myrtillus) for these herbivores is induced by seed masting failure in the previous year, when the bilberry is able to allocate resources for chemical defence (the mast depression hypothesis; MDH). The predation facilitation hypothesis (PFH) in turn states that increased searching activity of vole-eating predators during or after the decline year of voles disturbs incubating and brooding grouse females. The behaviours used by grouse to avoid these terrestrial predators make them more vulnerable to predation by goshawks. We tested the main predictions of the MDH and PFH by collecting long-term (21-year) data from black grouse Tetrao tetrix hens and cocks killed by breeding goshawks supplemented with indices of bilberry crop, vole abundance and small carnivores in the vicinity of Oulu, northern Finland. We did not find obvious support for the prediction of the MDH that there is a negative correlation of bilberry crop in year t with vole abundance and with predation index of black grouse hens in year t + 1. We did find obvious support for the prediction of the PFH that there is a positive correlation between predator abundance and predation index of grouse hens, because the stoat Mustela erminea abundance index was positively related to the predation index of black grouse hens. We suggest that changes in vulnerability of grouse hens may mainly be caused by the guild of vole-eating predators, who shift to alternative prey in the decline phase of the vole cycle, and thus chase grouse hens and chicks to the talons of goshawks and other avian predators.     

Owl winter irruptions as an indicator of small mammal population cycles in the boreal forest of eastern North America

Contrary to what is observed in Fennoscandia, it seems to be widely accepted that small mammals do not exhibit multi-annual population cycles in the boreal forest of North America. However, in the last thirty years, irruptions of vole predators such as owls have been reported by ornithologists south of the North American boreal forest. While such southerly irruptions have been associated in Fennoscandia with periods of low abundance of small mammals within their usual distribution range, their possible cyclic nature and their relationships to fluctuations in vole densities at northern latitudes has not yet been demonstrated in North America. With information collected from existing data-bases, we examined the presence of cycles in small mammals and their main avian predators by using temporal autocorrelation analyses. Winter invasions of boreal owls ( Aegolius funereus ) were periodic, with a 4-yr cycle in Québec. Populations of one species of small mammal, the red-backed vole ( Clethrionomys gapperi ), fluctuated periodically in boreal forests of Québec (north to 48°N). Boreal owls show invasion cycles which correspond to years of low density of red-backed voles, the main food item for this owl species. In addition, winter observations of northern hawk owls ( Surnia ulula ) and great gray owls ( Strix nebulosa ) south of their usual range increased in years of low density of red-backed voles. Our results suggest that a 4-yr population cycle exists in the eastern boreal forest of North America for voles and owls, which is very similar to the one observed in Fennoscandia.     

Coping with fast climate change in northern ecosystems: mechanisms underlying the population‐level response of a specialist avian predator

Northern ecosystems are facing unprecedented climate modifications, which pose a major threat for arctic species, especially the specialist predator guild. However, the mechanisms underlying responses of predators to climate change remain poorly understood. Climate can influence fitness parameters of predators either through reduced reproduction or survival following adverse weather conditions, or via changes in the population dynamics of their main prey. Here, we combined three overlapping long‐term datasets on the breeding density and parameters of a rodent‐specialist predator, the rough‐legged buzzard Buteo lagopus, its main prey population dynamics and climate variables, collected in subarctic areas of Finland and Norway, to assess the impact of changing climate on the predator reproductive response. Rough‐legged buzzards responded to ongoing climate change by advancing their laying date (0.1 d yr^?1 over the 21 yr of the study period), as a consequence of earlier snowmelt. However, we documented for the same period a decrease in breeding success, which principally resulted from an indirect effect of changes in the dynamics of their main prey, i.e. grey‐sided voles Microtus oeconomus, and not from the expected negative effect of unfavorable weather conditions during the brood‐rearing period on nestling survival. Additionally, we showed the striking impact of autumn and winter weather conditions on vole population growth rates in subarctic ecosystems, with a strong positive correlation between mean snow depth in autumn and winter and both winter and summer population growth rates. Our results highlighted that, in northern ecosystems, ongoing climate change has the potential to impact specialist predator species through two mechanistic linkages, which may in the long‐run, threaten the viability of their populations, and lead to potential severe cascading trophic effects at the ecosystem level.     

The role of food supply in the dispersal behaviour of juvenile Tawny Owls Strix aluco

We investigated the effects of food supply on decisions made by dispersing juvenile Tawny Owls Strix aluco in Kielder Forest, Northumberland, in 1996 and 1997. Field Voles Microtus agrestis were the main food of the owls and clear-cuts the main habitat for voles. A vole sign index was used to estimate vole abundance. In areas near to roosting owls, mean vole densities were 83 and 115 ha⁻¹ in 1996 and 1997, respectively. The prediction that birds would perform area-restricted searches when prey was more abundant was not confirmed. Moreover, we found no evidence that juveniles avoided conspecifics. Owls appeared to have an imperfect knowledge of the environment as they responded to variability in Field Vole densities by altering the time spent in different areas rather than by moving to areas with successively greater vole densities. Vole abundance explained 25.7% of the variation in the time spent in different areas. Movements did not decrease with time after dispersal, although the detection of such movements was prone to error. This study supports recent work suggesting that although dispersal may be initiated by a variety of proximate and ultimate factors, individual decisions made during dispersal may depend partly on environmental conditions encountered during the process itself.     

Role of prey and intraspecific density dependence on the population growth of an avian top predator

Exploring predator–prey systems in diverse ecosystems increases our knowledge about ecological processes. Predator population growth may be positive when conspecific density is low but predators also need areas with prey availability, associated with competition, which increases the risk of suffering losses but stabilises populations. We studied relationships between European rabbits Oryctolagus cuniculus (prey) and adult eagle owls Bubo bubo (predators) in south-western Europe. We assessed models explaining the predator population growth and stability. We estimated the abundance of rabbits and adult eagle owls during three years in eight localities of central-southern Spain. We explored models including rabbit and adult eagle owl abundance, accounting for yearly variations and including the locality as a random variable. We found that population growth of adult eagle owls was positive in situations with low conspecific abundance and tended to be negative but approaching equilibrium in situations of higher conspecific abundance. Population growth was also positively related to previous summer rabbit density when taking into account eagle owl conspecific abundance, possibly indicating that rabbits may support recruitment. Furthermore, abundance stability of adult eagle owls was positively related to previous winter–spring rabbit density, which could suggest predator population stabilisation through quick territory occupation in high-quality areas. These results exemplify the trade-off between prey availability and abundance of adult predators related to population growth and abundance stability in the eagle owl–rabbit system in south-western Europe. Despite rabbits have greatly declined during the last decades and eagle owls locally specialise on them, eagle owls currently have a favourable conservation status. As eagle owls are the only nocturnal raptor with such dependence on rabbits, this could point out that predators may overcome prey decreases in areas with favourable climate and prey in the absence of superior competitors with similar foraging mode.     

Effects of vole fluctuations on the population dynamics of the barn owl <Emphasis Type="Italic">Tyto alba</Emphasis>

Many predator species feed on prey that fluctuates in abundance from year to year. Birds of prey can face large fluctuations in food abundance i.e. small mammals, especially voles. These annual changes in prey abundance strongly affect the reproductive success and mortality of the individual predators and thus can be expected to influence their population dynamics and persistence. The barn owl, for example, shows large fluctuations in breeding success that correlate with the dynamics in voles, their main prey species. Analysis of the impact of fluctuations in vole abundance (their amplitude, peaks and lows, cycle length and regularity) with a simple predator prey model parameterized with literature data indicates population persistence is especially affected by years with low vole abundance. In these years the population can decline to low owl numbers such that the ensuing peak vole years cannot be exploited. This result is independent of the length and regularity of vole fluctuations. The relevance of this result for conservation of the barn owl and other birds of prey that show a numerical response to fluctuating prey species is discussed.     

Resource partitioning among forest owls in the River of No Return Wilderness,Idaho

Summary We studied resource partitioning among the forest owls in the River of No Return Wilderness, Idaho, during the winter and spring of 1980 and 1981. The owl assemblage consisted of five abundant species: pygmy (Glaucidium gnoma), saw-whet (Aegolius acadicus), boreal (A. funereus), western screech (Otus kennicottii), and great-horned (Bubo virginianus). Long-eared (Asio otus) and flammulated (O. flammeolus) owls were rarely observed. Information from the literature supplemented our data to describe the pattern of resource partitioning. Stepwise discriminant function analysis and multivariate analysis of variance revealed differences in macrohabitat and microhabitat. The saw-whet, boreal, western screech, and great-horned owls all preferred mammalian prey but exhibited habitat differences. They also differed in activity periods and food habits. The pygmy owl, a food and habitat generalist, foraged diurnally more than the other species and took a higher proportion of brids. The flammulated owl used areas within the territories of other owl species but specialized on forest insects. The observed pattern of resource use was interpreted to result from environmental factors, morphological limitations and interspecific competition. Differences in food and activity time, we suggest, result from environmental factors and differences in owl morphology, while present-day interspecific competition may be important in shaping habitat use. Experiments will be necessary to determine the causal factors responsible for segregation among the forest owls.     

Does feeding effort of Tengmalm's owls reflect offspring survival prospects in cyclic food conditions?

In an environment fluctuating in a predicatable manner with wide among-year variation in offspring mortality, fitness is largely influenced by the timing of reproductive investment. In vole-eating nocturnal Tengmalm's owls (Aegolius funereus), within-cycle variation in 1st-year survival of owlets is 3-fold as estimated by the recruitment probability of an offspring. It increases from the peak through the low to the increase phase of the vole cycle. We recorded prey delivery rates of males during a 3-year vole cycle using 4 h continuous recording at night. Males brought significantly more prey items per offspring in a low-vole year than in the increase and peak vole years. In the early night (10 p.m.–12 p.m.), males fed their families equally in the increase and peak vole years, whereas in the late night (0.01–2.00 a.m.) males reduced their feeding rate in the peak year but not in other years. Both prey number and prey mass per offspring were larger in the low and increase vole years than in the peak year, though in the peak phase food is most abundant. We suggest that feeding effort of site-tenacious, long-lived (mean lifespan 3.5 years) male owls culminates in the increase rather than in the peak phase of the vole cycle, because offspring survive better in the former phase.     

The numerical response of breeding Northern Saw-whet Owls Aegolius acadicus suggests nomadism

We used a 13-year time series of abundance estimates of breeding Northern Saw-whet Owls (Aegolius acadicus), and of small mammals from central Ontario, Canada, to assess the numerical response of the owls to small-mammal prey species. We found that the finite rate of increase of breeding owls was directly related to estimates of red-backed vole (Myodes gapperi) abundance. Thus, it appeared that the owls were nomadic, and made decisions about where to breed based on vole supply. The owls showed a much weaker response to deer mouse (Peromyscus maniculatus) abundance. Across all years, 55% of variation in owl rate of increase could be uniquely attributed to vole abundance, whereas only 3% could be attributed to mouse abundance. Consistent with the model of nomadism, there was only a weak relationship between the proportion of hatch-year owls caught at fall banding stations, and small-mammal abundance. Instead, it appeared that Northern Saw-whet Owls avoided years of widespread reproductive failure through the nomadic strategy of selecting breeding sites based on vole supply.