Density Estimation of the Endangered Udzungwa Red Colobus (Procolobus gordonorum) and Other Arboreal Primates in the Udzungwa Mountains Using Systematic Distance Sampling

Estimates of population density and abundance are essential for the assessment of nonhuman primate conservation status, especially in view of increasing threats. We undertook the most extensive systematic primate survey yet of the Udzungwa Mountains of Tanzania, an outstanding region for primate endemism and conservation in Africa. We used distance sampling to survey three arboreal monkey species, including the endangered and endemic Udzungwa red colobus (Procolobus gordonorum). Overall, we encountered 306 primate clusters over 287 km walked along 162 line transects. We found the lowest cluster densities for both red colobus and Angolan colobus (Colobus angolensis; 0.8 clusters/km²) in the least protected forest (Uzungwa Scarp Forest Reserve, US), while we found the highest densities (3.2 and 2.6 clusters/km² for red colobus; 3.2 and 2.7 clusters/km²for Angolan colobus) in two large and protected forests in the national park. Unexpectedly, Magombera, a small forest surrounded by plantations, had the highest densities of red colobus (5.0 clusters/km²), most likely a saturation effect due to the rapid shrinking of the forest. In contrast, Sykes’ monkey (Cercopithecus mitis monoides/moloneyi) had more similar densities across forests (3.1–6.6 clusters/km²), including US, suggesting greater resilience to disturbance in this species. For the endemic red colobus monkey, we estimated an abundance of 45–50,000 individuals across all forests, representing ca. 80% of the global population. Though this is a relatively high abundance, the increasing threats in some of the Udzungwa forests are of continued concern for the long-term survival of red colobus and other primates in the area.     

Primates Decline Rapidly in Unprotected Forests: Evidence from a Monitoring Program with Data Constraints

Growing threats to primates in tropical forests make robust and long-term population abundance assessments increasingly important for conservation. Concomitantly, monitoring becomes particularly relevant in countries with primate habitat. Yet monitoring schemes in these countries often suffer from logistic constraints and/or poor rigor in data collection, and a lack of consideration of sources of bias in analysis. To address the need for feasible monitoring schemes and flexible analytical tools for robust trend estimates, we analyzed data collected by local technicians on abundance of three species of arboreal monkey in the Udzungwa Mountains of Tanzania (two Colobus species and one Cercopithecus), an area of international importance for primate endemism and conservation. We counted primate social groups along eight line transects in two forest blocks in the area, one protected and one unprotected, over a span of 11 years. We applied a recently proposed open metapopulation model to estimate abundance trends while controlling for confounding effects of observer, site, and season. Primate populations were stable in the protected forest, while the colobines, including the endemic Udzungwa red colobus, declined severely in the unprotected forest. Targeted hunting pressure at this second site is the most plausible explanation for the trend observed. The unexplained variability in detection probability among transects was greater than the variability due to observers, indicating consistency in data collection among observers. There were no significant differences in both primate abundance and detectability between wet and dry seasons, supporting the choice of sampling during the dry season only based on minimizing practical constraints. Results show that simple monitoring routines implemented by trained local technicians can effectively detect changes in primate populations in tropical countries. The hierarchical Bayesian model formulation adopted provides a flexible tool to determine temporal trends with full account for any imbalance in the data set and for imperfect detection.     

Monkey Abundance and Social Structure in Two High-Elevation Forest Reserves in the Udzungwa Mountains of Tanzania

The effects of human activity on population and social structure are a pantropical concern for primate conservation. We compare census data and social group counts from two forests in the Udzungwa Mountains, Tanzania. The main aim is to relate differences within and between the forests to current theory on the effect of human disturbance on primate abundance and group size. The survey reveals the presence of the restricted-range red colobus, Procolobus gordonorum, in New Dabaga/Ulangambi Forest Reserve (NDUFR). The primate community of NDUFR is impoverished compared to that in Ndundulu forest. Red colobus and black-and-white colobus (Colobus angolensis palliatus) abundance and group size are lowest in NDUFR. Fission-fusion of red colobus social groups may be occurring in previously logged areas of both forests. Our observations are consistent with current theory on the effect of habitat degradation and hunting on primates, but the relative effects of the 2 factors could not be differentiated. We pooled the results with previous data to show that abundance of red colobus in the Udzungwa Mountains is lowest at high elevations. Low red colobus group sizes appear to be related to human activity rather than elevation. Black-and-white colobus and Sykes monkeys (Cercopithecus mitis) show no relationship with elevation. Future studies will require more detailed information on vegetation, diet and ranging patterns to interpret fully intraspecific variation in population demography and social structure in the Udzungwa Mountains.     

Vegetative predictors of primate abundance: utility and limitations of a fine-scale analysis

Determining ecological predictors of primate abundance is important for both theoretical and applied conservation management. For forest primates, research has focused on comparisons of primate abundance and vegetation in different forest blocks or forest compartments with different management histories. However, great variation in primate abundance often occurs within single forests, especially in mountainous areas or in areas with habitat mosaics due to past disturbance. Here we assess, for the first time, the usefulness and limitations of small-scale, within-transect analysis of vegetative parameters as predictors of primate abundance in a very heterogeneous forest habitat in the Udzungwa Mountains of Tanzania. Relative abundance of four species of diurnal primates was recorded over a period of 2.5 years by walking three census transects 48 times each. Tree size, density, species composition, and food plants were measured along the same census lines. The fine-scale relationship between primate abundance and vegetative variables was analyzed through generalized linear modeling applied to 58 segments of these three census lines. Each segment was 200 m in length. For all four primate species, we found significant associations between their abundance and selected vegetative variables. The abundance of the endemic and endangered Udzungwa red colobus Procolobus gordonorum was positively related to mean basal area of large trees (diameter at breast height greater than 20 cm) and to the species richness of their food plants. Considering the very great variation in primate abundance that was recorded among segments of the census lines, our approach proved useful in predicting the relationship between primate abundance and small-scale habitat differences. The main limitation of this study, however, was the relatively low-predictive power of the models for some species, especially the Angolan colobus Colobus angolensis. We discuss the potential reasons for this problem and suggest possible improvements for future studies.     

Long-term dynamics of wild primate populations across forests with contrasting protection in Tanzania

Anthropogenic activities driving tropical forests' loss imperil global biodiversity and provision of ecosystem services. In this context, systematic monitoring programs evaluating wildlife trends are essential. Non-human primates are relevant conservation targets since they represent vital components of tropical forests by serving as pollinators and seed dispersers. Here, we present primate group counts data collected over 19 years in a primate hotspot in Tanzania. We analyzed data with a hierarchical dynamic model accounting for imperfect detection that estimates local group abundance and temporal rates of change, to assess whether habitat protection explained trends of the arboreal and diurnal Peters' Angola colobus (Colobus angolensis palliatus), Udzungwa red colobus (Piliocolobus gordonorum), and Tanzania Sykes' monkey (Cercopithecus mitis subsp. moloneyi). We targeted populations occurring in two forest blocks with contrasting protection regimes, with one block impacted by targeted poaching of the two Colobus species. We found that these latter species were much less abundant in the more human impacted forest, underwent a rapid decline, and subsequently remained at low abundance and without signs of recovery once this forest was granted greater protection. Instead, Sykes' abundance did not differ between forests, and improved protection was associated with a slight increase in abundance. Age class composition for social groups of both Colobus species differed between forests, indicating altered births and survivorship rates in the impacted forest. Results suggest that targeted hunting can prevent recovery for several years and even after increased habitat protection. Our approach appears valuable to monitor population dynamics over the long term, highlighting species-specific variations in both vulnerability to anthropogenic disturbance and recovery patterns in primate populations.     

An Evaluation of Survey Methods for Estimating Northern Bobwhite Abundance in Southern Texas

Abstract: Distance sampling has been identified as a reliable and well-suited method for estimating northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) density. However, distance sampling using walked transects requires intense sampling to obtain precise estimates, thus making the technique impractical for large acreages. Researchers have addressed this limitation by either resorting to the use of indices (e.g., morning covey-call surveys) or incorporating the use of aerial surveys with distance sampling. Both approaches remain relatively untested. Our objectives were to 1) compare density estimates among morning covey-call surveys, helicopter transects, and walked transects; 2) test a critical assumption of distance sampling pertinent to helicopter surveys (i.e., all objects on line are detected); and 3) evaluate the underlying premise of morning covey-call surveys (i.e., that the no. of calling coveys correlates with bobwhite density). Our study was conducted on 3 study sites in Brooks County, Texas, USA, during October to December, 2001 to 2005. Comparisons between walked transects and morning covey-call surveys involved the entire 5-year data set, whereas helicopter transects involved only the latter 2 years. Density estimates obtained from helicopter transects were similar to walked transect estimates for both years. We documented a detection probability on the helicopter transect line of 70 ± 10.2% (% ± SE; n = 20 coveys). Morning covey-call surveys yielded similar density estimates to walked transect estimates during only 2 of 5 years, when walked transect estimates were the least accurate and precise. We detected a positive relationship (R² = 0.51; 95% CI for slope: 29.5–53.1; n = 63 observations) between covey density and number of coveys heard calling. We conclude that helicopter transects appear to be a viable alternative to walked transects for estimating density of bobwhites. Morning covey-call surveys appear to be a poor method to estimate absolute abundance and to depict general population trajectories.     

Primates in Human-Modified and Fragmented Landscapes: The Conservation Relevance of Modelling Habitat and Disturbance Factors in Density Estimation

Accurate density estimations of threatened animal populations is essential for management and conservation. This is particularly critical for species living in patchy and altered landscapes, as is the case for most tropical forest primates. In this study, we used a hierarchical modelling approach that incorporates the effect of environmental covariates on both the detection (i.e. observation) and the state (i.e. abundance) processes of distance sampling. We applied this method to already published data on three arboreal primates of the Udzungwa Mountains of Tanzania, including the endangered and endemic Udzungwa red colobus (Procolobus gordonorum). The area is a primate hotspot at continental level. Compared to previous, ‘canonical’ density estimates, we found that the inclusion of covariates in the modelling makes the inference process more informative, as it takes in full account the contrasting habitat and protection levels among forest blocks. The correction of density estimates for imperfect detection was especially critical where animal detectability was low. Relative to our approach, density was underestimated by the canonical distance sampling, particularly in the less protected forest. Group size had an effect on detectability, determining how the observation process varies depending on the socio-ecology of the target species. Lastly, as the inference on density is spatially-explicit to the scale of the covariates used in the modelling, we could confirm that primate densities are highest in low-to-mid elevations, where human disturbance tend to be greater, indicating a considerable resilience by target monkeys in disturbed habitats. However, the marked trend of lower densities in unprotected forests urgently calls for effective forest protection.     

A simple alternative to line transects of nests for estimating orangutan densities

We conducted a validation of the line transect technique to estimate densities of orangutan (Pongo pygmaeus) nests in a Bornean swamp forest, and compared these results with density estimates based on nest counts in plots and on female home ranges. First, we examined the accuracy of the line transect method. We found that the densities based on a pass in both directions of two experienced pairs of observers was 27% below a combined sample based on transect walks by eight pairs of observers, suggesting that regular line-transect densities may seriously underestimate true densities. Second, we compared these results with those obtained by nest counts in 0.2-ha plots. This method produced an estimated 15.24 nests/ha, as compared to 10.0 and 10.9, respectively, by two experienced pairs of observers who walked a line transect in both directions. Third, we estimated orangutan densities based on female home range size and overlap and the proportion of females in the population, which produced a density of 4.25–4.5 individuals/km² . Converting nest densities into orangutan densities, using locally estimated parameters for nest production rate and proportion of nest builders in the population, we found that density estimates based on the line transect results of the most experienced pairs on a double pass were 2.82 and 3.08 orangutans/km², based on the combined line transect data are 4.04, and based on plot counts are 4.30. In this swamp forest, plot counts therefore give more accurate estimates than do line transects. We recommend that this new method be evaluated in other forest types as well.     

Primate abundance along five transect lines at Ngogo, Kibale National Park, Uganda

Using the line transect methods, I studied the primate density at Ngogo, Kibale National Park, Uganda for 18 months. Comparisons with other studies show that the population of red colobus monkeys (Procolobus rufomitratus) and blue monkeys (Cercopithecus mitis) is declining, whereas the populations of black-and-white colobus (Colobus guereza), red-tailed monkeys (Cercopithecus ascanius), grey-cheeked mangabeys (Lophocebus albigena), baboons (Papio anubis), and chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes) remain constant or slightly increase. In this paper, I compare data on density from this study to data from previous and recent censuses at Ngogo and with data from other sites in the Kibale forest to examine the stability of primate populations. Furthermore, I test the hypothesis that the changes in red colobus and blue monkey density are due to changes in the forest structure and abundance of their most selected feeding trees, and show that changes in forest composition cannot account for changes in their red colobus abundance, but that hunting by chimpanzees provides a reasonable explanation.     

Status of diurnal primate populations at the former settlement of a displaced village in Cameroon

To understand whether or not primate populations recover in areas of abandoned human settlements, data are required that allow for site‐specific comparison over time. Here, we present baseline information on the presence/absence and relative abundance of primate species at the abandoned settlement of the Ekundukundu village, relocated out of the Korup National Park in 2000. Between July 2007 and March 2008, 62 km of transects was surveyed for sightings and calls of primates. All eight species of diurnal primates reported in the KNP were confirmed: Cercopithecus nictitans ludio, C. mona, C. erythrotis camerunensis, C. pogonias, Procolobus pennantii preussi, Cercocebus torquatus, Mandrillus leucophaeus leucophaeus, and Pan troglodytes vellerosus. At old Ekundukundu, C. nictitans accounted for 65% of all primate group sightings. Overall, sighting frequency of primates (0.55 groups/km) was not significantly different from other park sectors surveyed by a previous observer (J. Linder) in 2004–2005. The data reported here will be useful in the long‐term monitoring of primate populations in regenerating forest habitats of earlier human settlements. Am. J. Primatol. 72:645–652, 2010. © 2010 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.     

Thirty Years of Research in Kibale National Park,Uganda, Reveals a Complex Picture for Conservation

Kibale National Park, Uganda, has a rich and abundant primate community and a complicated history of anthropogenic disturbance. Moreover, it has been the focus of over 30 yr of research and has received considerable attention from nongovernmental and governmental conservation organizations. As a result, Kibale serves as a valuable case study with which to evaluate the factors that regulate primate population density and the challenges of deriving generalizations for conservation. We review the impact of logging and forest fragmentation on primate population density and trace the efficacy of various conservation strategies. A 28-yr comparison of primate abundance in logged and unlogged forests and a 10-yr study of forest dynamics showed that primate recovery in logged areas is generally slow or not occurring at all for some species, which is likely driven by the fact that the forest is not recovering as expected. No primate species characteristic predicted their ability to live in forest fragments around Kibale. While a nutritional model was useful to predict the abundance of colobus in forest fragments outside of Kibale, a 5-yr study revealed that human land-use practices are more fundamentally shaping population dynamics. We evaluate data on primate abundance in light of Milton’s protein/fiber model to predict colobine biomass. We demonstrate that while the model can predict colobus biomass in pristine habitats, the 2 colobus species respond differently to disturbance. We offer suggestions for future conservation research and consider strategies to conserve forested national parks based on experiences gained over 30 yr.     

Tana river red colobus and crested mangabey: Results of recent censuses

Censuses of the Tana River red colobus (Colobus badius rufomitratus) and crested mangabey (Cercocebus galeritus galeritus), primate species endemic to riverine forests of the lower Tana River in eastern Kenya, showed significant population declines for both species between the mid-1970s and 1980s. Red colobus declined in terms of group size and number of groups per forest; the mangabey population declined only in numbers of groups per forest. There was no significant change in mean group age/sex composition between the two time periods for either species. Differences in the feeding and ranging ecology of the two species may explain why the mangabey population suffered a less severe decline than the red colobus. Similarities in census results over 3 years in the late 1980s suggest that the primate populations are no longer decreasing.     

Demographic Variation Among Udzungwa Red Colobus in Relation to Gross Ecological and Sociological Parameters

We evaluated variation in group size and composition of Udzungwa red colobus (Procolobus gordonorum) in relation to gross-habitat and sociological parameters. The endangered species is endemic to the Udzungwa Mountains and nearby forests in the Kilombero Valley of south-central Tanzania. We counted 63 groups in 10 forests, ranging in altitude from 250 to 1,800 m. Group size ranged from 7 to 83 (x = 36.3) individuals and adult sex ratios (females/male) ranged from 1.5 to 7.3 (x = 3.5), excluding solitary individuals. Group size was influenced by several habitat parameters, including tree density, degree of deciduousness, and forest size. Groups were largest in large blocks of mature, moist, mixed evergreen and semideciduous forests, but group size is not correlated with altitude. Groups in a highly degraded forest appeared to have fission-fusion societies. The effect of habitat quality on age-sex composition of groups was most apparent in natality and less so in survivorship of adult females and juveniles. The number of adult males in groups accounted for 50% of the variance in group size and 34–39% of the variance in numbers of adult females in groups. Habitat quality affects natality more than demographic parameters do. Groups with a low proportion of adult females had greater juvenile survivorship, perhaps because of lower food competition between these two classes. We proffer hypotheses based on our study and previous intertaxonal comparisons to explain cause and effect relationships between habitat quality and demography. Finally, our study demonstrates the importance of large blocks of old-growth forest to the conservation of Udzungwa red colobus, and we make recommendations for conservation and research.     

A novel landscape genetic approach demonstrates the effects of human disturbance on the Udzungwa red colobus monkey (Procolobus gordonorum)

A comprehensive understanding of how human disturbance affects tropical forest ecosystems is critical for the mitigation of future losses in global biodiversity. Although many genetic studies of tropical forest fragmentation have been conducted to provide insight into this issue, relatively few have incorporated landscape data to explicitly test the effects of human disturbance on genetic differentiation among populations. In this study, we use a newly developed landscape genetic approach that relies on a genetic algorithm to simultaneously optimize resistance surfaces to investigate the effects of human disturbance in the Udzungwa Mountains of Tanzania, which is an important part of a universally recognized biodiversity hotspot. Our study species is the endangered Udzungwa red colobus monkey (Procolobus gordonorum), which is endemic to the Udzungwa Mountains and a known indicator species that thrives in large and well-protected blocks of old growth forest. Population genetic analyses identified significant population structure among Udzungwa red colobus inhabiting different forest blocks, and Bayesian cluster analyses identified hierarchical structure. Our new method for creating composite landscape resistance models found that the combination of fire density on the landscape and distance to the nearest village best explains the genetic structure observed. These results demonstrate the effects that human activities are having in an area of high global conservation priority and suggest that this ecosystem is in a precarious state. Our study also illustrates the ability of our novel landscape genetic method to detect the impacts of relatively recent landscape features on a long-lived species.     

The role of local and regional processes in shaping dung beetle communities in tropical forest plantations in Borneo

We examine whether rain forest dung beetle species found in plantations in Sabah, northern Borneo, tend to be endemic or geographically widespread. In addition, linear regressions of abundance vs. distance from a major river in primary rain forest are calculated to see if species found in plantation forest show affinity to one specific biotope (riverine vs. interior forest) in their natural habitat. Results show that 14 of the 40 species recorded from plantations are endemic to Borneo. Only edge‐specialist endemic species are found in plantation forest, with no interior‐forest specialists recorded. Data suggest that endemic species that are adapted to more exposed conditions in primary rain forest, such as riverine species, can in some instances tolerate man‐made habitats. Twenty‐nine species (±SE 4.0) per transect are recorded from plantation transects, whereas 44.2 (±1.7 SE) are recorded in primary rain forest. As species richness is much lower in plantations than natural forest, implying loss of biodiversity, we conclude that measures of biogeographic distinctiveness, whereby endemic species confer higher values, may be misleading unless they take into account edge‐affinity. Local‐ as well as regional‐distributional data may therefore be needed to interpret correctly patterns of species assemblages in derived forest ecosystems.     

Estimating the population size of the Sanje mangabey (Cercocebus sanjei) using acoustic distance sampling

The Sanje mangabey (Cercocebus sanjei) is endemic to the Udzungwa Mountains, Tanzania, and is classified as Endangered due to its putatively declining population size, habitat degradation and fragmentation. Previous population size estimates have ranged from 1,350 to 3,500 individuals, with the last direct survey being conducted 15 years before the present study. Previous estimates are now thought to have underestimated the population due to a limited knowledge of group and habitat size, nonsystematic approaches and the use of visual methods that are not suitable for surveying the Sanje mangabey with its semi-terrestrial and elusive behaviors. We used an acoustic survey method with observers recording the distinctive “whoop-gobble” vocalization produced by mangabeys and point transect distance sampling to model a detection function and estimate abundance. Twenty-eight surveys were conducted throughout the two forests where Sanje mangabeys are found: Mwanihana forest in the Udzungwa Mountains National Park (n = 13), and the Uzungwa Scarp Nature Reserve (n = 15). Group density was found to be significantly lower in the relatively unprotected Uzungwa Scarp forest (0.15 groups/km²; 95% CI: 0.08–0.27) compared to the well-protected Mwanihana forest (0.29 groups/km²; 95% CI: 0.19–0.43; p = .03). We estimate that there are 1,712 (95% CI: 1,141–2,567) individuals in Mwanihana and 1,455 (95% CI: 783–2,702) in the Uzungwa Scarp, resulting in a total population size of 3,167 (95% CI: 2,181–4,596) individuals. The difference in group density between sites is likely a result of the differing protection status and levels of enforcement between the forests, suggesting that protection of the Uzungwa Scarp should be increased to encourage recovery of the population, and reduce the threat of degradation and hunting. Our results contribute to the reassessment of the species' IUCN Red List status and informing management and conservation action planning.     

A comparison of image and observer based aerial surveys of narwhal

From 25 to 30 August 2014 a double‐observer line‐transect survey was conducted over Melville Bay, home to one of two summering populations of narwhal (Monodon monoceros) off West Greenland. A total of 1,932 linear kilometers was surveyed along 33 transects. In addition to using observers, the aircraft was equipped with two oblique cameras to capture a comparable data set. Analysts reviewed the images for narwhal sightings, which were then matched to the observer sightings. The objectives of the study were to determine advantages and disadvantages of the detection capabilities of both methodologies, and to conduct a comparative analysis of population abundance estimates. Correcting for the truncated detection distance of the images (500 m), the image analysts recorded more sightings (62) and a lower mean group size (2.2) compared to aerial observers (36 and 3.5, respectively), resulting in comparable numbers of individuals detected by both platforms (135 vs. 126). The abundance estimate based on the image sightings was 2,536 (CV = 0.51, 95% CI: 1,003–6,406), which was not significantly different from the aerial observers estimate of 2,596 individuals (CV = 0.51; 95% CI: 961–7,008). This study supports the potential of using UAS for marine mammal abundance studies.     

Spatial distribution of primates in a mosaic of colonizing and old growth forest at Ngogo, Kibale National Park, Uganda

Primate censuses were conducted in a mosaic of colonizing (two locations) and old-growth forests using line transect methods at the Ngogo study site, Kibale National Park, Uganda. Black and white colobus monkeys (Colobus guereza) were encountered more frequently in the colonizing forests than in the old growth forest, while chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes) were encountered more frequently in the old growth forest than in colonizing forests. Although not significant, results suggest that blue monkeys (Cercopithecus mitis) frequented colonizing forests more often than old growth forest. The encounter rates of mangabey (Lophocebus albigena), and redtail (Cercopithecus ascanius) groups were ambiguous with their density being higher in some colonizing forests but not others as compared to old-growth forest. No significant differences were detected for baboons (Papio anubis), Lhoests (Cercopithecus lhoesti), and red colobus monkeys (Piliocolobus tephroscales). The conversion of forests to farmland is one of the major problems encountered in primate conservation. This study shows that secondary forests replacing anthropogenic grasslands have the potential of supporting some primate species such as black and white colobus, redtail monkeys, and possibly blue monkeys. Therefore, such areas should not be given up but should be conserved for the benefit of primates that can survive in secondary forests; as the forests mature further, primate species that are adapted to old growth forest will colonize the area provided there is a nearby source.     

Group Size Dynamics over 15+ Years in an African Forest Primate Community

Group size affects many aspects of the ecology and social organization of animals. We investigated group size stability for five primate species in Kibale National Park, Uganda from 1996 to 2011 at three nested spatial scales. Survey data indicated that group sizes did not change for most species, with the exception of red colobus monkeys (Procolobus rufomitratus), in which group size increased at all spatial scales. Mangabey (Lophocebus albigena) group size increased in old‐growth forest, but the sample size and increase were small. To augment this survey data, we collected several years of demographic data on three habituated groups of redtail monkeys (Cercopithecus ascanius), eight groups of black‐and‐white colobus (Colobus guereza), and one red colobus group. The red colobus group increased from 59 to 104 individuals, while redtail monkey and black‐and‐white colobus group sizes were stable, mirroring our survey results. To understand mechanisms behind group size changes in red colobus versus stability in other primates, we monitored forest dynamics at two spatial scales between 1990 and 2013, considered changes in predator population, and explored evidence of disease dynamics. The cumulative size of all trees and red colobus food trees increased over 24 yr, suggesting that changing food availability was driving group size changes for red colobus, while predation and disease played lesser roles. Overall, our results and evidence of changing primate densities suggest that the Kibale primate community is in a non‐equilibrium state. We suggest future conservation and management efforts take this into consideration.     

Coping with Forest Fragmentation: The Primates of Kibale National Park,Uganda

A goal of conservation biology is to determine which types of species are most susceptible to habitat disturbance and which types of disturbed habitats can support particular species. We studied 20 forest fragments outside of Kibale National Park, Uganda, to address this question. At each patch, we determined the presence of primate species, tree species composition, patch size, and distance to nearest patch. We collected demographic, behavioral, and dietary data for Abyssinian black-and-white colobus (Colobus guereza). Black-and-white colobus and red-tailed guenons (Cercopithecus ascanius) were in almost all fragments; Pennant's red colobus (Procolobus pennantii) and chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes) were in some fragments; and blue monkeys (Cercopithecus mitis) and gray-cheeked mangabeys (Lophocebus albigena) were absent from all fragments. No species characteristics—home range, body size, group size, or degree of frugivory—predicted the ability of species to live in patches. No characteristics of patches—area, distance to the nearest patch, distance to Kibale, or number of food trees present—predicted the presence of a particular species in a patch, but distance to Kibale may have influenced presence of red colobus. Black-and-white colobus group size was significantly smaller in the forest patches than in the continuous forest of Kibale. For a group of black-and-white colobus in one patch, food plant species and home range size were very different from those of a group within Kibale. However, their activity budget and plant parts eaten were quite similar to those of the Kibale group. The lack of strong predictive variables as well as differences between other studies of fragmentation and ours caution against making generalizations about primate responses to fragmentation.