Farm Scale Evaluations of spring-sown genetically modified herbicide-tolerant crops: a statistical assessment

Primary results from the Farm Scale Evaluations (FSEs) of spring-sown genetically modified herbicide-tolerant crops were published in 2003. We provide a statistical assessment of the results for count data, addressing issues of sample size (n), efficiency, power, statistical significance, variability and model selection. Treatment effects were consistent between rare and abundant species. Coefficients of variation averaged 73% but varied widely. High variability in vegetation indicators was usually offset by large n and treatment effects, whilst invertebrate indicators often had smaller n and lower variability; overall, achieved power was broadly consistent across indicators. Inferences about treatment effects were robust to model misspecification, justifying the statistical model adopted. As expected, increases in n would improve detectability of effects whilst, for example, halving n would have resulted in a loss of significant results of about the same order. 40% of the 531 published analyses had greater than 80% power to detect a 1.5-fold effect; reducing n by one-third would most likely halve the number of analyses meeting this criterion. Overall, the data collected vindicated the initial statistical power analysis and the planned replication. The FSEs provide a valuable database of variability and estimates of power under various sample size scenarios to aid planning of more efficient future studies.     

On the rationale and interpretation of the Farm Scale Evaluations of genetically modified herbicide-tolerant crops

Farmland biodiversity and food webs were compared in conventional and genetically modified herbicide-tolerant (GMHT) crops of beet (Beta vulgaris L.), maize (Zea mays L.) and both spring and winter oilseed rape (Brassica napus L.). GMHT and conventional varieties were sown in a split-field experimental design, at 60-70 sites for each crop, spread over three starting years beginning in 2000. This paper provides a background to the study and the rationale for its design and interpretation. It shows how data on environment, field management and the biota are used to assess the current state of the ecosystem, to define the typical arable field and to devise criteria for selecting, sampling and auditing experimental sites in the Farm Scale Evaluations. The main functional and taxonomic groups in the habitat are ranked according to their likely sensitivity to GMHT cropping, and the most responsive target organisms are defined. The value of the seedbank as a baseline and as an indicator of historical trends is proposed. Evidence from experiments during the twentieth century is analysed to show that large changes in field management have affected sensitive groups in the biota by ca. 50% during a year or short run of years--a figure against which to assess any positive or negative effects of GMHT cropping. The analysis leads to a summary of factors that were, and were not, examined in the first 3 years of the study and points to where modelling can be used to extrapolate the effects to the landscape and the agricultural region.     

Cost-efficacy in measuring farmland biodiversity – lessons from the Farm Scale Evaluations of genetically modified herbicide-tolerant crops

Measuring farmland biodiversity is time‐consuming and costly. Operational data from the Farm Scale Evaluation of genetically modified crops project were collated to identify the financial and time costs of each of the 14 protocols used. A subset of 113 of the 266 experimental sites was used. The mean overall cost per site was £19 453 (£ of 2002). Laboratory time was almost 2.5 times that in the field. The most costly protocol was soil surface invertebrates because it required species level identification. The ‘bees and butterflies’ protocol at £418 per site was particularly cost‐effective. The six vegetation protocols accounted for 65% and the six arthropod protocols accounted for 29% of the total costs. The recommended reduction from 12 to 3 transects would have saved £1356 per site, 6% of total budget. A minimalist approach using the single‐season seedbank protocol would cost £3437 per site. The effect of geographical spread of sites on cost was small because of clustering of sites and the large number of protocols. Careful selection of ecological indicators can save considerable resources.     

Responses of plants and invertebrate trophic groups to contrasting herbicide regimes in the Farm Scale Evaluations of genetically modified herbicide-tolerant crops

Effects of genetically modified herbicide-tolerant (GMHT) and conventional crop management on invertebrate trophic groups (herbivores, detritivores, pollinators, predators and parasitoids) were compared in beet, maize and spring oilseed rape sites throughout the UK. These trophic groups were influenced by season, crop species and GMHT management. Many groups increased twofold to fivefold in abundance between early and late summer, and differed up to 10-fold between crop species. GMHT management superimposed relatively small (less than twofold), but consistent, shifts in plant and insect abundance, the extent and direction of these effects being dependent on the relative efficacies of comparable conventional herbicide regimes. In general, the biomass of weeds was reduced under GMHT management in beet and spring oilseed rape and increased in maize compared with conventional treatments. This change in resource availability had knock-on effects on higher trophic levels except in spring oilseed rape where herbivore resource was greatest. Herbivores, pollinators and natural enemies changed in abundance in the same directions as their resources, and detritivores increased in abundance under GMHT management across all crops. The result of the later herbicide application in GMHT treatments was a shift in resource from the herbivore food web to the detritivore food web. The Farm Scale Evaluations have demonstrated over 3 years and throughout the UK that herbivores, detritivores and many of their predators and parasitoids in arable systems are sensitive to the changes in weed communities that result from the introduction of new herbicide regimes.     

Invertebrates and vegetation of field margins adjacent to crops subject to contrasting herbicide regimes in the Farm Scale Evaluations of genetically modified herbicide-tolerant crops

The effects of management of genetically modified herbicide-tolerant (GMHT) crops on adjacent field margins were assessed for 59 maize, 66 beet and 67 spring oilseed rape sites. Fields were split into halves, one being sown with a GMHT crop and the other with the equivalent conventional non-GMHT crop. Margin vegetation was recorded in three components of the field margins. Most differences were in the tilled area, with fewer smaller effects mirroring them in the verge and boundary. In spring oilseed rape fields, the cover, flowering and seeding of plants were 25%, 44% and 39% lower, respectively, in the GMHT uncropped tilled margins. Similarly, for beet, flowering and seeding were 34% and 39% lower, respectively, in the GMHT margins. For maize, the effect was reversed, with plant cover and flowering 28% and 67% greater, respectively, in the GMHT half. Effects on butterflies mirrored these vegetation effects, with 24% fewer butterflies in margins of GMHT spring oilseed rape. The likely cause is the lower nectar supply in GMHT tilled margins and crop edges. Few large treatment differences were found for bees, gastropods or other invertebrates. Scorching of vegetation by herbicide-spray drift was on average 1.6% on verges beside conventional crops and 3.7% beside GMHT crops, the difference being significant for all three crops.     

Sensitive dependencies and separation distances for genetically modified herbicide-tolerant crops

The amount of land available for the coexistent growing of both organic and genetically modified herbicide-tolerant (GMHT) crops depends on the separation distance between the two types of crop. The form of the decline in the proportion of land available for growing one of these crop types due to increasing separation distance is linear on a suitable scale, but with a slope and intercept that are sensitively dependent on the proportion of the other crop already present. Spatially explicit simulations from realistic scenarios indicate that a major increase in separation distances, currently under review by the UK government, may have serious implications for the future coexistence of organic and GMHT crops in the UK.     

Invertebrate responses to the management of genetically modified herbicide-tolerant and conventional spring crops. I. Soil-surface-active invertebrates

The effects of herbicide management of genetically modified herbicide-tolerant (GMHT) beet, maize and spring oilseed rape on the abundance and diversity of soil-surface-active invertebrates were assessed. Most effects did not differ between years, environmental zones or initial seedbanks or between sugar and fodder beet. This suggests that the results may be treated as generally applicable to agricultural situations throughout the UK for these crops. The direction of the effects was evenly balanced between increases and decreases in counts in the GMHT compared with the conventional treatment. Most effects involving a greater capture in the GMHT treatments occurred in maize, whereas most effects involving a smaller capture were in beet and spring oilseed rape. Differences between GMHT and conventional crop herbicide management had a significant effect on the capture of most surface-active invertebrate species and higher taxa tested in at least one crop, and these differences reflected the phenology and ecology of the invertebrates. Counts of carabids that feed on weed seeds were smaller in GMHT beet and spring oilseed rape but larger in GMHT maize. In contrast, collembolan detritivore counts were significantly larger under GMHT crop management.     

转基因作物中2种除草剂抗性基因aad1和dmo的PCR检测方法

【背景】抗除草剂转基因作物是全球种植面积最大的一类转基因植物,以除草剂抗性基因作为检测靶标的分子鉴定方法的研究与应用,对转基因生物安全的检测与监测有重要意义。【方法】根据除草剂抗性基因aad1和dmo的核苷酸序列设计PCR检测引物,并进行PCR反应体系优化、方法特异性、灵敏度、再现性等方面的测试,分别建立aad1基因和dmo基因的特异性PCR检测方法。【结果】建立的PCR检测方法在56~64℃的退火温度范围内均能获得一致性结果,具有良好的稳健性。该方法可将含有aad1基因和dmo基因的转基因作物与其他转基因作物区分开,其灵敏度可分别达到20个拷贝和40个拷贝。通过将aad1基因和dmo基因的检测引物放入同一管PCR反应体系中,还能在一次PCR中同时检测这2个靶标基因,双重PCR的检测灵敏度与单一PCR一致。【结论与意义】建立的分子方法可精准检测出含有aad1基因和dmo基因的转基因作物,具有特异性强、灵敏度高的特点,为抗除草剂转基因作物的筛选检测提供了可靠的技术支撑。     

Invertebrate responses to the management of genetically modified herbicide-tolerant and conventional spring crops. II. Within-field epigeal and aerial arthropods

The effects of the management of genetically modified herbicide-tolerant (GMHT) crops on the abundances of aerial and epigeal arthropods were assessed in 66 beet, 68 maize and 67 spring oilseed rape sites as part of the Farm Scale Evaluations of GMHT crops. Most higher taxa were insensitive to differences between GMHT and conventional weed management, but significant effects were found on the abundance of at least one group within each taxon studied. Numbers of butterflies in beet and spring oilseed rape and of Heteroptera and bees in beet were smaller under the relevant GMHT crop management, whereas the abundance of Collembola was consistently greater in all GMHT crops. Generally, these effects were specific to each crop type, reflected the phenology and ecology of the arthropod taxa, were indirect and related to herbicide management. These results apply generally to agriculture across Britain, and could be used in mathematical models to predict the possible long-term effects of the widespread adoption of GMHT technology. The results for bees and butterflies relate to foraging preferences and might or might not translate into effects on population densities, depending on whether adoption leads to forage reductions over large areas. These species, and the detritivore Collembola, may be useful indicator species for future studies of GMHT management.     

Weed seed resources for birds in fields with contrasting conventional and genetically modified herbicide-tolerant crops

The UK Farm Scale Evaluations (FSEs) have shown that the use of broad spectrum herbicides on genetically modified herbicide-tolerant (GMHT) crops can have dramatic effects on weed seed production compared to management of conventional varieties. Here, we use FSE data and information on bird diets to determine how GMHT cropping might change the food resources available to farmland birds. More than 60 fields of each of four crops, spring- and winter-sown oilseed rape, beet and maize, were split, one half being sown with a conventional variety, the other with a GMHT variety. Seed rain from weeds known to be important in the diets of 17 granivorous farmland bird species was measured under the two treatments. In beet and spring oilseed rape, rain of weed seeds important in the diets of 16 bird species was significantly reduced in GMHT compared to conventional halves; for no species did it increase. In winter oilseed rape, rain of weed seeds important in the diets of 10 species was significantly reduced in GMHT halves; for only one species did it increase significantly. By contrast, in maize, rain of weed seeds important in the diets of seven species was significantly greater in GMHT halves; for no species was it reduced. Treatment effects for the total weed seed energy available to each bird species were very similar to those for seed rain alone. Measuring the effects on individual bird species was outside the scope of this study. Despite this, these results suggest that should beet, spring and winter rape crops in the UK be largely replaced by GMHT varieties and managed as in the FSEs, this would markedly reduce important food resources for farmland birds, many of which declined during the last quarter of the twentieth century. By contrast, GMHT maize would be beneficial to farmland birds.     

Effects of genetically modified herbicide-tolerant cropping systems on weed seedbanks in two years of following crops

The Farm Scale Evaluations (FSEs) showed that genetically modified herbicide-tolerant (GMHT) cropping systems could influence farmland biodiversity because of their effects on weed biomass and seed production. Recently published results for winter oilseed rape showed that a switch to GMHT crops significantly affected weed seedbanks for at least 2 years after the crops were sown, potentially causing longer-term effects on other taxa. Here, we seek evidence for similar medium-term effects on weed seedbanks following spring-sown GMHT crops, using newly available data from the FSEs. Weed seedbanks following GMHT maize were significantly higher than following conventional varieties for both the first and second years, while by contrast, seedbanks following GMHT spring oilseed rape were significantly lower over this period. Seedbanks following GMHT beet were smaller than following conventional crops in the first year after the crops had been sown, but this difference was much reduced by the second year for reasons that are not clear. These new data provide important empirical evidence for longer-term effects of GMHT cropping on farmland biodiversity.     

Weeds in fields with contrasting conventional and genetically modified herbicide-tolerant crops. II. Effects on individual species

We compared the effects of the management of genetically modified herbicide-tolerant (GMHT) and conventional beet, maize and spring oilseed rape on 12 weed species. We sampled the seedbank before and after cropping. During the season we counted plants and measured seed rain and biomass. Ratios of densities were used to calculate emergence, survival, reproduction and seedbank change. Treatments significantly affected the biomass of six species in beet, eight in maize and five in spring oilseed rape. The effects were generally consistent, with biomass lower in GMHT beet and spring oilseed rape and higher in GMHT maize. With few exceptions, emergence was higher in GMHT crops. Subsequent survival was significantly lowered for eight species in beet and six in spring oilseed rape in the GMHT treatments. It was increased for five species in maize and one in spring oilseed rape. Significant effects on seedbank change were found for four species. However, for many species in beet and spring oilseed rape (19 out of 24 cases), seed densities were lower in the seedbank after GMHT cropping. These differences compounded over time would result in large decreases in population densities of arable weeds. In maize, populations may increase.     

Biosafety management and commercial use of genetically modified crops in China

As a developing country with relatively limited arable land, China is making great efforts for development and use of genetically modified (GM) crops to boost agricultural productivity. Many GM crop varieties have been developed in China in recent years; in particular, China is playing a leading role in development of insect-resistant GM rice lines. To ensure the safe use of GM crops, biosafety risk assessments are required as an important part of the regulatory oversight of such products. With over 20 years of nationwide promotion of agricultural biotechnology, a relatively well-developed regulatory system for risk assessment and management of GM plants has been developed that establishes a firm basis for safe use of GM crops. So far, a total of seven GM crops involving ten events have been approved for commercial planting, and 5 GM crops with a total of 37 events have been approved for import as processing material in China. However, currently only insect-resistant Bt cotton and disease-resistant papaya have been commercially planted on a large scale. The planting of Bt cotton and disease-resistant papaya have provided efficient protection against cotton bollworms and Papaya ringspot virus (PRSV), respectively. As a consequence, chemical application to these crops has been significantly reduced, enhancing farm income while reducing human and non-target organism exposure to toxic chemicals. This article provides useful information for the colleagues, in particular for them whose mother tongue is not Chinese, to clearly understand the biosafety regulation and commercial use of genetically modified crops in China.     

Weeds in fields with contrasting conventional and genetically modified herbicide-tolerant crops. I. Effects on abundance and diversity

We compared the seedbanks, seed rains, plant densities and biomasses of weeds under two contrasting systems of management in beet, maize and spring oilseed rape. Weed seedbank and plant density were measured at the same locations in two subsequent seasons. About 60 fields were sown with each crop. Each field was split, one half being sown with a conventional variety managed according to the farmer's normal practice, the other half being sown with a genetically modified herbicide-tolerant (GMHT) variety, with weeds controlled by a broad-spectrum herbicide. In beet and rape, plant densities shortly after sowing were higher in the GMHT treatment. Following weed control in conventional beet, plant densities were approximately one-fifth of those in GMHT beet. In both beet and rape, this effect was reversed after the first application of broad-spectrum herbicide, so that late-season plant densities were lower in the GMHT treatments. Biomass and seed rain in GMHT crops were between one-third and one-sixth of those in conventional treatments. The effects of differing weed-seed returns in these two crops persisted in the seedbank: densities following the GMHT treatment were about 20% lower than those following the conventional treatment. The effect of growing maize was quite different. Weed density was higher throughout the season in the GMHT treatment. Late-season biomass was 82% higher and seed rain was 87% higher than in the conventional treatment. The difference was not subsequently detectable in the seedbank because the total seed return was low after both treatments. In all three crops, weed diversity was little affected by the treatment, except for transient effects immediately following herbicide application.     

Effects on weed and invertebrate abundance and diversity of herbicide management in genetically modified herbicide-tolerant winter-sown oilseed rape

We evaluated the effects of the herbicide management associated with genetically modified herbicide-tolerant (GMHT) winter oilseed rape (WOSR) on weed and invertebrate abundance and diversity by testing the null hypotheses that there is no difference between the effects of herbicide management of GMHT WOSR and that of comparable conventional varieties. For total weeds, there were few treatment differences between GMHT and conventional cropping, but large and opposite treatment effects were observed for dicots and monocots. In the GMHT treatment, there were fewer dicots and monocots than in conventional crops. At harvest, dicot biomass and seed rain in the GMHT treatment were one-third of that in the conventional, while monocot biomass was threefold greater and monocot seed rain almost fivefold greater in the GMHT treatment than in the conventional. These differential effects persisted into the following two years of the rotation. Bees and Butterflies that forage and select for dicot weeds were less abundant in GMHT WORS management in July. Year totals for Collembola were greater under GMHT management. There were few other treatment effects on invertebrates, despite the marked effects of herbicide management on the weeds.