Too hot to die? The effects of vegetation shading on past,present, and future activity budgets of two diurnal skinks from arid Australia

Behavioral thermoregulation is an important mechanism allowing ectotherms to respond to thermal variations. Its efficiency might become imperative for securing activity budgets under future climate change. For diurnal lizards, thermal microhabitat variability appears to be of high importance, especially in hot deserts where vegetation is highly scattered and sensitive to climatic fluctuations. We investigated the effects of a shading gradient from vegetation on body temperatures and activity timing for two diurnal, terrestrial desert lizards, Ctenotus regius, and Morethia boulengeri, and analyzed their changes under past, present, and future climatic conditions. Both species’ body temperatures and activity timing strongly depended on the shading gradient provided by vegetation heterogeneity. At high temperatures, shaded locations provided cooling temperatures and increased diurnal activity. Conversely, bushes also buffered cold temperature by saving heat. According to future climate change scenarios, cooler microhabitats might become beneficial to warm‐adapted species, such as C. regius, by increasing the duration of daily activity. Contrarily, warmer microhabitats might become unsuitable for less warm‐adapted species such as M. boulengeri for which midsummers might result in a complete restriction of activity irrespective of vegetation. However, total annual activity would still increase provided that individuals would be able to shift their seasonal timing towards spring and autumn. Overall, we highlight the critical importance of thermoregulatory behavior to buffer temperatures and its dependence on vegetation heterogeneity. Whereas studies often neglect ecological processes when anticipating species’ responses to future climate change the strongest impact of a changing climate on terrestrial ectotherms in hot deserts is likely to be the loss of shaded microhabitats rather than the rise in temperature itself. We argue that conservation strategies aiming at addressing future climate changes should focus more on the cascading effects of vegetation rather than on shifts of species distributions predicted solely by climatic envelopes.     

Climate change is the primary driver of white‐tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) range expansion at the northern extent of its range; land use is secondary

Quantifying the relative influence of multiple mechanisms driving recent range expansion of non‐native species is essential for predicting future changes and for informing adaptation and management plans to protect native species. White‐tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) have been expanding their range into the North American boreal forest over the last half of the 20th century. This has already altered predator–prey dynamics in Alberta, Canada, where the distribution likely reaches the northern extent of its continuous range. Although current white‐tailed deer distribution is explained by both climate and human land use, the influence each factor had on the observed range expansion would depend on the spatial and temporal pattern of these changes. Our objective was to quantify the relative importance of land use and climate change as drivers of white‐tailed deer range expansion and to predict decadal changes in white‐tailed deer distribution in northern Alberta for the first half of the 21st century. An existing species distribution model was used to predict past decadal distributions of white‐tailed deer which were validated using independent data. The effects of climate and land use change were isolated by comparing predictions under theoretical “no‐change between decades” scenarios, for each factor, to predictions under observed climate and land use change. Climate changes led to more than 88%, by area, of the increases in probability of white‐tailed deer presence across all decades. The distribution is predicted to extend 100 km further north across the northeastern Alberta boreal forest as climate continues to change over the first half of the 21st century.     

Inclusion of local environmental conditions alters high-latitude vegetation change predictions based on bioclimatic models

Current predictions of how species will respond to climate change are typically based on coarse-grained climate surfaces utilizing bioclimate envelope modelling. However, the suitability of environmental conditions for a given species might result from a variety of factors including some unrelated to climate. To address this issue, we investigated whether the inclusion of topographical and soil information in bioclimatic envelope models would significantly alter predictions of climate change—induced fine-scale tree and shrub species range size changes at the tree-limit in subarctic Europe. Using generalized additive models and data on current climate and species distributions and three different climate scenarios for the period 2040–2069, we developed predictions of the currently suitable area and potential range size changes of seven tree and shrub species in an area of 1,100 km² at a resolution of 1-ha. The inclusion of topography and soil information increased the predictive accuracy of climate-only models for all studied species. The predicted changes in species distribution volumes were contradictory, and the predicted occurrences varied greatly depending on the model used. Our results therefore support the arguments that vegetation responses to climate change can be influenced by local environmental conditions and that attention should be paid to the combined effects of these factors. We conclude that disregarding local topography and soil conditions in bioclimatic models may result in biased projections of range expansions and the associated colonization, extinction and turnover assessments.     

Life at the edge: Roe deer occurrence at the opposite ends of their geographical distribution,Norway and Portugal

In the face of climate change and habitat fragmentation there is an increasingly urgent need to learn more about factors that influence species distribution patterns and levels of environmental tolerance. Particular insights can be obtained by looking at the edges of a species range, especially from species with wide distributions. The European roe deer was chosen as a model species due to its widespread distribution. By using pellet group counts, we studied summer and winter habitat use of this herbivore at two of the extreme edges of its distribution – southwest of Portugal, and northeast of Norway – in relation to a range of fine-scale environmental factors including forest structure, vegetation characteristics and human disturbance. Our first prediction that roe deer would respond differently to human activity in both counties was supported. While in Norway roe deer are always close to houses, in Portugal they are either far (in summer) or indifferent (winter). However, everywhere and in every season, roe deer are far from roads. Our second prediction that roe deer better tolerate anthropogenic disturbances in the area where the importance of limiting factors is higher (Norway) was validated. However, our third prediction that anthropogenic disturbance would be less tolerated by roe deer outside the limiting seasons in each country was not supported. Our results suggest that roe deer perceive human activities differently in the two countries and that roe deer better tolerate anthropogenic disturbances in Norway.     

A role-type model (rope) and its application in assessing climate change impacts on forest landscapes

Gap-phase replacement is a general phenomenon found in forest ecosystems, worldwide. Different tree species can be expected to produce different sizes of gaps when they die. Species also vary in their regeneration success in gaps of different sizes. In this paper, the gap-phase interactions among tree species in a forest stand are simulated by a role-type stand model called ROPE. By incorporation of environmental effects on tree height, ROPE can simulate forest composition and stand leaf area under different climate conditions. The model was developed for forest ecosystems in northeastern China and was used to simulate the forest landscape structures under current climate conditions and under four climate change scenarios for greenhouse gas related warming. These scenarios were obtained from general circulation models developed by different atmospheric research centers. Korean pinebroadleaf mixed forest and larch forest are the major stand types in the study area under present conditions. Under the four climate change scenarios, Korean pine-broadleaf mixed forest would be expected to occur only on the higher parts of large mountains. Larch forest only would be found north of the study area. Broadleaf forest would become the dominant vegetation over the study area. Use of the Kappa statistic to test for similarity in spatial maps, indicates that each climate change scenario would result in a significant change of forest distributions.Supported by The United States National Science Foundation Grant BSR-8702333 to University of Virginia.     

Predation has a greater impact in less productive environments: variation in roe deer, Capreolus capreolus, population density across Europe

Aim We aimed to describe the large‐scale patterns in population density of roe deer Caprelous capreolus in Europe and to determine the factors shaping variation in their abundance. Location Europe. Methods We collated data on roe deer population density from 72 localities spanning 25° latitude and 48° longitude and analysed them in relation to a range of environmental factors: vegetation productivity (approximated by the fraction of photosynthetically active radiation) and forest cover as proxies for food supply, winter severity, summer drought and presence or absence of large predators (wolf, Canis lupus, and Eurasian lynx, Lynx lynx), hunter harvest and a competitor (red deer, Cervus elaphus). Results Roe deer abundance increased with the overall productivity of vegetation cover and with lower forest cover (sparser forest cover means that a higher proportion of overall plant productivity is allocated to ground vegetation and thus is available to roe deer). The effect of large predators was relatively weak in highly productive environments and in regions with mild climate, but increased markedly in regions with low vegetation productivity and harsh winters. Other potentially limiting factors (hunting, summer drought and competition with red deer) had no significant impact on roe deer abundance. Main conclusions The analyses revealed the combined effect of bottom‐up and top‐down control on roe deer: on a biogeographical scale, population abundance of roe deer has been shaped by food‐related factors and large predators, with additive effects of the two species of predators. The results have implications for management of roe deer populations in Europe. First, an increase in roe deer abundance can be expected as environmental productivity increases due to climate change. Secondly, recovery plans for large carnivores should take environmental productivity and winter severity into account when predicting their impact on prey.     

Deer do not affect short‐term rates of vegetation recovery in overwash fans on Fire Island after Hurricane Sandy

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Pathogen-Host Associations and Predicted Range Shifts of Human Monkeypox in Response to Climate Change in Central Africa

Climate change is predicted to result in changes in the geographic ranges and local prevalence of infectious diseases, either through direct effects on the pathogen, or indirectly through range shifts in vector and reservoir species. To better understand the occurrence of monkeypox virus (MPXV), an emerging Orthopoxvirus in humans, under contemporary and future climate conditions, we used ecological niche modeling techniques in conjunction with climate and remote-sensing variables. We first created spatially explicit probability distributions of its candidate reservoir species in Africa''s Congo Basin. Reservoir species distributions were subsequently used to model current and projected future distributions of human monkeypox (MPX). Results indicate that forest clearing and climate are significant driving factors of the transmission of MPX from wildlife to humans under current climate conditions. Models under contemporary climate conditions performed well, as indicated by high values for the area under the receiver operator curve (AUC), and tests on spatially randomly and non-randomly omitted test data. Future projections were made on IPCC 4^th Assessment climate change scenarios for 2050 and 2080, ranging from more conservative to more aggressive, and representing the potential variation within which range shifts can be expected to occur. Future projections showed range shifts into regions where MPX has not been recorded previously. Increased suitability for MPX was predicted in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. Models developed here are useful for identifying areas where environmental conditions may become more suitable for human MPX; targeting candidate reservoir species for future screening efforts; and prioritizing regions for future MPX surveillance efforts.     

Environmental responses of Pinus ponderosa and associated species in the south-western USA

Abstract Aim We addressed four objectives: (1) Determine the regional responses of species, size classes and a vegetation type to climate and parent material predictors, including their distributions in environmental space and the relative contributions of the predictors to explained variation. (2) Determine whether size classes of a species respond similarly to climate and parent material. (3) Assess the extent to which the predicted regional distribution of a vegetation type can be approximated by the distribution of its diagnostic species and vice versa. The establishment of a consistent relationship between the distribution of a vegetation type and its diagnostic species would facilitate change detection, management and conservation planning by allowing the use of one distribution to generate the other when data availability is limited. (4) Examine landscape‐scale environmental variability in predicted species and vegetation type distributions. Location South‐western USA (Arizona, New Mexico and southern Colorado). Methods Ecological response surface models were developed using a data base of 1409 vegetation plots to analyse biotic–environmental relationships of (1) Pinus ponderosa P. & C. Lawson and Abies concolor (Gord. & Glend.) Lindl. Ex Hildebr. size classes, (2) P. ponderosa, A. concolor and Quercus gambelii Nutt. combined size classes, and (3) a P. ponderosa forest type widely distributed in the south‐western USA. Results and main conclusions Pinus ponderosa and A. concolor models generally were judged to be successful. Quercus gambelii models were judged unsuccessful, which may result from the influence of variables not modelled, such as soil moisture, disturbance, biotic factors and other site limiting factors. Size classes differed in the range of environmental conditions associated with high occurrence probabilities within and between species, reflecting differences in the effects of climate variability and anthropogenic changes, such as fire suppression, on the distribution of each size class. Pinus ponderosa alliance was predicted to be distributed over a narrower range of environmental conditions than P. ponderosa species models, therefore limiting the use of this vegetation type as a surrogate for the distribution of the dominant species, and vice versa. Maps of combinations of environmental variables that produced a high probability of P. ponderosa occurrence showed that some landscapes predicted to contain the species exhibited diverse environmental conditions over short distances. The use of regional environmental relationships to characterize areas with high local environmental variability may facilitate identification of areas of potential rapid biotic change.     

Exclusion of deer affects responses of birds to woodland regeneration in winter and summer

Using an exclosure experiment in managed woodland in eastern England, we examined species and guild responses to vegetation growth and its modification by deer herbivory, contrasting winter and the breeding season over 4 years. Species and guild responses, in terms of seasonal presence recorded by multiple point counts, were examined using generalized linear mixed models. Several guilds or migrant species responded positively to deer exclusion and none responded negatively. The shrub‐layer foraging guild was recorded less frequently in older and browsed vegetation, in both winter and spring. Exclusion of deer also increased the occurrence of ground‐foraging species in both seasons, although these species showed no strong response to vegetation age. The canopy‐foraging guild was unaffected by deer exclusion or vegetation age in either season. There was seasonal variation in the responses of some individual resident species, including a significantly lower occurrence of Eurasian Wren Troglodytes troglodytes and European Robin Erithacus rubecula in browsed vegetation in winter, but no effect of browsing on those species in spring. Ordinations of bird assemblage compositions also revealed seasonal differences in response to gradients of vegetation structure generated by canopy‐closure and exclusion of deer. Positive impacts of deer exclusion in winter are probably linked to reduced thermal cover and predator protection afforded by browsed vegetation, whereas species that responded positively in spring were also dependent on a dense understorey for nesting. The effects on birds of vegetation development and its modification by herbivores extend beyond breeding assemblages, with different mechanisms implicated and different species affected in winter.     

Climate Change May Alter Breeding Ground Distributions of Eastern Migratory Monarchs (Danaus plexippus) via Range Expansion of Asclepias Host Plants

Climate change can profoundly alter species’ distributions due to changes in temperature, precipitation, or seasonality. Migratory monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) may be particularly susceptible to climate-driven changes in host plant abundance or reduced overwintering habitat. For example, climate change may significantly reduce the availability of overwintering habitat by restricting the amount of area with suitable microclimate conditions. However, potential effects of climate change on monarch northward migrations remain largely unknown, particularly with respect to their milkweed (Asclepias spp.) host plants. Given that monarchs largely depend on the genus Asclepias as larval host plants, the effects of climate change on monarch northward migrations will most likely be mediated by climate change effects on Asclepias. Here, I used MaxEnt species distribution modeling to assess potential changes in Asclepias and monarch distributions under moderate and severe climate change scenarios. First, Asclepias distributions were projected to extend northward throughout much of Canada despite considerable variability in the environmental drivers of each individual species. Second, Asclepias distributions were an important predictor of current monarch distributions, indicating that monarchs may be constrained as much by the availability of Asclepias host plants as environmental variables per se. Accordingly, modeling future distributions of monarchs, and indeed any tightly coupled plant-insect system, should incorporate the effects of climate change on host plant distributions. Finally, MaxEnt predictions of Asclepias and monarch distributions were remarkably consistent among general circulation models. Nearly all models predicted that the current monarch summer breeding range will become slightly less suitable for Asclepias and monarchs in the future. Asclepias, and consequently monarchs, should therefore undergo expanded northern range limits in summer months while encountering reduced habitat suitability throughout the northern migration.     

Effects of supplemental feeding and density of white-tailed deer on rodents

Spatial distribution, population density, and reproductive success of many wildlife species may be altered by changes in vegetation composition, habitat structure, and availability of food. Altered distributions of key herbivores such as white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) may impact all of these factors. Our objective was to determine the direct and indirect effects of supplemental feeding of deer on rodent populations in south Texas. We modeled effects of supplemental feeding and habitat change due to deer browsing through surveys of rodents. Rodents have a short generation time and populations respond quickly to change, so they are a suitable indicator of changes in habitat structure brought about by deer browsing pressure. We sampled rodent populations near to and far from deer feeders within twelve 81-ha enclosures containing three different densities of deer with and without supplemental feed. The three deer densities were low (8.1 ha/deer), medium (3.2 ha/deer), and high (2 ha/deer). We conducted rodent trapping during March and April of 2007 and 2008. Abundance of rodents was much higher (P < 0.001) in 2008 than in the previous year due to an increase in rainfall. However, we found little effect of deer density, supplemental feeding of deer, or distance from deer feeders on rodent populations. Thus we conclude that supplemental feeding of deer and deer density had little influence on rodent communities in this environment. Rodent species native to semi-arid environments are probably adapted to large changes in vegetative productivity brought about by the highly variable annual rainfall patterns, therefore they can adapt to the less abrupt habitat changes resulting from changing densities of deer. Conservation concerns that providing supplemental feed to deer in semi-arid rangeland will disrupt the ecology of the land through changes in rodent populations were not supported. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

Climate change and fire effects on a prairie–woodland ecotone: projecting species range shifts with a dynamic global vegetation model

Large shifts in species ranges have been predicted under future climate scenarios based primarily on niche‐based species distribution models. However, the mechanisms that would cause such shifts are uncertain. Natural and anthropogenic fires have shaped the distributions of many plant species, but their effects have seldom been included in future projections of species ranges. Here, we examine how the combination of climate and fire influence historical and future distributions of the ponderosa pine–prairie ecotone at the edge of the Black Hills in South Dakota, USA, as simulated by MC1, a dynamic global vegetation model that includes the effects of fire, climate, and atmospheric CO₂ concentration on vegetation dynamics. For this purpose, we parameterized MC1 for ponderosa pine in the Black Hills, designating the revised model as MC1‐WCNP. Results show that fire frequency, as affected by humidity and temperature, is central to the simulation of historical prairies in the warmer lowlands versus woodlands in the cooler, moister highlands. Based on three downscaled general circulation model climate projections for the 21st century, we simulate greater frequencies of natural fire throughout the area due to substantial warming and, for two of the climate projections, lower relative humidity. However, established ponderosa pine forests are relatively fire resistant, and areas that were initially wooded remained so over the 21st century for most of our future climate x fire management scenarios. This result contrasts with projections for ponderosa pine based on climatic niches, which suggest that its suitable habitat in the Black Hills will be greatly diminished by the middle of the 21st century. We hypothesize that the differences between the future predictions from these two approaches are due in part to the inclusion of fire effects in MC1, and we highlight the importance of accounting for fire as managed by humans in assessing both historical species distributions and future climate change effects.     

Prediction of the distribution of Arctic-nesting pink-footed geese under a warmer climate scenario

Global climate change is expected to shift species ranges polewards, with a risk of range contractions and population declines of especially high-Arctic species. We built species distribution models for Svalbard-nesting pink-footed geese to relate their occurrence to environmental and climatic variables, and used the models to predict their distribution under a warmer climate scenario. The most parsimonious model included mean May temperature, the number of frost-free months and the proportion of moist and wet moss-dominated vegetation in the area. The two climate variables are indicators for whether geese can physiologically fulfil the breeding cycle or not and the moss vegetation is an indicator of suitable feeding conditions. Projections of the distribution to warmer climate scenarios propose a large north- and eastward expansion of the potential breeding range on Svalbard even at modest temperature increases (1 and 2 °C increase in summer temperature, respectively). Contrary to recent suggestions regarding future distributions of Arctic wildlife, we predict that warming may lead to a further growth in population size of, at least some, Arctic breeding geese.     

植被、海拔、人为干扰对大中型野生动物分布的影响——以九寨沟自然保护区为例

利用九寨沟自然保护区内8条动物监测样线在2003—2010年的生态监测数据,分析了植被、海拔、人为干扰对大中型野生动物分布的影响,结果显示:1)本监测共记录到保护区内大中型野生动物26种,其中兽类18种,鸟类8种,属于我国Ⅰ级、Ⅱ级保护动物的分别有5种和11种。2)针阔混交林和针叶林是大中型野生动物种类最丰富的两种植被类型(分别有26种和17种),阔叶林和灌丛次之(分别为10种和12种),草地最少(2种)。3)海拔2400 m以下的地方,大中型野生动物种类稀少,为10种,2400—2599 m海拔段物种数增加至20种,之后随海拔上升物种丰富度下降。4)人为干扰显著影响大中型野生动物的空间分布:历史上的人类活动将原生森林植被转化为次生的落叶阔叶林、灌丛和草地,使树正、亚纳和尖盘等地下坡位(相对海拔0—199 m)的大中型野生动物的物种丰富度降低(分别为4、2、2种)。包括旅游活动和交通在内的人为干扰,可能导致附近50m海拔范围内保护动物的缺失,并使下坡位的某些物种向高海拔处移动。生境破碎化则使野生动物的种类组成发生改变,使原有森林内部优势种,如羚牛(Budorcas taxicolor),逐渐被适应能力强的物种,如豹猫(Prionailurus bengalensis)、雉鸡(Phasianuscolchicus)和野猪(Sus scrofa)等所取代,并将长期影响野生动物种群的存活。当前九寨沟自然保护区大中型野生动物的分布是植被、海拔与人为干扰综合作用的结果。     

Expanding and invading plant species in sagebrush steppe affect multiple aspects of small-mammal ecology

Invasion and expansion of non-native and native plants have altered vegetation structure in many terrestrial ecosystems. Small mammals influence multiple ecosystem processes through their roles as ecosystem engineers, predators, and prey, and changes to vegetation structure can affect habitat use, community composition, and predator-prey interactions for this assemblage of wildlife. In the sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) shrublands of the western United States, invasion by non-native grasses and expansion of native conifer trees beyond their historical range has altered vegetation structure. These changes may potentially affect distributions and interactions of deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus), which are generalist omnivores, and Columbia Plateau pocket mice (Perognathus parvus), more specialized granivores. To assess the extent to which altered habitat affects small-mammal density, survival, and home-range size, we examined these aspects of small-mammal ecology along a gradient of cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) invasion and western juniper (Juniperus occidentalis) establishment in sagebrush shrublands in southwestern Idaho, USA. From 2017–2019, we used a spatially explicit mark-recapture design to examine attributes of small-mammal ecology along an invasion gradient. We did not find support for an effect of cheatgrass cover on density or survival of either species. Home-range size of deer mice was 2.3 times smaller in heavier cheatgrass cover (60%) compared to areas with little or no cheatgrass cover. Density of deer mice was highest (5 individuals/ha) in areas with 10% juniper cover and decreased with increasing juniper cover, whereas density of pocket mice was positively influenced by shrub cover. Survival of deer mice declined as juniper stem density increased. Conversely, survival of pocket mice increased with increasing juniper stem density. We found evidence for interspecific interactions between these 2 species, in the form of a density-dependent effect of deer mice on pocket mouse home-range size. Home-range size for pocket mice was 2 times smaller in areas with the highest estimated density of deer mice compared to areas with low densities of deer mice. Our data provides unique information about how small mammals in the sagebrush steppe are affected by expanding and invasive plant species and potential ways that habitat restoration efforts, in the form of conifer removal, may influence small mammals. Understanding the response of small mammals to conifer expansion or removal may shed light on the demographic and numerical responses of other wildlife associated with the sagebrush biome, including predators.     

Sensitivity to thermal extremes in Australian Drosophila implies similar impacts of climate change on the distribution of widespread and tropical species

Climatic factors influence the distribution of ectotherms, raising the possibility that distributions of many species will shift rapidly under climate change and/or that species will become locally extinct. Recent studies have compared performance curves of species from different climate zones and suggested that tropical species may be more susceptible to climate change than those from temperate environments. However, in other comparisons involving responses to thermal extremes it has been suggested that mid‐latitude populations are more susceptible. Using a group of 10 closely related Drosophila species with known tropical or widespread distribution, we undertake a detailed investigation of their growth performance curves and their tolerance to thermal extremes. Thermal sensitivity of life history traits (fecundity, developmental success, and developmental time) and adult heat resistance were similar in tropical and widespread species groups, while widespread species had higher adult cold tolerance under all acclimation regimes. Laboratory measurements of either population growth capacity or acute tolerance to heat and cold extremes were compared to daily air temperature under current (2002–2007) and future (2100) conditions to investigate if these traits could explain current distributions and, therefore, also forecast future effects of climate change. Life history traits examining the thermal sensitivity of population growth proved to be a poor predictor of current species distributions. In contrast, we validate that adult tolerance to thermal extremes provides a good correlate of current distributions. Thus, in their current distribution range, most of the examined species experience heat exposure close to, but rarely above, the functional heat resistance limit. Similarly, adult functional cold resistance proved a good predictor of species distribution in cooler climates. When using the species’ functional tolerance limits under a global warming scenario, we find that both tropical and widespread Drosophila species will face a similar proportional reduction in distribution range under future warming.     

Survey of haircoat fungal flora for the presence of dermatophytes in a population of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Virginia

Before releasing rehabilitated wildlife, patients should be cured of all infectious agents that pose a risk to free-roaming wildlife or humans after release. Dermatophyte fungi, commonly known as "ringworm," have zoonotic potential and may be carried as normal flora on the haircoats of certain species. Outbreaks of ringworm are anecdotally reported to occur in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) fawns, but no prevalence surveys have been conducted on the haircoat flora of free-roaming individuals. In November 2008, we tested 60 legally hunted white-tailed deer for dermatophyte flora by using a modified MacKenzie technique. Results indicate it is unlikely that wild, mature white-tailed deer in Virginia, USA, carry dermato-phyte fungi as normal haircoat flora. Therefore, wildlife rehabilitators and hunters are at low risk for dermatophyte infection by direct contact with this species. In addition, the RapidVet-D 3 Day Test for Veterinary Dermatophytosis was determined to have poor specificity for presence of dermatophyte fungi on asymptomatic white-tailed deer in Virginia.     

Current and Future Fire Regimes and Their Influence on Natural Vegetation in Ethiopia

Fire is a major factor shaping the distribution of vegetation types. In this study, we used a recent high resolution map of potential natural vegetation (PNV) types and MODIS fire products to model and investigate the importance of fire as driver of vegetation distribution patterns in Ethiopia. We employed statistical modeling techniques to estimate the distribution of fire and the PNVs under current climatic conditions, and used the calibrated models to project distributions for different climate change scenarios. Results show a clear congruence between distribution patterns of fire and major vegetation types. The effect of climate change varies considerably between climate change models and scenarios, but as general trend expansions of moist Afromontane forest and Combretum–Terminalia woodlands were predicted. Fire-prone areas were also predicted to increase, and including this factor in vegetation distribution models resulted in stronger expansion of Combretum–Terminalia woodlands and a more limited increase of moist Afromontane forests. These results underline the importance of fire as a regulating factor of vegetation distribution patterns, and how fire needs to be factored into predict the possible effects of climate change. For conservation strategies to effectively address conservation challenges caused by rapid climate shifts, it is imperative that they not only consider the direct influence of climate changes on the vegetation, species species, or biodiversity patterns, but also the influence of future fire regimes.     

Temperate Mountain Forest Biodiversity under Climate Change: Compensating Negative Effects by Increasing Structural Complexity

Species adapted to cold-climatic mountain environments are expected to face a high risk of range contractions, if not local extinctions under climate change. Yet, the populations of many endothermic species may not be primarily affected by physiological constraints, but indirectly by climate-induced changes of habitat characteristics. In mountain forests, where vertebrate species largely depend on vegetation composition and structure, deteriorating habitat suitability may thus be mitigated or even compensated by habitat management aiming at compositional and structural enhancement. We tested this possibility using four cold-adapted bird species with complementary habitat requirements as model organisms. Based on species data and environmental information collected in 300 1-km² grid cells distributed across four mountain ranges in central Europe, we investigated (1) how species’ occurrence is explained by climate, landscape, and vegetation, (2) to what extent climate change and climate-induced vegetation changes will affect habitat suitability, and (3) whether these changes could be compensated by adaptive habitat management. Species presence was modelled as a function of climate, landscape and vegetation variables under current climate; moreover, vegetation-climate relationships were assessed. The models were extrapolated to the climatic conditions of 2050, assuming the moderate IPCC-scenario A1B, and changes in species’ occurrence probability were quantified. Finally, we assessed the maximum increase in occurrence probability that could be achieved by modifying one or multiple vegetation variables under altered climate conditions. Climate variables contributed significantly to explaining species occurrence, and expected climatic changes, as well as climate-induced vegetation trends, decreased the occurrence probability of all four species, particularly at the low-altitudinal margins of their distribution. These effects could be partly compensated by modifying single vegetation factors, but full compensation would only be achieved if several factors were changed in concert. The results illustrate the possibilities and limitations of adaptive species conservation management under climate change.