Recruitment to a seabird population depends on environmental factors and on population size

1. A novel capture-mark-recapture (CMR) method was used to build a multistate model of recruitment by young birds to a breeding population of common guillemots Uria aalge on the Isle of May, Scotland. Recruitment of a total of 2757 individually marked guillemots over 17 years was modelled as a process where individuals had to move from an unobservable state at sea, through a nonbreeding state present in the colony, to the breeding state. The probabilities of individuals returning to the colony in a given year, at age 2 and 3-4 years, were positively correlated with an environmental covariate, the winter North Atlantic Oscillation index (WNAO) in the previous years. 2. For 2 year olds, there was a negative relationship with breeding population size, suggesting that density dependence operated in this colony through limitation of food or some other resource. 3. Survival over the first 2 years of life varied with cohort, but was unrelated to the WNAO. Mean survival over this 2-year period was high at 0.576 (95% CI: 0.444; 0.708). 4. This high survival, combined with a low 'local' survival after age 5 years of 0.695 (0-654; 0.733) and observations of Isle of May chicks at other colonies, suggests that most surviving chicks return to the natal colony before deciding whether to recruit there or move elsewhere.     

The demographic impact of extreme events: stochastic weather drives survival and population dynamics in a long-lived seabird

1. Most scenarios for future climate change predict increased variability and thus increased frequency of extreme weather events. To predict impacts of climate change on wild populations, we need to understand whether this translates into increased variability in demographic parameters, which would lead to reduced population growth rates even without a change in mean parameter values. This requires robust estimates of temporal process variance, for example in survival, and identification of weather covariates linked to interannual variability. 2. The European shag Phalacrocorax aristotelis (L.) shows unusually large variability in population size, and large-scale mortality events have been linked to winter gales. We estimated first-year, second-year and adult survival based on 43 years of ringing and dead recovery data from the Isle of May, Scotland, using recent methods to quantify temporal process variance and identify aspects of winter weather linked to survival. 3. Survival was highly variable for all age groups, and for second-year and adult birds process variance declined strongly when the most extreme year was excluded. Survival in these age groups was low in winters with strong onshore winds and high rainfall. Variation in first-year survival was not related to winter weather, and process variance, although high, was less affected by extreme years. A stochastic population model showed that increasing process variance in survival would lead to reduced population growth rate and increasing probability of extinction. 4. As in other cormorants, shag plumage is only partially waterproof, presumably an adaptation to highly efficient underwater foraging. We speculate that this adaptation may make individuals vulnerable to rough winter weather, leading to boom-and-bust dynamics, where rapid population growth under favourable conditions allows recovery from periodic large-scale weather-related mortality. 5. Given that extreme weather events are predicted to become more frequent, species such as shags that are vulnerable to such events are likely to exhibit stronger reductions in population growth than would be expected from changes in mean climate. Vulnerability to extreme events thus needs to be accounted for when predicting the ecological impacts of climate change.     

Age-specific effect of heterozygosity on survival in alpine marmots, Marmota marmota

The fitness consequences of heterozygosity and the mechanisms underpinning them are still highly controversial. Using capture–mark–recapture models, we investigated the effects of individual heterozygosity, measured at 16 microsatellite markers, on age-dependent survival and access to dominance in a socially monogamous mammalian species, the alpine marmot. We found a positive correlation between standardized multilocus heterozygosity and juvenile survival. However, there was no correlation between standardized multilocus heterozygosity and either survival of older individuals or access to dominance. The disappearance of a significant heterozygosity fitness correlation when individuals older than juveniles are considered is consistent with the prediction that differences in survival among individuals are maximal early in life. The lack of a correlation between heterozygosity and access to dominance may be a consequence of few homozygous individuals attaining the age at which they might reach dominance. Two hypotheses have been proposed to explain heterozygosity-fitness correlations: genome-wide effects reflected by all markers or local effects of specific markers linked to genes that determine fitness. In accordance with genome-wide effects of heterozygosity, we found significant correlations between heterozygosities calculated across single locus or across two sets of eight loci. Thus, the genome-wide heterozygosity effect seems to explain the observed heterozygosity-fitness correlation in the alpine marmot.     

Cowpox virus infection in natural field vole Microtus agrestis populations: significant negative impacts on survival

1. Cowpox virus is an endemic virus circulating in populations of wild rodents. It has been implicated as a potential cause of population cycles in field voles Microtus agrestis L., in Britain, owing to a delayed density-dependent pattern in prevalence, but its impact on field vole demographic parameters is unknown. This study tests the hypothesis that wild field voles infected with cowpox virus have a lower probability of survival than uninfected individuals. 2. The effect of cowpox virus infection on the probability of an individual surviving to the next month was investigated using longitudinal data collected over 2 years from four grassland sites in Kielder Forest, UK. This effect was also investigated at the population level, by examining whether infection prevalence explained temporal variation in survival rates, once other factors influencing survival had been controlled for. 3. Individuals with a probability of infection, P(I), of 1 at a time when base survival rate was at median levels had a 22.4% lower estimated probability of survival than uninfected individuals, whereas those with a P(I) of 0.5 had a 10.4% lower survival. 4. At the population level, survival rates also decreased with increasing cowpox prevalence, with lower survival rates in months of higher cowpox prevalence. 5. Simple matrix projection models with 28 day time steps and two stages, with 71% of voles experiencing cowpox infection in their second month of life (the average observed seroprevalence at the end of the breeding season) predict a reduction in 28-day population growth rate during the breeding season from lambda = 1.62 to 1.53 for populations with no cowpox infection compared with infected populations. 6. This negative correlation between cowpox virus infection and field vole survival, with its potentially significant effect on population growth rate, is the first for an endemic pathogen in a cyclic population of wild rodents.     

Nine decades of decreasing phenotypic variability in Atlantic cod

Changes in phenotypic variability in natural populations have received little attention in comparison with changes in mean trait values. This is unfortunate because trait diversity may influence adaptive evolutionary change and population stability. We combine two unique data sets to illuminate complex trait changes in Atlantic cod along the Norwegian Skagerrak coast: (i) an annual beach seine survey starting in 1919, monitoring juvenile body size and abundance and (ii) capture–mark–recapture data from which we estimated selection on juvenile body size and growth. We demonstrate that the variability of juvenile size has been steadily decreasing across nine decades, with no evidence for a similar trend in mean size. We also report that small, slow-growing fish as well as large, fast-growing fish are selected against. Together, these results suggest long-term stabilizing selection acting on Atlantic cod, and emphasize the need for further studies evaluating the full complexity of trait changes in wild populations.     

Demographic response of snake-necked turtles correlates with indigenous harvest and feral pig predation in tropical northern Australia

Species that mature late, experience high levels of survival and have long generation times are more vulnerable to chronic increases in mortality than species with higher fecundity and more rapid turnover of generations. Many chelonians have low hatchling survival, slow growth, delayed sexual maturity and high subadult and adult survival. This constrains their ability to respond quickly to increases in adult mortality from harvesting or habitat alteration. In contrast, the northern snake-necked turtle Chelodina rugosa (Ogilby 1890) is fast-growing, early maturing and highly fecund relative to other turtles, and may be resilient to increased mortality. Here we provide correlative evidence spanning six study sites and three field seasons, indicating that C. rugosa is able to compensate demographically to conditions of relatively low subadult and adult survival, caused by pig Sus scrofa (Linnaeus 1758) predation and customary harvesting by humans. Recruitment and age specific fecundity tended to be greater in sites with low adult and subadult survival (and thus reduced densities of large turtles), owing to higher juvenile survival, a smaller size at onset of maturity and faster post-maturity growth. These patterns are consistent with compensatory density-dependent responses, and as such challenge the generality that high subadult and adult survival is crucial for achieving long-term population stability in long-lived vertebrates such as chelonians. We posit that long-lived species with 'fast' recruitment and a capacity for a compensatory demographic response, similar to C. rugosa, may be able to persist in the face of occasional or sustained adult harvest without inevitably threatening population viability.     

Demography of cape petrels in response to environmental changes

Predicting the responses of populations in changing environments is an important task for ecologists. Understanding the population dynamics of high-latitude breeding species is critical given the particularly rapid environmental changes that occur in these regions. Using long-term mark–resighting data acquired over 53-years in Pointe Géologie, Terre Adélie, Antarctica, we estimated age-specific demographic parameters and evaluated the effect of the environment on survival of a poorly known species, the cape petrel Daption capense. We then modeled the dynamics of this population using a life-history model and performed prospective and retrospective analyses to estimate the sensitivity of the population growth rate to demographic parameters, and to quantify their relative contribution. Survival of cape petrel increased with age, being 0.610 (±0.193) for juveniles, 0.739 (±0.158) for individuals from 2 to 4, and 0.920 (±0.031) for older individuals. Minimum age at first reproduction was 3 years old, the age at which all birds were recruited was 14 years, and mean age at first reproduction was 9.05 (±2.06) years. Adult survival increased over time and was positively correlated with the southern annular mode (SAM). The stochastic population growth rate was estimated at 1.019, and adult survival over age 5 made the largest contribution to variance of the population growth rate. Sensitivity analyses revealed that population regulation was mainly driven by the SAM. Our results suggest that despite the decrease in breeding success, the population of cape petrels at Pointe Géologie increased due to the increase in immature and adult survival.     

Effective population sizes and migration rates in fragmented populations of an endangered insect (Coenagrion mercuriale: Odonata)

1. Effective population sizes (N(e)) and migration rates (m) are critical evolutionary parameters that impact on population survival and determine the relative influence of selection and genetic drift. While the parameter m is well-studied in animal populations, N(e) remains challenging to measure and consequently is only rarely estimated, particularly in insect taxa. 2. We used demographic and genetic methods to estimate N(e) and m in a fragmented population of the endangered damselfly Coenagrion mercuriale to better understand the contrast between genetic and field estimates of these parameters and also to identify the spatial scale over which populations may become locally adapted. 3. We found a contrast between demographic- and genetic-based estimates of these parameters, with the former apparently providing overestimates of N(e), owing to substantial underestimation of the variance in reproductive success, and the latter overestimating m, because spatial genetic structure is weak. 4. The overall N(e) of sites within the population network at Beaulieu Heath, the largest C. mercuriale site in the UK, was estimated to vary between approximately 60 and 2700. 5. While N(e) was not correlated with either the total numbers of adults (N) or the area of habitat, this parameter was always less than N, because of substantial variance in reproductive success. The ratio N(e)/N varied between 0.006 and 0.42 and was generally larger in smaller populations, possibly representing some 'genetic compensation'. 6. From a simple genetic model and these data on N(e) and m, it seems that populations of C. mercuriale have the potential to respond to localized spatial variation in selection and this would need to be considered for future genetic management of this endangered species.     

Global climate patterns explain range-wide synchronicity in survival of a migratory seabird

To predict the impact of climate change over the whole species distribution range, comparison of adult survival variations over large spatial scale is of primary concern for long-lived species populations that are particularly susceptible to decline if adult survival is reduced. In this study, we estimated and compared adult survival rates between 1989 and 1997 of six populations of Cory's shearwater ( Calonectris diomedea ) spread across 4600 km using capture–recapture models. We showed that mean annual adult survival rates are different among populations along a longitudinal gradient and between sexes. Variation in adult survival is synchronized among populations, with three distinct groups: (1) both females and males of Corsica, Tremiti, and Selvagem (annual survival range 0.88–0.96); (2) both females and males of Frioul and females from Crete (0.82–0.92); and (3) both females and males of Malta and males from Crete (0.74–0.88). The total variation accounted for by the common pattern of variation is on average 71%, suggesting strong environmental forcing. At least 61% of the variation in survival is explained by the Southern Oscillation Index fluctuations. We suggested that Atlantic hurricanes and storms during La Niña years may increase adult mortality for Cory's shearwater during winter months. For long-lived seabird species, variation in adult survival is buffered against environmental variability, although extreme climate conditions such as storms significantly affect adult survival. The effect of climate at large spatial scales on adult survival during the nonbreeding period may lead to synchronization of variation in adult survival over the species' range and has large effects on the meta-population trends. One can thus worry about the future of such long-lived seabirds species under the predictions of higher frequency of extreme large-scale climatic events.     

Advances in laying date and increasing population size suggest positive responses to climate change in Common Eiders Somateria mollissima in Iceland

Models of climate change predict that its effects on animal populations will not always be negative, but most studies indicate negative associations between changes in climate and the phenology of animal migration and reproduction. For some populations, however, climate change may render particular environments more favourable, with positive effects on population growth. We used a 30-year population dataset on over 2000 Common Eiders Somateria mollissima at a colony in southwest Iceland to examine the response of this species to climate fluctuations. Eiders are strongly dependent on suitable climatic conditions for successful reproduction and survival. Temperatures in southwest Iceland, in both winter and summer, have generally increased over the past 30 years but have shown considerable fluctuation. We show that females laid earlier following mild winters and that year-to-year variation in the number of nests was related to the temperature during the breeding season 2 years previously. Milder summers could have positive effects on breeding success and offspring survival, producing an increase in nest numbers 2 years later when most Eiders recruit into the breeding population. In this part of their range, Eiders could benefit from a general warming of the climate.