Income Disparity and Risk of Death: The Importance of Health Behaviors and Other Mediating Factors

Background

Income disparities in mortality are profound in the United States, but reasons for this remain largely unexplained. The objective of this study was to assess the effects of health behaviors, and other mediating pathways, separately and simultaneously, including health insurance, health status, and inflammation, in the association between income and mortality.

Methods

This study used data from 9925 individuals aged 20 years or older who participated in the 1999–2004 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) and were followed up through December 31, 2006 for mortality. The outcome measures were all-cause and CVD/diabetes mortality. During follow-up 505 persons died, including 196 deaths due to CVD or diabetes.

Results

After adjusting for age, sex, education, and race/ethnicity, risk of death was higher in low-income than high-income group for both all-cause mortality (Hazard ratio [HR], 1.98; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.37, 2.85) and cardiovascular disease (CVD)/diabetes mortality (HR, 3.68; 95% CI: 1.64, 8.27). The combination of the four pathways attenuated 58% of the association between income and all-cause mortality and 35% of that of CVD/diabetes mortality. Health behaviors attenuated the risk of all-cause and CVD/diabetes mortality by 30% and 21%, respectively, in the low-income group. Health status attenuated 39% of all-cause mortality and 18% of CVD/diabetes mortality, whereas, health insurance and inflammation accounted for only a small portion of the income-associated mortality (≤6%).

Conclusion

Excess mortality associated with lower income can be largely accounted for by poor health status and unhealthy behaviors. Future studies should address behavioral modification, as well as possible strategies to improve health status in low-income people.     

Reductions in Cardiovascular,Cerebrovascular, and Respiratory Mortality following the National Irish Smoking Ban: Interrupted Time-Series Analysis

Background

Previous studies have shown decreases in cardiovascular mortality following the implementation of comprehensive smoking bans. It is not known whether cerebrovascular or respiratory mortality decreases post-ban. On March 29, 2004, the Republic of Ireland became the first country in the world to implement a national workplace smoking ban. The aim of this study was to assess the effect of this policy on all-cause and cause-specific, non-trauma mortality.

Methods

A time-series epidemiologic assessment was conducted, utilizing Poisson regression to examine weekly age and gender-standardized rates for 215,878 non-trauma deaths in the Irish population, ages ≥35 years. The study period was from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2007, with a post-ban follow-up of 3.75 years. All models were adjusted for time trend, season, influenza, and smoking prevalence.

Results

Following ban implementation, an immediate 13% decrease in all-cause mortality (RR: 0.87; 95% CI: 0.76–0.99), a 26% reduction in ischemic heart disease (IHD) (RR: 0.74; 95% CI: 0.63–0.88), a 32% reduction in stroke (RR: 0.68; 95% CI: 0.54–0.85), and a 38% reduction in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (RR: 0.62; 95% CI: 0.46–0.83) mortality was observed. Post-ban reductions in IHD, stroke, and COPD mortalities were seen in ages ≥65 years, but not in ages 35–64 years. COPD mortality reductions were found only in females (RR: 0.47; 95% CI: 0.32–0.70). Post-ban annual trend reductions were not detected for any smoking-related causes of death. Unadjusted estimates indicate that 3,726 (95% CI: 2,305–4,629) smoking-related deaths were likely prevented post-ban. Mortality decreases were primarily due to reductions in passive smoking.

Conclusions

The national Irish smoking ban was associated with immediate reductions in early mortality. Importantly, post-ban risk differences did not change with a longer follow-up period. This study corroborates previous evidence for cardiovascular causes, and is the first to demonstrate reductions in cerebrovascular and respiratory causes.     

Is Obstructive Sleep Apnea Associated with Cardiovascular and All-Cause Mortality?

Background

Studies have reported inconsistent findings regarding the association between obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) and future risks of cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. We conducted a meta-analysis to investigate whether OSA is an independent predictor for future cardiovascular and all-cause mortality using prospective observational studies.

Methods

Electronic literature databases (Medline and Embase) were searched for prospective observational studies published prior to December 2012. Only observational studies that assessed baseline OSA and future risk of cardiovascular and all-cause mortality were selected. Pooled hazard risk (HR) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated for categorical risk estimates. Subgroup analyses were based on the severity of OSA.

Results

Six studies with 11932 patients were identified and analyzed, with 239 reporting cardiovascular mortality, and 1397 all-cause mortality. Pooled HR of all-cause mortality was 1.19 (95% CI, 1.00 to 1.41) for moderate OSA and 1.90 (95% CI, 1.29 to 2.81) for severe OSA. Pooled HR of cardiovascular mortality was 1.40 (95% CI, 0.77 to 2.53) for moderate OSA and 2.65 (95% CI, 1.82 to 3.85) for severe OSA. There were no differences in cardiovascular mortality in continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) treatment compared with healthy subjects (HR 0.82; 95% CI, 0.50 to 1.33).

Conclusions

Severe OSA is a strong independent predictor for future cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. CPAP treatment was associated with decrease cardiovascular mortality.     

Uric Acid as a Risk Factor for Cardiovascular Disease and Mortality in Overweight/Obese Individuals

Background

The predictive value of serum uric acid (SUA) for adverse cardiovascular events among obese and overweight patients is not known, but potentially important because of the relation between hyperuricaemia and obesity.

Methods

The relationship between SUA and risk of cardiovascular adverse outcomes (nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, resuscitated cardiac arrest or cardiovascular death) and all-cause mortality, respectively, was evaluated in a post-hoc analysis of the Sibutramine Cardiovascular OUTcomes (SCOUT) trial. Participants enrolled in SCOUT were obese or overweight with pre-existing diabetes and/or cardiovascular disease (CVD). Cox models were used to assess the role of SUA as an independent risk factor.

Results

9742 subjects were included in the study; 83.6% had diabetes, and 75.1% had CVD. During an average follow-up time of 4.2 years, 1043 subjects had a primary outcome (myocardial infarction, resuscitated cardiac arrest, stroke, or cardiovascular death), and 816 died. In a univariate Cox model, the highest SUA quartile was associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular adverse outcomes compared with the lowest SUA quartile in women (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.59; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.20–2.10). In multivariate analyses, adjusting for known cardiovascular risk factors the increased risk for the highest SUA quartile was no longer statistically significant among women (HR: 0.99; 95% CI: 0.72–1.36) nor was it among men. Analyses of all-cause mortality found an interaction between sex and SUA. In a multivariate Cox model including women only, the highest SUA quartile was associated with an increased risk in all-cause mortality compared to the lowest SUA quartile (HR: 1.51; 95% CI: 1.08–2.12). No relationship was observed in men (HR: 1.06; 95% CI: 0.82–1.36).

Conclusion

SUA was not an independent predictor of cardiovascular disease and death in these high-risk overweight/obese people. However, our results suggested that SUA was an independent predictor of all-cause mortality in women.     

Sickness Absence Due to Specific Mental Diagnoses and All-Cause and Cause-Specific Mortality: A Cohort Study of 4.9 Million Inhabitants of Sweden

Background

Despite the magnitude and increase of sickness absence due to mental diagnoses, little is known regarding long-term health outcomes. The aim of this nationwide population-based, prospective cohort study was to investigate the association between sickness absence due to specific mental diagnoses and the risk of all-cause and cause-specific mortality.

Methods

A cohort of all 4 857 943 individuals living in Sweden on 31.12.2004 (aged 16–64 years, not sickness absent, or on retirement or disability pension), was followed from 01.01.2005 through 31.12.2008 for all-cause and cause-specific mortality (suicide, cancer, circulatory disease) through linkage of individual register data. Individuals with at least one new sick-leave spell with a mental diagnosis in 2005 were compared to individuals with no sickness absence. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated by Cox regression, adjusting for age, sex, education, country of birth, family situation, area of residence, and pre-existing morbidity (diagnosis-specific hospital inpatient (2000–2005) and outpatient (2001–2005) care).

Results

In the multivariate analyses, mental sickness absence in 2005 was associated with an increased risk for all-cause mortality: HR: 1.65, 95% CI: 1.47–1.86 in women and in men: 1.73, 1.57–1.91; for suicide, cancer (both smoking and non-smoking related) as well as mortality due to circulatory disease only in men. Estimates for cause-specific mortality ranged from 1.48 to 3.37. Associations with all-cause mortality were found for all mental sickness absence diagnostic groups studied.

Conclusions

Knowledge about the prognosis of patients sickness absent with specific mental diagnoses is of crucial clinical importance in health care. Sickness absence due to specific mental diagnoses may here be used as a risk indictor for subsequent mortality.     

30 Year patterns of mortality in Tobago, West Indies, 1976-2005: impact of glucose intolerance and alcohol intake

Objectives

To determine the main predictors of all-cause and cardiovascular (CV) mortality in a rural West Indian population in Plymouth, Tobago over 30 years.

Methods

Questionnaire survey for CV risk factors and alcohol consumption patterns administered at baseline in 1976 with 92.5% response rate. 831/832 patients were followed up until 2005 or death.

Results

Hypertension (>140/90 mm Hg) was prevalent in 48% of men and 44% of women, and 21% of men and 17% of women had diabetes. Evidence showed most predictors for all cause and cardiovascular mortality having the main effects at ages <60 years, (p-value for interaction<0.01) but no risk factors having sex-specific effects on mortality. The main predictors of all-cause mortality at age <60 years in the fully adjusted model were high sessional alcohol intake (hazard ratio (HR) 2.04, 95% CI 1.10-3.80), severe hypertension >160/95 mm Hg (HR 1.68, 95% CI 1.09-2.60), diabetes (HR 3.28, 95% CI 1.89-5.69), and BMI (HR 1.04, 95% CI 1.00-1.07). The main predictors of cardiovascular mortality were similar in the fully adjusted model: high sessional alcohol intake (HR 2.47 95% CI 1.10-5.57), severe hypertension (HR 2.78 95% CI 1.56-4.95), diabetes (HR 3.68 95% CI 1.77-7.67) and additionally LVH, (HR 5.54 95% CI 1.38-22.26), however BMI did not show independent effects. For men, high sessional alcohol intake explains 27% of all cause mortality, and 40% of cardiovascular mortality at age <60 yrs. In adults aged <60 years, the attributable risk fraction for IGT/Diabetes and all cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality is 28% in women vs. 11% in men, and 22% in women vs. 6% in men respectively.

Conclusions

In this Afro-Caribbean population we found that a major proportion of deaths are attributable to high sessional alcohol intake (in males), diabetes, and hypertension and these risk factors primarily operate in those below 60 years.     

Associations of Tobacco Use and Alcohol Drinking with Laryngeal and Hypopharyngeal Cancer Risks among Men in Karunagappally,Kerala, India -Karunagappally Cohort Study

Background

From among a cohort of 65,553 men aged 30–84 in Karunagappally Taluk, Kerala, India, 52 hypopharyngeal cancer cases and 85 laryngeal cancer cases were identified by the Karunagappally Cancer Registry during the period between 1990 and 2009.

Methods

We conduct Poisson regression analysis of grouped data, taking into account age and education.

Results

This study showed that the incidence rates of cancers of the hypopharynx and the larynx were strongly related to the number of bidis smoked a day (P<0.001 for both hypopharyngeal and laryngeal cancers) and duration of bidi smoking (P=0.009; P<0.001). Laryngeal cancer risk was significantly increased by bidi smoking (P<0.001), cigarette smoking (P=0.013) and regular alcohol use (P=0.005).

Conclusion

The present study, the first cohort study to examine the association of hypopharyngeal and laryngeal cancer incidence rates with bidi smoking in South Asia, clearly showed dose–response relationships between those cancer risks and bidi smoking; larger amounts of bidi smoked a day and longer durations of bidi smoking increased the incidence rates of those cancers. Tobacco chewing was found not related to the risk of hypopharynx or larynx cancer.     

All-Cause and Cause-Specific Mortality after Long-Term Sickness Absence for Psychiatric Disorders: A Prospective Cohort Study

Objective

The aim was to examine if long-term psychiatric sickness absence was associated with all-cause and diagnosis-specific (cardiovascular disease (CVD), cancer and suicide) mortality for the period 1990–2007. An additional aim was to examine these associations for psychiatric sickness absence in 1990 and 2000, with follow-up on mortality during 1991–1997 and 2001–2007, separately.

Methods

Employees within municipalities and county councils, 244,990 individuals in 1990 and 764,137 individuals in 2000, were followed up to 2007 through register linkages. Analyses were conducted with flexible parametric survival models comparing sickness absentees due to psychiatric diagnoses (>90 days) with those not receiving sick leave benefit.

Results

Long-term sickness absence for psychiatric disorders was associated with an increased risk of mortality due to all causes; CVD; cancer (smoking and non-smoking related); and suicide during the period 1990–2007. After full adjustment for socio-demographic covariates and previous inpatient care due to somatic and psychiatric diagnoses, these associations remained significant for all-cause mortality (Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI)): HR 1.56, 95% CI 1.3–1.8; CVD: HR 1.35, 95% CI 1.0–1.9, and suicide: HR 3.84, 95% CI 2.4–6.1. For both cohorts 1990 and 2000 estimates point in the same direction. For the time-period 2000–2007, we found increased risks of mortality in the fully adjusted model due to all causes: HR 1.47, 95% CI 1.2–1.7; CVD: HR 1.83, 95% CI 1.2–2.7; overall cancer: HR 1.33, 95% CI 1.0–1.7; and suicide: HR 2.15, 95% CI 1.3–3.7.

Conclusion

Long-term sickness absence for psychiatric disorders predicted premature mortality from all-causes, cardiovascular disease, cancer, and suicide.     

Additive Effect of Anemia and Renal Impairment on Long-Term Outcome after Percutaneous Coronary Intervention

Introduction

Anemia and renal impairment are important co-morbidities among patients with coronary artery disease undergoing Percutaneous Coronary Intervention (PCI). Disease progression to eventual death can be understood as the combined effect of baseline characteristics and intermediate outcomes.

Methods

Using data from a prospective cohort study, we investigated clinical pathways reflecting the transitions from PCI through intermediate ischemic or hemorrhagic events to all-cause mortality in a multi-state analysis as a function of anemia (hemoglobin concentration <120 g/l and <130 g/l, for women and men, respectively) and renal impairment (creatinine clearance <60 ml/min) at baseline.

Results

Among 6029 patients undergoing PCI, anemia and renal impairment were observed isolated or in combination in 990 (16.4%), 384 (6.4%), and 309 (5.1%) patients, respectively. The most frequent transition was from PCI to death (6.7%, 95% CI 6.1–7.3), followed by ischemic events (4.8%, 95 CI 4.3–5.4) and bleeding (3.4%, 95% CI 3.0–3.9). Among patients with both anemia and renal impairment, the risk of death was increased 4-fold as compared to the reference group (HR 3.9, 95% CI 2.9–5.4) and roughly doubled as compared to patients with either anemia (HR 1.7, 95% CI 1.3–2.2) or renal impairment (HR 2.1, 95% CI 1.5–2.9) alone. Hazard ratios indicated an increased risk of bleeding in all three groups compared to patients with neither anemia nor renal impairment.

Conclusions

Applying a multi-state model we found evidence for a gradient of risk for the composite of bleeding, ischemic events, or death as a function of hemoglobin value and estimated glomerular filtration rate at baseline.     

Smoking,Menthol Cigarettes and All-Cause,Cancer and Cardiovascular Mortality: Evidence from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) and a Meta-Analysis

Background

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration has the authority to regulate tobacco product constituents, including menthol, if the scientific evidence indicates harm. Few studies, however, have evaluated the health effects of menthol cigarette use.

Objective

To investigate associations of cigarette smoking and menthol cigarette use with all-cause, cancer and cardiovascular risk in U.S. adults.

Methods

We studied 10,289 adults ≥ 20 years of age who participated in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey from 1999-2004 and were followed through December 2006. We also identified studies comparing risk of all-cause mortality, cardiovascular disease and cancer for menthol and nonmenthol cigarette smokers and estimates were pooled using random-effects models.

Results

Fifty-five percent of participants were never smokers compared to 23%, 17% and 5% of former, current nonmenthol and current menthol cigarette smokers, respectively. The adjusted hazard ratios (95% CI) for former, current nonmenthol and current menthol cigarette smokers compared to never smokers were 1.24 (0.96, 1.62), 2.40 (1.56, 3.71) and 2.07 (1.20, 3.58), respectively, for all-cause mortality; 0.92 (0.62, 1.37), 2.10 (1.02, 4.31) and 3.48 (1.52, 7.99) for cardiovascular mortality; and 1.91 (1.21, 3.00), 3.82 (2.19, 6.68) and 2.03 (1.00, 4.13) for cancer mortality. Using data from 3 studies of all-cause mortality, 5 of cardiovascular disease and 13 of cancer, the pooled relative risks (95% CI) comparing menthol cigarette smokers to nonmenthol cigarette smokers was 0.94 (0.85, 1.05) for all-cause mortality, 1.28 (0.91, 1.80) for cardiovascular disease and 0.84 (0.76, 0.92) for any cancer.

Conclusions

In a representative sample of U.S. adults, menthol cigarette smoking was associated with increased all-cause, cardiovascular and cancer mortality with no differences compared to nonmenthol cigarettes. In the systematic review, menthol cigarette use was associated with inverse risk of cancer compared to nonmenthol cigarette use with some evidence of an increased risk for cardiovascular disease.     

Association between Self-Reported General and Mental Health and Adverse Outcomes: A Retrospective Cohort Study of 19 625 Scottish Adults

Objective

Self-reported general health and mental health are independent predictors of all-cause mortality. This study examines whether they are also independent predictors of incident cancer, coronary heart disease and psychiatric hospitalisation.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective, population cohort study by linking the 19 625 Scottish adults who participated in the Scottish Health Surveys 1995–2003, to hospital admissions, cancer registration and death certificate records. We conducted Cox proportional hazard models adjusting for potential confounders including age, sex, socioeconomic status, alcohol, smoking status, body mass index, hypertension and diabetes.

Results

Poor general health was reported by 1215 (6.2%) participants and was associated with cancer registrations (adjusted Hazard Ratio [HR] 1.30, 95% CI 1.10, 1.55), coronary heart disease events (adjusted HR 2.30, 95% CI 1.86, 2.84) and psychiatric hospitalisations (adjusted HR 2.42, 95% CI 1.65, 3.56). There was evidence of dose relationships and the associations remained significant after adjustment for mental health. 3172 (16%) participants had poor mental health (GHQ ≥4). After adjustment for general health, the associations between poor mental health and coronary heart disease events (adjusted HR 1.36, 95% CI 1.13, 1.63) and all-cause death (adjusted HR 1.38, 95% CI 1.23, 1.55) became non-significant, but mental health remained associated with psychiatric hospitalisations (fully adjusted HR 2.02, 95% CI 1.48, 2.75).

Conclusion

Self-reported general health is a significant predictor of a range of clinical outcomes independent of mental health. The association between mental health and non-psychiatric outcomes is mediated by general health but it is an independent predictor of psychiatric outcome. Individuals with poor general health or mental health warrant close attention.     

A High Dietary Glycemic Index Increases Total Mortality in a Mediterranean Population at High Cardiovascular Risk

Objective

Different types of carbohydrates have diverse glycemic response, thus glycemic index (GI) and glycemic load (GL) are used to assess this variation. The impact of dietary GI and GL in all-cause mortality is unknown. The objective of this study was to estimate the association between dietary GI and GL and risk of all-cause mortality in the PREDIMED study.

Material and Methods

The PREDIMED study is a randomized nutritional intervention trial for primary cardiovascular prevention based on community-dwelling men and women at high risk of cardiovascular disease. Dietary information was collected at baseline and yearly using a validated 137-item food frequency questionnaire (FFQ). We assigned GI values of each item by a 5-step methodology, using the International Tables of GI and GL Values. Deaths were ascertained through contact with families and general practitioners, review of medical records and consultation of the National Death Index. Cox regression models were used to estimate multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HR) and their 95% CI for mortality, according to quartiles of energy-adjusted dietary GI/GL. To assess repeated measures of exposure, we updated GI and GL intakes from the yearly FFQs and used Cox models with time-dependent exposures.

Results

We followed 3,583 non-diabetic subjects (4.7 years of follow-up, 123 deaths). As compared to participants in the lowest quartile of baseline dietary GI, those in the highest quartile showed an increased risk of all-cause mortality [HR = 2.15 (95% CI: 1.15–4.04); P for trend  = 0.012]. In the repeated-measures analyses using as exposure the yearly updated information on GI, we observed a similar association. Dietary GL was associated with all-cause mortality only when subjects were younger than 75 years.

Conclusions

High dietary GI was positively associated with all-cause mortality in elderly population at high cardiovascular risk.     

Sagittal Abdominal Diameter Is an Independent Predictor of All-Cause and Cardiovascular Mortality in Incident Peritoneal Dialysis Patients

Backgrounds and Aims

Visceral fat has a crucial role in the development and progression of cardiovascular disease, the major cause of death in end-stage renal disease (ESRD). Although sagittal abdominal diameter (SAD), as an index of visceral fat, significantly correlated with mortality in the general population, the impact of SAD on clinical outcomes has never been explored in ESRD patients. Therefore, we sought to elucidate the prognostic value of SAD in incident peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients.

Methods

We prospectively determined SAD by lateral abdominal X-ray at PD initiation, and evaluated the association of SAD with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in 418 incident PD patients.

Results

The mean SAD was 24.5±4.3 cm, and during a mean follow-up of 39.4 months, 97 patients (23.2%) died, and 49.4% of them died due to cardiovascular disease. SAD was a significant independent predictor of all-cause [3rd versus 1st tertile, HR (hazard ratio): 3.333, 95% CI (confidence interval): 1.514–7.388, P = 0.01; per 1 cm increase, HR: 1.071, 95% CI: 1.005–1.141, P = 0.03] and cardiovascular mortality (3rd versus 1st tertile, HR: 8.021, 95% CI: 1.994–32.273, P = 0.01; per 1 cm increase, HR: 1.106, 95% CI: 1.007–1.214, P = 0.03). Multivariate fractional polynomial analysis also showed that all-cause and cardiovascular mortality risk increased steadily with higher SAD values. In addition, SAD provided higher predictive value for all-cause (AUC: 0.691 vs. 0.547, P<0.001) and cardiovascular mortality (AUC: 0.644 vs. 0.483, P<0.001) than body mass index (BMI). Subgroup analysis revealed higher SAD (≥24.2 cm) was significantly associated with all-cause mortality in men, women, younger patients (<65 years), and patients with lower BMI (<22.3 kg/m²).

Conclusions

SAD determined by lateral abdominal X-ray at PD initiation was a significant independent predictor of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in incident PD patients. Estimating visceral fat by SAD could be useful to stratify mortality risk in these patients.     

Reaction Time and Mortality from the Major Causes of Death: The NHANES-III Study

Objective

Studies examining the relation of information processing speed, as measured by reaction time, with mortality are scarce. We explored these associations in a representative sample of the US population.

Methods

Participants were 5,134 adults (2,342 men) aged 20–59 years from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III, 1988–94).

Results

Adjusted for age, sex, and ethnic minority status, a 1 SD slower reaction time was associated with a raised risk of mortality from all-causes (HR = 1.25, 95% CI 1.12, 1.39) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) (HR = 1.36, 95% CI 1.17, 1.58). Having 1 SD more variable reaction time was also associated with greater risk of all-cause (HR = 1.36, 95% CI 1.19, 1.55) and CVD (HR = 1.50, 95% CI 1.33, 1.70) mortality. No associations were observed for cancer mortality. The magnitude of the relationships was comparable in size to established risk factors in this dataset, such as smoking.

Interpretation

Alongside better-established risk factors, reaction time is associated with increased risk of premature death and cardiovascular disease. It is a candidate risk factor for all-cause and cause-specific mortality.     

Association of Left Ventricular Mass with All-Cause Mortality,Myocardial Infarction and Stroke

Background

Our aim was to assess the association of left ventricular mass with mortality and nonfatal cardiovascular events.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Left ventricular mass was measured by echocardiography in 40138 adult patients (mean age 61.1±16.4 years, 52.5% male). The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality. Secondary endpoints included nonfatal myocardial infarction and nonfatal stroke. During a mean follow-up period of 5.6±3.9 years, 9181 patients died, 901 patients had a nonfatal myocardial infarction, and 2139 patients had a nonfatal stroke. Cumulative 10-year mortality was 26.8%, 31.9%, 37.4% and 46.4% in patients with normal, mildly, moderately and severely increased left ventricular mass, respectively (p<0.001). Ten-year rates of nonfatal myocardial infarction and stroke ranged from 3.2% and 6.7% in patients with normal left ventricular mass to 5.3% and 12.7% in those with severe increase in left ventricular mass, respectively. After multivariate adjustment, left ventricular mass remained an independent predictor of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR] per 100 g increase 1.21, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.14–1–27, p<0.001 in women, and HR 1.09, 95% CI 1.04–1–13, p<0.001 in men), myocardial infarction (HR 1.60, 95% CI 1.31–1.94, p<0.001 in women and HR 1.15, 95% CI 1.02–1.29, p = 0.019 in men) and stroke (HR 1.26, 95% CI 1.13–1.40, p<0.001 in women and HR 1.19, 95% CI 1.09–1.30, p<0.001 in men).

Conclusions/Significance

Left ventricular mass has a graded and independent association with all-cause mortality, myocardial infarction and stroke.     

Geospatial Analysis on the Distributions of Tobacco Smoking and Alcohol Drinking in India

Background

Tobacco smoking and binge alcohol drinking are two of the leading risk factors for premature mortality worldwide. In India, studies have examined the geographic distributions of tobacco smoking and alcohol drinking only at the state-level; sub-state variations and the spatial association between the two consumptions are poorly understood.

Methodology

We used data from the Special Fertility and Mortality Survey conducted in 1998 to examine the geographic distributions of tobacco smoking and alcohol drinking at the district and postal code levels. We used kriging interpolation to generate smoking and drinking distributions at the postal code level. We also examined spatial autocorrelations and identified spatial clusters of high and low prevalence of smoking and drinking. Finally, we used bivariate analyses to examine the spatial correlations between smoking and drinking, and between cigarette and bidi smoking.

Results

There was a high prevalence of any smoking in the central and northeastern states, and a high prevalence of any drinking in Himachal Pradesh, Arunachal Pradesh, and eastern Madhya Pradesh. Spatial clusters of early smoking (started smoking before age 20) were identified in the central states. Cigarette and bidi smoking showed distinctly different geographic patterns, with high levels of cigarette smoking in the northeastern states and high levels of bidi smoking in the central states. The geographic pattern of bidi smoking was similar to early smoking. Cigarette smoking was spatially associated with any drinking. Smoking prevalences in 1998 were correlated with prevalences in 2004 at the district level and 2010 at the state level.

Conclusion

These results along with earlier evidence on the complementarities between tobacco smoking and alcohol drinking suggest that local public health action on smoking might also help to reduce alcohol consumption, and vice versa. Surveys that properly represent tobacco and alcohol consumptions at the district level are recommended.     

Mortality in GOLD stages of COPD and its dependence on symptoms of chronic bronchitis

Background

The GOLD classification of COPD severity introduces a stage 0 (at risk) comprising individuals with productive cough and normal lung function. The aims of this study were to investigate total mortality risks in GOLD stages 0–4 with special focus on stage 0, and furthermore to assess the influence of symptoms of chronic bronchitis on mortality risks in GOLD stages 1–4.

Method

Between 1974 and 1992, a total of 22 044 middle-aged individuals participated in a health screening, which included a spirometry as well as recording of respiratory symptoms and smoking habits. Individuals with comorbidity at baseline (diabetes, stroke, cancer, angina pectoris, or heart infarction) were excluded from the analyses. Hazard ratios (HR 95% CI) of total mortality were analyzed in GOLD stages 0–4 with individuals with normal lung function and without symptoms of chronic bronchitis as a reference group. HR:s in smoking individuals with symptoms of chronic bronchitis within the stages 1–4 were calculated with individuals with the same GOLD stage but without symptoms of chronic bronchitis as reference.

Results

The number of deaths was 3674 for men and 832 for women based on 352 324 and 150 050 person-years respectively. The proportion of smokers among men was 50% and among women 40%. Self reported comorbidity was present in 4.6% of the men and 6.6% of the women. Among smoking men, Stage 0 was associated with an increased mortality risk, HR; 1.65 (1.32–2.08), of similar magnitude as in stage 2, HR; 1.41 (1.31–1.70). The hazard ratio in stage 0 was significantly higher than in stage 1 HR; 1.13 (0.98–1.29). Among male smokers with stage 1; HR: 2.04 (1.34–3.11), and among female smokers with stage 2 disease; HR: 3.16 (1.38–7.23), increased HR:s were found in individuals with symptoms of chronic bronchitis as compared to those without symptoms of chronic bronchitis.

Conclusion

Symptoms fulfilling the definition of chronic bronchitis were associated with an increased mortality risk among male smokers with normal pulmonary function (stage 0) and also with an increased risk of death among smoking individuals with mild to moderate COPD (stage 1 and 2).     

The Association between Postload Plasma Glucose Levels and 38-Year Mortality Risk of Coronary Heart Disease: The Prospective NHLBI Twin Study

Background

Due to the paucity of direct evidence, we aimed to evaluate whether the association between postload plasma glucose levels (ppGlucose) and long-term risk of mortality from coronary heart disease was independent of or attributable to genes and common environment.

Methods and Findings

From the prospective National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI) Twin Study, we included 903 middle-aged male twins, who were nondiabetic, free of coronary heart disease at baseline (1969–1973), and followed for up to 38 years for coronary heart, cardiovascular, and all-cause mortality. Frailty survival models were used to estimate hazard ratio (HR) for various associations: overall (equivalent to singleton population association), within-pair (controlling for genes and environment common to co-twins), and between-pair association (reflecting influences of common factors). Overall associations were statistically significant for coronary heart and cardiovascular but not all-cause deaths after controlling for known risk factors. The associations were not statistically significant in within-pair analyses. The within-pair association was not statistically different by zygosity for specific and all-cause death risk. After the full adjustment for known risk factors, HR (95% confidence interval) for within-pair association was 1.07 (0.90, 1.28), 1.06 (0.94, 1.19), and 0.99 (0.94, 1.05) for coronary heart, cardiovascular, and all-cause mortality, respectively. The fully adjusted between-pair associations were statistically significant for specific and all-cause death risk: a 50 mg/dL increase in the mean value of ppGlucose for a twin pair was associated with a raised death risk [HR (95% confidence interval) 1.15 (1.02, 1.30), 1.10 (1.02, 1.20), and 1.05 (1.01, 1.09) for coronary heart, cardiovascular, and all-cause mortality, respectively]. Between-pair association was significant in dizygotic but not in monozygotic twins.

Conclusion

The positive association between ppGlucose and long-term coronary heart mortality risk is largely explained by factors shared between co-twins, including familial factors; however, within-pair effects cannot be absolutely excluded.     

Vascular Disease and Risk Stratification for Ischemic Stroke and All-Cause Death in Heart Failure Patients without Diagnosed Atrial Fibrillation: A Nationwide Cohort Study

Background

Stroke and mortality risk among heart failure patients previously diagnosed with different manifestations of vascular disease is poorly described. We conducted an observational study to evaluate the stroke and mortality risk among heart failure patients without diagnosed atrial fibrillation and with peripheral artery disease (PAD) or prior myocardial infarction (MI).

Methods

Population-based cohort study of patients diagnosed with incident heart failure during 2000–2012 and without atrial fibrillation, identified by record linkage between nationwide registries in Denmark. Hazard rate ratios of ischemic stroke and all-cause death after 1 year of follow-up were used to compare patients with either: a PAD diagnosis; a prior MI diagnosis; or no vascular disease.

Results

39,357 heart failure patients were included. When compared to heart failure patients with no vascular disease, PAD was associated with a higher 1-year rate of ischemic stroke (adjusted hazard rate ratio [HR]: 1.34, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.08–1.65) and all-cause death (adjusted HR: 1.47, 95% CI: 1.35–1.59), whereas prior MI was not (adjusted HR: 1.00, 95% CI: 0.86–1.15 and 0.94, 95% CI: 0.89–1.00, for ischemic stroke and all-cause death, respectively). When comparing patients with PAD to patients with prior MI, PAD was associated with a higher rate of both outcomes.

Conclusions

Among incident heart failure patients without diagnosed atrial fibrillation, a previous diagnosis of PAD was associated with a significantly higher rate of the ischemic stroke and all-cause death compared to patients with no vascular disease or prior MI. Prevention strategies may be particularly relevant among HF patients with PAD.     

Association between Resistin Levels and All-Cause and Cardiovascular Mortality: A New Study and a Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Context

Studies concerning the association between circulating resistin and mortality risk have reported, so far, conflicting results.

Objective

To investigate the association between resistin and both all-cause and cardiovascular (CV) mortality risk by 1) analyzing data from the Gargano Heart Study (GHS) prospective design (n=359 patients; 81 and 58 all-cause and CV deaths, respectively); 2) performing meta-analyses of all published studies addressing the above mentioned associations.

Data Source and Study Selection

MEDLINE and Web of Science search of studies reporting hazard ratios (HR) of circulating resistin for all-cause or CV mortality.

Data Extraction

Performed independently by two investigators, using a standardized data extraction sheet.

Data Synthesis

In GHS, adjusted HRs per one standard deviation (SD) increment in resistin concentration were 1.28 (95% CI: 1.07-1.54) and 1.32 (95% CI: 1.06-1.64) for all-cause and CV mortality, respectively. The meta-analyses included 7 studies (n=4016; 961 events) for all-cause mortality and 6 studies (n=4,187: 412 events) for CV mortality. Pooled HRs per one SD increment in resistin levels were 1.21 (95% CI: 1.03-1.42, Q-test p for heterogeneity<0.001) and 1.05 (95% CI: 1.01-1.10, Q-test p for heterogeneity=0.199) for all-cause and CV mortality, respectively. At meta-regression analyses, study mean age explained 9.9% of all-cause mortality studies heterogeneity. After adjusting for age, HR for all-cause mortality was 1.24 (95% CI: 1.06-1.45).

Conclusions

Our results provide evidence for an association between circulating resistin and mortality risk among high-risk patients as are those with diabetes and coronary artery disease.