全球四大湾区生态环境综合评价研究

全球四大湾区既是经济发达区,也是生态环境脆弱区,对全球可持续发展至关重要。粤港澳大湾区的生态环境问题正在限制其可持续发展,有碍于全面建成国际一流湾区目标的实现。然而,过去的研究对生态环境方面关注较少,缺少湾区生态环境综合评价体系的构建。通过综合国内外统计和遥感多源数据,建立四大湾区生态环境评价数据库;围绕生态质量,环境质量和资源利用效率建立指标体系,构建湾区生态环境综合评价指数。结果表明:2015年,生态环境综合评价,东京湾区>旧金山湾区>纽约湾区>粤港澳大湾区;生态质量,纽约湾区>旧金山湾区>粤港澳大湾区>东京湾区;环境质量,旧金山湾区>东京湾区>纽约湾区>粤港澳大湾区;资源利用效率,东京湾区>旧金山湾区>纽约湾区>粤港澳大湾区。2005—2015年,粤港澳大湾区环境质量增速缓慢,在生态质量和资源利用效率增幅排名首位。旧金山湾区和纽约湾区优势在生态和环境质量,短板在资源利用效率;东京湾区在资源利用效率方面优势明显,短板在生态质量;综合来看,粤港澳大湾区与其他湾区都存在差距。研究建议粤港澳大湾区从生态空间、生态环境...     

Climate change and variability impacts on grazing herds: Insights from a system dynamics approach for semi‐arid Australian rangelands

Grazing livestock are an important source of food and income for millions of people worldwide. Changes in mean climate and increasing climate variability are affecting grasslands' carrying capacity, thus threatening the livelihood of millions of people as well as the health of grassland ecosystems. Compared with cropping systems, relatively little is known about the impact of such climatic changes on grasslands and livestock productivity and the adaptation responses available to farmers. In this study, we analysed the relationship between changes in mean precipitation, precipitation variability, farming practices and grazing cattle using a system dynamics approach for a semi‐arid Australian rangeland system. We found that forage production and animal stocking rates were significantly affected by drought intensities and durations as well as by long‐term climate trends. After a drought event, herd size recovery times ranged from years to decades in the absence of proactive restocking through animal purchases. Decreases in the annual precipitation means or increases in the interannual (year‐to‐year) and intra‐annual (month‐to‐month) precipitation variability, all reduced herd sizes. The contribution of farming practices versus climate effect on herd dynamics varied depending on the herd characteristics considered. Climate contributed the most to the variance in stocking rates, followed by forage productivity levels and feeding supplementation practices (with or without urea and molasses). While intensification strategies and favourable climates increased long‐term herd sizes, they also resulted in larger reductions in animal numbers during droughts and raised total enteric methane emissions. In the face of future climate trends, the grazing sector will need to increase its adaptability. Understanding which farming strategies can be beneficial, where, and when, as well as the enabling mechanisms required to implement them, will be critical for effectively improving rangelands and the livelihoods of pastoralists worldwide.     

Mosquito control opportunities amid regulations within the tidal marshes of the San Francisco Bay Area

The San Francisco Bay Area is a leader in environmental stewardship and home to numerous wetland restoration projects including the largest tidal wetland restoration project on the American West Coast. As tidal marsh wetlands are restored throughout the Bay Area many opportunities remain to reaffirm the importance of water management that reduces mosquito production and protects public health. Unlike the early 1900s when long term saltmarsh mosquito control was achieved with large scale surface water management projects, regulatory restrictions produce new hurdles that impact mosquito control and restoration projects alike. Work done in the wetlands surrounding the San Francisco Bay must comply with existing management plans, permit requirements, and government regulations. The same is true for emerging technologies. While unmanned airsystems employed for mosquito control improves efficiency and accuracy, regulations in this arena limit their broad use in wetlands that abut the San Francisco Bay. Mosquito abatement districts collect substantial scientific data that inform land management and mosquito control operations. This information is useful for evaluating wetland restoration progress in the Bay Area and fostering partnerships that keep a public health perspective at the forefront.

     

A Geographic Mosaic of Climate Change Impacts on Terrestrial Vegetation: Which Areas Are Most at Risk?

Changes in climate projected for the 21^st century are expected to trigger widespread and pervasive biotic impacts. Forecasting these changes and their implications for ecosystem services is a major research goal. Much of the research on biotic responses to climate change has focused on either projected shifts in individual species distributions or broad-scale changes in biome distributions. Here, we introduce a novel application of multinomial logistic regression as a powerful approach to model vegetation distributions and potential responses to 21^st century climate change. We modeled the distribution of 22 major vegetation types, most defined by a single dominant woody species, across the San Francisco Bay Area. Predictor variables included climate and topographic variables. The novel aspect of our model is the output: a vector of relative probabilities for each vegetation type in each location within the study domain. The model was then projected for 54 future climate scenarios, spanning a representative range of temperature and precipitation projections from the CMIP3 and CMIP5 ensembles. We found that sensitivity of vegetation to climate change is highly heterogeneous across the region. Surprisingly, sensitivity to climate change is higher closer to the coast, on lower insolation, north-facing slopes and in areas of higher precipitation. While such sites may provide refugia for mesic and cool-adapted vegetation in the face of a warming climate, the model suggests they will still be highly dynamic and relatively sensitive to climate-driven vegetation transitions. The greater sensitivity of moist and low insolation sites is an unexpected outcome that challenges views on the location and stability of climate refugia. Projections provide a foundation for conservation planning and land management, and highlight the need for a greater understanding of the mechanisms and time scales of potential climate-driven vegetation transitions.     

Rangeland utilization in Mediterranean farming systems

In the countries surrounding the Mediterranean basin, most of the semi-natural grazing lands are covered by rangelands. Rangelands can be defined as highly heterogeneous natural vegetation communities with high conservation value, growing in harsh environments (poor soils, unfavourable climatic conditions). In the recent socio-economic context, traditional livestock grazing practices that enabled one to reconcile rangeland preservation and animal production no longer apply, especially because they require labour that has become scarce and costly. The consequence is rangeland degradation, due to underutilization in Southern Europe, and overutilization in Northern Africa. We analysed issues raised by rangeland utilization in livestock farming systems of the Mediterranean basin. Based on a review of the scientific literature about rangeland utilization in this area, we argue that the best way to reconcile animal production and rangeland preservation would be to promote management practices allowing animals to express their adaptative capacities in feeding behaviour and productive response. In order to propose management practices adapted to extensive and simplified systems, we conclude that research efforts should focus on: (i) proposing a functional characterization of vegetation heterogeneity at the scale of the vegetation community, (ii) validating the criteria determining animals' foraging behaviour on Mediterranean rangelands, (iii) developing and using simulation models to test management strategies against seasonal and long-term variability in climatic conditions and (iv) evaluating the potential of modern technologies for improving rangeland utilization.     

Habitat associations of bats in a working rangeland landscape

Land‐use change has resulted in rangeland loss and degradation globally. These changes include conversion of native grasslands for row‐crop agriculture as well as degradation of remaining rangeland due to fragmentation and changing disturbance regimes. Understanding how these and other factors influence wildlife use of rangelands is important for conservation and management of wildlife populations. We investigated bat habitat associations in a working rangeland in southeastern North Dakota. We used Petterson d500x acoustic detectors to systematically sample bat activity across the study area on a 1‐km point grid. We identified calls using Sonobat autoclassification software. We detected five species using this working rangeland, which included Lasionycteris noctivagans (2,722 detections), Lasiurus cinereus (2,055 detections), Eptesicus fuscus (749 detections), Lasiurus borealis (62 detections), and Myotis lucifugus (1 detection). We developed generalized linear mixed‐effects models for the four most frequently detected species based on their ecology. The activity of three bat species increased with higher tree cover. While the scale of selection varied between the four species, all three investigated scales were explanatory for at least one bat species. The broad importance of trees to bats in rangelands may put their conservation needs at odds with those of obligate grassland species. Focusing rangeland bat conservation on areas that were treed prior to European settlement, such as riparian forests, can provide important areas for bat conservation while minimizing negative impacts on grassland species.     

Restaurant noise,hearing loss,and hearing aids.

Our multidisciplinary team obtained noise data in 27 San Francisco Bay Area restaurants. These data included typical minimum, peak, and average sound pressure levels; digital tape recordings; subjective noise ratings; and on-site unaided and aided speech discrimination tests. We report the details and implications of these noise measurements and provide basic information on selecting hearing aids and suggestions for coping with restaurant noise.     

基于牧户感知和野外调查相结合的内蒙古东部草甸草原健康评价

治理草原退化是我国草原管理的重点和难点。我国目前关于草原退化判断、退化程度、原因及治理等系列问题的确定几乎皆以科学研究结果为依据,而忽视了牧户作为草原直接使用者和管理者的重要性。牧户对草原有自己的判断和认知,其与科学方法研究之间的矛盾已经影响到草原生态保护政策的有效实施。以内蒙古东部草甸草原牧户尺度草原为研究对象,借助牧户调研和野外调查相结合的方法,将牧户划分为高、中、低3个经济水平,并运用Condition-Vigor-Organization-Resilience (CVOR)指数评价法,分析评价草原生态系统健康状况。研究结果显示,牧户对草原健康状况的感知主要从植被、土壤、牲畜等方面,与科学方法评价指标选取具有相似性;牧户感知和CVOR指数法评价结果具有一致性,均判定草原生态系统呈现不同程度退化;统计检验显示牧户对植被、土壤、牲畜影响等指标变化感知方面均不存在显著差异(P0.05),CVOR指数法下不同经济水平牧户草场健康指数之间亦无显著差异(P0.05),两种方法均显示不同经济水平牧户草场退化程度无显著差异(P0.05)。研究证实了牧户感知在指标选取、评价结果方面具备用于准确评价草原健康状况的可行性和可信度。两种方法相互补充,将有利于更加准确、实时动态监测和评价牧户尺度草原生态健康状况,为调整优化畜牧业生产实践提供指导和草原生态保护和建设政策的有效实施提供保障。     

Land management implications for ecosystem services in a South African rangeland

In South Africa, restoration and sustainable management of historically overgrazed and degraded rangelands are promoted to increase biodiversity and ecosystem service provision. This study evaluates different land management scenarios in terms of ecosystem services in a South African rangeland, the Baviaanskloof catchment. As measured data were limited, we used simple models to quantify and map the effect of the different combination of agricultural, nature conservation and restoration practices on multiple ecosystem services. The land management scenarios were evaluated against management targets set for individual ecosystem services. Results highlight how the provision of ecosystem services is related to land management as unmanaged, pristine ecosystems provide a different mix of ecosystem services than ecosystems recently restored or managed as grazing lands. Results also indicate that historically overgrazed lands provide no forage, may retain 40% less sediment and have 38% lower biodiversity, while providing 60% more fuel wood and supplying two and half times more water (i.e. retaining less water), than pristine or restored lands. We conclude that a combination of light grazing, low input agriculture, nature conservation and restoration is the best for the sufficient provision of multiple ecosystem services. Applying such mixed management would improve biodiversity, ecotourism and maintain forage production and regulating services on farmers’ land. This management option also fits into and further optimizes local decision-makers’ vision regarding the future management of the area.     

藏北高寒草地生态补偿机制与方案

根据藏北那曲高寒草地的生产力、季节放牧重要性、生态服务价值、生态环境敏感性,构建了基于草地亚类的功能分区模型,从空间上将高寒草地划分为适度生产功能区、减畜恢复功能区和禁牧封育功能区,据此构建了基于高寒草地功能分区的分级生态补偿模式,设计了高寒草地生态补偿的组织管理体系及流程、生态补偿的损益评估机制和约束奖惩机制;提出了针对不同功能区的生态补偿方案.根据藏北那曲高寒草地功能分区结果和不同功能区生态补偿内容和目标,确定生态补偿周期为5a,核算出适度生产功能区、减畜恢复功能区和禁牧封育保护功能区分别需要补偿资金19.4亿元、15.77亿元和0.6亿元,每年分别需补偿资金3.88亿元、3.16亿元和0.12亿元,5a全区共需补偿资金35.77亿元,年需7.16亿元.通过对高寒草地的功能分区分级生态补偿,对提高高寒草地的生态保护能力,增加牧民的经济收入,促进藏北高寒草地生态系统的可持续发展具有重要的理论和实践意义.     

Diversity of desert rangelands of Tunisia

Plants are important components of any rangeland. However, the importance of desert rangeland plant diversity has often been underestimated. It has been argued that desert rangelands of Tunisia in good ecological condition provide more services than those in poor ecological condition. This is because rangelands in good condition support a more diverse mixture of vegetation with many benefits, such as forage for livestock and medicinal plants. Nearly one-quarter of Tunisia, covering about 5.5 million hectares, are rangelands, of which 87% are located in the arid and desert areas (45% and 42%, respectively). Here, we provide a brief review of the floristic richness of desert rangelands of Tunisia. Approximately 135 species are specific to desert rangelands. The predominant families are Asteraceae, Poaceae, Brassicaceae, Chenopodiaceae, and Fabaceae. These represent approximately 50% of Tunisian desert flora.     

Distribution and abundance of fishes in the San Francisco Bay estuary between 1980 and 1982

In 1980 a long-term study of the fishery resources of the San Francisco Bay estuary was initiated in an effort to delineate the importance of freshwater inflow to fish and invertebrate abundance and distribution in the bay. An analysis of the trawl data collected between January 1980 and December 1982 illustrates the influence of the timing and magnitude of freshwater inflows on fish fistribution and abundance in this estuary from the perspective of monthly, seasonal and annual time scales. Normally found in the delta, Suisun Bay and San Pablo Bay during periods of increased salinity, pelagic species moved downstream after the two peak flows studied, while demersal species usually found in Central San Francisco Bay moved upstream. Such upstream movements may be due in part to transport by strong density-driven currents.Timing and magnitude of monthly catches of some species varied on a seasonal cycle coincident with variations of freshwater inflow. Most species, especially the marine species, showed no consistent cycle of monthly catches. In the wet years of 1980 and 1982 the distributions of freshwater, estuarine and anadromous species were extended downstream into San Pablo, Central and South San Francisco Bays and some marine species, including the flatfish, were more abundant in the upstream areas. In the dry year of 1981 when bay salinities were higher, few marine species extended their distributions upstream into San Pablo and Suisun Bays. Jacksmelt was the only fish of the 15 most abundant species with its peak abundance in 1981. Most marine species were more abundant in the San Francisco Bay estuary in the wet years.     

中国牧区草地移动性利用的丧失和重建

草地利用移动性的丧失导致生态系统退化,是草地放牧生态学领域兴起的主导性学说.在我国,草地利用移动性的丧失不仅是政策变化导致的,更是众多自然和社会因素叠加演进的结果.草地利用移动性的重建对于中国草地恢复和可持续性管理具有重要意义,但是很难通过恢复传统或季节性轮牧的途径实现.我们可以依托智能围栏、牲畜智能可穿戴设备以及草地...     

Carrying capacity in arid rangelands during droughts: the role of temporal and spatial thresholds

Assessing the carrying capacity is of primary importance in arid rangelands. This becomes even more important during droughts, when rangelands exhibit non-equilibrium dynamics, and the dynamics of livestock conditions and forage resource are decoupled. Carrying capacity is usually conceived as an equilibrium concept, that is, the consumer density that can co-exist in long-term equilibrium with the resource. As one of the first, here we address the concept of carrying capacity in systems, where there is no feedback between consumer and resource in a limited period of time. To this end, we developed an individual-based model describing the basic characteristics of a rangeland during a drought. The model represents a rangeland composed by a single water point and forage distributed all around, with livestock units moving from water to forage and vice versa, for eating and drinking. For each livestock unit we implemented an energy balance and we accounted for the gut-filling effect (i.e. only a limited amount of forage can be ingested per unit time). Our results showed that there is a temporal threshold above which livestock begin to experience energy deficit and burn fat reserves. We demonstrated that such a temporal threshold increases with the number of animals and decreases with the rangeland conditions (amount of forage). The temporal threshold corresponded to the time livestock take to consume all the forage within a certain distance from water, so that the livestock can return to water for drinking without spending more energy than they gain within a day. In this study, we highlight the importance of a time threshold in the assessment of carrying capacity in non-equilibrium conditions. Considering this time threshold could explain contrasting observations about the influence of livestock number on livestock conditions. In case of private rangelands, the herd size should be chosen so that the spatial threshold equals (or exceeds) the length of the drought.     

Hypoallergenic Breads—Wheat Content of Products Available in the San Francisco Bay Area

Substantial amounts of soluble wheat antigens have been found in breads sold as “wheat-free” in the San Francisco Bay Area. Physicians with patients on a wheat-free diet are urged to exercise careful supervision over their patients'' choice of such breads.     

A century of landscape disturbance and urbanization of the San Francisco Bay region affects the present-day genetic diversity of the California Ridgway’s rail (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Rallus obsoletus obsoletus</Emphasis>)

Fragmentation and loss of natural habitat have important consequences for wild populations and can negatively affect long-term viability and resilience to environmental change. Salt marsh obligate species, such as those that occupy the San Francisco Bay Estuary in western North America, occupy already impaired habitats as result of human development and modifications and are highly susceptible to increased habitat loss and fragmentation due to global climate change. We examined the genetic variation of the California Ridgway’s rail (Rallus obsoletus obsoletus), a state and federally endangered species that occurs within the fragmented salt marsh of the San Francisco Bay Estuary. We genotyped 107 rails across 11 microsatellite loci and a single mitochondrial gene to estimate genetic diversity and population structure among seven salt marsh fragments and assessed demographic connectivity by inferring patterns of gene flow and migration rates. We found pronounced genetic structuring among four geographically separate genetic clusters across the San Francisco Bay. Gene flow analyses supported a stepping stone model of gene flow from south-to-north. However, contemporary gene flow among the regional embayments was low. Genetic diversity among occupied salt marshes and genetic clusters were not significantly different. We detected low effective population sizes and significantly high relatedness among individuals within salt marshes. Preserving genetic diversity and connectivity throughout the San Francisco Bay may require attention to salt marsh restoration in the Central Bay where habitat is both most limited and most fragmented. Incorporating periodic genetic sampling into the management regime may help evaluate population trends and guide long-term management priorities.     

Unmanned aerial systems accurately map rangeland condition indicators in a dryland savannah

Dry savannahs are highly sensitive to climate change and under intense anthropogenic pressure. Therefore, the methods for assessing their status should be easy and repeatable. Monitoring through satellite data and field measurements are limited in accurately assessing the spatiotemporal dynamics of ecosystems. Fortunately, emerging technologies like Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) allow to transcend these limitations. But their calibration with field data for application in rangelands is still relatively new and less common than for example in precision agriculture. In this study we developed a drone-based workflow for mapping the condition of rangelands in dryland savannah. We evaluated how accurately and efficiently the two common indicators (i.e., potential forage biomass and rangeland cover type) of rangeland condition can be estimated from drone imagery across a range of conditions (i.e., highly degraded to healthy rangelands). To develop the drone-based potential forage biomass model we tested the accuracy of four vegetation indices to predict field biomass, with the optimized soil adjusted vegetation index (OSAVI) showing the highest prediction accuracy (R² = 0.89 and RMSE = 194.05). The OSAVI-based model yielded a significant strong relationship (R² = 0.80, p < 0.001) between predicted and field observed potential forage biomass across the rangeland system. For land cover, we applied a decision tree classification based on thresholds determined using data mining, with a mean overall accuracy of 95.8%. The drone-based estimates of bare cover, herbaceous cover and woody cover showed strong agreements (R² ranging between 0.86 and 0.97) with the two image-truthing methods (line-point intercept and visual estimations) tested. We show that the drone-based approach is more efficient, unbiased, and repeatable than the field methods. Based on these results, the drone-based workflow presented here offers a reproducible, accurate and efficient approach for near-real time monitoring of rangeland condition at a landscape level. This may assist with climate-adapted management to prevent further land degradation and associated threats to biodiversity and human livelihoods.     

Insect Conservation in an Urban Biodiversity Hotspot: The San Francisco Bay Area

The San Francisco Bay Area hosts a diverse insect fauna and a dense cluster of urban areas. The high diversity of insects in the Bay Area arises for three primary reasons: its location in the California biotic province, the diverse local environment and the entomologist-area effect. The juxtaposition of high insect diversity and an area intensively used by humans led to the first recorded extinction as well as the first efforts to conserve insects in the United States. Habitat loss due to urbanization, agriculture, and invasive species is largely responsible for local extinctions and reduction in abundance of the remaining species. Invasive species such as the Argentine ant and pathogens causing mortality of oaks and pines are poised to have substantial impacts on the insect fauna of the Bay Area in the near future. Understanding which taxa can or cannot persist in remnant habitat patches within an urban or agricultural matrix, and what management practices would encourage persistence should be a focus of future research. Assessments of population status should be focused on insects at risk of extinction because of their restricted geographic ranges, low vagility, interactions with invasive species, or known reduction in their habitat. Assessments that combine examinations of museum collections, literature, and field surveys might enable determination of the status of many species within the Bay Area. Such an approach might better define the scope and magnitude of the problem of conserving insects in an increasingly urbanized region.     

Hybridization between introduced smooth cordgrass (Spartina alterniflora; Poaceae) and native California cordgrass (S. foliosa) in San Francisco Bay, California, USA

Introduced Spartina alterniflora (smooth cordgrass) is rapidly invading intertidal mudflats in San Francisco Bay, California. At several sites, S. alterniflora co-occurs with native S. foliosa (California cordgrass), a species endemic to California salt marshes. In this study, random amplified polymorphic DNA markers (RAPDs) specific to each Spartina species were identified and used to test for hybridization between the native and introduced Spartina species in the greenhouse and in the field. Greenhouse crosses were made using S. alterniflora as the pollen donor and S. foliosa as the maternal plant, and these crosses produced viable seeds. The hybrid status of the crossed offspring was confirmed with the RAPD markers. Hybrids had low self-fertility but high fertility when back-crossed with S. foliosa pollen. Hybrids were also found established at two field sites in San Francisco Bay; these hybrids appeared vigorous and morphologically intermediate between the parental species. Field observations suggested that hybrids were recruiting more rapidly than the native S. foliosa. Previous work identified competition from introduced S. alterniflora as a threat to native S. foliosa. In this study, we identify introgression and the spread of hybrids as an additional, perhaps even more serious threat to conservation of S. foliosa in San Francisco Bay.     

Phenotypic distribution models corroborate species distribution models: A shift in the role and prevalence of a dominant prairie grass in response to climate change

Phenotypic distribution within species can vary widely across environmental gradients but forecasts of species’ responses to environmental change often assume species respond homogenously across their ranges. We compared predictions from species and phenotype distribution models under future climate scenarios for Andropogon gerardii, a widely distributed, dominant grass found throughout the central United States. Phenotype data on aboveground biomass, height, leaf width, and chlorophyll content were obtained from 33 populations spanning a ~1000 km gradient that encompassed the majority of the species’ environmental range. Species and phenotype distribution models were trained using current climate conditions and projected to future climate scenarios. We used permutation procedures to infer the most important variable for each model. The species‐level response to climate was most sensitive to maximum temperature of the hottest month, but phenotypic variables were most sensitive to mean annual precipitation. The phenotype distribution models predict that A. gerardii could be largely functionally eliminated from where this species currently dominates, with biomass and height declining by up to ~60% and leaf width by ~20%. By the 2070s, the core area of highest suitability for A. gerardii is projected to shift up to ~700 km northeastward. Further, short‐statured phenotypes found in the present‐day short grass prairies on the western periphery of the species’ range will become favored in the current core ~800 km eastward of their current location. Combined, species and phenotype models predict this currently dominant prairie grass will decline in prevalence and stature. Thus, sourcing plant material for grassland restoration and forage should consider changes in the phenotype that will be favored under future climate conditions. Phenotype distribution models account for the role of intraspecific variation in determining responses to anticipated climate change and thereby complement predictions from species distributions models in guiding climate adaptation strategies.