Microstructural White Matter Changes,Not Hippocampal Atrophy,Detect Early Amnestic Mild Cognitive Impairment

Background

Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is generally considered to be characterized by pathology in gray matter of the brain, but convergent evidence suggests that white matter degradation also plays a vital role in its pathogenesis. The evolution of white matter deterioration and its relationship with gray matter atrophy remains elusive in amnestic mild cognitive impairment (aMCI), a prodromal stage of AD.

Methods

We studied 155 cognitively normal (CN) and 27 ‘late’ aMCI individuals with stable diagnosis over 2 years, and 39 ‘early’ aMCI individuals who had converted from CN to aMCI at 2-year follow up. Diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) tractography was used to reconstruct six white matter tracts three limbic tracts critical for episodic memory function - the fornix, the parahippocampal cingulum, and the uncinate fasciculus; two cortico-cortical association fiber tracts - superior longitudinal fasciculus and inferior longitudinal fasciculus; and one projection fiber tract - corticospinal tract. Microstructural integrity as measured by fractional anisotropy (FA), mean diffusivity (MD), radial diffusivity (RD) and axial diffusivity (AxD) was assessed for these tracts.

Results

Compared with CN, late aMCI had lower white matter integrity in the fornix, the parahippocampal cingulum, and the uncinate fasciculus, while early aMCI showed white matter damage in the fornix. In addition, fornical measures were correlated with hippocampal atrophy in late aMCI, whereas abnormality of the fornix in early aMCI occurred in the absence of hippocampal atrophy and did not correlate with hippocampal volumes.

Conclusions

Limbic white matter tracts are preferentially affected in the early stages of cognitive dysfunction. Microstructural degradation of the fornix preceding hippocampal atrophy may serve as a novel imaging marker for aMCI at an early stage.     

Electrophysiological Correlates of Amnestic Mild Cognitive Impairment in a Simon Task

Amnestic mild cognitive impairment (aMCI) represents a prodromal stage of Alzheimer`s disease (AD), especially when additional cognitive domains are affected (Petersen et al., 2009). Thus, single-domain amnestic MCI (sdaMCI) and multiple-domain-amnestic MCI (mdaMCI) biomarkers are important for enabling early interventions to help slow down progression of the disease. Recording event-related potentials (ERPs) is a non-invasive and inexpensive measure of brain activity associated with cognitive processes, and it is of interest from a clinical point of view. The ERP technique may also be useful for obtaining early sdaMCI and mdaMCI biomarkers because ERPs are sensitive to impairment in processes that are not manifested at behavioral or clinical levels. In the present study, EEG activity was recorded in 25 healthy participants and 30 amnestic MCI patients (17 sdaMCI and 13 mdaMCI) while they performed a Simon task. The ERPs associated with visuospatial (N2 posterior-contralateral – N2pc -) and motor (lateralized readiness potential – LRP –) processes were examined. The N2pc amplitude was smaller in participants with mdaMCI than in healthy participants, which indicated a decline in the correlates of allocation of attentional resources to the target stimulus. In addition, N2pc amplitude proved to be a moderately good biomarker of mdaMCI subtype (0.77 sensitivity, 0.76 specificity). However, the LRP amplitude was smaller in the two MCI groups (sdaMCI and mdaMCI) than in healthy participants, revealing a reduction in the motor resources available to execute the response in sdaMCI and mdaMCI patients. Furthermore, the LRP amplitude proved to be a valid biomarker (0.80 sensitivity, 0.92 specificity) of both amnestic MCI subtypes.     

Functional Neural Correlates of Attentional Deficits in Amnestic Mild Cognitive Impairment

Although amnestic mild cognitive impairment (aMCI; often considered a prodromal phase of Alzheimer’s disease, AD) is most recognized by its implications for decline in memory function, research suggests that deficits in attention are present early in aMCI and may be predictive of progression to AD. The present study used functional magnetic resonance imaging to examine differences in the brain during the attention network test between 8 individuals with aMCI and 8 neurologically healthy, demographically matched controls. While there were no significant behavioral differences between groups for the alerting and orienting functions, patients with aMCI showed more activity in neural regions typically associated with the networks subserving these functions (e.g., temporoparietal junction and posterior parietal regions, respectively). More importantly, there were both behavioral (i.e., greater conflict effect) and corresponding neural deficits in executive control (e.g., less activation in the prefrontal and anterior cingulate cortices). Although based on a small number of patients, our findings suggest that deficits of attention, especially the executive control of attention, may significantly contribute to the behavioral and cognitive deficits of aMCI.     

Famous Landmark Identification in Amnestic Mild Cognitive Impairment and Alzheimer's Disease

Background

Identification of famous landmarks (FLI), famous faces (FFI) and recognition of facial emotions (FER) is affected early in the course of Alzheimer''s disease (AD). FFI, FER and FLI may represent domain specific tasks relying on activation of distinct regions of the medial temporal lobe, which are affected successively during the course of AD. However, the data on FFI and FER in MCI are controversial and FLI domain remains almost unexplored.

Objectives

To determine whether and how are these three specific domains impaired in head to head comparison of patients with amnestic MCI (aMCI) single domain (SD-aMCI) and multiple domain (MD-aMCI). We propose that FLI might be most reliable in differentiating SD-aMCI, which is considered to be an earlier stage of AD pathology spread out, from the controls.

Patients and Methods

A total of 114 patients, 13 with single domain (SD–aMCI) and 30 with multiple domains (MD–aMCI), 29 with mild AD and 42 controls underwent standard neurological and neuropsychological evaluations as well as tests of FLI, FER and FFI.

Results

Compared to the control group, AD subjects performed worse on FFI (p = 0.020), FER (p<0.001) and FLI (p<0.001), MD-aMCI group had significantly worse scores only on FLI (p = 0.002) and approached statistical significance on FER (0.053). SD-aMCI group performed significantly worse only on FLI (p = 0.028) compared to controls.

Conclusions

Patients with SD-aMCI had an isolated impairment restricted to FLI, while patients with MD–aMCI showed impairment in FLI as well as in FER. Patients with mild dementia due to AD have more extensive impairment of higher visual perception. The results suggest that FLI testing may contribute to identification of patients at risk of AD. We hypothesize that clinical examination of all three domains might reflect the spread of the disease from transentorhinal cortex, over amygdala to fusiform gyrus.     

Short-Term Delayed Recall of Auditory Verbal Learning Test Is Equivalent to Long-Term Delayed Recall for Identifying Amnestic Mild Cognitive Impairment

Delayed recall of words in a verbal learning test is a sensitive measure for the diagnosis of amnestic mild cognitive impairment (aMCI) and early Alzheimer’s disease (AD). The relative validity of different retention intervals of delayed recall has not been well characterized. Using the Auditory Verbal Learning Test–Huashan version, we compared the differentiating value of short-term delayed recall (AVL-SR, that is, a 3- to 5-minute delay time) and long-term delayed recall (AVL-LR, that is, a 20-minute delay time) in distinguishing patients with aMCI (n = 897) and mild AD (n = 530) from the healthy elderly (n = 1215). In patients with aMCI, the correlation between AVL-SR and AVL-LR was very high (r = 0.94), and the difference between the two indicators was less than 0.5 points. There was no difference between AVL-SR and AVL-LR in the frequency of zero scores. In the receiver operating characteristic curves analysis, although the area under the curve (AUC) of AVL-SR and AVL-LR for diagnosing aMCI was significantly different, the cut-off scores of the two indicators were identical. In the subgroup of ages 80 to 89, the AUC of the two indicators showed no significant difference. Therefore, we concluded that AVL-SR could substitute for AVL-LR in identifying aMCI, especially for the oldest patients.     

White Matter Changes in Patients with Amnestic Mild Cognitive Impairment Detected by Diffusion Tensor Imaging

Compared to normal aging adults, individuals with amnestic mild cognitive impairment (aMCI) have significantly increased risk for progressing into Alzheimer’s disease (AD). Autopsy studies found that most of the brains of aMCI cases showed anatomical features associated with AD pathology. The recent development of non-invasive neuroimaging technique, such as diffusion tensor imaging (DTI), makes it possible to investigate the microstructures of the cerebral white matter in vivo. We hypothesized that disrupted white matter (WM) integrity existed in aMCI. So we used DTI technique, by measuring fractional anisotropy (FA) and mean diffusivity (MD), to test the brain structures involved in patients with aMCI. DTI scans were collected from 40 patients with aMCI, and 28 normal controls (NC). Tract-based spatial statistics (TBSS) analyses of whole-brain FA and MD images in each individual and group comparisons were carried out. Compared to NC, aMCI patients showed significant FA reduction bilaterally, in the association and projection fibers of frontal, parietal, and temporal lobes, corpus callosum, bilateral corona radiation, right posterior thalamic radiation and right sagittal stratum. aMCI patients also showed significantly increased MD widespreadly in the association and projection fibers of frontal, parietal and temporal lobes, and corpus callosum. Assessment of the WM integrity of the frontal, parietal, temporal lobes, and corpus callosum by using DTI measures may aid early diagnosis of aMCI.     

Gray and White Matter Changes in Subjective Cognitive Impairment,Amnestic Mild Cognitive Impairment and Alzheimer's Disease: A Voxel-Based Analysis Study

Subjective cognitive impairment may be a very early at-risk period of the continuum of dementia. However, it is difficult to discriminate at-risk states from normal aging. Thus, detection of the early pathological changes in the subjective cognitive impairment period is needed. To elucidate these changes, we employed diffusion tensor imaging and volumetry analysis, and compared subjective cognitive impairment with normal, mild cognitive impairment and Alzheimer''s disease. The subjects in this study were 39 Alzheimer''s disease, 43 mild cognitive impairment, 28 subjective cognitive impairment and 41 normal controls. There were no statistically significant differences between the normal control and subjective cognitive impairment groups in all measures. Alzheimer''s disease and mild cognitive impairment had the same extent of brain atrophy and diffusion changes. These results are consistent with the hypothetical model of the dynamic biomarkers of Alzheimer''s disease.     

Regional Expression of Key Cell Cycle Proteins in Brain from Subjects with Amnestic Mild Cognitive Impairment

Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) is regarded as a transition stage between the cognitive changes of normal aging and the more serious problems caused by Alzheimer’s disease (AD). Previous studies had demonstrated increased expression of cell cycle proteins in AD brain. In the present study, we have analyzed the expression of the cell cycle proteins, CDK2, CDK5 and cyclin G1 in hippocampus and inferior parietal lobule (IPL) in subjects with amnestic mild cognitive impairment and control using Western blot analysis. The expression of CDK2, CDK5 and cyclin G1 were found to be significantly increased in MCI hippocampus as well as in IPL compared to control brain. These results suggest that some cells may have re-entered the cell cycle. However, the expression of CDK2 and CDK5 is greater in MCI hippocampus compared to those of MCI IPL, and hippocampus is a region that is severely affected by AD pathology. Since these proteins are involved directly or indirectly in microtubule destabilization and hyperphosphorylation of tau, and also in APP processing we hypothesize that cell cycle disturbance may be important contributor in the pathogenesis of AD. Special issue dedicated to Dr. John P. Blass.     

Memory Concerns,Memory Performance and Risk of Dementia in Patients with Mild Cognitive Impairment

Background

Concerns about worsening memory (“memory concerns”; MC) and impairment in memory performance are both predictors of Alzheimer''s dementia (AD). The relationship of both in dementia prediction at the pre-dementia disease stage, however, is not well explored. Refined understanding of the contribution of both MC and memory performance in dementia prediction is crucial for defining at-risk populations. We examined the risk of incident AD by MC and memory performance in patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI).

Methods

We analyzed data of 417 MCI patients from a longitudinal multicenter observational study. Patients were classified based on presence (n = 305) vs. absence (n = 112) of MC. Risk of incident AD was estimated with Cox Proportional-Hazards regression models.

Results

Risk of incident AD was increased by MC (HR = 2.55, 95%CI: 1.33–4.89), lower memory performance (HR = 0.63, 95%CI: 0.56–0.71) and ApoE4-genotype (HR = 1.89, 95%CI: 1.18–3.02). An interaction effect between MC and memory performance was observed. The predictive power of MC was greatest for patients with very mild memory impairment and decreased with increasing memory impairment.

Conclusions

Our data suggest that the power of MC as a predictor of future dementia at the MCI stage varies with the patients'' level of cognitive impairment. While MC are predictive at early stage MCI, their predictive value at more advanced stages of MCI is reduced. This suggests that loss of insight related to AD may occur at the late stage of MCI.     

Protein Levels and Activity of Some Antioxidant Enzymes in Hippocampus of Subjects with Amnestic Mild Cognitive Impairment

Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) is generally referred to the transitional zone between normal cognitive aging and early dementia or clinically probable Alzheimer’s disease (AD). Most individuals with amnestic MCI eventually develop AD, which suggests that MCI may be the earliest phase of AD. Oxidative stress is observed in brain from subjects with both AD and MCI. Among others, two possibilities for elevated oxidataive stress are decreased activity or elevated expression of antioxidant enzymes, the latter as a response to the former. Accordingly, in the current study, the protein levels and activity of some antioxidant enzymes in the hippocampus of control and MCI brain were measured using Western blot analysis and spectrophotometric methods, respectively. Alterations in the levels and activity of a number of antioxidant enzymes in MCI brain compared to age-matched controls were found. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that oxidative stress may be an early event in the progression of amnestic MCI to AD. Special issue article in honor of Dr. Anna Maria Giuffrida-Stella.     

EEG and Cognitive Biomarkers Based Mild Cognitive Impairment Diagnosis

Objective

Recently, Electroencephalogram (EEG) shows potential in the diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease and other dementia. We aim to investigate whether EEG and selected cognitive biomarkers can classify mild cognitive impairment (MCI), dementia and healthy subjects using support vector machine classifier in Indian cohort.

Age-Correction of Test Scores Reduces the Validity of Mild Cognitive Impairment in Predicting Progression to Dementia

Objectives

A phase of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) precedes most forms of neurodegenerative dementia. Many definitions of MCI recommend the use of test norms to diagnose cognitive impairment. It is, however, unclear whether the use of norms actually improves the detection of individuals at risk of dementia. Therefore, the effects of age- and education-norms on the validity of test scores in predicting progression to dementia were investigated.

Methods

Baseline cognitive test scores (Syndrome Short Test) of dementia-free participants aged ≥65 were used to predict progression to dementia within three years. Participants were comprehensively examined one, two, and three years after baseline. Test scores were calculated with correction for (1) age and education, (2) education only, (3) age only and (4) without correction. Predictive validity was estimated with Cox proportional hazard regressions. Areas under the curve (AUCs) were calculated for the one-, two-, and three-year intervals.

Results

82 (15.3%) of initially 537 participants, developed dementia. Model coefficients, hazard ratios, and AUCs of all scores were significant (p<0.001). Predictive validity was the lowest with age-corrected scores (−2 log likelihood  = 840.90, model fit χ² (1)  = 144.27, HR  = 1.33, AUCs between 0.73 and 0.87) and the highest with education-corrected scores (−2 log likelihood  = 815.80, model fit χ² (1)  = 171.16, HR  = 1.34, AUCs between 0.85 and 0.88).

Conclusion

The predictive validity of test scores is markedly reduced by age-correction. Therefore, definitions of MCI should not recommend the use of age-norms in order to improve the detection of individuals at risk of dementia.     

Factors Predicting Reversion from Mild Cognitive Impairment to Normal Cognitive Functioning: A Population-Based Study

Introduction

Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) is associated with an increased risk of developing dementia. However, many individuals diagnosed with MCI are found to have reverted to normal cognition on follow-up. This study investigated factors predicting or associated with reversion from MCI to normal cognition.

Methods

Our analyses considered 223 participants (48.9% male) aged 71–89 years, drawn from the prospective, population-based Sydney Memory and Ageing Study. All were diagnosed with MCI at baseline and subsequently classified with either normal cognition or repeat diagnosis of MCI after two years (a further 11 participants who progressed from MCI to dementia were excluded). Associations with reversion were investigated for (1) baseline factors that included diagnostic features, personality, neuroimaging, sociodemographics, lifestyle, and physical and mental health; (2) longitudinal change in potentially modifiable factors.

Results

There were 66 reverters to normal cognition and 157 non-reverters (stable MCI). Regression analyses identified diagnostic features as most predictive of prognosis, with reversion less likely in participants with multiple-domain MCI (p = 0.011), a moderately or severely impaired cognitive domain (p = 0.002 and p = 0.006), or an informant-based memory complaint (p = 0.031). Reversion was also less likely for participants with arthritis (p = 0.037), but more likely for participants with higher complex mental activity (p = 0.003), greater openness to experience (p = 0.041), better vision (p = 0.014), better smelling ability (p = 0.040), or larger combined volume of the left hippocampus and left amygdala (p<0.040). Reversion was also associated with a larger drop in diastolic blood pressure between baseline and follow-up (p = 0.026).

Discussion

Numerous factors are associated with reversion from MCI to normal cognition. Assessing these factors could facilitate more accurate prognosis of individuals with MCI. Participation in cognitively enriching activities and efforts to lower blood pressure might promote reversion.     

Changes in Thalamic Connectivity in the Early and Late Stages of Amnestic Mild Cognitive Impairment: A Resting-State Functional Magnetic Resonance Study from ADNI

We used resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to investigate changes in the thalamus functional connectivity in early and late stages of amnestic mild cognitive impairment. Data of 25 late stages of amnestic mild cognitive impairment (LMCI) patients, 30 early stages of amnestic mild cognitive impairment (EMCI) patients and 30 well-matched healthy controls (HC) were analyzed from the Alzheimer’s disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI). We focused on the correlation between low frequency fMRI signal fluctuations in the thalamus and those in all other brain regions. Compared to healthy controls, we found functional connectivity between the left/right thalamus and a set of brain areas was decreased in LMCI and/or EMCI including right fusiform gyrus (FG), left and right superior temporal gyrus, left medial frontal gyrus extending into supplementary motor area, right insula, left middle temporal gyrus (MTG) extending into middle occipital gyrus (MOG). We also observed increased functional connectivity between the left/right thalamus and several regions in LMCI and/or EMCI including left FG, right MOG, left and right precuneus, right MTG and left inferior temporal gyrus. In the direct comparison between the LMCI and EMCI groups, we obtained several brain regions showed thalamus-seeded functional connectivity differences such as the precentral gyrus, hippocampus, FG and MTG. Briefly, these brain regions mentioned above were mainly located in the thalamo-related networks including thalamo-hippocampus, thalamo-temporal, thalamo-visual, and thalamo-default mode network. The decreased functional connectivity of the thalamus might suggest reduced functional integrity of thalamo-related networks and increased functional connectivity indicated that aMCI patients could use additional brain resources to compensate for the loss of cognitive function. Our study provided a new sight to understand the two important states of aMCI and revealed resting-state fMRI is an appropriate method for exploring pathophysiological changes in aMCI.     

Regional Amyloid Deposition in Amnestic Mild Cognitive Impairment and Alzheimer's Disease Evaluated by [18F]AV-45 Positron Emission Tomography in Chinese Population

Background

To compare the neocortical amyloid loads among cognitively normal (CN), amnestic mild cognitive impairment (aMCI), and Alzheimer''s disease (AD) subjects with [¹⁸F]AV-45 positron emission tomography (PET).

Materials and Methods

[¹⁸F]AV-45 PET was performed in 11 CN, 13 aMCI, and 12 AD subjects to compare the cerebral cortex-to-whole cerebellum standard uptake value ratios (SUVRs) of global and individual volumes of interest (VOIs) cerebral cortex. The correlation between global cortical [¹⁸F]AV-45 SUVRs and Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) scores was analyzed.

Results

The global cortical [¹⁸F]AV-45 SUVRs were significantly different among the CN (1.08±0.08), aMCI (1.27±0.06), and AD groups (1.34±0.13) (p = 0.0003) with amyloidosis positivity rates of 9%, 62%, and 92% in the three groups respectively. Compared to CN subjects, AD subjects had higher SUVRs in the global cortical, precuneus, frontal, parietal, occipital, temporal, and posterior cingulate areas; while aMCI subjects had higher values in the global cortical, precuneus, frontal, occipital and posterior cingulate areas. There were negative correlations of MMSE scores with SUVRs in the global cortical, precuneus, frontal, parietal, occipital, temporal, posterior cingulate and anterior cingulate areas on a combined subject pool of the three groups after age and education attainment adjustment.

Conclusions

Amyloid deposition occurs relatively early in precuneus, frontal and posterior cingulate in aMCI subjects. Higher [¹⁸F]AV-45 accumulation is present in parietal, occipital and temporal gyri in AD subjects compared to the aMCI group. Significant correlation between MMSE scores and [¹⁸F]AV-45 SUVRs can be observed among CN, aMCI and AD subjects.     

血浆同型半胱氨酸水平与轻度认知功能障碍的相关性分析

目的:探讨轻度认知功能障碍(MCI)与血浆同型半胱氨酸(Hcy)水平的关系。方法:测定96例MCI及85例健康体检者得血浆Hcy、叶酸及维生素B12水平;MCI患者中选择高Hcy血症者62例,按照是否接受叶酸、维生素B12治疗随机分为治疗组和非治疗组,观察治疗前后Hcy水平及MMSE评分变化。结果:MCI组血浆Hcy水平显著高于对照组(P<0.05),叶酸、维生素B12及MMSE评分低于对照组(P<0.05);MCI组中Hcy水平与叶酸、维生素B12及MMSE评分均呈负相关(P<0.05);治疗后治疗组Hcy水平较治疗前显著下降(P<0.05);治疗组Hcy低于非治疗组(P<0.05);治疗组MMSE评分较治疗前升高,但无显著性差异(P>0.05),治疗组MMSE评分与非治疗组相比差异无统计学意义(P>0.05)。结论:血浆Hcy升高是MCI的重要因素,补充叶酸、维生素B12可降低血浆Hcy水平。     

Application and Revision of Montreal Cognitive Assessment in China's Military Retirees with Mild Cognitive Impairment

ObjectiveIn an effort to accommodate MOCA to better fit for the Chinese context, this study was designed to employ the MOCA criteria to screen mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and analyze associated risk factors in military retirees.MethodsThree hundred and four retired military cadres were recruited using a random cluster sampling technique with information collected including personal, prevalence, MOCA scale, and related neuropsychiatry scale. Thirty retirees were randomly chosen to be further analyzed one month later using the revised MOCA scale.Results①Our data indicated an incidence rate of 64.8% for mild cognitive impairment in retired military cadres. The incidence rate for MCI was significantly higher in those aged 80 or above compared with those 80 years of age or younger (P<0.05). The incidence rate of MCI was significantly higher in those with fewer than 6 years of education compared with those with over 7 years of education (P<0.05). The MCI incidence was higher for those with little exercise than those taking regular exercise (P<0.01). Moreover, the MCI incidence was higher in stroke patients than those who never had a stroke episode (P<0.05). ②There was a significant correlation between MOCA and MMSE scale scores (r = 0.81). MOCA scale scores were negatively correlated with ADL and CES-D scores (although not PSQI scores). ③ MOCA recension Cronbach’s alpha value was 0.862. The related coefficient of MOCA and MOCA recension was 0.878(P<0.01). When the Score of cut-off -point of the MOCA recension was 28, the area in ROC curve analyses was 0.859, as well as the largest area.ConclusionRetired cadres exhibited a greater incidence of MCI (than general population), which was closely associated with age, level of education and physical exercise and cerebral apoplexy. Revised MOCA scale displays a better validity and reaction degree of reliability and is more suitable for screening and diagnosis of MCI in the elderly in China.     

A Clinical Index to Predict Progression from Mild Cognitive Impairment to Dementia Due to Alzheimer's Disease

Background

Mild cognitive impairment is often a precursor to dementia due to Alzheimer''s disease, but many patients with mild cognitive impairment never develop dementia. New diagnostic criteria may lead to more patients receiving a diagnosis of mild cognitive impairment.

Objective

To develop a prediction index for the 3-year risk of progression from mild cognitive impairment to dementia relying only on information that can be readily obtained in most clinical settings.

Design and Participants

382 participants diagnosed with amnestic mild cognitive impairment enrolled in the Alzheimer''s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI), a multi-site, longitudinal, observational study.

Main Predictors Measures

Demographics, comorbid conditions, caregiver report of participant symptoms and function, and participant performance on individual items from basic neuropsychological scales.

Main Outcome Measure

Progression to probable Alzheimer''s disease.

Key Results

Subjects had a mean (SD) age of 75 (7) years and 43% progressed to probable Alzheimer''s disease within 3 years. Important independent predictors of progression included being female, resisting help, becoming upset when separated from caregiver, difficulty shopping alone, forgetting appointments, number of words recalled from a 10-word list, orientation and difficulty drawing a clock. The final point score could range from 0 to 16 (mean [SD]: 4.2 [2.9]). The optimism-corrected Harrell''s c-statistic was 0.71(95% CI: 0.68–0.75). Fourteen percent of subjects with low risk scores (0–2 points, n = 124) converted to probable Alzheimer''s disease over 3 years, compared to 51% of those with moderate risk scores (3–8 points, n = 223) and 91% of those with high risk scores (9–16 points, n = 35).

Conclusions

An index using factors that can be obtained in most clinical settings can predict progression from amnestic mild cognitive impairment to probable Alzheimer''s disease and may help clinicians differentiate between mild cognitive impairment patients at low vs. high risk of progression.