种群生存力分析:准确性和保护应用

目前已提出了五类估计濒危物种绝灭风险的种群生存力分析模型 ,即 :分析模型、单种群确定性模型、单种群随机模型、异质种群模型和显空间模型。模型的选择取决于物种的生活史特征和可用的数据。与用于保护实践的其他方法相比 ,种群生存力分析 (PVA)是相对准确的量化工具。然而 ,一些濒危物种种群统计学数据质量差和种群动态的有关假说模糊不清可能影响到模型预测的准确性 ,因此 ,要谨慎地使用PVA。在西方国家 ,PVA在濒危物种保护计划和管理中应用越来越广泛。它主要用于 :( 1)预测濒危物种未来的种群大小 ;( 2 )估计一定时间内物种的绝灭风险 ;( 3 )评估一套保护措施 ,确定哪个能使种群的存活时间最长 ;( 4)探索不同假说对小种群动态的影响 ;( 5 )指导濒危动物野外数据的搜集工作。我国的濒危物种很多 ,然而开展PVA研究的濒危物种却很少。应大力发展适合于模拟我国特有濒危物种及其保护问题的PVA模型     

舟山岛自然栖息地的变化及其对兽类物种绝灭影响的初步研究

舟山岛自然栖息地和物种受到人类活动的强烈干扰．占总面积５６．３％的自然栖息地已经消失,自然栖息地已破碎成许多碎片,碎片面积不断变小,碎片数量在增加．自然栖息地的质量发生了很大变化．自然栖息地的易破碎带与其地理特征有关,破碎易发生于被开垦和开发的地带．由于自然栖息地面积损失、破碎、质量下降和过度捕杀,已有５种兽绝灭,３种兽正走向绝灭,绝灭速度高于临近大陆．人口增长是舟山岛自然栖息地损失、破碎、质量下降和物种绝灭的根本原因．本文还讨论了保护自然栖息地和物种多样性的一些措施和原则．     

圈养繁殖在大熊猫保护生物学中的作用

栖息地的日益恶化、片段化和种群孤岛化已成为保护大熊猫的严重障碍。尽管就地保护濒危物种是最有希望的措施,但对于大熊猫而言,研究表明圈养繁殖也是保护这一极危物和中的有效手段之一,对保护遗传多样性起以了重要作用,是延缓绝灭速率的保证。本文阐述了大圈养繁殖的必要性及其在保护生物学中的作用。     

栖息地片断化对动物种群间基因流的影响及其测定方法

栖息地片断化指在人为活动和自然干扰下,大面积连续分布的自然栖息地被其它非适宜栖息地分隔成许多面积较小的斑块(岛屿)的过程。栖息地片断化是导致生物多样性丧失和物种绝灭的主要因素,也是威胁自然界生物生存的重要因素之一。栖息地片断化将影响基因在种群间和种群内的运动(基因流),开展栖息地片断化研究对保持物种间遗传多样性具有重要意义。本文介绍了片断化程度和基因流的测定方法。回顾了国内外的研究现状,并探讨了片断化对种群间基因流的影响和对濒危物种保护的意义。     

20世纪世界猫科动物濒危状况及其保护策略

本文介绍了20世纪世界主要猫科动物的生存现状:由于盗猎和栖息地的丧失,除家猫外,36种野生猫科动物都为受威胁或濒危物种;探讨了对于濒危猫科动物的保护方法及其作用,具体提出了保护野生的动物种群、栖息地,建立救护和繁殖种群,减少和消除不利因素,加强管理,严惩偷猎等措施。     

生境破碎化对动物种群存活的影响

生境破碎是生物多样性下降的主要原因之一。通常以岛屿生物地理学、异质种群生物学和景观生态学的理论来解释不同空间尺度中生境破碎化的生态学效应。生境破碎化引起面积效应、隔离效应和边缘效应。这些效应通过影响动物种群的绝灭阈值、分布和多度、种间关系以及生态系统过程,最终影响动物种群的存活。野外研究表明,破碎化对动物的影响,因物种、生境类型和地理区域不同而有所变化,因此,预测物种在破碎生境中的存活比较困难。研究热点集中于：确定生境面积损失和生境斑块的空间格局对破碎景观中物种绝灭的相对影响,破碎景观中物种的适宜生境比例和绝灭阈值,异质种群动态以及生态系统的生态过程。随着3S技术的发展,生境破碎化模型趋于复杂,而发展有效的模型和验证模型将成为一项富有挑战性的任务。     

种群统计随机性和环境随机性对种群绝灭的影响

影响种群绝灭的随机干扰可分为种群统计随机性、环境随机性和随机灾害三大类。在相对稳定的环境条件下和相对较短的时间内,以前两类随机干扰对种群绝灭的影响为生态学家关注的焦点。但是,由于自然种群动态及其影响因子的复杂特征,进一步深入研究随机干扰对种群绝灭的作用在理论上和实践上都必须发展新的技术手段。本文回顾了种群统计随机性与环境随机性的概念起源与发展,系统阐述了其分析方法。归纳了两类随机性在种群绝灭研究中的应用范围、作用方式和特点的异同和区别方法。各类随机作用与种群动态之间关系的理论研究与对种群绝灭机理的实践研究紧密相关。根据理论模型模拟和自然种群实际分析两方面的研究现状,作者提出了进一步深入研究随机作用与种群非线性动态方法的策略。指出了随机干扰影响种群绝灭过程的研究的方向：更多的研究将从单纯的定性分析随机干扰对种群动力学简单性质的作用,转向结合特定的种群非线性动态特征和各类随机力作用特点具体分析绝灭极端动态的成因,以期做出精确的预测。     

穿山甲种群概况及保护

穿山甲（Manis spp．）是我国Ⅱ级重点保护野生动物,也是国际自然与自然保护联盟（IUCN）濒危物种红色名录中定为濒危（EN）等级的物种。由于近20年来的乱捕滥猎和栖息地的丧失,该物种的野外种群数量急剧下降,直至枯竭的边缘。通过分析我国穿山甲野外种群现状和保护中存在的问题,探讨该物种的保护策略,为相关国际公约和我国野生动物主管部门对该物种保护等级的调整提供依据,以期为科学制定我国野生穿山甲保护行动计划提供参考和保护决策依据。     

一个孑遗类群-尖舌苣苔族(Klugieae)物种的居群绝灭速率及其指示意义

本文通过对尖舌苣苔族(Klugieae)的5个属中12个种59个地方居群消长动态的统计分析,计算了该族各属物种的居群绝灭速率。在120年的时间区间内,尖舌苣苔族物种的居群绝灭速率和生境受破坏程度呈正相关。显然,一个类群物种的居群绝灭速率对于该类群分布地区环境的受破坏程度具有较强的指示意义。尖舌苣苔族各属物种的居群绝灭速率与其系统发育年龄和进化程度密切相关。进化水平较低,即系统发育上比较原始的类群,其居群绝灭速率往往较高;进化水平较高,即系统发育上比较年青的类群,其居群绝灭速率则低。地区性特有类群,尤其是特有属更容易遭受绝灭的危险。藉此,可在短时期内比较准确地了解该类群的濒危过程。     

黄渤海濒危水鸟栖息地动态变化研究

中国滨海湿地是东亚-澳大利西亚迁徙路线上候鸟重要的停歇地、繁殖地和越冬地,土地利用变化所引发的滨海湿地退化导致水鸟栖息地类别和面积发生了很大转变,影响迁徙水鸟种群数量的稳定性。然而,土地利用变化在哪些区域和多大程度上影响了迁徙水鸟的栖息地分布尚不清晰。以土地围垦典型区域黄渤海滨海湿地为研究区,以受胁濒危水鸟物种勺嘴鹬、大滨鹬、大杓鹬、小青脚鹬、黑脸琵鹭、黄嘴白鹭、遗鸥、黑嘴鸥为研究对象,结合物种分布模型MaxEnt和GIS空间分析,模拟2000、2015、2020年水鸟栖息地时空分布,探索过去20年栖息地分布的时空变化,分析水鸟种群变化趋势,识别水鸟栖息地保护优先区域,提出水鸟栖息地保护管理建议。结果显示：2000—2020年,8个水鸟物种栖息地主要分布在渤海湾、莱州湾、江苏盐城沿岸、如东-东台沿岸区域。所有物种的栖息地面积均呈不同程度的下降趋势,其中7个物种栖息地下降比例超过50%,下降的区域主要分布在渤海湾、江苏盐城沿岸、东台条子泥、小洋口沿岸,滨海湿地丧失是导致水鸟栖息地面积下降的直接因素。7个物种种群数量呈下降趋势。研究所确定的水鸟保护优先区面积达240.32 km^2...     

Drivers of extinction: the case of Azorean beetles

Oceanic islands host a disproportionately high fraction of endangered or recently extinct endemic species. We report on species extinctions among endemic Azorean beetles following 97% habitat loss since AD 1440. We infer extinctions from historical and contemporary records and examine the influence of three predictors: geographical range, habitat specialization and body size. Of 55 endemic beetle species investigated (out of 63), seven can be considered extinct. Single-island endemics (SIEs) were more prone to extinction than multi-island endemics. Within SIEs restricted to native habitat, larger species were more extinction-prone. We thus show a hierarchical path to extinction in Azorean beetles: species with small geographical range face extinction first, with the larger bodied ones being the most threatened. Our study provides a clear warning of the impact of habitat loss on island endemic biotas.     

Relationships between geographical range size, body size, local abundance, and habitat breadth in North American suckers and sunfishes

Aim I examine the relationship between geographical range size and three variables (body size, an index of habitat breadth, and an index of local abundance) within a phylogenetic framework in North American species of suckers and sunfishes. Location North America Methods Regressions after independent contrasts of geographical range size, body size, habitat breadth, and local abundance. Results Species with large range sizes tend to be larger-bodied, be more locally abundant, and have higher habitat breadths. Character reconstructions support the prediction that variables associated with rarity (small geographical range size, low local abundance, low niche breadth, and large body size) evolve in unison, although large body size was associated with the opposite traits in these taxa. Gaston & Blackburn (1996a) suggested using visual identification of the lower boundary of the geographical range-body size relationship to identify extinction-prone species; this resulted in thirteen species that are potentially extinction-prone. Main conclusions Similar evolutionary mechanisms appear to operate on body size and other variables related to rarity, even in distantly related taxa.     

Macroecology and extinction risk correlates of frogs

Aim  Our aim was to test whether extinction risk of frog species could be predicted from their body size, fecundity or geographical range size. Because small geographical range size is a correlate of extinction risk in many taxa, we also tested hypotheses about correlates of range size in frogs.
Location  Global.
Methods  Using a large comparative data set ( n  = 527 species) compiled from the literature, we performed bivariate and multiple regressions through the origin of independent contrasts to test proposed macroecological patterns and correlates of extinction risk in frogs. We also created minimum adequate models to predict snout–vent length, clutch size, geographical range size and IUCN Red List status in frogs. Parallel non-phylogenetic analyses were also conducted. We verified the results of the phylogenetic analyses using gridded data accounting for spatial autocorrelation.
Results  The most threatened frog species tend to have small geographical ranges, although the relationship between range and extinction risk is not linear. In addition, tropical frogs with small clutches have the smallest ranges. Clutch size was strongly positively correlated with geographical range size ( r ² = 0.22) and body size ( r ² = 0.28).
Main conclusions  Our results suggest that body size and fecundity only affect extinction risk indirectly through their effect on geographical range size. Thus, although large frogs with small clutches tend to be endangered, there is no comparative evidence that this relationship is direct. If correct, this inference has consequences for conservation strategy: it would be inefficient to allocate conservation resources on the basis of low fecundity or large body size; instead it would be better to protect areas that contain many frog species with small geographical ranges.     

Assessing Extinction Risk in Small Metapopulations of Golden‐headed Lion Tamarins (Leontopithecus chrysomelas) in Bahia State,Brazil

Golden‐headed lion tamarins (GHLTs; Leontopithecus chrysomelas) are endangered primates endemic to the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, where loss of forest and its connectivity threaten species survival. Understanding the role of habitat availability and configuration on population declines is critical for guiding proactive conservation for this, and other, endangered species. We conducted population viability analysis to assess vulnerability of ten GHLT metapopulations to habitat loss and small population size. Seven metapopulations had a low risk of extirpation (or local extinction) over the next 100 years assuming no further forest loss, and even small populations could persist with immediate protection. Three metapopulations had a moderate/high risk of extirpation, suggesting extinction debt may be evident in parts of the species’ range. When deforestation was assumed to continue at current rates, extirpation risk significantly increased while abundance and genetic diversity decreased for all metapopulations. Extirpation risk was significantly negatively correlated with the size of the largest patch available to metapopulations, underscoring the importance of large habitat patches for species persistence. Finally, we conducted sensitivity analysis using logistic regression, and our results showed that local extinction risk was sensitive to percentage of females breeding, adult female mortality, and dispersal rate and survival; conservation or research programs that target these aspects of the species’ biology/ecology could have a disproportionately important impact on species survival. We stress that efforts to protect populations and tracts of habitat of sufficient size throughout the species’ distribution will be important in the near‐term to protect the species from continuing decline and extinction.     

The cost of being valuable: predictors of extinction risk in marine invertebrates exploited as luxury seafood

Extinction risk has been linked to biological and anthropogenic variables. Prediction of extinction risk in valuable fauna may not follow mainstream drivers when species are exploited for international markets. We use results from an International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List assessment of extinction risk in all 377 known species of sea cucumber within the order Aspidochirotida, many of which are exploited worldwide as luxury seafood for Asian markets. Extinction risk was primarily driven by high market value, compounded by accessibility and familiarity (well known) in the marketplace. Extinction risk in marine animals often relates closely to body size and small geographical range but our study shows a clear exception. Conservation must not lose sight of common species, especially those of high value. Greater human population density and poorer economies in the geographical ranges of endangered species illustrate that anthropogenic variables can also predict extinction risks in marine animals. Local-level regulatory measures must prevent opportunistic exploitation of high-value species. Trade agreements, for example CITES, may aid conservation but will depend on international technical support to low-income tropical countries. The high proportion of data deficient species also stresses a need for research on the ecology and population demographics of unglamorous invertebrates.     

Genetic diversity and gene flow in a rare New Zealand skink despite fragmented habitat in a volcanic landscape

Anthropogenic habitat fragmentation often restricts gene flow and results in small populations that are at risk of inbreeding. However, some endangered species naturally occupy patchy habitat where local population extinction and recolonization are normal. We investigated population fragmentation in the range‐restricted New Zealand small‐scaled skink (Oligosoma microlepis), documenting changes in habitat occupancy and analyzing mitochondrial, microsatellite, and morphological variation sampled across the geographical range of the species (approximately 100 km²). Small‐scaled skinks have a strong preference for rocky outcrops that exist in a mosaic of other habitat types. A metapopulation structure was indicated by both local extinction and colonization of new sites. We found relatively high mtDNA nucleotide site diversity within this narrow range (π = 0.004; 16S), evidence of inter‐patch gene flow, and no statistical support for inbreeding. Gene flow was limited by geographical distance, although the existence of pasture between habitat patches apparently has not prevented skink dispersal. Generalized linear models indicated an association between body size and location suggesting a local environmental influence on phenotype. Prior to human‐induced habitat modification, native forest probably separated preferred sites and, less than 2000 years ago, volcanic activity devastated much of the area currently occupied by O. microlepis. This skink appears able to re‐establish populations if other human‐linked factors such as agricultural intensification and introduced predators are limited. Although in contrast to expectations for a scarce and localized species living in a highly modified landscape, this lizard may have previously adapted to a dynamic, mosaic environment mediated by volcanism.     

Long-term survival despite low genetic diversity in the critically endangered Madagascar fish-eagle

The critically endangered Madagascar fish-eagle ( Haliaeetus vociferoides ) is considered to be one of the rarest birds of prey globally and at significant risk of extinction. In the most recent census, only 222 adult individuals were recorded with an estimated total breeding population of no more than 100–120 pairs. Here, levels of Madagascar fish-eagle population genetic diversity based on 47 microsatellite loci were compared with its sister species, the African fish-eagle ( Haliaeetus vocifer ), and 16 of these loci were also characterized in the white-tailed eagle ( Haliaeetus albicilla ) and the bald eagle ( Haliaeetus leucocephalus ). Overall, extremely low genetic diversity was observed in the Madagascar fish-eagle compared to other surveyed Haliaeetus species. Determining whether this low diversity is the result of a recent bottleneck or a more historic event has important implications for their conservation. Using a Bayesian coalescent-based method, we show that Madagascar fish-eagles have maintained a small effective population size for hundreds to thousands of years and that its low level of neutral genetic diversity is not the result of a recent bottleneck. Therefore, efforts made to prevent Madagascar fish-eagle extinction should place high priority on maintenance of habitat requirements and reducing direct and indirect human persecution. Given the current rate of deforestation in Madagascar, we further recommend that the population be expanded to occupy a larger geographical distribution. This will help the population persist when exposed to stochastic factors (e.g. climate and disease) that may threaten a species consisting of only 200 adult individuals while inhabiting a rapidly changing landscape.     

Doomed to die? Predicting extinction risk in the true hawks Accipitridae

One of the most important tasks in conservation biology is identifying species at risk from extinction and establishing the most likely factors influencing this risk. Here, we consider an ecologically well-defined, monophyletic group of organisms, the true hawks of the family Accipitridae, which are not only among the most studied, but also contain some of the rarest bird species in the world. We investigate which intrinsic and extrinsic factors, covering morphology, life history and ecology, covary with International Union for the Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources threat status, as well as global population size and geographic range size. By decomposing threat status into population size and range size, we test whether any factors are generally important: we found that species with less habitat specialization, a larger clutch size and more plumage polymorphism were associated with lower extinction risk and larger population and range sizes. Species with special habitat requirements might be less capable of dealing with habitat transformation and fragmentation, while species with small clutch sizes might not be able to reverse population declines. Plumage polymorphism might indicate the size of the species' gene pool and could be a good marker of extinction risk. The analyses also emphasized that no single factor is likely to be sufficient when predicting the threat of extinction.