一类具有潜伏期的传染病模型的稳定性研究

研究了一类潜伏期和感染期均有传染力的SEIQR模型,借助于轨道稳定性,Jacobian矩阵等方法,得到了疾病消亡的阈值——基本再生数R_0,通过构造Lyapunov函数,证明了无病平衡点及地方病平衡点的存在性及全局稳定性.     

具垂直传染和连续预防接种的SIRS传染病模型的研究

研究了具有垂直传染的两类连续预防接种传染病模型,分别给出了SIRS传染病模型基本再生数并利用广义Dulac函数方法和LaSalle不变原理证明了无病平衡点和正平衡点的全局稳定性.最后对两种结果进行了比较.     

具有时变接触率与接种率的脉冲传染病模型研究

讨论了时变接触率和时变接种率的传染病模型,模型中考虑对易感者和染病者同时接种.通过计算得到了判别疾病流行与否的阈值.证明了当基本再生数小于1时,疾病是流行的;当基本再生数大于1时,疾病将成为地方病.     

具有潜伏和隔离的传染病模型的全局稳定性

研究了一类具有隔离仓室和潜伏仓室的非线性高维自治微分系统SEQIJR传染病模型,得到疾病绝灭与否的阀值一基本再生数R0．证明了当R0≤1时,模型仅存在无病平衡点,且无病平衡点是全局渐近稳定的,疾病最终绝灭;当R0〉1时,模型存在两个平衡点,无病平衡点不稳定,地方病平衡点全局渐近稳定,疾病将持续．隔离措施影响着基本再生数,进而推得结论：适当地增大隔离强度,将有益于有效地控制疾病的蔓延．这就从理论上揭示了隔离对疾病控制的积极作用．     

一类与环境因素有关的具有预防接种和双线性疾病发生率的传染病动力学模型研究

本文研究一类与环境有关的SVIBR的传染病模型,得到了基本再生数0R证明了当0R1时无病平衡点全局渐近稳定。     

一类具有常数迁入且总入口在变化的SIRI传染病模型的稳定性

讨论一类具有常数迁入率,染病类有病死且有效接触率依赖于总人数的SIRI传染病模型.给出了基本再生数σ的表达式.如果σ≤1,则疾病消除平衡点是全局稳定的;如果σ＞1,则存在唯一的传染病平衡点且是局部渐近稳定的.对具有双线性传染率和标准传染率的相应模型,进一步证明了当σ＞1时传染病平衡点的全局稳定性.     

具有脉冲出生和脉冲接种的SIR传染病模型

考虑了脉冲出生、脉冲接种、垂直传染、因病死亡等因素,建立了脉冲出生和脉冲接种同时进行的SIR传染病模型,通过分析无病周期解的存在性以及稳定性,得出疾病灭绝的条件.     

一类带有接种和年龄结构的SVIR传染病模型

数学地分析了一类带有接种和年龄结构的SVIR传染病模型的动力学性质,得到了接种疫苗策略φ和年龄a有关的基本再生数R(φ,a)的表达式,证明了当R(0,a)1时,系统中无病平衡态是全局渐近稳定的;当R(φ,a)1时,无病平衡态是不稳定的,此时系统至少存在一地方病平衡态.     

北京市手足口病的流行趋势预测

根据手足口病具有潜伏期的特征,提出了手足口病的SEIR模型框图,并据此建立微分方程模型.通过北京市近年来手足口病疫情周报数据,对参数进行估计并计算基本再生数,预测北京市2014年手足口病的流行趋势,对北京市手足口病的预防控制提供参考.     

带有潜伏期的疾病在捕食系统中的传播（英文）

利用了传染病的SEI模型和捕食-被捕食模型研究了疾病的传染过程.疾病可以在被捕食者之间传染并且也可以在又被捕食者传染给捕食者,但是不会在捕食者之间传染.进一步,我们考虑了疾病在被捕食者之间具有潜伏期.利用布鲁氏菌病作为主要对象,文章建立了非线性微分方程组,并利用定性理论与基本再生数的相关结论证明了所有非负平衡点的稳定条件,并通过数值解讨论了一些生物现象.最后讨论了疾病的传染率和捕食率对系统稳定性的影响以及其他参数对系统可能存在的影响.     

Modeling relapse in infectious diseases

An integro-differential equation is proposed to model a general relapse phenomenon in infectious diseases including herpes. The basic reproduction number R(0) for the model is identified and the threshold property of R(0) established. For the case of a constant relapse period (giving a delay differential equation), this is achieved by conducting a linear stability analysis of the model, and employing the Lyapunov-Razumikhin technique and monotone dynamical systems theory for global results. Numerical simulations, with parameters relevant for herpes, are presented to complement the theoretical results, and no evidence of sustained oscillatory solutions is found.     

Controlling emerging infectious diseases like SARS

To control emerging infectious diseases like SARS, it is necessary to resort to basic control measures that limit exposures to infectious individuals. These measures include isolating cases at diagnosis, quarantining household members and tracing contacts of diagnosed cases, providing the community with advice on how to reduce exposures, and closing schools. To justify such intervention it is important to understand how well each of these measures helps to limit transmission. In this paper, we determine the effect of a number of different interventions on the effective reproduction number and estimate requirements to achieve elimination of the infectious disease. We find that the strategy of tracing and quarantining contacts of diagnosed cases can be very successful in reducing transmission.     

Estimation of effective reproduction numbers for infectious diseases using serological survey data

The effective reproduction number of an infection, denoted Re, may be used to monitor the impact of a vaccination programme. If Re is maintained below 1, then sustained endemic transmission of the infection cannot occur. In this paper we discuss methods for estimating Re from serological survey data, allowing for age and individual heterogeneity. We describe semi-parametric and parametric models, and obtain an upper bound on Re when vaccine coverage and efficacy are not known. The methods are illustrated using data on mumps and rubella in England and Wales.     

Threshold dynamics in a time-delayed epidemic model with dispersal

The global dynamics of a time-delayed model with population dispersal between two patches is investigated. For a general class of birth functions, persistence theory is applied to prove that a disease is persistent when the basic reproduction number is greater than one. It is also shown that the disease will die out if the basic reproduction number is less than one, provided that the initial size of the infected population is relatively small. Numerical simulations are presented using some typical birth functions from biological literature to illustrate the main ideas and the relevance of dispersal.     

An SEIS epidemic model with transport-related infection

In this paper, an SEIS epidemic model is proposed to study the effect of transport-related infection on the spread and control of infectious disease. New result implies that traveling of the exposed (means exposed but not yet infectious) individuals can bring disease from one region to other regions even if the infectious individuals are inhibited from traveling among regions. It is shown that transportation among regions will change the disease dynamics and break infection out even if infectious diseases will go to extinction in each isolated region without transport-related infection. In addition, our analysis shows that transport-related infection intensifies the disease spread if infectious diseases break out to cause an endemic situation in each region, in the sense of that both the absolute and relative size of patients increase. This suggests that it is very essential to strengthen restrictions of passengers once we know infectious diseases appeared.     

核酸适配体在感染性疾病诊治中的研究进展

临床上,感染性疾病由于诊断不明或诊断时间较长导致严重后果的情况并不罕见。近年来,由于新型病原体感染报道层出不穷,现有病原体出现耐药也十分普遍,导致感染性疾病的诊断和治疗仍是临床上亟待解决的难题。核酸适配体是通过体外反复筛选或指数富集配体系统进化(systematic evolution of ligands by exponential enrichment,SELEX)技术筛选出来的一类具有特异性识别能力的寡核苷酸序列,具有靶向结合目标分子的能力,可用于病原体检测和新型治疗性药物的开发。适配体已在感染性疾病诊治中显现良好的应用前景,进一步推进相关研究有望为感染性疾病的诊治提供新的途径。     

Impulsive SUI epidemic model for HIV/AIDS with chronological age and infection age

This paper develops an impulsive SUI model of human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome(HIV/AIDS) epidemic for the first time to study the dynamic behavior of this model. The SUI model is described by impulsive partial differential equations. First, the well-posedness of the model is attained by the method of characteristic lines and iterative method. Secondly, the basic reproduction number R₀(q,T) of the epidemic which depends on the impulsive HIV-finding period T and the HIV-finding proportion q is obtained by mathematical analysis. Our result shows that HIV/AIDS epidemic can be theoretically eradicated if we can have the suitable HIV-finding proportion q and the impulsive HIV-finding period T such that R₀(q,T)<1. We also conjecture that the infection-free periodic solution of the SUI model is unstable when R₀(q,T)>1.     

人类传染病亦危害动物健康

随着畜牧业发展、宠物市场增长、气候变化、生态系统破坏以及旅行和商业全球化,人与动物之间的关系在全球范围内持续加强。人类与动物之间的联系不断升级,使得病原体的威胁也不断扩散。关于人兽共患疾病的研究多集中在由动物传染给人类的疾病,如疯牛病、艾滋病、禽流感等。但是微生物的交换是相互的,近年来越来越多的研究表明人类亦会将病原体传播给动物,包括新型冠状病毒、耐甲氧西林金黄色葡萄球菌、甲型流感病毒、隐孢子虫和蛔虫等。因此本文对人类疾病传染给动物的研究作一综述,为人与动物传染病的有效预防与控制提供参考。