The age‐cause proxy relationship in infant mortality

Abstract

Data presented in this brief note show that one of the consequences of recent gains in the control of neonatal mortality has been an increase in the frequency of endogenous causes of death in the postneonatal period. This in turn has greatly diminished the validity of using the postneonatal death rate as a proxy for the level of exogenous mortality in infancy. Moreover, although there continues to be a very strong correlation between neonatal and endogenous mortality, the increasing dominance of the latter causes throughout infancy also weakens the value of the age‐cause proxy relationship during the first month of life.     

Sudden infant death syndrome and the age‐cause proxy relationship in infancy

Abstract

Evidence from a longitudinal study of the relationship between socioeconomic status and infant mortality in metropolitan Ohio is presented in an effort to throw additional light on the continuing debate over the validity of the age‐cause proxy relationship in infancy. The results indicate that while there is a fairly strong and consistent association between neonatal mortality and endogenous causes of death that is little affected by the classification of Sudden Infant Death Syndrome, the nature of the association between postneonatal mortality and exogenous causes of death varies from weak to moderate depending upon where this cause is included. Additional evidence pertaining to the role of SIDS in contributing to the long‐standing inverse association between infant mortality and socioeconomic status is presented, thus further emphasizing the need for continued research to clarify the etiologic mechanisms of this poorly understood condition.     

Heredity of joint diseases

Abstract

This research examines the infant mortality/socioeconomic status relationship in Toledo, Ohio, for the years centering around 19S0, 1960, and 1970 in order to depict variables that contributed most to infant mortality for each time period. Zero‐order correlation coefficients demonstrated that the relationship has widened mainly as a result of an increasing inverse neonatal/socioeconomic pattern which was due in part to a “cause‐period cross‐over effect” (exogenous causes of death were contributing to deaths in the neonatal period in 1970). Further examination suggested that the status variables through which the differentials were operating have shifted from one time period to another. In 1950, crowded housing conditions and unemployment were primarily responsible; in 1960, it was housing and income; and in 1970, marital instability and income predominated. This paper suggests that as new social phenomena emerge they quickly affect sensitive indicators of well‐being such as the infant mortality rate.     

Sex differences in infant mortality in Spitalfields, London, 1750-1839

This study examines sex differences in infant mortality in Spitalfields, London, and the estimated contribution of endogenous and exogenous factors to neonatal and infant mortality using the biometric model from 1750 to 1839. There was a marked decline in the risk of death during infancy and the neonatal period for both sexes during the study period. There was significant excess male infant mortality compared with that of females in the 1750-59 cohort, estimated from baptism and burial registers, but not in later cohorts. Similarly, males had higher neonatal mortality rates than females in 1750-59 but not in later cohorts. Biometric analyses suggest that the observed decrease in neonatal mortality in both sexes was caused by a reduction in both endogenous and exogenous causes of death. The contribution of maternal health and breast-feeding practices to the observed patterns of mortality is discussed in the light of available evidence.     

Racial differences in the relationship between infant mortality and socioeconomic status

This study presents an ecological analysis of the relationship between infant mortality and economic status by race in metropolitan Ohio, using census data on mother's residence and economic status determined by the percentage of low-income families living in each area. The analysis updates previous studies as white-non-white comparisons for total infant mortality are examined for the US censuses of 1960, 1970, 1980, 1990 and 2000; and more detailed period- and broad cause-specific rates are presented for 2000. A pronounced inverse association is consistently found between income status and infant mortality for whites, while for non-whites this pattern first emerges in 1979-81, disappears during the 1980s and then returns more strongly during the 1990s. Similarly, the 2000 data reveal a consistent inverse pattern between income status and infant mortality for white and non-white neonatal and postneonatal death rates, as well as exogenous cause-specific death rates. It is concluded that low-income whites and non-whites have infant mortality rates substantially higher than the overall rate for the population. Policy implications are discussed.     

Patterns and variations in the relationship between infant mortality and socioeconomic status

Abstract

This study utilizes an ecological approach based on census tracts of residence to examine the relationship between infant mortality and socioeconomic status in metropolitan Ohio at two points in time (1959–61 and 1969–71). The data presented clearly indicate that the infant mortality rate continues to exhibit a pronounced inverse association with a wide variety of socio‐economic variables. Although there were some notable exceptions and/or variations from the general patterns, a basic inverse relationship was generally found to be characteristic of both neonatal and postnatal components of infant mortality, for both males and females, and for both major exogenous and endogenous causes of death. Of all the variables examined, the one factor that emerged as the strongest and most consistent determinant of census tract variations in infant mortality was the proportion of low income families. Thus, the overriding conclusion suggested by this study is that in spite of such things as continued advances in medicine and public health, the expansion of a variety of social programs during the 1960's, and the recent resumption of a downward trend in the overall infant mortality rate, there has been little if any progress in achieving more equitable life chances for the economically deprived segments of our population.     

Income distribution and mortality: cross sectional ecological study of the Robin Hood index in the United States.

OBJECTIVE--To determine the effect of income inequality as measured by the Robin Hood index and the Gini coefficient on all cause and cause specific mortality in the United States. DESIGN--Cross sectional ecological study. SETTING--Households in the United States. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Disease specific mortality, income, household size, poverty, and smoking rates for each state. RESULTS--The Robin Hood index was positively correlated with total mortality adjusted for age (r = 0.54; P < 0.05). This association remained after adjustment for poverty (P < 0.007), where each percentage increase in the index was associated with'' an increase in the total mortality of 21.68 deaths per 100,000. Effects of the index were also found for infant mortality (P = 0.013); coronary heart disease (P = 0.004); malignant neoplasms (P = 0.023); and homicide (P < 0.001). Strong associations were also found between the index and causes of death amenable to medical intervention. The Gini coefficient showed very little correlation with any of the causes of death. CONCLUSION--Variations between states in the inequality of income were associated with increased mortality from several causes. The size of the gap between the wealthy and less well off--as distinct from the absolute standard of living enjoyed by the poor--seems to matter in its own right. The findings suggest that policies that deal with the growing inequities in income distribution may have an important impact on the health of the population.     

Brief and precarious lives: infant mortality in contrasting sites from medieval and post-medieval England (AD 850-1859)

This study compares the infant mortality profiles of 128 infants from two urban and two rural cemetery sites in medieval England. The aim of this paper is to assess the impact of urbanization and industrialization in terms of endogenous or exogenous causes of death. In order to undertake this analysis, two different methods of estimating gestational age from long bone lengths were used: a traditional regression method and a Bayesian method. The regression method tended to produce more marked peaks at 38 weeks, while the Bayesian method produced a broader range of ages and were more comparable with the expected "natural" mortality profiles.At all the sites, neonatal mortality (28-40 weeks) outweighed post-neonatal mortality (41-48 weeks) with rural Raunds Furnells in Northamptonshire, showing the highest number of neonatal deaths and post-medieval Spitalfields, London, showing a greater proportion of deaths due to exogenous or environmental factors. Of the four sites under study, Wharram Percy in Yorkshire showed the most convincing "natural" infant mortality profile, suggesting the inclusion of all births at the site (i.e., stillbirths and unbaptised infants).     

Mortality in over 350,000 Insured Swedish dogs from 1995–2000: I. Breed-, Gender-, Age- and Cause-specific Rates

This study presents data on over 350,000 insured Swedish dogs up to 10 years of age contributing to over one million dog-years at risk (DYAR) during 1995–2000. A total of 43,172 dogs died or were euthanised and of these 72% had a claim with a diagnosis for the cause of death. The overall total mortality was 393 deaths per 10,000 DYAR. Mortality rates are calculated for the 10 most common breeds, 10 breeds with high mortality and a group including all other breeds, crudely and for general causes of death. Proportional mortality is presented for several classifications. Five general causes accounted for 62% of the deaths with a diagnosis (i.e. tumour (18%), trauma (17%), locomotor (13%), heart (8%) and neurological (6%)). Mortality rates for the five most common diagnoses within the general causes of death are presented. These detailed statistics on mortality can be used in breed-specific strategies as well as for general health promotion programs. Further details on survival and relative risk by breed and age are presented in the companion paper [14].     

The Bourgeois-Pichat's biometric method and the influence of climate: new evidences from late 19th-century Italy

This paper examines to which extent seasonal and climatic conditions might affect the reliability of the Bourgeois-Pichat's method. Other scholars have already argued on this issue, but although climate has often been claimed to explain part of the differentials in mortality figures among Italian regions, to date its impact has not actually been recognized and quantitatively evaluated. To test such hypothesis data at the regional level from late 19th-century Italy have been analyzed. Our analysis of the biometric components revealed a strong bias in the estimates of the endogenous and exogenous components in the first month of life. Variations in infant mortality among Italian regions correlated with variations in the endogenous levels rather than in the exogenous levels of infant (neonatal) mortality, as it was expected owing to the infective nature of the diseases climate might induce. Specifically, Northern and colder regions featured high figures for both neonatal mortality and the endogenous component, while the opposite scheme applied to the Southern, more temperate regions. Finally, the reasons for such misleading results were investigated. It emerged that the model's assumption of a constant and invariant proportion of neonatal exogenous deaths to the total amount of exogenous deaths was not matched by the Italian data. This situation caused the excess neonatal exogenous mortality, especially that induced by cold climate in Northern regions, to be wrongly counted in the endogenous component.     

Economic distress and cause-of-death patterns for black and non-black men in Chicago: reconsidering the relevance of classic epidemiological transition theory

The mortality disadvantage of African Americans is well documented, but previous studies have not considered its implications for population theory in the general case of industrialized nation states with high levels of income inequality. This paper examines the relevance of classic epidemiological theory to the extremes of income and mortality observed in Chicago, one of America's most racially divided cities. We analyze cause-specific death rates for black and non-black male populations residing in Chicago's community areas by using linked data from the 1990 Census and from 1989-1991 individual death certificates. The same cause-of-death patterns explain much of the mortality of black and non-black men. These two major structures include one, degenerative diseases, the other, "tough-living" causes (accidents, homicides, and liver disease). Community socioeconomic status is strongly related to tough-living deaths within each racial group, and to degenerative deaths for African Americans. Black men's tough-living mortality is much greater than non-blacks', but their younger age structure suppresses their degenerative death rates. Aggregate unemployment and social disorganization account for the most salient disparities in mortality across racial groups. This patterning of mortality along a socioeconomic continuum supports epidemiological theory and extends its applicability to highly unequal populations within industrialized countries.     

Reducing Neonatal Mortality in India: Critical Role of Access to Emergency Obstetric Care

Background

Neonatal mortality currently accounts for 41% of all global deaths among children below five years. Despite recording a 33% decline in neonatal deaths between 2000 and 2009, about 900,000 neonates died in India in 2009. The decline in neonatal mortality is slower than in the post-neonatal period, and neonatal mortality rates have increased as a proportion of under-five mortality rates. Neonatal mortality rates are higher among rural dwellers of India, who make up at least two-thirds of India''s population. Identifying the factors influencing neonatal mortality will significantly improve child survival outcomes in India.

Methods

Our analysis is based on household data from the nationally representative 2008 Indian District Level Household Survey (DLHS-3). We use probit regression techniques to analyse the links between neonatal mortality at the household level and households'' access to health facilities. The probability of the child dying in the first month of birth is our dependent variable.

Results

We found that 80% of neonatal deaths occurred within the first week of birth, and that the probability of neonatal mortality is significantly lower when the child''s village is closer to the district hospital (DH), suggesting the critical importance of specialist hospital care in the prevention of newborn deaths. Neonatal deaths were lower in regions where emergency obstetric care was available at the District Hospitals. We also found that parental schooling and household wealth status improved neonatal survival outcomes.

Conclusions

Addressing the main causes of neonatal deaths in India – preterm deliveries, asphyxia, and sepsis – requires adequacy of specialised workforce and facilities for delivery and neonatal intensive care and easy access by mothers and neonates. The slow decline in neonatal death rates reflects a limited attention to factors which contribute to neonatal deaths. The suboptimal quality and coverage of Emergency Obstetric Care facilities in India require urgent attention.     

Maternal, neonatal and community factors influencing neonatal mortality in Brazil

Child mortality (the mortality of children less than five years old) declined considerably in the developing world in the 1990s, but infant mortality declined less. The reductions in neonatal mortality were not impressive and, as a consequence, there is an increasing percentage of infant deaths in the neonatal period. Any further reduction in child mortality, therefore, requires an understanding of the determinants of neonatal mortality. 209,628 birth and 2581 neonatal death records for the 1998 birth cohort from the city of S?o Paulo, Brazil, were probabilistically matched. Data were from SINASC and SIM, Information Systems on Live Births and Deaths of Brazil. Logistic regression was used to find the association between neonatal mortality and the following risk factors: birth weight, gestational age, Apgar scores at 1 and 5 minutes, delivery mode, plurality, sex, maternal education, maternal age, number of prior losses, prenatal care, race, parity and community development. Infants of older mothers were less likely to die in the neonatal period. Caesarean delivery was not found to be associated with neonatal mortality. Low birth weight, pre-term birth and low Apgar scores were associated with neonatal death. Having a mother who lives in the highest developed community decreased the odds of neonatal death, suggesting that factors not measured in this study are behind such association. This result may also indicate that other factors over and above biological and more proximate factors could affect neonatal death.     

The bourgeois‐pichat's biometric method and the influence of climate: New evidences from late 19th‐century Italy

Abstract

This paper examines to which extent seasonal and climatic conditions might affect the reliability of the Bourgeois‐Pichat's method. Other scholars have already argued on this issue, but although climate has often been claimed to explain part of the differentials in mortality figures among Italian regions, to date its impact has not actually been recognized and quantitatively evaluated. To test such hypothesis data at the regional level from late 19^th‐century Italy have been analyzed.

Our analysis of the biometric components revealed a strong bias in the estimates of the endogenous and exogenous components in the first month of life. Variations in infant mortality among Italian regions correlated with variations in the endogenous levels rather than in the exogenous levels of infant (neonatal) mortality, as it was expected owing to the infective nature of the diseases climate might induce. Specifically, Northern and colder regions featured high figures for both neonatal mortality and the endogenous component, while the opposite scheme applied to the Southern, more temperate regions.

Finally, the reasons for such misleading results were investigated. It emerged that the model's assumption of a constant and invariant proportion of neonatal exogenous deaths to the total amount of exogenous deaths was not matched by the Italian data. This situation caused the excess neonatal exogenous mortality, especially that induced by cold climate in Northern regions, to be wrongly counted in the endogenous component.     

Why Are Babies Dying in the First Month after Birth? A 7-Year Study of Neonatal Mortality in Northern Ghana

Objectives

To determine the neonatal mortality rate in the Kassena-Nankana District (KND) of northern Ghana, and to identify the leading causes and timing of neonatal deaths.

Methods

The KND falls within the Navrongo Health Research Centre’s Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS), which uses trained field workers to gather and update health and demographic information from community members every four months. We utilized HDSS data from 2003–2009 to examine patterns of neonatal mortality.

Results

A total of 17,751 live births between January 2003 and December 2009 were recorded, including 424 neonatal deaths 64.8%(275) of neonatal deaths occurred in the first week of life. The overall neonatal mortality rate was 24 per 1000 live births (95%CI 22 to 26) and early neonatal mortality rate was 16 per 1000 live births (95% CI 14 to 17). Neonatal mortality rates decreased over the period from 26 per 1000 live births in 2003 to 19 per 1000 live births in 2009. In all, 32%(137) of the neonatal deaths were from infections, 21%(88) from birth injury and asphyxia and 18%(76) from prematurity, making these three the leading causes of neonatal deaths in the area. Birth injury and asphyxia (31%) and prematurity (26%) were the leading causes of early neonatal deaths, while infection accounted for 59% of late neonatal deaths. Nearly 46% of all neonatal deaths occurred during the first three postnatal days. In multivariate analysis, multiple births, gestational age <32 weeks and first pregnancies conferred the highest odds of neonatal deaths.

Conclusions

Neonatal mortality rates are declining in rural northern Ghana, with majority of deaths occurring within the first week of life. This has major policy, programmatic and research implications. Further research is needed to better understand the social, cultural, and logistical factors that drive high mortality in the early days following delivery.     

Weather and deaths in Pittsburgh,Pennsylvania: A comparison with Birmingham,Alabama

The relationship between weather and daily mortality was examined over a 4-year period in the temperate climate of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Eight weather parameters were correlated with daily mortality using multiple, simple, and partial correlation techniques. Results from this study were then compared with results obtained from a previous investigation involving an identical analysis of the effects of weather on death in the subtropical climate of Birmingham, Alabama. Although the relationship between weather and total mortality is statistically significant in both areas, weather in the temperate region accounts for a greater portion of the daily variation in number of deaths. In both cities the effect of weather increases with age and is more intense among the white than the nonwhite population but does not appear to vary with sex. In both places weather significantly influences death due to respiratory diseases and circulatory diseases in general, but affects little, mortality from cancer or behaviorally related causes. The cities differ, however, in that Pittsburgh weather is significantly associated with deaths from ischemic heart disease but not with cerebrovascular mortality, while the reverse is observed in Birmingham. The cities also differ in specific meteorological factors and in the seasonal distribution of the intensity of the weather-mortality relationship.     

Inequality in income and mortality in the United States: analysis of mortality and potential pathways.

OBJECTIVE--To examine the relation between health outcomes and the equality with which income is distributed in the United States. DESIGN--The degree of income inequality, defined as the percentage of total household income received by the less well off 50% of households, and changes in income inequality were calculated for the 50 states in 1980 and 1990. These measures were then examined in relation to all cause mortality adjusted for age for each state, age specific deaths, changes in mortalities, and other health outcomes and potential pathways for 1980, 1990, and 1989-91. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE--Age adjusted mortality from all causes. RESULTS--There was a significant correlation (r = -0.62 [corrected], P < 0.001) between the percentage of total household income received by the less well off 50% in each state and all cause mortality, unaffected by adjustment for state median incomes. Income inequality was also significantly associated with age specific mortalities and rates of low birth weight, homicide, violent crime, work disability, expenditures on medical care and police protection, smoking, and sedentary activity. Rates of unemployment, imprisonment, recipients of income assistance and food stamps, lack of medical insurance, and educational outcomes were also worse as income inequality increased. Income inequality was also associated with mortality trends, and there was a suggestion of an impact of inequality trends on mortality trends. CONCLUSION--Variations between states in the inequality of the distribution of income are significantly associated with variations between states in a large number of health outcomes and social indicators and with mortality trends. These differences parallel relative investments in human and social capital. Economic policies that influence income and wealth inequality may have an important impact on the health of countries.     

Excess mortality associated with influenza epidemics in Portugal, 1980 to 2004

Background

Influenza epidemics have a substantial impact on human health, by increasing the mortality from pneumonia and influenza, respiratory and circulatory diseases, and all causes. This paper provides estimates of excess mortality rates associated with influenza virus circulation for 7 causes of death and 8 age groups in Portugal during the period of 1980–2004.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We compiled monthly mortality time series data by age for all-cause mortality, cerebrovascular diseases, ischemic heart diseases, diseases of the respiratory system, chronic respiratory diseases, pneumonia and influenza. We also used a control outcome, deaths from injuries. Age- and cause-specific baseline mortality was modelled by the ARIMA approach; excess deaths attributable to influenza were calculated by subtracting expected deaths from observed deaths during influenza epidemic periods. Influenza was associated with a seasonal average of 24.7 all-cause excess deaths per 100,000 inhabitants, approximately 90% of which were among seniors over 65 yrs. Excess mortality was 3–6 fold higher during seasons dominated by the A(H3N2) subtype than seasons dominated by A(H1N1)/B. High excess mortality impact was also seen in children under the age of four years. Seasonal excess mortality rates from all the studied causes of death were highly correlated with each other (Pearson correlation range, 0.65 to 0.95, P<0.001) and with seasonal rates of influenza-like-illness (ILI) among seniors over 65 years (Pearson correlation rho>0.64, P<0.05). By contrast, there was no correlation with excess mortality from injuries.

Conclusions/Significance

Our excess mortality approach is specific to influenza virus activity and produces influenza-related mortality rates for Portugal that are similar to those published for other countries. Our results indicate that all-cause excess mortality is a robust indicator of influenza burden in Portugal, and could be used to monitor the impact of influenza epidemics in this country. Additional studies are warranted to confirm these findings in other settings.     

Teenage fertility, socioeconomic status and infant mortality

This paper examines the relationship between infant mortality and a complex measure of socioeconomic status for evidence of diminution. In data on counties in the US with a minimum of 20 infant deaths over the 5-year period 1971-75, no evidence of a declining relationship between socioeconomic status and infant mortality was found. Both level of community affluence and racial composition of the population exerted direct effects on levels of infant deaths. In addition, both socioeconomic status and racial composition exhibited indirect effects which operated through teenage childbearing. When total infant mortality was subdivided, teenage fertility serves as a mediating variable in the link between socioeconomic status and neonatal mortality, but not for the postneonatal components. Given the nearly equivalent total effect of socioeconomic status on infant mortality, it is concluded that the classic division into neonatal (supposedly a function of biological and genetic agents) and postneonatal (traditionally attributed to social and environmental agents), may be too crude to allow the contemporary effects of the socioenvironmental milieu to be evaluated effectively.     

The fall and rise of US inequities in premature mortality: 1960-2002

Background

Debates exist as to whether, as overall population health improves, the absolute and relative magnitude of income- and race/ethnicity-related health disparities necessarily increase—or derease. We accordingly decided to test the hypothesis that health inequities widen—or shrink—in a context of declining mortality rates, by examining annual US mortality data over a 42 year period.

Methods and Findings

Using US county mortality data from 1960–2002 and county median family income data from the 1960–2000 decennial censuses, we analyzed the rates of premature mortality (deaths among persons under age 65) and infant death (deaths among persons under age 1) by quintiles of county median family income weighted by county population size. Between 1960 and 2002, as US premature mortality and infant death rates declined in all county income quintiles, socioeconomic and racial/ethnic inequities in premature mortality and infant death (both relative and absolute) shrank between 1966 and 1980, especially for US populations of color; thereafter, the relative health inequities widened and the absolute differences barely changed in magnitude. Had all persons experienced the same yearly age-specific premature mortality rates as the white population living in the highest income quintile, between 1960 and 2002, 14% of the white premature deaths and 30% of the premature deaths among populations of color would not have occurred.

Conclusions

The observed trends refute arguments that health inequities inevitably widen—or shrink—as population health improves. Instead, the magnitude of health inequalities can fall or rise; it is our job to understand why.