Do climate envelope models transfer? A manipulative test using dung beetle introductions

Climate envelope models (CEMs) are widely used to forecast future shifts in species ranges under climate change, but these models are rarely validated against independent data, and their fundamental assumption that climate limits species distributions is rarely tested. Here, we use the data on the introduction of five South African dung beetle species to Australia to test whether CEMs developed in the native range can predict distribution in the introduced range, where the confounding effects of dispersal limitation, resource limitation and the impact of natural enemies have been removed, leaving climate as the dominant constraint. For two of the five species, models developed in the native range predict distribution in the introduced range about as well as models developed in the introduced range where we know climate limits distribution. For the remaining three species, models developed in the native range perform poorly, implying that non-climatic factors limit the native distribution of these species and need to be accounted for in species distribution models. Quantifying relevant non-climatic factors and their likely interactions with climatic variables for forecasting range shifts under climate change remains a challenging task.     

Differential effects of climate and species interactions on range limits at a hybrid zone: potential direct and indirect impacts of climate change

The relative contributions of climate versus interspecific interactions in shaping species distributions have important implications for closely related species at contact zones. When hybridization occurs within a contact zone, these factors regulate hybrid zone location and movement. While a hybrid zone''s position may depend on both climate and interactions between the hybridizing species, little is known about how these factors interact to affect hybrid zone dynamics. Here, we utilize SDM (species distribution modeling) both to characterize the factors affecting the current location of a moving North American avian hybrid zone and to predict potential direct and indirect effects of climate change on future distributions. We focus on two passerine species that hybridize where their ranges meet, the Black‐capped (Poecile atricapillus) and Carolina (P. carolinensis) chickadee. Our contemporary climate models predict the occurrence of climatically suitable habitat extending beyond the hybrid zone for P. atricapillus only, suggesting that interspecific interactions primarily regulate this range boundary in P. atricapillus, while climatic factors regulate P. carolinensis. Year 2050 climate models predict a drastic northward shift in suitable habitat for P. carolinensis. Because of the greater importance of interspecific interactions for regulating the southern range limit of P. atricapillus, these climate‐mediated shifts in the distribution of P. carolinensis may indirectly lead to a range retraction in P. atricapillus. Together, our results highlight the ways climate change can both directly and indirectly affect species distributions and hybrid zone location. In addition, our study lends support to the longstanding hypothesis that abiotic factors regulate species'' poleward range limits, while biotic factors shape equatorial range limits.     

Limited prospects for future alpine treeline advance in the Canadian Rocky Mountains

Treeline advance has occurred throughout the twentieth century in mountainous regions around the world; however, local variation and temporal lags in responses to climate warming indicate that the upper limits of some treelines are not necessarily in climatic equilibrium. These observations suggest that factors other than climate are constraining tree establishment beyond existing treelines. Using a seed addition experiment, we tested the effects of seed availability, predation and microsite limitation on the establishment of two subalpine tree species (Picea engelmannii and Abies lasiocarpa) across four treelines in the Canadian Rocky Mountains. The effect of vegetation removal on seedling growth was also determined, and microclimate conditions were monitored. Establishment limitations observed in the field were placed in context with the effects of soil properties observed in a parallel experiment. The seed addition experiment revealed reduced establishment with increasing elevation, suggesting that although establishment within the treeline ecotone is at least partially seed limited, other constraints are more important beyond the current treeline. The effects of herbivory and microsite availability significantly reduced seedling establishment but were less influential beyond the treeline. Microclimate monitoring revealed that establishment was negatively related to growing season temperatures and positively related to the duration of winter snow cover, counter to the conventional expectation that establishment is limited by low temperatures. Overall, it appears that seedling establishment beyond treeline is predominantly constrained by a combination of high soil surface temperatures during the growing season, reduced winter snowpack and unfavourable soil properties. Our study supports the assertion that seedling establishment in alpine treeline ecotones is simultaneously limited by various climatic and nonclimatic drivers. Together, these factors may limit future treeline advance in the Canadian Rocky Mountains and should be considered when assessing the potential for treeline advance in alpine systems elsewhere     

Biotic context and soil properties modulate native plant responses to enhanced rainfall

Background and Aims The environmental and biotic context within which plants grow have a great potential to modify responses to climatic changes, yet few studies have addressed both the direct effects of climate and the modulating roles played by variation in the biotic (e.g. competitors) and abiotic (e.g. soils) environment.Methods In a grassland with highly heterogeneous soils and community composition, small seedlings of two native plants, Lasthenia californica and Calycadenia pauciflora, were transplanted into factorially watered and fertilized plots. Measurements were made to test how the effect of climatic variability (mimicked by the watering treatment) on the survival, growth and seed production of these species was modulated by above-ground competition and by edaphic variables.Key Results Increased competition outweighed the direct positive impacts of enhanced rainfall on most fitness measures for both species, resulting in no net effect of enhanced rainfall. Both species benefitted from enhanced rainfall when the absence of competitors was accompanied by high soil water retention capacity. Fertilization did not amplify the watering effects; rather, plants benefitted from enhanced rainfall or competitor removal only in ambient nutrient conditions with high soil water retention capacity.Conclusions The findings show that the direct effects of climatic variability on plant fitness may be reversed or neutralized by competition and, in addition, may be strongly modulated by soil variation. Specifically, coarse soil texture was identified as a factor that may limit plant responsiveness to altered water availability. These results highlight the importance of considering the abiotic as well as biotic context when making future climate change forecasts.     

The ecophysiology of seed persistence: a mechanistic view of the journey to germination or demise

Seed persistence is the survival of seeds in the environment once they have reached maturity. Seed persistence allows a species, population or genotype to survive long after the death of parent plants, thus distributing genetic diversity through time. The ability to predict seed persistence accurately is critical to inform long‐term weed management and flora rehabilitation programs, as well as to allow a greater understanding of plant community dynamics. Indeed, each of the 420000 seed‐bearing plant species has a unique set of seed characteristics that determine its propensity to develop a persistent soil seed bank. The duration of seed persistence varies among species and populations, and depends on the physical and physiological characteristics of seeds and how they are affected by the biotic and abiotic environment. An integrated understanding of the ecophysiological mechanisms of seed persistence is essential if we are to improve our ability to predict how long seeds can survive in soils, both now and under future climatic conditions. In this review we present an holistic overview of the seed, species, climate, soil, and other site factors that contribute mechanistically to seed persistence, incorporating physiological, biochemical and ecological perspectives. We focus on current knowledge of the seed and species traits that influence seed longevity under ex situ controlled storage conditions, and explore how this inherent longevity is moderated by changeable biotic and abiotic conditions in situ, both before and after seeds are dispersed. We argue that the persistence of a given seed population in any environment depends on its resistance to exiting the seed bank via germination or death, and on its exposure to environmental conditions that are conducive to those fates. By synthesising knowledge of how the environment affects seeds to determine when and how they leave the soil seed bank into a resistance–exposure model, we provide a new framework for developing experimental and modelling approaches to predict how long seeds will persist in a range of environments.     

Comparison of germination and seed bank dynamics of dimorphic seeds of the cold desert halophyte Suaeda corniculata subsp. mongolica

Background and Aims

Differences in dormancy and germination requirements have been documented in heteromorphic seeds of many species, but it is unknown how this difference contributes to maintenance and regeneration of populations. The primary aim of this study was to compare the seed bank dynamics, including dormancy cycling, of the two seed morphs (black and brown) of the cold desert halophyte Suaeda corniculata and, if differences were found, to determine their influence on regeneration of the species.

Method

Seeds of the two seed morphs were buried, exhumed and tested monthly for 24 months over a range of temperatures and salinities, and germination recovery and viability were determined after exposure to salinity and water stress. Seedling emergence and dynamics of the soil seed bank were also investigated for the two morphs.

Key Results

Black seeds had an annual dormancy/non-dormancy cycle, while brown seeds, which were non-dormant at maturity, remained non-dormant. Black seeds also exhibited an annual cycle in sensitivity of germination to salinity. Seedlings derived from black seeds emerged in July and August and those from brown seeds in May. Seedlings were recruited from 2·6 % of the black seeds and from 2·8 % of the brown seeds in the soil, and only 0·5 % and 0·4 % of the total number of black and brown seeds in the soil, respectively, gave rise to seedlings that survived to produce seeds. Salinity and water stress induced dormancy in black seeds and decreased viability of brown seeds. Brown seeds formed only a transient soil seed bank and black seeds a persistent seed bank.

Conclusions

The presence of a dormancy cycle in black but not in brown seeds of S. corniculata and differences in germination requirements of the two morphs cause them to differ in their germination dynamics. The study contributes to our limited knowledge of dormancy cycling and seed bank formation in species producing heteromorphic seeds.     

花楸树种子散布、萌发与种群天然更新的关系

花楸树是我国东北林区重要的非木质资源树种,其实生天然更新不良.本文通过研究花楸树种子散布、土壤种子库及种子萌发出土过程,分析花楸树实生天然更新的影响因素.结果表明：自然散落的花楸树果实96.1%分布于母株2 m范围内,凋落物层和土壤表层（0～2 cm）的种子数占土壤种子库总数的97.0%;不同季节花楸树土壤种子库种子数量差别很大,当年11月上旬种子数量最多,达(257.7±69.2)粒·m^-2;翌年7月下旬种子数量最少,仅为(2.9±2.9)粒·m^-2;温度不是花楸树种子萌发出土过程的限制因子,0 ℃～5 ℃时幼苗出苗率达(67.5±6.6)%,但对其出苗速率影响显著.土壤含水量为50%时,花楸树出苗率最高,达(74.7±4.2)%;含水量为60%时,幼苗死亡率最低,为(32.6±0.6)%.花楸树种子的散布格局和土壤种子库的时空分布格局影响种子的萌发出土过程,进而影响其种群的天然更新.     

Conifer Presence May Negatively Affect Sugar Maple’s Ability to Migrate into the Boreal Forest Through Reduced Foliar Nutritional Status

The discipline of ecology suffers from a lack of knowledge of non-climatic factors (for example, plant–soil, plant–plant and plant–insect interactions) to predict tree species range shifts under climate change. The next generation of simulation models of forest response to climate change must build upon local observations of species interactions and growth along climatic gradients. We examined whether sugar maple (Acer saccharum) seedlings were disadvantaged with respect to soil nutrient uptake under coniferous canopies, as this species would need to migrate northward into conifer-dominated forests in response to climate change. An experimental design was applied to 3 sites, forming the largest possible latitudinal/climatic gradient for sugar maple in Quebec (Canada) and isolating the effect of conifer presence on its seedling’s nutritional status. We tested whether: (1) both soil and climate and (2) presence of conifers affected foliar nutrient levels of sugar maple seedlings. Climate and soil (through pH) strongly affected nutrient availability for sugar maple seedlings and predicted 63.7% of their foliar nutrient variability. When controlling for site effects, we found a significant negative effect of conifers on foliar Ca and Mg levels of maple seedlings, which can adversely affect their overall health and vigour. When considering projected modifications of the forest environment due to climate change, we suggest that northward migration of sugar maple will be negatively affected by the presence of conifers through reduced foliar nutrition.     

Long-term demographic consequences of a seed dispersal disruption

The loss or decline of vertebrate frugivores can limit the regeneration of plants that depend on them. However, empirical evidence is showing that this is still very scarce, as functionally equivalent species may contribute to maintain the mutualistic interaction. Here, we investigated the long-term consequences of the extinction of frugivorous lizards on the population persistence of a Mediterranean relict shrub Cneorum tricoccon (Cneoraceae). We examined the demographic parameters among 26 insular and mainland populations, which encompass the entire plant distributional range, comparing populations with lizards with those in which these are extinct, but in which alien mammals currently act as seed dispersers. Plant recruitment was found to be higher on island populations with lizards than on those with mammals, and the long-term effects of the native disperser's loss were found in all vital phases of plant regeneration. The study thus gives evidence of the cascading effects of human-induced changes in ecosystems, showing how the disruption of native ecological processes can lead to species regression and, in the long term, even to local extinctions.     

Aerial and soil seed banks enable populations of an annual species to cope with an unpredictable dune ecosystem

Background and Aims

Simultaneous formation of aerial and soil seed banks by a species provides a mechanism for population maintenance in unpredictable environments. Eolian activity greatly affects growth and regeneration of plants in a sand dune system, but we know little about the difference in the contributions of these two seed banks to population dynamics in sand dunes.

Methods

Seed release, germination, seedling emergence and survival of a desert annual, Agriophyllum squarrosum (Chenopodiaceae), inhabiting the Ordos Sandland in China, were determined in order to explore the different functions of the aerial and soil seed banks.

Key Results

The size of the aerial seed bank was higher than that of the soil seed bank throughout the growing season. Seed release was positively related to wind velocity. Compared with the soil seed bank, seed germination from the aerial seed bank was lower at low temperature (5/15 °C night/day) but higher in the light. Seedling emergence from the soil seed bank was earlier than that from the aerial seed bank. Early-emerged (15 April–15 May) seedlings died due to frost, but seedlings that emerged during the following months survived to reproduce successfully.

Conclusions

The timing of seed release and different germination behaviour resulted in a temporal heterogeneity of seedling emergence and establishment between the two seed banks. The study suggests that a bet-hedging strategy for the two seed banks enables A. squarrosum populations to cope successfully with the unpredictable desert environment.     

Quantitative prediction of the distribution and abundance of Vaccinium myrtillus with climatic and edaphic factors

Question: Can the distribution and abundance of Vaccinium myrtillus be reasonably predicted with soil nutritional and climatic factors? Location: Forests of France. Methods: We used Braun‐Blanquet abundance/dominance information for Vaccinium myrtillus on 2905 forest sites extracted from the phyto‐ecological database EcoPlant, to characterize the species ecological response to climatic and edaphic factors and to predict its cover/abundance at the national scale. The link between cover/abundance of the species and climatic (65 monthly and annual predictors concerning temperature, precipitation, radiation, potential evapotranspiration, water balance) and edaphic (two predictors: soil pH and C:N ratio) factors was investigated with proportional odds models. We evaluated the quality of our model with 9830 independent relevés extracted from Sophy, a large phytosociological database for France. Results: In France, Vaccinium myrtillus is at the southern limit of its European geographic range and three environmental factors (mean annual temperature, soil pH and C:N ratio) allow prediction of its distribution and abundance in forests with high success rates. The species reveals a preference for colder sites (especially mountains) and nutritionally poor soils (low pH and high C:N ratio). A predictive map of its geographic range reveals that the main potential habitats are mountains and northwestern France. The potential habitats with maximal expected abundance are the Vosges and the Massif central mountains, which are both acidic mountains. Conclusions: Complete niche models including climate and soil nutritional conditions allow an improvement of the spatial prediction of plant species abundance at a broad scale. The use of soil nutritional variables in distribution models further leads to an improvement in the prediction of plant species habitats within their geographical range.     

Know your limits? Climate extremes impact the range of Scots pine in unexpected places

Background and Aims Although extreme climatic events such as drought are known to modify forest dynamics by triggering tree dieback, the impact of extreme cold events, especially at the low-latitude margin (‘rear edge’) of species distributional ranges, has received little attention. The aim of this study was to examine the impact of one such extreme cold event on a population of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) along the species’ European southern rear-edge range limit and to determine how such events can be incorporated into species distribution models (SDMs).Methods A combination of dendrochronology and field observation was used to quantify how an extreme cold event in 2001 in eastern Spain affected growth, needle loss and mortality of Scots pine. Long-term European climatic data sets were used to contextualize the severity of the 2001 event, and an SDM for Scots pine in Europe was used to predict climatic range limits.Key Results The 2001 winter reached record minimum temperatures (equivalent to the maximum European-wide diurnal ranges) and, for trees already stressed by a preceding dry summer and autumn, this caused dieback and large-scale mortality. Needle loss and mortality were particularly evident in south-facing sites, where post-event recovery was greatly reduced. The SDM predicted European Scots pine distribution mainly on the basis of responses to maximum and minimum monthly temperatures, but in comparison with this the observed effects of the 2001 cold event at the southerly edge of the range limit were unforeseen.Conclusions The results suggest that in order to better forecast how anthropogenic climate change might affect future forest distributions, distribution modelling techniques such as SDMs must incorporate climatic extremes. For Scots pine, this study shows that the effects of cold extremes should be included across the entire distribution margin, including the southern ‘rear edge’, in order to avoid biased predictions based solely on warmer climatic scenarios.     

Is the spatial distribution of European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) limited by its potential height growth?

Aim To improve our understanding of species range limits by studying how height growth, a trait related to plant survival, varies throughout the geographic range of Fagus sylvatica L. in France. Location The geographic range of beech in France, representing the western area of its European distribution, within which this species exhibits range distribution limits in both plains and mountainous areas. Methods A generalized linear regression model was used to link beech growth performance to environmental variables using data from 819 plots of the French National Forest Inventory (IFN) database. This model was applied to predict potential growth on 97,281 IFN plots covering the geographic range of beech in France. A kriging technique was used to interpolate estimated growth potential. Finally, the performance of plot‐based predictions of potential growth from the map (i.e. map quality) was evaluated against an independent data set. Results The beech growth performance model highlighted the major impact of climate on potential tree growth at a broad spatial scale. The relevant climatic factors were related mainly to spring cold, summer heat, and winter temperatures and rainfall. The study also revealed the predictive power of soil parameters, which explained a large proportion of the variation in potential beech growth (c. 30%). Analyses of height growth patterns near the boundary of the species range in France showed that the limit only partly coincides with the growth decline caused by climatic and soil factors. Along parts of the range limit, the predicted potential for growth was high, suggesting that in these areas the limit of the range could be explained by other factors, such as competition or constraints on reproduction. Main conclusions The spatial variation in the potential height growth of Fagus sylvatica can be explained by environmental factors and is partly correlated with its regional range limits. By identifying areas where growth potential constrains the geographic range of species, environmental growth models can help to improve our knowledge of the spatial drivers of species geographic range limits and shed light on their response to future environmental changes.     

Is the endangered Apium repens (Jacq.) Lag. rare because of a narrow regeneration niche?

The conservation of rare plant species is an important aspect of global biodiversity protection, but in many cases these species and the reasons why they are rare are poorly understood. The perennial umbellifer Apium repens is generally regarded to be a rare species all over its European range. We hypothesized that its rarity might be caused by a restricted regeneration niche, that is, highly specific requirements for sexual regeneration, low seed dispersal potential and low endurance capacity of seeds in the ground. We conducted several experimental investigations on its germination ecology, hydrochorous dispersal potential and soil seed bank properties. Apium repens showed high germination success under a variety of abiotic conditions. Either light or cold-wet stratification was necessary to stimulate germination. Seeds were able to float for more than 50 days when protected from precipitation, and soil seed bank sampling revealed that at least some seeds of A. repens were contained in soil depths of up to 10 cm. Overall, our findings do not support the hypothesis that the rarity of A. repens is caused by highly specific requirements for its sexual regeneration. Nonetheless, its germination ecology should be considered when designing conservation measures for this endangered species.     

Temperature and soil fertility as regulators of tree line Scots pine growth and survival—implications for the acclimation capacity of northern populations

The acclimation capacity of leading edge tree populations is crucially important in a warming climate. Theoretical considerations suggest that adaptation through genetic change is needed, but this may be a slow process. Both positive and catastrophic outcomes have been predicted, while empirical studies have lagged behind theory development. Here we present results of a 30‐year study of 55,000 Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) trees, planted in 15 common gardens in three consecutive years near and beyond the present Scots pine tree line. Our results show that, contrary to earlier predictions, even long‐distance transfers to the North can be successful when soil fertility is high. This suggests that present northern populations have a very high acclimation capacity. We also found that while temperature largely controls Scots pine growth, soil nutrient availability plays an important role—in concert with interpopulation genetic variation—in Scots pine survival and fitness in tree line conditions. These results suggest that rapid range expansions and substantial growth enhancements of Scots pine are possible in fertile sites as seed production and soil nutrient mineralization are both known to increase under a warming climate. Finally, as the ontogenetic pattern of tree mortality was highly site specific and unpredictable, our results emphasize the need for long‐term field trials when searching for the factors that control fitness of trees in the variable edaphic and climatic conditions of the far North.     

Altitude‐mediated soil properties,not geography or climatic distance,explain the distribution of a tropical endemic herb

Understanding the ecological processes that govern species'' range margins is a fundamental question in ecology with practical implications in conservation biology. The center‐periphery hypothesis predicts that organisms have higher abundance at the center of their geographic range. However, most tests of this hypothesis often used raster data, assuming that climatic conditions are consistent across one square km. This assumption is not always justified, particularly for mountainous species for which climatic conditions can vary widely across a small spatial scale. Previous studies rarely evenly sample occurrence data across the species'' distribution. In this study, we sampled an endemic perennial herb, Thunbergia atacorensis (Acanthanceae), throughout its range in West Africa using 54 plots and collected data on (a)biotic variables, the species density, leaf mass per area, and basal diameter. We built a structural equation model to test the direct and indirect effects of distance from geographic and climatic niche centers, and altitude on Thunbergia density as mediated by abiotic and biotic factors, population demographic structure, and individual size. Contrary to the prediction of the center‐periphery hypothesis, we found no significant effect of distance from geographic or climatic niche centers on plant density. This indicates that even the climatic center does not necessarily have optimal ecological conditions. In contrast, plant density varied with altitudinal gradient, but this was mediated by the effect of soil nitrogen and potassium which had positive effect on plant size. Surprisingly, we found no direct or mediating effect of interspecific competition on plant density. Altogether, our results highlight the role of geography, climatic, and ecological mismatch in predicting species distribution. Our study highlights that where altitudinal gradient is strong local‐scale heterogeneity in abiotic factors can play important role in shaping species range limits.     

Relative climatic,edaphic and management controls of plant functional trait signatures

Objective: To identify the relative roles of climatic, edaphic and management factors in controlling the weighted mean traits of vegetation. Location: Eleven sites in Europe and one in Israel undergoing transitions in land use. Material and Methods: Standardised methods were used to collect information on species traits and attributes from plots covering a range of land uses at each site. This was combined with abundance data to create a plot × trait matrix. Variance partitioning was used to identify the relative roles of climate, soil and management on the weighted and unweighted mean traits of the vegetation in the full data set, and the data set divided into vegetative traits (including life‐form, clonality, defence and a range of leaf traits) and traits linked to regeneration via seeds (including seed mass, dispersal and pollination mechanism). Results: Variance partitioning of the full data set showed that climate (18.7%), explained more variance in the weighted mean traits of the vegetation than climate and soil together (9.2), soil (6.9) and management (6.1). There was a similar distribution of variance explained for both vegetative and regeneration via seed traits, although more variance was explained for the latter. This restricted set of climatic, edaphic and management variables could explain 45‐50% of the variance in the weighted mean traits of the vegetation between plots. There were only small differences between analyses of the weighted and unweighted data. Conclusions: Despite large variations in climate and soils between sites, there was still a separate and recognisable impact of management on the mean weighted traits of the vegetation. There was also a degree of shared variation between the three groups of factors, indicating that the response of plant traits to one group of factors may not be predictable because they may be modulated by their response to other groups.     

Conditional cold avoidance drives between-population variation in germination behaviour in Calluna vulgaris

Background and Aims

Across their range, widely distributed species are exposed to a variety of climatic and other environmental conditions, and accordingly may display variation in life history strategies. For seed germination in cold climates, two contrasting responses to variation in winter temperature have been documented: first, an increased ability to germinate at low temperatures (cold tolerance) as winter temperatures decrease, and secondly a reduced ability to germinate at low temperatures (cold avoidance) that concentrates germination towards the warmer parts of the season.

Methods

Germination responses were tested for Calluna vulgaris, the dominant species of European heathlands, from ten populations collected along broad-scale bioclimatic gradients (latitude, altitude) in Norway, covering a substantial fraction of the species'' climatic range. Incubation treatments varied from 10 to 25 °C, and germination performance across populations was analysed in relation to temperature conditions at the seed collection locations.

Key Results

Seeds from all populations germinated rapidly and to high final percentages under the warmer incubation temperatures. Under low incubation temperatures, cold-climate populations had significantly lower germination rates and percentages than warm-climate populations. While germination rates and percentages also increased with seed mass, seed mass did not vary along the climatic gradients, and therefore did not explain the variation in germination responses.

Conclusions

Variation in germination responses among Calluna populations was consistent with increased temperature requirements for germination towards colder climates, indicating a cold-avoidance germination strategy conditional on the temperature at the seeds'' origin. Along a gradient of increasing temperatures this suggests a shift in selection pressures on germination from climatic adversity (i.e. low temperatures and potential frost risk in early or late season) to competitive performance and better exploitation of the entire growing season.     

Long-term monitoring of the restoration and development of limestone grasslands in north western Germany: Vegetation screening and soil seed bank analysis

We analysed the long-term development of limestone grasslands in West- and Central Europe (Mesobromion: Gentiano-Koelerietum) under conditions of restoration comparing vegetation changes with the composition of its corresponding soil seed bank over a time period from 1992 to 2005. Because of optimal climatic, edaphic and geomorphologic conditions restoration of vegetation developed gradually into the optimal phase of the typical limestone grassland vegetation type. However, the development of the soil seed bank compared to that of the actual vegetation cover is much slower, and even after 13 years all three study plots did not reach the optimal phase compared to soil seed bank composition from well-developed control vegetation nearby. This finding agrees with the assumption that after changes of management limestone grasslands need decades or even centuries to develop into self-sustaining species-rich habitats. We also monitored the orchid Ophrys insectifera as target species and characteristic species of this type of plant association over the last 27 years. Here, population density increased continuously over time indicating that vegetation restoration efforts of the last decades have had a positive effect.We further documented that the data obtained for the soil seed bank largely depend on the applied method used for the characterization of the soil seed bank. The seedling emergence and the rinsing method provided different results, and in case of our study area the rinsing method was mostly superior. The rinsing method detected up to 20fold higher total seed numbers.     

High evolutionary constraints limited adaptive responses to past climate changes in toad skulls

Interactions among traits that build a complex structure may be represented as genetic covariation and correlation. Genetic correlations may act as constraints, deflecting the evolutionary response from the direction of natural selection. We investigated the relative importance of drift, selection, and constraints in driving skull divergence in a group of related toad species. The distributional range of these species encompasses very distinct habitats with important climatic differences and the species are primarily distinguished by differences in their skulls. Some parts of the toad skull, such as the snout, may have functional relevance in reproductive ecology, detecting water cues. Thus, we hypothesized that the species skull divergence was driven by natural selection associated with climatic variation. However, given that all species present high correlations among skull traits, our second prediction was of high constraints deflecting the response to selection. We first extracted the main morphological direction that is expected to be subjected to selection by using within- and between-species covariance matrices. We then used evolutionary regressions to investigate whether divergence along this direction is explained by climatic variation between species. We also used quantitative genetics models to test for a role of random drift versus natural selection in skull divergence and to reconstruct selection gradients along species phylogeny. Climatic variables explained high proportions of between-species variation in the most selected axis. However, most evolutionary responses were not in the direction of selection, but aligned with the direction of allometric size, the dimension of highest phenotypic variance in the ancestral population. We conclude that toad species have responded to selection related to climate in their skulls, yet high evolutionary constraints dominated species divergence and may limit species responses to future climate change.