Caribbean mesophotic coral ecosystems are unlikely climate change refugia

Deeper coral reefs experience reduced temperatures and light and are often shielded from localized anthropogenic stressors such as pollution and fishing. The deep reef refugia hypothesis posits that light‐dependent stony coral species at deeper depths are buffered from thermal stress and will avoid bleaching‐related mass mortalities caused by increasing sea surface temperatures under climate change. This hypothesis has not been tested because data collection on deeper coral reefs is difficult. Here we show that deeper (mesophotic) reefs, 30–75 m depth, in the Caribbean are not refugia because they have lower bleaching threshold temperatures than shallow reefs. Over two thermal stress events, mesophotic reef bleaching was driven by a bleaching threshold that declines 0.26 °C every +10 m depth. Thus, the main premise of the deep reef refugia hypothesis that cooler environments are protective is incorrect; any increase in temperatures above the local mean warmest conditions can lead to thermal stress and bleaching. Thus, relatively cooler temperatures can no longer be considered a de facto refugium for corals and it is likely that many deeper coral reefs are as vulnerable to climate change as shallow water reefs.     

Physiological effects of heat and cold exposure in the common reef coral Acropora millepora

Reef-forming corals are under threat globally from climate change, leading to changes in sea temperatures with both hot and cold events recorded and projected to increase in frequency and severity in the future. Tolerance to heat and cold exposure has been found to be mutually exclusive in other marine invertebrates, but it is currently unclear whether a trade-off exists between hot and cold thermal tolerance in tropical corals. This study quantified the changes in physiology in Acropora millepora from the central Great Barrier Reef subjected to three temperature treatments; sub-lethal cold, ambient and sub-lethal heat (23.0 °C, 27.0 °C and 29.5 °C, respectively). After 10 weeks, pigment content and Symbiodiniaceae density increased in cold-treated corals but decreased in heat-treated corals relative to corals at ambient conditions. Heat-treated corals gained less mass relative to both ambient and cold-treated corals. These results indicate that the physiological condition of A. millepora corals examined here improved in response to mild cold exposure compared to ambient exposure and decreased under mild heat exposure despite both these temperatures occurring in situ around 15% of the year. The energetic condition of corals in the hotter treatment was reduced compared to both ambient and cooler groups, indicating that corals may be more resilient to mild cold exposure relative to mild heat exposure. The results indicate that the corals shifted their resource allocation in response to temperature treatment, investing more energy into skeletal extension rather than maintenance. No evidence of thermal tolerance trade-offs was found, and cold thermal tolerance was not lost in more heat-tolerant individuals. An enhanced understanding of physiological responses of corals at both ends of the thermal spectrum is important for predicting the resilience of corals under projected climate change conditions.

     

Evidence for a host role in thermotolerance divergence between populations of the mustard hill coral (Porites astreoides) from different reef environments

Studying the mechanisms that enable coral populations to inhabit spatially varying thermal environments can help evaluate how they will respond in time to the effects of global climate change and elucidate the evolutionary forces that enable or constrain adaptation. Inshore reefs in the Florida Keys experience higher temperatures than offshore reefs for prolonged periods during the summer. We conducted a common garden experiment with heat stress as our selective agent to test for local thermal adaptation in corals from inshore and offshore reefs. We show that inshore corals are more tolerant of a 6‐week temperature stress than offshore corals. Compared with inshore corals, offshore corals in the 31 °C treatment showed significantly elevated bleaching levels concomitant with a tendency towards reduced growth. In addition, dinoflagellate symbionts (Symbiodinium sp.) of offshore corals exhibited reduced photosynthetic efficiency. We did not detect differences in the frequencies of major (>5%) haplotypes comprising Symbiodinium communities hosted by inshore and offshore corals, nor did we observe frequency shifts (‘shuffling’) in response to thermal stress. Instead, coral host populations showed significant genetic divergence between inshore and offshore reefs, suggesting that in Porites astreoides, the coral host might play a prominent role in holobiont thermotolerance. Our results demonstrate that coral populations inhabiting reefs <10‐km apart can exhibit substantial differences in their physiological response to thermal stress, which could impact their population dynamics under climate change.     

Effects of thermal history on the responses to thermal stress of a large benthic foraminifera,Calcarina gaudichaudii

Marine ecosystems, particularly coastal environments, are rapidly changing due to anthropogenic impacts resulting in increased global climate change (ocean warming), ocean acidification, hypoxia, and eutrophication. On coral reefs, symbiont-bearing large benthic foraminifera (LBFs) can play a key role as reef constituents and carbonate producers, contributing up to 5% of reef-scale carbonate budgets. However, projected climate change, particularly ocean warming, has the potential to significantly alter the conditions in which marine organisms persist. While the response of LBFs to elevated thermal stress is well documented in laboratory studies, the potential influence of adaptation or acclimatization through prior environmental thermal history on this response remains largely unknown. In this study, specimens of Calcarina gaudichaudii, an LBF from the Penghu Islands, Taiwan, were collected from thermally variable intertidal and thermally stable subtidal (~ 6 m depth) environments representing thermal history. LBFs were then acclimated to laboratory conditions at ambient (25 °C) and elevated (28 °C) temperatures for three weeks, and subsequently exposed to control and heat stress treatments (25 °C, 28 °C, 30 °C, 33 °C) for an additional one week. Photosynthetic rates (determined through oxygen flux measurements) of C. gaudichaudii significantly decreased in specimens collected at subtidal depths acclimated at 25 °C when compared to those acclimated at 28 °C, whereas there was no effect of thermal history on respiration, indicating that symbiont and holobiont responses may differ in LBFs. Additionally, maximum photochemical efficiency (Fv/Fm) significantly decreased as a result of heat stress, although bleaching was not visually observed after one week. These results highlight the plastic responses of the algal microbiome and indicate that thermal history, acclimatization temperature, and heat stress interact to affect the physiological status of C. gaudichaudii. This study adds to the growing literature which highlights the larger implications of understanding thermal history as an important factor to consider to better understand how ecosystem processes (e.g., carbonate production) are altered on modern coral reefs.

     

Change in algal symbiont communities after bleaching,not prior heat exposure,increases heat tolerance of reef corals

Mutualistic organisms can be particularly susceptible to climate change stress, as their survivorship is often limited by the most vulnerable partner. However, symbiotic plasticity can also help organisms in changing environments by expanding their realized niche space. Coral–algal (Symbiodinium spp.) symbiosis exemplifies this dichotomy: the partnership is highly susceptible to ‘bleaching’ (stress‐induced symbiosis breakdown), but stress‐tolerant symbionts can also sometimes mitigate bleaching. Here, we investigate the role of diverse and mutable symbiotic partnerships in increasing corals' ability to thrive in high temperature conditions. We conducted repeat bleaching and recovery experiments on the coral Montastraea cavernosa, and used quantitative PCR and chlorophyll fluorometry to assess the structure and function of Symbiodinium communities within coral hosts. During an initial heat exposure (32 °C for 10 days), corals hosting only stress‐sensitive symbionts (Symbiodinium C3) bleached, but recovered (at either 24 °C or 29 °C) with predominantly (>90%) stress‐tolerant symbionts (Symbiodinium D1a), which were not detected before bleaching (either due to absence or extreme low abundance). When a second heat stress (also 32 °C for 10 days) was applied 3 months later, corals that previously bleached and were now dominated by D1a Symbiodinium experienced less photodamage and symbiont loss compared to control corals that had not been previously bleached, and were therefore still dominated by Symbiodinium C3. Additional corals that were initially bleached without heat by a herbicide (DCMU, at 24 °C) also recovered predominantly with D1a symbionts, and similarly lost fewer symbionts during subsequent thermal stress. Increased thermotolerance was also not observed in C3‐dominated corals that were acclimated for 3 months to warmer temperatures (29 °C) before heat stress. These findings indicate that increased thermotolerance post‐bleaching resulted from symbiont community composition changes, not prior heat exposure. Moreover, initially undetectable D1a symbionts became dominant only after bleaching, and were critical to corals' resilience after stress and resistance to future stress.     

Rapid fluctuations in flow and water-column properties in Asan Bay, Guam: implications for selective resilience of coral reefs in warming seas

Hydrodynamics and water-column properties were investigated off west-central Guam from July 2007 through January 2008. Rapid fluctuations, on time scales of 10s of min, in currents, temperature, salinity, and acoustic backscatter were observed to occur on sub-diurnal frequencies along more than 2 km of the fore reef but not at the reef crest. During periods characterized by higher sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), weaker wind forcing, smaller ocean surface waves, and greater thermal stratification, rapid decreases in temperature and concurrent rapid increases in salinity and acoustic backscatter coincided with onshore-directed near-bed currents and offshore-directed near-surface currents. During the study, these cool-water events, on average, lasted 2.3 h and decreased the water temperature 0.57 °C, increased the salinity 0.25 PSU, and were two orders of magnitude more prevalent during the summer season than the winter. During the summer season when the average satellite-derived SST anomaly was +0.63 °C, these cooling events, on average, lowered the temperature 1.14 °C along the fore reef but only 0.11 °C along the reef crest. The rapid shifts appear to be the result of internal tidal bores pumping cooler, more saline, higher-backscatter oceanic water from depths >50 m over cross-shore distances of 100 s of m into the warmer, less saline waters at depths of 20 m and shallower. Such internal bores appear to have the potential to buffer shallow coral reefs from predicted increases in SSTs by bringing cool, offshore water to shallow coral environments. These cooling internal bores may also provide additional benefits to offset stress such as supplying food to thermally stressed corals, reducing stress due to ultraviolet radiation and/or low salinity, and delivering coral larvae from deeper reefs not impacted by surface thermal stress. Thus, the presence of internal bores might be an important factor locally in the resilience of select coral reefs facing increased thermal stress.     

Coral reef resilience to thermal stress in the Eastern Tropical Pacific

Coral reefs worldwide are threatened by thermal stress caused by climate change. Especially devastating periods of coral loss frequently occur during El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events originating in the Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP). El Niño‐induced thermal stress is considered the primary threat to ETP coral reefs. An increase in the frequency and intensity of ENSO events predicted in the coming decades threatens a pan‐tropical collapse of coral reefs. During the 1982–1983 El Niño, most reefs in the Galapagos Islands collapsed, and many more in the region were decimated by massive coral bleaching and mortality. However, after repeated thermal stress disturbances, such as those caused by the 1997–1998 El Niño, ETP corals reefs have demonstrated regional persistence and resiliency. Using a 44 year dataset (1970–2014) of live coral cover from the ETP, we assess whether ETP reefs exhibit the same decline as seen globally for other reefs. Also, we compare the ETP live coral cover rate of change with data from the maximum Degree Heating Weeks experienced by these reefs to assess the role of thermal stress on coral reef survival. We find that during the period 1970–2014, ETP coral cover exhibited temporary reductions following major ENSO events, but no overall decline. Further, we find that ETP reef recovery patterns allow coral to persist under these El Niño‐stressed conditions, often recovering from these events in 10–15 years. Accumulative heat stress explains 31% of the overall annual rate of change of living coral cover in the ETP. This suggests that ETP coral reefs have adapted to thermal extremes to date, and may have the ability to adapt to near‐term future climate‐change thermal anomalies. These findings for ETP reef resilience may provide general insights for the future of coral reef survival and recovery elsewhere under intensifying El Niño scenarios.     

Skeletal records of community-level bleaching in Porites corals from Palau

Tropical Pacific sea surface temperature is projected to rise an additional 2–3 °C by the end of this century, driving an increase in the frequency and intensity of coral bleaching. With significant global coral reef cover already lost due to bleaching-induced mortality, efforts are underway to identify thermally tolerant coral communities that might survive projected warming. Massive, long-lived corals accrete skeletal bands of anomalously high density in response to episodes of thermal stress. These “stress bands” are potentially valuable proxies for thermal tolerance, but to date their application to questions of community bleaching history has been limited. Ecological surveys recorded bleaching of coral communities across the Palau archipelago during the 1998 and 2010 warm events. Between 2011 and 2015, we extracted skeletal cores from living Porites colonies at 10 sites spanning barrier reef and lagoon environments and quantified the proportion of stress bands present in each population during bleaching years. Across Palau, the prevalence of stress bands tracked the severity of thermal stress, with more stress bands occurring in 1998 (degree heating weeks = 13.57 °C-week) than during the less severe 2010 event (degree heating weeks = 4.86 °C-week). Stress band prevalence also varied by reef type, as more corals on the exposed barrier reef formed stress bands than did corals from sheltered lagoon environments. Comparison of Porites stress band prevalence with bleaching survey data revealed a strong correlation between percent community bleaching and the proportion of colonies with stress bands in each year. Conversely, annual calcification rates did not decline consistently during bleaching years nor did annually resolved calcification histories always track interannual variability in temperature. Our data suggest that stress bands in massive corals contain valuable information about spatial and temporal trends in coral reef bleaching and can aid in conservation efforts to identify temperature-tolerant coral reef communities.

     

Catastrophic mortality on inshore coral reefs of the Florida Keys due to severe low‐temperature stress

Coral reefs of the Florida Keys typically experience seasonal temperatures of 20–31 °C. Deviation outside this range causes physiological impairment of reef‐building corals, potentially leading to coral colony death. In January and February 2010, two closely spaced cold fronts, possibly driven by an unusually extreme Arctic Oscillation, caused sudden and severe seawater temperature declines in the Florida Keys. Inshore coral reefs [e.g., Admiral Reef (ADM)] experienced lower sustained temperatures (i.e., < 12 °C) than those further offshore [e.g., Little Grecian Reef (LG), minimum temperature = 17.2 °C]. During February and March 2010, we surveyed ADM and observed a mass die‐off of reef‐building corals, whereas 12 km away LG did not exhibit coral mortality. We subsequently measured the physiological effects of low‐temperature stress on three common reef‐building corals (i.e., Montastraea faveolata, Porites astreoides, and Siderastrea siderea) over a range of temperatures that replicated the inshore cold‐water anomaly (i.e., from 20 to 16 to 12 °C and back to 20 °C). Throughout the temperature modulations, coral respiration as well as endosymbiont gross photosynthesis and maximum quantum efficiency of photosystem II were measured. In addition, Symbiodinium genotypic identity, cell densities, and chlorophyll a content were determined at the beginning and conclusion of the experiment. All corals were significantly affected at 12 °C, but species‐specific physiological responses were found indicating different coral and/or Symbiodinium cold tolerances. Montastraea faveolata and P. astreoides appeared to be most negatively impacted because, upon return to 20 °C, significant reductions in gross photosynthesis and dark respiration persisted. Siderastrea siderea, however, readily recovered to pre‐treatment rates of dark respiration and gross photosynthesis. Visual surveys of inshore reefs corroborated these results, with S. siderea being minimally affected by the cold‐water anomaly, whereas M. faveolata and P. astreoides exhibited nearly 100% mortality. This study highlights the importance of understanding the physiological attributes of genotypically distinct coral‐Symbiodinium symbioses that contribute to tolerance, recovery, and consequences to an environmental perturbation. These data also document effects of a rarely studied environmental stressor, possibly initiated by remote global climate events, on coral‐Symbiodinium symbioses and coral reef communities.     

Augmented coral reef monitoring using a stationary reef monitoring system

Coral reef monitoring is a reliable tool to assess the effect of climate change as corals are sensitive to increases in water temperatures between 30 °C and 35 °C resulting in bleaching - a whitening process when the corals lose their color and the reefs begin to die. Existing satellite-based monitoring products facilitate coral bleaching monitoring over large spatial scales, but their use in predicting local scale stress that influences the bleaching severity across reefs is limited. In this paper, we describe a Stationary Reef Monitoring System (SRMS) that monitors the time evolution of coral reefs through the photography of nearby coral clusters. Simultaneously, the SRMS measures and records environmental parameters such as temperature, solar irradiance (PAR), and salinity in the waters surrounding the coral colonies. When deployed in the sea, the SRMS detected a 0.1–0.4 °C variability in temperature between the in situ and satellite datasets. The SRMS uses color photography along with quantitative data on environmental parameters to monitor the health of corals and eliminates the need for physical/visual verification of coral health by a diver. By this approach, one can determine the stress thresholds of corals and identify the vulnerable and resilient reefs so as to prioritize conservation efforts.     

Seasonal variation of Sargassum ilicifolium (Phaeophyceae) growth on equatorial coral reefs

Temporal and spatial variations in Sargassum ilicifolium thallus density and length were investigated on equatorial coral reefs in Singapore from November 2011 to October 2012. Thalli density varied little throughout the year, however, we found strong seasonal patterns in thallus length and identified temperature as the significant driver. Sargassum ilicifolium reached maximum length in December (110.39 ± 2.37 cm) during periods of cooler water temperatures, and minimum length in May (9.88 ± 0.48 cm) during periods of warmer water temperatures. Significant spatial variation was also observed for both thallus density and length of S. ilicifolium among reefs. Within reefs, densities of S. ilicifolium were higher on reef flats (20.40 ± 0.40 individuals · 0.25 m^?2) compared to upper reef slopes (5.66 ± 0.23 individuals · 0.25 m^?2). Our findings highlight that marked seasonality in the growth of canopy‐forming macroalgae can occur within equatorial reef systems where temperature ranges are restricted (<3°C).     

Corals in the hottest reefs in the world exhibit symbiont fidelity not flexibility

Reef‐building corals are at risk of extinction from ocean warming. While some corals can enhance their thermal limits by associating with dinoflagellate photosymbionts of superior stress tolerance, the extent to which symbiont communities will reorganize under increased warming pressure remains unclear. Here we show that corals in the hottest reefs in the world in the Persian Gulf maintain associations with the same symbionts across 1.5 years despite extreme seasonal warming and acute heat stress (≥35°C). Persian Gulf corals predominantly associated with Cladocopium (clade C) and most also hosted Symbiodinium (clade A) and/or Durusdinium (clade D). This is in contrast to the neighbouring and milder Oman Sea, where corals associated with Durusdinium and only a minority hosted background levels of Cladocopium. During acute heat stress, the higher prevalence of Symbiodinium and Durusdinium in bleached versus nonbleached Persian Gulf corals indicates that genotypes of these background genera did not confer bleaching resistance. Within symbiont genera, the majority of ITS2 rDNA type profiles were unique to their respective coral species, confirming the existence of host‐specific symbiont lineages. Notably, further differentiation among Persian Gulf sites demonstrates that symbiont populations are either isolated or specialized over tens to hundreds of kilometres. Thermal tolerance across coral species was associated with the prevalence of a single ITS2 intragenomic sequence variant (C3gulf), definitive of the Cladocopium thermophilum group. The abundance of C3gulf was highest in bleaching‐resistant corals and at warmer sites, potentially indicating a specific symbiont genotype (or set of genotypes) that may play a role in thermal tolerance that warrants further investigation. Together, our findings indicate that co‐evolution of host–Symbiodiniaceae partnerships favours fidelity rather than flexibility in extreme environments and under future warming.     

Thermal refugia against coral bleaching throughout the northern Red Sea

Tropical reefs have been impacted by thermal anomalies caused by global warming that induced coral bleaching and mortality events globally. However, there have only been very few recordings of bleaching within the Red Sea despite covering a latitudinal range of 15° and consequently it has been considered a region that is less sensitive to thermal anomalies. We therefore examined historical patterns of sea surface temperature (SST) and associated anomalies (1982–2012) and compared warming trends with a unique compilation of corresponding coral bleaching records from throughout the region. These data indicated that the northern Red Sea has not experienced mass bleaching despite intensive Degree Heating Weeks (DHW) of >15°C‐weeks. Severe bleaching was restricted to the central and southern Red Sea where DHWs have been more frequent, but far less intense (DHWs <4°C‐weeks). A similar pattern was observed during the 2015–2016 El Niño event during which time corals in the northern Red Sea did not bleach despite high thermal stress (i.e. DHWs >8°C‐weeks), and bleaching was restricted to the central and southern Red Sea despite the lower thermal stress (DHWs < 8°C‐weeks). Heat stress assays carried out in the northern (Hurghada) and central (Thuwal) Red Sea on four key reef‐building species confirmed different regional thermal susceptibility, and that central Red Sea corals are more sensitive to thermal anomalies as compared to those from the north. Together, our data demonstrate that corals in the northern Red Sea have a much higher heat tolerance than their prevailing temperature regime would suggest. In contrast, corals from the central Red Sea are close to their thermal limits, which closely match the maximum annual water temperatures. The northern Red Sea harbours reef‐building corals that live well below their bleaching thresholds and thus we propose that the region represents a thermal refuge of global importance.     

Global assessment of coral bleaching and required rates of adaptation under climate change

Elevated ocean temperatures can cause coral bleaching, the loss of colour from reef‐building corals because of a breakdown of the symbiosis with the dinoflagellate Symbiodinium. Recent studies have warned that global climate change could increase the frequency of coral bleaching and threaten the long‐term viability of coral reefs. These assertions are based on projecting the coarse output from atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (GCMs) to the local conditions around representative coral reefs. Here, we conduct the first comprehensive global assessment of coral bleaching under climate change by adapting the NOAA Coral Reef Watch bleaching prediction method to the output of a low‐ and high‐climate sensitivity GCM. First, we develop and test algorithms for predicting mass coral bleaching with GCM‐resolution sea surface temperatures for thousands of coral reefs, using a global coral reef map and 1985–2002 bleaching prediction data. We then use the algorithms to determine the frequency of coral bleaching and required thermal adaptation by corals and their endosymbionts under two different emissions scenarios. The results indicate that bleaching could become an annual or biannual event for the vast majority of the world's coral reefs in the next 30–50 years without an increase in thermal tolerance of 0.2–1.0°C per decade. The geographic variability in required thermal adaptation found in each model and emissions scenario suggests that coral reefs in some regions, like Micronesia and western Polynesia, may be particularly vulnerable to climate change. Advances in modelling and monitoring will refine the forecast for individual reefs, but this assessment concludes that the global prognosis is unlikely to change without an accelerated effort to stabilize atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations.     

Reef‐coral refugia in a rapidly changing ocean

This study sought to identify climate‐change thermal‐stress refugia for reef corals in the Indian and Pacific Oceans. A species distribution modeling approach was used to identify refugia for 12 coral species that differed considerably in their local response to thermal stress. We hypothesized that the local response of coral species to thermal stress might be similarly reflected as a regional response to climate change. We assessed the contemporary geographic range of each species and determined their temperature and irradiance preferences using a k‐fold algorithm to randomly select training and evaluation sites. That information was applied to downscaled outputs of global climate models to predict where each species is likely to exist by the year 2100. Our model was run with and without a 1 °C capacity to adapt to the rising ocean temperature. The results show a positive exponential relationship between the current area of habitat that coral species occupy and the predicted area of habitat that they will occupy by 2100. There was considerable decoupling between scales of response, however, and with further ocean warming some ‘winners’ at local scales will likely become ‘losers’ at regional scales. We predicted that nine of the 12 species examined will lose 24–50% of their current habitat. Most reductions are predicted to occur between the latitudes 5–15°, in both hemispheres. Yet when we modeled a 1 °C capacity to adapt, two ubiquitous species, Acropora hyacinthus and Acropora digitifera, were predicted to retain much of their current habitat. By contrast, the thermally tolerant Porites lobata is expected to increase its current distribution by 14%, particularly southward along the east and west coasts of Australia. Five areas were identified as Indian Ocean refugia, and seven areas were identified as Pacific Ocean refugia for reef corals under climate change. All 12 of these reef‐coral refugia deserve high‐conservation status.     

Predicting coral bleaching hotspots: the role of regional variability in thermal stress and potential adaptation rates

Sea surface temperature fields (1870–2100) forced by CO₂-induced climate change under the IPCC SRES A1B CO₂ scenario, from three World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (WCRP CMIP3) models (CCSM3, CSIRO MK 3.5, and GFDL CM 2.1), were used to examine how coral sensitivity to thermal stress and rates of adaption affect global projections of coral-reef bleaching. The focus of this study was two-fold, to: (1) assess how the impact of Degree-Heating-Month (DHM) thermal stress threshold choice affects potential bleaching predictions and (2) examine the effect of hypothetical adaptation rates of corals to rising temperature. DHM values were estimated using a conventional threshold of 1°C and a variability-based threshold of 2σ above the climatological maximum Coral adaptation rates were simulated as a function of historical 100-year exposure to maximum annual SSTs with a dynamic rather than static climatological maximum based on the previous 100 years, for a given reef cell. Within CCSM3 simulations, the 1°C threshold predicted later onset of mild bleaching every 5 years for the fraction of reef grid cells where 1°C > 2σ of the climatology time series of annual SST maxima (1961–1990). Alternatively, DHM values using both thresholds, with CSIRO MK 3.5 and GFDL CM 2.1 SSTs, did not produce drastically different onset timing for bleaching every 5 years. Across models, DHMs based on 1°C thermal stress threshold show the most threatened reefs by 2100 could be in the Central and Western Equatorial Pacific, whereas use of the variability-based threshold for DHMs yields the Coral Triangle and parts of Micronesia and Melanesia as bleaching hotspots. Simulations that allow corals to adapt to increases in maximum SST drastically reduce the rates of bleaching. These findings highlight the importance of considering the thermal stress threshold in DHM estimates as well as potential adaptation models in future coral bleaching projections.     

Coral mortality associated with thermal fluctuations in the Phoenix Islands, 2002�C2005

The Phoenix Islands (Republic of Kiribati, 172–170°W and 2.5–5°S) experience intra- and inter-annual sea surface temperature variability of ≈2°C and have few local anthropogenic impacts. From July 2002, a thermal stress event occurred, which peaked at 21 Degree Heating Weeks (DHW) in January 2003 and persisted for 4 years. Such thermal stress was greater than any thermal event reported in the coral reef literature. Reef surveys were conducted in July 2000, June 2002, and May 2005, for six of the eight islands. Sampling was stratified by exposure (windward, leeward, and lagoon) and depth (5, 10, 15, and 25 m). The thermal stress event caused mass coral mortality, and coral cover declined by approximately 60% between 2002 and 2005. However, mortality varied among sites (12–100%) and among islands (42–79%) and varied in accordance with the presence of a lagoon, island size, and windward vs. leeward exposure. Leeward reefs experienced the highest and most consistent decline in coral cover. Island size and the presence of a lagoon showed positive correlations with coral mortality, most likely because of the longer water residence time enhancing heating. Windward reefs showed cooler conditions than leeward reefs. Recently dead corals were observed at depths >35 m on windward and >45 m on leeward reefs. Between-island variation in temperature had no effect on between-island variation in coral mortality. Mortality levels reported here were comparable to those reported for the most extreme thermal stress events of 9–10 DHW in other regions. These results highlight the high degree of acclimation and/or adaptation of the corals in the Phoenix Islands to their local temperature regime, and their consequent vulnerability to anomalous events. Moreover, the results suggest the need to adjust thermal stress calculations to reflect local temperature variation.     

Iron Availability Modulates the Response of Endosymbiotic Dinoflagellates to Heat Stress

Warming and nutrient limitation are stressors known to weaken the health of microalgae. In situations of stress, access to energy reserves can minimize physiological damage. Because of its widespread requirements in biochemical processes, iron is an important trace metal, especially for photosynthetic organisms. Lowered iron availability in oceans experiencing rising temperatures may contribute to the thermal sensitivity of reef‐building corals, which rely on mutualisms with dinoflagellates to survive. To test the influence of iron concentration on thermal sensitivity, the physiological responses of cultured symbiotic dinoflagellates (genus Breviolum; family Symbiodiniaceae) were evaluated when exposed to increasing temperatures (26 to 30°C) and iron concentrations ranging from replete (500 pM Fe’) to limiting (50 pM Fe’) under a diurnal light cycle with saturating radiance. Declines in photosynthetic efficiency at elevated temperatures indicated sensitivity to heat stress. Furthermore, five times the amount of iron was needed to reach exponential growth during heat stress (50 pM Fe′ at 26–28°C vs. 250 pM Fe′ at 30°C). In treatments where exponential growth was reached, Breviolum psygmophilum grew faster than B.minutum, possibly due to greater cellular contents of iron and other trace metals. The metal composition of B.psygmophilum shifted only at the highest temperature (30°C), whereas changes in B.minutum were observed at lower temperatures (28°C). The influence of iron availability in modulating each alga’s response to thermal stress suggests the importance of trace metals to the health of coral‐algal mutualisms. Ultimately, a greater ability to acquire scarce metals may improve the tolerance of corals to physiological stressors and contribute to the differences in performance associated with hosting one symbiont species over another.