Extinction hazards in experimental Daphnia magna populations: effects of genotype diversity and environmental variation

Extinction is ubiquitous in natural systems and the ultimate fate of all biological populations. However, the factors that contribute to population extinction are still poorly understood, particularly genetic diversity and composition. A laboratory experiment was conducted to examine the influences of environmental variation and genotype diversity on persistence in experimental Daphnia magna populations. Populations were initiated in two blocks with one, two, three, or six randomly selected and equally represented genotypes, fed and checked for extinction daily, and censused twice weekly over a period of 170 days. Our results show no evidence for an effect of the number of genotypes in a population on extinction hazard. Environmental variation had a strong effect on hazards in both experimental blocks, but the direction of the effect differed between blocks. In the first block, variable environments hastened extinction, while in the second block, hazards were reduced under variable food input. This occurred despite greater fluctuations in population size in variable environments in the second block of our experiment. Our results conflict with previous studies, where environmental variation consistently increased extinction risk. They are also at odds with previous studies in other systems that documented significant effects of genetic diversity on population persistence. We speculate that the lack of sexual reproduction, or the phenotypic similarity among our experimental lines, might underlie the lack of a significant effect of genotype diversity in our study.     

Approximate Bayesian estimation of extinction rate in the Finnish Daphnia magna metapopulation

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is useful for parameterizing complex models in population genetics. In this study, ABC was applied to simultaneously estimate parameter values for a model of metapopulation coalescence and test two alternatives to a strict metapopulation model in the well‐studied network of Daphnia magna populations in Finland. The models shared four free parameters: the subpopulation genetic diversity (θ_S), the rate of gene flow among patches (4Nm), the founding population size (N₀) and the metapopulation extinction rate (e) but differed in the distribution of extinction rates across habitat patches in the system. The three models had either a constant extinction rate in all populations (strict metapopulation), one population that was protected from local extinction (i.e. a persistent source), or habitat‐specific extinction rates drawn from a distribution with specified mean and variance. Our model selection analysis favoured the model including a persistent source population over the two alternative models. Of the closest 750 000 data sets in Euclidean space, 78% were simulated under the persistent source model (estimated posterior probability = 0.769). This fraction increased to more than 85% when only the closest 150 000 data sets were considered (estimated posterior probability = 0.774). Approximate Bayesian computation was then used to estimate parameter values that might produce the observed set of summary statistics. Our analysis provided posterior distributions for e that included the point estimate obtained from previous data from the Finnish D. magna metapopulation. Our results support the use of ABC and population genetic data for testing the strict metapopulation model and parameterizing complex models of demography.     

Shift of grey seal subspecies boundaries in response to climate,culling and conservation

Identifying the processes that drive changes in the abundance and distribution of natural populations is a central theme in ecology and evolution. Many species of marine mammals have experienced dramatic changes in abundance and distribution due to climatic fluctuations and anthropogenic impacts. However, thanks to conservation efforts, some of these species have shown remarkable population recovery and are now recolonizing their former ranges. Here, we use zooarchaeological, demographic and genetic data to examine processes of colonization, local extinction and recolonization of the two northern European grey seal subspecies inhabiting the Baltic Sea and North Sea. The zooarchaeological and genetic data suggest that the two subspecies diverged shortly after the formation of the Baltic Sea approximately 4200 years bp , probably through a gradual shift to different breeding habitats and phenologies. By comparing genetic data from 19th century pre‐extinction material with that from seals currently recolonizing their past range, we observed a marked spatiotemporal shift in subspecies boundaries, with increasing encroachment of North Sea seals on areas previously occupied by the Baltic Sea subspecies. Further, both demographic and genetic data indicate that the two subspecies have begun to overlap geographically and are hybridizing in a narrow contact zone. Our findings provide new insights into the processes of colonization, extinction and recolonization and have important implications for the management of grey seals across northern Europe.     

On the origin of the Norwegian lemming

The Pleistocene glacial cycles resulted in significant changes in species distributions, and it has been discussed whether this caused increased rates of population divergence and speciation. One species that is likely to have evolved during the Pleistocene is the Norwegian lemming (Lemmus lemmus). However, the origin of this species, both in terms of when and from what ancestral taxon it evolved, has been difficult to ascertain. Here, we use ancient DNA recovered from lemming remains from a series of Late Pleistocene and Holocene sites to explore the species' evolutionary history. The results revealed considerable genetic differentiation between glacial and contemporary samples. Moreover, the analyses provided strong support for a divergence time prior to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), therefore likely ruling out a postglacial colonization of Scandinavia. Consequently, it appears that the Norwegian lemming evolved from a small population that survived the LGM in an ice‐free Scandinavian refugium.     

Underestimated ranges and overlooked refuges from amphibian chytridiomycosis

Aim

Accurately documenting and predicting declines and shifts in species’ distributions is fundamental for implementing effective conservation strategies and directing future research; species distribution models (SDM) have become a powerful tool for such work. Nevertheless, much of the data used to create these models are opportunistic and often violate some of their basic assumptions. We use amphibian declines and extinctions linked to the fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) to examine how sampling biases in data collection can affect what we know of this disease and its effect on amphibians in the wild.

Location

Queensland, Australia.

Methods

We developed a distribution model for Bd incorporating known locality records for Bd and a subset of climatic variables that should correctly characterize its distribution. We tested this (original) model with additional surveys, recorded new Bd observations in novel environments and reran the distribution model. We then investigated the difference between the original and new models, and used frog abundance and infection status data from two of these new localities to look at the susceptibility of the torrent frog Litoria nannotis to chytridiomycosis.

Results

While largely correct, the original SDM underestimated the distribution of Bd; sampling in ‘unsuitable’ drier environments discovered abundant populations of susceptible frogs with pathogen prevalences of up to 100%. The validation surveys further uncovered a new population of the frog Litoria lorica coexisting with the pathogen; this species was previously believed to be an extinct rain forest endemic.

Main conclusion

Our results indicate that SDMs constructed using opportunistically collected data can be biased if species are not at equilibrium with their environment or because environmental gradients have not been adequately sampled. For disease ecology, the better estimations of pathogen distribution may lead to the discovery of new populations persisting at the edge of their range, which has important implications for the conservation of species threatened by chytridiomycosis.

     

Ancient DNA reveals differences in behaviour and sociality between brown bears and extinct cave bears

Ancient DNA studies have revolutionized the study of extinct species and populations, providing insights on phylogeny, phylogeography, admixture and demographic history. However, inferences on behaviour and sociality have been far less frequent. Here, we investigate the complete mitochondrial genomes of extinct Late Pleistocene cave bears and middle Holocene brown bears that each inhabited multiple geographically proximate caves in northern Spain. In cave bears, we find that, although most caves were occupied simultaneously, each cave almost exclusively contains a unique lineage of closely related haplotypes. This remarkable pattern suggests extreme fidelity to their birth site in cave bears, best described as homing behaviour, and that cave bears formed stable maternal social groups at least for hibernation. In contrast, brown bears do not show any strong association of mitochondrial lineage and cave, suggesting that these two closely related species differed in aspects of their behaviour and sociality. This difference is likely to have contributed to cave bear extinction, which occurred at a time in which competition for caves between bears and humans was likely intense and the ability to rapidly colonize new hibernation sites would have been crucial for the survival of a species so dependent on caves for hibernation as cave bears. Our study demonstrates the potential of ancient DNA to uncover patterns of behaviour and sociality in ancient species and populations, even those that went extinct many tens of thousands of years ago.     

Parasite in peril? A new species of mite in the genus Ophiomegistus Banks (Parasitiformes: Paramegistidae) on an endangered host,the pygmy bluetongue lizard Tiliqua adelaidensis (Peters) (Squamata: Scincidae)

Host‐parasite relationships are generally understudied in wild populations but have a potential to influence host population dynamics and the broader ecosystem, which becomes particularly important when the host is endangered. Herein we describe a new species of parasitic mite from the genus Ophiomegistus (Parasitiformes: Mesostigmata: Paramegistidae) of an endangered South Australian skink; the pygmy bluetongue lizard (Tiliqua adelaidensis). Adult mites were observed on lizard hosts in three different host populations, among which prevalence varied. No temporal trend in prevalence was evident over two spring‐summer seasons of monitoring. We hypothesise that the reliance on burrows as refuges by T. adelaidensis may be essential for the completion of the mite life cycle and also for horizontal transmission. The conservation implications of not only its effect on the host, but also its potential status as an endangered species itself, are considered.     

Experimental demonstration of accelerated extinction in source‐sink metapopulations

Population extinction is a fundamental ecological process which may be aggravated by the exchange of organisms between productive (source) and unproductive (sink) habitat patches. The extent to which such source‐sink exchange affects extinction rates is unknown. We conducted an experiment in which metapopulation effects could be distinguished from source‐sink effects in laboratory populations of Daphnia magna. Time‐to‐extinction in this experiment was maximized at intermediate levels of habitat fragmentation, which is consistent with a minority of theoretical models. These results provided a baseline for comparison with experimental treatments designed to detect effects of concentrating resources in source patches. These treatments showed that source‐sink configurations increased population variability (the coefficient of variation in abundance) and extinction hazard compared with homogeneous environments. These results suggest that where environments are spatially heterogeneous, accurate assessments of extinction risk will require understanding the exchange of organisms among population sources and sinks. Such heterogeneity may be the norm rather than the exception because of both the intrinsic heterogeneity naturally exhibited by ecosystems and increasing habitat fragmentation by human activity.     

Data uncertainty and the selectivity of extinction risk in freshwater invertebrates

Aim

To investigate the impact of different treatments of the IUCN Data Deficient (DD) category on taxonomic and geographical patterns of extinction risk in crayfish, freshwater crabs and dragonflies.

Location

Global.

Methods

We used contingency tables to evaluate taxonomic and geographical selectivity of data deficiency and extinction risk for three invertebrate taxonomic groups (crayfish, dragonflies and damselflies, and freshwater crabs) based on their IUCN Red List status. We investigated differences in patterns of data deficiency and extinction risk among taxonomic families, geographical realms and taxonomic families within geographical realms for each of the three groups. At each level, we evaluated the impact of uncertainty conferred by the conservation status of DD species on extinction risk patterns exhibited by that group. We evaluated three scenarios: excluding DD species, treating all DD species as non‐threatened and treating all DD species as threatened.

Results

At the global scale, DD species were taxonomically non‐randomly distributed in freshwater crabs and dragonflies, and geographically non‐randomly distributed in all three taxonomic groups. Although the presence of under‐ or over‐threatened families and biogeographical realms was generally unchanging across scenarios, the strength of taxonomic and geographical selectivity of extinction risk varied. There was little consistent evidence for taxonomic selectivity of extinction risk at sub‐global scales in freshwater crabs and dragonflies, either among biogeographical realms or among scenarios.

Main conclusions

Global patterns of taxonomic selectivity and geographical selectivity were generally consistent with one another and robust to different treatments of DD species. However, sub‐global scale conservation prioritization from these types of data sets will require increased investment to make accurate decisions. Given the current levels of data uncertainty, the relative importance of biological characteristics and threatening processes in driving extinctions in freshwater invertebrates cannot be easily determined. We recommend that DD species should be given high research priority to determine their true status.     

Impacts of climate change on avian populations

This review focuses on the impacts of climate change on population dynamics. I introduce the MUP (Measuring, Understanding, and Predicting) approach, which provides a general framework where an enhanced understanding of climate‐population processes, along with improved long‐term data, are merged into coherent projections of future population responses to climate change. This approach can be applied to any species, but this review illustrates its benefit using birds as examples. Birds are one of the best‐studied groups and a large number of studies have detected climate impacts on vital rates (i.e., life history traits, such as survival, maturation, or breeding, affecting changes in population size and composition) and population abundance. These studies reveal multifaceted effects of climate with direct, indirect, time‐lagged, and nonlinear effects. However, few studies integrate these effects into a climate‐dependent population model to understand the respective role of climate variables and their components (mean state, variability, extreme) on population dynamics. To quantify how populations cope with climate change impacts, I introduce a new universal variable: the ‘population robustness to climate change.’ The comparison of such robustness, along with prospective and retrospective analysis may help to identify the major climate threats and characteristics of threatened avian species. Finally, studies projecting avian population responses to future climate change predicted by IPCC‐class climate models are rare. Population projections hinge on selecting a multiclimate model ensemble at the appropriate temporal and spatial scales and integrating both radiative forcing and internal variability in climate with fully specified uncertainties in both demographic and climate processes.     

Evidence of constant diversification punctuated by a mass extinction in the African cycads

The recent evidence that extant cycads are not living fossils triggered a renewed search for a better understanding of their evolutionary history. In this study, we investigated the evolutionary diversification history of the genus Encephalartos, a monophyletic cycad endemic to Africa. We found an antisigmoidal pattern with a plateau and punctual explosive radiation. This pattern is typical of a constant radiation with mass extinction. The rate shift that we found may therefore be a result of a rapid recolonization of niches that have been emptied owing to mass extinction. Because the explosive radiation occurred during the transition Pliocene–Pleistocene, we argued that the processes might have been climatically mediated.     

Do pathogens reduce genetic diversity of their hosts? Variable effects of sylvatic plague in black‐tailed prairie dogs

Introduced diseases can cause dramatic declines in—and even the loss of—natural populations. Extirpations may be followed by low recolonization rates, leading to inbreeding and a loss of genetic variation, with consequences on population viability. Conversely, extirpations may create vacant habitat patches that individuals from multiple source populations can colonize, potentially leading to an influx of variation. We tested these alternative hypotheses by sampling 15 colonies in a prairie dog metapopulation during 7 years that encompassed an outbreak of sylvatic plague, providing the opportunity to monitor genetic diversity before, during and after the outbreak. Analysis of nine microsatellite loci revealed that within the metapopulation, there was no change in diversity. However, within extirpated colonies, patterns varied: In half of the colonies, allelic richness after recovery was less than the preplague conditions, and in the other half, richness was greater than the preplague conditions. Finally, analysis of variation within individuals revealed that prairie dogs present in recolonized colonies had higher heterozygosity than those present before plague. We confirmed plague survivorship in six founders; these individuals had significantly higher heterozygosity than expected by chance. Collectively, our results suggest that high immigration rates can maintain genetic variation at a regional scale despite simultaneous extirpations in spatially proximate populations. Thus, virulent diseases may increase genetic diversity of host populations by creating vacant habitats that allow an influx of genetic diversity. Furthermore, even highly virulent diseases may not eliminate individuals randomly; rather, they may selectively remove the most inbred individuals.     

Diverse earliest Triassic ostracod fauna of the non‐microbialite‐bearing shallow marine carbonates of the Yangou section,South China

Since diverse ostracod faunas in the immediate aftermath of the latest Permian mass extinction are mainly found within Permian–Triassic boundary microbialites (PTBMs), the idea of an ostracod ‘microbial‐related refuge’ has been proposed. Here, we report a diversified earliest Triassic ostracod fauna from the Yangou section in South China, where no PTBMs were deposited, providing evidence inconsistent with this ‘microbial‐related refuge’ hypothesis. In addition, a significant ostracod extinction is recorded, corresponding with the earliest Triassic mass extinction (ETME). This ETME of ostracods is associated with size increases and a length/height ratio (L/H) decrease, indicating varied evolutionary patterns of shape and size of ostracods through the Permian–Triassic (P‐Tr) extinction events. Although the nature of these biotic changes is somewhat unclear, the temporally varied ‘refuge zone’ scenario provides us with a window to reconstruct the environmental dynamics of ecosystem changes during the P‐Tr transition.     

Radiation capture and conversion efficiencies of Miscanthus sacchariflorus,M. sinensis and their naturally occurring hybrid M. × giganteus

Miscanthus is a rhizomatous C4 grass of great interest as a biofuel crop because it has the potential to produce high yields over a wide geographical area with low agricultural inputs on marginal land less suitable for food production. At the moment, a clonal interspecific hybrid Miscanthus × giganteus is the most widely cultivated and studied in Europe and the United States, but breeding programmes are developing newer more productive varieties. Here, we quantified the physiological processes relating to whole season yield in a replicated plot trial in Wales, UK. Light capture and conversion efficiency were parameterized for four carefully selected genotypes (M. sinensis, M. sacchariflorus and Miscanthus × giganteus). Differences in the canopy architecture in mature stands as measured by the extinction coefficient (k) were small (0.55–0.65). Sensitivity analysis on a mathematical model of Miscanthus was performed to quantify the accumulative intercepted photosynthetically active radiation (iPAR) in the growing season using (i) k, (ii) variation in the thermal responses of leaf expansion rate, (iii) base temperature for degree days and (iv) date start of canopy expansion. A 10% increase in k or leaf area per degree day both had a minimal effect on iPAR (3%). Decreasing base temperature from 10 to 9 °C gave an 8% increase in iPAR. If the starting date for canopy expansion was the same as shoot emergence date, then the iPAR increases by 12.5%. In M. × giganteus, the whole season above ground and total (including below ground) radiation‐use efficiency (RUE) ranged from 45% to 37% higher than the noninterspecific hybrid genotypes. The greater yields in the interspecific hybrid M. × giganteus are explained by the higher RUE and not by differences in iPAR or partitioning effects. Studying the mechanisms underlying this complex trait could have wide benefits for both fuel and food production.     

Minimum area thresholds for rattlesnakes and colubrid snakes on islands in the Gulf of California,Mexico

We expand a framework for estimating minimum area thresholds to elaborate biogeographic patterns between two groups of snakes (rattlesnakes and colubrid snakes) on islands in the western Gulf of California, Mexico. The minimum area thresholds for supporting single species versus coexistence of two or more species relate to hypotheses of the relative importance of energetic efficiency and competitive interactions within groups, respectively. We used ordinal logistic regression probability functions to estimate minimum area thresholds after evaluating the influence of island area, isolation, and age on rattlesnake and colubrid occupancy patterns across 83 islands. Minimum area thresholds for islands supporting one species were nearly identical for rattlesnakes and colubrids (~1.7 km²), suggesting that selective tradeoffs for distinctive life history traits between rattlesnakes and colubrids did not result in any clear advantage of one life history strategy over the other on islands. However, the minimum area threshold for supporting two or more species of rattlesnakes (37.1 km²) was over five times greater than it was for supporting two or more species of colubrids (6.7 km²). The great differences between rattlesnakes and colubrids in minimum area required to support more than one species imply that for islands in the Gulf of California relative extinction risks are higher for coexistence of multiple species of rattlesnakes and that competition within and between species of rattlesnakes is likely much more intense than it is within and between species of colubrids.     

Population viability analysis of Walia ibex (Capra walie) at Simien Mountains National Park (SMNP), Ethiopia

Population viability analysis (PVA) has been applied to the management of many threatened populations. The objective of this study was, therefore, to estimate the PVA of Walia ibex at the Simen Mountains National Park, in the north‐central highlands of Ethiopia, with respect to population growth parameters, the probability of the population reaching a lower extinction threshold and the mean time to extinction. Direct census of the population was carried out in 2009. Secondary census data were also collected from park authorities and the literature reviews. The result revealed that the estimates of the infinitesimal mean, μ (0.04117) was greater than the infinitesimal variance, σ² (0.0219). The probability that the population reaches the extinction threshold was very low (0.15%). The mean time required for the counts to decline from the existing population size to one individual animal was 160 years. But threatened species are adversely affected by changes in landscape. These changes can be brought by short‐ and long‐term human and climate change impacts, respectively. Therefore, with the absence of environmental and demographic stochasticity and, with the application of appropriate reproductions and habitat management, the population of Walia ibex will be viable and reaches its mean time of extinctions after 160 years.     

Limited contemporary gene flow and high self‐replenishment drives peripheral isolation in an endemic coral reef fish

Extensive ongoing degradation of coral reef habitats worldwide has lead to declines in abundance of coral reef fishes and local extinction of some species. Those most vulnerable are ecological specialists and endemic species. Determining connectivity between locations is vital to understanding recovery and long‐term persistence of these species following local extinction. This study explored population connectivity in the ecologically‐specialized endemic three‐striped butterflyfish (Chaetodon tricinctus) using mt and msatDNA (nuclear microsatellites) to distinguish evolutionary versus contemporary gene flow, estimate self‐replenishment and measure genetic diversity among locations at the remote Australian offshore coral reefs of Middleton Reef (MR), Elizabeth Reef (ER), Lord Howe Island (LHI), and Norfolk Island (NI). Mt and msatDNA suggested genetic differentiation of the most peripheral location (NI) from the remaining three locations (MR, ER, LHI). Despite high levels of mtDNA gene flow, there is limited msatDNA gene flow with evidence of high levels of self‐replenishment (≥76%) at all four locations. Taken together, this suggests prolonged population recovery times following population declines. The peripheral population (NI) is most vulnerable to local extinction due to its relative isolation, extreme levels of self‐replenishment (95%), and low contemporary abundance.