The impact of climate change on the structure of Pleistocene food webs across the mammoth steppe

Species interactions form food webs, impacting community structure and, potentially, ecological dynamics. It is likely that global climatic perturbations that occur over long periods of time have a significant influence on species interaction patterns. Here, we integrate stable isotope analysis and network theory to reconstruct patterns of trophic interactions for six independent mammalian communities that inhabited mammoth steppe environments spanning western Europe to eastern Alaska (Beringia) during the Late Pleistocene. We use a Bayesian mixing model to quantify the contribution of prey to the diets of local predators, and assess how the structure of trophic interactions changed across space and the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), a global climatic event that severely impacted mammoth steppe communities. We find that large felids had diets that were more constrained than those of co-occurring predators, and largely influenced by an increase in Rangifer abundance after the LGM. Moreover, the structural organization of Beringian and European communities strongly differed: compared with Europe, species interactions in Beringian communities before—and possibly after—the LGM were highly modular. We suggest that this difference in modularity may have been driven by the geographical insularity of Beringian communities.     

Projecting the impacts of climate change on skipjack tuna abundance and spatial distribution

Climate‐induced changes in the physical, chemical, and biological environment are expected to increasingly stress marine ecosystems, with important consequences for fisheries exploitation. Here, we use the APECOSM‐E numerical model (Apex Predator ECOSystem Model ‐ Estimation) to evaluate the future impacts of climate change on the physiology, spatial distribution, and abundance of skipjack tuna, the worldwide most fished species of tropical tuna. The main novelties of our approach lie in the mechanistic link between environmental factors, metabolic rates, and behavioral responses and in the fully three dimensional representation of habitat and population abundance. Physical and biogeochemical fields used to force the model are provided by the last generation of the IPSL‐CM5 Earth System Model run from 1990 to 2100 under a ‘business‐as‐usual’ scenario (RCP8.5). Our simulations show significant changes in the spatial distribution of skipjack tuna suitable habitat, as well as in their population abundance. The model projects deterioration of skipjack habitat in most tropical waters and an improvement of habitat at higher latitudes. The primary driver of habitat changes is ocean warming, followed by food density changes. Our projections show an increase of global skipjack biomass between 2010 and 2050 followed by a marked decrease between 2050 and 2095. Spawning rates are consistent with population trends, showing that spawning depends primarily on the adult biomass. On the other hand, growth rates display very smooth temporal changes, suggesting that the ability of skipjack to keep high metabolic rates in the changing environment is generally effective. Uncertainties related to our model spatial resolution, to the lack or simplification of key processes and to the climate forcings are discussed.     

Origins and implications of apid bees (Hymentopera: Apidae) in French Polynesia

Island plant–pollinator networks are typically simpler than their continental counterparts and this can make them less resilient to disturbance from exotic species. French Polynesia has a very low diversity of bees, but their status as either native or introduced species has been largely speculative. We combine previous studies with new DNA sequence data to show that 11 bee species have now been recorded for French Polynesia. Haplotype variation at the ‘barcode’ region of the mitochondrial gene cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI) for four of these species, Ceratina dentipes Freise, Xylocopa sonorina Smith, Braunsapis puangensis (Cockerell) and Amegilla pulchra (Smith), indicates that they all represent very recent introductions. Apis mellifera Linnaeus was a purposefully introduced species, and four megachilid species probably arrived due to human‐aided dispersal through maritime activities in the Pacific. The two remaining bee species, an unidentified partial specimen of a halictid bee and the colletid bee Hylaeus (P.) tuamotuensis Michener, are collectively known from only four specimens collected in the 1930s and their provenance is uncertain. French Polynesia therefore comprises a region where recently introduced bee species greatly overwhelm any possible native bee fauna. These introductions are likely to have major ecosystem impacts, including disruptions of existing plant–pollinator networks and facilitating the spread of weedy plant species, as well as positive impacts for agriculture. Future biosecurity initiatives need to consider these potential impacts and the likely routes of dispersal to effectively control any further unintended introductions.     

植被变化对气候的反馈机制及调节效应

植被通过光合作用固定大气中的CO₂来减缓温室效应,同时植被也通过改变地表能量收支影响温室效应。在过去的气候-植被研究中,大多关注气候变化对植被的影响,而植被对气候反馈的研究相对较少。植被通过调节地表能量收支、水通量等重要地气过程影响局地、区域乃至全球气候,在气候变化中的作用十分重要。因此,需要厘清植被对气候的反馈效应机制及其结果,并识别其地域差异。从生物地球物理和生物地球化学过程两方面分析植被与气候之间的作用机制,对全球及关键区域内植被变化对局地、区域乃至全球的气候反馈效应进行了系统总结：（1）生物地球物理反馈的区域特征明显,生物地球化学反馈则表现在全球尺度上,二者相互作用但难以统一;（2）植被破坏带来的气候影响在气温效应方面与生态系统的类型及地理分布相关：热带森林破坏带来增温效应,北方森林破坏带来降温效应,温带森林破坏则会通过增加森林反照率抵消丢失的固碳降温效应,气温效应表现不明显;（3）当前研究对关键过程机制考虑不够完善,不同研究方法的结果差异较大,且缺乏高质量观测数据的验证;同时考虑生物地球物理和生物地球化学的净气候反馈研究尚无法支撑植树造林对气候变化单一减缓作用的常规理解。本文可为科学评估植树造林对气候变化作用的方向与强度提供理论依据。     

Pleistocene climate change and phylogeographic structure of the Gymnocarpos przewalskii (Caryophyllaceae) in the northwest China: Evidence from plastid DNA,ITS sequences,and Microsatellite

Northwestern China has a wealth of endemic species, which has been hypothesized to be affected by the complex paleoclimatic and paleogeographic history during Quaternary. In this paper, we used Gymnocarpos przewalskii as a model to address the evolutionary history and current population genetic structure of species in northwestern China. We employed two chloroplast DNA fragments (rps16 and psbB‐psbI), one nuclear DNA fragment (ITS), and simple sequence repeat (SSRs) to investigate the spatial genetic pattern of G. przewalskii. High genetic diversity (cpDNA: h_S = 0.330, h_T = 0.866; ITS: h_S = 0.458, h_T = 0.872) was identified in almost all populations, and most of the population have private haplotypes. Moreover, multimodal mismatch distributions were observed and estimates of Tajima's D and Fu's FS tests did not identify significantly departures from neutrality, indicating that recent expansion of G. przewalskii was rejected. Thus, we inferred that G. przewalskii survived generally in northwestern China during the Pleistocene. All data together support the genotypes of G. przewalskii into three groups, consistent with their respective geographical distributions in the western regions—Tarim Basin, the central regions—Hami Basin and Hexi Corridor, and the eastern regions—Alxa Desert and Wulate Prairie. Divergence among most lineages of G. przewalskii occurred in the Pleistocene, and the range of potential distributions is associated with glacial cycles. We concluded that climate oscillation during Pleistocene significantly affected the distribution of the species.     

Genetically separate populations of the ocean‐skater Halobates sericeus (Heteroptera: Gerridae) have been maintained since the late Pleistocene

The oceanic water strider (or ocean‐skater) Halobates sericeus Eschscholtz has a disjunct distribution in the Pacific Ocean, with northern and southern populations widely separated by an equatorial zone. It is sensitive to sea surface conditions and, consequently, its distribution and population structure may provide an insight into environmental changes on the ocean surface on both recent and historical time scales. We assessed the genetic diversity and population structure of H. sericeus in the Pacific Ocean using three gene markers – cytochrome oxidase subunit I (COI), elongation factor 1α and internal transcribed spacer 1 (ITS‐1). These markers indicate that both populations are evolutionarily distinct with limited gene flow, having separated 20 000–50 000 years ago. This suggests that physical conditions and/or biotic interactions on the surface of the Pacific Ocean have provided significant barriers to gene flow since the late Pleistocene or earlier, creating biotic stability over large geographical and temporal scales in spite of a long history of global climate change. © 2012 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2012, 105 , 797–805.     

Effects of climate change and management on net climate impacts of production and utilization of energy biomass in Norway spruce with stable age‐class distribution

We studied the effects of climate change and forest management scenarios on net climate impacts (radiative forcing) of production and utilization of energy biomass, in a Norway spruce forest area over an 80‐year simulation period in Finnish boreal conditions. A stable age‐class distribution was used in model‐based analyses to identify purely the management effects under the current and changing climate (SRES B1 and A2 scenarios). The radiative forcing was calculated based on an integrated use of forest ecosystem model simulations and a life cycle assessment (LCA) tool. In this work, forest‐based energy was used to substitute coal, and current forest management (baseline management) was used as a reference management. In alternative management scenarios, the stocking was maintained 20% higher in thinning compared to the baseline management, and nitrogen fertilization was applied. Intensity of energy biomass harvest (e.g. logging residues, coarse roots and stumps) was varied in the final felling of the stands at the age of 80 years. Also, the economic profitability (NPV, 3% interest rate) of integrated production of timber and energy biomass was calculated for each management scenario. Our results showed that compared to the baseline management, climate benefits could be increased by maintaining higher stocking in thinning over rotation, using nitrogen fertilization and harvesting logging residues, stumps and coarse roots in the final felling. Under the gradually changing climate (in both SRES B1 and A2), the climate benefits were lower compared to the current climate. Trade‐offs between NPV and net climate impacts also existed.     

气候变化背景下定量解析生态工程对植被动态的影响研究方法概述

植被动态变化受气候和人类活动双重作用力的驱动。在气候变化的背景下,如何定量剖析人类活动在植被动态变化中的作用力,对增加植被生态系统碳储量和缓解气候变化具有重要意义。随着生态文明建设和环境保护意识的加强,就植被生态系统而言,生态工程作为一项巨大的人类活动,对植被影响的广度和深度日益加强。系统分析气候变化背景下生态工程对植被的生态效应影响,对后期生态恢复措施的制定和实施具有十分重要的理论指导意义。虽已有一些生态工程对植被影响的定量化研究方法,但不同方法之间的结果难以进行比较研究。比较探讨各定量研究方法的优缺点有利于推动植被驱动机制的研究,有助于恢复生态学和人类生态学的应用和发展。系统梳理了定量研究生态工程对植被动态的影响主要研究方法:回归分析、残差趋势分析、基于生物物理过程模型方法和阈值分割方法。对比发现,基于生物物理过程模型方法具有较高的应用潜力,趋势分析方法和阈值分割方法仍需进一步完善。目前,定量剖析生态工程对植被变化的影响研究主要侧重于模型模拟,野外实证研究和模型验证较为缺乏,是恢复生态学未来研究的重点和难点之一。     

呼伦贝尔沙地45年来气候变化及其对生态环境的影响

采用数理统计和对比分析方法,对近45年呼伦贝尔沙地气象观测资料和草场沙化、退化面积、植被状况等资料进行了分析。结果表明:呼伦贝尔沙地总体气候暖干化趋势显著;气温逐年升高、降水量减少、蒸发量增加和极端气候事件增多,使流动沙地面积不断增加,植被盖度下降。卫星遥感监测和全国沙漠化普查结果进一步表明,呼伦贝尔沙地的沙漠化正在扩展,生态环境正在恶化。逐年减少的大风日数和沙尘暴日数有利于该地区生态的保护与建设。20世纪80年代以来,沙区各级政府加大了对沙化的治理力度,沙地局部植被恢复较快。     

中国不同植被类型归一化植被指数对气候变化和人类活动的响应

不同植被类型对外界干扰和环境变化的敏感性不同。为厘清中国不同类型植被的动态变化特征及其对外界环境变化的响应,综合利用趋势分析、残差分析和情景模拟方法,在明确2000-2015年间我国不同植被类型归一化植被指数(NDVI)时空变化基础上,对气候变化和人类活动两大驱动要素在不同植被类型NDVI变化中的相对贡献进行了定量评估和归因。研究结果表明:(1)2000-2015年,我国植被NDVI整体呈增加趋势,且其空间占比高达84.1%。其中,森林植被的改善状况最佳,显著增加的面积占到了森林总面积的82.4%;而荒漠植被的改善状况相对较差,仅有22.3%的区域呈显著增加趋势。(2)人类活动在我国植被变化中占主导地位。植被改善区和植被退化区人类活动的相对贡献分别为76.4%和60.0%,且人类活动对植被的影响更多与管理方式而非土地利用类型转变有关。(3)不同类型植被对气候变化和人类活动的响应差异显著。对于植被改善区,除沼泽外,人类活动对各类型植被NDVI变化的贡献率均在70%以上,尤其是对农作物的贡献率最高,达到80.7%;对于植被退化区,人类活动影响较大的植被类型为沼泽和农作物,表明2000-2015年间我国沼泽受到了更强烈人类活动的负面影响。研究有助于增强对不同植被类型对全球变化响应机制的理解,并为促进生态建设和植被恢复工作的有效实施提供科学参考。     

上海市气候变化和人类活动对植被物候的影响

植被物候是气候和自然环境变化的综合指示器,同时也是研究植物生长发育与气候变化的重要参数。随着经济社会的发展夜间灯光兼具指示人类活动信息和光照强度的特点,成为研究城市生态系统和生态建设的热点。基于此,利用地理探测器分析方法和变量投影重要性指标,从时间和空间尺度上探究温度、降水、辐射和夜间灯光对2001—2020年上海市植被物候进行时空变化分析和归因分析,并结合城区和郊区的差异进一步分析夜间灯光和环境因子对物候的影响贡献。结果表明：2001—2020年上海市城区温度高于郊区约0.63℃,春季物候(start growth of season, SOS)提前郊区10d左右,秋季物候(end growth of season, EOS)推迟郊区7d左右,夜间灯光高于郊区2.9倍并且其重心向沿海方向显著偏移。空间尺度上夜间灯光对SOS的影响权重最大(q=0.15),并且辐射∩夜间灯光的组合驱动对城区和郊区的植被物候影响权重均最大(q_max=0.29)。时间尺度上SOS与温度的关系最密切,且随温度的增加而提前(平均R_温度=-0.24),EOS与夜间灯光的...     

呼伦贝尔沙地45年来气候变化及其对生态环境的影响水

采用数理统计和对比分析方法,对近45年呼伦贝尔沙地气象观测资料和草场沙化、退化面积、植被状况等资料进行了分析。结果表明：呼伦贝尔沙地总体气候暖干化趋势显著;气温逐年升高、降水量减少、蒸发量增加和极端气候事件增多,使流动沙地面积不断增加,植被盖度下降。卫星遥感监测和全国沙漠化普查结果进一步表明,呼伦贝尔沙地的沙漠化正在扩展,生态环境正在恶化。逐年减少的大风日数和沙尘暴日数有利于该地区生态的保护与建设。20世纪80年代以来,沙区各级政府加大了对沙化的治理力度,沙地局部植被恢复较快。     

Pleistocene evolutionary history of the Clouded Apollo (Parnassius mnemosyne): genetic signatures of climate cycles and a 'time-dependent' mitochondrial substitution rate

Genetic data are currently providing a large amount of new information on past distribution of species and are contributing to a new vision of Pleistocene ice ages. Nonetheless, an increasing number of studies on the 'time dependency' of mutation rates suggest that date assessments for evolutionary events of the Pleistocene might be overestimated. We analysed mitochondrial (mt) DNA (COI) sequence variation in 225 Parnassius mnemosyne individuals sampled across central and eastern Europe in order to assess (i) the existence of genetic signatures of Pleistocene climate shifts; and (ii) the timescale of demographic and evolutionary events. Our analyses reveal a phylogeographical pattern markedly influenced by the Pleistocene/Holocene climate shifts. Eastern Alpine and Balkan populations display comparatively high mtDNA diversity, suggesting multiple glacial refugia. On the other hand, three widely distributed and spatially segregated lineages occupy most of northern and eastern Europe, indicating postglacial recolonization from different refugial areas. We show that a conventional 'phylogenetic' substitution rate cannot account for the present distribution of genetic variation in this species, and we combine phylogeographical pattern and palaeoecological information in order to determine a suitable intraspecific rate through a Bayesian coalescent approach. We argue that our calibrated 'time-dependent' rate (0.096 substitutions/ million years), offers the most convincing time frame for the evolutionary events inferred from sequence data. When scaled by the new rate, estimates of divergence between Balkan and Alpine lineages point to c. 19 000 years before present (last glacial maximum), and parameters of demographic expansion for northern lineages are consistent with postglacial warming (5-11 000 years before present).     

Economic and ecological views on climate change mitigation with bioenergy and negative emissions

Climate stabilization scenarios emphasize the importance of land‐based mitigation to achieve ambitious mitigation goals. The stabilization scenarios informing the recent IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report suggest that bioenergy could contribute anywhere between 10 and 245 EJ to climate change mitigation in 2100. High deployment of bioenergy with low life cycle GHG emissions would enable ambitious climate stabilization futures and reduce demands on other sectors and options. Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) would even enable so‐called negative emissions, possibly in the order of magnitude of 50% of today's annual gross emissions. Here, I discuss key assumptions that differ between economic and ecological perspectives. I find that high future yield assumptions, plausible in stabilization scenarios, look less realistic when evaluated in biophysical metrics. Yield assumptions also determine the magnitude of counterfactual land carbon stock development and partially determine the potential of BECCS. High fertilizer input required for high yields would likely hasten ecosystem degradation. I conclude that land‐based mitigation strategies remain highly speculative; a constant iteration between synoptic integrated assessment models and more particularistic and fine‐grained approaches is a crucial precondition for capturing complex dynamics and biophysical constraints that are essential for comprehensive assessments.     

基于NDVI的三江源地区植被生长对气候变化和人类活动的响应研究

采用Spot VEGETATION 逐旬NDVI数据、1 ∶ 100万植被类型图和气象站资料,在掌握近10a三江源地区植被变化趋势基础上,分不同植被类型探讨植被生长对气候变化的响应机制,并通过分离气候要素与人类活动对NDVI的贡献,定量评估生态保护与建设工程的实施效果。结果表明,区域尺度上,三江源地区2001-2010年植被生长呈好转趋势,植被增长从东南向西北递减;在10a时间尺度上,气候变化是影响植被生长的决定性因素,但人类活动可在短期内加快植被变化速率,气候要素和人类活动对植被生长的贡献分别为79.32%和20.68%;降水和气温对植被生长的影响程度相当,其中受春季和秋季的降水和气温影响最大,尤其是植被生长季前后一个月(4月份和10月份)的气候条件;与林地和灌丛相比,高寒草地受气候条件的抑制作用更为明显,其中高寒草甸受气候变化的影响最大,NDVI与降水和气温均具有较高相关性,高寒草原受气温的影响比较大,而高山植被受降水的抑制作用更为明显;在气候条件利于植被生长的趋势下,2001-2010年三江源地区的人类活动对生态环境表现出正影响,实测NDVI_max与模拟NDVI_max之间的残差为0.0863,表明生态保护与建设行动取得初步成效,其中黄河源区东部和长江源区通天河两侧的生态恢复效益最为明显,而在唐古拉山、昆仑山、布青山、阿尼玛卿山等山脉的周边地区,人类活动对生态环境仍表现为负影响;时间尺度上人类活动对植被的正影响呈现出下降趋势,2001-2010年NDVI_max残差的回归斜率为-0.0039,表明生态项目实施的短期行为严重,生态建设的效果缺乏长效性。     

Reassessing regime shifts in the North Pacific: incremental climate change and commercial fishing are necessary for explaining decadal‐scale biological variability

In areas of the North Pacific that are largely free of overfishing, climate regime shifts – abrupt changes in modes of low‐frequency climate variability – are seen as the dominant drivers of decadal‐scale ecological variability. We assessed the ability of leading modes of climate variability [Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), Pacific‐North American Pattern (PNA), North Pacific Index (NPI), El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO)] to explain decadal‐scale (1965–2008) patterns of climatic and biological variability across two North Pacific ecosystems (Gulf of Alaska and Bering Sea). Our response variables were the first principle component (PC1) of four regional climate parameters [sea surface temperature (SST), sea level pressure (SLP), freshwater input, ice cover], and PCs 1–2 of 36 biological time series [production or abundance for populations of salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.), groundfish, herring (Clupea pallasii), shrimp, and jellyfish]. We found that the climate modes alone could not explain ecological variability in the study region. Both linear models (for climate PC1) and generalized additive models (for biology PC1–2) invoking only the climate modes produced residuals with significant temporal trends, indicating that the models failed to capture coherent patterns of ecological variability. However, when the residual climate trend and a time series of commercial fishery catches were used as additional candidate variables, resulting models of biology PC1–2 satisfied assumptions of independent residuals and out‐performed models constructed from the climate modes alone in terms of predictive power. As measured by effect size and Akaike weights, the residual climate trend was the most important variable for explaining biology PC1 variability, and commercial catch the most important variable for biology PC2. Patterns of climate sensitivity and exploitation history for taxa strongly associated with biology PC1–2 suggest plausible mechanistic explanations for these modeling results. Our findings suggest that, even in the absence of overfishing and in areas strongly influenced by internal climate variability, climate regime shift effects can only be understood in the context of other ecosystem perturbations.     

Late Pleistocene climate change promoted divergence between Picea asperata and P. crassifolia on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau through recent bottlenecks

Divergence during the early stage of speciation can be driven by a population bottleneck via reduced gene flow and enhanced lineage sorting. In this study, we aimed to examine whether such bottlenecks occurred during the initial speciation of two closely related spruce species Picea asperata and P. crassifolia occurring on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP). We analyzed sequences of three chloroplast, two mitochondrial DNA fragments and a further 13 nuclear loci from 216 individuals of the two species. Both species showed a low level of genetic diversity in contrast to other congeners occurring in the QTP and adjacent regions. The estimated population sizes of P. asperata and P. crassifolia are less than the ancestral population size before splitting. These results together with multiple statistical tests (Tajima's D, Fu and Li's D* and F*) suggest that these two species underwent recent bottlenecks. Based on approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), we also determined that the period of the population shrinkage was consistent with the interspecific divergence during the late Pleistocene. The reduced population sizes and the divergent selection may together have triggered the initial divergence under high gene flow between these two species. Our results therefore highlight the importance of climatic oscillations during the late Pleistocene in promoting speciation through changing demographic sizes of the ancestral species on the QTP and in adjacent regions.     

青藏高原气候变化与高寒草地

综述了近五十年来青藏高原气候和高寒草地的变化趋势,阐述了气候变化对高寒草地的可能影响。气候变化主要通过水、热过程及其诱导的环境变化对青藏高原高寒草地产生显著的影响。主要过程包括：气候变化对气候带、植被带、植物、植物群落、农业生产以及生态系统固碳潜力等的影响。从目前的观测和研究结果来看,有关青藏高原气候变化及其对高寒草地的可能影响都还很难得出一致的结论。因此,如何科学评价气候变化及其预测和评价对高寒草地结构和功能的潜在影响,以及如何将已经发生的变化纳入到全球变化模型或评价体系中,以便更加精确地评估气候变化的长期影响,将成为必须要回答的关键科学问题。     

Impacts of climate change and urban development on the spotted marsh frog (Limnodynastes tasmaniensis)

Climate change and urbanization are among the most serious threats to amphibians, although little is known about their combined effects. We used a predictive spatial habitat suitability model to explore the potential impacts of climate change and urban development on the spotted marsh frog (Limnodynastes tasmaniensis) on the urban‐fringe of Melbourne, Australia. The CSIRO climate‐change predictions for the region indicate likely temperature increases of 3°C, and annual rainfall reductions of around 200 mm by the year 2070. Much of the study area overlaps a region that has been identified as one of the city's growth corridors. We used Bayesian logistic regression modelling to estimate current and future habitat suitability of pond sites in the Merri Creek catchment, exploring a range of best‐ to worst‐case scenarios through the use of hydrological and urbanization models. Our predictions for 2070, even under a moderate climate‐change scenario, suggest that the majority of ponds in the study area will be dry throughout much of the year. This has obvious implications for L. tasmaniensis, which is an aquatic breeding species. However, in the short term, urbanization is likely to have a more significant effect on the distribution of L. tasmaniensis in the Merri Creek catchment, particularly if development moves beyond the current urban growth boundary. The combined effects of climate change and urbanization could have a profound impact on the species, potentially causing it to disappear from within the study area. We provide recommendations for including such predictive models in urban planning and restoration activities to prepare for future conservation challenges.