Costs and Cost-Effectiveness of Hypertension Screening and Treatment in Adults with Hypertension in Rural Nigeria in the Context of a Health Insurance Program

BackgroundHigh blood pressure is a leading risk factor for death and disability in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). We evaluated the costs and cost-effectiveness of hypertension care provided within the Kwara State Health Insurance (KSHI) program in rural Nigeria.MethodsA Markov model was developed to assess the costs and cost-effectiveness of population-level hypertension screening and subsequent antihypertensive treatment for the population at-risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) within the KSHI program. The primary outcome was the incremental cost per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted in the KSHI scenario compared to no access to hypertension care. We used setting-specific and empirically-collected data to inform the model. We defined two strategies to assess eligibility for antihypertensive treatment based on 1) presence of hypertension grade 1 and 10-year CVD risk of >20%, or grade 2 hypertension irrespective of 10-year CVD risk (hypertension and risk based strategy) and 2) presence of hypertension in combination with a CVD risk of >20% (risk based strategy). We generated 95% confidence intervals around the primary outcome through probabilistic sensitivity analysis. We conducted one-way sensitivity analyses across key model parameters and assessed the sensitivity of our results to the performance of the reference scenario.ResultsScreening and treatment for hypertension was potentially cost-effective but the results were sensitive to changes in underlying assumptions with a wide range of uncertainty. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for the first and second strategy respectively ranged from US$ 1,406 to US$ 7,815 and US$ 732 to US$ 2,959 per DALY averted, depending on the assumptions on risk reduction after treatment and compared to no access to antihypertensive treatment.ConclusionsHypertension care within a subsidized private health insurance program may be cost-effective in rural Nigeria and public-private partnerships such as the KSHI program may provide opportunities to finance CVD prevention care in SSA.     

Direct Healthcare Cost of Obesity in Brazil: An Application of the Cost-of-Illness Method from the Perspective of the Public Health System in 2011

Background

Obesity is a global public health problem and a risk factor for several diseases that financially impact healthcare systems.

Objective

To estimate the direct costs attributable to obesity (body mass index {BMI} ≥ 30 kg/m²) and morbid obesity (BMI ≥ 40 kg/m²) in adults aged ≥ 20 incurred by the Brazilian public health system in 2011.

Settings

Public hospitals and outpatient care.

Methods

A cost-of-illness method was adopted using a top-down approach based on prevalence. The proportion of the cost of each obesity-associated comorbidity was calculated and obesity prevalence was used to calculate attributable risk. Direct healthcare cost data (inpatient care, bariatric surgery, outpatient care, medications and diagnostic procedures) were extracted from the Ministry of Health information systems, available on the web.

Results

Direct costs attributable to obesity totaled US$ 269.6 million (1.86% of all expenditures on medium- and high-complexity health care). The cost of morbid obesity accounted for 23.8% (US$ 64.2 million) of all obesity-related costs despite being 18 times less prevalent than obesity. Bariatric surgery costs in Brazil totaled US$ 17.4 million in 2011. The cost of morbid obesity in women was five times higher than it was in men.

Conclusion

The cost of morbid obesity was found to be proportionally higher than the cost of obesity. If the current epidemic were not reversed, the prevalence of obesity in Brazil will increase gradually in the coming years, as well as its costs, having serious implications for the financial sustainability of the Brazilian public health system.     

Real-life quantitative G6PD screening in Plasmodium vivax patients in the Brazilian Amazon: A cost-effectiveness analysis

BackgroundAs quantitative glucose 6-phosphate dehydrogenase deficiency (G6PDd) screening tools are evaluated in operational studies, questions remain as to whether they are cost-effective. Here, a cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) was performed to estimate the Incremental Cost-effectiveness Ratio (ICER) of the introduction of quantitative screening test to detect G6PDd among P. vivax carriers in two municipalities in the Brazilian Amazon.Methodology/Principal findingsThis cost-effectiveness analysis evaluated the use of the Standard G6PD quantitative screening test in vivax malaria treatment units in two municipalities of the Brazilian Amazon. Using the perspective of the Brazilian public health system, the analysis was performed for the outcome ‘PQ-associated hospitalization avoided’, based on a decision tree model. The results indicated that the G6PDd screening strategy compared with the routine strategy was highly cost-effective, with an ICER of US$495 per additional hospitalization avoided, which represented less than 8% of one Brazilian gross domestic product per capita (US$6,822). The uncertainties evaluated in the sensitivity analysis did not significantly affect the ICER identified in the base-case.Conclusions/SignificanceThis cost-effectiveness analysis showed the quantitative G6PD testing was effective in avoiding PQ-associated hospitalizations. The incorporation of G6PD screening is of paramount importance towards P. vivax malaria elimination in the Amazon to promote the safe use of primaquine and tafenoquine.     

Total mercury in commercial fishes and estimation of Brazilian dietary exposure to methylmercury

BackgroundMercury, in particular its most toxic form methylmercury, poses a risk to public health. Dietary methylmercury exposure is mainly by fish, and it can vary with fish contamination and by dietary habits of the population. This study aimed to quantify total mercury levels in different fish from Brazil and to estimate Brazilian exposure to methylmercury by fish consumption.MethodsTotal mercury occurrence was investigated in 18 different fish species by atomic absorption spectrometry with thermal decomposition and gold amalgamation. Dietary exposure to methylmercury was estimated by a deterministic method for different groups considering consumption by sex, different Brazilian geographical regions and habitat (rural or urban).ResultsCarnivorous fish showed higher levels of mercury (0.01 to 0.93 mg/kg) compared to non-strictly carnivorous fish (<0.01 to 0.30 mg/kg). Farmed fishes showed significantly lower levels compared to wild fish. Mean Brazilian fish consumption achieves FAO/WHO health recommendation of about two portions of fish per week. However, there is a large difference between fish consumption at urban and rural homes and among Brazilian geographic regions. These differences in consumption impacted estimated methylmercury intake that was higher in the Northern (1.85 μg/kg bw week) and in the Northeastern (0.72 μg/kg bw week) regions and also by rural population (1.08 μg/kg bw week). These values were compared with the toxicological reference dose for neurotoxicity of 1.6 μg/kg bw week.ConclusionEven though total levels of mercury in fish were lower than Brazilian and international legislations, in the Northern Brazilian region methylmercury intake overpassed the toxicological reference dose for neurotoxicity and in rural areas it achieved 68% of this reference dose.     

A Multifaceted Intervention to Improve the Quality of Care of Children in District Hospitals in Kenya: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

Background

To improve care for children in district hospitals in Kenya, a multifaceted approach employing guidelines, training, supervision, feedback, and facilitation was developed, for brevity called the Emergency Triage and Treatment Plus (ETAT+) strategy. We assessed the cost effectiveness of the ETAT+ strategy, in Kenyan hospitals. Further, we estimate the costs of scaling up the intervention to Kenya nationally and potential cost effectiveness at scale.

Methods and Findings

Our cost-effectiveness analysis from the provider''s perspective used data from a previously reported cluster randomized trial comparing the full ETAT+ strategy (n = 4 hospitals) with a partial intervention (n = 4 hospitals). Effectiveness was measured using 14 process measures that capture improvements in quality of care; their average was used as a summary measure of quality. Economic costs of the development and implementation of the intervention were determined (2009 US$). Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were defined as the incremental cost per percentage improvement in (average) quality of care. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was used to assess uncertainty. The cost per child admission was US$50.74 (95% CI 49.26–67.06) in intervention hospitals compared to US$31.1 (95% CI 30.67–47.18) in control hospitals. Each percentage improvement in average quality of care cost an additional US$0.79 (95% CI 0.19–2.31) per admitted child. The estimated annual cost of nationally scaling up the full intervention was US$3.6 million, approximately 0.6% of the annual child health budget in Kenya. A “what-if” analysis assuming conservative reductions in mortality suggests the incremental cost per disability adjusted life year (DALY) averted by scaling up would vary between US$39.8 and US$398.3.

Conclusion

Improving quality of care at scale nationally with the full ETAT+ strategy may be affordable for low income countries such as Kenya. Resultant plausible reductions in hospital mortality suggest the intervention could be cost-effective when compared to incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of other priority child health interventions. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Systemic Adverse Events after Intravitreal Bevacizumab versus Ranibizumab for Age-Related Macular Degeneration: A Meta-Analysis

Objective

To assess whether the incidence of systemic adverse events differs between those who used bevacizumab and those who used ranibizumab in the treatment of age-related macular degeneration (AMD).

Methods

A systematic literature search was conducted to identify randomised controlled trials (RCTs) comparing the use of intravitreal bevacizumab with the use of ranibizumab in AMD patients. Results were expressed as risk ratios (RRs) with accompanying 95% confidence intervals (CIs). The data were pooled using the fixed-effect or random-effect model according to the heterogeneity present.

Results

Four RCTs were included in the final meta-analysis. Overall, the quality of the evidence was high. There were 2,613 treated patients: 1,291 treated with bevacizumab and 1,322 treated with ranibicizumab. No significant differences between bevacizumab use and ranizumab use were found in terms of the incidence of death from all causes, arteriothrombotic events, stroke, nonfatal myocardial infarction, vascular death, venous thrombotic events, and hypertension, with the pooled RRs being 1.11 (0.77, 1.61), 1.03 (0.69,1.55), 0.84 (0.39,1.80), 0.97 (0.48, 1.96), 1.24 (0.63, 2.44), 2.38 (0.94, 6.04), and 1.02 (0.29, 3.62), respectively.

Conclusions

The meta-analysis shows that both treatments are comparably safe. However, the findings from our study must be confirmed in future research via well-designed cohort or intervention studies because of the limited number of studies.     

Costs and Cost Effectiveness of Three Approaches for Cervical Cancer Screening among HIV-Positive Women in Johannesburg,South Africa

Background

South Africa has high rates of HIV and HPV and high incidence and mortality from cervical cancer. However, cervical cancer is largely preventable when early screening and treatment are available. We estimate the costs and cost-effectiveness of conventional cytology (Pap), visual inspection with acetic acid (VIA) and HPV DNA testing for detecting cases of CIN2+ among HIV-infected women currently taking antiretroviral treatment at a public HIV clinic in Johannesburg, South Africa.

Methods

Method effectiveness was derived from a validation study completed at the clinic. Costs were estimated from the provider perspective using micro-costing between June 2013-April 2014. Capital costs were annualized using a discount rate of 3%. Two different service volume scenarios were considered. Threshold analysis was used to explore the potential for reducing the cost of HPV DNA testing.

Results

VIA was least costly in both scenarios. In the higher volume scenario, the average cost per procedure was US$ 3.67 for VIA, US$ 8.17 for Pap and US$ 54.34 for HPV DNA. Colposcopic biopsies cost on average US$ 67.71 per procedure. VIA was least sensitive but most cost-effective at US$ 17.05 per true CIN2+ case detected. The cost per case detected for Pap testing was US$ 130.63 using a conventional definition for positive results and US$ 187.52 using a more conservative definition. HPV DNA testing was US$ 320.09 per case detected. Colposcopic biopsy costs largely drove the total and per case costs. A 71% reduction in HPV DNA screening costs would make it competitive with the conservative Pap definition.

Conclusions

Women need access to services which meet their needs and address the burden of cervical dysplasia and cancer in this region. Although most cost-effective, VIA may require more frequent screening due to low sensitivity, an important consideration for an HIV-positive population with increased risk for disease progression.     

Costs of Dengue Control Activities and Hospitalizations in the Public Health Sector during an Epidemic Year in Urban Sri Lanka

Background

Reported as a public health problem since the 1960s in Sri Lanka, dengue has become a high priority disease for public health authorities. The Ministry of Health is responsible for controlling dengue and other disease outbreaks and associated health care. The involvement of large numbers of public health staff in dengue control activities year-round and the provision of free medical care to dengue patients at secondary care hospitals place a formidable financial burden on the public health sector.

Methods

We estimated the public sector costs of dengue control activities and the direct costs of hospitalizations in Colombo, the most heavily urbanized district in Sri Lanka, during the epidemic year of 2012 from the Ministry of Health’s perspective. The financial costs borne by public health agencies and hospitals are collected using cost extraction tools designed specifically for the study and analysed retrospectively using a combination of activity-based and gross costing approaches.

Results

The total cost of dengue control and reported hospitalizations was estimated at US$3.45 million (US$1.50 per capita) in Colombo district in 2012. Personnel costs accounted for the largest shares of the total costs of dengue control activities (79%) and hospitalizations (46%). The results indicated a per capita cost of US$0.42 for dengue control activities. The average costs per hospitalization ranged between US$216–609 for pediatric cases and between US$196–866 for adult cases according to disease severity and treatment setting.

Conclusions

This analysis is a first attempt to assess the economic burden of dengue response in the public health sector in Sri Lanka. Country-specific evidence is needed for setting public health priorities and deciding about the deployment of existing or new technologies. Our results suggest that dengue poses a major economic burden on the public health sector in Sri Lanka.     

Ranibizumab versus Bevacizumab for Ophthalmic Diseases Related to Neovascularisation: A Meta-Analysis of Randomised Controlled Trials

Background

Bevacizumab is believed to be as effective and safe as ranibizumab for ophthalmic diseases; however, its magnitude of effectiveness and safety profile remain controversial. Thus, a meta-analysis and systematic review appears necessary.

Methods

PubMed and EMBASE were systematically searched with no restrictions. All relevant citations comparing ranibizumab and bevacizumab were considered for inclusion. Pooled effect estimates were obtained using a fixed- and random-effects meta-analysis.

Results

Nine independent randomised-controlled clinical trials (RCTs) involving 2,289 participants were identified. Compared with bevacizumab, the overall combined weighted mean difference (WMD) of the mean change in visual acuity for ranibizumab was 0.52 letters (95% CI −0.11–1.14). The odds ratios (ORs) of gaining ≥15, gaining 5–14, losing 5–14 and losing ≤15 letters were 1.10 (95% CI 0.90–1.33), 0.93 (95% CI 0.77–1.11), 0.89 (95% CI 0.65–1.22) and 0.95 (95% CI 0.73–1.25), respectively. The risk of serious systemic events increased by 17% (95% CI 6%–27%, p = 0.0042) for bevacizumab treatment in comparison with ranibizumab. No statistically significant differences between the two treatments were found for the nonfatal arterial thrombotic events, ocular serious adverse, death from vascular and all causes events.

Conclusions

Bevacizumab is not inferior to ranibizumab as a treatment for achieving visual acuity. The use of bevacizumab was associated with an increased risk of developing serious systemic events. Weighing the costs and health outcomes is necessary when selecting between bevacizumab and ranibizumab for ophthalmic diseases. Due to the limitations of the available data, further research is needed.     

雷珠单抗联合复方血栓通胶囊对年龄相关性黄斑变性患者血液流变学和血清VEGF、PDGF的影响

摘要 目的：观察雷珠单抗联合复方血栓通胶囊对年龄相关性黄斑变性（AMD）患者血液流变学和血清血管内皮生长因子（VEGF）、血小板衍生生长因子（PDGF）的影响。方法：选取我院2019年6月~2021年1月收治的AMD患者60例（96眼）,按照随机数字表法分别为对照组（n=30,46眼）和实验组（n=30,50眼）,对照组给予雷珠单抗治疗,实验组给予雷珠单抗联合复方血栓通胶囊治疗,对比两组眼部相关指标、血液流变学指标和血清VEGF、PDGF水平变化情况,观察两组治疗期间不良反应发生情况。结果：实验组治疗3个月后眼内压（IOP）、黄斑中央区厚度（CMT）、脉络新生血管（CNV）面积低于对照组,视力高于对照组（P<0.05）。实验组治疗3个月后全血低切/中切/高切黏度、血浆黏度低于对照组（P<0.05）。实验组治疗3个月后血清VEGF、PDGF水平低于对照组（P<0.05）。两组不良反应发生率对比无差异（P>0.05）。结论：雷珠单抗联合复方血栓通胶囊可改善AMD临床症状,促进视力恢复,其作用机制可能与调节机体血液流变学、血清VEGF、PDGF水平有关。     

ABE production from corn: a recent economic evaluation

This article details an economic assessment of butanol production from corn using the newly developed hyper-butanol-producing strain of Clostridium beijerinckii BA101. Butanol is produced in batch reactors and recovered by distillation. For a plant with 153,000 metric tons of acetone, butanol, and ethanol (ABE) production capacity, the production equipment cost and total working capital cost is US$33.47×10⁶ and US$110.46×10⁶, respectively. Based on a corn price (C _p) of US$79.23 ton⁻¹ (US$2.01 bushel⁻¹), an ABE yield of 0.42 (g ABE/g glucose) butanol price is projected to be US$0.34 kg⁻¹. An improved yield of 0.50 will reduce this price to US$0.29 kg⁻¹. Assumptions, such as by-product credit for gases and complete conversion of corn steep liquor (CSL) to fermentation by-products, have been taken into consideration. An increased price of corn to US$197.10 ton⁻¹ would result in a butanol price of US$0.47 kg⁻¹. A grass-rooted plant would result in a butanol price of US$0.73 kg⁻¹ (C _p US$79.23 ton⁻¹). In a worst case scenario, the price of butanol would increase to US$1.07 kg⁻¹ (C _p 197.10 ton⁻¹ for a grass-rooted plant and assuming no credit for gases). This is based on the assumption that corn price would not increase to more than US$197.10 ton⁻¹. Journal of Industrial Microbiology & Biotechnology (2001) 27, 292–297. Received 12 September 2000/ Accepted in revised form 12 January 2001     

Cost-Effectiveness of Clinical Decision Support System in Improving Maternal Health Care in Ghana

ObjectiveThis paper investigated the cost-effectiveness of a computer-assisted Clinical Decision Support System (CDSS) in the identification of maternal complications in Ghana.MethodsA cost-effectiveness analysis was performed in a before- and after-intervention study. Analysis was conducted from the provider’s perspective. The intervention area was the Kassena- Nankana district where computer-assisted CDSS was used by midwives in maternal care in six selected health centres. Six selected health centers in the Builsa district served as the non-intervention group, where the normal Ghana Health Service activities were being carried out.ResultsComputer-assisted CDSS increased the detection of pregnancy complications during antenatal care (ANC) in the intervention health centres (before-intervention= 9 /1,000 ANC attendance; after-intervention= 12/1,000 ANC attendance; P-value=0.010). In the intervention health centres, there was a decrease in the number of complications during labour by 1.1%, though the difference was not statistically significant (before-intervention =107/1,000 labour clients; after-intervention= 96/1,000 labour clients; P-value=0.305). Also, at the intervention health centres, the average cost per pregnancy complication detected during ANC (cost –effectiveness ratio) decreased from US$17,017.58 (before-intervention) to US$15,207.5 (after-intervention). Incremental cost –effectiveness ratio (ICER) was estimated at US$1,142. Considering only additional costs (cost of computer-assisted CDSS), cost per pregnancy complication detected was US$285.ConclusionsComputer –assisted CDSS has the potential to identify complications during pregnancy and marginal reduction in labour complications. Implementing computer-assisted CDSS is more costly but more effective in the detection of pregnancy complications compared to routine maternal care, hence making the decision to implement CDSS very complex. Policy makers should however be guided by whether the additional benefit is worth the additional cost.     

Scaling Up Family Planning to Reduce Maternal and Child Mortality: The Potential Costs and Benefits of Modern Contraceptive Use in South Africa

Introduction

Family planning contributes significantly to the prevention of maternal and child mortality. However, many women still do not use modern contraception and the numbers of unintended pregnancies, abortions and subsequent deaths are high. In this paper, we estimate the service delivery costs of scaling up modern contraception, and the potential impact on maternal, newborn and child survival in South Africa.

Methods

The Family Planning model in Spectrum was used to project the impact of modern contraception on pregnancies, abortions and births in South Africa (2015-2030). The contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR) was increased annually by 0.68 percentage points. The Lives Saved Tool was used to estimate maternal and child deaths, with coverage of essential maternal and child health interventions increasing by 5% annually. A scenario analysis was done to test impacts when: the change in CPR was 0.1% annually; and intervention coverage increased linearly to 99% in 2030.

Results

If CPR increased by 0.68% annually, the number of pregnancies would reduce from 1.3 million in 2014 to one million in 2030. Unintended pregnancies, abortions and births decrease by approximately 20%. Family planning can avert approximately 7,000 newborn and child and 600 maternal deaths. The total annual costs of providing modern contraception in 2030 are estimated to be US$33 million and the cost per user of modern contraception is US$7 per year. The incremental cost per life year gained is US$40 for children and US$1,000 for mothers.

Conclusion

Maternal and child mortality remain high in South Africa, and scaling up family planning together with optimal maternal, newborn and child care is crucial. A huge impact can be made on maternal and child mortality, with a minimal investment per user of modern contraception.     

康柏西普与雷珠单抗对年龄相关性黄斑变性患者血清CRP、VEGF、眼压及视力的影响

目的:探讨康柏西普与雷珠单抗对年龄相关性黄斑变性(AMD)患者血清中C反应蛋白(CRP)、血管内皮生长因子(VEGF)水平、眼压(IOP)及视力的影响。方法:选取2015年4月到2016年5月在我院接受治疗的AMD患者70例作为研究对象,采用随机数字表法将所有患者分为观察组和对照组各35例,所有患者给予内眼手术标准玻璃体注射治疗,观察组给予康柏西普注射液1.5mg腔内注射,对照组给予雷珠单抗注射液0.5 mL腔内注射,对比两组患者治疗前、治疗后3d血清CRP、VEGF水平;记录并对比两组患者视力、IOP水平及并发症情况。结果:两组患者治疗后3d血清CRP、VEGF水平较治疗前下降,且观察组患者CRP、VEGF水平低于对照组(P0.05);两组患者治疗后3d视力最小视角对数(logMAR)及IOP较治疗前降低,且观察组患者视力logMAR及IOP水平明显低于对照组,差异均有统计学意义(P0.05)。治疗后3d,两组各出现1例玻璃体出血,并发症发生率比较差异无统计学意义(P0.05)。结论:相对于雷珠单抗,康柏西普更能有效降低AMD患者血清CRP、VEGF水平和IOP,提高患者视力,改善病情,值得临床推广应用。     

Cost-Effectiveness of Procedures for Treatment of Ostium Secundum Atrial Septal Defects Occlusion Comparing Conventional Surgery and Septal Percutaneous Implant

ObjectivesThe study performs a cost-effectiveness analysis of procedures for atrial septal defects occlusion, comparing conventional surgery to septal percutaneous implant.MethodsA model of analytical decision was structured with symmetric branches to estimate cost-effectiveness ratio between the procedures. The decision tree model was based on evidences gathered through meta-analysis of literature, and validated by a panel of specialists. The lower number of surgical procedures performed for atrial septal defects occlusion at each branch was considered as the effectiveness outcome. Direct medical costs and probabilities for each event were inserted in the model using data available from Brazilian public sector database system and information extracted from the literature review, using micro-costing technique. Sensitivity analysis included price variations of percutaneous implant.ResultsThe results obtained from the decision model demonstrated that the percutaneous implant was more cost effective in cost-effectiveness analysis at a cost of US$8,936.34 with a reduction in the probability of surgery occurrence in 93% of the cases. Probability of atrial septal communication occlusion and cost of the implant are the determinant factors of cost-effectiveness ratio.ConclusionsThe proposal of a decision model seeks to fill a void in the academic literature. The decision model proposed includes the outcomes that present major impact in relation to the overall costs of the procedure. The atrial septal defects occlusion using percutaneous implant reduces the physical and psychological distress to the patients in relation to the conventional surgery, which represent intangible costs in the context of economic evaluation.     

Antenatal Syphilis Screening Using Point-Of-Care Testing in Low- and Middle-Income Countries in Asia and Latin America: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

BackgroundUntreated syphilis in pregnancy is associated with adverse clinical outcomes to the infant. In low- and middle-income countries in Asia and Latin America, 20%-30% of women are not tested for syphilis during pregnancy. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of increasing the coverage for antenatal syphilis screening in 11 Asian and 20 Latin American countries, using a point-of-care immunochromatographic strip (ICS) test.MethodsThe decision analytical cost-effectiveness models reported incremental costs per disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted from the perspectives of the national health care payer. Clinical outcomes were stillbirths, neonatal deaths, and congenital syphilis. DALYs were computed using WHO disability weights. Costs included the ICS test, three injections of benzathine penicillin, and nurse wages. Country-specific inputs included the antenatal prevalence of syphilis and the proportion of women in the antenatal care setting that are screened for syphilis infection as reported in the 2014 WHO baseline report on global sexually transmitted infection surveillance. Country-specific data on the annual number of live births, proportion of women with at least one antenatal care visit, and per capita gross national income were also included in the model.ResultsThe incremental cost/DALY averted of syphilis screening is US$53 (range: US$10-US$332; Prob<1*per capita GDP=99.71%) in Asia and US$60 (range: US$5-US$225; Prob<1*per capita GDP=99.77%) in Latin America. Universal screening may reduce the annual number of stillbirths by 20,344 and 4,270, neonatal deaths by 8,201 and 1,721, cases of congenital syphilis by 10,952 and 2,298, and avert 925,039 and 197,454 DALYs in the aggregate Asian and Latin American panel, respectively.ConclusionAntenatal syphilis screening is highly cost-effective in all the 11 Asian and 20 Latin American countries assessed. Our findings support the decision to expand syphilis screening in countries with currently low screening rates or continue national syphilis screening programs in countries with high rates.     

Health and economic benefits of achieving hepatitis C virus elimination in Pakistan: A modelling study and economic analysis

BackgroundModelling suggests that achieving the WHO incidence target for hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination in Pakistan could cost US$3.87 billion over 2018 to 2030. However, the economic benefits from integrating services or improving productivity were not included.Methods and findingsWe adapt a HCV transmission model for Pakistan to estimate the impact, costs, and cost-effectiveness of achieving HCV elimination (reducing annual HCV incidence by 80% by 2030) with stand-alone service delivery, or partially integrating one-third of initial HCV testing into existing healthcare services. We estimate the net economic benefits by comparing the required investment in screening, treatment, and healthcare management to the economic productivity gains from reduced HCV-attributable absenteeism, presenteeism, and premature deaths. We also calculate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted for HCV elimination versus maintaining current levels of HCV treatment. This is compared to an opportunity cost-based willingness-to-pay threshold for Pakistan (US$148 to US$198/DALY).Compared to existing levels of treatment, scaling up screening and treatment to achieve HCV elimination in Pakistan averts 5.57 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 3.80 to 8.22) million DALYs and 333,000 (219,000 to 509,000) HCV-related deaths over 2018 to 2030. If HCV testing is partially integrated, this scale-up requires an investment of US$1.45 (1.32 to 1.60) billion but will result in US$1.30 (0.94 to 1.72) billion in improved economic productivity over 2018 to 2030. This elimination strategy is highly cost-effective (ICER = US$29 per DALY averted) by 2030, with it becoming cost-saving by 2031 and having a net economic benefit of US$9.10 (95% UI 6.54 to 11.99) billion by 2050. Limitations include uncertainty around what level of integration is possible within existing primary healthcare services as well as a lack of Pakistan-specific data on disease-related healthcare management costs or productivity losses due to HCV.ConclusionsInvestment in HCV elimination can bring about substantial societal health and economic benefits for Pakistan.

Aaron G Lim and colleagues model the health and economic benefits of eliminating hepatitis C in Pakistan.     

Cost-effectiveness of the national dog rabies prevention and control program in Mexico, 1990–2015

BackgroundRabies is a viral zoonosis that imposes a substantial disease and economic burden in many developing countries. Dogs are the primary source of rabies transmission; eliminating dog rabies reduces the risk of exposure in humans significantly. Through mass annual dog rabies vaccination campaigns, the national program of rabies control in Mexico progressively reduced rabies cases in dogs and humans since 1990. In 2019, the World Health Organization validated Mexico for eliminating rabies as a public health problem. Using a governmental perspective, we retrospectively assessed the economic costs, effectiveness, and cost-effectiveness of the national program of rabies control in Mexico, 1990–2015.MethodologyCombining various data sources, including administrative records, national statistics, and scientific literature, we retrospectively compared the current scenario of annual dog vaccination campaigns and post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) with a counterfactual scenario without an annual dog vaccination campaign but including PEP. The counterfactual scenario was estimated using a mathematical model of dog rabies transmission (RabiesEcon). We performed a thorough sensitivity analysis of the main results.Principal findingsResults suggest that in 1990 through 2015, the national dog rabies vaccination program in Mexico prevented about 13,000 human rabies deaths, at an incremental cost (MXN 2015) of $4,700 million (USD 300 million). We estimated an average cost of $360,000 (USD 23,000) per human rabies death averted, $6,500 (USD 410) per additional year-of-life, and $3,000 (USD 190) per dog rabies death averted. Results were robust to several counterfactual scenarios, including high and low rabies transmission scenarios and various assumptions about potential costs without mass dog rabies vaccination campaigns.ConclusionsAnnual dog rabies vaccination campaigns have eliminated the transmission of dog-to-dog rabies and dog-mediated human rabies deaths in Mexico. According to World Health Organization standards, our results show that the national program of rabies control in Mexico has been highly cost-effective.     

Where the Road Ends,Yaws Begins? The Cost-effectiveness of Eradication versus More Roads

Introduction

A disabling and disfiguring disease that “begins where the road ends”, yaws is targeted by WHO for eradication by the year 2020. The global campaign is not yet financed. To evaluate yaws eradication within the context of the post-2015 development agenda, we perform a somewhat allegorical cost-effectiveness analysis of eradication, comparing it to a counterfactual in which we simply wait for more roads (the end of poverty).

Methods

We use evidence from four yaws eradication pilot sites and other mass treatment campaigns to set benchmarks for the cost of eradication in 12 known endemic countries. We construct a compartmental model of long-term health effects to 2050. Conservatively, we attribute zero cost to the counterfactual and allow for gradual exit of the susceptible (at risk) population by road (poverty reduction). We report mean, 5^th and 95^th centile estimates to reflect uncertainty about costs and effects.

Results

Our benchmark for the economic cost of yaws eradication is uncertain but not high –US$ 362 (75–1073) million in 12 countries. Eradication would cost US$ 26 (4.2–78) for each year of life lived without disability or disfigurement due to yaws, or US$ 324 (47–936) per disability-adjusted life year (DALY). Excluding drugs, existing staff and assets, the financial cost benchmark is US$ 213 (74–522) million. The real cost of waiting for more roads (poverty reduction) would be 13 (7.3–20) million years of life affected by early-stage yaws and 2.3 (1.1–4.2) million years of life affected by late-stage yaws.

Discussion

Endemic countries need financing to begin implementing and adapting global strategy to local conditions. Donations of drugs and diagnostics could reduce cost to the public sector and catalyze financing. Resources may be harnessed from the extractive industries. Yaws eradication should be seen as complementary to universal health coverage and shared prosperity on the post-2015 development agenda.     

Leprosy New Case Detection Trends and the Future Effect of Preventive Interventions in Pará State,Brazil: A Modelling Study

BackgroundLeprosy remains a public health problem in Brazil. Although the overall number of new cases is declining, there are still areas with a high disease burden, such as Pará State in the north of the country. We aim to predict future trends in new case detection rate (NCDR) and explore the potential impact of contact tracing and chemoprophylaxis on NCDR in Pará State.MethodsWe used SIMCOLEP, an existing individual-based model for the transmission and control of M. leprae, in a population structured by households. The model was quantified to simulate the population and observed NCDR of leprosy in Pará State for the period 1990 to 2014. The baseline scenario was the current control program, consisting of multidrug therapy, passive case detection, and active case detection from 2003 onwards. Future projections of the NCDR were made until 2050 given the continuation of the current control program (i.e. baseline). We further investigated the potential impact of two scenarios for future control of leprosy: 1) discontinuation of contact tracing; and 2) continuation of current control in combination with chemoprophylaxis. Both scenarios started in 2015 and were projected until 2050.ResultsThe modelled NCDR in Pará State after 2014 shows a continuous downward trend, reaching the official elimination target of 10 cases per 100,000 population by 2030. The cessation of systematic contact tracing would not result in a higher NCDR in the long run. Systematic contact tracing in combination with chemoprophylaxis for contacts would reduce the NCDR by 40% and bring attainment of the elimination target two years forward to 2028.ConclusionThe NCDR of leprosy continues to decrease in Pará State. Elimination of leprosy as a public health problem could possibly be achieved around 2030, if the current control program is maintained. Providing chemoprophylaxis would decrease the NCDR further and would bring elimination forward by two years.