Risk of genetic maladaptation due to climate change in three major European tree species

Tree populations usually show adaptations to their local environments as a result of natural selection. As climates change, populations can become locally maladapted and decline in fitness. Evaluating the expected degree of genetic maladaptation due to climate change will allow forest managers to assess forest vulnerability, and develop strategies to preserve forest health and productivity. We studied potential genetic maladaptation to future climates in three major European tree species, Norway spruce (Picea abies), silver fir (Abies alba), and European beech (Fagus sylvatica). A common garden experiment was conducted to evaluate the quantitative genetic variation in growth and phenology of seedlings from 77 to 92 native populations of each species from across Switzerland. We used multivariate genecological models to associate population variation with past seed source climates, and to estimate relative risk of maladaptation to current and future climates based on key phenotypic traits and three regional climate projections within the A1B scenario. Current risks from climate change were similar to average risks from current seed transfer practices. For all three climate models, future risks increased in spruce and beech until the end of the century, but remained low in fir. Largest average risks associated with climate projections for the period 2061–2090 were found for spruce seedling height (0.64), and for beech bud break and leaf senescence (0.52 and 0.46). Future risks for spruce were high across Switzerland. However, areas of high risk were also found in drought‐prone regions for beech and in the southern Alps for fir. Genetic maladaptation to future climates is likely to become a problem for spruce and beech by the end of this century, but probably not for fir. Consequently, forest management strategies should be adjusted in the study area for spruce and beech to maintain productive and healthy forests in the future.     

Relationships between the density of two potential restoration tree species and plant species abundance and richness in a degraded Afromontane forest of Kenya

In recent years, there have been considerable efforts to restore degraded tropical montane forests through active restoration using indigenous tree species. However, little is known about how these species used for restoration influence other species. In this study, two potential restoration species, Albizia gummifera and Neoboutonia macrocalyx, are investigated with regard to the relationship between their density and the abundance and richness of other plant species. The study was conducted in a degraded forest consisting of disturbed transition zones and secondary forest. Our results show positive relationships between the density of A. gummifera and the abundance of tree seedling and sapling richness in the transition zones and in the secondary forest. Shrub richness was negatively related to the density of A. gummifera. Abundance and richness of tree saplings and shrubs were positively related to N. macrocalyx density both in the transition zones and in the secondary forest. Herb species richness declined with N. macrocalyx density in the transition zones but increased with N. macrocalyx density in the secondary forest. The positive relationships between the density of the two tree species and species richness of other woody species suggest that both A. gummifera and N. macrocalyx can be suitable for active restoration of degraded mountain forests within their natural range.     

Contrasting responses to climate change at Himalayan treelines revealed by population demographics of two dominant species

1. Alpine treelines are expected to shift upward due to recent climate change. However, interpretation of changes in montane systems has been problematic because effects of climate change are frequently confounded with those of land use changes. The eastern Himalaya, particularly Langtang National Park, Central Nepal, has been relatively undisturbed for centuries and thus presents an opportunity for studying climate change impacts on alpine treeline uncontaminated by potential confounding factors.
2. We studied two dominant species, Abies spectabilis (AS) and Rhododendron campanulatum (RC), above and below the treeline on two mountains. We constructed 13 transects, each spanning up to 400 m in elevation, in which we recorded height and state (dead or alive) of all trees, as well as slope, aspect, canopy density, and measures of anthropogenic and animal disturbance.
3. All size classes of RC plants had lower mortality above treeline than below it, and young RC plants (<2 m tall) were at higher density above treeline than below. AS shows little evidence of a position change from the historic treeline, with a sudden extreme drop in density above treeline compared to below. Recruitment, as measured by size–class distribution, was greater above treeline than below for both species but AS is confined to ~25 m above treeline whereas RC is luxuriantly growing up to 200 m above treeline.
4. Synthesis. Evidence suggests that the elevational limits of RC have shifted upward both because (a) young plants above treeline benefited from facilitation of recruitment by surrounding vegetation, allowing upward expansion of recruitment, and (b) temperature amelioration to mature plants increased adult survival. We predict that the current pure stand of RC growing above treeline will be colonized by AS that will, in turn, outshade and eventually relegate RC to be a minor component of the community, as is the current situation below the treeline.

     

Strong topographic sheltering effects lead to spatially complex treeline advance and increased forest density in a subtropical mountain region

Altitudinal treelines are typically temperature limited such that increasing temperatures linked to global climate change are causing upslope shifts of treelines worldwide. While such elevational increases are readily predicted based on shifting isotherms, at the regional level the realized response is often much more complex, with topography and local environmental conditions playing an important modifying role. Here, we used repeated aerial photographs in combination with forest inventory data to investigate changes in treeline position in the Central Mountain Range of Taiwan over the last 60 years. A highly spatially variable upslope advance of treeline was identified in which topography is a major driver of both treeline form and advance. The changes in treeline position that we observed occurred alongside substantial increases in forest density, and lead to a large increase in overall forest area. These changes will have a significant impact on carbon stocking in the high altitude zone, while the concomitant decrease in alpine grassland area is likely to have negative implications for alpine species. The complex and spatially variable changes that we report highlight the necessity for considering local factors such as topography when attempting to predict species distributional responses to warming climate.     

Quantifying the effects of drought on abrupt growth decreases of major tree species in Switzerland

Drought entails important effects on tree physiology, which may result in short‐ to long‐term radial growth decreases. While the majority of studies have focused on annual drought‐related variability of growth, relatively little is known about sustained growth decreases following drought years. We apply a statistical framework to identify climatic factors that induce abrupt growth decreases and may eventually result in tree mortality. We used tree‐ring data from almost 500 standing dead trees and 200 living trees in eight sites of the Swiss network of strict forest reserves, including four of the most important Central European tree species (Abies alba, Picea abies, Fagus sylvatica and Quercus spp.). First, to assess short‐term growth responses to drought under various climate and site conditions, we calculated correlations and linear mixed‐effects models between ring‐width indices (RWIs) and drought based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Second, to quantify drought effects on abrupt growth decreases, we applied distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNMs), which account for both delayed effects and the nonlinear relationship between the SPEI and the occurrence of abrupt growth decreases. Positive correlations between RWIs and the SPEI indicated short‐term growth responses of all species, particularly at arid sites. Results of the DLNMs revealed species‐specific growth responses to drought. For Quercus spp., abrupt growth decreases were more likely to occur several years following severe drought, whereas for P. abies, A. alba, and F. sylvatica abrupt growth decreases started frequently immediately in the drought year. We conclude that the statistical framework allows for quantifying the effects of drought intensity on the probability of abrupt growth decreases, which ultimately contributes to an improved understanding of climate impacts on forest community dynamics.     

Using species distribution models to select species resistant to climate change for ecological restoration of bowé in West Africa

Bowalization is a particular form of land degradation and leads to lateral expansion of ferricrete horizons. The process occurs only in tropical regions. In this study, the most adapted and resistant species towards climate change were identified on bowé. The 15 most common bowé species of the subhumid and semi‐arid climate zones of Benin were submitted together with significant environmental variables (elevation, current bioclimatic variables, soil types) to three ecological niche modelling programmes (Maxent, Domain and GARP). For future prediction (2050), IPCC4/CIAT and IPCC5/CMIP5 climate data were applied. Asparagus africanus, Andropogon pseudapricus and Combretum nigricans were identified as the most resistant species for ecological restoration of bowé in the semi‐arid climate zone and Asparagus africanus, Detarium microcarpum and Lannea microcarpa in the subhumid climate zone. The ‘Pull’ strategies were identified as appropriate for ecological restoration of bowé in Benin.     

Integrating mechanistic and empirical model projections to assess climate impacts on tree species distributions in northwestern North America

Empirical and mechanistic models have both been used to assess the potential impacts of climate change on species distributions, and each modeling approach has its strengths and weaknesses. Here, we demonstrate an approach to projecting climate‐driven changes in species distributions that draws on both empirical and mechanistic models. We combined projections from a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) that simulates the distributions of biomes based on basic plant functional types with projections from empirical climatic niche models for six tree species in northwestern North America. These integrated model outputs incorporate important biological processes, such as competition, physiological responses of plants to changes in atmospheric CO₂ concentrations, and fire, as well as what are likely to be species‐specific climatic constraints. We compared the integrated projections to projections from the empirical climatic niche models alone. Overall, our integrated model outputs projected a greater climate‐driven loss of potentially suitable environmental space than did the empirical climatic niche model outputs alone for the majority of modeled species. Our results also show that refining species distributions with DGVM outputs had large effects on the geographic locations of suitable habitat. We demonstrate one approach to integrating the outputs of mechanistic and empirical niche models to produce bioclimatic projections. But perhaps more importantly, our study reveals the potential for empirical climatic niche models to over‐predict suitable environmental space under future climatic conditions.     

气候变化下中国主要生物燃油树种分布与变迁

生物燃油树种是发展生物质能源,实现化石能源替代战略的重要物质基础,明确当前和未来气候变化下我国生物燃油树种适生区分布,对保护和利用生物燃油树种,促进林业生物能源产业发展,保障能源安全和实现“双碳”目标具有重要意义。基于我国10个主要生物燃油树种的1037条树种分布数据和20个环境变量,利用最大熵模型(MaxEnt)预测了各树种当前和未来气候情景下(2050年和2070年的RCP4.5情景)的潜在适生区,得到了影响各树种分布贡献率最大的环境因子,并对我国各区域主要种植树种进行了区划。结果表明：(1)MaxEent模型预测效果较好,各树种模拟结果AUC值均在0.9以上。(2)影响各种分布的贡献率较高的环境因子因树种而异,最暖季度降水量和温度季节性变化标准差的相对贡献率较高。(3)10个生物燃油树种极高适生区面积范围在43.38万km²—117.74万km²之间,可根据模拟结果将树种分布划分为北部、中东部、东南部和西南部4个亚区,北部亚区主要树种为文冠果(Xanthoceras sorbifolium)和欧李(Cerasus humilis),中东...     

Mutualism influences species distribution predictions for a bromeliad‐breeding anuran under climate change

Ecological niche models, or species distribution models, have been widely used to identify potentially suitable areas for species in future climate change scenarios. However, there are inherent errors to these models due to their inability to evaluate species occurrence influenced by non‐climatic factors. With the intuit to improve the modelling predictions for a bromeliad‐breeding treefrog (Phyllodytes melanomystax, Hylidae), we investigate how the climatic suitability of bromeliads influences the distribution model for the treefrog in the context of baseline and 2050 climate change scenarios. We used point occurrence data on the frog and the bromeliad (Vriesea procera, Bromeliaceae) to generate their predicted distributions based on baseline and 2050 climates. Using a consensus of five algorithms, we compared the accuracy of the models and the geographic predictions for the frog generated from two modelling procedures: (i) a climate‐only model for P. melanomystax and V. procera; and (ii) a climate‐biotic model for P. melanomystax, in which the climatic suitability of the bromeliad was jointly considered with the climatic variables. Both modelling approaches generated strong and similar predictive power for P. melanomystax, yet climate‐biotic modelling generated more concise predictions, particularly for the year 2050. Specifically, because the predicted area of the bromeliad overlaps with the predictions for the treefrog in the baseline climate, both modelling approaches produce reasonable similar predicted areas for the anuran. Alternatively, due to the predicted loss of northern climatically suitable areas for the bromeliad by 2050, only the climate‐biotic models provide evidence that northern populations of P. melanomystax will likely be negatively affected by 2050.     

Identifying refugia from climate change using coupled ecological and genetic data in a transitional Mediterranean‐temperate tree species

Populations occurring in areas of overlap between the current and future distribution of a species are particularly important because they can represent “refugia from climate change”. We coupled ecological and range‐wide genetic variation data to detect such areas and to evaluate the impacts of habitat suitability changes on the genetic diversity of the transitional Mediterranean‐temperate tree Fraxinus angustifolia. We sampled and genotyped 38 natural populations comprising 1006 individuals from across Europe. We found the highest genetic diversity in western and northern Mediterranean populations, as well as a significant west to east decline in genetic diversity. Areas of potential refugia that correspond to approximately 70% of the suitable habitat may support the persistence of more than 90% of the total number of alleles in the future. Moreover, based on correlations between Bayesian genetic assignment and climate, climate change may favour the westward spread of the Black Sea gene pool in the long term. Overall, our results suggest that the northerly core areas of the current distribution contain the most important part of the genetic variation for this species and may serve as in situ macrorefugia from ongoing climate change. However, rear‐edge populations of the southern Mediterranean may be exposed to a potential loss of unique genetic diversity owing to habitat suitability changes unless populations can persist in microrefugia that have facilitated such persistence in the past.     

Collembola,the biological species concept and the underestimation of global species richness

Despite its ancient origin, global distribution and abundance in nearly all habitats, the class Collembola is comprised of only 8000 described species and is estimated to number no more than 50 000. Many morphologically defined species have broad geographical ranges that span continents, and recent molecular work has revealed high genetic diversity within species. However, the evolutionary significance of this genetic diversity is unknown. In this study, we sample five morphological species of the globally distributed genus Lepidocyrtus from 14 Panamanian sampling sites to characterize genetic diversity and test morphospecies against the biological species concept. Mitochondrial and nuclear DNA sequence data were analysed and a total of 58 molecular lineages revealed. Deep lineage diversification was recovered, with 30 molecular lineages estimated to have established more than 10 million years ago, and the origin almost all contemporary lineages preceding the onset of the Pleistocene (~2 Mya). Thirty‐four lineages were sampled in sympatry revealing unambiguous cosegregation of mitochondrial and nuclear DNA sequence variation, consistent with biological species. Species richness within the class Collembola and the geographical structure of this diversity are substantially misrepresented components of terrestrial animal biodiversity. We speculate that global species richness of Collembola could be at least an order of magnitude greater than a previous estimate of 50 000 species.     

Drought tolerance and growth in populations of a wide‐ranging tree species indicate climate change risks for the boreal north

Choosing drought‐tolerant planting stock in reforestation programs may help adapt forests to climate change. To inform such reforestation strategies, we test lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Doug. ex Loud. var latifolia Englm.) population response to drought and infer potential benefits of a northward transfer of seeds from drier, southern environments. The objective is addressed by combining dendroecological growth analysis with long‐term genetic field trials. Over 500 trees originating from 23 populations across western North America were destructively sampled in three experimental sites in southern British Columbia, representing a climate warming scenario. Growth after 32 years from provenances transferred southward or northward over long distances was significantly lower than growth of local populations. All populations were affected by a severe natural drought event in 2002. The provenances from the most southern locations showed the highest drought tolerance but low productivity. Local provenances were productive and drought tolerant. Provenances from the boreal north showed lower productivity and less drought tolerance on southern test sites than all other sources, implying that maladaptation to drought may prevent boreal populations from taking full advantage of more favorable growing conditions under projected climate change.     

Mutualism fails when climate response differs between interacting species

Successful species interactions require that both partners share a similar cue. For many species, spring warming acts as a shared signal to synchronize mutualist behaviors. Spring flowering plants and the ants that disperse their seeds respond to warming temperatures so that ants forage when plants drop seeds. However, where warm‐adapted ants replace cold‐adapted ants, changes in this timing might leave early seeds stranded without a disperser. We investigate plant seed dispersal south and north of a distinct boundary between warm‐ and cold‐adapted ants to determine if changes in the ant species influence local plant dispersal. The warm‐adapted ants forage much later than the cold‐adapted ants, and so we first assess natural populations of early and late blooming plants. We then transplant these plants south and north of the ant boundary to test whether distinct ant climate requirements disrupt the ant–plant mutualism. Whereas the early blooming plant's inability to synchronize with the warm‐adapted ant leaves its populations clumped and patchy and its seedlings clustered around the parents in natural populations, when transplanted into the range of the cold‐adapted ant, effective seed dispersal recovers. In contrast, the mutualism persists for the later blooming plant regardless of location because it sets seed later in spring when both warm‐ and cold‐adapted ant species forage, resulting in effective seed dispersal. These results indicate that the climate response of species interactions, not just the species themselves, is integral in understanding ecological responses to a changing climate. Data linking phenological synchrony and dispersal are rare, and these results suggest a viable mechanism by which a species' range is limited more by biotic than abiotic interactions – despite the general assumption that biotic influences are buried within larger climate drivers. These results show that biotic partner can be as fundamental a niche requirement as abiotic resources.     

Growth decline and divergent tree ring isotopic composition (δ13C and δ18O) contradict predictions of CO2 stimulation in high altitudinal forests

Human‐induced changes in atmospheric composition are expected to affect primary productivity across terrestrial biomes. Recent changes in productivity have been observed in many forest ecosystems, but low‐latitude upper tree line forests remain to be investigated. Here, we use dendrochronological methods and isotopic analysis to examine changes in productivity, and their physiological basis, in Abies religiosa (Ar) and Pinus hartwegii (Ph) trees growing in high‐elevation forests of central Mexico. Six sites were selected across a longitudinal transect (Transverse Volcanic Axis), from the Pacific Ocean toward the Gulf of Mexico, where mature dominant trees were sampled at altitudes ranging from 3200 to 4000 m asl. A total of 60 Ar and 84 Ph trees were analyzed to describe changes in growth (annual‐resolution) and isotopic composition (decadal‐resolution) since the early 1900s. Our results show an initial widespread increase in basal area increment (BAI) during the first half of the past century. However, BAI has decreased significantly since the 1950s with accentuated decline after the 1980s in both species and across sites. We found a consistent reduction in atmosphere to wood ¹³C discrimination, resulting from increasing water use efficiency (20–60%), coinciding with rising atmospheric CO₂. Changes in ¹³C discrimination were not followed, however, by shifts in tree ring δ¹⁸O, indicating site‐ and species‐specific differences in water source or uptake strategy. Our results indicate that CO₂ stimulation has not been enough to counteract warming‐induced drought stress, but other stressors, such as progressive nutrient limitation, could also have contributed to growth decline. Future studies should explore the distinct role of resource limitation (water vs. nutrients) in modulating the response of high‐elevation ecosystems to atmospheric change.