Cumulative Effect in Information Diffusion: Empirical Study on a Microblogging Network

Cumulative effect in social contagion underlies many studies on the spread of innovation, behavior, and influence. However, few large-scale empirical studies are conducted to validate the existence of cumulative effect in information diffusion on social networks. In this paper, using the population-scale dataset from the largest Chinese microblogging website, we conduct a comprehensive study on the cumulative effect in information diffusion. We base our study on the diffusion network of message, where nodes are the involved users and links characterize forwarding relationship among them. We find that multiple exposures to the same message indeed increase the possibility of forwarding it. However, additional exposures cannot further improve the chance of forwarding when the number of exposures crosses its peak at two. This finding questions the cumulative effect hypothesis in information diffusion. Furthermore, to clarify the forwarding preference among users, we investigate both structural motif in the diffusion network and temporal pattern in information diffusion process. Findings provide some insights for understanding the variation of message popularity and explain the characteristics of diffusion network.     

Finding Influential Spreaders from Human Activity beyond Network Location

Most centralities proposed for identifying influential spreaders on social networks to either spread a message or to stop an epidemic require the full topological information of the network on which spreading occurs. In practice, however, collecting all connections between agents in social networks can be hardly achieved. As a result, such metrics could be difficult to apply to real social networks. Consequently, a new approach for identifying influential people without the explicit network information is demanded in order to provide an efficient immunization or spreading strategy, in a practical sense. In this study, we seek a possible way for finding influential spreaders by using the social mechanisms of how social connections are formed in real networks. We find that a reliable immunization scheme can be achieved by asking people how they interact with each other. From these surveys we find that the probabilistic tendency to connect to a hub has the strongest predictive power for influential spreaders among tested social mechanisms. Our observation also suggests that people who connect different communities is more likely to be an influential spreader when a network has a strong modular structure. Our finding implies that not only the effect of network location but also the behavior of individuals is important to design optimal immunization or spreading schemes.     

Community Size Effects on Epidemic Spreading in Multiplex Social Networks

The dynamical process of epidemic spreading has drawn much attention of the complex network community. In the network paradigm, diseases spread from one person to another through the social ties amongst the population. There are a variety of factors that govern the processes of disease spreading on the networks. A common but not negligible factor is people’s reaction to the outbreak of epidemics. Such reaction can be related information dissemination or self-protection. In this work, we explore the interactions between disease spreading and population response in terms of information diffusion and individuals’ alertness. We model the system by mapping multiplex networks into two-layer networks and incorporating individuals’ risk awareness, on the assumption that their response to the disease spreading depends on the size of the community they belong to. By comparing the final incidence of diseases in multiplex networks, we find that there is considerable mitigation of diseases spreading for full phase of spreading speed when individuals’ protection responses are introduced. Interestingly, the degree of community overlap between the two layers is found to be critical factor that affects the final incidence. We also analyze the consequences of the epidemic incidence in communities with different sizes and the impacts of community overlap between two layers. Specifically, as the diseases information makes individuals alert and take measures to prevent the diseases, the effective protection is more striking in small community. These phenomena can be explained by the multiplexity of the networked system and the competition between two spreading processes.     

Detecting the Influence of Spreading in Social Networks with Excitable Sensor Networks

Detecting spreading outbreaks in social networks with sensors is of great significance in applications. Inspired by the formation mechanism of humans’ physical sensations to external stimuli, we propose a new method to detect the influence of spreading by constructing excitable sensor networks. Exploiting the amplifying effect of excitable sensor networks, our method can better detect small-scale spreading processes. At the same time, it can also distinguish large-scale diffusion instances due to the self-inhibition effect of excitable elements. Through simulations of diverse spreading dynamics on typical real-world social networks (Facebook, coauthor, and email social networks), we find that the excitable sensor networks are capable of detecting and ranking spreading processes in a much wider range of influence than other commonly used sensor placement methods, such as random, targeted, acquaintance and distance strategies. In addition, we validate the efficacy of our method with diffusion data from a real-world online social system, Twitter. We find that our method can detect more spreading topics in practice. Our approach provides a new direction in spreading detection and should be useful for designing effective detection methods.     

Dynamic Social Community Detection and Its Applications

Community structure is one of the most commonly observed features of Online Social Networks (OSNs) in reality. The knowledge of this feature is of great advantage: it not only provides helpful insights into developing more efficient social-aware solutions but also promises a wide range of applications enabled by social and mobile networking, such as routing strategies in Mobile Ad Hoc Networks (MANETs) and worm containment in OSNs. Unfortunately, understanding this structure is very challenging, especially in dynamic social networks where social interactions are evolving rapidly. Our work focuses on the following questions: How can we efficiently identify communities in dynamic social networks? How can we adaptively update the network community structure based on its history instead of recomputing from scratch? To this end, we present Quick Community Adaptation (QCA), an adaptive modularity-based framework for not only discovering but also tracing the evolution of network communities in dynamic OSNs. QCA is very fast and efficient in the sense that it adaptively updates and discovers the new community structure based on its history together with the network changes only. This flexible approach makes QCA an ideal framework applicable for analyzing large-scale dynamic social networks due to its lightweight computing-resource requirement. To illustrate the effectiveness of our framework, we extensively test QCA on both synthesized and real-world social networks including Enron, arXiv e-print citation, and Facebook networks. Finally, we demonstrate the applicability of QCA in real applications: (1) A social-aware message forwarding strategy in MANETs, and (2) worm propagation containment in OSNs. Competitive results in comparison with other methods reveal that social-based techniques employing QCA as a community detection core outperform current available methods.     

Identifying Influential Nodes in Large-Scale Directed Networks: The Role of Clustering

Identifying influential nodes in very large-scale directed networks is a big challenge relevant to disparate applications, such as accelerating information propagation, controlling rumors and diseases, designing search engines, and understanding hierarchical organization of social and biological networks. Known methods range from node centralities, such as degree, closeness and betweenness, to diffusion-based processes, like PageRank and LeaderRank. Some of these methods already take into account the influences of a node’s neighbors but do not directly make use of the interactions among it’s neighbors. Local clustering is known to have negative impacts on the information spreading. We further show empirically that it also plays a negative role in generating local connections. Inspired by these facts, we propose a local ranking algorithm named ClusterRank, which takes into account not only the number of neighbors and the neighbors’ influences, but also the clustering coefficient. Subject to the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) spreading model with constant infectivity, experimental results on two directed networks, a social network extracted from delicious.com and a large-scale short-message communication network, demonstrate that the ClusterRank outperforms some benchmark algorithms such as PageRank and LeaderRank. Furthermore, ClusterRank can also be applied to undirected networks where the superiority of ClusterRank is significant compared with degree centrality and k-core decomposition. In addition, ClusterRank, only making use of local information, is much more efficient than global methods: It takes only 191 seconds for a network with about nodes, more than 15 times faster than PageRank.     

Reinforcement Learning Explains Conditional Cooperation and Its Moody Cousin

Direct reciprocity, or repeated interaction, is a main mechanism to sustain cooperation under social dilemmas involving two individuals. For larger groups and networks, which are probably more relevant to understanding and engineering our society, experiments employing repeated multiplayer social dilemma games have suggested that humans often show conditional cooperation behavior and its moody variant. Mechanisms underlying these behaviors largely remain unclear. Here we provide a proximate account for this behavior by showing that individuals adopting a type of reinforcement learning, called aspiration learning, phenomenologically behave as conditional cooperator. By definition, individuals are satisfied if and only if the obtained payoff is larger than a fixed aspiration level. They reinforce actions that have resulted in satisfactory outcomes and anti-reinforce those yielding unsatisfactory outcomes. The results obtained in the present study are general in that they explain extant experimental results obtained for both so-called moody and non-moody conditional cooperation, prisoner’s dilemma and public goods games, and well-mixed groups and networks. Different from the previous theory, individuals are assumed to have no access to information about what other individuals are doing such that they cannot explicitly use conditional cooperation rules. In this sense, myopic aspiration learning in which the unconditional propensity of cooperation is modulated in every discrete time step explains conditional behavior of humans. Aspiration learners showing (moody) conditional cooperation obeyed a noisy GRIM-like strategy. This is different from the Pavlov, a reinforcement learning strategy promoting mutual cooperation in two-player situations.     

Contagion of Cooperation in Static and Fluid Social Networks

Cooperation is essential for successful human societies. Thus, understanding how cooperative and selfish behaviors spread from person to person is a topic of theoretical and practical importance. Previous laboratory experiments provide clear evidence of social contagion in the domain of cooperation, both in fixed networks and in randomly shuffled networks, but leave open the possibility of asymmetries in the spread of cooperative and selfish behaviors. Additionally, many real human interaction structures are dynamic: we often have control over whom we interact with. Dynamic networks may differ importantly in the goals and strategic considerations they promote, and thus the question of how cooperative and selfish behaviors spread in dynamic networks remains open. Here, we address these questions with data from a social dilemma laboratory experiment. We measure the contagion of both cooperative and selfish behavior over time across three different network structures that vary in the extent to which they afford individuals control over their network ties. We find that in relatively fixed networks, both cooperative and selfish behaviors are contagious. In contrast, in more dynamic networks, selfish behavior is contagious, but cooperative behavior is not: subjects are fairly likely to switch to cooperation regardless of the behavior of their neighbors. We hypothesize that this insensitivity to the behavior of neighbors in dynamic networks is the result of subjects’ desire to attract new cooperative partners: even if many of one’s current neighbors are defectors, it may still make sense to switch to cooperation. We further hypothesize that selfishness remains contagious in dynamic networks because of the well-documented willingness of cooperators to retaliate against selfishness, even when doing so is costly. These results shed light on the contagion of cooperative behavior in fixed and fluid networks, and have implications for influence-based interventions aiming at increasing cooperative behavior.     

Followers Are Not Enough: A Multifaceted Approach to Community Detection in Online Social Networks

In online social media networks, individuals often have hundreds or even thousands of connections, which link these users not only to friends, associates, and colleagues, but also to news outlets, celebrities, and organizations. In these complex social networks, a ‘community’ as studied in the social network literature, can have very different meaning depending on the property of the network under study. Taking into account the multifaceted nature of these networks, we claim that community detection in online social networks should also be multifaceted in order to capture all of the different and valuable viewpoints of ‘community.’ In this paper we focus on three types of communities beyond follower-based structural communities: activity-based, topic-based, and interaction-based. We analyze a Twitter dataset using three different weightings of the structural network meant to highlight these three community types, and then infer the communities associated with these weightings. We show that interesting insights can be obtained about the complex community structure present in social networks by studying when and how these four community types give rise to similar as well as completely distinct community structure.     

Emergence of Blind Areas in Information Spreading

Recently, contagion-based (disease, information, etc.) spreading on social networks has been extensively studied. In this paper, other than traditional full interaction, we propose a partial interaction based spreading model, considering that the informed individuals would transmit information to only a certain fraction of their neighbors due to the transmission ability in real-world social networks. Simulation results on three representative networks (BA, ER, WS) indicate that the spreading efficiency is highly correlated with the network heterogeneity. In addition, a special phenomenon, namely Information Blind Areas where the network is separated by several information-unreachable clusters, will emerge from the spreading process. Furthermore, we also find that the size distribution of such information blind areas obeys power-law-like distribution, which has very similar exponent with that of site percolation. Detailed analyses show that the critical value is decreasing along with the network heterogeneity for the spreading process, which is complete the contrary to that of random selection. Moreover, the critical value in the latter process is also larger than that of the former for the same network. Those findings might shed some lights in in-depth understanding the effect of network properties on information spreading.     

Effects of deception in social networks

Honesty plays a crucial role in any situation where organisms exchange information or resources. Dishonesty can thus be expected to have damaging effects on social coherence if agents cannot trust the information or goods they receive. However, a distinction is often drawn between prosocial lies (‘white’ lies) and antisocial lying (i.e. deception for personal gain), with the former being considered much less destructive than the latter. We use an agent-based model to show that antisocial lying causes social networks to become increasingly fragmented. Antisocial dishonesty thus places strong constraints on the size and cohesion of social communities, providing a major hurdle that organisms have to overcome (e.g. by evolving counter-deception strategies) in order to evolve large, socially cohesive communities. In contrast, white lies can prove to be beneficial in smoothing the flow of interactions and facilitating a larger, more integrated network. Our results demonstrate that these group-level effects can arise as emergent properties of interactions at the dyadic level. The balance between prosocial and antisocial lies may set constraints on the structure of social networks, and hence the shape of society as a whole.     

Exploring the Complex Pattern of Information Spreading in Online Blog Communities

Information spreading in online social communities has attracted tremendous attention due to its utmost practical values in applications. Despite that several individual-level diffusion data have been investigated, we still lack the detailed understanding of the spreading pattern of information. Here, by comparing information flows and social links in a blog community, we find that the diffusion processes are induced by three different spreading mechanisms: social spreading, self-promotion and broadcast. Although numerous previous studies have employed epidemic spreading models to simulate information diffusion, we observe that such models fail to reproduce the realistic diffusion pattern. In respect to users behaviors, strikingly, we find that most users would stick to one specific diffusion mechanism. Moreover, our observations indicate that the social spreading is not only crucial for the structure of diffusion trees, but also capable of inducing more subsequent individuals to acquire the information. Our findings suggest new directions for modeling of information diffusion in social systems, and could inform design of efficient propagation strategies based on users behaviors.     

Combining Epidemiological and Genetic Networks Signifies the Importance of Early Treatment in HIV-1 Transmission

Inferring disease transmission networks is important in epidemiology in order to understand and prevent the spread of infectious diseases. Reconstruction of the infection transmission networks requires insight into viral genome data as well as social interactions. For the HIV-1 epidemic, current research either uses genetic information of patients'' virus to infer the past infection events or uses statistics of sexual interactions to model the network structure of viral spreading. Methods for a reliable reconstruction of HIV-1 transmission dynamics, taking into account both molecular and societal data are still lacking. The aim of this study is to combine information from both genetic and epidemiological scales to characterize and analyse a transmission network of the HIV-1 epidemic in central Italy.We introduce a novel filter-reduction method to build a network of HIV infected patients based on their social and treatment information. The network is then combined with a genetic network, to infer a hypothetical infection transmission network. We apply this method to a cohort study of HIV-1 infected patients in central Italy and find that patients who are highly connected in the network have longer untreated infection periods. We also find that the network structures for homosexual males and heterosexual populations are heterogeneous, consisting of a majority of ‘peripheral nodes’ that have only a few sexual interactions and a minority of ‘hub nodes’ that have many sexual interactions. Inferring HIV-1 transmission networks using this novel combined approach reveals remarkable correlations between high out-degree individuals and longer untreated infection periods. These findings signify the importance of early treatment and support the potential benefit of wide population screening, management of early diagnoses and anticipated antiretroviral treatment to prevent viral transmission and spread. The approach presented here for reconstructing HIV-1 transmission networks can have important repercussions in the design of intervention strategies for disease control.     

Civility vs. Incivility in Online Social Interactions: An Evolutionary Approach

Evidence is growing that forms of incivility–e.g. aggressive and disrespectful behaviors, harassment, hate speech and outrageous claims–are spreading in the population of social networking sites’ (SNS) users. Online social networks such as Facebook allow users to regularly interact with known and unknown others, who can behave either politely or rudely. This leads individuals not only to learn and adopt successful strategies for using the site, but also to condition their own behavior on that of others. Using a mean field approach, we define anevolutionary game framework to analyse the dynamics of civil and uncivil ways of interaction in online social networks and their consequences for collective welfare. Agents can choose to interact with others–politely or rudely–in SNS, or to opt out from online social networks to protect themselves from incivility. We find that, when the initial share of the population of polite users reaches a critical level, civility becomes generalized if its payoff increases more than that of incivility with the spreading of politeness in online interactions. Otherwise, the spreading of self-protective behaviors to cope with online incivility can lead the economyto non-socially optimal stationary states. JEL Codes: C61, C73, D85, O33, Z13. PsycINFO Codes: 2240, 2750.     

Diffusion of Messages from an Electronic Cigarette Brand to Potential Users through Twitter

Objective

This study explores the presence and actions of an electronic cigarette (e-cigarette) brand, Blu, on Twitter to observe how marketing messages are sent and diffused through the retweet (i.e., message forwarding) functionality. Retweet networks enable messages to reach additional Twitter users beyond the sender’s local network. We follow messages from their origin through multiple retweets to identify which messages have more reach, and the different users who are exposed.

Methods

We collected three months of publicly available data from Twitter. A combination of techniques in social network analysis and content analysis were applied to determine the various networks of users who are exposed to e-cigarette messages and how the retweet network can affect which messages spread.

Results

The Blu retweet network expanded during the study period. Analysis of user profiles combined with network cluster analysis showed that messages of certain topics were only circulated within a community of e-cigarette supporters, while other topics spread further, reaching more general Twitter users who may not support or use e-cigarettes.

Conclusions

Retweet networks can serve as proxy filters for marketing messages, as Twitter users decide which messages they will continue to diffuse among their followers. As certain e-cigarette messages extend beyond their point of origin, the audience being exposed expands beyond the e-cigarette community. Potential implications for health education campaigns include utilizing Twitter and targeting important gatekeepers or hubs that would maximize message diffusion.     

What's in a crowd? Analysis of face-to-face behavioral networks

The availability of new data sources on human mobility is opening new avenues for investigating the interplay of social networks, human mobility and dynamical processes such as epidemic spreading. Here we analyze data on the time-resolved face-to-face proximity of individuals in large-scale real-world scenarios. We compare two settings with very different properties, a scientific conference and a long-running museum exhibition. We track the behavioral networks of face-to-face proximity, and characterize them from both a static and a dynamic point of view, exposing differences and similarities. We use our data to investigate the dynamics of a susceptible-infected model for epidemic spreading that unfolds on the dynamical networks of human proximity. The spreading patterns are markedly different for the conference and the museum case, and they are strongly impacted by the causal structure of the network data. A deeper study of the spreading paths shows that the mere knowledge of static aggregated networks would lead to erroneous conclusions about the transmission paths on the dynamical networks.     

Dynamics to Equilibrium in Network Games: Individual Behavior and Global Response

Various social contexts can be depicted as games of strategic interactions on networks, where an individual’s welfare depends on both her and her partners’ actions. Whereas much attention has been devoted to Bayes-Nash equilibria in such games, here we look at strategic interactions from an evolutionary perspective. To this end, we present the results of a numerical simulations program for these games, which allows us to find out whether Nash equilibria are accessible by adaptation of player strategies, and in general to identify the attractors of the evolution. Simulations allow us to go beyond a global characterization of the cooperativeness at equilibrium and probe into individual behavior. We find that when players imitate each other, evolution does not reach Nash equilibria and, worse, leads to very unfavorable states in terms of welfare. On the contrary, when players update their behavior rationally, they self-organize into a rich variety of Nash equilibria, where individual behavior and payoffs are shaped by the nature of the game, the social network’s structure and the players’ position within the network. Our results allow to assess the validity of mean-field approaches we use to describe the dynamics of these games. Interestingly, our dynamically-found equilibria generally do not coincide with (but show qualitatively the same features of) those resulting from theoretical predictions in the context of one-shot games under incomplete information.     

Detection of the Elite Structure in a Virtual Multiplex Social System by Means of a Generalised K-Core

Elites are subgroups of individuals within a society that have the ability and means to influence, lead, govern, and shape societies. Members of elites are often well connected individuals, which enables them to impose their influence to many and to quickly gather, process, and spread information. Here we argue that elites are not only composed of highly connected individuals, but also of intermediaries connecting hubs to form a cohesive and structured elite-subgroup at the core of a social network. For this purpose we present a generalization of the -core algorithm that allows to identify a social core that is composed of well-connected hubs together with their ‘connectors’. We show the validity of the idea in the framework of a virtual world defined by a massive multiplayer online game, on which we have complete information of various social networks. Exploiting this multiplex structure, we find that the hubs of the generalised -core identify those individuals that are high social performers in terms of a series of indicators that are available in the game. In addition, using a combined strategy which involves the generalised -core and the recently introduced -core, the elites of the different ’nations’ present in the game are perfectly identified as modules of the generalised -core. Interesting sudden shifts in the composition of the elite cores are observed at deep levels. We show that elite detection with the traditional -core is not possible in a reliable way. The proposed method might be useful in a series of more general applications, such as community detection.     

Emotions as infectious diseases in a large social network: the SISa model

Human populations are arranged in social networks that determine interactions and influence the spread of diseases, behaviours and ideas. We evaluate the spread of long-term emotional states across a social network. We introduce a novel form of the classical susceptible–infected–susceptible disease model which includes the possibility for ‘spontaneous’ (or ‘automatic’) infection, in addition to disease transmission (the SISa model). Using this framework and data from the Framingham Heart Study, we provide formal evidence that positive and negative emotional states behave like infectious diseases spreading across social networks over long periods of time. The probability of becoming content is increased by 0.02 per year for each content contact, and the probability of becoming discontent is increased by 0.04 per year per discontent contact. Our mathematical formalism allows us to derive various quantities from the data, such as the average lifetime of a contentment ‘infection’ (10 years) or discontentment ‘infection’ (5 years). Our results give insight into the transmissive nature of positive and negative emotional states. Determining to what extent particular emotions or behaviours are infectious is a promising direction for further research with important implications for social science, epidemiology and health policy. Our model provides a theoretical framework for studying the interpersonal spread of any state that may also arise spontaneously, such as emotions, behaviours, health states, ideas or diseases with reservoirs.     

Efficient “Communication through Coherence” Requires Oscillations Structured to Minimize Interference between Signals

The ‘communication through coherence’ (CTC) hypothesis proposes that selective communication among neural networks is achieved by coherence between firing rate oscillation in a sending region and gain modulation in a receiving region. Although this hypothesis has stimulated extensive work, it remains unclear whether the mechanism can in principle allow reliable and selective information transfer. Here we use a simple mathematical model to investigate how accurately coherent gain modulation can filter a population-coded target signal from task-irrelevant distracting inputs. We show that selective communication can indeed be achieved, although the structure of oscillatory activity in the target and distracting networks must satisfy certain previously unrecognized constraints. Firstly, the target input must be differentiated from distractors by the amplitude, phase or frequency of its oscillatory modulation. When distracting inputs oscillate incoherently in the same frequency band as the target, communication accuracy is severely degraded because of varying overlap between the firing rate oscillations of distracting inputs and the gain modulation in the receiving region. Secondly, the oscillatory modulation of the target input must be strong in order to achieve a high signal-to-noise ratio relative to stochastic spiking of individual neurons. Thus, whilst providing a quantitative demonstration of the power of coherent oscillatory gain modulation to flexibly control information flow, our results identify constraints imposed by the need to avoid interference between signals, and reveal a likely organizing principle for the structure of neural oscillations in the brain.