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1.
Understanding the population dynamics of savanna elephants depends on estimating population parameters such as the age at first reproduction, calving interval and age-specific survival rates. The generation of these parameters, however, relies on the ability to accurately determine the age of individuals, but a reliable age estimation technique for free-ranging elephants is presently not available. Shoulder heights of elephants were measured in 10 populations in five countries across southern and eastern Africa. Data included shoulder height measurements from two populations where the age of each individual was known (i.e. Addo Elephant National Park, South Africa and Amboseli National Park, Kenya). From the known-age data, Von Bertalanffy growth functions were constructed for both male and female elephants. Savanna elephants were found to attain similar asymptotic shoulder heights in the 10 populations, while individuals in the two known-age populations grew at the same rate. The Von Bertalanffy growth curves allowed for the accurate age estimation of females up to 15 years of age and males up to 36 years of age. The results indicate that shoulder height can serve as an indicator of chronological age for elephants below 15 years of age for females and 36 years of age for males. Ages derived from these growth curves can then be used to generate age-specific population variables, which will help assess the demographic status of savanna elephant populations across Africa.  相似文献   

2.
Recent research indicates that tooth-cementum annulations (TCA) may be used more reliably than other morphological or histological traits of the adult skeleton to estimate age. Until now, however, confidence intervals for age estimated by this method have not been available for paleodemographic and forensic applications. The present study addresses this problem. Based on a large known-age sample, age estimates by TCA were conducted in a blind study involving 363 teeth. Tooth-root cross sections were made using a refined preparation technique. Improved digital graphic procedures and enhancement strategies were used to produce digital images with a specially adapted software package. This resulted in high concordance between the TCA age estimates and chronological age. Assessment of the method's accuracy, as expressed by 95% confidence intervals, showed that error bounds for age estimates do not exceed 2.5 years. Sex differences, intraindividual correlations, and the effects of periodontal disease were studied. None of these indicators had a quantitative effect on the number of TCA bands when the proposed methodological standard was followed. We conclude that the TCA technique is a reliable method for estimating a subject's age from cementum annulations.  相似文献   

3.
So far the vast majority of studies on large carnivore predation, including kill rates and consumption, have been based on winter studies. Because large carnivores relying on ungulates as prey often show a preference for juveniles, kill rates may be both higher and more variable during the summer season than during the rest of the year leading to serious underestimates of the total annual predation rate. This study is the first to present detailed empirical data on kill rates and prey selection in a wolf–moose system during summer (June–September) as obtained by applying modern Global Positioning System-collar techniques on individual wolves (Canis lupus) in Scandinavia. Moose (Alces alces) was the dominant prey species both by number (74.4%) and biomass (95.6%); 89.9% of all moose killed were juveniles, representing 76.0% of the biomass consumed by wolves. Kill rate in terms of the kilogram biomass/kilogram wolf per day averaged 0.20 (range: 0.07–0.32) among wolf territories and was above, or well above, the daily minimum food requirements in most territories. The average number of days between moose kills across wolf territories and study periods was 1.71 days, but increased with time and size of growing moose calves during summer. Over the entire summer (June–September, 122 days), a group (from two to nine) of wolves killed a total of 66 (confidence interval 95%; 56–81) moose. Incorporation of body growth functions of moose calves and yearlings and wolf pups over the summer period showed that wolves adjusted their kill rate on moose, so the amount of biomass/kilogram wolf was relatively constant or increased. The kill rate was much higher (94–116%) than estimated from the winter period. As a consequence, projecting winter kill rates to obtain annual estimates of predation in similar predator–prey systems may result in a significant underestimation of the total number of prey killed. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.  相似文献   

4.
New-hoof growth is regarded as the most reliable metric for predicting age of newborn ungulates, but variation in estimated age among hoof-growth equations that have been developed may affect estimates of survival in staggered-entry models. We used known-age newborns to evaluate variation in age estimates among existing hoof-growth equations and to determine the consequences of that variation on survival estimates. During 2001–2009, we captured and radiocollared 174 newborn (≤24-hrs old) ungulates: 76 white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Minnesota and South Dakota, 61 mule deer (O. hemionus) in California, and 37 pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) in South Dakota. Estimated age of known-age newborns differed among hoof-growth models and varied by >15 days for white-tailed deer, >20 days for mule deer, and >10 days for pronghorn. Accuracy (i.e., the proportion of neonates assigned to the correct age) in aging newborns using published equations ranged from 0.0% to 39.4% in white-tailed deer, 0.0% to 3.3% in mule deer, and was 0.0% for pronghorns. Results of survival modeling indicated that variability in estimates of age-at-capture affected short-term estimates of survival (i.e., 30 days) for white-tailed deer and mule deer, and survival estimates over a longer time frame (i.e., 120 days) for mule deer. Conversely, survival estimates for pronghorn were not affected by estimates of age. Our analyses indicate that modeling survival in daily intervals is too fine a temporal scale when age-at-capture is unknown given the potential inaccuracies among equations used to estimate age of neonates. Instead, weekly survival intervals are more appropriate because most models accurately predicted ages within 1 week of the known age. Variation among results of neonatal-age models on short- and long-term estimates of survival for known-age young emphasizes the importance of selecting an appropriate hoof-growth equation and appropriately defining intervals (i.e., weekly versus daily) for estimating survival.  相似文献   

5.
The sustainability of wild ungulate harvests can be greatly enhanced if monitoring data are available to permit an adaptive management approach. Utilising data provided by hunters is potentially the most cost-effective approach. In Scandinavia, observations recorded by moose (Alces alces) hunters provide a range of indices of population density, composition and reproductive performance. These are routinely used in practical management, but there are still many questions about their accuracy and precision. In this study, we availed of the fact that virtually all individual moose on the island of Vega in central Norway were marked during the period 1992–2005. Thus, we were able to compare the observation indices provided by hunters to the known size and composition of the population. The results indicate that the hunter observation indices provided accurate estimates of variation in moose cow recruitment and twinning rates. The estimates of sex ratio closely followed the pattern of annual variation but showed a consistent pattern of over-estimating the proportion of males. Thus, males seem to visually expose themselves more often for hunters than do females. The density index, measured as number of moose seen per hunter day did not to the same extent follow the variation in population density, possibly because moose were more naive in the first years after hunting was introduced or because of reduced detection conditions due to increasing scrub and tree encroachment during the study period. The results are discussed in light of their application to management and the evolutionary pressures in moose anti-predator behaviour.  相似文献   

6.
We used a simple life table approach to examine the age-specific patterns of harvest mortality in eight Norwegian moose populations during the last 15 years and tried to determine if the observed patterns were caused by hunter selectivity. The general opinion among local managers is that hunters prefer to shoot female moose not in company with calves to keep a high number of reproductive females in the population (and because of the emotional stress involved in leaving the calf/calves without a mother), and relatively large males because of the higher return with respect to meat and trophy. In support of the former view, we found the harvest mortality of adult females to be higher among pre-prime (1–3 years old) than prime-aged age classes (4–7 years old). This is probably because prime-aged females are more fecund and, therefore, more likely to be in company with one or two calves during the hunting season. As the season progressed, however, the selection pressure on barren females decreased, probably due to more productive females becoming ‘legal’ prey as their calf/calves were harvested. In males, we did not find any evidence of strong age-specific hunter selectivity, despite strong age-dependent variation in body mass and antler size. We suggest that this was due to the current strongly female-biased sex ratio in most Norwegian moose populations, which leaves the hunters with few opportunities to be selective within a relatively short and intensive hunting season. The management implications of these findings and to what extent the results are likely to affect the future evolution of life histories in Norwegian moose populations are discussed.Electronic Supplementary Material Supplementary material is available for this article at and accessible for authorised users.  相似文献   

7.
Age is a key component of fitness, affecting survival and reproductive capacities. Where it is not possible to study known individuals from birth, morphometrics (predominantly patterns of plumage development for birds) are most often used to estimate age. Although criteria for age estimations exist for many species, the degree to which these criteria improve the precision of estimates remains to be tested, restricting their widespread acceptance. We develop a photographic tool for estimating ages of Common Tern (Sterna hirundo) chicks and test it using 100 human observers of varying prior experience across four breeding colonies (three North American sites and one European site) and under controlled laboratory conditions. We followed the design approach of other morphometric tools, expanding it to create a user-friendly guide (divided into six age groupings). The majority (86%) of observers improved in chick-aging accuracy when using the tool by an average of 20.1% (±1.4 SE) and correctly estimated 60.3% (±1.4) of chick ages. This was similar to the intrinsic aging ability of our best field observer (63.3%). Observers with limited experience showed the greatest increases in chick-aging accuracy over experienced observers who likely had established a method for estimating chick ages prior to using the tool. Even the best observers only correctly estimated ages of chicks 62.9% (±2.8) of the time in the field and 84.0% (±2.9) of the time in the lab when using the tool and typically underestimated ages. This indicates that developmental variation between individual chicks can prevent completely reliable age estimates and corroborates the few existing data that suggest that morphometric criteria fail to achieve robust levels of accuracy and may introduce error into studies that rely on them. We conclude that novel approaches for estimating age, not only morphometric criteria, must be pursued.  相似文献   

8.
In order to assess the accuracy and reliability of age estimates from calcified structures in the three-spined stickleback Gasterosteus aculeatus, we evaluated intra and inter-reader repeatability from three structures: otoliths, gill covers and pelvic spines). Average age estimates were also compared between the structures. The overall intra-reader repeatability of age estimates were highest for otoliths (69%), lowest for gill covers (53%) and intermediate for spine cross-sections (63%). Although four of the seven readers had the highest intra-reader repeatability score for spine cross-sections, the inter-reader variance in this structure was much higher than in others. Otoliths were the easiest in terms of their pre-analysis treatment and exchange of materials (as digital images) between readers. In addition, otoliths are more well-studied compared with the other structures with respect to their development through ontogenesis; hence, age estimates based on otoliths should be the most reliable. Therefore, our recommendation is that whenever possible, analysis of otoliths should be the preferred approach for aging G. aculeatus.  相似文献   

9.
Regulatory controls of quality assurance in veterinary laboratories are less common than in human reproduction laboratories and the intra- and inter-technician variation in the assessment of canine vaginal cytology has not been reported. This study was designed to determine whether variation in classification of vaginal epithelial cells and interpretation of vaginal cytology smears existed within and between technicians in a canine reproductive laboratory.Sixteen vaginal cytology smears representing different known stages of the oestrous cycle were examined twice by one experienced technician and three inexperienced technicians in a blinded random order study design. Seven assessments were made; counting and classifying one hundred vaginal epithelial cells into four morphological classifications and assessment of three cellular categories. Technicians also interpreted their results and reported the stage of the cycle they thought each slide represented. In addition, selected samples were sent to four external commercial laboratories for interpretation.For the experienced technician, intra-technician variation was low for the morphological classifications and cellular assessments (r = 0.69-0.95). There was more intra-technician variation between results from Examination One and Examination Two for the inexperienced technicians (r = 0.53-0.92 where correlations were found). When inexperienced technicians' results were compared to results from the experienced technician, the inter-technician variation was low; results were correlated for 17 of the 21 observations (four morphological classifications and three cellular assessments across the three technicians) (r = 0.38-0.87). When technician interpretations of stage of the oestrous cycle were compared to the known stage of the cycle for each smear, the experienced technician correctly interpreted 19 of the 32 smears, whilst the three inexperienced technicians correctly interpreted 14, 16, and 18 of the 32 smears. The interpretation of vaginal smears by external laboratories was varied and sometimes inconclusive; 50% of laboratories incorrectly identified metoestrus smears as proestrus and 25% of the laboratories incorrectly identified an oestrus smear as proestrus.The results of this study are highly important for clinicians undertaking canine reproductive assessments since they demonstrate the potential for variability of results. While the greatest precision was found when vaginal smears were examined by an experienced technician (who, on a daily basis, examines many smears), more variability in both the reporting of different cell types and interpretation of the smears was observed by inexperienced technicians and when samples were sent to external commercial laboratories. These findings suggest that suitable quality control programmes should be implemented for laboratories that are undertaking routine assessments of canine reproductive function.  相似文献   

10.
It has been suggested that breeding performance differs between young and old birds due to the appearance and disappearance of phenotypes through differential survival (selection hypothesis) or differential recruitment (delayed breeding hypothesis) of high-quality individuals, but each bird may show constant breeding performance over its life. We tested constant egg-volume and laying date by modelling their variability on the basis of the 109 known-age females of common tern Sterna hirundo with data available from 1 to 9 years. Longitudinal analyses showed a significant advancement of laying date, as well as a steady increase in egg-volume, in young age classes from 2 to 5–7 years old, indicating individual intrinsic changes in performance with age. In our model, female effect accounted for 74% and 8% of variance in egg-volume and laying date, respectively, suggesting that if correlation between breeding performance and survival or recruitment exists, population patterns of age-specific performance may emerge. However, we found no evidence that birds that did not return to breed during young age classes laid later or smaller eggs than returned breeders. Likewise, we found no evidence that recruiting birds laid earlier or larger eggs than same aged birds recruited in preceding years. Thus, this study shows that age-specific patterns in timing of breeding and egg-size in common terns result from individuals intrinsic changes, and we reject the selection and the delayed breeding hypotheses as a major factor shaping age-specific patterns at population level.Communicated by F. Bairlein  相似文献   

11.
The spatial and temporal genetic structure of brown trout populations from three small tributaries of Lake Hald, Denmark, was studied using analysis of variation at eight microsatellite loci. From two of the populations temporal samples were available, separated by up to 13 years (3.7 generations). Significant genetic differentiation was observed among all samples, however, hierarchical analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) showed that differentiation among populations accounted for a non-significant amount of the genetic differentiation, whereas differentiation among temporal samples within populations was highly significant (0.0244, P<0.001). Estimates of effective population size (N e) using a maximum-likelihood based implementation of the temporal method, yielded small values (N e ranging from 33 to 79). When a model was applied that allows for migration among populations, N e estimates were even lower (24–54), and migration rates were suggested to be high (0.13–0.36). All samples displayed a clear signal of a recent bottleneck, probably stemming from a period of unfavourable conditions due to organic pollution in the 1970–1980’s. By comparison to other estimates of N e in brown trout, Lake Hald trout represent a system of small populations linked by extensive gene flow, whereas other populations in larger rivers exhibit much higher N e values and experience lower levels of immigration. We suggest that management considerations for systems like Lake Hald brown trout should focus both on a regional scale and at the level of individual populations, as the future persistence of populations depends both on maintaining individual populations and ensuring sufficient migration links among these populations.  相似文献   

12.
Studies of health, survival, and development of juvenile Alaskan Steller sea lions ( Eumetopias jubatus , SSL) require accurate estimates of age for wild-captured animals. However, the value and accuracy of several potential predictors of age have not been assessed with data from known-age free-ranging animals. During 2001–2005, forty-six individual SSL originally branded or tagged at ≤6 mo of age were recaptured by the Alaska Department of Fish and Game (ADF&G). Using a series of general linear models, we evaluated the ability of morphometrics measurements: permanent canine tooth length (CTL), diastema (DIAS), whisker length (WHIS), and dorsal standard length (DSL) to predict the age of forty-six known-age juveniles ( n = 46 ≤23 mo of age). Permanent CTL was the strongest individual predictor ( r 2= 0.80); followed by DSL, DIAS, and WHIS ( r 2= 0.70, 0.56, and 0.45, respectively). The inclusion of a single sample from a 44-mo-old sea lion suggested quadratic relationships between age and all predictors for older animals. Only models including CTL predicted age to within 6 mo of known age. The equation Age = (−3.0112 +[0.6726 * CTL]+[0.4965 * DIAS]) allows for accurate age estimates of SSL ≤23 mo for both sexes.  相似文献   

13.
Determining the age of individuals in a population can lead to a better understanding of population dynamics through age structure analysis and estimation of age-specific fecundity and survival rates. Shoulder height has been used to accurately assign age to free-ranging African savanna elephants. However, back length may provide an analog measurable in aerial-based surveys. We assessed the relationship between back length and age for known-age elephants in Amboseli National Park, Kenya, and Addo Elephant National Park, South Africa. We also compared age- and sex-specific back lengths between these populations and compared adult female back lengths across 11 widely dispersed populations in five African countries. Sex-specific Von Bertalanffy growth curves provided a good fit to the back length data of known-age individuals. Based on back length, accurate ages could be assigned relatively precisely for females up to 23 years of age and males up to 17. The female back length curve allowed more precise age assignment to older females than the curve for shoulder height does, probably because of divergence between the respective growth curves. However, this did not appear to be the case for males, but the sample of known-age males was limited to ≤27 years. Age- and sex-specific back lengths were similar in Amboseli National Park and Addo Elephant National Park. Furthermore, while adult female back lengths in the three Zambian populations were generally shorter than in other populations, back lengths in the remaining eight populations did not differ significantly, in support of claims that growth patterns of African savanna elephants are similar over wide geographic regions. Thus, the growth curves presented here should allow researchers to use aerial-based surveys to assign ages to elephants with greater precision than previously possible and, therefore, to estimate population variables.  相似文献   

14.
Previous studies on moose Alces alces have suggested that interactions with humans may trigger anti-predator behaviors and generate a demographical cost. Therefore, we hypothesized that disturbances from small and big game hunting may have negative effects on moose movements, diurnal activity, and activity range. Using location data from 64 moose equipped with GPS collars from three populations (Low Alpine, Inland, Coastal) with different temporal human presence and spatial accessibility, we evaluated the impact of hunting on moose activity rhythms. On average, female moose in the low human population density (Low Alpine) area (<0.5/km2) had significantly lower movement rates during moose hunting season, but variation in movement rates among individuals were higher compared with female moose in regions with denser human populations (6–24/km2). We found no evidence that reproductive status influenced female moose sensitivity to disturbance. As expected, females used smaller activity ranges and were less active nocturnally than males. The high within-group variation suggests that current hunting disturbance levels do not alter moose population behavior in general. Our data indicate that alterations in movement were related to rutting activity, not human disturbance induced by hunting. In line with behavioral theory, our study suggests that some individuals were more sensitive to hunting disturbance than the general population. Our work suggests that individual moose may perceive human predation risk to be similar to other predation risks.  相似文献   

15.
The standard deviation of nucleolar area (SDNA), as determined by semiautomated measurement of routinely prepared histologic sections, has been shown to be an effective predictor of mortality for human intraocular melanoma. One hundred cases of this tumor underwent two independent determinations of SDNA by each of two technicians using the same device. One technician performed the two measurements within two months, the other within three weeks. Analysis of these 400 values revealed the following: the more experienced of the two technicians achieved an acceptable level of reproducibility in determining SDNA; the less-experienced technician achieved a lower level of reproducibility; a systematic bias was found upon comparing SDNA values of the two technicians; and this bias can be partially corrected by applying a linear transform. These findings support the value of SDNA as a practical clinical measure of malignant potential for intraocular melanoma but also suggest that experience can enhance the reproducibility of a technician's measurements.  相似文献   

16.
The harvest of ungulate populations is often directed against certain sex or age classes to maximize the yield in terms of biomass, number of shot animals or number of trophies. Here we examine how such directional harvest affects the effective size of the population. We parameterize an age-specific model assumed to describe the dynamics of Fennoscandian moose. Based on expressions for the demographic variance     for a small subpopulation of heterozygotes Aa bearing a rare neutral allele a , we use this model to calculate how different harvest strategies influence the effective size of the population, given that the population remains stable after harvest. We show that the annual genetic drift, determined by     , increases with decreasing harvest rate of calves and increasing sex bias in the harvest towards bulls 1 year or older. The effective population size per generation decreased with reduced harvest of calves and increased harvest of bulls 1 year or older. The magnitude of these effects depends on the age-specific pattern of variation in reproductive success, which influences the demographic variance. This shows that the choice of harvest strategy strongly affects the genetic dynamics of harvested ungulate populations.  相似文献   

17.
Solberg EJ  Heim M  Grøtan V  Saether BE  Garel M 《Oecologia》2007,154(2):259-271
A general feature of the demography of large ungulates is that many demographic traits are dependent on female body mass at early ages. Thus, identifying the factors affecting body mass variation can give important mechanistic understanding of demographic processes. Here we relate individual variation in autumn and winter body mass of moose calves living at low density on an island in northern Norway to characteristics of their mother, and examine how these relationships are affected by annual variation in population density and climate. Body mass increased with increasing age of their mother, was lower for calves born late in the spring, decreased with litter size and was larger for males than for female calves. No residual effects of variation in density and climate were present after controlling for annual variation in mother age and calving date. The annual variation in adult female age structure and calving date explained a large part (71–75%) of the temporal variation in calf body mass. These results support the hypotheses that (a) body mass of moose calves are affected by qualities associated with mother age (e.g. body condition, calving date); and (b) populations living at low densities are partly buffered against temporal fluctuations in the environment.  相似文献   

18.
Over 6,000 GPS fixes from two wolves (Canis lupus) and 30,000 GPS fixes from five moose (Alces alces) in a wolf territory in southern Scandinavia were used to assess the static and dynamic interactions between predator and prey individuals. Our results showed that wolves were closer to some of the moose when inside their home ranges than expected if they had moved independently of each other, and we also found a higher number of close encounters (<500 m) than expected. This suggests that the wolves were actively seeking the individual moose within their territory. Furthermore, the wolves showed a preference for moving on gravel forest roads, which may be used as convenient travel routes when patrolling the territory and seeking areas where the moose are. However, due to the particularly large size of the wolf territory combined with relatively high moose densities, the wolves generally spent a very small proportion of their time inside the home range of each individual moose, and the frequency of encounters between the wolves and any particular moose was very low. We suggest that the high moose:wolf ratio in this large Scandinavian wolf territory compared to that typically occurring in North America, results in a relatively low encounter frequency and a low predation risk for individual moose, as the predation pressure is spread over a high number of prey individuals.  相似文献   

19.
Recent environmental changes have influenced the ecology and biology of eastern Baltic cod. Declining somatic condition, maturation at smaller size and restricted size distribution of the population suggest that growth rates have decreased between the early 2000s and the 2010s. Extensive age estimation problems have until now precluded testing of this hypothesis. This study presents evidence for a decrease in somatic growth rate of Baltic cod. Temporal patterns of growth, condition and maturation were analysed based on two complementary analyses: length frequency mode progression derived from DATRAS bottom trawl survey data and known-age samples, where size at age was back-calculated from daily otolith growth patterns. In the known-age samples, growth was positively related to somatic condition at capture with maturity dependent differences. Immature individuals had experienced significantly lower growth and were in lower condition at capture than mature individuals. Growth rates in the known-age samples were estimated at 9.5, 7.8 and 5.7?cm per year for age classes 1, 2 and 3 respectively. Growth between age 2 and 3 decreased significantly from 8.8?cm in the 1997 year class to 7.6?cm in the 2010 year class. While the 2001 and 2004 known-age samples were representative for the population, the 2013 sample was biased towards individuals with a higher condition and growth. Complementary length frequency analysis following the length mode of fish from age 2 to age 3 confirmed growth estimates from the early 2000s, while suggesting a 37.5% lower growth in 2013 compared with 2005.  相似文献   

20.
A system for machine assisted karyotyping and chromosome analysis has been developed. The system uses a drum- or TV-scanner as input device, runs provisionally in 32 K memory, and also allows human interaction on several stages. The accuracy with which banded chromosomes are karyotyped depends strongly on the type of classifier and varies from 40 up to 80%. The accuracy of the human assisted classifier (98%) comes close to that of a skilled technician (99.5%) using manual chromosomal analysis. Due to technical and memory limitations, the time necessary for the karyotyping of one cell is too long and depends on the interaction time; however karyotyping within 5 min, including human interaction, will be possible in the near future.  相似文献   

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