Hierarchical spatial modeling of additive and dominance genetic variance for large spatial trial datasets

Summary .  This article expands upon recent interest in Bayesian hierarchical models in quantitative genetics by developing spatial process models for inference on additive and dominance genetic variance within the context of large spatially referenced trial datasets. Direct application of such models to large spatial datasets are, however, computationally infeasible because of cubic-order matrix algorithms involved in estimation. The situation is even worse in Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) contexts where such computations are performed for several iterations. Here, we discuss approaches that help obviate these hurdles without sacrificing the richness in modeling. For genetic effects, we demonstrate how an initial spectral decomposition of the relationship matrices negate the expensive matrix inversions required in previously proposed MCMC methods. For spatial effects, we outline two approaches for circumventing the prohibitively expensive matrix decompositions: the first leverages analytical results from Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes that yield computationally efficient tridiagonal structures, whereas the second derives a modified predictive process model from the original model by projecting its realizations to a lower-dimensional subspace, thereby reducing the computational burden. We illustrate the proposed methods using a synthetic dataset with additive, dominance, genetic effects and anisotropic spatial residuals, and a large dataset from a Scots pine ( Pinus sylvestris L.) progeny study conducted in northern Sweden. Our approaches enable us to provide a comprehensive analysis of this large trial, which amply demonstrates that, in addition to violating basic assumptions of the linear model, ignoring spatial effects can result in downwardly biased measures of heritability.     

Efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo implementation of Bayesian analysis of additive and dominance genetic variances in noninbred pedigrees

Accurate and fast computation of quantitative genetic variance parameters is of great importance in both natural and breeding populations. For experimental designs with complex relationship structures it can be important to include both additive and dominance variance components in the statistical model. In this study, we introduce a Bayesian Gibbs sampling approach for estimation of additive and dominance genetic variances in the traditional infinitesimal model. The method can handle general pedigrees without inbreeding. To optimize between computational time and good mixing of the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) chains, we used a hybrid Gibbs sampler that combines a single site and a blocked Gibbs sampler. The speed of the hybrid sampler and the mixing of the single-site sampler were further improved by the use of pretransformed variables. Two traits (height and trunk diameter) from a previously published diallel progeny test of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) and two large simulated data sets with different levels of dominance variance were analyzed. We also performed Bayesian model comparison on the basis of the posterior predictive loss approach. Results showed that models with both additive and dominance components had the best fit for both height and diameter and for the simulated data with high dominance. For the simulated data with low dominance, we needed an informative prior to avoid the dominance variance component becoming overestimated. The narrow-sense heritability estimates in the Scots pine data were lower compared to the earlier results, which is not surprising because the level of dominance variance was rather high, especially for diameter. In general, the hybrid sampler was considerably faster than the blocked sampler and displayed better mixing properties than the single-site sampler.     

Age and sex affect quantitative genetic parameters for dominance rank and aggression in free‐living greylag geese

Knowledge of the genetic and environmental influences on a character is pivotal for understanding evolutionary changes in quantitative traits in natural populations. Dominance and aggression are ubiquitous traits that are selectively advantageous in many animal societies and have the potential to impact the evolutionary trajectory of animal populations. Here we provide age‐ and sex‐specific estimates of additive genetic and environmental components of variance for dominance rank and aggression rate in a free‐living, human‐habituated bird population subject to natural selection. We use a long‐term data set on individually marked greylag geese (Anser anser) and show that phenotypic variation in dominance‐related behaviours contains significant additive genetic variance, parental effects and permanent environment effects. The relative importance of these variance components varied between age and sex classes, whereby the most pronounced differences concerned nongenetic components. In particular, parental effects were larger in juveniles of both sexes than in adults. In paired adults, the partner's identity had a larger influence on male dominance rank and aggression rate than in females. In sex‐ and age‐specific estimates, heritabilities did not differ significantly between age and sex classes. Adult dominance rank was only weakly genetically correlated between the sexes, leading to considerably higher heritabilities in sex‐specific estimates than across sexes. We discuss these patterns in relation to selection acting on dominance rank and aggression in different life history stages and sexes and suggest that different adaptive optima could be a mechanism for maintaining genetic variation in dominance‐related traits in free‐living animal populations.     

On the Additive and Dominant Variance and Covariance of Individuals Within the Genomic Selection Scope

Genomic evaluation models can fit additive and dominant SNP effects. Under quantitative genetics theory, additive or “breeding” values of individuals are generated by substitution effects, which involve both “biological” additive and dominant effects of the markers. Dominance deviations include only a portion of the biological dominant effects of the markers. Additive variance includes variation due to the additive and dominant effects of the markers. We describe a matrix of dominant genomic relationships across individuals, D, which is similar to the G matrix used in genomic best linear unbiased prediction. This matrix can be used in a mixed-model context for genomic evaluations or to estimate dominant and additive variances in the population. From the “genotypic” value of individuals, an alternative parameterization defines additive and dominance as the parts attributable to the additive and dominant effect of the markers. This approach underestimates the additive genetic variance and overestimates the dominance variance. Transforming the variances from one model into the other is trivial if the distribution of allelic frequencies is known. We illustrate these results with mouse data (four traits, 1884 mice, and 10,946 markers) and simulated data (2100 individuals and 10,000 markers). Variance components were estimated correctly in the model, considering breeding values and dominance deviations. For the model considering genotypic values, the inclusion of dominant effects biased the estimate of additive variance. Genomic models were more accurate for the estimation of variance components than their pedigree-based counterparts.     

Can dominance genetic variance be ignored in evolutionary quantitative genetic analyses of wild populations?

Accurately estimating genetic variance components is important for studying evolution in the wild. Empirical work on domesticated and wild outbred populations suggests that dominance genetic variance represents a substantial part of genetic variance, and theoretical work predicts that ignoring dominance can inflate estimates of additive genetic variance. Whether this issue is pervasive in natural systems is unknown, because we lack estimates of dominance variance in wild populations obtained in situ. Here, we estimate dominance and additive genetic variance, maternal variance, and other sources of nongenetic variance in eight traits measured in over 9000 wild nestlings linked through a genetically resolved pedigree. We find that dominance variance, when estimable, does not statistically differ from zero and represents a modest amount (2-36%) of genetic variance. Simulations show that (1) inferences of all variance components for an average trait are unbiased; (2) the power to detect dominance variance is low; (3) ignoring dominance can mildly inflate additive genetic variance and heritability estimates but such inflation becomes substantial when maternal effects are also ignored. These findings hence suggest that dominance is a small source of phenotypic variance in the wild and highlight the importance of proper model construction for accurately estimating evolutionary potential.     

Unraveling Additive from Nonadditive Effects Using Genomic Relationship Matrices

The application of quantitative genetics in plant and animal breeding has largely focused on additive models, which may also capture dominance and epistatic effects. Partitioning genetic variance into its additive and nonadditive components using pedigree-based models (P-genomic best linear unbiased predictor) (P-BLUP) is difficult with most commonly available family structures. However, the availability of dense panels of molecular markers makes possible the use of additive- and dominance-realized genomic relationships for the estimation of variance components and the prediction of genetic values (G-BLUP). We evaluated height data from a multifamily population of the tree species Pinus taeda with a systematic series of models accounting for additive, dominance, and first-order epistatic interactions (additive by additive, dominance by dominance, and additive by dominance), using either pedigree- or marker-based information. We show that, compared with the pedigree, use of realized genomic relationships in marker-based models yields a substantially more precise separation of additive and nonadditive components of genetic variance. We conclude that the marker-based relationship matrices in a model including additive and nonadditive effects performed better, improving breeding value prediction. Moreover, our results suggest that, for tree height in this population, the additive and nonadditive components of genetic variance are similar in magnitude. This novel result improves our current understanding of the genetic control and architecture of a quantitative trait and should be considered when developing breeding strategies.     

Inbreeding and the genetic variance in floral traits of Mimulus guttatus

The additive genetic variance, V(A), is frequently used as a measure of evolutionary potential in natural plant populations. Many plants inbreed to some extent; a notable observation given that random mating is essential to the model that predicts evolutionary change from V(A). With inbreeding, V(A) is not the only relevant component of genetic variation. Several nonadditive components emerge from the combined effects of inbreeding and genetic dominance. An important empirical question is whether these components are quantitatively significant. We use maximum likelihood estimation to extract estimates for V(A) and the nonadditive 'inbreeding components' from an experimental study of the wildflower Mimulus guttatus. The inbreeding components contribute significantly to four of five floral traits, including several measures of flower size and stigma-anther separation. These results indicate that inbreeding will substantially alter the evolutionary response to natural selection on floral characters.     

Multibreed analysis by splitting the breeding values

An equivalent model for multibreed variance covariance estimation is presented. It considers the additive case including or not the segregation variances. The model is based on splitting the additive genetic values in several independent parts depending on their genetic origin. For each part, it expresses the covariance between relatives as a partial numerator relationship matrix times the corresponding variance component. Estimation of fixed effects, random effects or variance components provided by the model are as simple as any model including several random factors. We present a small example describing the mixed model equations for genetic evaluations and two simulated examples to illustrate the Bayesian variance component estimation.     

Assumption-free estimation of heritability from genome-wide identity-by-descent sharing between full siblings

The study of continuously varying, quantitative traits is important in evolutionary biology, agriculture, and medicine. Variation in such traits is attributable to many, possibly interacting, genes whose expression may be sensitive to the environment, which makes their dissection into underlying causative factors difficult. An important population parameter for quantitative traits is heritability, the proportion of total variance that is due to genetic factors. Response to artificial and natural selection and the degree of resemblance between relatives are all a function of this parameter. Following the classic paper by R. A. Fisher in 1918, the estimation of additive and dominance genetic variance and heritability in populations is based upon the expected proportion of genes shared between different types of relatives, and explicit, often controversial and untestable models of genetic and non-genetic causes of family resemblance. With genome-wide coverage of genetic markers it is now possible to estimate such parameters solely within families using the actual degree of identity-by-descent sharing between relatives. Using genome scans on 4,401 quasi-independent sib pairs of which 3,375 pairs had phenotypes, we estimated the heritability of height from empirical genome-wide identity-by-descent sharing, which varied from 0.374 to 0.617 (mean 0.498, standard deviation 0.036). The variance in identity-by-descent sharing per chromosome and per genome was consistent with theory. The maximum likelihood estimate of the heritability for height was 0.80 with no evidence for non-genetic causes of sib resemblance, consistent with results from independent twin and family studies but using an entirely separate source of information. Our application shows that it is feasible to estimate genetic variance solely from within-family segregation and provides an independent validation of previously untestable assumptions. Given sufficient data, our new paradigm will allow the estimation of genetic variation for disease susceptibility and quantitative traits that is free from confounding with non-genetic factors and will allow partitioning of genetic variation into additive and non-additive components.     

Estimates of genetic variance in an F2 maize population

Maize (Zea mays L.) breeders have used several genetic-statistical models to study the inheritance of quantitative traits. These models provide information on the importance of additive, dominance, and epistatic genetic variance for a quantitative trait. Estimates of genetic variances are useful in understanding heterosis and determining the response to selection. The objectives of this study were to estimate additive and dominance genetic variances and the average level of dominance for an F2 population derived from the B73 x Mo17 hybrid and use weighted least squares to determine the importance of digenic epistatic variances relative to additive and dominance variances. Genetic variances were estimated using Design III and weighted least squares analyses. Both analyses determined that dominance variance was more important than additive variance for grain yield. For other traits, additive genetic variance was more important than dominance variance. The average level of dominance suggests either overdominant gene effects were present for grain yield or pseudo-overdominance because of linkage disequilibrium in the F2 population. Epistatic variances generally were not significantly different from zero and therefore were relatively less important than additive and dominance variances. For several traits estimates of additive by additive epistatic variance decreased estimates of additive genetic variance, but generally the decrease in additive genetic variance was not significant.     

Analysis of cytoplasmic and maternal effects. II. Genetic models for triploid endosperms

Genetic models for quantitative traits of triploid endosperms are proposed for the analysis of direct gene effects, cytoplasmic effects, and maternal gene effects. The maternal effect is partitioned into maternal additive and dominance components. In the full genetic model, the direct effect is partitioned into direct additive and dominance components and high-order dominance component, which are the cumulative effects of three-allele interactions. If the high-order dominance effects are of no importance, a reduced genetic model can be used. Monte Carlo simulations were conducted in this study for demonstrating unbiasedness of estimated variance and covariance components from the MINQUE (0/1) procedure, which is a minimum norm quadratic unbiased estimation (MINQUE) method setting 0 for all the prior covariances and 1 for all the prior variances. Robustness of estimating variance and covariance components for the genetic models was tested by simulations. Both full and reduced genetic models are shown to be robust for estimating variance and covariance components under several situations of no specific effects. Efficiency of predicting random genetic effects for the genetic models by the MINQUE (0/1) procedure was compared with the best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP). A worked example is given to illustrate the use of the reduced genetic model for kernel growth characteristics in corn (Zea mays L.).     

Estimation of additive, dominance and epistatic variance components using finite locus models implemented with a single-site Gibbs and a descent graph sampler

In a previous contribution, we implemented a finite locus model (FLM) for estimating additive and dominance genetic variances via a Bayesian method and a single-site Gibbs sampler. We observed a dependency of dominance variance estimates on locus number in the analysis FLM. Here, we extended the FLM to include two-locus epistasis, and implemented the analysis with two genotype samplers (Gibbs and descent graph) and three different priors for genetic effects (uniform and variable across loci, uniform and constant across loci, and normal). Phenotypic data were simulated for two pedigrees with 6300 and 12,300 individuals in closed populations, using several different, non-additive genetic models. Replications of these data were analysed with FLMs differing in the number of loci. Simulation results indicate that the dependency of non-additive genetic variance estimates on locus number persisted in all implementation strategies we investigated. However, this dependency was considerably diminished with normal priors for genetic effects as compared with uniform priors (constant or variable across loci). Descent graph sampling of genotypes modestly improved variance components estimation compared with Gibbs sampling. Moreover, a larger pedigree produced considerably better variance components estimation, suggesting this dependency might originate from data insufficiency. As the FLM represents an appealing alternative to the infinitesimal model for genetic parameter estimation and for inclusion of polygenic background variation in QTL mapping analyses, further improvements are warranted and might be achieved via improvement of the sampler or treatment of the number of loci as an unknown.     

Effects of genetic drift on variance components under a general model of epistasis

We analyze the changes in the mean and variance components of a quantitative trait caused by changes in allele frequencies, concentrating on the effects of genetic drift. We use a general representation of epistasis and dominance that allows an arbitrary relation between genotype and phenotype for any number of diallelic loci. We assume initial and final Hardy-Weinberg and linkage equilibrium in our analyses of drift-induced changes. Random drift generates transient linkage disequilibria that cause correlations between allele frequency fluctuations at different loci. However, we show that these have negligible effects, at least for interactions among small numbers of loci. Our analyses are based on diffusion approximations that summarize the effects of drift in terms of F, the inbreeding coefficient, interpreted as the expected proportional decrease in heterozygosity at each locus. For haploids, the variance of the trait mean after a population bottleneck is var(delta(z)) = sigma(n)k=1 FkV(A(k)), where n is the number of loci contributing to the trait variance, V(A(1)) = V(A) is the additive genetic variance, and V(A(k)) is the kth-order additive epistatic variance. The expected additive genetic variance after the bottleneck, denoted (V*(A)), is closely related to var(delta(z)); (V*(A)) = (1 - F) sigma(n)k=1 kFk-1V(A(k)). Thus, epistasis inflates the expected additive variance above V(A)(1 - F), the expectation under additivity. For haploids (and diploids without dominance), the expected value of every variance component is inflated by the existence of higher order interactions (e.g., third-order epistasis inflates (V*(AA. This is not true in general with diploidy, because dominance alone can reduce (V*(A)) below V(A)(1 - F) (e.g., when dominant alleles are rare). Without dominance, diploidy produces simple expressions: var(delta(z)) = sigma(n)k=1 (2F)kV(A(k)) and (V(A)) = (1 - F) sigma(n)k=1 k(2F)k-1V(A(k)). With dominance (and even without epistasis), var(delta(z)) and (V*(A)) no longer depend solely on the variance components in the base population. For small F, the expected additive variance simplifies to (V*(A)) approximately equal to (1 - F)V(A) + 4FV(AA) + 2FV(D) + 2FC(AD), where C(AD) is a sum of two terms describing covariances between additive effects and dominance and additive X dominance interactions. Whether population bottlenecks lead to expected increases in additive variance depends primarily on the ratio of nonadditive to additive genetic variance in the base population, but dominance precludes simple predictions based solely on variance components. We illustrate these results using a model in which genotypic values are drawn at random, allowing extreme and erratic epistatic interactions. Although our analyses clarify the conditions under which drift is expected to increase V(A), we question the evolutionary importance of such increases.     

Combining capture–recapture data and pedigree information to assess heritability of demographic parameters in the wild

Quantitative genetic analyses have been increasingly used to estimate the genetic basis of life‐history traits in natural populations. Imperfect detection of individuals is inherent to studies that monitor populations in the wild, yet it is seldom accounted for by quantitative genetic studies, perhaps leading to flawed inference. To facilitate the inclusion of imperfect detection of individuals in such studies, we develop a method to estimate additive genetic variance and assess heritability for binary traits such as survival, using capture–recapture (CR) data. Our approach combines mixed‐effects CR models with a threshold model to incorporate discrete data in a standard ‘animal model’ approach. We employ Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling in a Bayesian framework to estimate model parameters. We illustrate our approach using data from a wild population of blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus) and present the first estimate of heritability of adult survival in the wild. In agreement with the prediction that selection should deplete additive genetic variance in fitness, we found that survival had low heritability. Because the detection process is incorporated, capture–recapture animal models (CRAM) provide unbiased quantitative genetics analyses of longitudinal data collected in the wild.     

Influence of mom and dad: quantitative genetic models for maternal effects and genomic imprinting

The expression of an imprinted gene is dependent on the sex of the parent it was inherited from, and as a result reciprocal heterozygotes may display different phenotypes. In contrast, maternal genetic terms arise when the phenotype of an offspring is influenced by the phenotype of its mother beyond the direct inheritance of alleles. Both maternal effects and imprinting may contribute to resemblance between offspring of the same mother. We demonstrate that two standard quantitative genetic models for deriving breeding values, population variances and covariances between relatives, are not equivalent when maternal genetic effects and imprinting are acting. Maternal and imprinting effects introduce both sex-dependent and generation-dependent effects that result in differences in the way additive and dominance effects are defined for the two approaches. We use a simple example to demonstrate that both imprinting and maternal genetic effects add extra terms to covariances between relatives and that model misspecification may over- or underestimate true covariances or lead to extremely variable parameter estimation. Thus, an understanding of various forms of parental effects is essential in correctly estimating quantitative genetic variance components.     

The Contribution of Quantitative Trait Loci and Neutral Marker Loci to the Genetic Variances and Covariances among Quantitative Traits in Random Mating Populations

Using Cockerham's approach of orthogonal scales, we develop genetic models for the effect of an arbitrary number of multiallelic quantitative trait loci (QTLs) or neutral marker loci (NMLs) upon any number of quantitative traits. These models allow the unbiased estimation of the contributions of a set of marker loci to the additive and dominance variances and covariances among traits in a random mating population. The method has been applied to an analysis of allozyme and quantitative data from the European oyster. The contribution of a set of marker loci may either be real, when the markers are actually QTLs, or apparent, when they are NMLs that are in linkage disequilibrium with hidden QTLs. Our results show that the additive and dominance variances contributed by a set of NMLs are always minimum estimates of the corresponding variances contributed by the associated QTLs. In contrast, the apparent contribution of the NMLs to the additive and dominance covariances between two traits may be larger than, equal to or lower than the actual contributions of the QTLs. We also derive an expression for the expected variance explained by the correlation between a quantitative trait and multilocus heterozygosity. This correlation explains only a part of the genetic variance contributed by the markers, i.e., in general, a combination of additive and dominance variances and, thus, provides only very limited information relative to the method supplied here.     

Age-dependent genetic variance in a life-history trait in the mute swan

Genetic variance in characters under natural selection in natural populations determines the way those populations respond to that selection. Whether populations show temporal and/or spatial constancy in patterns of genetic variance and covariance is regularly considered, as this will determine whether selection responses are constant over space and time. Much less often considered is whether characters show differing amounts of genetic variance over the life-history of individuals. Such age-specific variation, if present, has important potential consequences for the force of natural selection and for understanding the causes of variation in quantitative characters. Using data from a long-term study of the mute swan Cygnus olor, we report the partitioning of phenotypic variance in timing of breeding (subject to strong natural selection) into component parts over 12 different age classes. We show that the additive genetic variance and heritability of this trait are strongly age-dependent, with higher additive genetic variance present in young and, particularly, old birds, but little evidence of any genetic variance for birds of intermediate ages. These results demonstrate that age can have a very important influence on the components of variation of characters in natural populations, and consequently that separate age classes cannot be assumed to be equivalent, either with respect to their evolutionary potential or response.     

Mixed Model Methods for Genomic Prediction and Variance Component Estimation of Additive and Dominance Effects Using SNP Markers

We established a genomic model of quantitative trait with genomic additive and dominance relationships that parallels the traditional quantitative genetics model, which partitions a genotypic value as breeding value plus dominance deviation and calculates additive and dominance relationships using pedigree information. Based on this genomic model, two sets of computationally complementary but mathematically identical mixed model methods were developed for genomic best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP) and genomic restricted maximum likelihood estimation (GREML) of additive and dominance effects using SNP markers. These two sets are referred to as the CE and QM sets, where the CE set was designed for large numbers of markers and the QM set was designed for large numbers of individuals. GBLUP and associated accuracy formulations for individuals in training and validation data sets were derived for breeding values, dominance deviations and genotypic values. Simulation study showed that GREML and GBLUP generally were able to capture small additive and dominance effects that each accounted for 0.00005–0.0003 of the phenotypic variance and GREML was able to differentiate true additive and dominance heritability levels. GBLUP of the total genetic value as the summation of additive and dominance effects had higher prediction accuracy than either additive or dominance GBLUP, causal variants had the highest accuracy of GREML and GBLUP, and predicted accuracies were in agreement with observed accuracies. Genomic additive and dominance relationship matrices using SNP markers were consistent with theoretical expectations. The GREML and GBLUP methods can be an effective tool for assessing the type and magnitude of genetic effects affecting a phenotype and for predicting the total genetic value at the whole genome level.     

Epistasis Is a Major Determinant of the Additive Genetic Variance in Mimulus guttatus

The influence of genetic interactions (epistasis) on the genetic variance of quantitative traits is a major unresolved problem relevant to medical, agricultural, and evolutionary genetics. The additive genetic component is typically a high proportion of the total genetic variance in quantitative traits, despite that underlying genes must interact to determine phenotype. This study estimates direct and interaction effects for 11 pairs of Quantitative Trait Loci (QTLs) affecting floral traits within a single population of Mimulus guttatus. With estimates of all 9 genotypes for each QTL pair, we are able to map from QTL effects to variance components as a function of population allele frequencies, and thus predict changes in variance components as allele frequencies change. This mapping requires an analytical framework that properly accounts for bias introduced by estimation errors. We find that even with abundant interactions between QTLs, most of the genetic variance is likely to be additive. However, the strong dependency of allelic average effects on genetic background implies that epistasis is a major determinant of the additive genetic variance, and thus, the population’s ability to respond to selection.     

A MULTILOCUS TEST OF SIMULTANEOUS DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA USING SNAPPING SHRIMP IN THE GENUS ALPHEUS

The completion of the Panamanian Isthmus is one of the greatest natural experiments in evolution, sending multiple species pairs from a broad range of taxonomic groups on independent evolutionary trajectories. The resulting transisthmian sister species have been used as model systems for examining consequences that accompany cessation of gene flow in formerly panmictic populations. However, variance in pairwise genetic distances of these "geminates" often exceeds expectations, seemingly conflicting with the assumption that separation of populations was contemporaneous with the final closure of the Isthmus. Multilocus datasets and coalescent-based analytical methods can be used to estimate divergence times while accounting for variance in gene divergence that predates isolation, thus removing the need to invoke unequal divergence times. Here we present results from Bayesian analyses of sequence data from seven nuclear and one mitochondrial marker in eight transisthmian species pairs in the snapping shrimp genus Alpheus . Divergence times in two species pairs were shown to occur much earlier than the Isthmus final closure, but much of the variance in pairwise genetic distances from cytochrome oxidase I (COI) was explained when ancestral polymorphisms were accounted for. Results illustrate how coalescent approaches may be more appropriate for dating recent divergences than for estimating ancient speciation events.