Harbor seal population decline in the Aleutian Archipelago

Populations of Steller sea lions, northern fur seals, and northern sea otters declined substantially during recent decades in the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands region, yet the population status of harbor seals has not been assessed adequately. We determined that counts obtained during skiff‐based surveys conducted in 1977–1982 represent the earliest estimate of harbor seal abundance throughout the Aleutian Islands. By comparing counts from 106 islands surveyed in 1977–1982 (8,601 seals) with counts from the same islands during a 1999 aerial survey (2,859 seals), we observed a 67% decline over the ～20‐yr period. Regionally, the largest decline of 86% was in the western Aleutians (n= 7 islands), followed by 66% in the central Aleutians (n= 64 islands), and 45% in the eastern Aleutians (n= 35 islands). Harbor seal counts decreased at the majority of islands in each region, the number of islands with >100 seals decreased ～70%, and the number of islands with no seals counted increased ～80%, indicating that harbor seal abundance throughout the Aleutian Islands was substantially lower in the late 1990s than in the 1970s and 1980s.     

CHANGES IN ABUNDANCE OF HARBOR SEALS IN MAINE, 1981–2001

Aerial counts of harbor seals ( Pboca vitulina concolor ) on ledges along the Maine coast were conducted during the pupping season in 1981, 1986, 1993, 1997, and 2001. Between 1981 and 2001, the uncorrected counts of seals increased from 10,543 to 38,014, an annual rate of 6.6 percent. In 2001 30 harbor seals were captured and radio-tagged prior to aerial counts. Of these, 19 harbor seals (six adult males, two adult females, seven juvenile males, and four juvenile females) were available during the survey to develop a correction factor for the fraction of seals not observed. The corrected 2001 abundance estimate was 99,340 harbor seals. Productivity in this population has increased since 1981 from 6.4% pups to 24.4% pups. The number of gray seals ( Halichoerus grypus ) counted during the harbor seal surveys increased from zero in both 1981 and 1986 to 1,731 animals in 2001.     

THE DISTRIBUTION, ABUNDANCE AND SELECTED PREY OF THE HARBOR SEAL, PHOCA VITULINA CONCOLOR, IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND

The seasonal distribution and abundance of harbor seals occurring south of Maine were documented by counting the number of seals at traditional haulout locations. The average number of seals counted during each survey in Massachusetts and New Hampshire was 3,560 ± 255 (95% CI), 1983–1987. The maximum number of seals counted on any individual survey was 4,736 individuals. Fifty percent of all the surveys since January 1985 have resulted in counts greater than 4,000 seals reflecting a 27% increase in the abundance of seals in our study area since that date. Seventy-five percent of the seals in southern New England are located at haulout sites on Cape Cod and Nantucket Island. The largest aggregation of seals in the eastern United States occurs mid-winter at Monomoy Island and adjacent shoals. A single high count of 1,672 seals occurred at this site during the study period. An additional 271–374 seals were also counted in Rhode Island, Connecticut and eastern Long Island Sound during surveys conducted in March 1986 and 1987. The American sandlance Ammodytes americanus was the single dominant prey item of harbor seals in waters adjacent to Cape Cod based on the modified frequency of occurrence of each prey species in scat samples collected from three haulout sites on Cape Cod between 1984–1987. During January and February sandlance was the near exclusive prey item at Monomoy (99%, n= 80). During March and April, the frequency of Atlantic herring Clupea harengus increased in the scat samples at this site. Regional differences in the diet of seals reflect distinct prey communities throughout the study area. Since 1986, the percent occurrence and importance of sandlance in the diet of seals has decreased, reflecting an overall decrease in abundance of this prey species in waters adjacent to Cape Cod. In spite of fluctuations in abundance, and regional differences in the diet of seals throughout the study area, sandlance still comprised a minimum 55% of the total prey species of harbor seals throughout the study area.     

LONG-TERM TRENDS IN HARBOR SEAL NUMBERS AT TUGIDAK ISLAND AND NANVAK BAY, ALASKA

We conducted land‐based counts of harbor seals (Phoca vitulina richardii) and collected related environmental data at Tugidak Island (Gulf of Alaska, 1994–2000) and Nanvak Bay (Bristol Bay, 1990–2000) to estimate population trends and identify factors influencing counts. At Tugidak Island, the seal population declined substantially during molting from 1976 through the 1980s, stabilized in the early 1990s, and increased at a moderate rate (3.4%/yr, CI: 1.0%–5.8%) from 1994 to 2000. Pups and all seals ashore during pupping increased at higher annual rates of 5.4% (CI: 2.2%–8.8%) and 8.3% (CI: 4.5%–12.3%) from 1994 to 2000 at Tugidak Island. At Nanvak Bay seals declined in abundance between 1975 and 1990 but increased during the 1990s at 9.2%/yr (CI: 7.2%–11.3%) during pupping and 2.1%/yr (CI: 0.6%–3.6%) during molting. Date and time‐of‐day were significant covariates in all analyses. Factors that led to declines at Tugidak Island and Nanvak Bay have seemingly abated sufficiently such that these populations are currently increasing, though still greatly reduced from the 1970s. Index sites are useful adjuncts to aerial surveys, providing survey‐related information not always available from aerial counts, which is useful in survey design and data analysis.     

THE ABUNDANCE OF HARBOR SEALS IN THE GULF OF ALASKA

The abundance of harbor seals ( Phoca vitulina richardii ) has declined in recent decades at several Alaska locations. The causes of these declines are unknown, but there is concern about the status of the populations, especially in the Gulf of Alaska. To assess the status of harbor seals in the Gulf of Alaska, we conducted aerial surveys of seals on their haul-out sites in August-September 1996. Many factors influence the propensity of seals to haul out, including tides, weather, time of day, and time of year. Because these "covariates" cannot simultaneously be controlled through survey design, we used a regression model to adjust the counts to an estimate of the number of seals that would have been ashore during a hypothetical survey conducted under ideal conditions for hauling out. The regression, a generalized additive model, not only provided an adjustment for the covariates, but also confirmed the nature and shape of the covariate effects on haul-out behavior. The number of seals hauled out was greatest at the beginning of the surveys (mid-August). There was a broad daily peak from about 1100–1400 local solar time. The greatest numbers were hauled out at low tide on terrestrial sites. Tidal state made little difference in the numbers hauled out on glacial ice, where the area available to seals did not fluctuate with the tide. Adjusting the survey counts to the ideal state for each covariate produced an estimate of 30,035 seals, about 1.8 times the total of the unadjusted counts (16,355 seals). To the adjusted count, we applied a correction factor of 1.198 from a separate study of two haul-out sites elsewhere in Alaska, to produce a total abundance estimate of 35,981 (SE 1,833). This estimate accounts both for the effect of covariates on survey counts and for the proportion of seals that remained in the water even under ideal conditions for hauling out.     

TRENDS IN ABUNDANCE AND CURRENT STATUS OF HARBOR SEALS IN OREGON: 1977–2003

The distribution and abundance of harbor seals ( Phoca vitulina richardii ) in Oregon were monitored from 1977 to 2003 by aerial photographic surveys. Harbor seals on shore were counted each year during the reproductive period. Mean annual counts of non-pups (adults and subadults) were used as an index of population size and the trend in the counts was modeled using exponential (density-independent) and generalized logistic (density-dependent) growth models. Models were fit using maximum likelihood and evaluated using Akaike's Information Criterion. The population dynamics of harbor seals in Oregon were best described by the generalized logistic model. The population grew following protection under the Marine Mammal Protection Act of 1972 until stabilizing in the early 1990s. The estimated absolute abundance of harbor seals (all age classes) during the 2002 reproductive period was 10,087 individuals (95% confidence interval was 8,445–12,046 individuals). The current predicted population size for harbor seals in Oregon is above its estimated maximum net productivity level and hence within its optimum sustainable population range. We speculate that recent increases in ocean productivity in the eastern Pacific Ocean may lead to an increase in carrying capacity and renewed growth in Oregon's harbor seal population.     

EVALUATION OF THE ALASKA HARBOR SEAL (PHOCA VITULINA) POPULATION SURVEY: A SIMULATION STUDY

We used simulation to investigate robust designs and analyses for detecting trends from population surveys of Alaska harbor seals. We employed an operating model approach, creating simulated harbor seal population dynamics and haul-out behavior that incorporated factors thought to potentially affect the performance of aerial surveys. The factors included the number of years, the number of haul-out sites in an area, the number and timing of surveys within a year, known and unknown covariates affecting haul-out behavior, substrate effects, movement among substrates, and variability in survey and population parameters. We found estimates of population trend were robust to the majority of potentially confounding factors, and that adjusting counts for the effects of covariates was both possible and beneficial. The use of mean or maximum counts by site without covariate correction can lead to substantial bias and low power in trend determination. For covariate-corrected trend estimates, there was minimal bias and loss of accuracy was negligible when surveys were conducted 20 d before or after peak haul-out attendance, survey date became progressively earlier across years, and peak attendance fluctuated across years. Trend estimates were severely biased when the effect of an unknown covariate resulted in a long-term trend in the fraction of the population hauled out. A key factor governing the robustness and power of harbor seal population surveys is intersite variability in trend. This factor is well understood for sites within the Prince William Sound and Kodiak trend routes for which at least 10 consecutive annual surveys have been conducted, but additional annual counts are needed for other areas. The operating model approach proved to be an effective means of evaluating these surveys and should be used to evaluate other marine mammal survey designs.     

Mark-resight estimates of seasonal variation in harbor seal abundance and site fidelity

Monitoring trends in abundance of pinnipeds typically involves counting seals at terrestrial haul-out sites during the breeding season. Counts of seals made at other times of the year are typically lower; however, it is often unknown whether this is because fewer animals are present or whether lower counts simply reflect a reduction in haul-out probability. Here we illustrate how photo-identification data from an individual-based study of harbor seals (Phoca vitulina) can be used to estimate seasonal variation in abundance and site fidelity. Monthly data collected over a two-year period were analyzed using a mark-recapture mark-resight model accounting for individuals transitioning between observable and unobservable states. Levels of site fidelity were high throughout the year and abundance estimates showed no seasonal pattern. This suggests that individual seals used haul-out sites to the same extent throughout the year, and that peaks in counts during the breeding season are a result of seasonal changes in haul-out probability. The results of this study have implications for understanding population sub-structuring, gene flow and disease spread.     

SPRING HAUL-OUT BEHAVIOR OF RINGED SEALS (PUSA HISPIDA) IN KONGSFJORDEN, SVALBARD

Haul‐out behavior of ringed seals (Pusa hispida) was investigated during the spring molting period of 2003 (May–July) in Kongsfjorden, Svalbard, Norway. Hourly counts were conducted on the land‐fast ice in six spatially defined sectors in the inner fjord, from an elevated land‐based vantage point from early May through until the ice began to break up in June, from 0600 to 2200 daily (total counts n= 478). Concomitantly, measurements were made of a variety of weather parameters. Multiple regression analyses revealed that time of day (P < 0.001) and date (P < 0.001) significantly affected the number of ringed seals hauled out on the ice surface. Other factors influencing the number of seals counted on the ice were air temperature (P= 0.011) and wind speed (P < 0.001). Daily peaks occurred in the early afternoon between 1300 and 1400 and the seasonal high (n= 385) was registered during the first week in June, after which the number of seals on the ice in the fjord declined. In addition to the visual counts, 24 ringed seals were equipped with VHF transmitters, and the haul‐out behavior of individuals was monitored from May through July via an automatic recording station. The VHF‐tagged seals exhibited the same diurnal pattern seen in the total counts, with haul‐out most frequent from 1300 to 1400. Pups exhibited short and frequent haul‐outs, whereas longer haul‐out periods were seen in the older age classes; adult females had the greatest number of haul‐out periods that exceeded 24 h. The seasonal peak of haul‐out for the tagged seals preceded the peak seasonal counts by approximately 3 wk. This may reflect significant out‐ and influx of seals from and to the area, a phenomenon warranting further attention because of its implications for assessment studies.     

COLONIZATION HISTORY OF THE BALTIC HARBOR SEALS: INTEGRATING ARCHAEOLOGICAL, BEHAVIORAL, AND GENETIC DATA

Detailed knowledge about the history of colonization, population dynamics and behavior greatly enhance evaluation of genetic models of population units and migration rates in spatially structured populations. Here, the genetic uniqueness of harbor seals ( Phoca vitulinia ) in the eastern Baltic is evaluated in the light of new information on the distribution and abundance of Baltic and eastern North Sea populations during the last 11,000 yr, recent hunting statistics, and population counts. Archaeological records reveal that the Baltic population of harbor seals was founded about 8,000 yr ago. Adjacent populations in the North Sea areas were either small, or went extinct, and became significant only during the last 300 yr. This information generates the hypothesis that the Baltic population has been isolated during the last 8,000 yr, despite the lack of geographical barriers. We show that stochastic effects, isolation, and a documented recent population bottleneck can account for the low observed genetic variation in Baltic harbor seals.     

MOLTING PHENOLOGY OF HARBOR SEALS ON TUGIDAK ISLAND, ALASKA

We documented the progression and timing of the annual molt of harbor seals on Tugidak Island, Alaska, from 1997 to 1999. In all years the timing of molting differed among age-sex classes. Yearlings molted first, subadults second, adult females third, and lastly adult males. Timing of molting was nearly identical in 1997–1998, whereas in 1999 molting occurred three to six days later for all age-sex classes except yearlings. Estimated dates when peak proportions of each age-sex class were molting ranged from 2 August (yearlings) to 2 September (adult males). The number of seals hauled out was positively related to the proportion of seals in the molt and negatively related to the proportion of seals in the postmolt. Population trend estimates, based on aerial counts conducted during a narrow window within the molting period, are likely biased toward certain age-sex classes. Statistical models used to estimate trend include covariates to help account for within-year variation in seal numbers, but do not account for compositional changes that occur during molting. Population modeling may elucidate the effects of within-year population structure on trend estimates. Monitoring molting phenology at additional sites is necessary to determine the extent of geographic variation in molting.     

A REASSESSMENT OF THE IMPACT OF THE EXXON VALDEZ OIL SPILL ON HARBOR SEALS (PHOCA VITULINA RICHARDSI) IN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND, ALASKA

Analyses of population trends and movements of harbor seals in Prince William Sound (PWS) casts doubt on published findings that 302 seals were killed by the Exxon Valdez oil spill in 1989. Assumptions that seals have 100% fidelity to a haul-out, that they were not displaced by the spill and associated disturbances, and that population trends throughout PWS varied similarly, except for oil spill effects, are not supported. Survey efforts to account for missing seals in 1989 were incomplete, too late in the year, and geographically limited. Basic assumptions required for statistical comparisons of oiled and unoiled haul-outs were violated. Fourteen dead seals, mostly pups, were recovered in PWS. Cause of death in most instances could not be determined, nor could the proportion that would have died naturally. Evidence does not support high unsubstantiated mortality, but is more consistent with seals avoiding or moving away from some oiled haul-outs. Interpretation of survey results requires consideration of temporal and regional variation. "Route A" surveys of central and eastern PWS do not represent population trends in western PWS or at glacial haul-outs. To adequately monitor population trends of PWS as a whole, broader sampling must be conducted on a routine basis.     

Temporal records of δ13C and δ15N in North Pacific pinnipeds: inferences regarding environmental change and diet

Sea lion and seal populations in Alaskan waters underwent various degrees of decline during the latter half of the twentieth century and the cause(s) for the declines remain uncertain. The stable carbon (¹³C/¹²C) and nitrogen (¹⁵N/¹⁴N) isotope ratios in bone collagen from wild Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus), northern fur seals (Callorhinus ursinus) and harbor seals (Phoca vitulina) from the Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska were measured for the period 1951-1997 to test the hypothesis that a change in trophic level may have occurred during this interval and contributed to the population declines. A significant change in '¹⁵N in pinniped tissues over time would imply a marked change in trophic level. No significant change in bone collagen '¹⁵N was found for any of the three species during the past 47 years in either the Bering Sea or the Gulf of Alaska. However, the ¹⁵N in the Steller sea lion collagen was significantly higher than both northern fur seals and harbor seals. A significant decline in '¹³C (almost 2 ‰ over the 47 years) was evident in Steller sea lions, while a declining trend, though not significant, was evident in harbor seals and northern fur seals. Changes in foraging location, in combination with a trophic shift, may offer one possible explanation. Nevertheless, a decrease in '¹³C over time with no accompanying change in '¹⁵N suggests an environmental change affecting the base of the foodweb rather than a trophic level change due to prey switching. A decline in the seasonal primary production in the region, possibly resulting from decreased phytoplankton growth rates, would exhibit itself as a decline in '¹³C. Declining production could be an indication of a reduced carrying capacity in the North Pacific Ocean. Sufficient quantities of optimal prey species may have fallen below threshold sustaining densities for these pinnipeds, particularly for yearlings and subadults who have not yet developed adequate foraging skills.     

An apparent population decrease,or change in distribution,of Weddell seals along the Victoria Land coast

Ground counts during 1959–1968 compared with counts using high resolution (0.6 m²) satellite imagery during 2008–2012 indicated many fewer Weddell seals (Leptonychotes weddellii) at two major molting areas in the western Ross Sea: Edisto Inlet‐Moubray Bay, northern Victoria Land, and McMurdo Sound, southern Victoria Land. Breeding seals have largely disappeared from Edisto‐Moubray, though the breeding population in McMurdo Sound appears to have recovered from harvest in the 1960s. The timing of decline, or perhaps spreading (lower numbers of seals in more places), is unknown but appears unrelated to changes in sea ice conditions. We analyzed both historic and satellite‐derived ice data confirming a large expansion of pack ice mostly offshore of the Ross Sea, and not over the continental shelf (main Weddell seal habitat), and a thinning of fast ice along Victoria Land (conceivably beneficial to seals). Timing of fast ice presence and extent in coves and bays along Victoria Land, remains the same. The reduction in numbers is consistent with an altered food web, the reasons for which are complex. In the context of a recent industrial fishery targeting a seal prey species, a large‐scale seal monitoring program is required to increase understanding of seal population changes.     

Trap catches of the sweetpotato whitefly （Homoptera： Aleyrodidae） in the Imperial Valley, California, from 1996 to 2002

An outbreak of the sweetpotato whitefly, Bemisia tabaci （Gennadius）, biotype B occurred in the Imperial Valley, California in 1991. The insects destroyed melon crops and seriously damaged other vegetables, ornamentals and row crops. As a result of the need for sampling technology, we developed a whitefly trap （named the CC trap） that could be left in the field for extended time periods. We used the traps to monitor populations ofB. tabaci adults during year-round samplings from 1996 to 2002 to study variations in the weekly trap catches of the insect. The greatest number ofB. tabaci adults was recorded in 1996, followed by a continuing annual decrease in trap catches each year through 2002. The overall decline of B. tabaci is attributed in part to the adoption of an integrated pest management （IPM） program initiated in 1992 and reduced melon hectares from 1996 to 2002. Other factors may also have contributed to the population reductions. Seasonally, B. tabaci trap catches decreased during the late summer and fall concurrent with decreasing minimum tempera- tares that are suggested to be a significant factor affecting seasonal activity and reproduction.     

CORRECTING AERIAL SURVEY COUNTS OF HARBOR SEALS (PHOCA VITULINA RICHARDSI) IN WASHINGTON AND OREGON

Aerial surveys of harbor seals on land produce only a minimum assessment of the population; a correction factor to account for the missing animals is necessary to estimate total abundance. In 1991 and 1992, VHF radio tags were deployed on harbor seals ( n = 124) at six sites in Washington and Oregon. During aerial surveys a correction factor to account for seals in the water was determined from the proportion of radio-tagged seals on shore during the pupping season. This proportion ranged from 0.54 to 0.74. Among the six sites there was no significant difference in the proportion of animals on shore nor was there a difference in age/sex categories of seals on shore between sites. The pooled correction factor for determining total population abundance was 1.53. An additional 32 seals were radio tagged in 1993 at one of the sites used in 1991. Comparing data from the two years, we found no interannual variation. Aerial surveys of all known harbor seal haul-out sites in Washington ( n = 319) and Oregon ( n = 68) were flown during the peak of the pupping season, 1991–1993. The Washington and Oregon harbor seal population was divided into two stocks based on pupping phenology, morphometics, and genetics. Mean counts for the Washington inland stock were 8,710 in 1991, 9,018 in 1992, and 10,092 in 1993. Oregon and Washington coastal stock mean counts were 18,363 in 1991, 18,556 in 1992, and 17,762 in 1993. Multiplying the annual count by the correction factor yielded estimates of harbor seal abundance in the Washington inland stock of 13,326 (95% CI = 11,637–15,259) for 1991, 13,798 (95% CI = 11,980–15,890) for 1992, and 15,440 (95% CI = 13,382–17,814) for 1993. In the Oregon and Washington coastal stock the corrected estimate of harbor seal abundance was 28,094 (95% CI = 24,697–31,960) in 1991, 28,391 (95% CI = 24,847–32,440) for 1992, and 27,175 (95% CI = 23,879–30,926) for 1993.     

Natural and human effects on harbor seal abundance and spatial distribution in an Alaskan glacial fjord

Tidewater glacial fjords support the largest populations of harbor seals (Phoca vitulina richardii) in Alaska and are a prime destination for tour ships. Chronic disturbance from ships, however subtle, could impact long‐term population stability. We examined variation in abundance and distribution of harbor seals on floating ice in Disenchantment Bay, Alaska, a tour ship destination for over a century with near daily visitation by ships in the spring/summer over the last decade. Counts of seals by aerial transect showed a sharp decline in May, prior to pupping and the first ships arriving; counts rebounded by the end of June remaining high until August. Seal distribution and abundance peaked in 5–7 tenths ice cover; total area of ice cover showed no effect. Despite regular flushing of seals by ships, we found no broad‐scale patterns in seal abundance and distribution that could be explained by ship presence. We cannot rule out mechanisms of long‐term disturbance, difficult to detect and that might explain notable differences with other, similar sites. Population declines at disturbed glacial sites and the still rising popularity of vessel‐based tourism indicate a need for individual‐based studies on how seals respond to the dynamics of glacial ice environments and human‐caused stresses.     

HEMATOLOGY VALUES OF WILD HARBOR PORPOISES (PHOCOENA PHOCOENA) FROM THE BAY OF FUNDY,CANADA

Clinical hematology values were determined for 29 harbor porpoises (Phocoena phocoena) released from herring weirs in the Bay of Fundy, Canada. Erythrocyte values exhibited narrow ranges, but there was a high degree of individual variability in counts of white blood cells. Total white cell counts ranged from 2.6 to 15.5 ± 10⁹/liter, with an overall mean of 6.5 ± 2.7 ± 10±/liter. There were significant differences among reproductive classes in mean values of total red blood cells, hematocrit (HCT), mean cell volume (MCV), mean cell hemoglobin (MCHC) and total monocyte count. Wild harbor porpoises had fewer white blood cells, lower relative total number of neutrophils and lymphocytes, and higher percentages of monocytes and eosinophils than reported in the literature for captive porpoises. Compared to published values for other odontocetes, the hemograms of harbor porpoises were most similar to those of Pacific white-sided dolphins (Lagenorhynchus acutus). These hematology data represent a baseline from free-ranging harbor porpoises that can be used as a reference for long-term monitoring of the health of this population and as a tool for rehabilitation facilities.     

ABUNDANCE OF RINGED SEALS (PUSA HISPIDA) IN THE FJORDS OF SPITSBERGEN, SVALBARD, DURING THE PEAK MOLTING PERIOD

Ringed seal (Pusa hispida) abundance in Spitsbergen, Svalbard, was estimated during the peak molting period via aerial, digital photographic surveys. A total of 9,145 images, covering 41.7%–100% of the total fast‐ice cover (1,496 km²) of 18 different fjords and bays, were inspected for the presence of ringed seals. A total of 1,708 seals were counted, and when accounting for ice areas that were not covered by images, a total of 3,254 (95% CI: 3,071–3,449) ringed seals were estimated to be hauled out during the surveys. Extensive behavioral data from radio‐tagged ringed seals (collected in a companion study) from one of the highest density fjords during the molting period were used to create a model that predicts the proportion of seals hauled out on any given date, time of day, and under various meteorological conditions. Applying this model to the count data from each fjord, we estimated that a total of 7,585 (95% CI: 6,332–9,085) ringed seals were present in the surveyed area during the peak molting period. Data on interannual variability in ringed seal abundance suggested higher numbers of seals in Van Keulenfjorden in 2002 compared to 2003, while other fjords with very stable ice cover showed no statistical differences. Poor ice conditions in general in 2002 probably resulted in seals from a wide area coming to Van Keulenfjorden (a large fjord with stable ice in 2002). The total estimated number of ringed seals present in the study area at the time of the survey must be regarded as a population index, or at least a minimum estimate for the area, because it does not account for individuals leaving and arriving, which might account for a considerable number of animals. The same situation is likely the case for many other studies reporting aerial census data for ringed seals. To achieve accurate estimates of population sizes from aerial surveys, more extensive knowledge of ringed seal behavior will be required.     

Trend changes in sympatric Subantarctic and Antarctic fur seal pup populations at Marion Island,Southern Ocean

Recent pup population estimates of sympatric Subantarctic (Arctocephalus tropicalis) and Antarctic fur seals (A. gazella) at Marion Island are presented. Published pup population estimates of A. tropicalis (1995 and 2004) with an unpublished total island count in 2013, and annual counts on subsets of rookeries (2007–2015) were analyzed using a hierarchical Bayesian model. The pup population declined by 46% (95% credible interval CI: 43%–48%) between 2004 (mean = 15,260, CI: 14,447–16,169 pups) and 2013 (mean = 8,312, CI: 7,983–8,697), mirrored by a 58%–60% decline at rookeries counted annually (2007–2015). Population decline was highest at high‐density west and north coast rookeries, despite negligible change in female attendance patterns, pup mortality or median pupping date over the previous 25 yr. A better understanding of foraging behavior and its effects on reproductive success and survival in this A. tropicalis population is needed before we can attribute population decline to any external factors. In contrast, total island counts of A. gazella pups in 2007, 2010, and 2013, suggest that this population is still increasing although the annual intrinsic rate of population growth decreased from 17.0% (1995–2004, 744 pups) to 4.0% (2010–2013, 1,553 pups). The slowed growth of A. gazella is likely the result of saturation at the main rookery.