Selection on plasticity of seasonal life-history traits using random regression mixed model analysis

Theory considers the covariation of seasonal life-history traits as an optimal reaction norm, implying that deviating from this reaction norm reduces fitness. However, the estimation of reaction-norm properties (i.e., elevation, linear slope, and higher order slope terms) and the selection on these is statistically challenging. We here advocate the use of random regression mixed models to estimate reaction-norm properties and the use of bivariate random regression to estimate selection on these properties within a single model. We illustrate the approach by random regression mixed models on 1115 observations of clutch sizes and laying dates of 361 female Ural owl Strix uralensis collected over 31 years to show that (1) there is variation across individuals in the slope of their clutch size-laying date relationship, and that (2) there is selection on the slope of the reaction norm between these two traits. Hence, natural selection potentially drives the negative covariance in clutch size and laying date in this species. The random-regression approach is hampered by inability to estimate nonlinear selection, but avoids a number of disadvantages (stats-on-stats, connecting reaction-norm properties to fitness). The approach is of value in describing and studying selection on behavioral reaction norms (behavioral syndromes) or life-history reaction norms. The approach can also be extended to consider the genetic underpinning of reaction-norm properties.     

Why climate change will invariably alter selection pressures on phenology

The seasonal timing of lifecycle events is closely linked to individual fitness and hence, maladaptation in phenological traits may impact population dynamics. However, few studies have analysed whether and why climate change will alter selection pressures and hence possibly induce maladaptation in phenology. To fill this gap, we here use a theoretical modelling approach. In our models, the phenologies of consumer and resource are (potentially) environmentally sensitive and depend on two different but correlated environmental variables. Fitness of the consumer depends on the phenological match with the resource. Because we explicitly model the dependence of the phenologies on environmental variables, we can test how differential (heterogeneous) versus equal (homogeneous) rates of change in the environmental variables affect selection on consumer phenology. As expected, under heterogeneous change, phenotypic plasticity is insufficient and thus selection on consumer phenology arises. However, even homogeneous change leads to directional selection on consumer phenology. This is because the consumer reaction norm has historically evolved to be flatter than the resource reaction norm, owing to time lags and imperfect cue reliability. Climate change will therefore lead to increased selection on consumer phenology across a broad range of situations.     

The fitness costs of developmental canalization and plasticity

Organisms are capable of an astonishing repertoire of phenotypic responses to the environment, and these often define important adaptive solutions to heterogeneous and unpredictable conditions. The terms ‘phenotypic plasticity’ and ‘canalization’ indicate whether environmental variation has a large or small effect on the phenotype. The evolution of canalization and plasticity is influenced by optimizing selection‐targeting traits within environments, but inherent fitness costs of plasticity may also be important. We present a meta‐analysis of 27 studies (of 16 species of plant and 7 animals) that have measured selection on the degree of plasticity independent of the characters expressed within environments. Costs of plasticity and canalization were equally frequent and usually mild; large costs were observed only in studies with low sample size. We tested the importance of several covariates, but only the degree of environmental stress was marginally positively related to the cost of plasticity. These findings suggest that costs of plasticity are often weak, and may influence phenotypic evolution only under stressful conditions.     

Geographical variation in insect developmental period: effect of host plant phenology on the life cycle of the bruchid seed feeder shape Kytorhinus sharpianus

The voltinism of the bruchid Kytorhinus sharpianus Bridwell (Coleoptera: Bruchidae) and the phenology of its host plant Sophora flavescens Aiton (Leguminosae) were observed at four latitudes: Aomori (40°46' N), Obanazawa (38°37' N), Kujiranami (37°21' N) and Mitsuma (36°05' N) in northeastern Honshu (Japan). Kytorhinus sharpianus life cycle ranged from bivoltine and partially trivoltine in the south to univoltine and partially bivoltine in the north. Sophora flavescens started growing later in spring at higher latitudes. However, the relative growth rate was higher in the north (Aomori) than in the south (Mitsuma). In parallel with this, the first-generation of adult K. sharpianus appeared later at higher latitudes. When the four local populations were reared at 24 °C, L16:D8 and 65% r.h., males developed faster than females. The mean developmental time showed a saw-toothed latitudinal cline. The reversion in the latitudinal trend of variation corresponded to the change in the major type of life cycles from univoltine to bivoltine. Two heat units throughout the year and post-fruiting period were calculated as the sums of degree-days above the developmental threshold (12 °C) of K. sharpianus. Both heat units decreased in parallel with each other with increasing latitude. The greater growth rate of hosts in the northern population compensated for the smaller heat units. In addition, when the heat units were divided by the degree-days needed to complete development, the numerical value was the approximate number of generations observed in each locality.     

A modular concept of phenotypic plasticity in plants

Based on empirical evidence from the literature we propose that, in nature, phenotypic plasticity in plants is usually expressed at a subindividual level. While reaction norms (i.e. the type and the degree of plant responses to environmental variation) are a property of genotypes, they are expressed at the level of modular subunits in most plants. We thus contend that phenotypic plasticity is not a whole-plant response, but a property of individual meristems, leaves, branches and roots, triggered by local environmental conditions. Communication and behavioural integration of interconnected modules can change the local responses in different ways: it may enhance or diminish local plastic effects, thereby increasing or decreasing the differences between integrated modules exposed to different conditions. Modular integration can also induce qualitatively different responses, which are not expressed if all modules experience the same conditions. We propose that the response of a plant to its environment is the sum of all modular responses to their local conditions plus all interaction effects that are due to integration. The local response rules to environmental variation, and the modular interaction rules may be seen as evolving traits targeted by natural selection. Following this notion, whole-plant reaction norms are an integrative by-product of modular plasticity, which has far-reaching methodological, ecological and evolutionary implications.