Evaluation of Local Media Surveillance for Improved Disease Recognition and Monitoring in Global Hotspot Regions

Digital disease detection tools are technologically sophisticated, but dependent on digital information, which for many areas suffering from high disease burdens is simply not an option. In areas where news is often reported in local media with no digital counterpart, integration of local news information with digital surveillance systems, such as HealthMap (Boston Children’s Hospital), is critical. Little research has been published in regards to the specific contribution of local health-related articles to digital surveillance systems. In response, the USAID PREDICT project implemented a local media surveillance (LMS) pilot study in partner countries to monitor disease events reported in print media. This research assessed the potential of LMS to enhance digital surveillance reach in five low- and middle-income countries. Over 16 weeks, select surveillance system attributes of LMS, such as simplicity, flexibility, acceptability, timeliness, and stability were evaluated to identify strengths and weaknesses in the surveillance method. Findings revealed that LMS filled gaps in digital surveillance network coverage by contributing valuable localized information on disease events to the global HealthMap database. A total of 87 health events were reported through the LMS pilot in the 16-week monitoring period, including 71 unique reports not found by the HealthMap digital detection tool. Furthermore, HealthMap identified an additional 236 health events outside of LMS. It was also observed that belief in the importance of the project and proper source selection from the participants was crucial to the success of this method. The timely identification of disease outbreaks near points of emergence and the recognition of risk factors associated with disease occurrence continue to be important components of any comprehensive surveillance system for monitoring disease activity across populations. The LMS method, with its minimal resource commitment, could be one tool used to address the information gaps seen in global ‘hot spot’ regions.     

Words Analysis of Online Chinese News Headlines about Trending Events: A Complex Network Perspective

Because the volume of information available online is growing at breakneck speed, keeping up with meaning and information communicated by the media and netizens is a new challenge both for scholars and for companies who must address public relations crises. Most current theories and tools are directed at identifying one website or one piece of online news and do not attempt to develop a rapid understanding of all websites and all news covering one topic. This paper represents an effort to integrate statistics, word segmentation, complex networks and visualization to analyze headlines’ keywords and words relationships in online Chinese news using two samples: the 2011 Bohai Bay oil spill and the 2010 Gulf of Mexico oil spill. We gathered all the news headlines concerning the two trending events in the search results from Baidu, the most popular Chinese search engine. We used Simple Chinese Word Segmentation to segment all the headlines into words and then took words as nodes and considered adjacent relations as edges to construct word networks both using the whole sample and at the monthly level. Finally, we develop an integrated mechanism to analyze the features of words’ networks based on news headlines that can account for all the keywords in the news about a particular event and therefore track the evolution of news deeply and rapidly.     

Analysing How People Orient to and Spread Rumours in Social Media by Looking at Conversational Threads

As breaking news unfolds people increasingly rely on social media to stay abreast of the latest updates. The use of social media in such situations comes with the caveat that new information being released piecemeal may encourage rumours, many of which remain unverified long after their point of release. Little is known, however, about the dynamics of the life cycle of a social media rumour. In this paper we present a methodology that has enabled us to collect, identify and annotate a dataset of 330 rumour threads (4,842 tweets) associated with 9 newsworthy events. We analyse this dataset to understand how users spread, support, or deny rumours that are later proven true or false, by distinguishing two levels of status in a rumour life cycle i.e., before and after its veracity status is resolved. The identification of rumours associated with each event, as well as the tweet that resolved each rumour as true or false, was performed by journalist members of the research team who tracked the events in real time. Our study shows that rumours that are ultimately proven true tend to be resolved faster than those that turn out to be false. Whilst one can readily see users denying rumours once they have been debunked, users appear to be less capable of distinguishing true from false rumours when their veracity remains in question. In fact, we show that the prevalent tendency for users is to support every unverified rumour. We also analyse the role of different types of users, finding that highly reputable users such as news organisations endeavour to post well-grounded statements, which appear to be certain and accompanied by evidence. Nevertheless, these often prove to be unverified pieces of information that give rise to false rumours. Our study reinforces the need for developing robust machine learning techniques that can provide assistance in real time for assessing the veracity of rumours. The findings of our study provide useful insights for achieving this aim.     

Outreach increases detections of an invasive species in a crowdsourced monitoring program

Crowdsourcing can be a useful tool for the early detection of invasive species. Invasive wild pigs (Sus scrofa) have been reported in Ontario, Canada. We compared trends in reporting frequency of wild pig sightings to trends in media events that included directions for the public on where to submit their wild pig sightings. We found that media events occurring on the same week, and in up to two weeks before the sighting was reported significantly increased the number of wild pig reports we received. Our findings suggest that media can be used to increase participation by the public. Because of this relationship, our findings also imply that reporting frequency alone cannot accurately index real changes in wild pig numbers—participants were more likely to report sightings after they had been exposed to relevant media, and spikes in the number of reports tracked our outreach efforts. Despite this limitation, reports of wild pig sightings from community members remain a cost-effective tool to detect low-density invasive species across large regions, and participation in the program can be increased with periodic news media and social media blitzes.

     

The response of the Italian press to AIDS: a 22-month analysis.

This study analyses the way in which the Italian press reported Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS) over a 22-month period from September 1993 to June 1995, when no national AIDS information campaigns were made in Italy. During this period we collected, read, and categorized every article relating to Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) and AIDS in fourteen newspapers and two news magazines with the highest national circulation. Articles were then assigned to one of six content categories: statistics, basic science, cure and vaccine, education/awareness and prevention issue, government or non-goverment organizations response, and people with AIDS (PWA) personal portrayals. A total of 4,228 articles referring to HIV/AIDS were identified. Analysis of the featured topics reveals several clear differences in the coverage of aspects of AIDS. The major category was represented by government or non-goverment organization response which accounted for 1,341 articles. Overall, this analysis suggests that, even long after the beginning of the epidemic, the press continues to see AIDS as an important issue. However, the articles explaining scientifically the AIDS epidemic were very few. The majority of AIDS-related information was spread in consequence of sensational events. Further analysis of PWA coverage shows that most articles discussed news that could provoke a negative feeling towards HIV-infected patients among the general population.     

The media and food-risk perceptions

Food scares are prime examples of how the media can sway public perceptions of risk. Scientists and regulators need to understand the complex relationship between the media and their audience if they seek to counter scare stories and put risks and benefits into context.In 1996, at the height of the scandal about mad cow disease in the UK, a guest on Oprah Winfrey''s talk show claimed that meat produced in the USA could cause bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE). “That just stopped me cold from eating another burger,” Winfrey responded. Later, beef farmers from Texas sued Winfrey''s show, claiming that it was partly responsible for the steep decline in beef prices in the USA during the following months, even though the country did not have a single case of BSE. This episode demonstrates not only the power of the media and its influence on the public, but also how easily the public is swayed, particularly by fear, even in the absence of information.Nevertheless, more information is not necessarily a panacea for disinformation. Households in developed countries have greater access to information than ever before—through television, newspapers, journals, radio and the internet—yet the public remains, ironically, poorly informed. This is most evident when consumption of a food dramatically declines after media reports about contamination or harm, or when European consumers vehemently oppose genetically modified food, despite accumulating scientific evidence that these products do not harm the environment and are safe for human consumption.There are various understandable causes of public reactions to food scares or food-health stories in the media, but the media itself sets the stage for the public''s response by choosing which information to present and, perhaps more importantly, how to present it. Extensive media coverage affects consumer perceptions of products and risks and, consequently, can influence demand for services and products.There are various understandable causes of public reactions to food scares or food-health stories in the media, but the media itself sets the stage for the public''s response…The function of the media is not to foster the public good or to reassure the public that they are safe. Most television stations and newspapers are now privately owned—many of them by one of a few huge companies. The media therefore has its own financial and other interests, and needs to please both shareholders and audiences by providing the kind of information and analysis that mass audiences expect. Similarly, other sources of information—such as agriculture and biotechnology companies, universities and farmers—have equally powerful incentives that could bias the information they are willing to share and the conclusions they seek to draw. In the USA, news coverage has always been largely commercial in this way, whereas in Europe, private companies have only become the dominant source of information during the past two decades. Moreover, the structure of the media market itself has changed with the growth of 24-hour news and the internet—notably in terms of blogs, social media and the ability to distribute videos online.The function of the media is not to foster the public good or to reassure the public that they are safeOne criticism that is often levelled at the media is that it sensationalizes news and is biased against positive news stories. Instead, the media seems to focus on negative news stories and shun careful and balanced analysis of an issue, favouring ‘sound bites'' and simplistic conclusions. Commercial news reporting tends to focus on events, such as a sudden food-safety problem or an organized event accompanying the launch of a new product or policy.The overall concern is that the increasing commercialization of the media has led to a ‘dumbing down'' of the news; that is, lower-quality journalism and less coverage of complex issues, driven by competitive pressures that have forced media companies to cut back on reporting and editorial staff in areas that do not attract many readers or viewers (Alterman, 2008; Zaller, 1999). The emergence of the 24-hour news cycle might even have further weakened journalistic standards; modern news reports have been found to contain an increasing number of factual errors (Pew, 2004).These concerns have caused many European governments to continue their subsidized public broadcasting, in order to maintain the overall quality and reliability of news and information. However, if subsidized public media cover the high-quality news market, it might further decrease the quality of coverage offered by commercial companies (Canoy & Nahuis, 2005). This argument is supported by studies of the US media market, which show that the regional expansion of so-called ‘quality'' newspapers such as The New York Times and The Washington Post has led to a reduction in the quality of local and regional newspapers (George & Waldfogel, 2006).All of this is particularly relevant in the context of food, as most consumers primarily receive information about food and biotechnology through the popular press and television (Hoban & Kendall, 1993; Marks et al, 2003). Extensive media coverage of an event can contribute to a heightened perception of risk and amplify its consequences. Food scares are prime examples of this effect: they are typically accompanied by a flood of media coverage and lead to a decline in demand for the product in question, often concomitant with a level of panic that scientists would argue is not appropriate, given the real risks.Accordingly, social scientists and psychologists have conducted research into how information shapes and determines perceived risks of food. Generally, most consumers are “rationally ignorant” (McCluskey & Swinnen, 2004); they rationally choose not to fully inform themselves about an issue. In other words, although consumers have access to huge amounts of information, they choose to be less than fully informed. There are three explanations for this attitude. First, if it costs money to access the news and doing so only provides limited benefits, it is rational not to purchase the information. Second, although reducing the price of news will make information more accessible, acquiring and processing it takes time, energy and attention. Consequently, consumers reach a threshold at which the cost of processing the information is larger than the benefit. The third reason has to do with the information source: ideological bias or distrust of a news source might cause consumers not to inform themselves fully.…although consumers have access to huge amounts of information, they choose to be less than fully informedThe decision about how much information is enough also depends on consumers'' ex ante (previous) risk perceptions. In one of the first surveys of consumer perceptions of health risks in food, van Ravenswaay (1990) concluded that most consumers acknowledge the existence of risks, but perceive them to be small. Although the public adjust their risk perceptions in the light of new information, they are only willing to pay modest amounts for information that would reduce perceived food risks. One explanation is that the cost of risk avoidance is low because consumers can stop purchasing a specific food if they learn that it poses a higher risk than they thought.In fact, ex ante beliefs tend to have a stronger influence on risk perceptions than news or other types of information. For example, many consumers think that organically produced products—which carry a higher risk of mycotoxins—are safer than more-intensively farmed crops, irrespective of information about management activities (Loureiro et al, 2001). Generally, consumers perceive natural risks as being easier to manage because they seem to be less threatening than technological risks.In general, risk perception varies between consumers, owing to many factors. Gender and education are consistent demographic predictors of food-risk perceptions. Non-demographic predictors include the nature of the perceived threat, trust in regulatory authorities, the source of the information and the way in which it is distributed, and health and environmental concerns (Ellis & Tucker, 2009). For example, consumers of organic foods perceive greater risks from pesticide residues than other consumers.Both social and individual factors can amplify or dampen perceptions of risk (Flynn et al, 1998; Koné & Mullet, 1994), and the media is an important mechanism in this process. Slovic (1987) suggests that risk perception is influenced by two factors: dread and unknown risks. Dreaded risks are those deemed to be uncontrollable, involuntary and affect many people with potentially catastrophic consequences. Unknown risks are new, uncertain and unobservable, or might have delayed effects. Food scares are often rated highly as dreaded risks, but because they are understood they receive lower ratings as unknown risks. By contrast, new food technologies, such as genetically modified foods, are rated highly as unknown risks. Thus, differences in consumer knowledge might influence risk perceptions; most scientists tend not to think that genetically modified foods are risky.Previous beliefs also have an important role in the selection and processing of information provided by the media. Poortinga & Pidgeon (2004) studied the perception of genetically modified food in the UK and found a strong confirmatory bias—selecting information that agrees with your previous beliefs; those with positive or negative beliefs interpret the same events as being in line with their attitude. Frewer et al (1997) also found that the initial attitude to genetic engineering is the most important determinant of how people assess new information about it. These attitudes remain stable, even if persuasive arguments against them are provided. In fact, initial attitudes also affect perception of the quality of information; respondents with a negative view are likely to perceive positive information about the technology as less accurate and more biased than people with positive views.The nature of the information also matters. In general, consumers give more weight to negative than positive information. This is ironic because one often-heard complaint about the media is that news coverage is too negative. This tendency is actually driven by demand (McCluskey & Swinnen, 2004), as the value of information is higher for consumers if it concerns an issue with a negative effect on welfare. The rationale is that consumers can use negative information to make decisions in order to avoid losses. As media companies care about profits, they will inevitably offer more negative stories.…consumers give more weight to negative than positive informationSiegrist & Cvetkovich (2001) conducted psychological experiments to assess this bias towards negative information in regard to health risks in food. They found that people place greater trust in results that indicate a health risk, and that confidence in the results increases with a higher indication of risk. The authors suggest three possible explanations: diagnosticity—negative information is more diagnostic than positive information, and might therefore be given greater weight; loss aversion—for most people it is important to avoid losses; and credibility—negative information might be more credible than positive information because positive information can be regarded as self-serving, whereas negative information often seems to lack this quality. However, critics of these studies warn against confusing negativity bias and confirmatory bias in explaining how information shapes citizens'' perceptions. Yet, after controlling for confirmatory bias, negativity bias still has a role: negative items have more impact than positive ones.The source of information is also important for shaping risk perception, as distrust of the institution providing the information increases the perception of risk (Renn, 2005). There is some debate about the importance of source credibility. Some studies find that source credibility has a key role in determining the impact of a message on public opinion, while others find that source credibility seems to have a limited effect and is less important than initial attitudes. Kumkale et al (2010) show in a meta-analysis that the credibility of the source matters mostly for attitude-formation conditions, whereas its impact in attitude-change conditions is lower. Conversely, recent studies show that internet users pay little or no attention to source credibility when they seek health information.Many people, in fact, anticipate that information from the media might be biased and take this into account when evaluating it. However, several behavioural studies conclude that even when viewers know that media sources are biased, they do not sufficiently discount the information to account for this bias. Exposure to media can thus systematically alter or reinforce beliefs and consumer behaviour. In conclusion, the impact of bias in media reporting on consumer attitudes is bidirectional and complex. Consumer bias in personal preferences and beliefs affect the media''s reporting strategies to convince these consumers to buy their media products. Similar complex interactions occur between the media and politicians and between the media and business.Although the media''s effects on public perception are complex, their impact can be significant. Curtis et al (2008) argue that differences in the structure of the media between countries might have important implications for food-risk perceptions. The negative attitude towards genetically modified foods that is typical of consumers in rich countries is in contrast to attitudes in poorer countries, where studies have found that consumer attitudes towards genetically modified foods are not as negative, and in many cases even positive. The authors claim that this might be partly explained by differences in the organization of the media. In poorer countries, information is more expensive and scarce and people often have less time to read and acquire information, which leads to an overall lower level of information. Moreover, government control of the media in poorer countries tends to be more extensive and might lead to more-positive coverage of biotechnology, if the government has a positive attitude.An important issue is the dynamics of the media market—that is, not only whether, but when to publish news. The structure of the mass media encourages fast, concentrated coverage. As collecting information requires time, effort and other costs, publishing a story on the basis of incomplete information risks biasing reports, which might hurt the reputation of the media outlet, and thereby future profits. However, covering a story early on might yield market share and profits if an outlet can be the first to provide information on a new issue. Consumers also face a trade-off. They might be willing to take the risk of getting biased information, as long as they get whatever information is available. In other words, any news is better than no news.These issues are particularly important in food scares. A case in point is the 1989 Alar controversy in the USA. Alar was the trade name for daminozide, a plant growth-regulator used to stimulate the growth, appearance and ripening of fruits, primarily apples. In February 1989, the US news programme 60 Minutes covered the Natural Resources Defence Council''s report, which said that Alar poses a cancer risk to children. Most US media organizations followed suit. As a result, supermarkets took apples off their shelves and schools removed apples from their cafeterias. US apple growers lost millions of dollars in revenues and announced a voluntary ban on Alar, which became effective in the autumn of 1989. In hindsight, analysts argue that the media confused a long-term cumulative effect with an imminent danger, resulting in unnecessary panic and financial losses (Negin, 1996).BSE, commonly known as mad cow disease, is another example. In March 1996, the UK government announced that mad cow disease was the likely cause of death for ten people. In April 1996, coverage of BSE on the Oprah Winfrey show in the USA was followed by a steep decline in beef prices in the following month, even though there were no BSE-infected cattle in the USA.Tabloid newspapers and the popular press typically worry less about their reputation in terms of quality, and more about being the first to publish or broadcast a story. The elite press worries more about quality. However, there is an interesting dynamic component: once one media company reports a story—no matter how biased their coverage is—it can initiate a chain reaction. If the issue is important enough, competitive forces will cause elite press organizations to follow suit, even before they are able to verify the story. The first story becomes the basis of their reporting.There are two reasons for this dynamic. First, competition and consumer choice force the media to pay attention to an issue, otherwise consumers ask why their preferred media source is not covering the story and will go elsewhere. The second reason is that by commenting on a story that was launched by another media company, more-reputable media outlets are covered if things go wrong—that is, when the primary information turns out to be biased. They can hide behind the fact that they were not the first to cover it, and only reflected on a story launched by someone else. The first factor minimizes the immediate losses from waiting too long, and the second limits future negative effects on reputation. These dynamics are summarized by the following quote, “Even apparently responsible papers […] contribute to building up [food] scares. When the scare has run its course, they will argue against it. But when the scare dynamic is up and running, [the quality press] will join with the throng and become more tabloid than the tabloids” (North, 2000).Although competition for audiences leads to an intensification of media attention in the early reporting of a story, it also induces a rapid decline in attention afterwards. The popular press is often first to report on a crisis and more intense in its initial coverage, but quickly loses interest. Thus, competition in the commercial media intensifies the scale of the scare, as well as bringing it to a fast—and often premature—conclusion.…competition in the commercial media intensifies the scale of the scare, as well as bringing it to a fast—and often premature—conclusionThere is also evidence that early claims, even when they are false, are reported more extensively than later corrections. Swinnen et al (2005) examined the media response to two food-safety crises: the 1999 dioxin crisis, and the 2001 foot and mouth disease outbreak. Comparing tabloids and the elite press, they found that overall coverage was almost the same, but that tabloids initially responded more quickly and intensely and also lost interest more quickly. They also found that initial errors in the news were not properly corrected when new facts emerged and initial interest had waned.The short-term impacts of food-safety information on consumer demand can be significant. One example is BSE, which had a negative effect on the consumer demand for beef, the severity of which was increased by the media. Verbeke & Ward (2001) found considerable misperception of the problem by consumers, a lack of knowledge about the relevant science and biased perception of the scientific criteria relevant to the safety of meat. Television coverage of meat safety had a negative effect on the demand for red meat after the BSE outbreak (Verbeke et al, 2000), and younger people were most susceptible to negative media coverage.However, in the long run, consumption and sales typically recover if the problems are addressed (Henneberry et al, 1999; Piggott & Marsh, 2004), although the effects on policy can be lasting. In 1993, after an Escherichia coli outbreak at the Jack in the Box restaurant chain, 144 people were hospitalized and three died. The restaurant chain almost went out of business in the wake of the event, but after two years, sales had recovered to pre-scare levels (Entine, 1999). By contrast, the legislative repercussions on burger restaurant chains have persisted.The most-significant long-term effect of mass-media reporting is its impact on public policy. By invoking strong responses in their audiences through concentrated, emotionally charged coverage, media outlets put pressure on governments to react to situations, effectively setting the agenda on a certain issue; this is sometimes called the ‘CNN factor'' (Hawkins, 2002). Similarly, an absence of media coverage of even important events or problems lowers their priority in legislative agendas. Robinson (2001) suggests that the media has great power to lead policy-makers, especially when there is uncertainty or limited information. For example, in the wake of the media frenzy surrounding the Jack in the Box E. coli outbreak, US President Bill Clinton called congressional hearings about the safety of the food supply. The US Food and Drug Administration raised the recommended internal temperature of cooked burgers to 155 ° fahrenheit (68 °C). It is now almost impossible to order a burger cooked less than ‘medium'' in US restaurants.…the media has great power to lead policy-makers, especially when there is uncertainty or limited informationAnother interesting example is the use of the precautionary principle in regulation in the EU and the USA. The precautionary principle is now used as a major regulatory tool in food safety issues in the EU, in particular to regulate genetically modified foods. However, it was used more in the USA from the 1960s to the mid-1980s (Vogel, 2003). Several European food scares in the 1990s, heavily publicized in the mass media, changed this. It pushed politicians to introduce a series of new regulations and it caused consumers to be more concerned about food safety. Although ex post studies showed that several of these food-safety problems were exaggerated, the massive press coverage induced strong political reactions, leading to regulations and shifts in consumer preferences that are having long-lasting effects on perceptions of food risk and the regulation of the food system in Europe (Swinnen & Vandemoortele, 2010).The examples considered above and the power of the media to influence an ignorant public—willfully or otherwise—have important implications for risk communication, education and management. First, because initial beliefs are important—affecting not only overall risk perceptions, but also the way in which consumers process new information—it is important to enhance consumer understanding of risk through education and by providing early information. This should create a realistic framework within which people can assess risks once an event occurs. Pre-emptive risk communication and the establishment of institutions that are responsive to problems can mitigate negative, long-term consequences on public policy or consumer preferences.Second, businesses, scientists and governments should be prepared to provide accurate, open and understandable information when crises occur. The media will report on the issues regardless and will draw on whichever ‘expert'' they can find if companies, scientists and governments are not ready to put events and facts into perspective.Third, the growth of the internet as a source of information and a communication tool not only imposes challenges, but also provides important opportunities. It enables direct communication with the public to provide information without depending on the mass media as brokers. Hence, even if the media do not report—or do so with a lack of nuance—companies, scientists and governments can communicate correct and nuanced information through the internet.Even if the commercial media provide simple and clear messages, consumers might realize that reality is more complexFourth, it is generally considered that successful risk management in regard to food safety critically depends on communication. Yet communication about food risk is difficult because the science is complex, uncertain and ambiguous. Even if the commercial media provide simple and clear messages, consumers might realize that reality is more complex. For example, Frewer et al (1997) have found that an admission of scientific uncertainty, which seems to reflect honesty, has a positive effect on the efficiency of communication. Risk communication should aim to enable citizens to make their own judgements, without trying to convince them that a certain risk is (in)tolerable. In order to be successful, communication should integrate documentation, information, dialogue and participation, and these four elements should be tailored towards meeting the three challenges of complexity, uncertainty and ambiguity (Renn, 2005).Finally, there seem to be cultural variations in the impact of the media and risk-communication strategies and in how food risks are perceived. Van Dijk et al (2007) found variation in the impact of communication strategies, even among western European countries: the communication of uncertainty has a positive impact in Germany, whereas the same information has a negative impact in the UK and Norway. Hence, effective risk-communication strategies depend on the culture in which the scientist, company or government is operating.Scientists, businesses, interest groups and politicians can also influence public perception, in particular by using the internet to circumvent the mass mediaFood scares are serious issues that have a significant impact in terms of consumer behaviour, economics and politics. Nevertheless, it would be wrong to blame the media for disproportionate public responses to such stories, although their influence is important and sometimes detrimental to public understanding. Scientists, businesses, interest groups and politicians can also influence public perception, in particular by using the internet to circumvent the mass media as the main source of information. As such, it is important for all parties to work together to become better at communicating with the public and providing education. In this way, the public should enjoy a heightened baseline of knowledge that will allow them to assess critically the sensationalist reports that appear in the media, and perhaps reduce the demand for such reporting in the first place.? Open in a separate windowJohan SwinnenOpen in a separate windowJill McCluskey     

High Quality Topic Extraction from Business News Explains Abnormal Financial Market Volatility

Understanding the mutual relationships between information flows and social activity in society today is one of the cornerstones of the social sciences. In financial economics, the key issue in this regard is understanding and quantifying how news of all possible types (geopolitical, environmental, social, financial, economic, etc.) affects trading and the pricing of firms in organized stock markets. In this article, we seek to address this issue by performing an analysis of more than 24 million news records provided by Thompson Reuters and of their relationship with trading activity for 206 major stocks in the S&P US stock index. We show that the whole landscape of news that affects stock price movements can be automatically summarized via simple regularized regressions between trading activity and news information pieces decomposed, with the help of simple topic modeling techniques, into their “thematic” features. Using these methods, we are able to estimate and quantify the impacts of news on trading. We introduce network-based visualization techniques to represent the whole landscape of news information associated with a basket of stocks. The examination of the words that are representative of the topic distributions confirms that our method is able to extract the significant pieces of information influencing the stock market. Our results show that one of the most puzzling stylized facts in financial economies, namely that at certain times trading volumes appear to be “abnormally large,” can be partially explained by the flow of news. In this sense, our results prove that there is no “excess trading,” when restricting to times when news is genuinely novel and provides relevant financial information.     

Mass Media and the Contagion of Fear: The Case of Ebola in America

Background

In the weeks following the first imported case of Ebola in the U. S. on September 29, 2014, coverage of the very limited outbreak dominated the news media, in a manner quite disproportionate to the actual threat to national public health; by the end of October, 2014, there were only four laboratory confirmed cases of Ebola in the entire nation. Public interest in these events was high, as reflected in the millions of Ebola-related Internet searches and tweets performed in the month following the first confirmed case. Use of trending Internet searches and tweets has been proposed in the past for real-time prediction of outbreaks (a field referred to as “digital epidemiology”), but accounting for the biases of public panic has been problematic. In the case of the limited U. S. Ebola outbreak, we know that the Ebola-related searches and tweets originating the U. S. during the outbreak were due only to public interest or panic, providing an unprecedented means to determine how these dynamics affect such data, and how news media may be driving these trends.

Methodology

We examine daily Ebola-related Internet search and Twitter data in the U. S. during the six week period ending Oct 31, 2014. TV news coverage data were obtained from the daily number of Ebola-related news videos appearing on two major news networks. We fit the parameters of a mathematical contagion model to the data to determine if the news coverage was a significant factor in the temporal patterns in Ebola-related Internet and Twitter data.

Conclusions

We find significant evidence of contagion, with each Ebola-related news video inspiring tens of thousands of Ebola-related tweets and Internet searches. Between 65% to 76% of the variance in all samples is described by the news media contagion model.     

The Unbearable Lightness of Health Science Reporting: A Week Examining Italian Print Media

Background

Although being an important source of science news information to the public, print news media have often been criticized in their credibility. Health-related content of press media articles has been examined by many studies underlining that information about benefits, risks and costs are often incomplete or inadequate and financial conflicts of interest are rarely reported. However, these studies have focused their analysis on very selected science articles. The present research aimed at adopting a wider explorative approach, by analysing all types of health science information appearing on the Italian national press in one-week period. Moreover, we attempted to score the balance of the articles.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We collected 146 health science communication articles defined as articles aiming at improving the reader''s knowledge on health from a scientific perspective. Articles were evaluated by 3 independent physicians with respect to different divulgation parameters: benefits, costs, risks, sources of information, disclosure of financial conflicts of interest and balance. Balance was evaluated with regard to exaggerated or non correct claims. The selected articles appeared on 41 Italian national daily newspapers and 41 weekly magazines, representing 89% of national circulation copies: 97 articles (66%) covered common medical treatments or basic scientific research and 49 (34%) were about new medical treatments, procedures, tests or products. We found that only 6/49 (12%) articles on new treatments, procedures, tests or products mentioned costs or risks to patients. Moreover, benefits were always maximized and in 16/49 cases (33%) they were presented in relative rather than absolute terms. The majority of stories (133/146, 91%) did not report any financial conflict of interest. Among these, 15 were shown to underreport them (15/146, 9.5%), as we demonstrated that conflicts of interest did actually exist. Unbalanced articles were 27/146 (18%). Specifically, the probability of unbalanced reporting was significantly increased in stories about a new treatment, procedure, test or product (22/49, 45%), compared to stories covering common treatments or basic scientific research (5/97, 5%) (risk ratio, 8.72).

Conclusions/Significance

Consistent with prior research on health science communication in other countries, we report undisclosed costs and risks, emphasized benefits, unrevealed financial conflicts of interest and exaggerated claims in Italian print media. In addition, we show that the risk for a story about a new medical approach to be unbalanced is almost 9 times higher with respect to stories about any other kind of health science-related topics. These findings raise again the fundamental issue whether popular media is detrimental rather than useful to public health.     

The Environmental Impact of Getting the News

The environmental impact associated with reading an on-line and a printed newspaper is analyzed and compared with respective parts of a television (TV) broadcast. Two reference units were chosen for comparison to account for differences between media in presentation and consumption (reading or watching a news item) and consumption of the daily news as a whole. The environmental impact is assessed using life-cycle assessment (LCA).
Key drivers of the environmental impact for both electronic delivery systems are energy consumption and power generation. Not only do the manufacturing of the products and their use have an environmental impact, but so does the use of the necessary infrastructure, that is, energy consumption of the telephone network or data transfer via Internet. Printing of on-line information also turned out to be important.
In the case of the printed newspapers, energy consumption is again important, here for the manufacturing of pulp and paper. Complete printed newspapers (the form in which they are typically purchased) have a very high environmental burden relative to watching the TV news or reading on-line news, even if the propensity to extend TV viewing is taken into consideration.     

Uncovering Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Human Online Behaviors during Extreme Events

In response to an extreme event, individuals on social media demonstrate interesting behaviors depending on their backgrounds. By making use of the large-scale datasets of posts and search queries collected from Twitter and GoogleTrends, we first identify the distinct categories of human collective online concerns and durations based on the distributions of solo tweets and new incremental tweets about events. Such a characterization enables us to gain a better understanding of dynamic changes in human behaviors corresponding to different types of events. Next, we observe the heterogeneity of individual responses to events through measuring the fraction of event-related tweets relative to the tweets released by an individual, and thus empirically confirm the heterogeneity assumption as adopted in the meta-population models for characterizing collective responses to events. Finally, based on the correlations of information entropy in different regions, we show that the observed distinct responses may be caused by their different speeds in information propagation. In addition, based on the detrended fluctuation analysis, we find that there exists a self-similar evolution process for the collective responses within a region. These findings have provided a detailed account for the nature of distinct human behaviors on social media in presence of extreme events.     

Managing the boundaries between maverick cloners and mainstream scientists: the life cycle of a news event in a contested field

Abstract

In January 2004, the ‘maverick cloner’, Dr Panos Zavos called a press conference in London to announce that he had implanted a freshly cloned human embryo in the womb of an infertile woman. Reports of this press conference gained prominent coverage in the national newspapers the following day and led television bulletins that evening. This article discusses the ways in which expertise was claimed by or attributed to Dr Zavos and other key media sources. It argues that three key boundaries were demarcated in the coverage as journalists framed the stories in terms provided by Zavos's antagonists, ‘mainstream scientists’. It also discusses the engagement in tactics of news management by an organised grouping of UK scientists who attempted to shape the terrain of news coverage on the subject of cloning. The question of the extent to which interested scientists should be able to set the terms of media debate is explored.     

The Effect of Bad News and CEO Apology of Corporate on User Responses in Social Media

While social media has become an important platform for social reputation, the emotional responses of users toward bad news have not been investigated thoroughly. We analyzed a total of 20,773 Twitter messages by 15,513 users to assess the influence of bad news and public apology in social media. Based on both computerized, quantitative sentiment analysis and in-depth qualitative analysis, we found that rapid public apology effectively and immediately reduced the level of negative sentiment, where the degree of change in sentiments differed by the type of interactions users engaged in. The majority of users who directly conversed with corporate representatives on the new media were not typical consumers, but experts and practitioners. We extend the existing cognitive model and suggest the audiences’ psychological reaction model to describe the information processing process during and after an organizational crisis and response. We also discuss various measures through which companies can respond to a crisis properly in social media in a fashion that is different from conventional mass media.     

Tweeting Supertyphoon Haiyan: Evolving Functions of Twitter during and after a Disaster Event

When disaster events capture global attention users of Twitter form transient interest communities that disseminate information and other messages online. This paper examines content related to Typhoon Haiyan (locally known as Yolanda) as it hit the Philippines and triggered international humanitarian response and media attention. It reveals how Twitter conversations about disasters evolve over time, showing an issue attention cycle on a social media platform. The paper examines different functions of Twitter and the information hubs that drive and sustain conversation about the event. Content analysis shows that the majority of tweets contain information about the typhoon or its damage, and disaster relief activities. There are differences in types of content between the most retweeted messages and posts that are original tweets. Original tweets are more likely to come from ordinary users, who are more likely to tweet emotions, messages of support, and political content compared with official sources and key information hubs that include news organizations, aid organization, and celebrities. Original tweets reveal use of the site beyond information to relief coordination and response.     

The Brandes-Friesen case reports: how should we interpret the news?

In this issue (see pages 561 to 566 two case reports by Lorne J. Brandes and Linda A. Friesen illustrate a temporal relation between the discontinuation or initiation of therapy with certain non-antineoplastic agents (lithium, carbamazepine and an H1-antihistamine) and the clinical course of cancer. Only an accumulation of similar case reports and the results of epidemiologic and controlled clinical studies will show whether the temporal relation observed in these cases is also a causal one. In the absence of strong, let alone conclusive, evidence that antidepressants or antihistamines promote the growth of tumours in human beings, a recommendation to stop using these medications would be premature. The news about these case reports and about animal studies on the tumour-promoting potential of some antidepressants and antihistamines is likely to spread through the media. The realistic and responsible option for physicians and clinical investigators is to help patients and prospective participants in clinical trials to interpret this information in a balanced and reasonable fashion.     

Smoking or My Job? US Media Coverage of Nonsmoker-Only Hiring Policies

Objectives

Media advocacy plays a critical role in tobacco control, shaping the content of news in ways that generate public support for tobacco control. We examined US media coverage of nonsmoker-only hiring policies, which have little US public support, exploring the extent to which tobacco control advocates and experts have engaged the media on this controversial issue.

Methods

We searched online media databases (Lexis Nexis, Access World News, and Proquest) for articles published from 1995–2013, coding retrieved items through a collaborative, iterative process. We analyzed the volume, type, provenance, prominence, content and slant of coverage.

Results

We found 1,159 media items on nonsmoker-only hiring policies, most published in local newspapers in regions where such policies were enacted. The most common reason given for implementing such policies was to reduce healthcare costs. Most news items offered reasons both to support and oppose such policies; thus, the slant of the majority of news items was neutral or mixed. Tobacco control advocates or experts were infrequently cited or quoted in news items, and rarely authored opinion pieces. Those who expressed opinions were more likely to support than oppose nonsmoker-only hiring policies, for economic and health reasons. Ethical concerns about the policies were seldom raised.

Conclusions

As presented in the media, nonsmoker-only hiring policies were primarily framed in terms of business cost savings and had little connection to health initiatives. Tobacco control advocates were rarely quoted and their positions were not consistent. Given their intrusiveness and the lack of strong evidence that such business policies actually do improve worker health, tobacco control advocates may feel that the status quo is preferable to engaging on a policy that the majority of Americans dislike.     

Media Reporting of Neuroscience Depends on Timing,Topic and Newspaper Type

The rapid developments in neuroscientific techniques raise high expectations among the general public and therefore warrant close monitoring of the translation to the media and daily-life applications. The need of empirical research into neuroscience communication is emphasized by its susceptibility to evoke misconceptions and polarized beliefs. As the mass media are the main sources of information about (neuro-)science for a majority of the general public, the objective of the current research is to quantify how critically and accurately newspapers report on neuroscience as a function of the timing of publication (within or outside of periods of heightened media attention to neuroscience, termed “news waves”), the topic of the research (e.g. development, health, law) and the newspaper type (quality, popular, free newspapers). The results show that articles published during neuroscience news waves were less neutral and more optimistic, but not different in accuracy. Furthermore, the overall tone and accuracy of articles depended on the topic; for example, articles on development often had an optimistic tone whereas articles on law were often skeptical or balanced, and articles on health care had highest accuracy. Average accuracy was rather low, but articles in quality newspapers were relatively more accurate than in popular and free newspapers. Our results provide specific recommendations for researchers and science communicators, to improve the translation of neuroscience findings through the media: 1) Caution is warranted during periods of heightened attention (news waves), as reporting tends to be more optimistic; 2) Caution is also warranted not to follow topic-related biases in optimism (e.g., development) or skepticism (e.g., law); 3) Researchers should keep in mind that overall accuracy of reporting is low, and especially articles in popular and free newspapers provide a minimal amount of details. This indicates that researchers themselves may need to be more active in preventing misconceptions to arise.     

Climate Change Sentiment on Twitter: An Unsolicited Public Opinion Poll

The consequences of anthropogenic climate change are extensively debated through scientific papers, newspaper articles, and blogs. Newspaper articles may lack accuracy, while the severity of findings in scientific papers may be too opaque for the public to understand. Social media, however, is a forum where individuals of diverse backgrounds can share their thoughts and opinions. As consumption shifts from old media to new, Twitter has become a valuable resource for analyzing current events and headline news. In this research, we analyze tweets containing the word “climate” collected between September 2008 and July 2014. Through use of a previously developed sentiment measurement tool called the Hedonometer, we determine how collective sentiment varies in response to climate change news, events, and natural disasters. We find that natural disasters, climate bills, and oil-drilling can contribute to a decrease in happiness while climate rallies, a book release, and a green ideas contest can contribute to an increase in happiness. Words uncovered by our analysis suggest that responses to climate change news are predominately from climate change activists rather than climate change deniers, indicating that Twitter is a valuable resource for the spread of climate change awareness.     

Interpretation of Results of Studies Evaluating an Intervention Highlighted in Google Health News: A Cross-Sectional Study of News

Background

Mass media through the Internet is a powerful means of disseminating medical research. We aimed to determine whether and how the interpretation of research results is misrepresented by the use of “spin” in the health section of Google News. Spin was defined as specific way of reporting, from whatever motive (intentional or unintentional), to emphasize that the beneficial effect of the intervention is greater than that shown by the results.

Methods

We conducted a cross-sectional study of news highlighted in the health section of US, UK and Canada editions of Google News between July 2013 and January 2014. We searched for news items for 3 days a week (i.e., Monday, Wednesday, and Friday) during 6 months and selected a sample of 130 news items reporting a scientific article evaluating the effect of an intervention on human health.

Results

In total, 78% of the news did not provide a full reference or electronic link to the scientific article. We found at least one spin in 114 (88%) news items and 18 different types of spin in news. These spin were mainly related to misleading reporting (59%) such as not reporting adverse events that were reported in the scientific article (25%), misleading interpretation (69%) such as claiming a causal effect despite non-randomized study design (49%) and overgeneralization/misleading extrapolation (41%) of the results such as extrapolating a beneficial effect from an animal study to humans (21%). We also identified some new types of spin such as highlighting a single patient experience for the success of a new treatment instead of focusing on the group results.

Conclusions

Interpretation of research results was frequently misrepresented in the health section of Google News. However, we do not know whether these spin were from the scientific articles themselves or added in the news.     

Effects of News Frames on Perceived Risk,Emotions, and Learning

The media play a key role in forming opinions by influencing people´s understanding and perception of a topic. People gather information about topics of interest from the internet and print media, which employ various news frames to attract attention. One example of a common news frame is the human-interest frame, which emotionalizes and dramatizes information and often accentuates individual affectedness. Our study investigated effects of human-interest frames compared to a neutral-text condition with respect to perceived risk, emotions, and knowledge acquisition, and tested whether these effects can be "generalized" to common variants of the human-interest frame. Ninety-one participants read either one variant of the human-interest frame or a neutrally formulated version of a newspaper article describing the effects of invasive species in general and the Asian ladybug (an invasive species) in particular. The framing was achieved by varying the opening and concluding paragraphs (about invasive species), as well as the headline. The core text (about the Asian ladybug) was the same across all conditions. All outcome variables on framing effects referred to this common core text. We found that all versions of the human-interest frame increased perceived risk and the strength of negative emotions compared to the neutral text. Furthermore, participants in the human-interest frame condition displayed better (quantitative) learning outcomes but also biased knowledge, highlighting a potential dilemma: Human-interest frames may increase learning, but they also lead to a rather unbalanced view of the given topic on a “deeper level”.