Projecting future expansion of invasive species: comparing and improving methodologies for species distribution modeling

Modeling the distributions of species, especially of invasive species in non‐native ranges, involves multiple challenges. Here, we developed some novel approaches to species distribution modeling aimed at reducing the influences of such challenges and improving the realism of projections. We estimated species–environment relationships for Parthenium hysterophorus L. (Asteraceae) with four modeling methods run with multiple scenarios of (i) sources of occurrences and geographically isolated background ranges for absences, (ii) approaches to drawing background (absence) points, and (iii) alternate sets of predictor variables. We further tested various quantitative metrics of model evaluation against biological insight. Model projections were very sensitive to the choice of training dataset. Model accuracy was much improved using a global dataset for model training, rather than restricting data input to the species’ native range. AUC score was a poor metric for model evaluation and, if used alone, was not a useful criterion for assessing model performance. Projections away from the sampled space (i.e., into areas of potential future invasion) were very different depending on the modeling methods used, raising questions about the reliability of ensemble projections. Generalized linear models gave very unrealistic projections far away from the training region. Models that efficiently fit the dominant pattern, but exclude highly local patterns in the dataset and capture interactions as they appear in data (e.g., boosted regression trees), improved generalization of the models. Biological knowledge of the species and its distribution was important in refining choices about the best set of projections. A post hoc test conducted on a new Parthenium dataset from Nepal validated excellent predictive performance of our ‘best’ model. We showed that vast stretches of currently uninvaded geographic areas on multiple continents harbor highly suitable habitats for parthenium. However, discrepancies between model predictions and parthenium invasion in Australia indicate successful management for this globally significant weed.     

A Practical and Automated Approach to Large Area Forest Disturbance Mapping with Remote Sensing

In this paper, I describe a set of procedures that automate forest disturbance mapping using a pair of Landsat images. The approach is built on the traditional pair-wise change detection method, but is designed to extract training data without user interaction and uses a robust classification algorithm capable of handling incorrectly labeled training data. The steps in this procedure include: i) creating masks for water, non-forested areas, clouds, and cloud shadows; ii) identifying training pixels whose value is above or below a threshold defined by the number of standard deviations from the mean value of the histograms generated from local windows in the short-wave infrared (SWIR) difference image; iii) filtering the original training data through a number of classification algorithms using an n-fold cross validation to eliminate mislabeled training samples; and finally, iv) mapping forest disturbance using a supervised classification algorithm. When applied to 17 Landsat footprints across the U.S. at five-year intervals between 1985 and 2010, the proposed approach produced forest disturbance maps with 80 to 95% overall accuracy, comparable to those obtained from traditional approaches to forest change detection. The primary sources of mis-classification errors included inaccurate identification of forests (errors of commission), issues related to the land/water mask, and clouds and cloud shadows missed during image screening. The approach requires images from the peak growing season, at least for the deciduous forest sites, and cannot readily distinguish forest harvest from natural disturbances or other types of land cover change. The accuracy of detecting forest disturbance diminishes with the number of years between the images that make up the image pair. Nevertheless, the relatively high accuracies, little or no user input needed for processing, speed of map production, and simplicity of the approach make the new method especially practical for forest cover change analysis over very large regions.     

NMR experiments for the rapid identification of P=O···H–X type hydrogen bonds in nucleic acids

Implementation of a new algorithm, SMILE, is described for reconstruction of non-uniformly sampled two-, three- and four-dimensional NMR data, which takes advantage of the known phases of the NMR spectrum and the exponential decay of underlying time domain signals. The method is very robust with respect to the chosen sampling protocol and, in its default mode, also extends the truncated time domain signals by a modest amount of non-sampled zeros. SMILE can likewise be used to extend conventional uniformly sampled data, as an effective multidimensional alternative to linear prediction. The program is provided as a plug-in to the widely used NMRPipe software suite, and can be used with default parameters for mainstream application, or with user control over the iterative process to possibly further improve reconstruction quality and to lower the demand on computational resources. For large data sets, the method is robust and demonstrated for sparsities down to ca 1%, and final all-real spectral sizes as large as 300 Gb. Comparison between fully sampled, conventionally processed spectra and randomly selected NUS subsets of this data shows that the reconstruction quality approaches the theoretical limit in terms of peak position fidelity and intensity. SMILE essentially removes the noise-like appearance associated with the point-spread function of signals that are a default of five-fold above the noise level, but impacts the actual thermal noise in the NMR spectra only minimally. Therefore, the appearance and interpretation of SMILE-reconstructed spectra is very similar to that of fully sampled spectra generated by Fourier transformation.     

Physical training and connective tissues in young mice: biochemistry of long bones

The effect of physical training on collagen, ground substance, and nucleic acid concentrations in long bones was studied in male mice of NMRI strain. The mice to be trained and their controls were about 2 wk old at the beginning of training, which took place on a 5 degrees inclined treadmill 5 days/wk for 3-22 wk. The duration of daily exercise was increased progressively over 3 wk. The final daily exercise bouts were 50 and 80 min for moderate programs and 180 min for the intensive program at a speed of 30 cm/s. Increased concentrations of nitrogen and hexosamines were found at both training intensities, especially after prolonged training. No conclusive changes in nucleic acid concentrations were observed after training. The hexosamine-hydroxyproline ratio was higher and the hydroxyproline-nitrogen ratio lower in the long bones of trained animals compared to the controls. In conclusion these data suggest that prolonged physical activity affects the organic matrix of long bones by maintaining above average concentrations of glycosaminoglycans in matured bones.     

A Monte Carlo study of tests on data originating from quadrat sampling. I: Data from a Poisson distribution

Computer simulations are used to examine the significance levels and powers of several tests which have been employed to compare the means of Poisson distributions. In particular, attention is focused on the behaviour of the tests when the means are small, as is often the case in ecological studies when populations of organisms are sampled using quadrats. Two approaches to testing are considered. The first assumes a log linear model for the Poisson data and leads to tests based on the deviance. The second employs standard analysis of variance tests following data transformations, including the often used logarithmic and square root transformations. For very small means it is found that a deviance-based test has the most favourable characteristics, generally outperforming analysis of variance tests on transformed data; none of the latter appears consistently better than any other. For larger means the standard analysis of variance on untransformed data performs well.     

Nonparametric Lower Bounds for Species Richness and Shared Species Richness under Sampling without Replacement

Summary A number of species richness estimators have been developed under the model that individuals (or sampling units) are sampled with replacement. However, if sampling is done without replacement so that no sampled unit can be repeatedly observed, then the traditional estimators for sampling with replacement tend to overestimate richness for relatively high-sampling fractions (ratio of sample size to the total number of sampling units) and do not converge to the true species richness when the sampling fraction approaches one. Based on abundance data or replicated incidence data, we propose a nonparametric lower bound for species richness in a single community and also a lower bound for the number of species shared by multiple communities. Our proposed lower bounds are derived under very general sampling models. They are universally valid for all types of species abundance distributions and species detection probabilities. For abundance data, individuals' detectabilities are allowed to be heterogeneous among species. For replicated incidence data, the selected sampling units (e.g., quadrats) need not be fully censused and species can be spatially aggregated. All bounds converge correctly to the true parameters when the sampling fraction approaches one. Real data sets are used for illustration. We also test the proposed bounds by using subsamples generated from large real surveys or censuses, and their performance is compared with that of some previous estimators.     

Prediction of marine species distribution from presence–absence acoustic data: comparing the fitting efficiency and the predictive capacity of conventional and novel distribution models

The accurate representation of species distribution derived from sampled data is essential for management purposes and to underpin population modelling. Additionally, the prediction of species distribution for an expanded area, beyond the sampling area can reduce sampling costs. Here, several well-established and recently developed habitat modelling techniques are investigated in order to identify the most suitable approach to use with presence–absence acoustic data. The fitting efficiency of the modelling techniques are initially tested on the training dataset while their predictive capacity is evaluated using a verification set. For the comparison among models, Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC), Kappa statistics, correlation and confusion matrices are used. Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) and Associative Neural Networks (ASNN), which are both within the machine learning category, outperformed the other modelling approaches tested.     

土壤模糊隶属度不同数据转换方法及其对空间插值结果的影响

应用模糊c-均值算法对土壤进行连续分类时,其输出的土壤模糊隶属度值具有成分数据的结构特点.直接基于土壤隶属度数据实施普通克里格插值,其空间预测结果缺乏可信度.因此,在进行插值预测之前,必须对土壤模糊隶属度值进行必要的数据转换.研究采用对数正态变换方法、对称对数比转换方法和非对称对数比转换方法对土壤模糊隶属度值进行数据转换,分析了各种数据转换形式对插值结果及其精度的影响.结果表明,对样点土壤模糊隶属度进行简单对数正态转换,其插值结果空间上任意点的土壤对于不同类别的隶属度之和均不为1,因此这样的插值结果理论上缺乏可行性.数据经非对称对数比转换和对称对数比转换后,插值结果均满足各个位置组分之和为1和非负限制,二者相比,后者对区域总体趋势的反映较前者好,且精度较高.因此,在应用对称对数比方法对样点土壤模糊隶属度值进行数据转换的基础上,应用克里格技术实施空间插值可以获得最佳预测结果.     

A new phylodynamic model of Mycobacterium bovis transmission in a multi-host system uncovers the role of the unobserved reservoir

Multi-host pathogens are particularly difficult to control, especially when at least one of the hosts acts as a hidden reservoir. Deep sequencing of densely sampled pathogens has the potential to transform this understanding, but requires analytical approaches that jointly consider epidemiological and genetic data to best address this problem. While there has been considerable success in analyses of single species systems, the hidden reservoir problem is relatively under-studied. A well-known exemplar of this problem is bovine Tuberculosis, a disease found in British and Irish cattle caused by Mycobacterium bovis, where the Eurasian badger has long been believed to act as a reservoir but remains of poorly quantified importance except in very specific locations. As a result, the effort that should be directed at controlling disease in badgers is unclear. Here, we analyse densely collected epidemiological and genetic data from a cattle population but do not explicitly consider any data from badgers. We use a simulation modelling approach to show that, in our system, a model that exploits available cattle demographic and herd-to-herd movement data, but only considers the ability of a hidden reservoir to generate pathogen diversity, can be used to choose between different epidemiological scenarios. In our analysis, a model where the reservoir does not generate any diversity but contributes to new infections at a local farm scale are significantly preferred over models which generate diversity and/or spread disease at broader spatial scales. While we cannot directly attribute the role of the reservoir to badgers based on this analysis alone, the result supports the hypothesis that under current cattle control regimes, infected cattle alone cannot sustain M. bovis circulation. Given the observed close phylogenetic relationship for the bacteria taken from cattle and badgers sampled near to each other, the most parsimonious hypothesis is that the reservoir is the infected badger population. More broadly, our approach demonstrates that carefully constructed bespoke models can exploit the combination of genetic and epidemiological data to overcome issues of extreme data bias, and uncover important general characteristics of transmission in multi-host pathogen systems.     

Comparative approaches to understand metal bioaccumulation in aquatic animals

Over the past decades, comparative physiology and biochemistry approaches have played a significant role in understanding the complexity of metal bioaccumulation in aquatic animals. Such a comparative approach is now further aided by the biokinetic modeling approach which can be used to predict the rates and routes of metal bioaccumulation and assist in the interpretation of accumulated body metal concentrations in aquatic animals. In this review, we illustrate a few examples of using the combined comparative and biokinetic modeling approaches to further our understanding of metal accumulation in aquatic animals. We highlight recent studies on the different accumulation patterns of metals in different species of invertebrates and fish, and between various aquatic systems (freshwater and marine). Comparative metal biokinetics can explain the differences in metal bioaccumulation among bivalves, although it is still difficult to explain the evolutionary basis for the different accumulated metal body concentrations (e.g., why some species have high metal concentrations). Both physiological/biochemical responses and metal geochemistry are responsible for the differences in metal concentrations observed in different populations of aquatic species, or between freshwater and marine species. A comparative approach is especially important for metal biology research, due to the very complicated and potentially variable physiological handling of metals during their accumulation, sequestration, distribution and elimination in different aquatic species or between different aquatic systems.     

Daily exposure to a touchscreen-paradigm and associated food restriction evokes an increase in adrenocortical and neural activity in mice

The translational assessment of mechanisms underlying cognitive functions using touchscreen-based approaches for rodents is growing in popularity. In these paradigms, daily training is usually accompanied by extended food restriction to maintain animals' motivation to respond for rewards. Here, we show a transient elevation in stress hormone levels due to food restriction and touchscreen training, with subsequent adaptation effects, in fecal corticosterone metabolite concentrations, indicating effective coping in response to physical and psychological stressors. Corticosterone concentrations of experienced but training-deprived mice revealed a potential anticipation of task exposure, indicating a possible temporary environmental enrichment-like effect caused by cognitive challenge. Furthermore, the analyses of immediate early gene (IEG) immunoreactivity in the hippocampus revealed alterations in Arc, c-Fos and zif268 expression immediately following training. In addition, BDNF expression was altered as a function of satiation state during food restriction. These findings suggest that standard protocols for touchscreen-based training induce changes in hippocampal neuronal activity related to satiation and learning that should be considered when using this paradigm.     

Modeling of submerged membrane bioreactor treating cheese whey wastewater by artificial neural network

A submerged membrane bioreactor receiving cheese whey was modeled by artificial neural network and its performance over a period of 100 days at different solids retention times was evaluated with this robust tool. A cascade-forward network was used to model the membrane bioreactor and normalization was used as a preprocessing method. The network was fed with two subsets of operational data, with two-thirds being used for training and one-third for testing the performance of the artificial neural network. The training procedure for effluent chemical oxygen demand (COD), ammonia, nitrate and total phosphate concentrations was very successful and a perfect match was obtained between the measured and the calculated concentrations. The results of the confirmation (or testing) procedure for effluent ammonia and nitrate concentrations were very successful; however, the results of the confirmation procedure for effluent COD and total phosphate concentrations were only satisfactory.     

A new device for the freeze-clamping of tissue samples

Measurement of metabolite concentrations in tissue samples involves the following procedures: Removal of the sample from the animal, temporary arrest of metabolism, extraction (including weighing, homogenization, final fixation, and neutralization) and assay. Rapid temporary fixation following the sampling of tissue is essential to prevent autolytic changes in metabolite concentrations (1,2). The freeze-clamping technique described by Wollenberger et al. (3) meets this requirement as long as the final thickness of the freeze-clamped sample is sufficiently small. For brain tissue the limit seems to be about 2 mm (4).In our laboratory we have made extensive use of the freeze-clamping tongs of Wollenberger et al., especially for small tissue samples freeze-clamped in situ. However, when in situ clamping can not be used when more than 2–3 g of tissue must be sampled, the freeze-clamping press described below has proven very useful.     

The simplex algorithm for the rapid identification of operating conditions during early bioprocess development: case studies in FAb' precipitation and multimodal chromatography

This study describes a data-driven algorithm as a rapid alternative to conventional Design of Experiments (DoE) approaches for identifying feasible operating conditions during early bioprocess development. In general, DoE methods involve fitting regression models to experimental data, but if model fitness is inadequate then further experimentation is required to gain more confidence in the location of an optimum. This can be undesirable during very early process development when feedstock is in limited supply and especially if a significant percentage of the tested conditions are ultimately found to be sub-optimal. An alternative approach involves focusing solely upon the feasible regions by using the knowledge gained from each condition to direct the choice of subsequent test locations that lead towards an optimum. To illustrate the principle, this study describes the application of the Simplex algorithm which uses accumulated knowledge from previous test points to direct the choice of successive conditions towards better regions. The method is illustrated by two case studies; a two variable precipitation example investigating how salt concentration and pH affect FAb' recovery from E. coli homogenate and a three-variable chromatography example identifying the optimal pH and concentrations of two salts in an elution buffer used to recover ovine antibody bound to a multimodal cation exchange matrix. Two-level and face-centered central composite regression models were constructed for each study and statistical analysis showed that they provided a poor fit to the data, necessitating additional experimentation to confirm the robust regions of the search space. By comparison, the Simplex algorithm identified a good operating point using 50% and 70% fewer conditions for the precipitation and chromatography studies, respectively. Hence, data-driven approaches have significant potential for early process development when material supply is at a premium.     

Detecting correlation between characters in a comparative analysis with uncertain phylogeny

Abstract.— The importance of accommodating the phylogenetic history of a group when performing a comparative analysis is now widely recognized. The typical approaches either assume the tree is known without error, or they base inferences on a collection of well-supported trees or on a collection of trees generated under a stochastic model of cladogenesis. However, these approaches do not adequately account for the uncertainty of phylogenetic trees in a comparative analysis, especially when data relevant to the phylogeny of a group are available. Here, we develop a method for performing comparative analyses that is based on an extension of Felsenstein's independent contrasts method. Uncertainties in the phylogeny, branch lengths, and other parameters are accommodated by averaging over all possible trees, weighting each by the probability that the tree is correct. We do this in a Bayesian framework and use Markov chain Monte Carlo to perform the high-dimensional summations and integrations required by the analysis. We illustrate the method using comparative characters sampled from Anolis lizards.     

Reconstructing disease outbreaks from genetic data: a graph approach

Epidemiology and public health planning will increasingly rely on the analysis of genetic sequence data. In particular, genetic data coupled with dates and locations of sampled isolates can be used to reconstruct the spatiotemporal dynamics of pathogens during outbreaks. Thus far, phylogenetic methods have been used to tackle this issue. Although these approaches have proved useful for informing on the spread of pathogens, they do not aim at directly reconstructing the underlying transmission tree. Instead, phylogenetic models infer most recent common ancestors between pairs of isolates, which can be inadequate for densely sampled recent outbreaks, where the sample includes ancestral and descendent isolates. In this paper, we introduce a novel method based on a graph approach to reconstruct transmission trees directly from genetic data. Using simulated data, we show that our approach can efficiently reconstruct genealogies of isolates in situations where classical phylogenetic approaches fail to do so. We then illustrate our method by analyzing data from the early stages of the swine-origin A/H1N1 influenza pandemic. Using 433 isolates sequenced at both the hemagglutinin and neuraminidase genes, we reconstruct the likely history of the worldwide spread of this new influenza strain. The presented methodology opens new perspectives for the analysis of genetic data in the context of disease outbreaks.     

Predicting species distributions from herbarium collections: does climate bias in collection sampling influence model outcomes?

Aim Species distribution models and geographical information system (GIS) technologies are becoming increasingly important tools in conservation planning and decision‐making. Often the rich data bases of museums and herbaria serve as the primary data for predicting species distributions. Yet key assumptions about the primary data often are untested, and violation of such assumptions may have consequences for model predictions. For example, users of primary data assume that sampling has been random with respect to geography and environmental gradients. Here we evaluate the assumption that plant voucher specimens adequately sample the climatic gradient and test whether violation of this assumption influences model predictions. Location Bolivia and Ecuador. Methods Using 323,711 georeferenced herbarium collections and nine climatic variables, we predicted the distribution of 76 plant species using maximum entropy models (MAXENT) with training points that sampled the climate environments randomly and training points that reflected the climate bias in the herbarium collections. To estimate the distribution of species, MAXENT finds the distribution of maximum entropy (i.e. closest to uniform) subject to the constraint that the expected value for each environmental variable under the estimated distribution matches its empirical average. The experimental design included species that differed in geographical range and elevation; all species were modelled with 20 and 100 training points. We examined the influence of the number of training points and climate bias in training points, elevation and range size on model performance using analysis of variance models. Results We found that significant parts of the climatic gradient were poorly represented in herbarium collections for both countries. For the most part, existing climatic bias in collections did not greatly affect distribution predictions when compared with an unbiased data set. Although the effects of climate bias on prediction accuracy were found to be greater where geographical ranges were characterized by high spatial variation in the degree of climate bias (i.e. ranges where the bias of the various climates sampled by collections deviated considerably from the mean bias), the greatest influence on model performance was the number of presence points used to train the model. Main conclusions These results demonstrate that predictions of species distributions can be quite good despite existing climatic biases in primary data found in natural history collections, if a sufficiently large number of training points is available. Because of consistent overprediction of models, these results also confirm the importance of validating models with independent data or expert opinion. Failure to include independent model validation, especially in cases where training points are limited, may potentially lead to grave errors in conservation decision‐making and planning.