Temporal and Spatial Host Abundance and Prevalence of Andes Hantavirus in Southern Argentina

Andes virus (AND) is a hantavirus hosted by the sigmodontine rodent Oligoryzomys longicaudatus in southern Argentina, where it is responsible for most cases of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS). Our study provides data about the spatial variation in abundance of the rodent host of AND hantavirus. We report results of a longitudinal study performed in a locality of the Andean region of Chubut Province. From November 2003 (spring) to July 2006 (winter), O. longicaudatus was the most common species captured (63%) and it showed significant differences in abundance among habitats and seasons. Most antibody-positive rodents were O. longicaudatus (9.2%), followed by A. longipilis (3.6%) and A. olivaceus (1.5%). The highest number of antibody-positive animals was observed for males that belonged to the heaviest mass classes. Antibody-positive O. longicaudatus were more abundant in brush habitats. We found low richness of rodents and abundance of O. longicaudatus in areas affected by anthropogenic activity. The infection seems to be regionally persistent, but the risk to humans in a landscape would be localized. To develop accurate models for predicting HPS outbreaks, further research is needed to characterize rodent movement patterns across the landscape.     

A model to predict the presence of longfin eels in some New Zealand streams, with particular reference to riparian vegetation and elevation

Two logistic regression models were developed from a database of 27 biotic and physicochemical variables for 99 sites in the Taieri River, New Zealand, to predict the probability of occurrence of longfin eels. Average depth was associated positively with eels while woody debris and oxygen concentration were negatively associated. At a macro-scale probability of eel occurrence declined with increasing elevation and, for a given elevation, was higher in tussock and pasture catchments and lower in pine and native forest settings. Using a separate fish database for the Taieri River this macro-scale model predicted eel presence 95·4% in agreement with observation. A map was generated from the model showing areas of predicted high, moderate and low probabilities of eel occurrence. The model also estimated the minimum total number of eels present in the Taieri River catchment (excluding lakes, and streams below 100 m and above 1000 m) as 20 865 (95% CL: 10 560-36 350).     

The ecological niche and reciprocal prediction of the disjunct distribution of an invasive species: the example of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Ailanthus altissima</Emphasis>

Knowledge of the ecological niches of invasive species in native and introduced ranges can inform management as well as ecological and evolutionary theory. Here, we identified and compared factors associated with the distribution of an invasive tree, Ailanthus altissima, in both its native Chinese and introduced US ranges and predicted potential US distribution. For both ranges separately, we selected suites of the most parsimonious logistic regression models of occurrence based on environmental variables and evaluated these against independent data. We then incorporated information from both ranges in a simple Bayesian model to predict the potential US distribution. Occurrence of A. altissima in both ranges exhibited a unimodal response to temperature variables. In China, occurrence had negative relationships with topographic wetness and forest cover and positive relationships with precipitation and agricultural and urban land use. In the US, A. altissima was associated with intermediate levels of forest cover and precipitation. The Bayesian model identified 58–80% of 10-arc minute grid cells in the conterminous US as containing suitable areas for A. altissima. The best model developed from Chinese data applied to the US matched most areas of observed occurrence but under-predicted occurrence in lower probability areas. This discrepancy is suggestive of a broadening of the ecological niche of A. altissima and may be due to such factors as less intense competition, increased potency of allelopathy, and novel genotypes formed from multiple introductions. The Bayesian model suggests that A. altissima has the potential to substantially expand its distribution in the US.     

Predicting tree death for Fagus sylvatica and Abies alba using permanent plot data

Question: How well can mortality probabilities of deciduous trees(Fagus sylvatica) and conifers (Abies alba) be predicted using permanent plot data that describe growth patterns, tree species, tree size and site conditions? Location: Fagus forests in the montane belt of the Jura folds (Switzerland). Method: Permanent plot data were used to develop and validate logistic regression models predicting survival probabilities of individual trees. Backward model selection led to a reduced model containing the growth‐related variable ‘relative basal area increment’ (growth‐dependent mortality) and variables not directly reflecting growth such as species, size and site (growth‐independent mortality). Results: The growth‐mortality relationship was the same for both species (growth‐dependent mortality). However, species, site and tree size also influenced mortality probabilities (growth‐independent mortality). The predicted survival probabilities of the final model were well calibrated, and the model showed an excellent discriminatory power (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.896). Conclusion: Mortality probabilities of Fagus sylvatica and Abies alba can be predicted with high discriminatory power using a well calibrated logistic regression model. Extending this case study to a larger number of tree species and sites could provide species‐ and site‐specific tree mortality models that allow for more realistic projections of forest succession.     

Kamala tree as an indicator of the presence of Asian elephants during the dry season in the Shivalik landscape of northwestern India

The availability of forage resources during the dry season is often a critical factor in determining the distribution and movement of large herbivores. It has long been suspected that the Kamala tree (Mallotus philippinensis) can serve as an indicator of the distribution for Asian elephants during the dry season in northwestern India. However, there is little direct evidence in support of this speculation, especially at a large landscape scale. Here, we predicted the distribution of Kamala trees in the Shivalik landscape of northwestern India based on topographic and bioclimatic variables, as well as satellite-derived vegetation indices and forest canopy height data using a presence-only ecological niche model. We used the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and true skill statistic (TSS) to validate the model. We then examined the relationship between the occurrence probability of Kamala trees and the presence of Asian elephants with data collected during dry seasons between 2010 and 2014 using logistic regression models. Our results showed that the probability of occurrence of Kamala trees was predicted with good accuracy (AUC = 0.88 and TSS = 0.51). The logistic regression models showed that the presence of Asian elephants can be adequately predicted by the occurrence probability of Kamala trees. This result suggests that the distribution of Kamala trees is a good indicator of the presence of Asian elephants during the dry season in the Shivalik landscape. These findings may have major implications for the conservation of Asian elephants, especially in designing wildlife corridors and mitigating human-elephant conflicts.     

Space Use and Social Mating System of the Hantavirus Host, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Oligoryzomys longicaudatus</Emphasis>

The long-tailed mouse, Oligoryzomys longicaudatus (Cricetidae: Sigmodontinae), is the major host of Andes hantavirus, the etiological agent of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome in the south of Argentina and Chile. Studying the ecology of this species is necessary to understand how Andes hantavirus is maintained in nature. In this study, we examine the home range size and intra- and intersexual overlap degree of male and female O. longicaudatus in order to elucidate the mating system of this species. To our knowledge, this research provides the first documentation, obtained from a specific design, of spacing and mating systems in this species in Argentina. The study was conducted seasonally from April (autumn) 2012 to October (spring) 2013 in a shrubland habitat of Cholila, Andean region, Argentina. We studied spacing patterns using 59 and 51 home ranges established by adult males and females, respectively, in two 3.24 ha capture-marked and recapture grids. Significant differences between sexes in home range size and overlap degree were found. Male home ranges were always larger than those of females. We observed exclusive space use both among males and females (13.15 ± 18.67, and 3.60 ± 3.43%, respectively). Considering only those males that get access to receptive females (40%), average intersexual overlap value was about 30.82 ± 19.73%. Sexual differences in home range sizes and the spatial avoidance between breeding males, that would reflect intrasexual competition for receptive females, allows us to propose a polygynous mating system for O. longicaudatus.     

Experimental evaluation of realized niche models for predicting responses of plant species to a change in environmental conditions

Abstract. We estimated, using logistic regression techniques, the realized niches of the four dominant species in an experimental marsh complex located in the Delta Marsh, Manitoba, Canada. These models were then used to predict the probability of occurrence of these species in selected elevation ranges when water levels were raised in 1985 either 0, 30 or 60 cm above the long-term normal water level. These realized-niche models were calculated using elevation and species data collected in 1980. After having been eliminated by two years of deep flooding, the emergent vegetation in this complex had been re-established during a drawdown beginning in either 1983 or 1984. Our hypothesis was that from 1985 to 1989 the frequencies of occurrence of species in selected elevation ranges would converge to their probabilities predicted from the 1980 logistic models. This was not borne out by our results. Actual frequencies and predicted probabilities of occurrence of a species were similar at best less than 40% and then mostly in the control (0 cm) treatment. The realized-niche models were not adequate to predict the distribution of emergents after an increase in water level in the short term because the emergent species did not migrate upslope. Emergent species in the medium and high treatments either (1) died out - Scolochloa festucacea and Scirpus lacustris - after 3 yr because they could not survive permanent flooding, (2) stayed where they were - Phragmites australis - because they were unable to move upslope through clonal growth, or (3) became more widespread - Typha glauca only because of the expansion of small local populations already established in 1985 in areas dominated formerly by other species.     

Habitat use by endemic and introduced rodents along a gradient of forest disturbance in Madagascar

We used logistic and Poisson regression models to determine factors of forest and landscape structure that influence the presence and abundance of rodent species in the rain forest of Ranomafana National Park in southeastern Madagascar. Rodents were collected using live-traps along a gradient of human disturbance. All five endemic rodent species (Nesomys rufus, N. audeberti, Eliurus tanala, E. minor and E. webbi) and the introduced rat Rattus rattus were captured in both secondary and primary forests, but the introduced Mus musculus was only trapped in secondary forest. The abundance of R. rattus increased with the level of habitat disturbance, and it was most common in the heavily logged secondary forest. Furthermore, the probability of the presence of R. rattus increased with decreasing distance from forest edge and decreasing canopy cover, while the probability of presence increased with increasing herbaceous cover, altitude and overstory tree height. The species was never observed farther than 500 m away from human habitation or camp-site. N. rufus prefered selectively-logged forest at altitudes above 900 m a.s.l. Its probability of presence increased with increasing canopy cover, herbaceous cover and distance from forest edge, and with decreasing density of fallen logs, overstory tree height and distance from human habitation. N. audeberti prefered heavily-logged areas, while E. tanala was the only species occurring along the entire range of forest disturbance. We suggest that in the Ranomafana National Park the spread of R. rattus is associated with deforestation.     

基于MaxEnt模型的云南干热河谷适生树种选择

基于MaxEnt模型识别和预测云南干热河谷适生树种,对于改善和恢复其生态治理能力具有重要意义。收集40种具有代表性的潜在适生树种地理分布数据,结合气候、地形和土壤等环境因子,利用MaxEnt模型筛选适生树种。预测当前和2021-2040年四种气候情景下(SSP126、SSP245、SSP370和SSP585)适生树种适生区的分布格局,划分优先种植区域,并明确MaxEnt模型用于树种选择的可行性。结果表明:(1)当前气候情景下,影响干热河谷潜在适生树种分布的主导因子是气候因子,其次是海拔、植物归一化指数、地表太阳辐射量和人类足迹。(2)未来,24种适生树种适生区稳定,发生概率与海拔关系呈单峰分布且高海拔下适生树种丰富度将降低。(3)干热河谷适生树种优先种植区域沿干热河谷呈狭长分布;实际调查发现,元谋县适生树种实际分布区域面积略高于最佳种植区域面积。应用MaxEnt模型筛选干热河谷适生树种选择是可行的,但在应用之前必须通过实地调查来验证树种实际生存情况与预测结果的差异。在干热河谷生态修复造林时,可优先考虑白枪杆、车桑子等24种树种。     

NOTE ON THE NIDIFICATION OF

Palearctic migrant birds are declining, including the Northern Wheatear, and some of the causes of these declines are likely to be operating on their wintering grounds in Africa. We examined seasonal and spatial variation in wintering densities of Northern Wheatears in northern Nigeria, and explored the species’ habitat associations on the wintering grounds to assess the likely effects of habitat change in the Sahel on this species. Densities of Northern Wheatears across northern Nigeria were calculated from point count data gathered during two winters (2000 and 2001) using Distance software, and the relationships between Wheatear presence and habitat variables collected from the same points were explored using general linear models. During mid-winter and early spring, densities of Northern Wheatears peaked, with significantly more birds present in western than eastern study sites. The probability of wheatear occurrence was correlated with Balanites and Salvadora tree density and mean tree height. The Northern Wheatear may benefit from the conversion of woodland habitats in the Sahel to more open savanna. However, sites with very low tree densities showed low probabilities of Northern Wheatears being present, suggesting excessive tree clearance may have a negative effect upon the species.     

Going undercover: increasing canopy cover around a host tree drives associational resistance to an insect pest

Neighbouring heterospecific plants are often observed to reduce the probability of herbivore attack on a given focal plant. While this pattern of associational resistance is frequently reported, experimental evidence for underlying mechanisms is rare particularly for potential plant species diversity effects on focal host plants and their physical environment. Here, we used an established forest diversity experiment to determine whether tree diversity effects on an important insect pest are driven by concomitant changes in host tree growth or the light environment. We examined the effects of tree species richness, canopy cover and tree growth on the probability of occurrence, the abundance, and volume of galls caused by the pineapple gall adelgid Adelges abietis on Norway spruce. Although tree diversity had no effect on gall abundance, we observed that both the probability of gall presence and gall volume (an indicator of maternal fecundity) decreased with tree species richness and canopy cover around host spruce trees. Structural equation models revealed that effects of tree species richness on gall presence and volume were mediated by concurrent increases in canopy cover rather than changes in tree growth or host tree density. As canopy cover did not influence tree or shoot growth, patterns of associational resistance appear to be driven by improved host tree quality or more favourable microclimatic conditions in monocultures compared to mixed‐stands. Our study therefore demonstrates that changes in forest structure may be critical to understanding the responses of herbivores to plant diversity and may underpin associational effects in forest ecosystems.     

Regional and local effects of disturbance and climate on altitudinal treelines in northern Patagonia

Abstract. In this field study we analysed the regional and local scale effects of disturbance and climate on altitudinal treelines dominated by Nothofagus pumilio in northern Patagonia. We compared two regions west and east of the Andes at 40° S, slopes with warm vs cool aspects and undisturbed vs locally disturbed treelines. This spatial framework allowed us to test (1) for differences among treelines affected by different types of local disturbance and (2) the traditional hypothesis that low temperature limits treeline. Contingency tables and ANOVA showed that local disturbance occurred more frequently than expected on slopes with cool aspects, steep slope angles and concave slope configuration. Disturbed treelines were locally lowered with longer ecotones and lower krummholz growth rates and vegetation cover than undisturbed treelines. Three‐way ANOVA showed the significant influences of study area (regional climate) and aspect (local climate) on treeline elevation, krummholz growth rates and density, tree density and vegetation cover, while accounting for local disturbance. Treeline elevations were higher east of the Andes reflecting the more continental climate in Argentina than in Chile, plus regional impacts of volcanic eruptions. Tree density and vegetation cover were greater west of the Andes reflecting greater precipitation in Chile. Within study areas, local climate had different influences on treeline elevations and krummholz growth rates west and east of the Andes. We predict that increased tree growth and upslope advance of treeline in response to global warming is more likely in Chile than in Argentina near 40° S, unless precipitation increases east of the Andes. To test these predictions, we recommend research be stratified to account for the influences of local disturbance, which may confound climatic impacts. In northern Patagonia, suitable control (undisturbed) study sites will most likely be found at upper slope positions with low slope angles, simple microtopography and straight topographic configuration.     

Stand characteristics in colour-infrared aerial photographs as indicators of epiphytic lichens

Information about forest biodiversity has so far been collected mostly by using field inventories, but it is desirable to find other methods that can cover large areas at a lower cost. In a forest landscape covering 2000 ha in southern Sweden we tested if colour-infrared (CIR) aerial photographs on the scale of 1:30000 can be used to interpret forest stand characteristics correlated to the occurrence of epiphytic lichens that are Red-listed or otherwise indicate high nature conservation value (signal species). Using logistic regression we found that the interpreted stand variables tree height and crown structure class were significantly correlated to the occurrence of Red-listed species. For signal species, the variables tree height, percentage of southern deciduous trees and crown structure class were significantly correlated to the occurrence. The logistic regression models successfully predicted a significantly higher probability to find Red-listed species in the stands that actually contained such species compared to stands without Red-listed species. The same was true for stands with signal species. We conclude that interpretation of CIR aerial photographs could be a useful method to find certain groups of epiphytic lichens in surveys covering large areas.     

Using map algebra to determine the mesoscale distribution of invasive plants: the case of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Celastrus orbiculatus</Emphasis> in Southern Illinois,USA

Since its introduction into North America in the late 19th century, Celastrus orbiculatus (Thumb.) has become a serious ecological threat to native ecosystems. Development of a method to accurately map the occurrence of invasive plants, including C. orbiculatus, would greatly assist in their assessment and control. Using an innovative map regression model, we predicted 85% of presence and absence of C. orbiculatus within our study area. We identify environmental characteristics associated with C. orbiculatus and demonstrate the use of this information to predict occurrence of C. orbiculatus across a broad area in Southern Illinois, USA. Presence and absence information were obtained at sample points within discrete areas of C. orbiculatus occurrence. Forest cover, elevation, slope gradient and aspect, soil pH and texture, distance to nearest road, and potential annual direct incident radiation were recorded for invaded and adjacent non-invaded areas. Presence of oak, elevation, slope gradient, soil pH, soil texture, and distance to road were significant factors associated with the presence or absence of C. orbiculatus. Probability of occurrence of C. orbiculatus was highest on gently sloping interfluves with successional forest canopy not dominated by oak, and less acidic, mesic soil. A logistic regression model was developed and extrapolated over a raster GIS data layer using map algebra to predict current invasion throughout the study area. The model correctly predicted at least 85% occurrence of C. orbiculatus. When combined with logistic regression, map algebra is a potentially powerful tool for evaluating the spatial distribution of invasive plants provided sound statistical principles are applied in extrapolating validated regression models.     

Seasonal Habitat Associations of the Wolverine in Central Idaho

ABSTRACT Although understanding habitat relationships remains fundamental to guiding wildlife management, these basic prerequisites remain vague and largely unstudied for the wolverine. Currently, a study of wolverine ecology conducted in Montana, USA, in the 1970s is the sole source of information on habitat requirements of wolverines in the conterminous United States. The Montana study and studies conducted in Canada and Alaska report varying degrees of seasonal differences in wolverine habitat use. This article provides an empirical assessment of seasonal wolverine habitat use by 15 wolverines (Gulo gulo) radiotracked in central Idaho, USA, in 1992–1996. We controlled for radiotelemetry error by describing the probability of each location being in a habitat cover type, producing a vector of cover type probabilities suited for resource selection analysis within a logistic regression framework. We identified variables that were important to presence of wolverines based on their strength (significance) and consistency (variability in coeff. sign) across all possible logistic regression models containing 9 habitat cover types and 3 topographic variables. We selected seasonal habitat models that incorporated those variables that were strong and consistent, producing a subset of potential models. We then ranked the models in this subset based on Akaike's Information Criterion and goodness-of-fit. Wolverines used modestly higher elevations in summer versus winter, and they shifted use of cover types from whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) in summer to lower elevation Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziezii) and lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) communities in winter. Elevation explained use of habitat better than any other variable in both summer and winter. Grass and shrub habitats and slope also had explanatory power. Wolverines preferred northerly aspects, had no attraction to or avoidance of trails during summer, and avoided roads and ungulate winter range. These findings improve our understanding of wolverine presence by demonstrating the importance of high-elevation subalpine habitats to central Idaho wolverines.     

Species’ response patterns to habitat fragmentation: do trees support the extinction threshold hypothesis?

In fragmented landscapes the relationship between the probability of occurrence of single species and the amount of suitable habitat is usually not proportional, with a threshold habitat level below which the population becomes extinct. Ecological theory predicts that, although the reduction in species’ occurrence probabilities (and eventually the extinction threshold) is a direct consequence of habitat loss, habitat fragmentation might reduce species’ occurrence probabilities and affect the location of this threshold by reducing its predicted occurrence to lower levels of habitat amount. However, little is known about the validity of this extinction threshold hypothesis. Here, we performed analyses on the relationships between the probability of occurrence of eight tree species and the availability of forest habitat for two different empirical scenarios of low and moderate to high fragmentation. We partitioned the effects of habitat amount versus fragmentation by using two metrics: (1) the percentage of forest cover, and (2) the proportion of this percentage occurring in the largest forest patch. We find that, although decreasing forest cover had negative effects on the occurrence of tree species irrespective of fragmentation levels, forest fragmentation significantly modified the response pattern in six tree species, although only one species confirmed the extinction threshold hypothesis, which we interpret as a consequence of high degree of forest specialism and low dispersal ability. For most species, fragmentation either had positive effects or did not affect significantly the species’ probability of occurrence. This indicates that the effects of habitat fragmentation on tree species are weak relative to the effects of habitat amount, which is the main determinant of the reduction in species’ occurrence probabilities, and eventually species extinction, in fragmented landscapes.     

Microhabitat preference constrains invasive spread of non-native natal grass (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Melinis repens</Emphasis>)

Preventing the establishment of a non-native species is critical for ensuring the species does not become invasive, yet most non-native species will have little impact on their environment. Despite this, little is known about what influences whether a species will remain relatively benign, or whether it will cause economic or ecological harm. Understanding a plant’s microhabitat provides insight into the necessary conditions for establishment and the current distribution limitations of a population. We investigated microhabitat preference of the non-native natal grass (Melinis repens (Willd.) Zizka) in Florida scrub using microhabitat sampling to measure vegetation composition. We examined the extent to which microhabitats were associated with natal grass presence and biomass in invaded disturbed scrub and roadside plots using backwards stepwise logistic regression and general linear models to identify significant microhabitat variables. We further compared these plots with those in undisturbed, uninvaded scrub to characterize vegetation across habitat types, and used our model to predict the probability of natal grass invasion in undisturbed scrub. Natal grass preferred microhabitats with high litter volume and distance to shrubs and intermediate cactus, graminoid, and vine cover. Roadside natal grass achieved higher biomass and was less microhabitat limited than disturbed scrub natal grass. We determined that undisturbed scrub plots represent distinct microhabitats that natal grass is unlikely to invade. Microhabitat sampling provides land-managers a non-intrusive technique to assess potential habitat suitability based non-native plant preferences before a costly invasion occurs.     

Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of threatened forest‐restricted birds in Madagascar

The greatest common threat to birds in Madagascar has historically been from anthropogenic deforestation. During recent decades, global climate change is now also regarded as a significant threat to biodiversity. This study uses Maximum Entropy species distribution modeling to explore how potential climate change could affect the distribution of 17 threatened forest endemic bird species, using a range of climate variables from the Hadley Center's HadCM3 climate change model, for IPCC scenario B2a, for 2050. We explore the importance of forest cover as a modeling variable and we test the use of pseudo‐presences drawn from extent of occurrence distributions. Inclusion of the forest cover variable improves the models and models derived from real‐presence data with forest layer are better predictors than those from pseudo‐presence data. Using real‐presence data, we analyzed the impacts of climate change on the distribution of nine species. We could not predict the impact of climate change on eight species because of low numbers of occurrences. All nine species were predicted to experience reductions in their total range areas, and their maximum modeled probabilities of occurrence. In general, species range and altitudinal contractions follow the reductive trend of the Maximum presence probability. Only two species (Tyto soumagnei and Newtonia fanovanae) are expected to expand their altitude range. These results indicate that future availability of suitable habitat at different elevations is likely to be critical for species persistence through climate change. Five species (Eutriorchis astur, Neodrepanis hypoxantha, Mesitornis unicolor, Euryceros prevostii, and Oriola bernieri) are probably the most vulnerable to climate change. Four of them (E. astur, M. unicolor, E. prevostii, and O. bernieri) were found vulnerable to the forest fragmentation during previous research. Combination of these two threats in the future could negatively affect these species in a drastic way. Climate change is expected to act differently on each species and it is important to incorporate complex ecological variables into species distribution models.     

Where do Swainson's hawks winter? Satellite images used to identify potential habitat

During recent years, predictive modelling techniques have been increasingly used to identify regional patterns of species spatial occurrence, to explore species–habitat relationships and to aid in biodiversity conservation. In the case of birds, predictive modelling has been mainly applied to the study of species with little variable interannual patterns of spatial occurrence (e.g. year‐round resident species or migratory species in their breeding grounds showing territorial behaviour). We used predictive models to analyse the factors that determine broad‐scale patterns of occurrence and abundance of wintering Swainson's hawks (Buteo swainsoni). This species has been the focus of field monitoring in its wintering ground in Argentina due to massive pesticide poisoning of thousands of individuals during the 1990s, but its unpredictable pattern of spatial distribution and the uncertainty about the current wintering area occupied by hawks led to discontinuing such field monitoring. Data on the presence and abundance of hawks were recorded in 30 × 30 km squares (n = 115) surveyed during three austral summers (2001–03). Sixteen land‐use/land‐cover, topography, and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) variables were used as predictors to build generalized additive models (GAMs). Both occurrence and abundance models showed a good predictive ability. Land use, altitude, and NDVI during spring previous to the arrival of hawks to wintering areas were good predictors of the distribution of Swainson's hawks in the Argentine pampas, but only land use and NDVI were entered into the model of abundance of the species in the region. The predictive cartography developed from the models allowed us to identify the current wintering area of Swainson's hawks in the Argentine pampas. The highest occurrence probability and relative abundances for the species were predicted for a broad area of south‐eastern pampas that has been overlooked so far and where neither field research nor conservation efforts aiming to prevent massive mortalities has been established.