Enteroviruses in the XX and XXI centuries

The modern view of the role of enteroviruses in the eradication of poliomyelitis is presented. Enteroviruses were discovered in the XX century. In the 1950s they caused great epidemics of poliomyelitis and serous meningitis in many countries of the world. The introduction of oral poliomyelitis vaccine (OPV) into medical practice made it possible to eliminate the epidemics of poliomyelitis in a short time. Poliomyelitis morbidity was reduced to sporadic cases and in a number of regions disappeared. OPV produced non-specific influence also on the epidemics of serous meningitis, as well as on a case incidence. The eradication of poliomyelitis viruses and the cessation of immunization with OPV will not result in eradication of paralytic diseases. Paralytogenic viruses of 20 serotypes circulate in nature, and some of these viruses are capable of causing the outbreaks of severe paralytic diseases. The authors propose either to retain immunization with OVP as tour immunizations with monovaccine of type 2, or to create new live enterovirus vaccines on the basis of avirulent enterovirus strains.     

Congenital absence of the gallbladder; case report

The virus of human poliomyelitis has been demonstrated in excretions before onset of the disease, during the disease, and in convalescence. It may be confused with different viruses likely to be found in the same sources in clinical conditions resembling poliomyelitis.Immunologic differences between strains of poliomyelitis virus have been detected so that three types are now evident. The distribution of these types and their importance as causes of epidemics are not known. This multiplicity of immunologic types is an important factor in considering immunization of humans. Commercial manufacture of vaccines faces many technical problems. Recently the Coxsackie virus has been demonstrated in humans with a disease closely resembling poliomyelitis.     

Congenital Absence of the Gallbladder: Case Report

The virus of human poliomyelitis has been demonstrated in excretions before onset of the disease, during the disease, and in convalescence. It may be confused with different viruses likely to be found in the same sources in clinical conditions resembling poliomyelitis.Immunologic differences between strains of poliomyelitis virus have been detected so that three types are now evident. The distribution of these types and their importance as causes of epidemics are not known. This multiplicity of immunologic types is an important factor in considering immunization of humans. Commercial manufacture of vaccines faces many technical problems.Recently the Coxsackie virus has been demonstrated in humans with a disease closely resembling poliomyelitis.     

Outside Europe. Is poliomyelitis a serious problem in developing countries?--the Danfa experience.

Children were examined for lameness in the Danfa Project district of rural Ghana to assess the impact of endemic poliomyelitis and to test a widely held hypothesis that paralytic poliomyelitis is relatively rare in such districts (less than 1 per 1000 children affected). The observed prevalence of lameness attributable to poliomyelitis was 7 per 1000 school-aged children, and the annual incidence is estimated to be at least 28 per 100 000 population. Although no evidence for an epidemic was found, these rates are comparable with those in the USA and Europe during the years of severe epidemics and indicate that a high price is being paid in the Danfa district for the natural acquisition of immunity. As a result, immunisation against poliomyelitis has been given high priority. A teacher questionnaire was also tested for use in postal surveys as a rapid means of estimating the prevalence of lamenes attributable to poliomyelitis in countries with a reasonable network of primary schools.     

Is poliomyelitis a serious problem in developing countries?--lameness in Ghanaian schools.

A postal survey of lameness in schools throughout Ghana showed an estimated prevalence of lameness attributable to poliomyetitis of 5-8 per 1000 school-aged children and an estimated mean annual incidence of paralytic poliomyelitis of 23 per 100 000 population. Official reported incidence rates range from 0-1 to 2-1 per 100 000 population, indicating that at least 90% of cases are not reported. No evidence of epidemics was found to account for these high rates. These suggest that mean annual incidence rates in tropical endemic countries have always been as great, if not greater, than those experienced by temperate countries during epidemic periods in the twentieth century and that the total number of cases of paralytic poliomyelitis occurring in the world each year has been reduced by only 25% since the advent of polio vaccine. Immunisation against poliomyelitis must have a high priority in Ghana and other tropical countries where the disease is endemic.     

Diet and nutrition in wild mongoose lemurs (Eulemur mongoz) and their implications for the evolution of female dominance and small group size in lemurs

Data collected on the feeding behavior, food intake, and chemical analyses of plant foods were used to document seasonal variation in diet and nutrition in Eulemur mongoz in northwestern Madagascar. E. mongoz conforms to the general Eulemur dietary pattern, with a predominantly frugivorous diet supplemented mainly by leaves, flowers, and nectar. Phytochemical analysis revealed high water contents in all the main plant foods; mature fruit and flowers contained the most water-soluble carbohydrates; immature leaves were richest in protein and essential amino acids; the limiting amino acids in all plant foods were methionine and cystine; ash (mineral) content was highest in petioles and mature leaves; crude lipid content was highest in seeds; and crude fiber content was indistinguishable between immature and mature fruit and leaves. High-fiber foods were eaten during both seasons; the wet season diet was dominated by high-energy foods (mature fruit, nectar, and seeds), while the dry season diet contained foods high in energy (mature fruit and flowers) and high in protein (immature leaves) and minerals (mature leaves and petioles). However, nutrient intake did not vary between seasons, implying that nutrient requirements are met throughout the year. These results suggest we draw more conservative conclusions when interpreting dietary variability in the absence of chemical analysis, and also draw into question the idea that nutritional stress is a factor in the timing of reproduction in lemurs and, by extension, is linked to the prevalence of female dominance and small group size in lemurs.     

POLIOMYELITIS VACCINE—Epidemiologic Observations on the Safety and Effectiveness in California in 1955

During the past year California has participated with other states in a nationwide field evaluation of the safety and effectiveness of poliomyelitis vaccine. Among 227,000 children who received Cutter vaccine, and the household contracts of these children, the incidence of poliomyelitis was higher during the early postvaccinal period than in comparable age groups of the population at large. Among 238,000 children who received poliomyelitis vaccine made by other manufacturers early in 1955 no increase in poliomyelitis was observed in the inoculated children or their household contacts.Subsequent observation on over 500,000 additional children vaccinated in California alone since September 1955 with vaccine that was made under revised safety standards has uncovered no evidence of unsafe vaccine. In children who received a single inoculation of vaccine prior to the onset of the poliomyelitis season in 1955 the incidence of paralytic poliomyelitis was about 60 per cent less than in unvaccinated children. Among those who received two inoculations an 85 per cent reduction was observed. The average reduction in paralytic poliomyelitis for the entire vaccinated group was approximately 75 per cent. Data thus far on children vaccinated since September 1955 with poliomyelitis vaccine made by methods now approved indicate that a similar overall effectiveness is still being maintained.     

Does relative economic value of food elicit purposeful encounter in the yellow baboons (Papio hamadryas cynocephalus) of Ruaha National Park, Tanzania?

In the dry season, baboons traveled purposefully to spatially predictable foods that provided a relatively large number of grams per minute of preparation (e.g., economical foods), but not to predictable foods that merely accounted for a large proportion of feeding time (Pochron in Int J Primatol 22:773-785, 2001). In this paper, I examined the generality of those findings across seasons and applied the same methods to baboons eating a lush-season diet. I hypothesized that baboons should travel quickly and directly (i.e., purposefully) only to economical foods. The change in diet brought about by season provided an important comparison. In the lush season, none of the spatially predictable foods provided a relatively large number of grams per minute of preparation, so baboons were predicted to travel purposefully to no lush-season food. In short, baboons who traveled quickly and directly to some foods in the dry season were expected to use indirect and/or slow travel for all lush-season foods. The hypothesis was supported—baboons traveled quickly and directly to no lush-season food. Detailed comparisons between the dry- and lush-season characteristics of baobab fruit show that the foods economic value relative to other foods predicts concurrent fast and direct travel, or the lack thereof, in both seasons.This revised version was published online in April 2005 with corrections to the cover date of the issue.     

Red howler monkey birth data I: Seasonal variation

A large set of birth data from a population of red howler monkeys (Alouatta seniculus) in two habitats found a consistent birth “dip,” with births occurring less frequently in early wet season (May–July) than during the remaining months. In one of two habitats, births were negatively correlated with rainfall, and viable conceptions were positively correlated with rainfall. The observed degree of within-troop birth synchrony appeared to reflect populational synchrony with environmental factors. Correlations between births and the phenology of plant foods were not striking, but there was weak support for the hypothesis that births are timed to maximize the availability of weaning foods. Reduced births in early wet season also minimize the number of Infants who would experience the transition to independent locomotion and feeding during the peak of the dry season when probable low moisture content of foods and high daytime temperatures might be disadvantageous. However, there was no relationship between season of birth and infant mortality.     

Length of intervals between epidemics: evaluating the influence of maternal transfer of immunity

The length of intervals between epidemic outbreaks of infectious diseases is critical in epidemiology. In several species of marine mammals and birds, it is pivotal to also consider the life history of the species of concern, as the contact rate between individuals can have a seasonal flux, for example, due to aggregations during the breeding season. Recently, particular interest has been given to the role of the dynamics of immunity in determining the intervals between epidemics in wild animal populations. One potentially powerful, but often neglected, process in this context is the maternal transfer of immunity. Here, we explore theoretically how the transfer of maternal antibodies can delay the recurrence of epidemics using Phocine Distemper in harbor seals as an example of a system in which epidemic outbreaks are followed by pathogen extinction. We show that the presence of temporarily protected newborns can significantly increase the predicted interval between epidemics, and this effect is strongly dependent on the degree of synchrony in the breeding season. Furthermore, we found that stochasticity in the onset of epidemics in combination with maternally acquired immunity increases the predicted intervals between epidemics even more. These effects arise because newborns with maternal antibodies temporarily boost population level immunity above the threshold of herd immunity, particularly when breeding is synchronous. Overall, our results show that maternal antibodies can have a profound influence on the dynamics of wildlife epidemics, notably in gregarious species such as many marine mammals and seabirds.     

An overview of the evolution of enterovirus 71 and its clinical and public health significance

Since its discovery in 1969, enterovirus 71 (EV71) has been recognised as a frequent cause of epidemics of hand-foot-and-mouth disease (HFMD) associated with severe neurological sequelae in a small proportion of cases. There has been a significant increase in EV71 epidemic activity throughout the Asia-Pacific region since 1997. Recent HFMD epidemics in this region have been associated with a severe form of brainstem encephalitis associated with pulmonary oedema and high case-fatality rates. The emergence of large-scale epidemic activity in the Asia-Pacific region has been associated with the circulation of three genetic lineages that appear to be undergoing rapid evolutionary change. Two of these lineages (B3 and B4) have not been described previously and appear to have arisen from an endemic focus in equatorial Asia, which has served as a source of virus for HFMD epidemics in Malaysia, Singapore and Australia. The third lineage (C2) has previously been identified [Brown, B.A. et al. (1999) J. Virol. 73, 9969-9975] and was primarily responsible for the large HFMD epidemic in Taiwan during 1998. As EV71 appears not to be susceptible to newly developed antiviral agents and a vaccine is not currently available, control of EV71 epidemics through high-level surveillance and public health intervention needs to be maintained and extended throughout the Asia-Pacific region. Future research should focus on (1) understanding the molecular genetics of EV71 virulence, (2) identification of the receptor(s) for EV71, (3) development of antiviral agents to ameliorate the severity of neurological disease and (4) vaccine development to control epidemics. Following the successful experience of the poliomyelitis control programme, it may be possible to control EV71 epidemics if an effective live-attenuated vaccine is developed.     

Partial feeding preferences and the profitability of winter-feeding sites for brent geese

The suitability of depletion theory for predicting the distribution and movements of wintering brent geese feeding in habitat patches containing foods differing qualitatively as well as quantitatively is evaluated. By monitoring both digestibility and nutrient content of potential foods throughout the season, we assess profitability of habitat patches using assimilation rates.

We argue that these geese do not conform to the predictions of an ideal free distribution because they are constrained both by nitrogen limitation and perceived mortality risks. Instead, for most of the season they exhibited partial feeding preferences by feeding on two or more types of food each day. They fed on salt marsh plants throughout the entire wintering season. In addition, from October until March they fed for part of each day on supplementary sites that were more profitable for nitrogen. In October they fed first on intertidal algae, the most profitable source of nitrogen. When this became depleted in late autumn, they moved inland to feed initially on winter wheat, where they were subject to control shooting, then onto pastures. By mid-March the pastures were no longer a significantly more profitable source of nitrogen. The geese then switched to feeding only on the salt marshes at a cost of a 39% decrease in their overall assimilation rates.

The nitrogen limitation hypothesis was supported by results of experimentally altering the nitrogen content of pasture swards. Feeding preferences correlated positively with changes in nitrogen content, but not water-soluble carbohydrate content of experimental swards.

We conclude that predictions of simple depletion models are unlikely to explain the movements of herbivores between patches that differ in digestibility and nutrient content as well as in the quantity of foods available and that multi-currency models are a more appropriate means of predicting foraging behaviour of herbivores exhibiting partial feeding preferences.     

Nutritional correlates of the “lean season”: Effects of seasonality and frugivory on the nutritional ecology of diademed sifakas

Primate field studies often identify “lean seasons,” when preferred foods are scarce, and lower‐quality, abundant foods (fallback foods) are consumed. Here, we quantify the nutritional implications of these terms for two diademed sifaka groups (Propithecus diadema) in Madagascar, using detailed feeding observations and chemical analyses of foods. In particular, we sought to understand 1) how macronutrient and energy intakes vary seasonally, including whether these intakes respond in similar or divergent ways; 2) how the amount of food ingested varies seasonally (including whether changes in amount eaten may compensate for altered food quality); and 3) correlations between these variables and the degree of frugivory. In the lean season, sifakas shifted to non‐fruit foods (leaves and flowers), which tended to be high in protein while low in other macronutrients and energy, but the average composition of the most used foods in each season was similar. They also showed dramatic decreases in feeding time, food ingested, and consequently, daily intake of macronutrients and energy. The degree of frugivory in the daily diet was a strong positive predictor of feeding time, amount ingested and all macronutrient and energy intakes, though season had an independent effect. These results suggest that factors restricting how much food can be eaten (e.g., handling time, availability, or intrinsic characteristics like fiber and plant secondary metabolites) can be more important than the nutritional composition of foods themselves in determining nutritional outcomes—a finding with relevance for understanding seasonal changes in behavior, life history strategies, competitive regimes, and conservation planning. Am J Phys Anthropol 153:78–91, 2014. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Dynamics of annual influenza A epidemics with immuno-selection

 The persistence of Influenza A in the human population relies on continual changes in the viral surface antigens allowing the virus to reinfect the same hosts every few years. The epidemiology of such a drifting virus is modeled by a discrete season-to-season map. During the epidemic season only one strain is present and its transmission dynamics follows a standard epidemic model. After the season, cross-immunity to next year's virus is determined from the proportion of hosts that were infected during the season. A partial analysis of this map shows the existence of oscillations where epidemics occur at regular or irregular intervals. Received: 16 February 2001 / Revised version: 11 June 2002 / Published online: 28 February 2003 Key words or phrases: Infectious disease – Influenza drift – Cross-immunity – Seasonal epidemics – Iterated map     

Microclimate Impacts Survival and Prevalence of Phytophthora ramorum in Umbellularia californica,a Key Reservoir Host of Sudden Oak Death in Northern California Forests

Phytophthora ramorum, an invasive pathogen and the causal agent of Sudden Oak Death, has become established in mixed-evergreen and redwood forests in coastal northern California. While oak and tanoak mortality is the most visible indication of P. ramorum’s presence, epidemics are largely driven by the presence of bay laurel (Umbellularia californica), a reservoir host that supports both prolific sporulation in the winter wet season and survival during the summer dry season. In order to better understand how over-summer survival of the pathogen contributes to variability in the severity of annual epidemics, we monitored the viability of P. ramorum leaf infections over three years along with coincident microclimate. The proportion of symptomatic bay laurel leaves that contained viable infections decreased during the first summer dry season and remained low for the following two years, likely due to the absence of conducive wet season weather during the study period. Over-summer survival of P. ramorum was positively correlated with high percent canopy cover, less negative bay leaf water potential and few days exceeding 30°C but was not significantly different between mixed-evergreen and redwood forest ecosystems. Decreased summer survival of P. ramorum in exposed locations and during unusually hot summers likely contributes to the observed spatiotemporal heterogeneity of P. ramorum epidemics.     

The poliomyelitis story: a scientific hegira

There is evidence that paralytic poliomyelitis occurred in ancient times, but it was not recognized as a distinct disease until the eighteenth century and did not come into prominence until the late nineteenth century when epidemics began to appear. Outbreaks of increasing size were reported first in the Scandinavian countries, then in the United States and elsewhere, to the surprise and consternation of the medical profession. Poliovirus was first isolated in 1908, but many years of intensive research were required before the epidemiology and pathogenesis of the disease were sufficiently understood to allow preventive measures to be devised. The road to eventual success was complicated by controversies, setbacks, and tragedies, played out and influenced by many powerful personalities. Today there are two effective vaccines. The disease has been virtually eliminated in countries where they have been used extensively, yet in the developing areas of the world recent "lameness surveys" indicate that the incidence of paralytic poliomyelitis is as high as it was during the peak years in the United States in the early 1950s. The challenge now is to use the available vaccines to extend control to the developing countries and eventually to achieve elimination of the disease worldwide.     

Understanding and improving access to prompt and effective malaria treatment and care in rural Tanzania: the ACCESS Programme

Background

Malaria is a significant public health problem in Tanzania. Approximately 16 million malaria cases are reported every year and 100,000 to 125,000 deaths occur. Although most of Tanzania is endemic to malaria, epidemics occur in the highlands, notably in Kagera, a region that was subject to widespread malaria epidemics in 1997 and 1998. This study examined the relationship between climate and malaria incidence in Kagera with the aim of determining whether seasonal forecasts may assist in predicting malaria epidemics.

Methods

A regression analysis was performed on retrospective malaria and climatic data during each of the two annual malaria seasons to determine the climatic factors influencing malaria incidence. The ability of the DEMETER seasonal forecasting system in predicting the climatic anomalies associated with malaria epidemics was then assessed for each malaria season.

Results

It was found that malaria incidence is positively correlated with rainfall during the first season (Oct-Mar) (R-squared = 0.73, p < 0.01). For the second season (Apr-Sep), high malaria incidence was associated with increased rainfall, but also with high maximum temperature during the first rainy season (multiple R-squared = 0.79, p < 0.01). The robustness of these statistical models was tested by excluding the two epidemic years from the regression analysis. DEMETER would have been unable to predict the heavy El Niño rains associated with the 1998 epidemic. Nevertheless, this epidemic could still have been predicted using the temperature forecasts alone. The 1997 epidemic could have been predicted from observed temperatures in the preceding season, but the consideration of the rainfall forecasts would have improved the temperature-only forecasts over the remaining years.

Conclusion

These results demonstrate the potential of a seasonal forecasting system in the development of a malaria early warning system in Kagera region.     

A new method for disease-loss studies used to estimate effects of Pyrenophom teres and Rhynchosporium secalis on winter barley yields

SUMMARY
It may be argued that the basic task of yield-loss studies is to estimate the rate at which a given amount of disease causes a crop to lose yield at each instant during the growing season. This loss rate function can be estimated from detailed data on sets of epidemics and the yields resulting from them in otherwise similar crops. Under certain circumstances, the calculations reduce to regression of yield on integrals of functions of developmental time and disease. Thermal time may form a suitable approximation to developmental time.
The technique was tested using 30 plots 12m × 4 m of winter barley cv. Sonja, in which epidemics of Pyrenophora teres and Rhynchosporium secalis developed. An equation describing loss rate due to P. teres throughout the season and R. secalis in spring was successfully developed. The loss rate due to P. teres was greatest later in the season, and disproportionately severe at low disease levels. On the basis of this experiment the proposed technique compares well with alternatives.     

Graminivory and Fallback Foods: Annual Diet Profile of Geladas (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Theropithecus gelada</Emphasis>) Living in the Simien Mountains National Park,Ethiopia

All primates show some dietary flexibility, particularly during food shortages. Foods consumed during times of scarcity (i.e., fallback foods) strongly influence the ecology and evolution of a species. Geladas (Theropithecus gelada) eat primarily graminoid leaves (i.e., grasses and sedges), but also consume other diet items (e.g., underground storage organs), especially in the dry season. We investigated the feeding ecology of wild geladas in the Sankaber region of the Simien Mountains National Park, Ethiopia across 12 mo. We asked how the gelada diet in this region, which is disturbed by livestock and agriculture, correlated with food availability and whether underground foods are fallback foods. We quantified the monthly diets of adults from eight reproductive units using instantaneous scan sampling, and seasonal aboveground and underground food availability using point-intercept transects and soil core sampling. Geladas primarily consumed graminoid leaves year-round (76.3% of the annual diet, 36.2–93.2% of the monthly diet) but spent considerable time consuming underground foods in the dry season (14.0% of the annual diet, 11.1–49.7% of the diet across dry season months). Graminoid consumption increased with graminoid availability, and underground food consumption decreased with graminoid availability. Underground food availability did not vary significantly between the dry and wet season sampling months, supporting the hypothesis that underground foods are fallback foods for geladas. We then compiled data from gelada feeding studies and found that underground foods are an important dry season diet item across study sites, but geladas rely more heavily on underground foods in habitats more heavily influenced by humans. Understanding the range and effects of primate dietary flexibility in human-modified habitats will contribute to a better understanding of how changing environments shape primate ecology and evolution.     

Environmental Predictors of Seasonal Influenza Epidemics across Temperate and Tropical Climates

Human influenza infections exhibit a strong seasonal cycle in temperate regions. Recent laboratory and epidemiological evidence suggests that low specific humidity conditions facilitate the airborne survival and transmission of the influenza virus in temperate regions, resulting in annual winter epidemics. However, this relationship is unlikely to account for the epidemiology of influenza in tropical and subtropical regions where epidemics often occur during the rainy season or transmit year-round without a well-defined season. We assessed the role of specific humidity and other local climatic variables on influenza virus seasonality by modeling epidemiological and climatic information from 78 study sites sampled globally. We substantiated that there are two types of environmental conditions associated with seasonal influenza epidemics: “cold-dry” and “humid-rainy”. For sites where monthly average specific humidity or temperature decreases below thresholds of approximately 11–12 g/kg and 18–21°C during the year, influenza activity peaks during the cold-dry season (i.e., winter) when specific humidity and temperature are at minimal levels. For sites where specific humidity and temperature do not decrease below these thresholds, seasonal influenza activity is more likely to peak in months when average precipitation totals are maximal and greater than 150 mm per month. These findings provide a simple climate-based model rooted in empirical data that accounts for the diversity of seasonal influenza patterns observed across temperate, subtropical and tropical climates.