The impact of seasonal and year-round transmission regimes on the evolution of influenza A virus

Punctuated antigenic change is believed to be a key element in the evolution of influenza A; clusters of antigenically similar strains predominate worldwide for several years until an antigenically distant mutant emerges and instigates a selective sweep. It is thought that a region of East-Southeast Asia with year-round transmission acts as a source of antigenic diversity for influenza A and seasonal epidemics in temperate regions make little contribution to antigenic evolution. We use a mathematical model to examine how different transmission regimes affect the evolutionary dynamics of influenza over the lifespan of an antigenic cluster. Our model indicates that, in non-seasonal regions, mutants that cause significant outbreaks appear before the peak of the wild-type epidemic. A relatively large proportion of these mutants spread globally. In seasonal regions, mutants that cause significant local outbreaks appear each year before the seasonal peak of the wild-type epidemic, but only a small proportion spread globally. The potential for global spread is strongly influenced by the intensity of non-seasonal circulation and coupling between non-seasonal and seasonal regions. Results are similar if mutations are neutral, or confer a weak to moderate antigenic advantage. However, there is a threshold antigenic advantage, depending on the non-seasonal transmission intensity, beyond which mutants can escape herd immunity in the non-seasonal region and there is a global explosion in diversity. We conclude that non-seasonal transmission regions are fundamental to the generation and maintenance of influenza diversity owing to their epidemiology. More extensive sampling of viral diversity in such regions could facilitate earlier identification of antigenically novel strains and extend the critical window for vaccine development.     

Multi-Dimensional Measurement of Antibody-Mediated Heterosubtypic Immunity to Influenza

The human immune response to influenza vaccination depends in part on preexisting cross-reactive (heterosubtypic) immunity from previous infection by, and/or vaccination with, influenza strains that share antigenic determinants with the vaccine strains. However, current methods for assessing heterosubtypic antibody responses against influenza, including the hemagglutination-inhibition (HAI) assay and ELISA, are time and labor intensive, and require moderate amounts of serum and reagents. To address these issues we have developed a fluorescent multiplex assay, mPlex-Flu, that rapidly and simultaneously measures strain specific IgG, IgA, and IgM antibodies against influenza hemagglutinin (HA) from multiple viral strains. We cloned, expressed and purified HA proteins from 12 influenza strains, and coupled them to multiplex beads. Assay validation showed that minimal sample volumes (<5 μl of serum) were needed, and the assay had a linear response over a four Log₁₀ range. The assay detected nanogram levels of anti-influenza specific antibodies, had high accuracy and reproducibility, with an average percentage coefficient of variation (%CV) of 9.06 for intra-assay and 12.94 for inter-assay variability. Pre- and post-intramuscular trivalent influenza vaccination levels of virus specific Ig were consistent with HAI titer and ELISA measurements. A significant advantage of the mPLEX-Flu assay over the HAI assay is the ability to perform antigenic cartography, determining the antigenic distances between influenza HA’s, without mathematical correction for HAI data issues. For validation we performed antigenic cartography on 14 different post-influenza infection ferret sera assayed against 12 different influenza HA’s. Results were in good agreement with a phylogenetic tree generated from hierarchical clustering of the genomic HA sequences. This is the first report of the use of a multiplex method for antigenic cartography using ferret sera. Overall, the mPlex-Flu assay provides a powerful tool to rapidly assess the influenza antibody repertoire in large populations and to study heterosubtypic immunity induced by influenza vaccination.     

Influenza emergence in the face of evolutionary constraints

Different influenza subtypes can evolve at very different rates, but the causes are not well understood. In this paper, we explore whether differences in transmissibility between subtypes can play a role if there are fitness constraints on antigenic evolution. We investigate the problem using a mathematical model that separates the interaction of strains through cross-immunity from the process of emergence for new antigenic variants. Evolutionary constraints are also included with antigenic mutation incurring a fitness cost. We show that the transmissibility of a strain can become disproportionately important in dictating the rate of antigenic drift: strains that spread only slightly more easily can have a much higher rate of emergence. Further, we see that the effect continues when vaccination is considered; a small increase in the rate of transmission can make it much harder to control the frequency at which new strains emerge. Our results not only highlight the importance of considering both transmission and fitness constraints when modelling influenza evolution, but may also help in understanding the differences between the emergence of H1N1 and H3N2 subtypes.     

Pretreatment of outer membrane vesicle and subsequent infection with influenza virus induces a long-lasting adaptive immune response against broad subtypes of influenza virus

Influenza is an acute respiratory disease and a global health problem. Although influenza vaccines are commercially available, frequent antigenic changes in hemagglutinin might render them less effective or unavailable. We previously reported that modified outer membrane vesicle (fmOMV) provided immediate and robust protective immunity against various subtypes of influenza virus. However, the effect was transient because it was innate immunity-dependent. In this study, we investigated the effects of consecutive administration of fmOMV and influenza virus on the adaptive immune response and long-term protective immunity against influenza virus. When the mice were pretreated with fmOMV and subsequently infected with influenza virus, strong influenza-specific antibody and T cell responses were induced in both systemic and lung mucosal compartments without pathogenic symptoms. Upon the secondary viral challenge at week 4, the mice given fmOMV and influenza virus exhibited almost complete protection against homologous and heterologous viral challenge. More importantly, this strong protective immunity lasted up to 18 weeks after the first infection. These results show that pretreatment with fmOMV and subsequent infection with influenza virus efficiently induces broad and long-lasting protective immunity against various virus subtypes, suggesting a novel antiviral strategy against newly-emerging viral diseases without suitable vaccines or therapeutics.     

Perforin and Fas cytolytic pathways coordinately shape the selection and diversity of CD8+-T-cell escape variants of influenza virus

Antigenic variation is a viral strategy exploited to promote survival in the face of the host immune response and represents a major challenge for efficient vaccine development. Influenza viruses are pathogens with high transmissibility and mutation rates, enabling viral escape from immunity induced by prior infection or vaccination. Intense selection from neutralizing antibody drives antigenic changes in the surface glycoproteins, resulting in emergence of new strains able to reinfect hosts immune to previously circulating viruses. CD8+ cytotoxic T cells (CTLs) also provide protective immunity from influenza virus infection and may contribute to the antigenic evolution of influenza viruses. Utilizing mice transgenic for an influenza virus NP366-374 peptide-specific T-cell receptor, we demonstrated that the respiratory tract is a suitable site for generation of escape variants of influenza virus selected by CTL in vivo. In this report the contributions of the perforin and Fas pathways utilized by influenza virus-specific CTLs in viral clearance and selection of CTL escape variants have been evaluated. While transgenic CTLs deficient in either perforin- or Fas-mediated pathways are efficient in initial pulmonary viral control, variant virus emergence was observed in all the mice studied, although the spectrum of viral CTL escape variants selected varied profoundly. Thus, a less-restricted repertoire of escape variants was observed in mice with an intact perforin cytotoxic pathway compared with a limited variant diversity in perforin pathway-deficient mice, although maximal variant diversity was observed in mice having both Fas and perforin pathways intact. We conclude that selection of viral CTL escape variants reflects coordinate action between the tightly controlled perforin/granzyme pathway and the more promiscuous Fas/FasL pathway.     

A computational framework for influenza antigenic cartography

Influenza viruses have been responsible for large losses of lives around the world and continue to present a great public health challenge. Antigenic characterization based on hemagglutination inhibition (HI) assay is one of the routine procedures for influenza vaccine strain selection. However, HI assay is only a crude experiment reflecting the antigenic correlations among testing antigens (viruses) and reference antisera (antibodies). Moreover, antigenic characterization is usually based on more than one HI dataset. The combination of multiple datasets results in an incomplete HI matrix with many unobserved entries. This paper proposes a new computational framework for constructing an influenza antigenic cartography from this incomplete matrix, which we refer to as Matrix Completion-Multidimensional Scaling (MC-MDS). In this approach, we first reconstruct the HI matrices with viruses and antibodies using low-rank matrix completion, and then generate the two-dimensional antigenic cartography using multidimensional scaling. Moreover, for influenza HI tables with herd immunity effect (such as those from Human influenza viruses), we propose a temporal model to reduce the inherent temporal bias of HI tables caused by herd immunity. By applying our method in HI datasets containing H3N2 influenza A viruses isolated from 1968 to 2003, we identified eleven clusters of antigenic variants, representing all major antigenic drift events in these 36 years. Our results showed that both the completed HI matrix and the antigenic cartography obtained via MC-MDS are useful in identifying influenza antigenic variants and thus can be used to facilitate influenza vaccine strain selection. The webserver is available at http://sysbio.cvm.msstate.edu/AntigenMap.     

Heterogeneity in antibody range and the antigenic drift of influenza A viruses

In this paper we explore the consequences of a heterogeneous immune response in individuals on the evolution of a rapidly mutating virus. We show that several features of the incidence and phylogenetic patterns typical of influenza A may be understood in this framework. In our model, limited diversity and rapid drift of the circulating viral strains result from the interplay of two interacting subpopulations with different types of immune response, narrow or broad, upon infection. The subpopulation with the narrow immune response acts as a reservoir where consecutive mutations escape immunity and can persist. Strains with a number of accumulated mutations escape immunity in the other subpopulation as well, causing larger epidemic peaks in the whole population, and reducing strain diversity. Overall, our model produces a modulation of epidemic peak heights and patterns of antigenic drift consistent with reported observations, suggesting an underlying mechanism for the evolutionary epidemiology of influenza, in particular, and other infectious diseases, more generally.     

A dimensionless number for understanding the evolutionary dynamics of antigenically variable RNA viruses

Antigenically variable RNA viruses are significant contributors to the burden of infectious disease worldwide. One reason for their ubiquity is their ability to escape herd immunity through rapid antigenic evolution and thereby to reinfect previously infected hosts. However, the ways in which these viruses evolve antigenically are highly diverse. Some have only limited diversity in the long-run, with every emergence of a new antigenic variant coupled with a replacement of the older variant. Other viruses rapidly accumulate antigenic diversity over time. Others still exhibit dynamics that can be considered evolutionary intermediates between these two extremes. Here, we present a theoretical framework that aims to understand these differences in evolutionary patterns by considering a virus's epidemiological dynamics in a given host population. Our framework, based on a dimensionless number, probabilistically anticipates patterns of viral antigenic diversification and thereby quantifies a virus's evolutionary potential. It is therefore similar in spirit to the basic reproduction number, the well-known dimensionless number which quantifies a pathogen's reproductive potential. We further outline how our theoretical framework can be applied to empirical viral systems, using influenza A/H3N2 as a case study. We end with predictions of our framework and work that remains to be done to further integrate viral evolutionary dynamics with disease ecology.     

The evolution of human influenza viruses.

The evolution of influenza viruses results in (i) recurrent annual epidemics of disease that are caused by progressive antigenic drift of influenza A and B viruses due to the mutability of the RNA genome and (ii) infrequent but severe pandemics caused by the emergence of novel influenza A subtypes to which the population has little immunity. The latter characteristic is a consequence of the wide antigenic diversity and peculiar host range of influenza A viruses and the ability of their segmented RNA genomes to undergo frequent genetic reassortment (recombination) during mixed infections. Contrasting features of the evolution of recently circulating influenza AH1N1, AH3N2 and B viruses include the rapid drift of AH3N2 viruses as a single lineage, the slow replacement of successive antigenic variants of AH1N1 viruses and the co-circulation over some 25 years of antigenically and genetically distinct lineages of influenza B viruses. Constant monitoring of changes in the circulating viruses is important for maintaining the efficacy of influenza vaccines in combating disease.     

Epidemic dynamics and antigenic evolution in a single season of influenza A

We use a mathematical model to study the evolution of influenza A during the epidemic dynamics of a single season. Classifying strains by their distance from the epidemic-originating strain, we show that neutral mutation yields a constant rate of antigenic evolution, even in the presence of epidemic dynamics. We introduce host immunity and viral immune escape to construct a non-neutral model. Our population dynamics can then be framed naturally in the context of population genetics, and we show that departure from neutrality is governed by the covariance between a strain's fitness and its distance from the original epidemic strain. We quantify the amount of antigenic evolution that takes place in excess of what is expected under neutrality and find that this excess amount is largest under strong host immunity and long epidemics.     

Antigenic and genetic evolution of swine influenza A (H3N2) viruses in Europe

In the early 1970s, a human influenza A/Port Chalmers/1/73 (H3N2)-like virus colonized the European swine population. Analyses of swine influenza A (H3N2) viruses isolated in The Netherlands and Belgium revealed that in the early 1990s, antigenic drift had occurred, away from A/Port Chalmers/1/73, the strain commonly used in influenza vaccines for pigs. Here we show that Italian swine influenza A (H3N2) viruses displayed antigenic and genetic changes similar to those observed in Northern European viruses in the same period. We used antigenic cartography methods for quantitative analyses of the antigenic evolution of European swine H3N2 viruses and observed a clustered virus evolution as seen for human viruses. Although the antigenic drift of swine and human H3N2 viruses has followed distinct evolutionary paths, potential cluster-differentiating amino acid substitutions in the influenza virus surface protein hemagglutinin (HA) were in part the same. The antigenic evolution of swine viruses occurred at a rate approximately six times slower than the rate in human viruses, even though the rates of genetic evolution of the HA at the nucleotide and amino acid level were similar for human and swine H3N2 viruses. Continuous monitoring of antigenic changes is recommended to give a first indication as to whether vaccine strains may need updating. Our data suggest that humoral immunity in the population plays a smaller role in the evolutionary selection processes of swine H3N2 viruses than in human H3N2 viruses.     

The Roles of Competition and Mutation in Shaping Antigenic and Genetic Diversity in Influenza

Influenza A (H3N2) offers a well-studied, yet not fully understood, disease in terms of the interactions between pathogen population dynamics, epidemiology and genetics. A major open question is why the virus population is globally dominated by a single and very recently diverged (2–8 years) lineage. Classically, this has been modeled by limiting the generation of new successful antigenic variants, such that only a small subset of progeny acquire the necessary mutations to evade host immunity. An alternative approach was recently suggested by Recker et al. in which a limited number of antigenic variants are continuously generated, but most of these are suppressed by pre-existing host population immunity. Here we develop a framework spanning the regimes described above to explore the impact of rates of mutation and levels of competition on phylodynamic patterns. We find that the evolutionary dynamics of the subtype H3N2 influenza is most easily generated within this framework when it is mutation limited as well as being under strong immune selection at a number of epitope regions of limited diversity.     

The evolution of epidemic influenza

Recent developments in complete-genome sequencing, antigenic mapping and epidemiological modelling are greatly improving our knowledge of the evolution of human influenza virus at the epidemiological scale. In particular, recent studies have revealed a more complex relationship between antigenic evolution, natural selection and reassortment than previously realized. Despite these advances, there is much that remains to be understood about the epidemiology of influenza virus, particularly the processes that determine the virus's strong seasonality. We argue that a complete understanding of the evolutionary biology of this important human pathogen will require a genomic view of genetic diversity, including the acquisition of polymorphism data from within individual hosts and from geographical regions, particularly the tropics, which have been poorly surveyed to date.     

The Role of Social Contacts and Original Antigenic Sin in Shaping the Age Pattern of Immunity to Seasonal Influenza

Recent serological studies of seasonal influenza A in humans suggest a striking characteristic profile of immunity against age, which holds across different countries and against different subtypes of influenza. For both H1N1 and H3N2, the proportion of the population seropositive to recently circulated strains peaks in school-age children, reaches a minimum between ages 35–65, then rises again in the older ages. This pattern is little understood. Variable mixing between different age classes can have a profound effect on disease dynamics, and is hence the obvious candidate explanation for the profile, but using a mathematical model of multiple influenza strains, we see that age dependent transmission based on mixing data from social contact surveys cannot on its own explain the observed pattern. Instead, the number of seropositive individuals in a population may be a consequence of ‘original antigenic sin’; if the first infection of a lifetime dominates subsequent immune responses, we demonstrate that it is possible to reproduce the observed relationship between age and seroprevalence. We propose a candidate mechanism for this relationship, by which original antigenic sin, along with antigenic drift and vaccination, results in the age profile of immunity seen in empirical studies.     

Phylodynamic Inference and Model Assessment with Approximate Bayesian Computation: Influenza as a Case Study

A key priority in infectious disease research is to understand the ecological and evolutionary drivers of viral diseases from data on disease incidence as well as viral genetic and antigenic variation. We propose using a simulation-based, Bayesian method known as Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) to fit and assess phylodynamic models that simulate pathogen evolution and ecology against summaries of these data. We illustrate the versatility of the method by analyzing two spatial models describing the phylodynamics of interpandemic human influenza virus subtype A(H3N2). The first model captures antigenic drift phenomenologically with continuously waning immunity, and the second epochal evolution model describes the replacement of major, relatively long-lived antigenic clusters. Combining features of long-term surveillance data from the Netherlands with features of influenza A (H3N2) hemagglutinin gene sequences sampled in northern Europe, key phylodynamic parameters can be estimated with ABC. Goodness-of-fit analyses reveal that the irregularity in interannual incidence and H3N2''s ladder-like hemagglutinin phylogeny are quantitatively only reproduced under the epochal evolution model within a spatial context. However, the concomitant incidence dynamics result in a very large reproductive number and are not consistent with empirical estimates of H3N2''s population level attack rate. These results demonstrate that the interactions between the evolutionary and ecological processes impose multiple quantitative constraints on the phylodynamic trajectories of influenza A(H3N2), so that sequence and surveillance data can be used synergistically. ABC, one of several data synthesis approaches, can easily interface a broad class of phylodynamic models with various types of data but requires careful calibration of the summaries and tolerance parameters.     

Immunity to seasonal and pandemic influenza A viruses

The introduction of a new influenza strain into human circulation leads to rapid global spread. This review summarizes innate and adaptive immunity to influenza viruses, with an emphasis on T-cell responses that provide cross-protection between distinct subtypes and strains. We discuss antigenic variation within T-cell immunogenic peptides and our understanding of pre-existing immunity towards the pandemic A(H1N1) 2009 strain.     

The antigenic evolution of influenza: drift or thrift?

It is commonly assumed that antibody responses against the influenza virus are polarized in the following manner: strong antibody responses are directed at highly variable antigenic epitopes, which consequently undergo ‘antigenic drift’, while weak antibody responses develop against conserved epitopes. As the highly variable epitopes are in a constant state of flux, current antibody-based vaccine strategies are focused on the conserved epitopes in the expectation that they will provide some level of clinical protection after appropriate boosting. Here, we use a theoretical model to suggest the existence of epitopes of low variability, which elicit a high degree of both clinical and transmission-blocking immunity. We show that several epidemiological features of influenza and its serological and molecular profiles are consistent with this model of ‘antigenic thrift’, and that identifying the protective epitopes of low variability predicted by this model could offer a more viable alternative to regularly update the influenza vaccine than exploiting responses to weakly immunogenic conserved regions.     

Barriers to antigenic escape by pathogens: trade-off between reproductive rate and antigenic mutability

Background  

A single measles vaccination provides lifelong protection. No antigenic variants that escape immunity have been observed. By contrast, influenza continually evolves new antigenic variants, and the vaccine has to be updated frequently with new strains. Both measles and influenza are RNA viruses with high mutation rates, so the mutation rate alone cannot explain the differences in antigenic variability.     

A deterministic model for influenza infection with multiple strains and antigenic drift

We describe a multiple strain Susceptible Infected Recovered deterministic model for the spread of an influenza subtype within a population. The model incorporates appearance of new strains due to antigenic drift, and partial immunity to reinfection with related circulating strains. It also includes optional seasonal forcing of the transmission rate of the virus, which allows for comparison between temperate zones and the tropics. Our model is capable of reproducing observed qualitative patterns such as the overall annual outbreaks in the temperate region, a reduced magnitude and an increased frequency of outbreaks in the tropics, and the herald wave phenomenon. Our approach to modelling antigenic drift is novel and further modifications of this model may help improve the understanding of complex influenza dynamics.     

Inference of genotype-phenotype relationships in the antigenic evolution of human influenza A (H3N2) viruses

Distinguishing mutations that determine an organism's phenotype from (near-) neutral 'hitchhikers' is a fundamental challenge in genome research, and is relevant for numerous medical and biotechnological applications. For human influenza viruses, recognizing changes in the antigenic phenotype and a strains' capability to evade pre-existing host immunity is important for the production of efficient vaccines. We have developed a method for inferring 'antigenic trees' for the major viral surface protein hemagglutinin. In the antigenic tree, antigenic weights are assigned to all tree branches, which allows us to resolve the antigenic impact of the associated amino acid changes. Our technique predicted antigenic distances with comparable accuracy to antigenic cartography. Additionally, it identified both known and novel sites, and amino acid changes with antigenic impact in the evolution of influenza A (H3N2) viruses from 1968 to 2003. The technique can also be applied for inference of 'phenotype trees' and genotype-phenotype relationships from other types of pairwise phenotype distances.