Aromatase gene polymorphisms are associated with survival among patients with cardiovascular disease in a sex-specific manner

Introduction

CYP19A1 encodes aromatase, the enzyme responsible for the conversion of androgens to estrogens, and may play a role in variation in outcomes among men and women with cardiovascular disease. We sought to examine genetic variation in CYP19A1 for its potential role in sex differences in cardiovascular disease outcomes.

Methods

Caucasian individuals from two independent populations were assessed: 1) a prospective cohort of patients with acute coronary syndromes with 3-year mortality follow-up (n = 568) and 2) a nested case-control study from a randomized, controlled trial of hypertension patients with stable coronary disease in which the primary outcome was death, nonfatal myocardial infarction (MI) or nonfatal stroke (n = 619). Six CYP19A1 SNPs were genotyped (-81371 C>T, -45965 G>C, M201T, R264C, 80 A>G, and +32226 G>A). The sex*genotype interaction term was assessed for the primary outcome and compared by genotype in men and women when a significant interaction term was identified.

Results

We identified a significant interaction between -81371 C>T and sex (p = 0.025) in the ACS population. The variant allele was associated with a 78% increase in mortality in men (HR 1.78, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.08-2.94) and a nonsignificant 42% decrease in mortality among women (HR 0.58, 95% CI 0.22-1.54). We identified a similar association in the hypertensive CAD group, the -81371 C>T*sex interaction term was p<0.0001, with an associated 65% increase in death, MI, or stroke (HR 1.65, 95% CI 1.00-2.73) in men and a 69% decrease (HR 0.31, 95% CI 0.16-0.6) in women.

Conclusions

Using two independent populations, this study is the first to document a significant interaction between CYP19A1 genotype and sex on cardiovascular outcomes. These findings could illuminate potential mechanisms of sex differences in cardiovascular disease outcomes.     

Alcohol consumption and ankle-to-brachial index: results from the Cardiovascular Risk Survey

Background and Methodology

A low ankle-to-brachial index (ABI) is a strong correlate of cardiovascular disease and subsequent mortality. The relationship between ABI and alcohol consumption remains unclear. Data are from the Cardiovascular Risk Survey (CRS), a multiple-ethnic, community-based, cross-sectional study of 14 618 Chinese people (5 757 Hans, 4 767 Uygurs, and 4 094 Kazakhs) aged 35 years and over at baseline from Oct. 2007 to March 2010. The relationship between alcohol intake and ABI was determined by use of analysis of covariance and multivariable regressions.

Principal Findings

In men, alcohol consumption was significantly associated with ABI (P<0.001). After adjusted for the confounding factors, such as age, sex, ethnicity, body mass index, smoking, work stress, diabetes, and fasting blood glucose, the difference remained significant (P<0.001); either the unadjusted or multivariate-adjusted odds ratio (OR) for peripheral artery disease (PAD) was significantly higher in men who consumed >60.0 g/d [OR  = 3.857, (95% CI: 2.555–5.824); OR = 2.797, (95% CI: 1.106–3.129); OR = 2.878, (95% CI: 1.215–4.018); respectively] and was significantly lower in men who consumed 20.1–40.0 g/d [OR  = 0.330, (95% CI: 0.181–0.599); OR = 0.484, (95% CI: 0.065–0.894); OR = 0.478, (95% CI: 0.243–1.534); respectively] and 40.1–60.0 g/d [OR  = 0.306, (95% CI: 0.096–0.969); OR = 0.267, (95% CI: 0.087–0.886); OR = 0.203, (95% CI: 0.113–0.754); respectively] compared with never drinking, respectively (all P<0.01). Neither in unadjusted nor in multivariate-adjusted model was the association between ABI and alcohol consumption significant (all P>0.05) in women. Similarly, PAD was not correlated with alcohol intake in women (all P>0.05).

Conclusions/Significance

Our results indicated that in Chinese men, alcohol consumption was associated with peripheral artery disease, and consumption of less than 60 g/d had an inverse association with peripheral atherosclerosis whereas consumption of 60 g/d or more had a positive association.     

Body adiposity in later life and the incidence of dementia: the health in men study

Objective

To determine if adiposity in later life increases dementia hazard.

Methods

Cohort study of 12,047 men aged 65–84 years living in Perth, Australia. Adiposity exposures were baseline body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC) and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR). We used the Western Australian Data Linkage System (WADLS) to establish the presence of new cases of dementia between 1996 and 2009 according to the International Classification of Diseases (ICD). Crude and adjusted hazard ratio (HR, 95% confidence interval, 95%CI) of dementia for each adiposity marker was calculated using Cox regression models. Other measured factors included age, marital status, education, alcohol use, smoking, diet, physical activity, and prevalent hypertension, diabetes, dyslipidaemia and cardiovascular disease.

Results

Compared with men with BMI<25, participants with BMI between 25–30 had lower adjusted HR of dementia (HR = 0.82, 95% CI = 0.70–0.95). The HR of dementia for men with BMI≥30 was comparable to men with BMI<25 (HR = 0.82, 95%CI = 0.67–1.01). Waist circumference showed no obvious association with dementia hazard. Men with WHR≥0.9 had lower adjusted HR of dementia than men with WHR <0.9 (HR = 0.82, 95%CI = 0.69–0.98). We found a “J” shape association between measures of obesity and the hazard of dementia, with the nadir of risk being in the overweight range of BMI and about 1 for WHR.

Conclusions

Higher adiposity is not associated with incident dementia in this Australian cohort of older men. Overweight men and those with WHR≥0.9 have lower hazard of dementia than men with normal weight and with WHR<0.9.     

Gender-specific associations of marine n-3 fatty acids and fish consumption with 10-year incidence of stroke

Background

There is some evidence that the association of fish and marine fatty acids with stroke risk differs between men and women. We investigated the gender-specific associations of habitual intake of the marine fatty acids eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) plus docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) and fish on incident stroke in a population-based study in the Netherlands.

Methods

We prospectively followed 20,069 men and women, aged 20–65 years, without cardiovascular diseases at baseline. Habitual diet was assessed with a validated 178-item food frequency questionnaire. Incidence of stroke was assessed through linkage with mortality and morbidity registers. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI).

Results

During 8–13 years of follow-up, 221 strokes occurred. In women, an inverse dose-response relation (P-trend = 0.02) was observed between EPA-DHA intake and incident stroke, with an HR of 0.49 (95% CI: 0.27–0.91) in the top quartile of EPA-DHA (median 225 mg/d) as compared to the bottom quartile (median 36 mg/d). In men, the HR (95%CI) for the top quartile of EPA-DHA intake was 0.87 (0.51–1.48) (P-trend = 0.36). Similar results were observed for fish consumption and stroke incidence.

Conclusion

A higher EPA-DHA and fish intake is related to a lower stroke risk in women, while for men an inverse association could not be demonstrated.     

Long-term exposure to ambient air pollution and mortality due to cardiovascular disease and cerebrovascular disease in Shenyang, China

Background

The relationship between ambient air pollution exposure and mortality of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in human is controversial, and there is little information about how exposures to ambient air pollution contribution to the mortality of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases among Chinese. The aim of the present study was to examine whether exposure to ambient-air pollution increases the risk for cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We conducted a retrospective cohort study among humans to examine the association between compound-air pollutants [particulate matter <10 µm in aerodynamic diameter (PM₁₀), sulfur dioxide (SO₂) and nitrogen dioxide (NO₂)] and mortality in Shenyang, China, using 12 years of data (1998–2009). Also, stratified analysis by sex, age, education, and income was conducted for cardiovascular and cerebrovascular mortality. The results showed that an increase of 10 µg/m³ in a year average concentration of PM₁₀ corresponds to 55% increase in the risk of a death cardiovascular disease (hazard ratio [HR], 1.55; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.51 to 1.60) and 49% increase in cerebrovascular disease (HR, 1.49; 95% CI, 1.45 to 1.53), respectively. The corresponding figures of adjusted HR (95%CI) for a 10 µg/m³ increase in NO₂ was 2.46 (2.31 to 2.63) for cardiovascular mortality and 2.44 (2.27 to 2.62) for cerebrovascular mortality, respectively. The effects of air pollution were more evident in female that in male, and nonsmokers and residents with BMI<18.5 were more vulnerable to outdoor air pollution.

Conclusion/Significance

Long-term exposure to ambient air pollution is associated with the death of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases among Chinese populations.     

Increased risk of fragility fractures among HIV infected compared to uninfected male veterans

Background

HIV infection has been associated with an increased risk of fragility fracture. We explored whether or not this increased risk persisted in HIV infected and uninfected men when controlling for traditional fragility fracture risk factors.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Cox regression models were used to assess the association of HIV infection with the risk for incident hip, vertebral, or upper arm fracture in male Veterans enrolled in the Veterans Aging Cohort Study Virtual Cohort (VACS-VC). We calculated adjusted hazard ratios comparing HIV status and controlling for demographics and other established risk factors. The sample consisted of 119,318 men, 33% of whom were HIV infected (34% aged 50 years or older at baseline, and 55% black or Hispanic). Median body mass index (BMI) was lower in HIV infected compared with uninfected men (25 vs. 28 kg/m²; p<0.0001). Unadjusted risk for fracture was higher among HIV infected compared with uninfected men [HR: 1.32 (95% CI: 1.20, 1.47)]. After adjusting for demographics, comorbid disease, smoking and alcohol abuse, HIV infection remained associated with an increased fracture risk [HR: 1.24 (95% CI: 1.11, 1.39)]. However, adjusting for BMI attenuated this association [HR: 1.10 (95% CI: 0.97, 1.25)]. The only HIV-specific factor associated with fragility fracture was current protease inhibitor use [HR: 1.41 (95% CI: 1.16, 1.70)].

Conclusions/Significance

HIV infection is associated with fragility fracture risk. This risk is attenuated by BMI.     

Renal function at hospital admission and mortality due to acute kidney injury after myocardial infarction

Background

The role of an impaired estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) at hospital admission in the outcome of acute kidney injury (AKI) after acute myocardial infarction (AMI) has been underreported. The aim of this study was to assess the influence of an admission eGFR<60 mL/min/1.73 m² on the incidence and early and late mortality of AMI-associated AKI.

Methods

A prospective study of 828 AMI patients was performed. AKI was defined as a serum creatinine increase of ≥50% from the time of admission (RIFLE criteria) in the first 7 days of hospitalization. Patients were divided into subgroups according to their eGFR upon hospital admission (MDRD formula, mL/min/1.73 m²) and the development of AKI: eGFR≥60 without AKI, eGFR<60 without AKI, eGFR≥60 with AKI and eGFR<60 with AKI.

Results

Overall, 14.6% of the patients in this study developed AKI. The admission eGFR had no impact on the incidence of AKI. However, the admission eGFR was associated with the outcome of AMI-associated AKI. The adjusted hazard ratios (AHR, Cox multivariate analysis) for 30-day mortality were 2.00 (95% CI 1.11–3.61) for eGFR<60 without AKI, 4.76 (95% CI 2.45–9.26) for eGFR≥60 with AKI and 6.27 (95% CI 3.20–12.29) for eGFR<60 with AKI. Only an admission eGFR of <60 with AKI was significantly associated with a 30-day to 1-year mortality hazard (AHR 3.05, 95% CI 1.50–6.19).

Conclusions

AKI development was associated with an increased early mortality hazard in AMI patients with either preserved or impaired admission eGFR. Only the association of impaired admission eGFR and AKI was associated with an increased hazard for late mortality among these patients.     

Raw and processed fruit and vegetable consumption and 10-year coronary heart disease incidence in a population-based cohort study in the Netherlands

Background

Prospective cohort studies have shown that high fruit and vegetable consumption is inversely associated with coronary heart disease (CHD). Whether food processing affects this association is unknown. Therefore, we quantified the association of fruit and vegetable consumption with 10-year CHD incidence in a population-based study in the Netherlands and the effect of processing on these associations.

Methods

Prospective population-based cohort study, including 20,069 men and women aged 20 to 65 years, enrolled between 1993 and 1997 and free of cardiovascular disease at baseline. Diet was assessed using a validated 178-item food frequency questionnaire. Hazard ratios (HR) were calculated for CHD incidence using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models.

Results

During a mean follow-up time of 10.5y, 245 incident cases of CHD were documented, which comprised 211 non-fatal acute myocardial infarctions and 34 fatal CHD events. The risk of CHD incidence was 34% lower for participants with a high intake of total fruit and vegetables (>475 g/d; HR: 0.66; 95% CI: 0.45–0.99) compared to participants with a low total fruit and vegetable consumption (≤241 g/d). Intake of raw fruit and vegetables (>262 g/d vs ≤92 g/d; HR: 0.70; 95% CI: 0.47–1.04) as well as processed fruit and vegetables (>234 g/d vs ≤113 g/d; HR: 0.79; 95% CI: 0.54–1.16) were inversely related with CHD incidence.

Conclusion

Higher consumption of fruit and vegetables, whether consumed raw or processed, may protect against CHD incidence.     

Survival with treated and well-controlled blood pressure: findings from a prospective cohort study

Aim

To compare survival and incident cardiovascular disease between normotensive, untreated hypertensive, treated and poorly-controlled hypertensive and treated and well-controlled hypertensive adults.

Methods and Results

Data from the British Regional Heart Study (men) and British Women''s Heart and Health Study (women) were used (N = 6476). Blood pressure and treatment were assessed at baseline (1998–2001) when participants were aged 60–79 years and participants were followed up for a median of 8 years. Date and cause of death were obtained from death certificates and non-fatal cardiovascular disease events were obtained from repeat detailed medical record reviews. Of the whole cohort 52% of women and 49% of men had untreated hypertension and a further 22% and 18%, respectively, had poorly treated hypertension. Just 3% of women and 4% of men had treated and well controlled hypertension and 23% and 29%, respectively, were normotensive. Compared to normotensive individuals, incident cardiovascular disease (fatal and non-fatal) was increased in those with poorly-controlled hypertension (Hazard Ratio (HR): 1.88; 95%CI: 1.53, 2.30), those with untreated hypertension (HR 1.46; 95%CI 1.22, 1.75) and those who were well-controlled hypertension (HR 1.38; 95%CI 0.94, 2.03). Adjustment for baseline differences in mean blood pressure between the groups resulted in attenuation of the increased risk in the poorly-controlled (1.52 (1.18, 1.97) and untreated groups (1.21 (0.97, 1.52), but did not change the association in the well-controlled group. All-cause mortality was also increased in all three hypertension groups but estimates were imprecise with wide confidence intervals.

Conclusions

Half of women and men aged 60–79 in Britain had untreated hypertension and only a very small proportion of those with diagnosed and treated hypertension were well controlled. Those with hypertension, irrespective of whether this was treated and controlled or not, were at greater risk of future cardiovascular disease than those who are normotensive.     

Predictors of death among patients who completed tuberculosis treatment: a population-based cohort study

Background

Mortality among patients who complete tuberculosis (TB) treatment is still high among vulnerable populations. The objective of the study was to identify the probability of death and its predictive factors in a cohort of successfully treated TB patients.

Methods

A population-based retrospective longitudinal study was performed in Barcelona, Spain. All patients who successfully completed TB treatment with culture-confirmation and available drug susceptibility testing between 1995–1997 were retrospectively followed-up until December 31, 2005 by the Barcelona TB Control Program. Socio-demographic, clinical, microbiological and treatment variables were examined. Mortality, TB Program and AIDS registries were reviewed. Kaplan-Meier and a Cox regression methods with time-dependent covariates were used for the survival analysis, calculating the hazard ratio (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI).

Results

Among the 762 included patients, the median age was 36 years, 520 (68.2%) were male, 178 (23.4%) HIV-infected, and 208 (27.3%) were alcohol abusers. Of the 134 (17.6%) injecting drug users (IDU), 123 (91.8%) were HIV-infected. A total of 30 (3.9%) recurrences and 173 deaths (22.7%) occurred (mortality rate: 3.4/100 person-years of follow-up). The predictors of death were: age between 41–60 years old (HR: 3.5; CI:2.1–5.7), age greater than 60 years (HR: 14.6; CI:8.9–24), alcohol abuse (HR: 1.7; CI:1.2–2.4) and HIV-infected IDU (HR: 7.9; CI:4.7–13.3).

Conclusions

The mortality rate among TB patients who completed treatment is associated with vulnerable populations such as the elderly, alcohol abusers, and HIV-infected IDU. We therefore need to fight against poverty, and promote and develop interventions and social policies directed towards these populations to improve their survival.     

Health behaviours, socioeconomic status, and mortality: further analyses of the British Whitehall II and the French GAZEL prospective cohorts

Background

Differences in morbidity and mortality between socioeconomic groups constitute one of the most consistent findings of epidemiologic research. However, research on social inequalities in health has yet to provide a comprehensive understanding of the mechanisms underlying this association. In recent analysis, we showed health behaviours, assessed longitudinally over the follow-up, to explain a major proportion of the association of socioeconomic status (SES) with mortality in the British Whitehall II study. However, whether health behaviours are equally important mediators of the SES-mortality association in different cultural settings remains unknown. In the present paper, we examine this issue in Whitehall II and another prospective European cohort, the French GAZEL study.

Methods and Findings

We included 9,771 participants from the Whitehall II study and 17,760 from the GAZEL study. Over the follow-up (mean 19.5 y in Whitehall II and 16.5 y in GAZEL), health behaviours (smoking, alcohol consumption, diet, and physical activity), were assessed longitudinally. Occupation (in the main analysis), education, and income (supplementary analysis) were the markers of SES. The socioeconomic gradient in smoking was greater (p<0.001) in Whitehall II (odds ratio [OR]  = 3.68, 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.11–4.36) than in GAZEL (OR  = 1.33, 95% CI 1.18–1.49); this was also true for unhealthy diet (OR  = 7.42, 95% CI 5.19–10.60 in Whitehall II and OR  = 1.31, 95% CI 1.15–1.49 in GAZEL, p<0.001). Socioeconomic differences in mortality were similar in the two cohorts, a hazard ratio of 1.62 (95% CI 1.28–2.05) in Whitehall II and 1.94 in GAZEL (95% CI 1.58–2.39) for lowest versus highest occupational position. Health behaviours attenuated the association of SES with mortality by 75% (95% CI 44%–149%) in Whitehall II but only by 19% (95% CI 13%–29%) in GAZEL. Analysis using education and income yielded similar results.

Conclusions

Health behaviours were strong predictors of mortality in both cohorts but their association with SES was remarkably different. Thus, health behaviours are likely to be major contributors of socioeconomic differences in health only in contexts with a marked social characterisation of health behaviours. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Marital status and mortality among middle age and elderly men and women in urban Shanghai

Background

Previous studies have suggested that marital status is associated with mortality, but few studies have been conducted in China where increasing aging population and divorce rates may have major impact on health and total mortality.

Methods

We examined the association of marital status with mortality using data from the Shanghai Women''s Health Study (1996–2009) and Shanghai Men''s Health Study (2002–2009), two population-based cohort studies of 74,942 women aged 40–70 years and 61,500 men aged 40–74 years at the study enrollment. Deaths were identified by biennial home visits and record linkage with the vital statistics registry. Marital status was categorized as married, never married, divorced, widowed, and all unmarried categories combined. Cox regression models were used to derive hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI).

Results

Unmarried and widowed women had an increased all-cause HR = 1.11, 95% CI: 1.03, 1.21 and HR = 1.10, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.20 respectively) and cancer (HR = 1.17, 95% CI: 1.04, 1.32 and HR = 1.18, 95% CI: 1.04, 1.34 respectively) mortality. Never married women had excess all-cause mortality (HR = 1.46, 95% CI: 1.03, 2.09). Divorce was associated with elevated cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality in women (HR = 1.47, 95% CI: 1.01, 2.13) and elevated all-cause mortality (HR = 2.45, 95% CI: 1.55, 3.86) in men. Amongst men, not being married was associated with excess all-cause (HR = 1.45, 95% CI: 1.12, 1.88) and CVD (HR = 1.65, 95% CI: 1.07, 2.54) mortality.

Conclusions

Marriage is associated with decreased all cause mortality and CVD mortality, in particular, among both Chinese men and women.     

Job strain and alcohol intake: a collaborative meta-analysis of individual-participant data from 140,000 men and women

Background

The relationship between work-related stress and alcohol intake is uncertain. In order to add to the thus far inconsistent evidence from relatively small studies, we conducted individual-participant meta-analyses of the association between work-related stress (operationalised as self-reported job strain) and alcohol intake.

Methodology and Principal Findings

We analysed cross-sectional data from 12 European studies (n = 142 140) and longitudinal data from four studies (n = 48 646). Job strain and alcohol intake were self-reported. Job strain was analysed as a binary variable (strain vs. no strain). Alcohol intake was harmonised into the following categories: none, moderate (women: 1–14, men: 1–21 drinks/week), intermediate (women: 15–20, men: 22–27 drinks/week) and heavy (women: >20, men: >27 drinks/week). Cross-sectional associations were modelled using logistic regression and the results pooled in random effects meta-analyses. Longitudinal associations were examined using mixed effects logistic and modified Poisson regression. Compared to moderate drinkers, non-drinkers and (random effects odds ratio (OR): 1.10, 95% CI: 1.05, 1.14) and heavy drinkers (OR: 1.12, 95% CI: 1.00, 1.26) had higher odds of job strain. Intermediate drinkers, on the other hand, had lower odds of job strain (OR: 0.92, 95% CI: 0.86, 0.99). We found no clear evidence for longitudinal associations between job strain and alcohol intake.

Conclusions

Our findings suggest that compared to moderate drinkers, non-drinkers and heavy drinkers are more likely and intermediate drinkers less likely to report work-related stress.     

Comparison of mortality following hospitalisation for isolated head injury in England and Wales, and Victoria, Australia

Background

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) remains a leading cause of death and disability. The National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) guidelines recommend transfer of severe TBI cases to neurosurgical centres, irrespective of the need for neurosurgery. This observational study investigated the risk-adjusted mortality of isolated TBI admissions in England/Wales, and Victoria, Australia, and the impact of neurosurgical centre management on outcomes.

Methods

Isolated TBI admissions (>15 years, July 2005–June 2006) were extracted from the hospital discharge datasets for both jurisdictions. Severe isolated TBI (AIS severity >3) admissions were provided by the Trauma Audit and Research Network (TARN) and Victorian State Trauma Registry (VSTR) for England/Wales, and Victoria, respectively. Multivariable logistic regression was used to compare risk-adjusted mortality between jurisdictions.

Findings

Mortality was 12% (749/6256) in England/Wales and 9% (91/1048) in Victoria for isolated TBI admissions. Adjusted odds of death in England/Wales were higher compared to Victoria overall (OR 2.0, 95% CI: 1.6, 2.5), and for cases <65 years (OR 2.36, 95% CI: 1.51, 3.69). For severe TBI, mortality was 23% (133/575) for TARN and 20% (68/346) for VSTR, with 72% of TARN and 86% of VSTR cases managed at a neurosurgical centre. The adjusted mortality odds for severe TBI cases in TARN were higher compared to the VSTR (OR 1.45, 95% CI: 0.96, 2.19), but particularly for cases <65 years (OR 2.04, 95% CI: 1.07, 3.90). Neurosurgical centre management modified the effect overall (OR 1.12, 95% CI: 0.73, 1.74) and for cases <65 years (OR 1.53, 95% CI: 0.77, 3.03).

Conclusion

The risk-adjusted odds of mortality for all isolated TBI admissions, and severe TBI cases, were higher in England/Wales when compared to Victoria. The lower percentage of cases managed at neurosurgical centres in England and Wales was an explanatory factor, supporting the changes made to the NICE guidelines.     

A large change in temperature between neighbouring days increases the risk of mortality

Background

Previous studies have found high temperatures increase the risk of mortality in summer. However, little is known about whether a sharp decrease or increase in temperature between neighbouring days has any effect on mortality.

Method

Poisson regression models were used to estimate the association between temperature change and mortality in summer in Brisbane, Australia during 1996–2004 and Los Angeles, United States during 1987–2000. The temperature change was calculated as the current day''s mean temperature minus the previous day''s mean.

Results

In Brisbane, a drop of more than 3°C in temperature between days was associated with relative risks (RRs) of 1.157 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.024, 1.307) for total non-external mortality (NEM), 1.186 (95%CI: 1.002, 1.405) for NEM in females, and 1.442 (95%CI: 1.099, 1.892) for people aged 65–74 years. An increase of more than 3°C was associated with RRs of 1.353 (95%CI: 1.033, 1.772) for cardiovascular mortality and 1.667 (95%CI: 1.146, 2.425) for people aged <65 years. In Los Angeles, only a drop of more than 3°C was significantly associated with RRs of 1.133 (95%CI: 1.053, 1.219) for total NEM, 1.252 (95%CI: 1.131, 1.386) for cardiovascular mortality, and 1.254 (95%CI: 1.135, 1.385) for people aged ≥75 years. In both cities, there were joint effects of temperature change and mean temperature on NEM.

Conclusion

A significant change in temperature of more than 3°C, whether positive or negative, has an adverse impact on mortality even after controlling for the current temperature.     

Prediction of emergent heart failure death by semi-quantitative triage risk stratification

Objectives

Generic triage risk assessments are widely used in the emergency department (ED), but have not been validated for prediction of short-term risk among patients with acute heart failure (HF). Our objective was to evaluate the Canadian Triage Acuity Scale (CTAS) for prediction of early death among HF patients.

Methods

We included patients presenting with HF to an ED in Ontario from Apr 2003 to Mar 2007. We used the National Ambulatory Care Reporting System and vital statistics databases to examine care and outcomes.

Results

Among 68,380 patients (76±12 years, 49.4% men), early mortality was stratified with death rates of 9.9%, 1.9%, 0.9%, and 0.5% at 1-day, and 17.2%, 5.9%, 3.8%, and 2.5% at 7-days, for CTAS 1, 2, 3, and 4–5, respectively. Compared to lower acuity (CTAS 4–5) patients, adjusted odds ratios (aOR) for 1-day death were 1.32 (95%CI; 0.93–1.88; p = 0.12) for CTAS 3, 2.41 (95%CI; 1.71–3.40; p<0.001) for CTAS 2, and highest for CTAS 1: 9.06 (95%CI; 6.28–13.06; p<0.001). Predictors of triage-critical (CTAS 1) status included oxygen saturation <90% (aOR 5.92, 95%CI; 3.09–11.81; p<0.001), respiratory rate >24 breaths/minute (aOR 1.96, 95%CI; 1.05–3.67; p = 0.034), and arrival by paramedic (aOR 3.52, 95%CI; 1.70–8.02; p = 0.001). While age/sex-adjusted CTAS score provided good discrimination for ED (c-statistic = 0.817) and 1-day (c-statistic = 0.724) death, mortality prediction was improved further after accounting for cardiac and non-cardiac co-morbidities (c-statistics 0.882 and 0.810, respectively; both p<0.001).

Conclusions

A semi-quantitative triage acuity scale assigned at ED presentation and based largely on respiratory factors predicted emergent death among HF patients.     

Socioeconomic status and incident type 2 diabetes mellitus: data from the Women's Health Study

Objectives

We prospectively examined whether socioeconomic status (SES) predicts incident type II diabetes (diabetes), a cardiovascular risk equivalent and burgeoning public health epidemic among women.

Methods

Participants include 23,992 women with Hb_A1c levels <6% and no CVD or diabetes at baseline followed from February 1993 to March 2007. SES was measured by education and income while diabetes was self-reported.

Results

Over 12.3 years of follow-up, 1,262 women developed diabetes. In age and race adjusted models, the relative risk of diabetes decreased with increasing education (<2 years of nursing, 2 to <4 years of nursing, bachelor''s degree, master''s degree, and doctorate: 1.0, 0.7 [95% Confidence Interval (CI), 0.6–0.8], 0.6 (95% CI, 0.5–0.7), 0.5 (95% CI, 0.4–0.6), 0.4 (95% CI, 0.3–0.5); p_trend<0.001). Adjustment for traditional and non-traditional cardiovascular risk factors attenuated this relationship (education: p_trend = 0.96). Similar associations were observed between income categories and diabetes.

Conclusion

Advanced education and increasing income were both inversely associated with incident diabetes even in this relatively well-educated cohort. This relationship was largely explained by behavioral factors, particularly body mass index.     

Rapid Assessment of Avoidable Blindness in India

Background

Rapid assessment of avoidable blindness provides valid estimates in a short period of time to assess the magnitude and causes of avoidable blindness. The study determined magnitude and causes of avoidable blindness in India in 2007 among the 50+ population.

Methods and Findings

Sixteen randomly selected districts where blindness surveys were undertaken 7 to 10 years earlier were identified for a follow up survey. Stratified cluster sampling was used and 25 clusters (20 rural and 5 urban) were randomly picked in each district.. After a random start, 100 individuals aged 50+ were enumerated and examined sequentially in each cluster. All those with presenting vision <6/18 were dilated and examined by an ophthalmologist. 42722 individuals aged > = 50 years were enumerated, and 94.7% examined. Based on presenting vision,, 4.4% (95% Confidence Interval[CI]: 4.1,4.8) were severely visually impaired (vision<6/60 to 3/60 in the better eye) and 3.6% (95% CI: 3.3,3.9) were blind (vision<3/60 in the better eye). Prevalence of low vision (<6/18 to 6/60 in the better eye) was 16.8% (95% CI: 16.0,17.5). Prevalence of blindness and severe visual impairment (<6/60 in the better eye) was higher among rural residents (8.2%; 95% CI: 7.9,8.6) compared to urban (7.1%; 95% CI: 5.0, 9.2), among females (9.2%; 95% CI: 8.6,9.8) compared to males (6.5%; 95% CI: 6.0,7.1) and people above 70 years (20.6%; 95% CI: 19.1,22.0) compared to people aged 50–54 years (1.3%; 95% CI: 1.1,1.6). Of all blindness, 88.2% was avoidable. of which 81.9% was due to cataract and 7.1% to uncorrected refractive errors/uncorrected aphakia.

Conclusions

Cataract and refractive errors are major causes of blindness and low vision and control strategies should prioritize them. Most blindness and low vision burden is avoidable.     

Incidence and predictors of immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome in a rural area of Mozambique

Background

There is limited data on the epidemiology of Immune Reconstitution Inflammatory Syndrome (IRIS) in rural sub-Saharan Africa. A prospective observational cohort study was conducted to assess the incidence, clinical characteristics, outcome and predictors of IRIS in rural Mozambique.

Methods

One hundred and thirty-six consecutive antiretroviral treatment (ART)-naïve HIV-1-infected patients initiating ART at the Manhiça district hospital were prospectively followed for development of IRIS over 16 months. Survival analysis by Cox regression was performed to identify pre-ART predictors of IRIS development.

Results

Thirty-six patients developed IRIS [26.5%, incidence rate 3.1 cases/100 persons-month of ART (95% CI 2.2–4.3)]. Median time to IRIS onset was 62 days from ART initiation (IQR 35.5–93.5). Twenty-five cases (69.4%) were “unmasking”, 10 (27.8%) were “paradoxical”, and 1 (2.8%) developed a paradoxical worsening followed by the unmasking of another condition. Systemic OI (OI-IRIS) accounted for 47% (17/36) of IRIS cases, predominantly of KS (8 cases) and TB (6 cases) IRIS. Mucocutaneous IRIS manifestations (MC-IRIS) accounted for 53% (19/36) of IRIS events, mostly tinea (9 cases) and herpes simplex infection (3 cases). Multivariate analysis identified two independent predictors of IRIS development: pre-ART CD4 count <50 cells/µl (HR 2.3, 95% CI 1.19–4.44, p = 0.01) and body mass index (BMI) <18.5 (HR 2.15, 95% CI 1.07–4.3, p = 0.03). The pre-cART proportion of activated T-cells, as well as the immunologic and virologic response to ART were not associated with IRIS development. All patients continued on ART, 7 (19.4%) required hospitalization and there were 3 deaths (8.3%) attributable to IRIS.

Conclusions

IRIS is common in patients initiating ART in rural Mozambique. Pre-ART CD4 counts and BMI can easily be assessed at ART initiation in rural sub-Saharan Africa to identify patients at high risk of IRIS, for whom close supervision is warranted.     

Initial presentations predict mortality in pulmonary tuberculosis patients--a prospective observational study

Background

Despite effective anti-TB treatments, tuberculosis remains a serious threat to public health and is associated with high mortality. Old age and multiple co-morbidities are known risk factors for death. The association of clinical presentations with mortality in pulmonary tuberculosis patients remains an issue of controversy.

Methods

This prospective observational study enrolled newly diagnosed, culture-proven pulmonary tuberculosis patients from five medical centers and one regional hospital, which were referral hospitals of TB patients. Radiographic findings and clinical symptoms were determined at the time of diagnosis. Patients who died for any reason during the course of anti-TB treatment were defined as mortality cases and death that occurred within 30 days of initiating treatment was defined as early mortality. Clinical factors associated with overall mortality and early mortality were investigated.

Results

A total of 992 patients were enrolled and 195 (19.7%) died. Nearly one-third (62/195, 31.8%) of the deaths occurred before or within 30 days of treatment initiation. Older age (RR = 1.04, 95%CI: 1.03–1.05), malignancy (RR = 2.42, 95%CI: 1.77–3.31), renal insufficiency (RR = 1.77, 95%CI: 1.12–2.80), presence of chronic cough (RR = 0.63, 95%CI: 0.47–0.84), fever (RR = 1.45, 95%CI: 1.09–1.94), and anorexia (RR = 1.49, 95%CI: 1.07–2.06) were independently associated with overall mortality. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis demonstrated significantly higher mortality in patients present with fever (p<0.001), anorexia (p = 0.005), and without chronic cough (p<0.001). Among patients of mortality, those with respiratory symptoms of chronic cough (RR = 0.56, 95%CI: 0.33–0.98) and dyspnea (HR = 0.51, 95%CI: 0.27–0.98) were less likely to experience early mortality. The radiological features were comparable between survivors and non-survivors.

Conclusions

In addition to demographic characteristics, clinical presentations including the presence of fever, anorexia, and the absence of chronic cough, were also independent predictors for on-treatment mortality in pulmonary tuberculosis patients.