Phanerozoic marine diversity: rock record modelling provides an independent test of large-scale trends

Sampling bias created by a heterogeneous rock record can seriously distort estimates of marine diversity and makes a direct reading of the fossil record unreliable. Here we compare two independent estimates of Phanerozoic marine diversity that explicitly take account of variation in sampling—a subsampling approach that standardizes for differences in fossil collection intensity, and a rock area modelling approach that takes account of differences in rock availability. Using the fossil records of North America and Western Europe, we demonstrate that a modelling approach applied to the combined data produces results that are significantly correlated with those derived from subsampling. This concordance between independent approaches argues strongly for the reality of the large-scale trends in diversity we identify from both approaches.     

How many dinosaur species were there? Fossil bias and true richness estimated using a Poisson sampling model

The fossil record is a rich source of information about biological diversity in the past. However, the fossil record is not only incomplete but has also inherent biases due to geological, physical, chemical and biological factors. Our knowledge of past life is also biased because of differences in academic and amateur interests and sampling efforts. As a result, not all individuals or species that lived in the past are equally likely to be discovered at any point in time or space. To reconstruct temporal dynamics of diversity using the fossil record, biased sampling must be explicitly taken into account. Here, we introduce an approach that uses the variation in the number of times each species is observed in the fossil record to estimate both sampling bias and true richness. We term our technique TRiPS (True Richness estimated using a Poisson Sampling model) and explore its robustness to violation of its assumptions via simulations. We then venture to estimate sampling bias and absolute species richness of dinosaurs in the geological stages of the Mesozoic. Using TRiPS, we estimate that 1936 (1543–2468) species of dinosaurs roamed the Earth during the Mesozoic. We also present improved estimates of species richness trajectories of the three major dinosaur clades: the sauropodomorphs, ornithischians and theropods, casting doubt on the Jurassic–Cretaceous extinction event and demonstrating that all dinosaur groups are subject to considerable sampling bias throughout the Mesozoic.     

Fossil ghost ranges are most common in some of the oldest and some of the youngest strata

Biologists routinely compare inferences about the order of evolutionary branching (phylogeny) with the order in which groups appear in the fossil record (stratigraphy). Where they conflict, ghost ranges are inferred: intervals of geological time where a fossil lineage should exist, but for which there is no direct evidence. The presence of very numerous and/or extensive ghost ranges is often believed to imply spurious phylogenies or a misleadingly patchy fossil record, or both. It has usually been assumed that the frequency of ghost ranges should increase with the age of rocks. Previous studies measuring ghost ranges for whole trees in just a small number of temporal bins have found no significant increase with antiquity. This study uses a much higher resolution approach to investigate the gappiness implied by 1,000 animal and plant cladograms over 77 series and stages of the Phanerozoic. It demonstrates that ghost ranges are indeed relatively common in some of the oldest strata. Surprisingly, however, ghost ranges are also relatively common in some of the youngest, fossil-rich rocks. This pattern results from the interplay between several complex factors and is not a simple function of the completeness of the fossil record. The Early Palaeozoic record is likely to be less organismically and stratigraphically complete, and its fossils -- many of which are invertebrates-may be more difficult to analyse cladistically. The Late Cenozoic is subject to the pull of the Recent, but this accounts only partially for the increased gappiness in the younger strata.     

The oldest records of photosynthesis

There is diverse, yet controversial fossil evidence for the existence of photosynthesis 3500 million years ago. Among the most persuasive evidence is the stromatolites described from low grade metasedimentary rocks in Western Australia and South Africa. Based on the understanding of the paleobiology of stromatolites and using pertinent fossil and Recent analogs, these Early Archean stromatolites suggest that phototrophs evolved by 3500 million years ago. The evidence allows further interpretation that cyanobacteria were involved. Besides stromatolites, microbial and chemical fossils are also known from the same rock units. Some microfossils morphologically resemble cyanobacteria and thus complement the adduced cyanobacterial involvement in stromatolite construction. If cyanobacteria had evolved by 3500 million years ago, this would indicate that nearly all prokaryotic phyla had already evolved and that prokaryotes diversified rapidly on the early Earth.     

Using ghost lineages to identify diversification events in the fossil record

Observed rises in taxic diversity could reflect bias of the fossil record or a genuine diversification. Here we outline a new method that attempts to differentiate between these two possible explanations. The method is based on the calculations of average ghost lineage duration through successive intervals of time. Biases due to variation in preservational conditions affect taxa independently from their position in the tree of life. A genuine radiation event will affect some parts of the tree of life more than others. During periods of rapid diversification, there will be a high proportion of new taxa showing short ghost lineages and therefore the average ghost lineage duration will drop as diversity rises, allowing us to distinguish such events from preservational bias during which ghost lineage duration remains unchanged. We test the method on Aptian-Maastrichtian (Cretaceous) ray-finned fish diversity. The result shows that a peak of diversity in the Cenomanian is associated with a drop in average ghost lineage duration, indicating that a genuine biological radiation occurred at that time.     

A cladistic analysis of the cornutes (stem chordates)

At the root of the calcichordate controversy is the problem of recognizing homologous similarity. Only when a criterion or set of criteria for hypothesizing homologies is established can the calcichordate theory be tested against its main rival—the Stylophoran theory—by applying the principle of parsimony. The criterion of topological similarity is applied to a three-laxon problem involving a mitrate, the crown-group Echinodermata and the crown-group Chordata. The mitrate shares more features with extant chordates than with extant echinoderms and the calcichordate theory is supported by a simple parsimony analysis. In a cladistic analysis of the cornutes, four monophyletic families are recognized (Cothurnocystidae, Scotiaecystidae, Phyllocystidae and Hanusiidae) and their interrelationships resolved using Hennig86 and the successive-weighting procedure of Farris. Because the known fossil record of cornutes and mitrates is very poor, the correlation between the cladogram produced for cornutes and their order of appearance in the geological record is weak. All of the cornute families must have originated in the Lower Cambrian at the latest.     

The recognition of ancestors

The recognition of ancestors is problematic using cladistic logic alone because monophyletic groups (clades) are defined by shared derived characters (synapomorphies) which their ancestors must have lacked. Nevertheless, ancestors possess three key attributes. They belong within a larger, paraphyletic group. They will be morphologically most similar to their immediate descendants, and they evolved before any and all of their descendants. Recognition of ancestors requires both morphological and stratigraphic data and, in practice, the task is to reduce the size of the paraphyletic group within which the ancestor must lie. All ancestor‐descendant relationships are phylogenetic hypotheses. Despite the legendary incompleteness of the fossil record, testing the validity of available data is far more difficult for character analysis than for stratigraphy.     

Sequences,stratigraphy and scenarios: what can we say about the fossil record of the earliest tetrapods?

Past research on the emergence of digit-bearing tetrapods has led to the widely accepted premise that this important evolutionary event occurred during the Late Devonian. The discovery of convincing digit-bearing tetrapod trackways of early Middle Devonian age in Poland has upset this orthodoxy, indicating that current scenarios which link the timing of the origin of digited tetrapods to specific events in Earth history are likely to be in error. Inspired by this find, we examine the fossil record of early digit-bearing tetrapods and their closest fish-like relatives from a statistical standpoint. We find that the Polish trackways force a substantial reconsideration of the nature of the early tetrapod record when only body fossils are considered. However, the effect is less drastic (and often not statistically significant) when other reliably dated trackways that were previously considered anachronistic are taken into account. Using two approaches, we find that 95 per cent credible and confidence intervals for the origin of digit-bearing tetrapods extend into the Early Devonian and beyond, spanning late Emsian to mid Ludlow. For biologically realistic diversity models, estimated genus-level preservation rates for Devonian digited tetrapods and their relatives range from 0.025 to 0.073 per lineage-million years, an order of magnitude lower than species-level rates for groups typically considered to have dense records. Available fossils of early digited tetrapods and their immediate relatives are adequate for documenting large-scale patterns of character acquisition associated with the origin of terrestriality, but low preservation rates coupled with clear geographical and stratigraphic sampling biases caution against building scenarios for the origin of digits and terrestrialization tied to the provenance of particular specimens or faunas.     

The high fidelity of the cetacean stranding record: insights into measuring diversity by integrating taphonomy and macroecology

Stranded cetaceans have long intrigued naturalists because their causation has escaped singular explanations. Regardless of cause, strandings also represent a sample of the living community, although their fidelity has rarely been quantified. Using commensurate stranding and sighting records compiled from archived datasets representing nearly every major ocean basin, I demonstrated that the cetacean stranding record faithfully reflects patterns of richness and relative abundance in living communities, especially for coastlines greater than 2000 km and latitudinal gradients greater than 4°. Live-dead fidelity metrics from seven different countries indicated that strandings were almost always richer than live surveys; richness also increased with coastline length. Most death assemblages recorded the same ranked relative abundance as living communities, although this correlation decreased in strength and significance at coastline lengths greater than 15,000 km, highlighting the importance of sampling diversity at regional scales. Rarefaction analyses indicated that sampling greater than 10 years generally enhanced the completeness of death assemblages, although protracted temporal sampling did not substitute for sampling over longer coastlines or broader latitudes. Overall, this global live-dead comparison demonstrated that strandings almost always provided better diversity information about extant cetacean communities than live surveys; such archives are therefore relevant for macroecological and palaeobiological studies of cetacean community change through time.