生态模型的灵敏度分析

灵敏度分析用于定性或定量地评价模型参数误差对模型结果产生的影响,是模型参数化过程和模型校正过程中的有用工具,具有重要的生态学意义．灵敏度分析包括局部灵敏度分析和全局灵敏度分析．局部灵敏度分析只检验单个参数的变化对模型结果的影响程度;全局灵敏度分析则检验多个参数的变化对模型运行结果总的影响,并分析每一个参数及其参数之间相互作用对模型结果的影响．目前,在对生态模型的灵敏度分析中,越来越倾向于使用全局灵敏度分析的方法．但国内仍多采用局部灵敏度分析方法,很少采用全局灵敏度分析方法．文中详细论述了局部灵敏分析和全局灵敏度分析的主要方法(一次变换法、多元回归法、Morris法、Sobol’法、傅里叶幅度灵敏度检验法和傅里叶幅度灵敏度检验扩展法),希望能为国内生态模型的发展提供一个比较完善的灵敏度分析方法库．结合国内外的灵敏度分析发展现状,指出联合灵敏度研究、灵敏度共性研究及空间直观景观模型的灵敏度分析将为生态模型灵敏度分析研究中的热点和难点．     

Modulation of skin sensitivity by dynamic and isometric exercise in man

The effect of dynamic cycle ergometer exercise and isometric leg exercise on skin sensitivity was studied in man. Exercise was performed at different loads. Cutaneous sensitivity to innocuous and noxious thermal stimuli was tested using a contact thermostimulator and sensitivity to tactile stimuli was tested using electrical stimuli. During isometric exercise a segmental (the exercising limb), but not a multisegmental, phasic decrease of cutaneous thermal sensitivity to innocuous stimuli was found. At the isometric forces used the effect on tactile and heat pain sensitivity was not significant. During dynamic exercise a multisegmental, load-dependent decrease of sensitivity in all tested sensory modalities was found and this attenuation disappeared gradually after the end of exercise. In contrast to isometric exercise, the decrease of sensitivity produced by dynamic exercise was most evident in tactile sensitivity. The size of the stimulus area (7.9 vs 11.8 cm2) did not have a significant effect on the magnitude of the exercise-induced decrease of cutaneous thermal sensitivity to innocuous stimuli. It was concluded that underlying the modulation of skin sensitivity by dynamic and isometric exercise were mechanisms that were different, at least to a small extent. Isometric exercise produced a segmental modulation of skin sensitivity due to central neuronal mechanisms, independent of exercise-induced stress. Exercise-induced stress could have caused the modulation of skin sensitivity by dynamic exercise.     

Comparisons of high, medium, and low feedback sensitivity for the control of heart-rate acceleration

Thirty-four student volunteers were randomly assigned to one of three feedback sensitivity conditions: high sensitivity, medium sensitivity, or low sensitivity. Each subject received four sessions of biofeedback training with instructions to accelerate heart rate. In each condition, analogue feedback was provided during heart-rate acceleration trials. In addition to heart rate, frontal EMG and digital skin temperature were also recorded. Results replicated and extended the findings of a previous study in that medium and low sensitivity feedback was found to be superior to high sensitivity feedback during the final training session. These results confirm previous findings that a high sensitivity feedback produces very poor control of heart-rate acceleration. These data were discussed in terms of motor skills theory and in terms of possible effects of feedback sensitivity upon the motivation of subjects.     

Adaptive changes in temperature sensitivity in humans under the conditions of cold, heat, and prolonged exercise

In humans adapted for a long time to various conditions—cold, heat, and physical exercise—differently directed changes in temperature sensitivity are observed. During long-term adaptation of humans to cold, a decrease in cold sensitivity is observed. Vice versa, in humans adapted to a hot climate, sensitivity to heat is decreased. Prolonged physical exercise does not change the sensitivity to heat but considerably increases the sensitivity to cold. Some mechanisms and the role of noradrenaline, the postganglionic neurotransmitter of the sympathetic nervous system, in the adaptive processes of a change in temperature sensitivity are considered.     

基于空间距离指数的中国西北干旱内陆河流域生态敏感性时空演变特征——以石羊河流域为例

生态敏感性是生态系统对自然环境变化和人类活动干扰的反映程度及生态环境问题发生难易程度和可能性大小的重要因素之一。以中国西北地区典型的干旱内陆河流域-石羊河流域为例,通过借鉴前人研究成果及实地调查研究,将石羊河流域生态敏感性分为生态风险敏感性、水土流失敏感性和生物多样性敏感性三个方面,并系统构建生态风险敏感性指数、水土流失敏感性指数和生物多样性敏感性指数三个定量评价指标,对石羊河流域综合生态敏感性进行研究。并通过格网编码、圈层分析,探讨近30年石羊河流域生态敏感性的时空变化。研究结果表明:(1)1987—2016年间石羊河流域生态敏感性总体上逐年降低,综合生态敏感性指数(Comprehensive ecological sensitivity index,CESI)值从1987年的1.143上升到2016年的1.287,反映出流域生态环境当前还是向着可持续发展的方向发展;(2)流域生态敏感性整体偏高,常年极度敏感区和常年重度敏感区占流域总面积的42.26%。此外,敏感性空间分异明显,流域上游及下游荒漠区敏感性相对稳定,中下游绿洲区敏感性波动变化较为频繁,且波动变化区占总面积的51.24%,这表明流域生态敏感性与人类活动及工农业生产有较为密切的关系;(3)目前流域生态敏感性整体趋于好转,但局部地区有恶化的趋势,敏感性波动降低的区域面积为11693.57km~2,占流域总面积的28.82%,敏感性波动升高的区域面积为9099.66km~2,占流域总面积的22.43%,这表明一方面在国家宏观政策的引导下,当地在生态环境保护方面做了大量工作,另一方面也表现出在全球生态环境逐渐恶化的大背景下,当地的生态环境治理工作仍然任重道远。     

基于空间距离指数的青藏高原生态敏感性综合评价及时空演变分析

生态敏感性是生态系统对外界压力的适应性及遭受破坏的恢复力,开展生态敏感性评价是识别区域生态环境问题的有效手段之一。根据青藏高原的区域特性和主要生态环境问题,在定量构建土地荒漠化敏感性、水土流失敏感性、滑坡灾害敏感性和冻融侵蚀敏感性的基础上,通过空间距离指数法对青藏高原生态敏感性进行综合评价,并采用空间自相关分析和生态敏感性变化模式分析,探讨其时空演变特征和保护管理区划。结果表明：（1）青藏高原综合生态敏感性由西北向东南递减,极度和重度敏感区主要集中在西北部和高大山脉区,不敏感区主要集中在东南部;（2）2000-2018年间青藏高原综合生态敏感性指数值从1.49上升到1.51,表明该区域生态敏感性逐步下降,生态环境改善明显;（3）青藏高原生态敏感性存在显著的空间正相关,低-低聚集网格数量波动上升,从2000年的7277增至2018年7357,表明青藏高原部分地区的生态环境仍存在着一定恶化的风险;（4）根据区域生态敏感性变化模式分析,将青藏高原划分为严格保护区、生态退化区、潜在治理区、生态改善区和综合发展区五个区域,并提出了相应保护与管理对策。研究结果可以为青藏高原生态保护和可持续发展提供参考,从而有效推动保护管理措施的制定。     

Prosimian sensory capacities

This paper reviews laboratory research on sensory capacities of prosimians. Most investigations to date have concentrated on visual and auditory sensitivity with relatively little attention directed toward olfactory and gustatory sensitivity. Diurnal prosimians have at least rudimentary color vision and appear deficient to anthropoids in other visual measures such as acuity. The most striking difference between prosimian and anthropoid auditory sensitivity is the increased sensitivity of the former group to high frequencies. No psychophysical data have been published on olfactory sensitivity of prosimians, but the relatively large olfactory areas in their brains and their propensity for scent marking strongly suggest that they have acute olfactory sensitivity. Most data on gustatory thresholds in prosimians does not permit sensitivity estimation since the data are joint functions of sensitivity as well as preferences.     

OGTT-derived measures of insulin sensitivity are confounded by factors other than insulin sensitivity itself

Insulin resistance is an important risk factor for diabetes and other diseases. It has been important to estimate insulin resistance in epidemiological and genetic studies involving significant number of individuals. Complex and invasive protocols are impractical. Therefore, insulin sensitivity indices based on the oral glucose-tolerance test (OGTT) have been introduced. The aim of the present study was to assess the accuracy with which OGTT-derived indices would reflect changes in insulin sensitivity in the face of changes in other factors, such as rate of glucose absorption and/or B-cell function. A computer model was employed to predict excursions of plasma glucose and insulin after a 75-g oral glucose load. The model was then used to predict changes in these excursions, which would be observed with altered insulin resistance, with alterations in beta-cell sensitivity to glucose and/or alterations in glucose absorption rates. Published indices of insulin sensitivity could then be calculated from the predicted curves, to ask whether changes in beta-cell function or glucose absorptions rates might be misinterpreted (using the indices) as changes in insulin sensitivity. The model accurately represented OGTT data for a normal glucose tolerant subject, closely matching published data. Imposed 50% reductions or increases in insulin sensitivity alone in the model were reflected in only small changes in OGTT-derived insulin sensitivity values. More important, imposed alterations in beta-cell sensitivity and glucose absorption without simulated changes in insulin sensitivity did change insulin sensitivity indices. These results indicate that caution is required for the interpretation of differences in OGTT-derived values of insulin sensitivity, because variation in factors other than insulin sensitivity per se appear to have the greatest effects on indices calculated from the OGTT alone.     

Effects of environment during growth on the sensitivity of leaf conductance to changes in humidity

Soybeans (Glycine max) and grain amaranth (Amaranthus hypochondriacus) were grown at a range of temperatures, carbon dioxide concentrations and light conditions in controlled environment chambers, and the response of leaf conductance to water vapour to changes in humidity was then measured under a standard set of conditions. The sensitivity of conductance was analysed in terms of (i) the absolute sensitivity of conductance to changes in leaf to air water vapour pressure difference (LAVPD), (ii) the sensitivity of conductance relative to the absolute value of conductance, and (iii) the slope of the relationship between conductance and an index incorporating assimilation rate, carbon dioxide concentration and relative humidity. The sensitivity of conductance varied substantially with growth conditions for all three analyses in both species. The growth temperature of 25 °C increased the sensitivity of conductance by all three measures compared with growth at 20 or 30 °C in amaranth, with little difference between 25 and 30 °C in soybean. Growth at elevated carbon dioxide decreased sensitivity in amaranth by all three measures, and decreased the absolute but not the relative sensitivity in soybean. Growth at reduced photon flux density and growth at high stand density reduced sensitivity in amaranth by all three measures. In soybean, growth at high stand density reduced sensitivity by all three measures, but growth at low photon flux density increased the relative sensitivity. The sensitivity of leaf conductance to changes in humidity varied by a factor of two or more with growth environment by all measures of sensitivity in both the C3 and the C4 species.     

Dynamics of x-ray-induced reversion in heterogeneous S. cerevisiae populations.

The survival and frequency of adenine and homoserine revertants after X-irradiation have been studied in starved and growing populations of haploid S. cerevisiae (strain 5483/1b). A growing population is heterogeneous to cell killing, and a mathematical model can be used to determine possible correlation between sensitivity to killing and sensitivity to mutation induction. The results indicate correlation between sensitivity to ade2-1 reversion and sensitivity to cell killing, whereas no such correlation was found between sensitivity to hom3-10 reversion and sensitivity to killing. The difference in the dynamics of homoserine and adenine reversions was reduced by adding caffeine to the post-irradiation media.     

Measurement of sensitivity to olfactory flavor: application in a study of aging and dentures

Olfaction involves a dual sensory process for perceiving odors orthonasally (through the nostrils) and retronasally (through the mouth). This investigation entailed developing a measure of sensitivity to an odor delivered in an orally sampled food (orange flavoring in a sucrose-sweetened gelatin) and examining sensitivity in the elderly. In experiment 1, olfactory flavor sensitivity was 49 times lower in elderly (n = 21) than in young (n = 28) subjects. In experiment 2, with 73 elderly women, higher olfactory flavor sensitivity correlated significantly with higher orthonasal perception (Connecticut Chemosensory Clinical Research Center test). Some women, however, exhibited low olfactory flavor sensitivity despite high orthonasal perception; none had high olfactory flavor sensitivity and low orthonasal perception. Those who wore complete or palatal covering dentures had lower olfactory flavor sensitivity than those who were dentate or wore dentures that did not cover the palate. Through multiple regression analysis, orthonasal perception and denture status were found to be independent contributors to predicting olfactory flavor sensitivity. In summary, elderly subjects showed depressed olfactory flavor sensitivity (i.e. retronasal sensitivity) that related to poor orthonasal olfactory perception and denture characteristic. Thus, while good orthonasal olfaction may be necessary for good olfactory flavor sensitivity, it is not sufficient. Other factors, some associated with oral conditions, may impede release and retronasal transport of odors from the mouth to the olfactory receptors.     

Organ culture of rat heart: maintained high sensitivity of fetal atria before innervation to norepinephrine

Changes in sensitivity to norepinephrine (NE) of fetal and neonatal rat right atria placed in organ culture were examined. The high sensitivity to NE of the 17-day fetal atria was maintained during organ culture for 5 days. The pD2 value for NE at the 17th day of gestation was 8.66 +/- 0.09, and that after organ culture for 5 days was 8.62 +/- 0.09. The sensitivity of 1-day-old neonatal artia was significantly lower than that of fetal atria; but when they were cultured for 24 h, there was a 10-fold increase in sensitivity. The pD2 value before culture was 7.59 +/- 0.05, and that after culture was 8.54 +/- 0.04. NE added to the culture medium prevented this increase in sensitivity. Similar changes were observed in the sensitivity to isoproterenol, but not in the sensitivity to forskolin, indicating that these sensitivity changes were of a postjunctional nature and most likely due to some changes in the beta-receptor and (or) its coupling to adenylate cyclase. Therefore, the decrease in myocardial sensitivity to NE observed during the late fetal period is most likely to be caused by factor(s) related to sympathetic innervation.     

Structural sensitivity of biological models revisited

Enhancing the predictive power of models in biology is a challenging issue. Among the major difficulties impeding model development and implementation are the sensitivity of outcomes to variations in model parameters, the problem of choosing of particular expressions for the parametrization of functional relations, and difficulties in validating models using laboratory data and/or field observations. In this paper, we revisit the phenomenon which is referred to as structural sensitivity of a model. Structural sensitivity arises as a result of the interplay between sensitivity of model outcomes to variations in parameters and sensitivity to the choice of model functions, and this can be somewhat of a bottleneck in improving the models predictive power. We provide a rigorous definition of structural sensitivity and we show how we can quantify the degree of sensitivity of a model based on the Hausdorff distance concept. We propose a simple semi-analytical test of structural sensitivity in an ODE modeling framework. Furthermore, we emphasize the importance of directly linking the variability of field/experimental data and model predictions, and we demonstrate a way of assessing the robustness of modeling predictions with respect to data sampling variability. As an insightful illustrative example, we test our sensitivity analysis methods on a chemostat predator-prey model, where we use laboratory data on the feeding of protozoa to parameterize the predator functional response.     

Breast imaging using 3D electrical impedence tomography

Aim: To determine the diagnostic efficiency of 3D Eletrical Impedance Tomography (EIT) compared to Mammography (MG) and Ultrasonography (USG) in imaging the breast. Materials and Methods: A group of 88 patients presenting with various breast complaints was examined using combined Mammography and Ultrasonography (MG & USG) or either of these modalities alone. The same patients were then examined using the 3D EIT imaging system "MEIK". The findings were then compared. The sensitivity of these modalities for this group of patients were later determined and statistically analysed. Results: Of the total of 88 patients, 59 findings were "suspicious" by any of the 3 modalities alone or by their combination. EIT had a sensitivity of 77.8 % compared to MG with a sensitivity of 83.3 % and USG with a sensitivity of 94.4 % regarding cases of fibrocystic mastitis. For cases involving cysts, EIT had 100 % sensitivity which was the same as that for USG compared to MG with a sensitivity of only 81 %. Among cases of fibroadenoma, EIT had a sensitivity of just 68.8 % compared to MG with a sensitivity of 87.5 % and USG with a sensitivity of 75 %. Finally among cases of carcinoma, EIT had a sensitivity of 75 % compared to the sensitivity of 100 % of MG and USG in our group of patients. The study revealed that there was no overall significant difference in sensitivity between MG-USG (p = 0.219) and MG-EIT (p = 0.779) and USG-EIT (p = 0.169). However, in regard to identifying cysts there was significant difference in the sensitivity of MG compared to USG & EIT suggesting that EIT has a role in these cases. Conclusion: Electrical impedance could be used as an adjunct to Mammography and Ultrasonography for breast cancer detection. However, the differentiation of malignant from benign lesions based on impedance measurements needs further investigation. Multifrequency electrical impedance imaging appears the most promising for detecting breast malignancies but methodological improvements need to be made to realise its potential.     

Temperature effects on low-light vision in juvenile rockfish (Genus <Emphasis Type="Italic">Sebastes</Emphasis>) and consequences for habitat utilization

The absolute low-light sensitivity of four congeneric species of rockfish (genus Sebastes) was studied from analysis of electroretinograms measured in living fish. The purpose was: (1) to determine if temperature sensitive noise in rod photoreceptors affects the absolute limit to low-light sensitivity at environmentally realistic temperatures and light levels, and (2) to examine whether interspecific variations in habitat utilization within rockfish communities correlate with differences in visual sensitivity. It was found that the low-light sensitivity of individual retinae is inversely dependent on temperature, decreasing tenfold with a 10°C increase in temperature. While in all four species, temperature had a similar effect on sensitivity, the absolute sensitivity levels were different. The four species could be divided into two groups based on measured sensitivity. Kelp and olive rockfish form a high-sensitivity group capable of responding to light levels approximately 50-fold lower than blue and black rockfish. The sensitivity groups correlated with reported diel activity patterns; the high-sensitivity group forages nocturnally, whereas members of the low-sensitivity group are quiescent during twilight and night and forage during the day.     

Differences in Sensitivity to Cold in Japanese Men and Postmenopausal Women Aged ≥50 Years

Background: Sensitivity to cold is associated with several factors, such as aging, sex, and body composition. However, no previous studies have examined the differences in sensitivity to cold in men and women or the association of hormonal levels with sensitivity to cold.Objective: The aim of the present study was to clarify both the change in sensitivity to cold with aging and the difference in sensitivity to cold between men and women. Associations were also examined between circulating hormonal concentrations and the changes with aging and differences in sensitivity.Methods: This population-based cohort study enrolled healthy Japanese men and women aged ≥ 50 years. A standardized 210-item health questionnaire was used to obtain information on symp- toms of sensitivity to cold. Serum concentrations of luteinizing hormone, follicle-stimulating hor- mone (FSH), estradiol, testosterone, dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate, and sex hormone-binding globu- lin (SHBG) were measured.Results: Of the 154 men and 180 women enrolled in this study, more women than men had sensitivity to cold. Whereas the percentage of men who had sensitivity to cold significantly increased with aging (P < 0.05), the percentage of women who had sensitivity to cold was already high (23.7%) at 50 to 60 years of age and did not change with aging. In men, advancing age and low body mass index (BMI) were significantly associated with sensitivity to cold (P < 0.05); however, age and BMI in women were not similarly associated. In addition, the effect of sex after adjustment for age was significant (P < 0.05), and there was also a numeric but nonsignificant effect of sex after adjustment for BMI. In men, low serum levels of the gonadal hormone FSH were significantly associated with sensitivity to cold in logistic analysis, but this association was nonsignificant after multivariate analysis. Serum concentrations of gonadal hormones and SHBG in women were not associated with sensitivity to col.Conclusions: The association of age with sensitivity to cold was different in men and women; the association of BMI with sensitivity to cold might be different in men and women. In addition, these changes in sensitivity to cold were not associated with circulating hormonal concentrations.     

支原体对抗生素的体外敏感性研究

目的研究非淋菌性尿道(宫颈)炎(NGU)患者支原体对12种抗生素敏感性,指导临床治疗。方法男性标本取尿道拭子．女性标本取宫颈拭子,采用支原体培养鉴定及药敏试剂盒进行体外药敏测定。结果126株解脲支原体(Uu)对12种抗生素敏感性从高至低依次为交沙霉素、强力霉素、美满霉素、克拉霉素、四环素、阿奇霉素、罗红霉素、司帕沙星、甲砜霉素、红霉素、可乐必妥和壮观霉素。12株人型支原体(Mh)对12种抗生素敏感性从高至低依次为交沙霉素、强力霉素、美满霉素、司帕沙星、四环素、壮观霉素、可乐必妥、甲砜霉素、红霉素、阿奇霉素、克拉霉素和罗红霉素。结论支原体耐药情况相当普遍。Uu、Mh对相同抗生素具有不同的敏感性。治疗时可依据药敏结果选择用药。     

Comparative study of parameter sensitivity analyses of the TCR-activated Erk-MAPK signalling pathway

Parameter estimation is a major challenge for mathematical modelling of biological systems. Given the uncertainties associated with model parameters, it is important to understand how sensitive the model output is to variations in parameter values. A local sensitivity analysis determines the model sensitivity to parameter variations over a localised region around the nominal parameter values, whereas a global sensitivity analysis (GSA) investigates the sensitivity over the entire parameter space. Using a T-cell receptor-activated Erk-MAPK signalling pathway model as an example, the authors present a comparative study of a variety of different sensitivity analysis techniques. These techniques include: local sensitivity analysis, existing GSA methods of partial rank correlation coefficient, Sobol's, extended Fourier amplitude sensitivity test, as well as a weighted average of local sensitivities and a new GSA method to extract global parameter sensitivities from a parameter identification routine. Results of this study revealed critical reactions in the signalling pathway and their impact on the signalling dynamics and provided insights into embedded regulatory mechanisms such as feedback loops in the pathway. From this study, a recommendation emerges for a general sensitivity analysis strategy to efficiently and reliably infer quantitative, dynamic as well as topological properties from systems biology models.     

Increased insulin sensitivity in soleus muscle from cold-exposed rats: reversal by an adenosine-receptor agonist

The effect of 0.5, 2, 7 and 14 days cold exposure at 4 degrees C on insulin sensitivity was investigated in the stripped soleus muscle preparation incubated in vitro. Cold-exposure for 2 or 7 days increased the sensitivity of glycolysis, but did not affect the sensitivity of glycogen synthesis to insulin. Cold-exposure for 0.5 or 14 days had no effect on the sensitivity of either process to insulin. The increased sensitivity to insulin after exposure of animals to the cold for 2 days was completely reversed by addition of the adenosine receptor agonist, 2-chloroadenosine, to the incubation medium. This suggests that cold exposure may increase insulin sensitivity in the muscle, either by a decrease in the concentration of adenosine in the muscle, or by a decrease in the number or affinity of the adenosine receptors.