Assessing the impact of ambient temperature on the risk of hand,foot, and mouth disease in Guangdong,China: New insight from the disease severity and burden

BackgroundThe association between the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) and ambient temperature has been well documented. Although the severity of symptoms is an important indicator of disease burden and varies significantly across cases, it usually was ignored in previous studies, potentially leading to biased estimates of the health impact of temperature.MethodsWe estimated the disability-adjusted life year (DALY) by considering the severity of symptoms for each HFMD case reported during 2010–2012 in Guangdong and used distributed lag-nonlinear models to estimate the association between the daily average temperature and daily DALY of HFMD cases at the city-level. We investigated the potential effect modifiers on the pathway between temperature and DALY and pooled city-specific estimates to a provincial association using a meta-regression. The overall impact of temperature was further evaluated by estimates of DALYs that could be attributed to HFMD.ResultsThe overall cumulative effect of daily mean temperature on the DALY of HFMD showed an inverse-U shape, with the maximum effect estimated to be β = 0.0331 (95%CI: 0.0199–0.0463) DALY at 23.8°C. Overall, a total of 6.432 (95%CI: 3.942–8.885) DALYs (attributable fraction = 2.721%, 95%CI: 1.660–3.759%) could be attributed to temperature exposure. All the demographic subgroups had a similar trend as the main analysis, while the magnitude of the peak of the temperature impact tended to be higher among the males, those aged ≥3yrs or from the Pear-River Delta region. Additionally, the impact of temperature on DALY elevated significantly with the increasing population density, per capita GDP, and per capita green space in parks.ConclusionsTemperature exposure was associated with increased burden of HFMD nonlinearly, with certain groups such as boys and those from areas with greater population density being more vulnerable.     

Antenatal Syphilis Screening Using Point-Of-Care Testing in Low- and Middle-Income Countries in Asia and Latin America: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

BackgroundUntreated syphilis in pregnancy is associated with adverse clinical outcomes to the infant. In low- and middle-income countries in Asia and Latin America, 20%-30% of women are not tested for syphilis during pregnancy. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of increasing the coverage for antenatal syphilis screening in 11 Asian and 20 Latin American countries, using a point-of-care immunochromatographic strip (ICS) test.MethodsThe decision analytical cost-effectiveness models reported incremental costs per disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted from the perspectives of the national health care payer. Clinical outcomes were stillbirths, neonatal deaths, and congenital syphilis. DALYs were computed using WHO disability weights. Costs included the ICS test, three injections of benzathine penicillin, and nurse wages. Country-specific inputs included the antenatal prevalence of syphilis and the proportion of women in the antenatal care setting that are screened for syphilis infection as reported in the 2014 WHO baseline report on global sexually transmitted infection surveillance. Country-specific data on the annual number of live births, proportion of women with at least one antenatal care visit, and per capita gross national income were also included in the model.ResultsThe incremental cost/DALY averted of syphilis screening is US$53 (range: US$10-US$332; Prob<1*per capita GDP=99.71%) in Asia and US$60 (range: US$5-US$225; Prob<1*per capita GDP=99.77%) in Latin America. Universal screening may reduce the annual number of stillbirths by 20,344 and 4,270, neonatal deaths by 8,201 and 1,721, cases of congenital syphilis by 10,952 and 2,298, and avert 925,039 and 197,454 DALYs in the aggregate Asian and Latin American panel, respectively.ConclusionAntenatal syphilis screening is highly cost-effective in all the 11 Asian and 20 Latin American countries assessed. Our findings support the decision to expand syphilis screening in countries with currently low screening rates or continue national syphilis screening programs in countries with high rates.     

The Prevalence and Incidence of Atrial Fibrillation in Patients with Acute Pulmonary Embolism

Background

Symptomatic pulmonary embolism (PE) is a major cause of cardiovascular death and morbidity. Estimated prevalence and incidence of atrial fibrillation (AF) in developed countries are between 388–661 per 100,000, and 90–123 per 100,000 person-years respectively. However, the prevalence and incidence of AF in patients presenting with an acute PE and its predictors are not clear.

Methods

Individual patient clinical details were retrieved from a database containing all confirmed acute PE presentations to a tertiary institution from 2001–2012. Prevalence and incidence of AF was tracked from a population registry by systematically searching for AF during any hospital admission (2000–2013) based on International Classification of Disease (ICD-10) code.

Results

Of the 1,142 patients included in this study, 935 (81.9%) had no AF during index PE admission whilst 207 patients had documented baseline AF (prevalence rate 18,126 per 100,000; age-adjusted 4,672 per 100,000). Of the 935 patients without AF, 126 developed AF post-PE (incidence rate 2,778 per 100,000 person-years; age-adjusted 984 per 100,000 person-years). Mean time from PE to subsequent AF was 3.4 ± 2.9 years. Total mortality (mean follow-up 5.0 ± 3.7 years) was 42% (n = 478): 35% (n = 283), 59% (n = 119) and 60% (n = 76) in the no AF, baseline AF and subsequent AF cohorts respectively. Independent predictors for subsequent AF after acute PE include age (hazard ratio [HR] 1.06, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.04–1.08, p<0.001), history of congestive cardiac failure (HR 1.88, 95% CI 1.12–3.16, p = 0.02), diabetes (HR 1.72, 95% CI 1.07–2.77, p = 0.02), obstructive sleep apnea (HR 4.83, 1.48–15.8, p = 0.009) and day-1 serum sodium level during index PE admission (HR 0.94, 95% CI 0.90–0.98, p = 0.002).

Conclusions

Patients presenting with acute PE have a markedly increased age-adjusted prevalence and subsequent incidence of AF. Screening for AF may be of importance post-PE.     

Profile of cancer in the Eastern Mediterranean region: The need for action

BackgroundMany countries in the Eastern Mediterranean region (EMR) are undergoing marked demographic and socioeconomic transitions that are increasing the cancer burden in region. We sought to examine the national cancer incidence and mortality profiles as a support to regional cancer control planning in the EMR.MethodsGLOBOCAN 2012 data were used to estimate cancer incidence and mortality by country, cancer type, sex and age in 22 EMR countries. We calculated age-standardized incidence and mortality rates (per 100,000) using direct method of standardization.ResultsThe cancer incidence and mortality rates vary considerably between countries in the EMR. Incidence rates were highest in Lebanon (204 and 193 per 100,000 in males and females, respectively). Mortality rates were highest in Lebanon (119) and Egypt (121) among males and in Somalia (117) among females. The profile of common cancers differs substantially by sex. For females, breast cancer is the most common cancer in all 22 countries, followed by cervical cancer, which ranks high only in the lower-income countries in the region. For males, lung, prostate, and colorectal cancer in combination represent almost 30% of the cancer burden in countries that have attained very high levels of human development.ConclusionsThe most common cancers are largely amenable to preventive strategies by primary and/or secondary prevention, hence a need for effective interventions tackling lifestyle risk factors and infections. The high mortality observed from breast and cervical cancer highlights the need to break the stigmas and improve awareness surrounding these cancers.     

Perceived Stress and Coping Strategies in Relation to Body Mass Index: Cross-Sectional Study of 12,045 Japanese Men and Women

BackgroundAccumulated evidence suggests a weak positive relationship between psychosocial stress and body mass index (BMI), but little is known about stress coping strategies and BMI.ObjectiveWe aimed to examine if perceived stress and coping strategies are related to BMI, with any of their mutual interactions on BMI.MethodsThis cross-sectional study included 5,063 men and 6,982 women aged 40-69 years. A self-administered questionnaire ascertained perceived stress and 5 items of coping strategies (emotion expression, emotional support seeking, positive reappraisal, problem solving, and disengagement). Analyses were performed by gender with adjustment for age, socioeconomic status, and lifestyle factors.ResultsNo significant associations were detected between perceived stress and BMI in either men (P_trend = 0.09) or women (P_trend = 0.58). In men, however, ‘disengagement’ showed an inverse association with BMI (P_trend < 0.001), and ‘positive reappraisal’ and ‘problem solving’ revealed a positive association with BMI (P_trend = 0.04 and 0.007, respectively) even after controlling for perceived stress. A possible interaction between perceived stress and ‘disengagement’ on BMI was found in men (P_interaction = 0.027); the inverse association between ‘disengagement’ and BMI was more evident in higher levels of stress (β = −0.13, P_trend = 0.21 in low; β = −0.22, P_trend = 0.01 in medium; and β = −0.24, P_trend = 0.06 in high). In men, ‘disengagement’ was inversely associated with overweight/obesity (odds ratio 0.79, 95% confidential interval 0.67-0.95), and “positive reappraisal” was positively associated with it (1.25, 1.02-1.54).ConclusionsCoping strategies may have an important role in developing overweight/obesity, particularly in men.     

Patterns and Associated Factors of Physical Activity among Adolescents in Nigeria

Introduction

Understanding the context where adolescents’ physical activity (PA) takes place could impact a more targeted approach to implement PA promotion and interventions in Africa. However, standardized data on adolescents’ PA behaviour is lacking in Nigeria. We described PA patterns in the various domains (home, school, transport, leisure-time) and intensity categories (light-intensity PA, moderate- to vigorous- intensity physical activity [MVPA] and total PA), and their associations with sociodemographic factors and socioeconomic status (SES) among secondary school adolescents in Nigeria.

Methods

A cross-sectional survey was conducted in a representative sample of 1006 secondary school adolescents (12–18 years, 50.4% girls) in Maiduguri, Nigeria. Self-reported PA was assessed with an adapted version of the Activity Questionnaire for Adolescents and Young Adults. Outcomes were weekly minutes (min/wk) of PA spent in the various domains and intensity categories. Multivariate ANOVA was used to examine associations of PA scores (domains and intensity levels) with adolescents’ sociodemographic characteristics and SES, and track differences in PA scores between subgroups.

Results

The total sample reported most PA at school (1525 min/wk), the least during active transportation (210 min/wk), and only 37% engaged in 60 min of MVPA daily. Boys reported significantly more leisure-time PA (P<0.001), active transportation (P<0.001), MVPA (P = 0.023) and total PA (P = 0.003) than girls, while girls reported more school-based PA (P = 0.009), home-based PA (P<0.001) and light-intensity PA (P<0.001) than boys. Moderate-intensity PA (P = 0.024) and total PA (P = 0.049) were significantly higher in younger age group than in older group. Household car ownership was associated with less active transportation (P = 0.009), less moderate-intensity PA (P = 0.048) and with more leisure-time PA (P = 0.013). High parental SES was associated with more leisure-time PA (P = 0.002), more MVPA (P = 0.047) and less active transportation (P<0.001). Adolescents of various weight status differed significantly in their leisure-time PA (P<0.001), moderate-intensity PA (P = 0.011) and total PA (P = 0.033).

Conclusions

The patterns and levels of physical activity among adolescents in Nigeria vary according to the adolescents’ age, gender, weight status and SES. These findings have important public health implications for identifying subgroups of Nigerian adolescents that should be targeted for effective physical activity promoting interventions.     

Incidence of Appendicitis over Time: A Comparative Analysis of an Administrative Healthcare Database and a Pathology-Proven Appendicitis Registry

ImportanceAt the turn of the 21^st century, studies evaluating the change in incidence of appendicitis over time have reported inconsistent findings.ObjectivesWe compared the differences in the incidence of appendicitis derived from a pathology registry versus an administrative database in order to validate coding in administrative databases and establish temporal trends in the incidence of appendicitis.DesignWe conducted a population-based comparative cohort study to identify all individuals with appendicitis from 2000 to2008.ResultsThe administrative database (PPV = 83.0%) overestimated the incidence of appendicitis (100.3 per 100,000) when compared to the pathology registry (84.2 per 100,000). Codes for perforated appendicitis were not reliable (PPV = 52.4%) leading to overestimation in the incidence of perforated appendicitis in the administrative database (34.8 per 100,000) as compared to the pathology registry (19.4 per 100,000). The incidence of appendicitis significantly increased over time in both the administrative database (APC = 2.1%; 95% CI: 1.3, 2.8) and pathology registry (APC = 4.1; 95% CI: 3.1, 5.0).

Conclusion & Relevance

The administrative database overestimated the incidence of appendicitis, particularly among perforated appendicitis. Therefore, studies utilizing administrative data to analyze perforated appendicitis should be interpreted cautiously.     

Effect of oseltamivir phosphate versus placebo on platelet recovery and plasma leakage in adults with dengue and thrombocytopenia; a phase 2, multicenter,double-blind,randomized trial

BackgroundThrombocytopenia, bleeding and plasma leakage are major complications of dengue. Activation of endogenous sialidases with desialylation of platelets and endothelial cells may underlie these complications. We aimed to assess the effects of the neuraminidase inhibitor oseltamivir on platelet recovery and plasma leakage in dengue.MethodsWe performed a phase 2, double-blind, multicenter, randomized trial in adult dengue patients with thrombocytopenia (<70,000/μl) and a duration of illness ≤ 6 days. Oseltamivir phosphate 75mg BID or placebo were given for a maximum of five days. Primary outcomes were the time to platelet recovery (≥ 100,000/μl) or discharge from hospital and the course of measures of plasma leakage.ResultsA total of 70 patients were enrolled; the primary outcome could be assessed in 64 patients (31 oseltamivir; 33 placebo). Time to platelet count ≥100,000/μl (n = 55) or discharge (n = 9) were similar in the oseltamivir and placebo group (3.0 days [95% confidence interval, 2.7 to 3.3] vs. 2.9 days [2.5 to 3.3], P = 0.055). The kinetics of platelet count and parameters of plasma leakage (gall bladder thickness, hematocrit, plasma albumin, syndecan-1) were also similar between the groups.DiscussionIn this trial, adjunctive therapy with oseltamivir phosphate had no effect on platelet recovery or plasma leakage parameters.Trial registrationISRCTN35227717.     

The relationship between phosphorylation status of focal adhesion kinases,molecular subtypes,tumour microenvironment and survival in patients with primary operable ductal breast cancer

BackgroundDespite advances in therapies to treat breast cancer, over 100,000 patients die in the UK of this disease per year, highlighting the need to develop effect predictive and prognostic markers for patients with primary operable ductal breast cancer. Therefore, the aim of the present study was to examine the relationship between membranous, cytoplasmic and nuclear expression of focal adhesion kinase (phosphorylated at Y 397, Y 861 and Y 925), molecular subtypes, tumour microenvironment and survival in patients with primary operable ductal breast cancer.MethodsFour hundred and seventy-four patients presenting between 1995 and 1998 with primary operable ductal breast cancer were included in this study. Using tissue microarrays expression of membranous, cytoplasmic and nuclear tumour cell phosphorylation of FAK at Y³⁹⁷, Y⁸⁶¹ and Y⁹²⁵ was assessed, and associations with clinicopathological characteristics, tumour microenvironment and cancer-specific survival (CSS) were examined.ResultsNo significant association was observed for ph-FAK Y⁸⁶¹ with survival at all sites. However, high expression of membranous ph-FAK Y³⁹⁷ was associated with increased tumour grade (P < .001), molecular subtypes (P < .001), increased tumour necrosis (P < .001), high Klintrup–Mäkinen grade (P < .001), increased CD138+ plasma cells (P = .031), endocrine therapy (P = .001) and poor cancer specific survival (P = .040). Similarly, high expression of nuclear ph-FAK Y³⁹⁷ was associated with decreased age (P = .042), increased CD138+ plasma cells (P = .001) and poor cancer specific survival (P = .003). Furthermore, high expression of cytoplasmic ph-FAK Y⁹²⁵ was associated with decreased tumour grade (P < .001), less involved lymph node (P = .020), molecular subtypes (P < .001), decreased tumour necrosis (P < .001), low Klintrup–Mäkinen grade (P < .001), decreased CD4+ T-cells (P = .006), decreased CD138+ plasma cells (P = .034), endocrine therapy (P < .001), chemotherapy (P = .048), and improved cancer specific survival (P = .044). On multivariate analysis, high expression of nuclear ph-FAK Y³⁹⁷ was independently associated with reduced cancer specific survival (P = .017).ConclusionThe results of the present study show that membranous and nuclear ph-FAK Y³⁹⁷ and cytoplasmic ph-FAK Y⁹²⁵ were associated with prognosis in patients with primary operable ductal breast cancer. In addition, high expression of nuclear ph-FAK Y³⁹⁷ was an independent prognostic factor in patients with primary operable ductal breast cancer and could be incorporated into clinical practice.     

Epidemiology of pediatric primary malignant central nervous system tumors in Iran: A 10 year report of National Cancer Registry

BackgroundCNS tumors are the leading cause of cancer related deaths among children and adolescents. Nonetheless, the incidence of pediatric CNS tumors in developing countries is poorly understood. We aimed to provide epidemiologic features of primary malignant CNS tumors in Iranian children 0–19 years of age using National Cancer Registry (NCR) data bank.MethodsThe data recorded by NCR over a 10 year period (2000–2010) were reviewed.ResultsOf 1948 tumor cases, 93.3% were located in brain, 5.1% were found in the spinal cord & cauda equina, and 1.6% affected cranial nerves and other parts of the nervous system. The overall average annual age specific incidence rate was 1.43 per 100,000. Males were more likely to develop CNS tumors (1.65 per 100,000) compared to females (1.21 per 100,000, p < 0.01). Children under 5 years of age had the highest age specific incidence rate (1.86 per 100,000). Astrocytic tumors with the incidence rate of 0.61 per 100,000 were the most frequent specific histology followed by embryonal (0.38 per 100,000), and ependymal tumors (0.10 per 100,000). With regard to the histological distribution of tumors, some unique features including the high proportion of unspecified malignant neoplasms (7.6%) were noted.ConclusionThe overall incidence rate was markedly lower than western findings. Major differences were also observed in incidence rates of specific histologies. Although the discrepancies may be attributable to diversity in classification schemes and registration practices, a real ethnic and geographical variation in predisposition to development of pediatric CNS cancers is strongly suggested.     

Reduced Incidence of Foot-Related Hospitalisation and Amputation amongst Persons with Diabetes in Queensland,Australia

Objective

To determine trends in the incidence of foot-related hospitalisation and amputation amongst persons with diabetes in Queensland (Australia) between 2005 and 2010 that coincided with changes in state-wide ambulatory diabetic foot-related complication management.

Methods

All data from cases admitted for the principal reason of diabetes foot-related hospitalisation or amputation in Queensland from 2005–2010 were obtained from the Queensland Hospital Admitted Patient Data Collection dataset. Incidence rates for foot-related hospitalisation (admissions, bed days used) and amputation (total, minor, major) cases amongst persons with diabetes were calculated per 1,000 person-years with diabetes (diabetes population) and per 100,000 person-years (general population). Age-sex standardised incidence and age-sex adjusted Poisson regression models were also calculated for the general population.

Results

There were 4,443 amputations, 24,917 hospital admissions and 260,085 bed days used for diabetes foot-related complications in Queensland. Incidence per 1,000 person-years with diabetes decreased from 2005 to 2010: 43.0% for hospital admissions (36.6 to 20.9), 40.1% bed days (391 to 234), 40.0% total amputations (6.47 to 3.88), 45.0% major amputations (2.18 to 1.20), 37.5% minor amputations (4.29 to 2.68) (p < 0.01 respectively). Age-sex standardised incidence per 100,000 person-years in the general population also decreased from 2005 to 2010: 23.3% hospital admissions (105.1 to 80.6), 19.5% bed days (1,122 to 903), 19.3% total amputations (18.57 to 14.99), 26.4% major amputations (6.26 to 4.61), 15.7% minor amputations (12.32 to 10.38) (p < 0.01 respectively). The age-sex adjusted incidence rates per calendar year decreased in the general population (rate ratio (95% CI)); hospital admissions 0.949 (0.942–0.956), bed days 0.964 (0.962–0.966), total amputations 0.962 (0.946–0.979), major amputations 0.945 (0.917–0.974), minor amputations 0.970 (0.950–0.991) (p < 0.05 respectively).

Conclusions

There were significant reductions in the incidence of foot-related hospitalisation and amputation amongst persons with diabetes in the population of Queensland over a recent six-year period.     

Severe bacterial neonatal infections in Madagascar,Senegal, and Cambodia: A multicentric community-based cohort study

BackgroundSevere bacterial infections (SBIs) are a leading cause of neonatal deaths in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). However, most data came from hospitals, which do not include neonates who did not seek care or were treated outside the hospital. Studies from the community are scarce, and few among those available were conducted with high-quality microbiological techniques. The burden of SBI at the community level is therefore largely unknown. We aimed here to describe the incidence, etiology, risk factors, and antibiotic resistance profiles of community-acquired neonatal SBI in 3 LMICs.Methods and findingsThe BIRDY study is a prospective multicentric community-based mother and child cohort study and was conducted in both urban and rural areas in Madagascar (2012 to 2018), Cambodia (2014 to 2018), and Senegal (2014 to 2018). All pregnant women within a geographically defined population were identified and enrolled. Their neonates were actively followed from birth to 28 days to document all episodes of SBI. A total of 3,858 pregnant women (2,273 (58.9%) in Madagascar, 814 (21.1%) in Cambodia, and 771 (20.0%) in Senegal) were enrolled in the study, and, of these, 31.2% were primigravidae. Women enrolled in the urban sites represented 39.6% (900/2,273), 45.5% (370/814), and 61.9% (477/771), and those enrolled in the rural sites represented 60.4% (1,373/2,273), 54.5% (444/814), and 38.1% (294/771) of the total in Madagascar, Cambodia, and Senegal, respectively. Among the 3,688 recruited newborns, 49.6% were male and 8.7% were low birth weight (LBW). The incidence of possible severe bacterial infection (pSBI; clinical diagnosis based on WHO guidelines of the Integrated Management of Childhood Illness) was 196.3 [95% confidence interval (CI) 176.5 to 218.2], 110.1 [88.3 to 137.3], and 78.3 [59.5 to 103] per 1,000 live births in Madagascar, Cambodia, and Senegal, respectively. The incidence of pSBI differed between urban and rural sites in all study countries. In Madagascar, we estimated an incidence of 161.0 pSBI per 1,000 live births [133.5 to 194] in the urban site and 219.0 [192.6 to 249.1] pSBI per 1,000 live births in the rural site (p = 0.008). In Cambodia, estimated incidences were 141.1 [105.4 to 189.0] and 85.3 [61.0 to 119.4] pSBI per 1,000 live births in urban and rural sites, respectively (p = 0.025), while in Senegal, we estimated 103.6 [76.0 to 141.2] pSBI and 41.5 [23.0 to 75.0] pSBI per 1,000 live births in urban and rural sites, respectively (p = 0.006). The incidences of culture-confirmed SBI were 15.2 [10.6 to 21.8], 6.5 [2.7 to 15.6], and 10.2 [4.8 to 21.3] per 1,000 live births in Madagascar, Cambodia, and Senegal, respectively, with no difference between urban and rural sites in each country. The great majority of early-onset infections occurred during the first 3 days of life (72.7%). The 3 main pathogens isolated were Klebsiella spp. (11/45, 24.4%), Escherichia coli (10/45, 22.2%), and Staphylococcus spp. (11/45, 24.4%). Among the 13 gram-positive isolates, 5 were resistant to gentamicin, and, among the 29 gram-negative isolates, 13 were resistant to gentamicin, with only 1 E. coli out of 10 sensitive to ampicillin. Almost one-third of the isolates were resistant to both first-line drugs recommended for the management of neonatal sepsis (ampicillin and gentamicin). Overall, 38 deaths occurred among neonates with SBI (possible and culture-confirmed SBI together). LBW and foul-smelling amniotic fluid at delivery were common risk factors for early pSBI in all 3 countries. A main limitation of the study was the lack of samples from a significant proportion of infants with pBSI including 35 neonatal deaths. Without these samples, bacterial infection and resistance profiles could not be confirmed.ConclusionsIn this study, we observed a high incidence of neonatal SBI, particularly in the first 3 days of life, in the community of 3 LMICs. The current treatment for the management of neonatal infection is hindered by antimicrobial resistance. Our findings suggest that microbiological diagnosis of SBI remains a challenge in these settings and support more research on causes of neonatal death and the implementation of early interventions (e.g., follow-up of at-risk newborns during the first days of life) to decrease the burden of neonatal SBI and associated mortality and help achieve Sustainable Development Goal 3.

In a community-based, prospective cohort study, Bich-Tram Huynh and colleagues investigate the incidence and factors associated with several bacterial infections among neonates in rural and urban areas of three low-middle income countries.     

Incidence of Co-Infections of HIV,Herpes Simplex Virus Type 2 and Syphilis in a Large Cohort of Men Who Have Sex with Men in Beijing,China

Background

The HIV-epidemic among MSM in China has worsened. In this key population, prevalence of HSV-2 and syphilis infection and co-infection with HIV is high.

Methods

A longitudinal study was conducted (n = 962) in Beijing, China, with three overlapping cohorts (n = 857, 757 and 760) consisting of MSM that were free from pairs of infections of concern (i.e. HIV-HSV-2, HIV-syphilis, HSV-2-syphilis) at baseline to estimate incidence of HIV, HSV-2, syphilis, and those of co-infection.

Results

The incidence of HIV, HSV-2 and syphilis in the overall cohort was 3.90 (95% CI = 2.37, 5.43), 7.87 (95% CI = 5.74, 10.00) and 6.06 (95% CI = 4.18, 7.94) cases per 100 person-years (PYs), respectively. The incidence of HIV-HSV-2, HIV-Syphilis and HSV-2-Syphilis co-infections was 0.30 (95% CI = 0.29, 0.88), 1.02 (95% CI = 0.13, 2.17) and 1.41 (95% CI: 0.04, 2.78) cases per 100 PYs, respectively, in the three sub-cohorts constructed for this study.

Conclusions

The incidence of HIV, HSV-2 and syphilis was very high and those of their co-infections were relatively high. Such co-infections have negative impacts on the HIV/STI epidemics. Prevention practices need to take such co-infections into account.     

Leptospirosis: Morbidity,mortality, and spatial distribution of hospitalized cases in Ecuador. A nationwide study 2000-2020

BackgroundIn Ecuador, leptospirosis surveillance involves a mandatory notification of all cases and a hospitalization for severe illness. Morbidity and mortality are, nevertheless, underestimated and contribute directly to the status of leptospirosis as a neglected disease. Leptospira spp. is zoonotic in Ecuador with established endemic transmission in the Tropics. Here, we review retrospective national data within the country to aid in control strategies.Methodology/Principal findingsIn a population-based nationwide study, we analysed morbidity, mortality, and spatial distribution on confirmed hospital-discharged leptospirosis cases from 2000–2020 from a publicly accesible National Database, including males and females of all ages. We computed data for the 24 provinces across the four-geoclimatic regions of Ecuador based on seasonal and monthly variations and calculated rates according to age and sex. The spatial distribution was estimated at the level of ecoregions, provinces, and cantons. A total of 2,584 hospitalizations were recorded over all three continental regions in 22 provinces, except Carchi province and the Galapagos Islands. The annual incidence varied from 0.27 to 2.45 cases per 100,000 inhabitants with ages ranging from 1 to 98 years-old and an overall male/female ratio of 1.92:1. Most hospitalizations and deaths occurred in males ages 25–34 years. We registered 79 fatalities (3.06%); the highest mortality rate was 0.05 per 100,000 inhabitants. More cases clustered in the tropical cantons of central and north of the Coast and in the southern Amazon when compared to the Andes.Conclusions and significanceOur findings evidence leptospirosis endemicity and pinpoint the highest incidence within resource-poor tropical settings. The highest incidence occurred in males of adult age, with those also exhibiting the highest mortality. The national incidence rate was stable, but peaks occurred intermittently during the rainy seasons. Thus, strategies aimed at leptospirosis monitoring and control involving the application of preventive measures should consider this season and the aforementioned high-risk groups.     

Early warning of hand,foot, and mouth disease transmission: A modeling study in mainland,China

BackgroundHand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a global infectious disease; particularly, it has a high disease burden in China. This study was aimed to explore the temporal and spatial distribution of the disease by analyzing its epidemiological characteristics, and to calculate the early warning signals of HFMD by using a logistic differential equation (LDE) model.MethodsThis study included datasets of HFMD cases reported in seven regions in Mainland China. The early warning time (week) was calculated using the LDE model with the key parameters estimated by fitting with the data. Two key time points, “epidemic acceleration week (EAW)” and “recommended warning week (RWW)”, were calculated to show the early warning time.ResultsThe mean annual incidence of HFMD cases per 100,000 per year was 218, 360, 223, 124, and 359 in Hunan Province, Shenzhen City, Xiamen City, Chuxiong Prefecture, Yunxiao County across the southern regions, respectively and 60 and 34 in Jilin Province and Longde County across the northern regions, respectively. The LDE model fitted well with the reported data (R² > 0.65, P < 0.001). Distinct temporal patterns were found across geographical regions: two early warning signals emerged in spring and autumn every year across southern regions while one early warning signals in summer every year across northern regions.ConclusionsThe disease burden of HFMD in China is still high, with more cases occurring in the southern regions. The early warning of HFMD across the seven regions is heterogeneous. In the northern regions, it has a high incidence during summer and peaks in June every year; in the southern regions, it has two waves every year with the first wave during spring spreading faster than the second wave during autumn. Our findings can help predict and prepare for active periods of HFMD.     

Incidence and survival of peritoneal malignant mesothelioma between 1989 and 2015: A population-based study

BackgroundPeritoneal malignant mesothelioma is a rare disease for which few population-based studies are available. The aim of this study was to describe the evolution of the incidence and survival of peritoneal malignant mesothelioma in France between 1989 and 2015, using data derived from the French network of cancer registries.MethodsAge world-standardized incidence rates and overall survival were calculated using data from 16 French cancer registries. Log-linear Poisson regression analysis was used to estimate the average annual percentage change in incidence rates. Overall survival was performed using age-adjusted Cox proportional hazards model.ResultsIn French men, the incidence has increased quietly over the reporting period from 0.07 to 0.10 with a maximum of 0.16 per 100,000 persons-years in 2001–2003. For women, the increase in incidence has been lower than for men over the period 1989–2015, ranging from 0.04 to 0.11. A better prognosis was associated with a diagnosis made after 2000 (HR = 1.76; p = 0.013), the epithelioid histological type (p = 0.003), and the fact of being a woman, which has a 5-year risk of death half that of men (HR = 0.55; p = 0.001), regardless of age, diagnosis period or histology.ConclusionOur results are similar to those currently available for other countries. In France, peritoneal mesothelioma remains a rare and fatal cancer with a small increase in the incidence rate since 1989 and a median survival of 1 year; it seemed to develop equally in women and men over this period of time.     

Clinical Factors Associated with Lamina Cribrosa Thickness in Patients with Glaucoma,as Measured with Swept Source Optical Coherence Tomography

PurposeTo investigate the influence of various risk factors on thinning of the lamina cribrosa (LC), as measured with swept-source optical coherence tomography (SS-OCT; Topcon).MethodsThis retrospective study comprised 150 eyes of 150 patients: 22 normal subjects, 28 preperimetric glaucoma (PPG) patients, and 100 open-angle glaucoma patients. Average LC thickness was determined in a 3 x 3 mm cube scan of the optic disc, over which a 4 x 4 grid of 16 points was superimposed (interpoint distance: 175 μm), centered on the circular Bruch’s membrane opening. The borders of the LC were defined as the visible limits of the LC pores. The correlation of LC thickness with Humphrey field analyzer-measured mean deviation (MD; SITA standard 24–2), circumpapillary retinal nerve fiber layer thickness (cpRNFLT), the vertical cup-to-disc (C/D) ratio, and tissue mean blur rate (MBR) was determined with Spearman''s rank correlation coefficient. The relationship of LC thickness with age, axial length, intraocular pressure (IOP), MD, the vertical C/D ratio, central corneal thickness (CCT), and tissue MBR was determined with multiple regression analysis. Average LC thickness and the correlation between LC thickness and MD were compared in patients with the glaucomatous enlargement (GE) optic disc type and those with non-GE disc types, as classified with Nicolela’s method.ResultsWe found that average LC thickness in the 16 grid points was significantly associated with overall LC thickness (r = 0.77, P < 0.001). The measurement time for this area was 12.4 ± 2.4 minutes. Average LC thickness in this area had a correlation coefficient of 0.57 with cpRNFLT (P < 0.001) and 0.46 (P < 0.001) with MD. Average LC thickness differed significantly between the groups (normal: 268 ± 23 μm, PPG: 248 ± 13 μm, OAG: 233 ± 20 μm). Multiple regression analysis showed that MD (β = 0.29, P = 0.013), vertical C/D ratio (β = -0.25, P = 0.020) and tissue MBR (β = 0.20, P = 0.034) were independent variables significantly affecting LC thickness, but age, axial length, IOP, and CCT were not. LC thickness was significantly lower in the GE patients (233.9 ± 17.3 μm) than the non-GE patients (243.6 ± 19.5 μm, P = 0.040). The correlation coefficient between MD and LC thickness was 0.58 (P < 0.001) in the GE patients and 0.39 (P = 0.013) in the non-GE patients.ConclusionCupping formation and tissue blood flow were independently correlated to LC thinning. Glaucoma patients with the GE disc type, who predominantly have large cupping, had lower LC thickness even with similar glaucoma severity.     

Incidence and mortality of pancreatic cancer on a rapid rise in Taiwan, 1999–2012

BackgroundAccumulating data has revealed a rapidly rising incidence of pancreatic cancer in Western countries, but convincing evidence from the East remains sparse. We aimed to quantify how the incidence and mortality rates of pancreatic malignancy changed over time in Taiwan, and to develop future projection for the next decade.MethodsThis nationwide population-based study analyzed the Taiwan National Cancer Registry and the National Cause of Death Registry to calculate the annual incidence and mortality rates of pancreatic malignancy from 1999 to 2012 in this country. The secular trend of the incidence was also examined by data from the National Health Insurance Research Database.ResultsA total of 21,986 incident cases of pancreatic cancer and 20,720 related deaths occurred during the study period. The age-standardized incidence rate increased from 3.7 per 100,000 in 1999 to 5.0 per 100,000 in 2012, with a significant rising trend (P < 0.01). The increase was nationwide, consistently across subgroups stratified by age, gender, geographic region, and urbanization. Data from the National Health Insurance Research Database corroborated the rise of incident pancreatic cancer. Mortality also increased with time, with the age-standardized rate rising from 3.5 per 100,000 in 1999 to 4.1 per 100,000 in 2012 (P < 0.01). In accordance with the incidence, the mortality trend was consistent in all subgroups. Both the incidence and mortality were projected to further increase by approximately 20% from 2012 to 2027.ConclusionThe incidence and mortality of pancreatic cancer have been rapidly rising and presumably will continue to rise in Taiwan.     

The state of the leprosy epidemic in Yunnan,China 2011–2020: A spatial and spatiotemporal analysis,highlighting areas for intervention

BackgroundDespite public health efforts to reduce the leprosy burden in Yunnan, China, leprosy remains an important public health problem in some specific areas. We analyzed the epidemiological characteristics and spatial distribution of leprosy in Yunnan, China, and provide data to guide disease prevention and control efforts.Methodology/principal findingsThe surveillance data of newly detected leprosy cases in Yunnan, China, during 2011–2020 were extracted from the LEPROSY MANAGEMANT INFORMATION SYSTEM IN CHINA (LEPMIS), and spatial distribution analysis, spatial autocorrelation analysis, and spatiotemporal scanning were performed with ArcGIS 10.6.1, GeoDa 1.8.8, and SaTScan 9.4.3 software, respectively. A total of 1907 newly detected leprosy cases were reported in Yunnan, China, during 2011–2020. The new case detection rate (NCDR) decreased from 0.62 in 2011 to 0.25 in 2020, with an annual incidence of 0.41/100,000 population. The proportions of multibacillary (MB) cases, cases in female patients, cases causing grade 2 physical disability (G2D), and cases in pediatric patients were 67.07%, 33.93%, 17.99%, and 2.83%, respectively. The number of counties with an incidence above 1/100,000 population decreased from 30 in 2011 to 8 in 2020. The Moran’s I of leprosy in Yunnan, China, during 2011–2020 ranged from 0.076 to 0.260, indicating the presence of spatial clusters. Local spatial autocorrelation (LSA) analysis showed that high-high cluster areas (hot spots) were mainly distributed in the southeastern, northern, and northwestern regions. Spatiotemporal scanning showed three clusters with high NCDRs. The probably primary clusters, occurring during January 1, 2011–December 31, 2015, covered 11 counties in the southeastern region (RR = 5.046515, LRR = 271.749664, P = 0.000).ConclusionThe number of leprosy cases in Yunnan decreased overall, although some high-NCDR regions remained. Geographic information system (GIS) analysis coupled with spatial analysis indicated regions with leprosy clusters. Continuous leprosy prevention and control strategies in Yunnan Province should be established, and interventions in high-risk regions should be prioritized and further strengthened.